Mortality attributable to PM2.5 from wildland fires in California from 2008 to 2018.

In California, wildfire risk and severity have grown substantially in the last several decades. Research has characterized extensive adverse health impacts from exposure to wildfire-attributable fine particulate matter (PM2.5), but few studies have quantified long-term outcomes, and none have used a wildfire-specific chronic dose-response mortality coefficient. Here, we quantified the mortality burden for PM2.5 exposure from California fires from 2008 to 2018 using Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system wildland fire PM2.5 estimates. We used a concentration-response function for PM2.5, applying ZIP code-level mortality data and an estimated wildfire-specific dose-response coefficient accounting for the likely toxicity of wildfire smoke. We estimate a total of 52,480 to 55,710 premature deaths are attributable to wildland fire PM2.5 over the 11-year period with respect to two exposure scenarios, equating to an economic impact of $432 to $456 billion. These findings extend evidence on climate-related health impacts, suggesting that wildfires account for a greater mortality and economic burden than indicated by earlier studies.

Short-Term total and wildfire fine particulate matter exposure and work loss in California.

BACKGROUND: Few studies investigated the impact of particulate matter (PM2.5) on some symptom exacerbations that are not perceived as severe enough to search for medical assistance. We aimed to study the association of short-term daily total PM2.5 exposure with work loss due to sickness among adults living in California. METHODS: We included 44,544 adult respondents in the workforce from 2015 to 2018 California Health Interview Survey data. Daily total PM2.5 concentrations were linked to respondents' home addresses from continuous spatial surfaces of PM2.5 generated by a geostatistical surfacing algorithm. We estimated the effect of a 2-week average of daily total PM2.5 exposure on work loss using logistic regression models. RESULTS: About 1.69% (weighted percentage) of adult respondents reported work loss in the week before the survey interview. The odds ratio of work loss was 1.45 (odds ratio [OR] = 1.45, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.03, 2.03) when a 2-week average of daily total PM2.5 exposure was higher than 12 µg/m3. The OR for work loss was 1.05 (95% CI: 0.98, 1.13) for each 2.56ug/m3 increase in the 2-week average of daily total PM2.5 exposure, and became stronger among those who were highly exposed to wildfire smoke (OR = 1.06, 95% CI: 1.00, 1.13), compared to those with lower wildfire smoke exposure (OR = 1.04, 95% CI: 0.79, 1.39). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that short-term ambient PM2.5 exposure is positively associated with work loss due to sickness and the association was stronger among those with higher wildfire smoke exposure. It also indicated that the current federal and state PM2.5 standards (annual average of 12 µg/m3) could be further strengthened to protect the health of the citizens of California.

An evaluation of empirical and statistically based smoke plume injection height parametrisations used within air quality models.

Air quality models are used to assess the impact of smoke from wildland fires, both prescribed and natural, on ambient air quality and human health. However, the accuracy of these models is limited by uncertainties in the parametrisation of smoke plume injection height (PIH) and its vertical distribution. We compared PIH estimates from the plume rise method (Briggs) in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modelling system with observations from the 2013 California Rim Fire and 2017 prescribed burns in Kansas. We also examined PIHs estimated using alternative plume rise algorithms, model grid resolutions and temporal burn profiles. For the Rim Fire, the Briggs method performed as well or better than the alternatives evaluated (mean bias of less than ±5-20% and root mean square error lower than 1000 m compared with the alternatives). PIH estimates for the Kansas prescribed burns improved when the burn window was reduced from the standard default of 12 h to 3 h. This analysis suggests that meteorological inputs, temporal allocation and heat release are the primary drivers for accurately modelling PIH.

Wildfire, Smoke Exposure, Human Health, and Environmental Justice Need to be Integrated into Forest Restoration and Management.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Increasing wildfire size and severity across the western United States has created an environmental and social crisis that must be approached from a transdisciplinary perspective. Climate change and more than a century of fire exclusion and wildfire suppression have led to contemporary wildfires with more severe environmental impacts and human smoke exposure. Wildfires increase smoke exposure for broad swaths of the US population, though outdoor workers and socially disadvantaged groups with limited adaptive capacity can be disproportionally exposed. Exposure to wildfire smoke is associated with a range of health impacts in children and adults, including exacerbation of existing respiratory diseases such as asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, worse birth outcomes, and cardiovascular events. Seasonally dry forests in Washington, Oregon, and California can benefit from ecological restoration as a way to adapt forests to climate change and reduce smoke impacts on affected communities. RECENT FINDINGS: Each wildfire season, large smoke events, and their adverse impacts on human health receive considerable attention from both the public and policymakers. The severity of recent wildfire seasons has state and federal governments outlining budgets and prioritizing policies to combat the worsening crisis. This surging attention provides an opportunity to outline the actions needed now to advance research and practice on conservation, economic, environmental justice, and public health interests, as well as the trade-offs that must be considered. Scientists, planners, foresters and fire managers, fire safety, air quality, and public health practitioners must collaboratively work together. This article is the result of a series of transdisciplinary conversations to find common ground and subsequently provide a holistic view of how forest and fire management intersect with human health through the impacts of smoke and articulate the need for an integrated approach to both planning and practice.

A multi-analysis approach for estimating regional health impacts from the 2017 Northern California wildfires.

