Indirect effects shape species fitness in coevolved mutualistic networks.

Ecological interactions are one of the main forces that sustain Earth's biodiversity. A major challenge for studies of ecology and evolution is to determine how these interactions affect the fitness of species when we expand from studying isolated, pairwise interactions to include networks of interacting species1-4. In networks, chains of effects caused by a range of species have an indirect effect on other species they do not interact with directly, potentially affecting the fitness outcomes of a variety of ecological interactions (such as mutualism)5-7. Here we apply analytical techniques and numerical simulations to 186 empirical mutualistic networks and show how both direct and indirect effects alter the fitness of species coevolving in these networks. Although the fitness of species usually increased with the number of mutualistic partners, most of the fitness variation across species was driven by indirect effects. We found that these indirect effects prevent coevolving species from adapting to their mutualistic partners and to other sources of selection pressure in the environment, thereby decreasing their fitness. Such decreases are distributed in a predictable way within networks: peripheral species receive more indirect effects and experience higher reductions in fitness than central species. This topological effect was also evident when we analysed an empirical study of an invasion of pollination networks by honeybees. As honeybees became integrated as a central species within networks, they increased the contribution of indirect effects on several other species, reducing their fitness. Our study shows how and why indirect effects can govern the adaptive landscape of species-rich mutualistic assemblages.

Formation of giant iron oxide-copper-gold deposits by superimposed episodic hydrothermal pulses.

Iron oxide-copper-gold (IOCG) deposits are a globally important source of copper, gold and critical commodities. Despite their relevance, IOCG deposits remain an ill-defined clan, with a range of characteristics that has complicated development of the general genetic model. Here we focus on the Candelaria IOCG deposit in Chile and reveal that by using micro-textural and compositional variations in actinolite, a common alteration mineral found in many IOCG deposits, we can constrain the evolution of these systems. We demonstrate that Candelaria formed by the superposition of at least two pulses of mineralization with a late Cu-rich event overprinting and superimposed over an early, and probably higher temperature, iron oxide-apatite (IOA) mineralization event. These distinct pulses were likely caused by episodic injections of magmatic-hydrothermal fluids from crystallizing magmas at depth. Our data provide empirical evidence of grain-to-deposit scale compositional and potentially temperature changes in an IOCG system. The results support the use of actinolite chemistry as a novel approach to understand the formation of IOCG deposits and a potential tool for vectoring in exploration.

Infant Sleep Hazards and the Risk of Sudden Unexpected Death in Infancy.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the effects of infant sofa-sleeping, recent use by caregivers of alcohol, cannabis, and/or other drugs, and bed type and pillows, on the risk of sudden unexpected death in infancy (SUDI) in New Zealand. STUDY DESIGN: A nationwide prospective case-control study was implemented between March 2012 and February 2015. Data were collected during interviews with parents/caregivers. "Hazards" were defined as infant exposure to 1 or more of sofa-sleeping and recent use by caregivers of alcohol, cannabis, and other drugs. The interaction of hazards with tobacco smoking in pregnancy and bed sharing, including for very young infants, and the difference in risk for Maori and non-Maori infants, also were assessed. RESULTS: The study enrolled 132 cases and 258 controls. SUDI risk increased with infant sofa-sleeping (imputed aOR [IaOR] 24.22, 95% CI 1.65-356.40) and with hazards (IaOR 3.35, 95% CI 1.40-8.01). The SUDI risk from the combination of tobacco smoking in pregnancy and bed sharing (IaOR 29.0, 95% CI 10.10-83.33) increased with the addition of 1 or more hazards (IaOR 148.24, 95% CI 15.72-1398), and infants younger than 3 months appeared to be at greater risk (IaOR 450.61, 95% CI 26.84-7593.14). CONCLUSIONS: Tobacco smoking in pregnancy and bed sharing remain the greatest SUDI risks for infants and risk increases further in the presence of sofa-sleeping or recent caregiver use of alcohol and/or cannabis and other drugs. Continued implementation of effective, appropriate programs for smoking cessation, safe sleep, and supplying safe sleep beds is required to reduce New Zealand SUDI rates and SUDI disparity among Maori.

