Spatiotemporal patterns of rheumatic heart disease burden attributable to high systolic blood pressure, high sodium diet, and lead exposure (1990 to 2019): a longitudinal observational study.

Background: Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) continues to be a significant global health concern, exhibiting unique regional disparities. Although there is a noted decline in the burden of RHD, the specific causatives for this decrease remain unclear. This study aims to identify and quantify the spatiotemporal patterns related to the RHD-attributable risk burden. Methods: The data pertaining to deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to RHD risk were drawn from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study conducted from 1990 to 2019. These data, categorized by age, gender, and geographical location, highlighted risk factors including diets high in sodium, elevated systolic blood pressure (SBP), and lead exposure. To examine the long-term trends in RHD changes due to these specific risk factors, the average annual percentage change (AAPC) method was used. Results: During the past 30 years, the highest decrease in RHD burden was attributed to high SBP. An AAPC of -2.73 [95% confidence interval (CI): -2.82 to -2.65] and - 2.45 (95% CI: -2.55 to -2.36) in deaths and DALYs was attributable to high SBP, while an AAPC of -3.99 (95% CI: -4.14 to -3.85) and - 3.74 (95% CI: -3.89 to -3.6) in deaths and DALYs was attributed to a diet high in sodium. Moreover, the trends in deaths and DALYs due to lead exposure also showed decreases with an AAPC of -2.94 (95% CI: -3 to -2.89) and - 3.46 (95% CI: -3.58 to -3.34) from 1990 to 2019. Oceania showed an upward trend of the RHD DALYs due to high SBP, with an AAPC of 0.23 (95% CI: 0.13 to 0.33). In general, countries in Oceania, East Asia, and South Asia had higher age-standard deaths and DALY rates of RHD due to diets high in sodium. Conclusion: Our study has revealed that high SBP remains the prime risk factor contributing to the RHD burden. There are decreasing spatiotemporal patterns in RHD-related deaths and burdens. Gaining this knowledge is fundamental to making informed public health strategies and clinical decisions, especially concerning risk assessment, screening, and prevention initiatives.

Burden of uterine cancer in China from 1990 to 2021 and 15-year projection: a systematic analysis and comparison with global levels.

OBJECTIVE: Uterine cancer (UC) is one of the prevalent malignancies in the female reproductive system. Estimating the burden trends of UC is crucial for developing effective prevention strategies at the national level. However, there has been no comprehensive analysis of the UC burden in China. We focused on the evaluation of the burden trends of UC in China over the past 32 years to provide a 15-year projection, comparing it with global levels. METHODS: Data on incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were extracted from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 to describe the burden of UC in China. Joinpoint regression analysis was employed to describe the temporal trends of UC in China and globally over the past 32 years. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was utilized to predict the trends of UC in the next 15 years. Spearman correlation analysis was used to compare the relationship between ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, ASDR, and SDI in UC in China and globally. Changes in ASMR and ASDR in UC caused by high BMI in China and globally from 1990 to 2021 were explored. RESULTS: In 2021, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) of UC in China were 6.65, 46.52, 1.24, and 37.86 (per 100,000 population) respectively. Compared to 1990, the ASMR and ASDR decreased by 48.63% and 48.15% respectively, while the ASIR and ASPR increased by 17.79% and 37.67% respectively. Globally, the burden of UC followed a similar trend in China, with increasing ASIR and ASPR, and decreasing ASMR and ASDR, although the magnitude of increase and decrease was smaller than in China. Joinpoint regression analysis results showed an overall upward trend in ASIR and ASPR for both China and global UC, while an overall downward trend was observed in ASMR and ASDR. Age-specific analysis revealed that during the period from 1990 to 2021, the age groups with the highest incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs for UC in China generally occurred at earlier ages compared to the global pattern. It is projected that over the next 15 years, the burden of UC in China will continue to increase at a higher rate than the global level. Spearman correlation analysis showed that ASIR and ASPR of UC in China and the world were significantly positively correlated with SDI (p < 0.05), and ASMR and ASDR were significantly negatively correlated with SDI (p < 0.001). High BMI is a risk factor affecting the mortality rate and DALYs of UC in both China and globally, with the increase in ASMR and ASDR due to high BMI being greater in China than globally. CONCLUSION: The incidence and prevalence burden of UC among Chinese and global women have shown an increasing trend over the past 32 years, while the mortality and DALYs have decreased. The projected burden of UC in China is anticipated to continue rising at a higher rate than the global level over the next 15 years. Given the large population in China, the government needs to strengthen screening and prevention strategies to mitigate the burden of UC.

