A Hybrid Approach Based on Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average and Neural Network Autoregressive Models to Predict Scorpion Sting Incidence in El Oued Province, Algeria, From 2005 to 2020.

BACKGROUND: This study was designed to find the best statistical approach to scorpion sting predictions. Study Design: A retrospective study. METHODS: Multiple regression, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), neural network autoregressive (NNAR), and hybrid SARIMA-NNAR models were developed to predict monthly scorpion sting cases in El Oued province. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were used to quantitatively compare different models. RESULTS: In general, 96909 scorpion stings were recorded in El Oued province from 2005-2020. The incidence rate experienced a gradual decrease until 2012 and since then slight fluctuations have been noted. Scorpion stings occurred throughout the year with peaks in September followed by July and August and troughs in December and January. Sting cases were not evenly distributed across demographic groups; the most affected age group was 15-49 years, and males were more likely to be stung. Of the reported deaths, more than half were in children 15 and younger. Scorpion's activity was conditioned by climate factors, and temperature had the highest effect. The SARIMA(2,0,2)(1,1,1)12, NNAR(1,1,2)12, and SARIMA(2,0,2)(1,1,1)12-NNAR(1,1,2)12 were selected as the best-fitting models. The RMSE, MAE, and MAPE of the SARIMA and SARIMA-NNAR models were lower than those of the NNAR model in fitting and forecasting; however, the NNAR model could produce better predictive accuracy. CONCLUSION: The NNAR model is preferred for short-term monthly scorpion sting predictions. An in-depth understanding of the epidemiologic triad of scorpionism and the development of predictive models ought to establish enlightened, informed, better-targeted, and more effective policies.

Development of analytical methods GC-MS vs LC-UV for the serum monitoring of an inflammatory glycotoxin (methylglyoxal): A new biomarker of bovine hepatobiliary distomatosis.

Two analytical methods; high performance liquid chromatography and gas chromatography were used to determine the content of 2-methylquinoxaline, a methylglyoxal-derived agent in sera from cattle with fascioliasis. Methylglyoxal is a highly mutagenic and cytotoxic reactive dicarbonyl compound formed by non-enzymatic fragmentation of triose phosphate GAP and DHAP during glycolysis which regularly contributes to repositioning the energetic balance between physiological and pathological situations. The aim of this study was to propose the MGO as a new biomarker in the bovine fasciolosis. Strongly infected animals showed a correlation between the relatively high levels of Fasciola hepatica anti-f2 antibody and methylglyoxal compared to unharmed animals. Also, an acute hyperglycemia was recorded and closely related to hepatic parenchyma hyperplasia, inflammation, bile ducts obstruction and scléro-fibrous foci formation.Unlike HPLC, which has shown analytical flaws and irregularities, GC-MS remains an excellent diagnostic tool for detecting and quantifying methylglyoxal in biological fluids. The developed method has been validated under FDA guidelines. A full scan-range was set from m/z 39 to 144/999 and the molecular weight of the 2-methylquinoxaline was identified according to NIST Database and ES. Methylglyoxal was the only analyte successfully quantified in a relatively short run time. It was linear over a concentration range of 0.057-5.7  µg.ml-1with mean recoveries and RSD of 118% and 3.63% respectively. The intra and inter-day assays were satisfying and not exceed 3.00%. Results reflect the degree of precision of our method and indicate that MGO was an important contributor to understand the hepatic failure independently of other serum markers.

Epidemiological study of sausage in Algeria: Prevalence, quality assessment, and antibiotic resistance of Staphylococcus aureus isolates and the risk factors associated with consumer habits affecting foodborne poisoning.

