Total nitrogen and phosphorus loads in surface runoff from urban land use (city of Lublin) under climate change.

An expansion of impervious surfaces in urban areas leads to increases of nutrient loads discharged with the surface runoff to receivers. A study of a different density of urban development impact on total nitrogen (TN) and phosphorus (TP) loads from the city of Lublin (eastern Poland) with the use of the SWAT (Soil & Water Assessment Tool) model was performed. To distinguish between areas with high and low density of urban development (UHD and ULD), a special analysis of hydrological parameters has been proposed. Moreover, to investigate the impact of climate change, four variant scenarios were taken into account, combining the RCP (representative concentration pathway) 4.5 and 8.5 forecasts and the adopted time horizons (2026-2035 and 2046-2055). The results showed a much higher share of TN and TP from UHD compared to ULD (86%-32 022 kg/year and 89%-2574 kg/year, respectively). In addition, the variant scenarios showed that the forecasted increase in precipitation and temperature will result in increased loads of nutrients from UHD and ULD up to 30%. Furthermore, the current increase of inhabitant number, due to the Ukrainian war migration and the common tendency to convert agricultural land to residential areas, could contribute to further expansion of UHD and ULD areas and an additional increase of nutrient loads.

Estimation of nutrient loads with the use of mass-balance and modelling approaches on the Welna River catchment example (central Poland).

Nitrogen and phosphorus budgeting is considered to be a key tool for policy makers and stakeholders when dealing with nutrient contamination issues, however no unified method has been employed in countries affected by this eutrophication problem. The current study offers a detailed insight into the estimations of nutrient loads and their distribution between different sources for a middle-sized agricultural catchment, with the use of two approaches: mass balance (static) and modelling (dynamic). Both methods revealed similar contributions of analysed nutrient sources, although the final estimates in the chosen calculation profile were divergent due to the various reasons related to the methods' specificity. The advantages and disadvantages of both approaches have been specified in our study, and a hybrid solution on a local and country wide scale has been proposed.

Biomass Production Potential in a River under Climate Change Scenarios.

Excessive production of biomass, in times of intensification of agriculture and climate change, is again becoming one of the biggest environmental issues. Identification of sources and effects of this phenomenon in a river catchment in the space-time continuum has been supported by advanced environmental modules combined on a digital platform (Macromodel DNS/SWAT). This tool enabled the simulation of nutrient loads and chlorophyll "a" for the Nielba River catchment (central-western Poland) for the biomass production potential (defined here as a TN:TP ratio) analysis. Major differences have been observed between sections of the Nielba River with low biomass production in the upper part, controlled by TN:TP ratios over 65, and high chlorophyll "a" concentrations in the lower part, affected by biomass transport for the flow-through lakes. Under the long and short-term RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios, this pattern will be emphasized. The obtained results showed that unfavorable biomass production potential will be maintained in the upper riverine sections due to a further increase in phosphorus loads induced by precipitation growth. Precipitation alone will increase biomass production, while precipitation combined with temperature can even enhance this production in the existing hot spots.

Climate change impacts on contaminant loads delivered with sediment yields from different land use types in a Carpathian basin.

Soil runoff and sediment transport are considered as an important vector for particle-bound contaminant transfer from source to receiving waters. Under changing climate conditions and rapid basin development, identification of sediment origins is critical for planning further action to reduce erosion effects, and further pollution to surface waters. The goal of this study was to distinguish sediment sources in a Carpathian basin (Wolnica River, southern Poland) and to perform source-oriented contaminant load estimations. Sediment yields (SYLD) and land use specific sediment yields (LUSY) were modeled with the use of the Macromodel DNS/SWAT (Discharge-Nutrients-Sea/Soil and Water Assessment Tool). Sorting of sediment sources was performed by the fingerprinting method using variability of the geochemical composition of soils (Pb, Zn, Cd, Cu, Mn, Ni, Fe, Hg, total N and P, Σ16 PAHs, and 137Cs) of four land use (LU) types: arable lands (A), grasslands (G), residential areas (R), and forests (F). Statistical analysis revealed six metals (Pb, Zn, Cd, Cu, Ni, and Hg) as fingerprint properties providing the best source discrimination in this basin. The contribution of particular land use origin assessed with the use of the mixing model varied in the range of 20-30%. Finally, estimation of land use specific contaminant loads in suspended sediments was performed as a result of a modeling and sediment fingerprinting combination. The final estimates revealed yearly LUSY values varying between 716 t/y for A, 12 t/y for F, and metal loads from 31 kg/y for Zn to values below 100 g/y for Cd and Hg. Long-term predictions (2046-2055) of the metal loads revealed an increase by 75% under the combined RCP 8.5 climate change and land use scenarios. These findings are of great value for land management in the Carpathian basins, especially with regards to the predicted increase of forest cover which significantly alters contaminant signals conveyed through the system.