Genetic correlations and ecological networks shape coevolving mutualisms.

Ecological interactions shape the evolution of multiple species traits in populations. These traits are often linked to each other through genetic correlations, affecting how each trait evolves through selection imposed by interacting partners. Here, we integrate quantitative genetics, coevolutionary theory and network science to explore how trait correlations affect the coevolution of mutualistic species not only in pairs of species but also in species-rich networks across space. We show that genetic correlations may determine the pace of coevolutionary change, affect species abundances and fuel divergence among populations of the same species. However, this trait divergence promoted by genetic correlations is partially buffered by the nested structure of species-rich mutualisms. Our study, therefore, highlights how coevolution and its ecological consequences may result from conflicting processes at different levels of organisation, ranging from genes to communities.

Serological Evidence for Henipa-like and Filo-like Viruses in Trinidad Bats.

Bat-borne zoonotic pathogens belonging to the family Paramxyoviridae, including Nipah and Hendra viruses, and the family Filoviridae, including Ebola and Marburg viruses, can cause severe disease and high mortality rates on spillover into human populations. Surveillance efforts for henipaviruses and filoviruses have been largely restricted to the Old World; however, recent studies suggest a potentially broader distribution for henipaviruses and filoviruses than previously recognized. In the current study, we screened for henipaviruses and filoviruses in New World bats collected across 4 locations in Trinidad near the coast of Venezuela. Bat tissue samples were screened using previously established reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction assays. Serum were screened using a multiplex immunoassay to detect antibodies reactive with the envelope glycoprotein of viruses in the genus Henipavirus and the family Filoviridae. Serum samples were also screened by means of enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for antibodies reactive with Nipah G and F glycoproteins. Of 84 serum samples, 28 were reactive with ≥1 henipavirus glycoprotein by ≥1 serological method, and 6 serum samples were reactive against ≥1 filovirus glycoproteins. These data provide evidence of potential circulation of viruses related to the henipaviruses and filoviruses in New World bats.

The geographic mosaic of coevolution in mutualistic networks.

Ecological interactions shape adaptations through coevolution not only between pairs of species but also through entire multispecies assemblages. Local coevolution can then be further altered through spatial processes that have been formally partitioned in the geographic mosaic theory of coevolution. A major current challenge is to understand the spatial patterns of coadaptation that emerge across ecosystems through the interplay between gene flow and selection in networks of interacting species. Here, we combine a coevolutionary model, network theory, and empirical information on species interactions to investigate how gene flow and geographical variation in selection affect trait patterns in mutualistic networks. We show that gene flow has the surprising effect of favoring trait matching, especially among generalist species in species-rich networks typical of pollination and seed dispersal interactions. Using an analytical approximation of our model, we demonstrate that gene flow promotes trait matching by making the adaptive landscapes of different species more similar to each other. We use this result to show that the progressive loss of gene flow associated with habitat fragmentation may undermine coadaptation in mutualisms. Our results therefore provide predictions of how spatial processes shape the evolution of species-rich interactions and how the widespread fragmentation of natural landscapes may modify the coevolutionary process.

Left atrial volume and cardiovascular outcomes in systolic heart failure: effect of antithrombotic treatment.