The cardiovascular disease burden attributable to kidney dysfunction from 1990 to 2021: an age-period-cohort analysis of the Global Burden of Disease study.

BACKGROUND: Kidney dysfunction (KD) poses a severe threat to human health. The aim of this study is to gain a comprehensive understanding of the trends in cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden attributable to KD, thereby providing a theoretical basis for relevant public health policies. METHODS: This study analyzed trends in the burden of CVD attributable to KD using the 2021 Global Burden of Disease data. It also examined the differences in mortality rates across various age groups, genders, and subtypes of CVD. Additionally, the age-period-cohort model combined with joinpoint regression analysis was employed to gain further insights into the changing trends and inflection points of CVD-related mortality. RESULTS: In 2021, the global number of deaths from CVD attributable to KD significantly increased compared to 1990. However, the global age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) decreased in 2021. The burden of CVD due to KD was particularly heavy among the elderly. Analysis using the age-period-cohort model revealed a decline in CVD-related mortality rates, with similar trends observed for both men and women. CONCLUSIONS: This study reveals that although the ASMR for CVD due to KD is on a declining trend globally, the absolute number of deaths has significantly increased. This trend is especially pronounced among individuals aged 80 and older, males, and regions with a middle socio-demographic index (SDI). In the context of global aging, the burden of CVD related to KD is becoming increasingly substantial.

Interacting trends of colorectal cancer incidence: the combined effects of screening and birth cohort.

BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer remains a major global public health challenge. Its incidence is shaped by a complex interplay of screening programmes and age, period and cohort factors. METHODS: We introduce a novel Age-Period-Cohort-Screening (APCS) model to analyse trends in colorectal cancer incidence in Taiwan from 2000 to 2019. RESULTS: In 2010, the incidence of colorectal cancer in Taiwan increased by 19.2% (95% CI: 13.5%, 25.3%) for men and 15.6% (95% CI: 9.2%, 22.4%) for women. This was followed by annual declines of 3.4% (95% CI: 2.8%, 4.1%) and 3.1% (95% CI: 2.4%, 3.9%), respectively. By 2015 for men and 2014 for women, the age-standardized incidence had fallen below the levels projected in a no-screening scenario. By 2019, the incidence had further declined by 12.4% (95% CI: 11.8%, 13.1%) for men and 11.6% (95% CI: 10.7%, 12.6%) for women, compared with the no-screening scenario. Cohort effects have shown a persistent rise from 1920 to 1980: incidence increased 5.8-fold for men and 3.1-fold for women. The trend began to plateau after 1980, with a noticeable decline in women. CONCLUSION: Through its screening programme, Taiwan has successfully reduced colorectal cancer incidence by 10% as of 2019. Furthermore, the incidence due to cohort effects has plateaued and even begun to decline. However, continued monitoring remains crucial. The advanced APCS model could serve as a robust analytical tool for other researchers and policy makers evaluating the impacts of cancer screening programmes on incidence trends.

Dynamic trends of ischemic heart disease mortality attributable to high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol: a joinpoint analysis and age-period-cohort analysis with predictions.

AIMS: The purpose of this study was to analyze the dynamic trends of ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality attributable to high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C). METHODS: Data on IHD mortality attributable to high LDL-C from 1990 to 2021 were extracted from the global disease burden database. Joinpoint software was used to estimate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) in the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR). An age‒period‒cohort model was used to analyze the impacts of age, period, and cohort on these changes. The Bayesian framework was used to predict IHD mortality attributable to high LDL-C from 2022 to 2040. RESULTS: The overall ASMR of IHD attributable to high LDL-C decreased from 50. 479 per 100,000 people in 1990 to 32.286 per 100,000 people in 2021, and ASMR of IHD attributable to high LDL-C was higher in males than in females. The longitudinal age curves of the overall IHD mortality attributable to high LDL-C showed a monotonic upward trend, especially after 65 years of age. The period and cohort effect relative risk (RR) values of overall IHD mortality attributable to high LDL-C showed a downward trend. The overall ASMR of IHD attributable to high LDL-C is predicted to show a downward trend, and male IHD mortality attributable to high LDL-C is expected to be higher than that of females. CONCLUSION: This study revealed a sustained decrease in IHD mortality attributable to high LDL-C over three decades, with a continued decline expected. Despite this, gender disparities persist, with males experiencing higher mortality rates and elderly individuals remaining a vulnerable group.