A macromodel dns/swat dataset for the sediment yield analysis in the raba river basin (Carpathian mts.).

A database has been created as a result of the Raba River basin (Carpathian Mts., Poland) mapping/projection in the Macromodel DNS/SWAT. The sediment yield simulations (SYLD) in each of the 36 designated sub-basins have been performed, taking also into account seasonal variability. The model subsequently has been used as a reference/baseline for subsequent variant scenarios, simulating forecasted changes in the environment. The generated data ultimately allowed for creation of the current dataset. The impact of 20 variant scenarios, simulating forecasted climate and land use changes, on the sediment yield values was analyzed. The applied scenarios took into account various possibilities, from hypothetical ones, where only one parameter has been changed, to combined ones, which included simultaneous change of selected parameters. Short-term (2021-2050) and long-term (2071-2100) time horizons have also been included in this analysis. Sediment yield values and their variability, depending on the season, can be successfully used as reference values for the other mountain and sub-mountainous catchments, both in the Carpathian Mts., and throughout central Europe. Due to the permanent lack of monitoring data on the sediment yields, not only in Poland, the presented database is a valuable source of information. Moreover, spatial and temporal predictions of sediment yield changes are necessary to decide on actions which should be taken to reduce impact of climate changes at the basin scale. This data can be also used as a basis for further research related to the transport of pollutants adsorbed on sediment particles.

[Evaluation of the effectiveness of endovascular embolization for the treatment of ruptured cerebral aneurysms]. / Ocena skutecznosci embolizacji wewnatrznaczyniowej w leczeniu peknietych tetniaków mózgu.

Endovascular embolization of ruptured intracranial aneurysms is a relatively new and still developing technique, therefore its efficiency and risks should be assessed recurrently, including also results obtained in national centers. AIM: The aim of the study was to present a synthetic review of the literature, which, including the data published by the Polish centers, typify the global assessment of the effectiveness and early complication of endovascular embolization in patients with ruptured brain aneurysms. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Our review of the literature includes 24 papers listed in PubMed and Medline, including also two Polish case series. The following data were extracted from the publications and compiled into global characteristics of a case series: basic characteristic of the study group, neurological status on admission, feasibility of procedure, incidence of complications and their type, outcome at discharge and intraoperative morbidity and mortality. RESULTS: Effective embolization was feasible in 94.4% of patients. Total occlusion of the cerebral aneurysm (99-100%) during initial procedure was achieved in 60.7% of patients. Intraoperative complications occurred in 12.6% of individuals. The most frequent type of intraoperative complication was thromboembolism, which occurred in 6%. As much as 65.2% of patients scored 4 or 5 in GOS on discharge. CONCLUSIONS: Endovascular embolization is highly effective in the treatment of ruptured cerebral aneurysms, featured also by a low rate of intra-procedural complications. The majority of patients are discharged in good shape and neurological status, scoring 4-5 in GOS.

Soil and water assessment tool model calibration results for different catchment sizes in poland.

The watershed model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) can be used to implement the requirements of international agreements that Poland has ratified. Among these requirements are the establishment of catchment-based, rather than administrative-based, management plans and spatial information systems. Furthermore, Polish law requires that management of water resources be based on catchment systems. This article explores the use of the SWAT model in the implementation of catchment-based water management in Poland. Specifically, the impacts of basin size on calibration and on the results of the simulation process were analyzed. SWAT was set up and calibrated for three Polish watersheds of varying sizes: (i) Gasawka, a small basin (>593.7 km), (ii) Rega, a medium-sized basin (2766.8 km), and (iii) Warta, a large basin (54,500 km) representing about 17.4% of Polish territory. The results indicated that the size of the catchment has an impact on the calibration process and simulation outputs. Several factors influenced by the size of the catchment affected the modeling results. Among these factors are the number of measurement points within the basin and the length of the measuring period and data quality at checkpoints as determined by the position of the measuring station. It was concluded that the SWAT model is a suitable tool for the implementation of catchment-based water management in Poland regardless of watershed size.