AIMS: Left atrium (LA) dilation is associated with adverse cardiovascular (CV) outcomes. Blood stasis, thrombus formation and atrial fibrillation may occur, especially in heart failure (HF) patients. It is not known whether preventive antithrombotic treatment may decrease the incidence of CV events in HF patients with LA enlargement. We investigated the relationship between LA enlargement and CV outcomes in HF patients and the effect of different antithrombotic treatments. METHODS AND RESULTS: Two-dimensional echocardiography with LA volume index (LAVi) measurement was performed in 1148 patients with systolic HF from the Warfarin versus Aspirin in Reduced Ejection Fraction (WARCEF) trial. Patients were randomized to warfarin or aspirin and followed for 3.4 ± 1.7 years. While the primary aim of the trial was a composite of ischaemic stroke, death, and intracerebral haemorrhage, the present report focuses on the individual CV events, whose incidence was compared across different LAVi and treatment subgroups. After adjustment for demographics and clinical covariates, moderate or severe LA enlargement was significantly associated with total death (hazard ratio 1.6 and 2.7, respectively), CV death (HR 1.7 and 3.3), and HF hospitalization (HR 2.3 and 2.6) but not myocardial infarction (HR 1.0 and 1.4) or ischaemic stroke (1.1 and 1.5). The increased risk was observed in both patients treated with warfarin or aspirin. In warfarin-treated patients, a time in therapeutic range >60% was associated with lower event rates, and an interaction between LAVi and time in therapeutic range was observed for death (P = 0.034). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with systolic HF, moderate or severe LA enlargement is associated with death and HF hospitalization despite treatment with antithrombotic medications. The possibility that achieving a more consistent therapeutic level of anticoagulation may decrease the risk of death requires further investigation.

Indirect effects drive coevolution in mutualistic networks.

Ecological interactions have been acknowledged to play a key role in shaping biodiversity. Yet a major challenge for evolutionary biology is to understand the role of ecological interactions in shaping trait evolution when progressing from pairs of interacting species to multispecies interaction networks. Here we introduce an approach that integrates coevolutionary dynamics and network structure. Our results show that non-interacting species can be as important as directly interacting species in shaping coevolution within mutualistic assemblages. The contribution of indirect effects differs among types of mutualism. Indirect effects are more likely to predominate in nested, species-rich networks formed by multiple-partner mutualisms, such as pollination or seed dispersal by animals, than in small and modular networks formed by intimate mutualisms, such as those between host plants and their protective ants. Coevolutionary pathways of indirect effects favour ongoing trait evolution by promoting slow but continuous reorganization of the adaptive landscape of mutualistic partners under changing environments. Our results show that coevolution can be a major process shaping species traits throughout ecological networks. These findings expand our understanding of how evolution driven by interactions occurs through the interplay of selection pressures moving along multiple direct and indirect pathways.

Gene flow and metacommunity arrangement affects coevolutionary dynamics at the mutualism-antagonism interface.

Interspecific interactions are affected by community context and, as a consequence, show spatial variation in magnitude and sign. The selective forces imposed by interactions at the mutualism-antagonism interface are a consequence of the traits involved and their matching between species. If mutualistic and antagonistic communities are linked by gene flow, coevolution between a pair of interacting species is influenced by how selection varies in space. Here we investigate the effects of metacommunity arrangement, i.e. patterns of connection between communities and the number of communities, on the coevolutionary dynamics between two species for which the sign and magnitude of the interaction varies across the landscape. We quantify coevolutionary outcome as an index that can be decomposed into the contribution of intraspecific genetic diversity and interspecific interaction. We show that polymorphisms and mismatches are an expected outcome, which is influenced by spatial structure, interaction strength and the degree of gene flow. The index describes how variation is distributed within and between species, and provides information on the directionality of the mismatches and polymorphisms. Finally, we argue that depending on metacommunity arrangement, some communities have disproportionate roles in maintaining genetic diversity, with implications for the coevolution of interacting species in a fragmented landscape.