Differences in global, regional, and national time trends in disability-adjusted life years for atrial fibrillation and flutter, 1990-2019: an age-period-cohort analysis from the 2019 global burden of disease study.

Background: Atrial fibrillation and flutter, collectively referred to as AF/AFL, pose substantial public health challenges across nations of different economic statuses. Abjective: This research is intended to assess the discrepancies in global, regional, and national trends in DALYs for atrial fibrillation and flutter throughout 1990 and 2019. Methods: The GBD 2019 report included statistics on AF/AFL. An age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to calculate the changes in DALYs from ages 30 to 34 years up to 95 + years. The model calculated both net drifts and local drifts in DALYs. In addition, we analysed the relative risks for certain time periods and birth cohorts from 1990 to 2019 in order to assess their impact. In order to measure the changes over time in the age-standardized rate (ASR) of DALYs caused by AF/AFL, we calculated the average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) based on age, gender, socio-demographic index (SDI), and location. This approach enables us to analyse the impact of age, period, and cohort on trends in DALYs, which may uncover disparities in the management of AF/AFL. Results: The global number of DALYs cases was 8,393,635 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 6,693,987 to 10,541,461], indicating a 121.6% rise (95% UI: 111.5 to 132.0) compared to 1990. From 1990 to 2019, the worldwide ASR of DALYs decreased by 2.61% (95% UI -6.9 to 1.3). However, the other SDI quintiles, except for high SDI and high-middle SDI, had an increase. During the last three decades, high-income nations in the Asia Pacific region had the most significant reduction in ASR of DALYs, whereas Central Asia experienced the highest rise (with a net drift of -0.9% [95% Confidence Interval (CI): -1.0 to -0.9] and 0.6% [95% CI: 0.5 to 0.7], respectively). Approximately 50% of the burden of AF/AFL has been transferred from areas with high and high-middle SDI to those with lower SDI. There was an inverse relationship between the AAPC and the SDI. In addition, men and older individuals were shown to have a greater burden of AF/AFL DALYs. Conclusion: The findings of this research demonstrate that the worldwide impact of AF/AFL remains significant and increasing, with the burden differing depending on SDI. The exhaustive and comparable estimates provided by these results may contribute to international efforts to attain equitable AF/AFL control.

Insights into epidemiological trends of severe chest injuries: an analysis of age, period, and cohort from 1990 to 2019 using the Global Burden of Disease study 2019.

BACKGROUND: This study assessed the global trends and burden of severe chest injury, including rib fractures, lung contusions, and heart injuries from 1990 to 2019. Herein, we predicted the burden patterns and temporal trends of severe chest injuries to provide epidemiological evidence globally and in China. METHODS: In our analysis, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), prevalence rate (ASPR), and years lived with disability rate (ASYR) of severe chest injury were analyzed by gender, age, sociodemographic index, and geographical region between 1990 and 2019 using data from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019. Trends were depicted by calculating the estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs). The impact of age, period, and cohort factors was assessed using an Age-Period-Cohort model. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was employed to predict severe chest injury trends from 2020 to 2050. RESULTS: In 2019, the global number of severe chest injury cases reached 7.95 million, with the highest incidence rate observed in Central Europe (209.61). Afghanistan had the highest ASIRs at 277.52, while North Korea had the lowest ASIRs at 41.02. From 1990 to 2019, the Syrian Arab Republic saw significant increases in ASIR, ASPR, and ASYR, with EAPCs of 10.4%, 9.31%, and 10.3%, respectively. Burundi experienced a decrease in ASIR with an EAPC of - 6.85% (95% confidence interval [CI] - 11.11, - 2.37), while Liberia's ASPR and ASYR declined with EAPCs of - 3.22% (95% CI - 4.73, - 1.69) and - 5.67% (95% CI - 8.00, - 3.28), respectively. Falls and road injuries remained the most common causes. The relative risk of severe chest injury by age, period, and cohort demonstrated a complex effect globally and in China. The ARIMA model forecasted a steady increase in global numbers from 2020 to 2050, while in China, it forecasted an increase in incidence, a decrease in ASIR and ASYR, and an increase in ASPR. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a groundbreaking analysis of global severe chest injury, shedding light on its measures and impact. These findings highlight the need for timely, specialized care and addressing regional disparities to mitigate the severe chest injury burden.

