Repeatability and reproducibility of hunter-harvest sampling for avian influenza virus surveillance in Great Britain.

Emerging pathogens can threaten human and animal health, necessitating reliable surveillance schemes to enable preparedness. We evaluated the repeatability and reproducibility of a method developed previously during a single year at one study site. Hunter-harvested ducks and geese were sampled for avian influenza virus at three discrete locations in the UK. H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAIV) was detected in four species (mallard [Anas platyrhynchos], Eurasian teal [Anas crecca], Eurasian wigeon [Mareca penelope] and pink-footed goose [Anser brachyrhynchus]) across all three locations and two non-HPAIV H5N1, influenza A positive detections were made from a mallard and Eurasian wigeon at two locations. Virus was detected within 1-to-4 days of sampling at every location. Application of rapid diagnostic methods to samples collected from hunter-harvested waterfowl offers potential as an early warning system for the surveillance and monitoring of emerging and existing strains of avian influenza A viruses in key avian species.

High pathogenicity avian influenza: targeted active surveillance of wild birds to enable early detection of emerging disease threats.

Avian influenza (AI) is an important disease that has significant implications for animal and human health. High pathogenicity AI (HPAI) has emerged in consecutive seasons within the UK to cause the largest outbreaks recorded. Statutory measures to control outbreaks of AI virus (AIV) at poultry farms involve disposal of all birds on infected premises. Understanding of the timing of incursions into the UK could facilitate decisions on improved responses. During the autumnal migration and wintering period (autumn 2019- spring 2020), three active sampling approaches were trialled for wild bird species considered likely to be involved in captive AI outbreaks with retrospective laboratory testing undertaken to define the presence of AIV.Faecal sampling of birds (n = 594) caught during routine and responsive mist net sampling failed to detect AIV. Cloacal sampling of hunter-harvested waterfowl (n = 146) detected seven positive samples from three species with the earliest detection on the 17 October 2020. Statutory sampling first detected AIV in wild and captive birds on 3 November 2020. We conclude that hunter sourced sampling of waterfowl presents an opportunity to detect AI within the UK in advance of outbreaks on poultry farms and allow for early intervention measures to protect the national poultry flock.

Modeling current and potential distributions of mammal species using presence-only data: A case study on British deer.

AIM: Decisions on wildlife conservation, management, and epidemiological risk are best based on robust evidence. The continual improvement of species distributions, such that they can be relied upon in decision-making, is important. Here we seek to refine aspects of a generic modelling approach and improve the utility of species distribution maps. LOCATION: Great Britain (GB). METHODS: We applied a modeling framework based on hierarchical Bayesian species distribution models exploiting opportunistic occurrence records from citizen science datasets to predict both current and potential distributions for each of the six deer species known to be present in GB. Using the resulting maps, we performed a simple analysis of the overlap between species to illustrate possible contact, which we interpret as the relative risk of potential disease spread given an introduction. RESULTS: Predicted distribution maps showed good agreement with the broader scale occurrence reported by a recent national deer survey with an average True Skill Statistics and AUC of 0.69 and 0.89, respectively. Aggregation of the maps for all species highlighted regions of central and eastern England as well as parts of Scotland where extensive areas of range overlap could result in interspecific contact with consequences for risk assessments for diseases of deer. However, if populations are allowed to expand to their predicted potential, then areas of overlap, and therefore disease interspecific transmission risk, will become extensive and widespread across all of mainland Britain. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: The generic modeling approach outlined performed well across all of the deer species tested, offering a robust and reliable tool through which current and potential animal distributions can be estimated and presented. Our application, intended to inform quantitative risk assessments, demonstrates the practical use of such outputs to generate the valuable evidence required to inform policy decisions on issues such as management strategy.

Facilitating permeability of landscapes impacted by roads for protected amphibians: patterns of movement for the great crested newt.

Amphibian populations are highly vulnerable to road mortality and habitat fragmentation caused by road networks. Wildlife road tunnels are considered the most promising road mitigation measure for amphibians yet generally remain inadequately monitored, resulting in mixed success rates in the short-term and uncertain conservation benefits in the long-term. We monitored a complex multi-tunnel and fence system over five years and investigated the impact of the scheme on movement patterns of two newt species, including the largest known UK population of the great crested newt (Triturus cristatus), a European Protected Species. We used a stage descriptive approach based on capture positions to quantify newt movement patterns. Newt species successfully used the mitigation but the system constituted a bottleneck to movements from the fences to the tunnels. Crossing rates varied widely among years and were skewed towards autumn dispersal rather than spring breeding migration. There was a substantial negative bias against adult male great crested newts using the system. This study indicates that road tunnels could partially mitigate wider connectivity loss and fragmentation at the landscape scale for newt species. However, the observed bottleneck effects and seasonal bias could have population-level effects which must be better understood, especially for small populations, so that improvements can be made. Current requirements for monitoring mitigation schemes post-implementation are probably too short to assess their effectiveness in maintaining connectivity and to adequately understand their population-level impacts.

Exclusions for resolving urban badger damage problems: outcomes and consequences.