Perinatal Risk and Protective Factors for Pediatric Abusive Head Trauma: A Multicenter Case-Control Study.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate associations between factors recorded in pregnancy and the first week of life and subsequent abusive head trauma. STUDY DESIGN: Multicenter, retrospective case-control study of perinatal records from 142 cases of abusive head trauma and 550 controls, matched by date and hospital of birth from 1991 to 2010. Multiple logistic regression assessed the relationship between perinatal exposures and abusive head trauma. RESULTS: The risk of abusive head trauma decreased with increasing maternal age (OR, 0.91 per year; 95% CI 0.85-0.97) and increasing gestational age at birth (OR 0.79 per week; 95% CI 0.69-0.91). Mothers of cases were more likely to be Maori (OR 4.61; 95% CI 1.98-10.78), to be single (OR 5.10; 95% CI 1.83-14.23), have recorded social concerns (OR 4.29; 95% CI 1.32-13.91), and have missing data for antenatal care, partner status, social concerns, and substance abuse (OR 13.53; 95% CI 2.39-76.47). Case mothers were more likely not to take supplements in pregnancy (OR 3.53; 95% CI 1.30-9.54), to have membrane rupture longer than 48 hours before delivery (OR 13.01; 95% CI 2.84-59.68), and to formula feed (OR for mixed breast and formula feeding 6.06; 95% CI 2.39-15.36) before postnatal discharge (median 3 days). CONCLUSIONS: Factors associated with subsequent abusive head trauma can be identified from routine perinatal records. Targeted interventions initiated perinatally could possibly prevent some cases of abusive head trauma. However, any plans for targeted prevention strategies should consider not only those with identified risk factors but also those for which data are missing.

Outcomes from a 12-Week, Open-Label, Multicenter Clinical Trial of Teduglutide in Pediatric Short Bowel Syndrome.

OBJECTIVE: To determine safety and pharmacodynamics/efficacy of teduglutide in children with intestinal failure associated with short bowel syndrome (SBS-IF). STUDY DESIGN: This 12-week, open-label study enrolled patients aged 1-17 years with SBS-IF who required parenteral nutrition (PN) and showed minimal or no advance in enteral nutrition (EN) feeds. Patients enrolled sequentially into 3 teduglutide cohorts (0.0125 mg/kg/d [n = 8], 0.025 mg/kg/d [n = 14], 0.05 mg/kg/d [n = 15]) or received standard of care (SOC, n = 5). Descriptive summary statistics were used. RESULTS: All patients experienced ≥1 treatment-emergent adverse event; most were mild or moderate. No serious teduglutide-related treatment-emergent adverse events occurred. Between baseline and week 12, prescribed PN volume and calories (kcal/kg/d) changed by a median of -41% and -45%, respectively, with 0.025 mg/kg/d teduglutide and by -25% and -52% with 0.05 mg/kg/d teduglutide. In contrast, PN volume and calories changed by 0% and -6%, respectively, with 0.0125 mg/kg/d teduglutide and by 0% and -1% with SOC. Per patient diary data, EN volume increased by a median of 22%, 32%, and 40% in the 0.0125, 0.025, and 0.05 mg/kg/d cohorts, respectively, and by 11% with SOC. Four patients achieved independence from PN, 3 in the 0.05 mg/kg/d cohort and 1 in the 0.025 mg/kg/d cohort. Study limitations included its short-term, open-label design, and small sample size. CONCLUSIONS: Teduglutide was well tolerated in pediatric patients with SBS-IF. Teduglutide 0.025 or 0.05 mg/kg/d was associated with trends toward reductions in PN requirements and advancements in EN feeding in children with SBS-IF. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov:NCT01952080; EudraCT: 2013-004588-30.

Unravelling Darwin's entangled bank: architecture and robustness of mutualistic networks with multiple interaction types.

Trying to unravel Darwin's entangled bank further, we describe the architecture of a network involving multiple forms of mutualism (pollination by animals, seed dispersal by birds and plant protection by ants) and evaluate whether this multi-network shows evidence of a structure that promotes robustness. We found that species differed strongly in their contributions to the organization of the multi-interaction network, and that only a few species contributed to the structuring of these patterns. Moreover, we observed that the multi-interaction networks did not enhance community robustness compared with each of the three independent mutualistic networks when analysed across a range of simulated scenarios of species extinction. By simulating the removal of highly interacting species, we observed that, overall, these species enhance network nestedness and robustness, but decrease modularity. We discuss how the organization of interlinked mutualistic networks may be essential for the maintenance of ecological communities, and therefore the long-term ecological and evolutionary dynamics of interactive, species-rich communities. We suggest that conserving these keystone mutualists and their interactions is crucial to the persistence of species-rich mutualistic assemblages, mainly because they support other species and shape the network organization.