Comprehensive analysis of multiple sclerosis hospitalization trends in Spain (1998-2022).

OBJECTIVE: To analyse the trends in MS hospitalization rates in Spain (1998-2022) considering age, period, and birth cohort (A-P-C) effects. METHODS: This retrospective study used data on MS hospitalizations from the Spanish National Health System Minimum Basic Data Set (CMBD). Age-Standardized Hospitalization Rates (ASHRs) and Joinpoint analysis were used to assess trends. A-P-C analysis was performed to estimate age-specific rates, period and cohort effects. RESULTS: From 1998 to 2022, MS hospital admissions in Spain declined annually by -2.1 %, with women showing a slightly greater decrease (-2.3 %) than men (-1.7 %). Joinpoint analysis revealed non-parallel trends, with three inflection points indicating distinct periods of stabilization and decline. ASHR showed an overall decrease, with -2.0 % for men and -2.2 % for women annually. Risk of hospitalization peaked in the 25-29-year age group for men and 30-34-year age group for women, declining with age. Women consistently had higher risk ratios across age groups. Cohort analysis showed periods of stabilization and decline in MS hospitalization risk, aligning with joinpoint analysis findings. Risk increased for cohorts born in the early 20th century, peaking around 1938, followed by a progressive decline in later cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: Despite an aging population, MS hospitalization rates in Spain decreased. The risk of hospitalization for MS is affected by a person's age, the time period they were born in, the historical context of healthcare received, and potentially their sex.

Immunotherapy Improves the Survival of Stage 4 Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients at the US Population Level: The Real-World Evidence.

INTRODUCTION: Immunotherapy has revolutionized the management of lung cancer and improved lung cancer survival in trials, but its real-world impact at the population level remains unclear. METHODS: Using data obtained from eight Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registries from 2004 through 2019, we addressed the long-term trends in the incidence, incidence-based mortality (IBM), and survival of lung cancer patients in the United States. RESULTS: The incidence and IBM of both non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and small cell lung cancer (SCLC) all significantly decreased steadily from 2004 to 2019. The 1-year survival (1-YS) of both NSCLC and SCLC improved over time, with the best improvement observed for Stage 4 NSCLC. Two significant turning points of Stage 4 NSCLC 1-YS were observed over the years: 0.63% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.33%-0.93%) from 2004 to 2010, 0.81% (95% CI: 0.41%-1.21%) from 2010 to 2014 and a striking 2.09% (95% CI: 1.70%-2.47%) from 2014 to 2019. The same two turning points in 1-YS were pronounced for Stage 4 NSCLC in women, which were coincident with the introduction of epidermal growth factor receptor tyrosine kinase inhibitors (EGFR-TKIs) and immunotherapy. However, for Stage 4 NSCLC in men, only one significant turning point in the 1-YS starting in 2014 was found, which might only correspond to immunotherapy. Significant period effects in reduced IBM were also observed for both Stage 4 AD and Stage 4 SQCC during the period. CONCLUSION: This SEER analysis found that immunotherapy improved the survival of Stage 4 NSCLC patients at the population level in the United States. This real-world evidence confirms that immunotherapy has truly revolutionized the management of lung cancer.

Blame it on my youth: the origins of attitudes towards immigration.

Recent studies have demonstrated generational differences in attitudes towards immigration, however, less is known about what are the exact factors behind these differences. Our study investigates why cohorts formulate distinct patterns in attitudes towards immigration through a collective process of political socialization during their formative years. The theoretical arguments are tested using hierarchical age-period-cohort modelling across thirteen cohorts in thirteen European countries using micro attitudinal data (2002-2020) integrated with historical macro-political data. We find that contextual exposure to the principle of equality in the formative political climate is central to the formulation of a person's attitudes towards immigration later in life. While the prevalence of the principle of equality affects immigration attitudes in adulthood positively, the principle of tradition does not. The findings imply that even subtle and cyclical shifts in national politics affect the political orientations of those undergoing the process of political socialization. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1057/s41269-023-00314-6.

