[Prediction of the effectiveness of the therapy of LUTS/BPH by Serenoa repens extracts].

INTRODUCTION: For the treatment of LUTS/BPH is used a wide range of drugs that patients have to take for a long time. Therefore, it is important to develop methods for predicting long-term results of therapy. The purpose of this work is to evaluate the possibility to predict long-term results of drug therapy of LUTS/BPH using mathematical modeling on the example of treatment with Serenoa repens extract (ESR - Permixon). MATERIALS AND METHODS: For prediction using the methods of predictive analytics of the therapeutic ESR effect in the long term, materials from the open study "Clinical and biological long-term tolerance of a lipidosterolic extract of Serenoa repens (Permixon) in patients with symptomatic benign prostatic hypertrophy" (No. P0048 95 GP 401) were used. The study took place in 1995-1999 in 3 Moscow medical centers: Research Institute of Urology of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, Urological Clinic of the Moscow Medical Academy named after Sechenov and the urology department of Moscow Clinical Hospital No 60. The study included 155 patients aged 52 to 87 years (65.3) who received the drug in 320 mg capsules per day for two years. The target indicators of the prognosis identified key clinical parameters: a decrease IPSS of>25% or>3 points and an increase in Qmax>25% at 12 and 24 months of treatment. When evaluating the results, a binary approach was used: improvement achieved (1), not achieved (0). RESULTS: Using the methods of predictive analytics, mathematical models were built to predict the long-term results of treatment according to the most significant 7 initial criterias (predictors): IPSS; Qmax; average urine flow rate; urination volume, urination time, residual urine volume, prostate volume. For each target field and time interval, mathematical models were built using ensembles from 7 selected machine learning algorithms with the best predictive qualities: BNet; C5.0; SVM; KNN; NNet; CHAID; C&RT. Verification of models on internal randomized samples showed their high prognostic properties: sensitivity 82.4-99.0; specificity 75.0-96.1; AUC 0,864-0,965. CONCLUSION: The potential for effective prediction by the methods of predictive analytics and data mining of the separated results of drug therapy of LUTS / BPH according to the main clinical criteria was demonstrated. It is necessary to continue training and testing the model with the inclusion of new clinical observations in the data set. This approach is applicable to the creation of similar models for predicting the effect of other drugs.

[The role of lipids in the metabolic response to intrajejunal administration of hypertonic glucose solution]. / Rol' lipidov v mekhanizme metabolicheskogo otveta na intraeiunal'noe vvedenie gipertonicheskogo rastvora gliukozy.

Importance of impairments in lipid metabolism for development of dumping reactions was studied in experimental animals. Alterations in content of free fatty acids, triglycerides and phospholipids before and at the peak of the provoked dumping reaction depended on the type of the dumping reaction. Lipid metabolites were involved in development of the provoked dumping reaction.

[The effect of ftorotan on the lipid and cAMP content of the liver in hypoxia]. / Vliianie ftorotana na soderzhanie lipidov i tsAMF v pecheni pri gipoksii.

A study was made of the content of cAMP, triglycerides and nonesterified fatty acids in the liver of rats anesthesized with halothane under conditions of spontaneous respiration depending on the oxygen content in the inhalation mixture. As the content of oxygen in the inhalation mixture was reduced, the content of cAMP in the liver was decreased, the intensity of lipolysis was disturbed with subsequent derangement of fatty acids oxidation. The raising of the oxygen content in the inhalation mixture did not disturb the activity of the adenylate cyclase system or provoked deep lipolysis disorders in the liver.

[Cyclic adenosine monophosphate and myocardial lipids in fluothane anesthesia depending on the oxygen content in the inhalation mixture]. / Tsiklicheskii adenozinmonofosfat i lipidy miokarda pri ftorotanovoi anestezii v zavisimosti ot soderzhaniia kisloroda v ingaliatsionnoi smesi.

Content of cyclic adenosine monophosphate (cAMP), which involved in regulation of heart metabolism, was altered in myocardium depending on oxygen concentration in the inhalation mixture. Increase of oxygen concentration during gas anesthesia stimulated lipolysis and elevated cAMP content, while these parameters were lowered after decrease of oxygen content in the mixture.

[Lipid metabolism during general anesthesia with halothane in relation to the oxygen content in the inhalation mixture]. / Metabolizm lipidov pri obshchei anestezii ftorotanom v zavisimosti ot soderzhaniia kisloroda v ingaliatsionnoi smesi.

Lipid metabolism (nonesterified fatty acids, triglycerides) was studied in experimental animals under halothane anesthesia in conditions of spontaneous respiration in dependence on oxygen content in the inhalation mixture. The results have shown that changes in blood lipid fractions depend on oxygen concentration in the inhalation mixture during anesthesia. In high oxygen content, there is an enhancement of lipolysis in fatty tissues. Lipogenesis processes predominant in the liver do not depend on oxygen concentration in the inhalation mixture.

[New data on the mechanisms of adaptation to physical load in ischemic heart disease and their use in rehabilitating myocardial infarct patients]. / Novye dannye o mekhanizmakh adaptatsii k fizicheskim nagruzkam pri ishemicheskoi bolezni serdtsa i puti ikh ispol'zovaniia pri reabilitatsii bol'nykh infarktom miokarda.

Oxygen consumption during physical exercise was examined in post-myocardial infarction patients and normal subjects. Similar exercise caused different oxygen consumption in patients of different functional categories. Once the steady state is reached, patients belonging to more favourable functional categories have increased oxygen consumption, as compared to normal subjects, which enables them to cope with fairly great physical stress. In patients belonging to poor functional categories, oxygen consumption decreases during exercise, preventing them from reaching greater levels of physical stress and resulting in "oxygen debt" which only subsides after exercise is over. Therefore, two types of adaptation to physical stress were identified in coronary patients, which is of practical relevance to programs of physical rehabilitation for myocardial infarction survivors.