Smoke impacts from large wildfires are mounting, and the projection is for more such events in the future as the one experienced October 2017 in Northern California, and subsequently in 2018 and 2020. Further, the evidence is growing about the health impacts from these events which are also difficult to simulate. Therefore, we simulated air quality conditions using a suite of remotely-sensed data, surface observational data, chemical transport modeling with WRF-CMAQ, one data fusion, and three machine learning methods to arrive at datasets useful to air quality and health impact analyses. To demonstrate these analyses, we estimated the health impacts from smoke impacts during wildfires in October 8-20, 2017, in Northern California, when over 7 million people were exposed to Unhealthy to Very Unhealthy air quality conditions. We investigated using the 5-min available GOES-16 fire detection data to simulate timing of fire activity to allocate emissions hourly for the WRF-CMAQ system. Interestingly, this approach did not necessarily improve overall results, however it was key to simulating the initial 12-hr explosive fire activity and smoke impacts. To improve these results, we applied one data fusion and three machine learning algorithms. We also had a unique opportunity to evaluate results with temporary monitors deployed specifically for wildfires, and performance was markedly different. For example, at the permanent monitoring locations, the WRF-CMAQ simulations had a Pearson correlation of 0.65, and the data fusion approach improved this (Pearson correlation = 0.95), while at the temporary monitor locations across all cases, the best Pearson correlation was 0.5. Overall, WRF-CMAQ simulations were biased high and the geostatistical methods were biased low. Finally, we applied the optimized PM2.5 exposure estimate in an exposure-response function. Estimated mortality attributable to PM2.5 exposure during the smoke episode was 83 (95% CI: 0, 196) with 47% attributable to wildland fire smoke.Implications: Large wildfires in the United States and in particular California are becoming increasingly common. Associated with these large wildfires are air quality and health impact to millions of people from the smoke. We simulated air quality conditions using a suite of remotely-sensed data, surface observational data, chemical transport modeling, one data fusion, and three machine learning methods to arrive at datasets useful to air quality and health impact analyses from the October 2017 Northern California wildfires. Temporary monitors deployed for the wildfires provided an important model evaluation dataset. Total estimated regional mortality attributable to PM2.5 exposure during the smoke episode was 83 (95% confidence interval: 0, 196) with 47% of these deaths attributable to the wildland fire smoke. This illustrates the profound effect that even a 12-day exposure to wildland fire smoke can have on human health.

The impact of US wildland fires on ozone and particulate matter: a comparison of measurements and CMAQ model predictions from 2008 to 2012.

Wildland fire emissions are routinely estimated in the US Environmental Protection Agency's National Emissions Inventory, specifically for fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and precursors to ozone (O3); however, there is a large amount of uncertainty in this sector. We employ a brute-force zero-out sensitivity method to estimate the impact of wildland fire emissions on air quality across the contiguous US using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modelling system. These simulations are designed to assess the importance of wildland fire emissions on CMAQ model performance and are not intended for regulatory assessments. CMAQ ver. 5.0.1 estimated that fires contributed 11% to the mean PM2.5 and less than 1% to the mean O3 concentrations during 2008-2012. Adding fires to CMAQ increases the number of 'grid-cell days' with PM2.5 above 35 µg m-3 by a factor of 4 and the number of grid-cell days with maximum daily 8-h average O3 above 70 ppb by 14%. Although CMAQ simulations of specific fires have improved with the latest model version (e.g. for the 2008 California wildfire episode, the correlation r = 0.82 with CMAQ ver. 5.0.1 v. r = 0.68 for CMAQ ver. 4.7.1), the model still exhibits a low bias at higher observed concentrations and a high bias at lower observed concentrations. Given the large impact of wildland fire emissions on simulated concentrations of elevated PM2.5 and O3, improvements are recommended on how these emissions are characterised and distributed vertically in the model.

Performance on the Balance Error Scoring System Decreases After Fatigue.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the immediate effects of a whole-body fatigue protocol on performance of the Balance Error Scoring System (BESS), a postural-stability test commonly used as part of a concussion-assessment battery. DESIGN AND SETTING: Subjects were assigned to a fatigue or control group and were assessed before and immediately after a 20-minute fatigue protocol or rest period. SUBJECTS: Fourteen fatigue subjects and 13 control subjects participated in this study. All subjects were male and free of vestibular disorders, and none had suffered a mild head injury or lower extremity injury in the preceding 6 months, as described through self-report. MEASUREMENTS: We measured performance on the BESS for 9 stance-surface conditions and summed each condition to obtain a total score. Using the Borg scale, we also measured ratings of perceived exertion before, during, and after the fatigue protocol or rest period. RESULTS: We found a significant increase in total errors from pretest to posttest in the fatigue group (14.36 +/- 4.73 versus 16.93 +/- 4.32), a significant decrease in errors in the control group (13.32 +/- 3.77 versus 11.08 +/- 3.88), and a significant difference between groups on the posttest. The rating of perceived exertion scores were significantly different between the fatigue and control groups at the middle (13.29 +/- 1.59 versus 6.23 +/- 0.83) and end (15.86 +/- 2.38 versus 6.15 +/- 0.55) of the fatigue or rest period. CONCLUSIONS: The BESS error scores increased immediately after the fatigue protocol, demonstrating that balance ability diminished. Clinicians who use the BESS as part of their sideline assessment for concussion should not administer the test immediately after a concussion due to the effects of fatigue.