Cost-Effectiveness/Cost-Benefit Analysis of Newborn Screening for Severe Combined Immune Deficiency in Washington State.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the expected cost-effectiveness and net benefit of the recent implementation of newborn screening (NBS) for severe combined immunodeficiency (SCID) in Washington State. STUDY DESIGN: We constructed a decision analysis model to estimate the costs and benefits of NBS in an annual birth cohort of 86 600 infants based on projections of avoided infant deaths. Point estimates and ranges for input variables, including the birth prevalence of SCID, proportion detected asymptomatically without screening through family history, screening test characteristics, survival rates, and costs of screening, diagnosis, and treatment were derived from published estimates, expert opinion, and the Washington NBS program. We estimated treatment costs stratified by age of identification and SCID type (with or without adenosine deaminase deficiency). Economic benefit was estimated using values of $4.2 and $9.0 million per death averted. We performed sensitivity analyses to evaluate the influence of key variables on the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of net direct cost per life-year saved. RESULTS: Our model predicts an additional 1.19 newborn infants with SCID detected preclinically through screening, in addition to those who would have been detected early through family history, and 0.40 deaths averted annually. Our base-case model suggests an ICER of $35 311 per life-year saved, and a benefit-cost ratio of either 5.31 or 2.71. Sensitivity analyses found ICER values <$100 000 and positive net benefit for plausible assumptions on all variables. CONCLUSIONS: Our model suggests that NBS for SCID in Washington is likely to be cost-effective and to show positive net economic benefit.

Effects of conjugated estrogens/bazedoxifene on lipid and coagulation variables: a randomized placebo- and active-controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to evaluate the effects of conjugated estrogens (CE)/bazedoxifene (BZA) on lipid and coagulation variables in a randomized, double-blind, placebo- and active-controlled phase 3 study of nonhysterectomized postmenopausal women. METHODS: The Selective estrogens, Menopause, And Response to Therapy (SMART)-5 trial evaluated the efficacy and safety of CE/BZA in postmenopausal women (N = 1,843) with menopausal symptoms. Lipid (N = 1,843) and coagulation (N = 590) variables were assessed in women receiving daily CE 0.45 mg/BZA 20 mg, CE 0.625 mg/BZA 20 mg, BZA 20 mg, CE 0.45 mg/medroxyprogesterone acetate (MPA) 1.5 mg, or placebo for 12 months. RESULTS: At 12 months, CE 0.45 mg/BZA 20 mg, CE 0.625 mg/BZA 20 mg, BZA 20 mg, and CE 0.45 mg/MPA 1.5 mg decreased total cholesterol and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol compared with placebo (P < 0.01 for all). Both CE/BZA doses and CE/MPA increased high-density lipoprotein cholesterol compared with placebo (P < 0.05 for all). CE 0.45 mg/BZA 20 mg had a neutral effect on triglycerides; CE 0.625 mg/BZA 20 mg and CE/MPA increased triglycerides compared with placebo (P < 0.05). Both CE/BZA doses were associated with small but significant effects on hemostasis variables, including reductions in antithrombin, plasminogen activator inhibitor-1, and fibrinogen activity, and an increase in plasminogen activity relative to placebo at 12 months. Incidences of cardiovascular and venous thromboembolic events were similar among treatment groups. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides reassurance that CE/BZA does not adversely affect lipid metabolism or hemostatic balance. In accordance, the incidences of venous thromboembolic events and cardiovascular events in postmenopausal women are similar to those observed with placebo.

The spatial structure of antagonistic species affects coevolution in predictable ways.

