ABSTRACT
Prior to the emergence of the Omicron variant, many cities in China had been able to maintain a "Zero-COVID" policy. They were able to achieve this without blanket city-wide lockdown and through widespread testing and an extensive set of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as mask wearing, contact tracing, and social distancing. We wanted to examine the effectiveness of such a policy in containing SARS-CoV-2 in the early stage of the pandemic. Therefore, we developed a fully stochastic, spatially structured, agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 ancestral strain and reconstructed the Beijing Xinfadi outbreak through computational simulations. We found that screening for symptoms and among high-risk populations served as methods to discover cryptic community transmission in the early stage of the outbreak. Effective contact tracing could greatly reduce transmission. Targeted community lockdown and temporal mobility restriction could slow down the spatial spread of the virus, with much less of the population being affected. Population-wide mass testing could further improve the speed at which the outbreak is contained. Our analysis suggests that the containment of SARS-CoV-2 ancestral strains was certainly possible. Outbreak suppression and containment at the beginning of the pandemic, before the virus had the opportunity to undergo extensive adaptive evolution with increasing fitness in the human population, could be much more cost-effective in averting the overall pandemic disease burden and socioeconomic cost.
ABSTRACT
Objective To explore the association between the daily intake of alcohol and blood pressure in Chinese.Methods With the baseline data of the Qingdao Port Health Study,all subjects aged 18 to 54 yrs including all in-service and retired employees in Qingdao port were selected and divided into seven groups according to their daily intake of alcohol: groups of 0,0～,5～,10～,20～,40～ and 60～g alcohol/d,also stratified by ages.The amount of alcohol intake was assessed by a questionnaire.The cross-sectional association between blood pressure and intakes of alcohol was analyzed with general linear model and Logistic regression.Results In the groups of 25～34,35～44,45～54 yrs old both before and after adjustment,systolic and diastolic blood pressure were linearly increased with the amount of alcohol intake from the 0 g/d group to 60～g/d group.In the group of 18～24 yrs old,there was no obvious relationship between BP and alcohol intake.Logistic regression model showed that odds ratios in the groups of 0～g/d,5～g/d,10～g/d,20～g/d,40～g/d and 60～g/d versus the abstainers was 1.05,1.14,1.08,1.24,1.30 and 2.02,respectively,and the prevalence of hypertension in the 20～g/d group was significantly higher than that in the 0 g/d group and groups of low or moderate alcohol intake.Conclusion An increasing and linear relationship between alcohol consumption and blood pressure was established,and alcohol intake ≥20 g /d is an independent risk factor for hypertension.