A Multicenter Study of the Causes and Consequences of Optimistic Expectations About Prognosis by Surrogate Decision-Makers in ICUs.

OBJECTIVES: Optimistic expectations about prognosis by surrogate decision-makers in ICUs are common, but there are few data about the causes and clinical consequences. Our objective was to determine the causes of optimistic expectations about prognosis among surrogates and whether it is associated with more use of life support at the end of life. DESIGN: Prospective, multicenter cohort study from 2009 to 2012. SETTING: Twelve ICUs from multiple regions of the United States. SUBJECTS: The surrogates and physicians of 275 incapacitated ICU patients at high risk of death. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Surrogates and physicians completed a validated instrument assessing their prognostic expectations for hospital survival. We determined the proportion of surrogates with optimistic expectations, defined as a prognostic estimate that was at least 20% more optimistic than the physician's, then determined how frequently this arose from surrogates miscomprehending the physicians' prognosis versus holding more hopeful beliefs compared with the physician. We used multivariable regression to examine whether optimistic expectations were associated with length of stay, stratified by survival status, and time to withdrawal of life support among nonsurvivors. Overall, 45% of surrogates (95% CI, 38-51%) held optimistic expectations about prognosis, which arose from a combination of misunderstanding the physician's prognostic expectations and from holding more hopeful beliefs compared with the physician. Optimistic expectations by surrogates were associated with significantly longer duration of ICU treatment among nonsurvivors before death (ß coefficient = 0.44; 95% CI, 0.05-0.83; p = 0.027), corresponding to a 56% longer ICU stay. This difference was associated with a significantly longer time to withdrawal of life support among dying patients whose surrogates had optimistic prognostic expectations compared with those who did not (ß coefficient = 0.61; 95% CI, 0.16-1.07; p = 0.009). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalent optimism about prognosis among surrogates in ICUs arises both from surrogates' miscomprehension of physicians' prognostications and from surrogates holding more hopeful beliefs. This optimism is associated with longer duration of life support at the end of life.

Amyloid-Beta Deposition is Associated with Increased Medial Temporal Lobe Activation during Memory Encoding in the Cognitively Normal Elderly.

BACKGROUND: Much is unknown about changes that occur in the brain in the years preceding the cognitive and functional impairment associated with Alzheimer disease (AD). This period before mild cognitive impairment is present has been referred to as preclinical AD, and is thought to begin with amyloid-beta deposition and then progress to neurodegeneration and functional brain circuit alterations. Prior studies have shown that there is increased medial temporal lobe activation on functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) early in the course of mild cognitive impairment. It is unknown, however, whether this altered fMRI activity precedes cognitive impairment. The purpose of this study is to address this question using Pittsburgh Compound-B (PiB) imaging and fMRI in a sample of cognitively normal older adults. METHODS: Forty-four cognitively normal older adults underwent both PiB imaging and fMRI with a face-name memory task: 21 were classified as PiB(+) and 23 were PiB(-). Additionally, thorough cognitive and neuropsychological test batteries were administered outside the scanner. The main outcome measure in this study is fMRI activation in the medial temporal lobe during a face-name memory-encoding task. RESULTS: PiB(+) subjects showed higher fMRI activation during the memory task in the hippocampus relative to PiB(-) participants. CONCLUSIONS: The increased medial temporal lobe activation in preclinical AD, observed in this study, may serve as an early biomarker of neurodegeneration. Future studies are needed to clarify whether this functional biomarker can stratify AD risk among PiB(+) older adults.

Intensive care unit readmission during childhood after preterm birth with respiratory failure.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the incidence and risk factors for readmission to the intensive care unit (ICU) among preterm infants who required mechanical ventilation at birth. STUDY DESIGN: We studied preterm newborns (birth weight 500-1250 g) who required mechanical ventilation at birth and were enrolled in a multicenter trial of inhaled nitric oxide therapy. Patients were assessed up to 4.5 years of age via annual in-person evaluations and structured telephone interviews. Univariate and multivariable analyses of baseline and birth hospitalization predictors of ICU readmission were performed. RESULTS: Of 512 subjects providing follow-up data, 58% were readmitted to the hospital (51% of these had multiple readmissions, averaging 3.9 readmissions per subject), 19% were readmitted to an ICU, and 12% required additional mechanical ventilation support. In univariate analyses, ICU readmission was more common among male subjects (OR 2.01; 95% CI 1.27-3.18), infants with grade 3-4 intracranial hemorrhage (OR 2.13; 95% CI 1.23-3.69), increasing duration of birth hospitalization (OR 1.01 per day; 95% CI 1.00-1.02), and prolonged oxygen therapy (OR 1.01 per day; 95% CI 1.00-1.01). In the first year after birth hospitalization, children readmitted to an ICU incurred greater health care costs (median $69,700 vs $30,200 for subjects admitted to the ward and $9600 for subjects never admitted). CONCLUSIONS: Small preterm infants who were mechanically ventilated at birth have substantial risk for readmission to an ICU and late mechanical ventilation, require extensive health care resources, and incur high treatment costs.