Global, regional, and national burden of bladder cancer, 1990-2019: an age-period-cohort analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study.

OBJECTIVES: Bladder cancer is a common malignancy worldwide, with substantial morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to assess the global, regional, and national burden of bladder cancer from 1990 to 2019 using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study and to analyze the trends using an age-period-cohort (APC) model. STUDY DESIGN: In this cross-sectional study, secondary analyses were conducted to assess the burden of bladder cancer using data from GBD 2019. METHODS: Bladder cancer prevalence, incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and their age-standardized rates (ASRs) were obtained from the GBD 2019 study. The estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to quantify the trends in ASRs. An APC analysis was performed to distinguish the effects of age, period, and cohort on the observed temporal trends. RESULTS: The global prevalence of bladder cancer increased substantially from 1990 to 2019, reaching 2,869,046.4 cases (95% UI: 2,614,200.3-3,114,474.4) in 2019. The age-standardized prevalence rate rose from 20.9 per 100,000 population in 1990 to 37.1 per 100,000 population in 2019, with an EAPC of 1.97 (95% CI: 1.93-2.01). The global burden of bladder cancer, as measured by DALYs, increased from 48.0 per 100,000 population in 1990 to 56.8 per 100,000 population in 2019, with an EAPC of 0.47 (95% CI: 0.4-0.53), demonstrating the growing impact of this disease on population health. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates a significant increase in prevalence, incidence, mortality, and DALYs, with substantial variations across sociodemographic index (SDI) quintiles and GBD regions. The findings emphasize the need for concerted efforts at the global, regional, and national levels to reduce the burden of bladder cancer through primary prevention, early detection, and improved access to treatment services.

Trends and multi-model prediction of hepatitis B incidence in Xiamen.

Background: This study aims to analyze the trend of Hepatitis B incidence in Xiamen City from 2004 to 2022, and to select the best-performing model for predicting the number of Hepatitis B cases from 2023 to 2027. Methods: Data were obtained from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention (CISDCP). The Joinpoint Regression Model analyzed temporal trends, while the Age-Period-Cohort (APC) model assessed the effects of age, period, and cohort on hepatitis B incidence rates. We also compared the predictive performance of the Neural Network Autoregressive (NNAR) Model, Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS) Model, Prophet, Exponential Smoothing (ETS) Model, Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) Model, and Hybrid Model, selecting the model with the highest performance to forecast the number of hepatitis B cases for the next five years. Results: Hepatitis B incidence rates in Xiamen from 2004 to 2022 showed an overall declining trend, with rates higher in men than in women. Higher incidence rates were observed in adults, particularly in the 30-39 age group. Moreover, the period and cohort effects on incidence showed a declining trend. Furthermore, in the best-performing NNAR(10, 1, 6)[12] model, the number of new cases is predicted to be 4271 in 2023, increasing to 5314 by 2027. Conclusions: Hepatitis B remains a significant issue in Xiamen, necessitating further optimization of hepatitis B prevention and control measures. Moreover, targeted interventions are essential for adults with higher incidence rates.