AIM: The first aim was to assess the quality and determine the prevalence and antibiotic susceptibility of Staphylococcus aureus contamination of raw sausage sold in ten municipalities in the Northeast of Algeria. Second, a consumer sausage purchasing survey was designed to investigate potential risk factors that have a significant association with the occurrence of foodborne poisoning among sausage consumers' behavior and its relationship with independent variables. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 230 butcheries from ten departments (Daira) of Algiers with more than 40 municipalities were included randomly in these studies to collect raw sausage samples and to distribute 700 structured questionnaires to meat consumers. Our two studies were conducted at the same time, between June 2016 and April 2018. Sausage samples were taken once per butchery to estimate the prevalence of S. aureus contamination and therefore deduct the quality assessment of raw sausage (Merguez) sold in Algiers, Algeria. All isolated strains were tested for their antimicrobial resistance. Furthermore, questionnaires were distributed and used to collect information on various aspects of sausage consumption and foodborne disease. The data collected were analyzed with different statistical approaches, such as the Chi-square test and the odds ratio (OR) univariable logistic model. All the risk factors were analyzed by studying their association with the occurrence of consumers who claimed to have food poisoning after consuming sausage. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of S. aureus contamination from sausages was 25.22% (n=58/230). Over 83.33% of strains showed resistance to at least one of the antibiotics tested. The most important was for tetracycline (58%) followed by fosfomycin (33%), penicillin G (25%), and oxacillin (36%). Moreover, the multiple antibiotic resistance (MAR) index include 20 profiles with MAR >0.2. Out of the 440 meat consumers, 22.16% revealed having food poisoning after sausage consumption. The risk factors recorded were: Consumption outside of home (24.30%, OR=1.769, p=0.040), during the summer season (24.30%, OR=1.159) and during lunch (26.50%, OR=1.421). CONCLUSION: Our study highlights a high prevalence of S. aureus contamination in Merguez, especially in some departments of Algiers, and the high multidrug resistance of S. aureus isolates against tetracycline and oxacillin; thus, S. aureus contamination in sausage is considered a potential risk to public health. Therefore, to reduce and prevent the spread of resistant strains, robust management and monitoring of antibiotic use should be established. Therefore, it is necessary to improve the sanitation conditions and education regarding personal hygiene and change certain consumption habits of Algerian consumers to ensure food safety. Finally, it can be concluded that the application of the HACCP system is essential either in butcheries producing sausage and/or slaughterhouses. From this perspective, studies might be performed to characterize Staphylococcus spp and S. aureus to investigate their virulence factors.

Seroprevalence and risk factors of Toxoplasma gondii infection in rabbit of local Algerian population.

AIM: The objective of this investigation was to determine the seroprevalence and identify the risk factors of Toxoplasma gondii infection in the rabbit of the local Algerian population from five districts of Northern Algeria. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Blood samples of 350 rabbits were collected and analyzed for the presence of anti-T. gondii immunoglobulin G antibodies using the indirect enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Additional data concerning the farms and management practices were obtained through a questionnaire used in surveys and interviews. RESULTS: The overall seroprevalence was 14.6% (51/350). The seroprevalence was significantly higher in outdoor rearing farms and was linked to the presence of animals from other species on the farm. A higher seroprevalence was found in older animals compared to younger ones. No difference in seroprevalence was noted with respect to the origin or gender of animals, type of cage, feed and water sources, presence of cats in the vicinity, hygiene status, or season. CONCLUSION: This study has shown that T. gondii prevalence in rabbits of the local population is relevant and may have important implications for public health in rural areas.

A post-mortem study of bovine fasciolosis in the Mitidja (north center of Algeria): prevalence, risk factors, and comparison of diagnostic methods.

The present study was conducted to determine the prevalence of fasciolosis and investigate the associated risk factors (sex, age, and season) in slaughtered cattle of the Mitidja area. This survey also aimed to compare three diagnostic methods: liver inspection, microscopic bile examination, and ELISA test. Liver and bile of 1400 cattle were examined for the presence of adult and eggs of Fasciola hepatica, respectively. Based on the results obtained by liver and bile examination, a subset of 206 cattle from the 1400 was selected for antibodies detection using the ELISA test. Liver inspection and microscopic bile examination showed prevalences of 2.86% and 5.50%, respectively. The difference between the two methods was highly significant (p < 0.001). The overall prevalence of bovine fasciolosis found by both methods was 6.07%. The disease was more prevalent in females (11.96%) than in males (2.43%), and in older cattle (12.30%) than in younger ones (2.36%). The ELISA test showed some conflicting results: 23.61% of cattle previously diagnosed positive with liver inspection and bile examination were found seronegative, and 3.73% of cattle previously diagnosed negative were found to be seropositive. The sensitivity and specificity of microscopic bile examination were respectively 80% (CI 65.2-89.5%) and 96.7% (CI 95.6-97.5%) as compared with the liver inspection. Likewise, this same method has a sensitivity of 81.36% (CI 69.6-89.3%) and a specificity of 88.97% (CI 82.8-93.1%) as compared with the ELISA test. Our results show that microscopic bile examination is able to detect more infected cattle than liver inspection. In addition to being simple, fast, inexpensive, sensitive, and specific, it is an effective method for the diagnosis of fasciolosis.

Evaluation of Fasciola hepatica Infections in Cattle in Northeastern Algeria and the Effects on Both Enzyme and Hepatic Damage, Confirmed by Scanning Electron Microscopy.