A current challenge in evolutionary ecology is to assess how the spatial structure of interacting species shapes coevolution. Previous work on the geographic mosaic of coevolution has shown that coevolution depends on the spatial structure, the strength of selection, and gene flow across populations. We used spatial subgraphs and coevolutionary models to evaluate how spatial structure and the location of coevolutionary hotspots (sites in which reciprocal selection occurs) and coldspots (sites in which unidirectional selection occurs) contribute to the dynamics of coevolution and the maintenance of polymorphisms. Specifically, we developed a new approach based on the Laplacian matrices of spatial subgraphs to explore the tendency of interacting species to evolve toward stable polymorphisms. Despite the complex interplay between gene flow and the strength of reciprocal selection, simple rules drive coevolution in small groups of spatially structured interacting populations. Hotspot location and the spatial organization of coldspots are crucial for understanding patterns in the maintenance of polymorphisms. Moreover, the degree of spatial variation in the outcomes of the coevolutionary process can be predicted from the network pattern of gene flow among sites. Our work provides us with novel tools that can be used in the field or the laboratory to predict the effects of spatial structure on coevolutionary trajectories.

Genome-wide scan identifies variation in MLXIPL associated with plasma triglycerides.

We tested over 267,000 SNPs in 1,005 Northern Europeans and 248,000 in 1,006 Indian Asians for association with triglycerides and HDL cholesterol, with replication in 10,536 subjects. We found association of a nonsynonymous SNP (rs3812316, G771C, Gln241His) in MLXIPL with plasma triglyceride levels (combined P = 1.4 x 10(-10)). MLXIPL coordinates transcriptional regulation of enzymes that channel glycolytic end-products into lipogenesis and energy storage, making MLXIPL a plausible 'thrifty gene'.

Interaction intimacy affects structure and coevolutionary dynamics in mutualistic networks.

The structure of mutualistic networks provides clues to processes shaping biodiversity [1-10]. Among them, interaction intimacy, the degree of biological association between partners, leads to differences in specialization patterns [4, 11] and might affect network organization [12]. Here, we investigated potential consequences of interaction intimacy for the structure and coevolution of mutualistic networks. From observed processes of selection on mutualistic interactions, it is expected that symbiotic interactions (high-interaction intimacy) will form species-poor networks characterized by compartmentalization [12, 13], whereas nonsymbiotic interactions (low intimacy) will lead to species-rich, nested networks in which there is a core of generalists and specialists often interact with generalists [3, 5, 7, 12, 14]. We demonstrated an association between interaction intimacy and structure in 19 ant-plant mutualistic networks. Through numerical simulations, we found that network structure of different forms of mutualism affects evolutionary change in distinct ways. Change in one species affects primarily one mutualistic partner in symbiotic interactions but might affect multiple partners in nonsymbiotic interactions. We hypothesize that coevolution in symbiotic interactions is characterized by frequent reciprocal changes between few partners, but coevolution in nonsymbiotic networks might show rare bursts of changes in which many species respond to evolutionary changes in a single species.

Sudden infant death syndrome: risk factors for infants found face down differ from other SIDS cases.

OBJECTIVE: To test the hypothesis that infants with sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) found face down (FD) would have SIDS risk factors different from those found in other positions (non-face-down position, NFD). STUDY DESIGN: We used the New Zealand Cot Death Study data, a 3-year, nationwide (1987 to 1990), case-control study. Odds ratios (univariate and multivariate) for FD (n = 154) and NFD SIDS (n = 239) were estimated separately, and statistical differences between the two groups were assessed. RESULTS: Of 12 risk factors for SIDS, there were 8 with a statistically significant difference between FD and NFD infants. After adjustment for the potential confounders, younger infant age, Maori ethnicity, low birth weight, prone sleep position, use of a sheepskin, and pillow use were all associated with a greater risk of SIDS in the FD than the NFD group. Sleeping during the nighttime, maternal smoking, and bed-sharing were associated with a risk of SIDS only in the NFD group. Pacifier use was associated with a decreased risk for SIDS only in the NFD group, whereas being found with the head covered was associated with a decreased risk for SIDS for the FD group. CONCLUSIONS: Infants with SIDS in the FD position appear to be a distinct subgroup of SIDS. These differences in risk factors provide clues to mechanisms of death in both SIDS subtypes.