Age, period and cohort effects of heavy episodic drinking by sex/gender and socioeconomic position in Canada, 2000-2021.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Heavy episodic drinking (HED) trends have not been comprehensively examined in Canada. We measured age, period and birth cohort trends in HED in Canada by sex/gender and socioeconomic position. DESIGN AND SETTING: We analyzed repeat cross-sectional data from the 10 provinces in the Canadian Community Health Surveys from 2000 to 2021 using hierarchical cross-classified random effects logistic regression. PARTICIPANTS: 1 167 831 respondents aged 12+ . MEASUREMENTS: HED was defined as 4+ standard drinks for women or 5+ for men at least monthly in the past 12 months. Socioeconomic position was measured using household income and education. FINDINGS: We observed steeper HED decreases in young adult men (aged 18-29) than women (by 14.4% and 8.7%, respectively, from 2015 to 2021) and HED increases in middle adult women (ages 50-64) (by 8.0% from 2000 to 2014). Sex/gender-specific age-period-cohort models revealed strong age and birth cohort effects. In women and men, respectively, HED peaked in young adulthood (18.2% and 33.8%) and decreased with age, and HED was greatest in the 1980-1989 cohort (20.7% and 35.8%) and decreased in the most recent cohort born in 1990-2009 (15.6% and 19.8%), particularly in men. Higher household incomes had greater HED across age, periods and cohorts, while trends varied by education. Compared with lower education groups, people with a bachelor's degree or above had the lowest HED in middle adulthood. People with a bachelor's degree or above had low HED in earlier cohorts, which converged with other education groups in recent cohorts due to a pronounced HED increase, particularly in women. CONCLUSION: The sex/gender gap in heavy episodic drinking (HED) appears to be converging in Canada: current young adult men are reducing HED, while high-risk cohorts of women are aging into middle adulthood with greater HED. Recent birth cohorts with a bachelor's degree or above experienced pronounced HED increases, which among women suggests greater educational attainment contributes to the converging gender gap in HED.

Secular trends in the prevalence of schizophrenia among different age, period and cohort groups between 1990 and 2019.

BACKGROUND: Schizophrenia remains a major public health challenge, and designing efforts to manage it requires understanding its prevalence over time at different geographic scales and population groups. METHODS: Drawing on data from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019, annual percentage change of schizophrenia was assessed across different age, period and cohort groups at different geographic scales from 1990 to 2019. We examined associations of prevalence with the sociodemographic index. RESULTS: Global prevalence of schizophrenia in 2019 was 23.60 million (95 % uncertainty interval: 20.23-27.15), with China, India, the USA and Indonesia accounting for 50.72 % of it. Global prevalence increased slightly from 1990 to 2019, with an annual percentage change of 0.03 % (95 % confidence interval 0.01-0.05). Regions with intermediate sociodemographic index accounted for greater proportion of prevalence increasing than regions with high index. Prevalence decreased among those born after 1979 in regions with intermediate sociodemographic index, whereas it consistently improved among all birth cohorts in regions with low index. Regardless of sociodemographic index, prevalence was highest among individuals 30-59 years old than younger or older groups. CONCLUSIONS: Prevalence of schizophrenia has shown small increases globally over the last three decades. The burden of disease is heavier in relatively less affluent regions, and it disproportionately affects individuals 30-59 years in all regions. Meanwhile, for regions with lower sociodemographic indices, the recent increasing burden among birth cohorts is more pronounced. These findings may help guide futural design of measures to manage or prevent schizophrenia in communities at higher risk.

Global, regional, and national time trends in the burden of epilepsy, 1990-2019: an age-period-cohort analysis for the global burden of disease 2019 study.

Background: Epilepsy is a non-communicable chronic brain disease that affects all age groups. There are approximately 50 million epilepsy patients worldwide, which is one of the most common neurological disorder. This study reports the time trends in the burden of epilepsy from 1999 to 2019. Methods: We evaluated the disease burden and its temporal trends of epilepsy using the prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs), which was estimated based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study. The age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to estimate the temporal trends of the epilepsy prevalence and YLDs rates, and to analyze the relative risks of age, periods and queues (age/period/queue effects). Results: In the past 30 years, the global age-standardized prevalence rate and age-standardized rate has increased by 29.61% and 27.02%, respectively. Globally, the APC model estimated the net drift of prevalence and YLDs were 0.88% (95% CI: 0.83-0.93) and 0.80% (95% CI: 0.75-0.85) per year. Among 204 countries and territories, the YLDs in 146 and prevalence 164 showed an increasing trend. And the risk of YLDs and prevalence increases with age, with the lowest risk among 0-4 years old and the highest risk among 75-79 years old. Unfavorable increasing period and cohort risks of YLDs and prevalence were observed. Conclusion: Over the past 30 years, the YLDs and prevalence of epilepsy have gradually increased globally and unfavorable increasing period and cohort risks were observed. Emphasizing epilepsy prevention, strengthening epilepsy health education, optimizing older adults epilepsy diagnosis and treatment plans, and actively promoting epilepsy diagnosis and treatment plans can effectively reduce new cases of epilepsy and related disabilities.