Increasing urbanisation and growth of many wild animal populations can result in a greater frequency of human-wildlife conflicts. However, traditional lethal methods of wildlife control are becoming less favoured than non-lethal approaches, particularly when problems involve charismatic species in urban areas. Eurasian badgers (Meles meles) excavate subterranean burrow systems (setts), which can become large and complex. Larger setts within which breeding takes place and that are in constant use are known as main setts. Smaller, less frequently occupied setts may also exist within the social group's range. When setts are excavated in urban environments they can undermine built structures and can limit or prevent safe use of the area by people. The most common approach to resolving these problems in the UK is to exclude badgers from the problem sett, but exclusions suffer a variable success rate. We studied 32 lawful cases of badger exclusions using one-way gates throughout England to evaluate conditions under which attempts to exclude badgers from their setts in urban environments were successful. We aimed to identify ways of modifying practices to improve the chances of success. Twenty of the 32 exclusion attempts were successful, but success was significantly less likely if a main sett was to be excluded in comparison with another type of sett and if vegetation was not completely removed from the sett surface prior to exclusion attempts. We recommend that during exclusions all vegetation is removed from the site, regardless of what type of sett is involved, and that successful exclusion of badgers from a main sett might require substantially more effort than other types of sett.

Nationwide trophic cascades: changes in avian community structure driven by ungulates.

In recent decades, many ungulate populations have changed dramatically in abundance, resulting in cascading effects across ecosystems. However, studies of such effects are often limited in their spatial and temporal scope. Here, we contrast multi-species composite population trends of deer-sensitive and deer-tolerant woodland birds at a national scale, across Britain. We highlight the divergent fates of these two groups between 1994 and 2011, and show a striking association between the calculated divergence and a composite population trend of woodland deer. Our results demonstrate the link between changes in deer populations and changes in bird communities. In a period when composite population trends for deer increased by 46%, the community population trend across deer-sensitive birds (those dependent on understory vegetation) declined much more than the community trend for deer-tolerant birds. Our findings suggest that ongoing changes in the populations of herbivorous ungulates in many countries worldwide may help explain patterns of community restructuring at other trophic levels. Ungulate impacts on other taxa may require more consideration by conservation practitioners than they currently receive.

Detectability counts when assessing populations for biodiversity targets.

Efficient, practical and accurate estimates of population parameters are a necessary basis for effective conservation action to meet biodiversity targets. The brown hare is representative of many European farmland species: historically widespread and abundant but having undergone rapid declines as a result of agricultural intensification. As a priority species in the UK Biodiversity Action Plan, it has national targets for population increase that are part of wider national environmental indicators. Previous research has indicated that brown hare declines have been greatest in pastural landscapes and that gains might be made by focussing conservation effort there. We therefore used hares in pastural landscapes to examine how basic changes in survey methodology can affect the precision of population density estimates and related these to national targets for biodiversity conservation in the UK. Line transects for hares carried out at night resulted in higher numbers of detections, had better-fitting detection functions and provided more robust density estimates with lower effort than those during the day, due primarily to the increased probability of detection of hares at night and the nature of hare responses to the observer. Hare spring densities varied widely within a single region, with a pooled mean of 20.6 hares km(-2), significantly higher than the reported national average of hares in pastures of 3.3 hares km(-2). The high number of encounters allowed us to resolve hare densities at site, season and year scales. We demonstrate how survey conduct can impact on data quantity and quality with implications for setting and monitoring biodiversity targets. Our case study of the brown hare provides evidence that for wildlife species with low detectability, large scale volunteer-based monitoring programmes, either species specific or generalist, might be more successfully and efficiently carried out by a small number of trained personnel able to employ methods that maximise detectability.

Estimating the risk of cattle exposure to tuberculosis posed by wild deer relative to badgers in England and Wales.

Wild deer populations in Great Britain are expanding in range and probably in numbers, and relatively high prevalence of bovine tuberculosis (bTB, caused by infection with Mycobacterium bovis) in deer occurs locally in parts of southwest England. To evaluate the M. bovis exposure risk posed to cattle by wild deer relative to badgers in England and Wales, we constructed and parameterized a quantitative risk model with the use of information from the literature (on deer densities, activity patterns, bTB epidemiology, and pathology) and contemporary data on deer, cattle, and badger (Meles meles) distribution and abundance. The median relative risk score for each of the four deer species studied--red (Cervus elaphus), fallow (Dama dama), and roe (Capreolus capreolus) deer, and muntjac (Muntiacus reevesi)--was lower than unity (the relative risk set for badgers, the putative main wildlife reservoir of M. bovis in England and Wales). However, the 95th percentiles associated with risk estimates were large, and the upper limits for all four deer species exceeded unity. Although M. bovis exposure risks to cattle from deer at pasture are likely to be lower than those from badgers across most areas of England and Wales where cattle are affected by bTB because these areas coincide with high-density badger populations but not high-density deer populations, we predict the presence of localized areas where relative risks posed by deer may be considerable. Moreover, wherever deer are infected, risks to cattle may be additive to those posed by badgers. There are considerable knowledge gaps associated with bTB in deer, badgers, and cattle, and data available for model parameterization were generally of low quality and high variability, and consequently model output were subject to some uncertainty. Improved estimates of the proportion of time that deer of each species spend at pasture, the likelihood and magnitude of M. bovis excretion, and local badger and deer densities appear most important for improving estimates of relative risk in this system.