PURPOSE: The aim of our study is to establish the presence of Fasciola hepatica on farms in northeastern Algeria. METHODS: 143 blood and coprological samples of 15 males and 128 females of different breeds and ages were analysed. RESULTS: Our study indicates a heterogeneous level of the anti-f2 antibodies to Fasciola hepatica in response to the infection. The overall seroprevalence was about 22.37%, and 9 out of 13 investigated farms were infected, with rates varying from 5.88% to 70%. To explain the intrinsic variability of the infection, we identified age, sex and breed as potential risk factors. Based on this, we collected information about their relevance. There was a significant difference for age (p = 0.018) and coprology (p < 0.0001). Independently, sex and breed had no impact on the infection, although males were more infected (27%) than females (22%). Of the five investigated breeds, Holstein cattle (31.11%) were most affected, followed by Montbeliard (20.27%) and crossed breed (13.64%). Multivariate comparisons showed that the presence of faecal eggs reflects the active infectious status of cattle (p < 0.0001), while age (p = 0.011) and sex (p = 0.040) significantly impact the chance of acquiring the infection. To evaluate liver parenchyma integrity and its functionality, hepatic enzymes were examined and showed relatively low levels of aminotransferases, excluding cytolisis. Although sensitive to distomatosis, γGT and PAL values were inconsistent with the infection rate. The relatively high levels of proteins and albumin eliminate hepatic insufficiency. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest a chronic fasciolosis, confirmed by histology and SEM.

Prevalence of coccidian infection in rabbit farms in North Algeria.

AIM: The aim of the present study was to determine the prevalence and intensity of rabbit coccidiosis (Oryctolagus cuniculus) in North Algeria. MATERIALS AND METHODS: During the study, 40 rabbit farms were investigated. The farms are located in the provinces of Tizi Ouzou, Médéa, and Djelfa which distributed, respectively, into three regions: East Tell Atlas Mountains, Central Tell Atlas Mountains, and High Plateaus. The number of oocyst per gram of feces (OPG) was determined by McMaster technique, and the Eimeria species were identified using morphological criteria. RESULTS: In the farms investigated, the prevalence of coccidian infection was estimated to 90% (80.7-99.3%) in rabbits after weaning. The classification of the farms according to their parasite load allowed us to show that 37.5% of the prospective farms have an oocyst excretion between 104 and 5×104 oocysts per gram and 22.5% excrete >5×104 oocysts per gram. Excretion levels by region show that the region of East Tel Atlas Mountains ranks first with 79% of farms with a parasitic load >104 coccidians compared to the regions of Central Tel Atlas Mountains and High Plateaus. In total, eight species of Eimeria were identified from oocyst-positive samples. Mixed infections with four Eimeria species were common. E. magna is the dominant species in comparison with E. media and E. irresidua with respective frequencies of 42.5% and 17.6% and 14.9% (p<0.001). Our results showed that the farms using anticoccidial drugs for their rabbits were low (25%) and the percentage of farms with poor hygienic conditions was 65%. There was a significant association between increased oocysts excretion and control measures of coccidian infection. CONCLUSION: The study revealed an overall prevalence of 90% in the three Algerian regions. A strong association was observed between Eimeria infection and hygienic status and preventional chemotherapy.

Sources of contamination, prevalence, and antimicrobial resistance of thermophilic Campylobacter isolated from turkeys.

AIM: Sources of contamination, prevalence, and antimicrobial susceptibility of thermophilic Campylobacter isolated from turkey samples were determined. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 300 samples were collected from 3 farms (fecal droppings) and 4 poultry slaughterhouses (neck skins and ceca) located in the middle area of Algeria (Algiers, Boumerdès, and Bouira). After detection, an antibiogram was realized only for slaughterhouses samples. RESULTS: Samples from cecum (90.0%, 90/100; 95% confidence interval (CI)=84.1-95.9%), fecal dropping (68.0%, 68/100; 95% CI=58.9-77.1%), and neck skin (55.0%, 55/100; 95% CI=45.2-64.8%) were positive for thermophilic Campylobacter (p<0.05). Contamination rate of turkey carcasses was higher in modern slaughterhouse (96.7%) than in traditional slaughterhouses (37.1%) (p<0.05). Isolated strains were resistant to nalidixic acid (NA) (87.5%), tetracycline (TE) (81.3%), ciprofloxacin (CIP) (75.0%), ampicillin (AM) (65.6%), and erythromycin (25.0%) (p<0.05). 96.9% (124/128) of the isolates were multiresistant and 18 drug resistance patterns were registered. The predominant one (43.0%) was AM, NA, CIP, and TE. CONCLUSIONS: Potential sources of contamination of this fastidious bacterium were noticed in farms and slaughterhouses. Modern slaughterhouse allowed contamination of turkey carcasses more than a traditional slaughterhouse. However, the scalding step could not represent a source of contamination. The most tested strains exhibited resistance to erythromycin and/or CIP. It is worrisome because these molecules are considered as first-choice antibiotics for human campylobacteriosis.