Global, regional and national trends in the burden of low bone mineral density from 1990 to 2030: A Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling study.

Low bone mineral density (LBMD) remains a global public health concern. To provide deeper insights, we retrieved and calibrated LBMD death and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 (GBD 2021) database. We calculated the age-standardized rate (ASR) and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) to delineate LBMD trends across sexes, age groups, Sociodemographic Index (SDI) regions, and countries. Spearman rank order correlation analysis was used to explore the relationship between SDI and ASR. Additionally, we constructed Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models to predict future trends in LBMD up to 2030, with the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) used to evaluate prediction accuracy. Our analyses revealed that global deaths related to LBMD nearly doubled, from 250,930 in 1990 to 463,010 in 2021, and are projected to rise to 473,690 by 2030. However, the ASR exhibited an opposite trend, decreasing from 17.91 per 100,000 in 1990 to 15.77 per 100,000 in 2021, and is expected to further decline to 13.64 per 100,000 by 2030. The EAPC indicated descending trends in 1990-2021 and 2022-2030. Trends in LBMD varied across different subgroups by sex, age, and location. Males are projected to continue experiencing higher death numbers than females, though the gap is narrowing. The 90 to 94 age group consistently had the highest ASR from 1990 to 2030. Lower SDI remains a critical factor contributing to the higher burden of LBMD. Spearman rank order correlation analysis showed a negative correlation between SDI and ASR. We categorized 6 distinct trends in ASR across different countries, with most expected to experience a decline by 2030. The MAPE value (0.038 < 0.1) indicated that the BAPC model produced reliable predictions even under the COVID-19 pandemic.

Further analysis of tuberculosis in eight high-burden countries based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 data.

BACKGROUNDS: Most significant findings from the Global Tuberculosis (TB) Report 2023 indicate that India, Indonesia, China, the Philippines, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) collectively contribute to approximately two-thirds of global TB cases. This study aims to provide crucial data-driven insights and references to improve TB control measures through a comprehensive analysis of these eight high-burden countries. METHODS: The eight high-burden TB countries analyzed in this study include India, Indonesia, China, the Philippines, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, and the DRC. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) of TB were derived from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2021 data. Temporal trends were analyzed using Joinpoint regression. An age-period-cohort model was applied to examine the risk ratios (RR) of TB across diverse age groups, periods, and birth cohorts. A Bayesian age-period-cohort framework was employed to predict the ASIR of TB by 2030. RESULTS: The study found that the Philippines (average annual percentage change = 3.1%, P < 0.001) exhibited an upward trend from 1990 to 2021. In India, the Philippines, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, the RR of TB incidence exceeded 1 after individuals reached 25 years old. Notably, the RR has shown a consistent upward trend since 2001, peaking during the period of 2017-2021 with an estimated RR of 1.5 (P < 0.001) in the Philippines. Similarly, the highest RR was observed during the period of 2017-2021 reaching 1.1 (P < 0.001) in the DRC. In the Philippines, the markedly increasing RR values for TB have been observed among individuals born after 1997-2001. Projections suggest that the ASIR of TB is expected to follow a continued upward trajectory, with an estimated rate of 392.9 per 100,000 by 2030 in the Philippines; India and Indonesia are projected to achieve less than 20.0% of the target set by the World Health Organization (WHO). CONCLUSIONS: Among the eight high-burden countries, the Philippines, India and Indonesia are diverging from the goals set by the WHO, and the risk of TB in the Philippines and the DRC shows a trend toward affecting younger populations, which suggests that the management strategies for TB patients need to be further strengthened.

The Cancer Incidence and Trends From 2011 to 2018 in Ma'anshan, China: A Registry-Based Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: The cancer burden in China has been increasing over the decades. However, the cancer incidence remains unknown in Ma'anshan, which is one of the central cities in the Yangtze River Delta in Eastern China. The study was designed to describe the cancer incidence and trends in Ma'anshan from 2011 to 2018, providing information about cancer etiology that is useful for prevention programs. METHODS: The cancer incidence rate and age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) were calculated using the cancer registry data in Ma'anshan during 2011-2018. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) of the ASIR was analyzed by the Joinpoint regression analysis. Age, period, and cohort effects on cancer incidence were estimated through the age-period-cohort model. RESULTS: There were 13,508 newly diagnosed cancer cases in males and 9558 in females in Ma'anshan during 2011-2018. The ASIR maintained a steady trend in both males and females. Age effects showed that cancer risk increased with age in both genders; no visible period effects were detected during this study period. Cohort effects changed slowly until the end of the 1950s, then started decreasing in males while increasing in females after 1960. Lung, gastric, female breast, colorectal, cervical, esophageal, liver, thyroid, lymphoma, and pancreatic cancer were the most common cancers in Ma'anshan during the study period. The ASIR of gastric cancer (AAPC: -3.72%), esophageal cancer (AAPC: -8.30%), and liver cancer (AAPC: -5.55%) declined, while that of female breast cancer (AAPC: 3.91%), colorectal cancer (AAPC: 3.23%), and thyroid cancer (AAPC: 22.38%) rose. CONCLUSION: During 2011-2018, the cancer incidence in Ma'anshan was lower than that in China, nation-wide. The incidence of upper gastrointestinal cancer decreased gradually while female breast, colorectal, and thyroid cancers showed an upward trend, consistent with the changes in the cancer spectrum in China. Further studies should be designed to discover the underlying causes of these findings.

Age, period and cohort analysis of suicide trends in Australia, 1907-2020.

Background: Suicide rates have been increasing in Australia since the mid-2000s, especially for women aged ≤25 years. We conducted an age-period-cohort study to investigate these recent trends in the context of historical Australian suicide rates. Methods: Data on annual suicides in Australia from 1907 to 2020 were extracted from the General Record of Incidence of Mortality. We modelled age-specific effects for a reference cohort, after adjustment for period effects. Findings: We found evidence of age, cohort and period effects. For males, compared to the cohort born in 1946-1950, rates were higher for all cohorts born after this year. The period effect showed peaks in the risk of male suicide in the mid 1960s and the early 1990s, followed by a decline in risk until early 2010, after which the risk began to rise again. For females, compared to the cohort born in 1946-1950, the risk of suicide was higher for all cohorts born after this, with the highest risk for those born in 2006-2010. The period effect for females showed an elevated risk of suicide in the mid 1960s followed by a sharp decline, and an increase in risk after 2009. Interpretation: Suicide rates in Australia have fluctuated substantially over time and appear to be related to age trends as well as period and cohort trends. Advocacy and policy making tends to focus on contemporaneous changes in suicide rates. However, this study shows that focusing only on year-on-year changes in suicide rates ignores underlying trends for specific population birth-cohorts. Funding: None.

Comparison of secular trends of leukemia in China and the United States from 1990 to 2021 and their projections for the next 15 years.

Background: Leukemia imposes a large healthcare burden both in China and the United States (US). The disease burden differs greatly between the two countries, but related research is limited. We explored the differences in leukemia incidence and mortality between China and the US. Methods: Data on leukemia in China and the US from 1990 to 2021 were collected from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 database. Incidence and mortality were used to estimate the disease burden, and joinpoint regression was performed to compare their secular trends. We used an age-period-cohort model to analyze the effects of age, period, and birth cohort and project future trends in the next 15 years. Results: In 2021, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) of leukemia were lower in China than in the US. However, the incidence and mortality of acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) was considerably higher in China. In the past decades, the ASIR showed decreased tendency in the US, while ASIR showed stable in China. The ASDR tended to decrease in both countries from 1990 to 2021. Males have higher rates of incidence and mortality than females in two countries. The age effects showed that children and older individuals have higher RRs for incidence and mortality in China, while the RRs for incidence and mortality in the US particularly increased in the older population. The disease burden of leukemia in children is obviously greater in China. The ASIRs and ASDRs of leukemia will continue to decline in the next 15 years in China and the US, with the US experiencing a more obvious downtrend. Conclusions: Over the past decades, the ASDRs in two countries both tended to decrease. And compared to the US, China had lower leukemia incidence and mortality, However, the ASIRs in China tended toward stable, which it was showed downtrend in the US. Children have obviously greater RRs for incidence and mortality in China. The incidence and mortality will decrease continuously in two countries. Effective intervention measures are needed to reduce the burden of leukemia.