Development of a coupled model to simulate and assess arsenic contamination and impact factors in the Jinsha River Basin, China.

With the increasing severity of arsenic (As) pollution, quantifying the environmental behavior of pollutant based on numerical model has become an important approach to determine the potential impacts and finalize the precise control strategies. Taking the industrial-intensive Jinsha River Basin as typical area, a two-dimensional hydrodynamic water quality model coupled with Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was developed to accurately simulate the watershed-scale distribution and transport of As in the terrestrial and aquatic environment at high spatial and temporal resolution. The effects of hydro-climate change, hydropower station construction and non-point source emissions on As were quantified based on the coupled model. The result indicated that higher As concentration areas mainly centralized in urban districts and concentration slowly decreased from upstream to downstream. Due to the enhanced rainfall, the As concentration was significantly higher during the rainy season than the dry season. Hydro-climate change and the construction of hydropower station not only affected the dissolved As concentration, but also affected the adsorption and desorption of As in sediment. Furthermore, As concentration increased with the input of non-point source pollution, with the maximum increase about 30%, resulting that non-point sources contributed important pollutant impacts to waterways. The coupled model used in pollutant behavior analysis is general with high potential application to predict and mitigate water pollution.

Environmental sympatry through time: spatio-temporal distribution and conservation status of two sympatric anuran species (Leptodactylidae) in South America / Simpatría ambiental a través del tiempo: distribución espacio-temporal y estado de conservación de dos especies de anuros simpátricos (Leptodactylidae) en América del Sur

Abstract Introduction: Leptodactylus latinasus and Physalaemus cuqui are sympatric anuran species with similar environmental requirements and contrasting reproductive modes. Climatic configuration determines distribution patterns and promotes sympatry of environmental niches, but specificity/selectivity determines the success of reproductive modes. Species distribution models (SDM) are a valuable tool to predict spatio-temporal distributions based on the extrapolation of environmental predictors. Objectives: To determine the spatio-temporal distribution of environmental niches and assess whether the protected areas of the World Database of Protected Areas (WDPA) allow the conservation of these species in the current scenario and future. Methods: We applied different algorithms to predict the distribution and spatio-temporal overlap of environmental niches of L. latinasus and P. cuqui within South America in the last glacial maximum (LGM), middle-Holocene, current and future scenarios. We assess the conservation status of both species with the WDPA conservation units. Results: All applied algorithms showed high performance for both species (TSS = 0.87, AUC = 0.95). The L. latinasus predictions showed wide environmental niches from LGM to the current scenario (49 % stable niches, 37 % gained niches, and 13 % lost niches), suggesting historical fidelity to stable climatic-environmental regions. In the current-future transition, L. latinasus would increase the number of stable (70 %) and lost (20 %) niches, suggesting fidelity to lowland regions and a possible trend toward microendemism. P. cuqui loses environmental niches from the LGM to the current scenario (25 %) and in the current-future transition (63 %), increasing the environmental sympathy between both species; 31 % spatial overlap in the current scenario and 70 % in the future. Conclusion: Extreme drought events and rainfall variations, derived from climate change, suggest the loss of environmental niches for these species that are not currently threatened but are not adequately protected by conservation units. The loss of environmental niches increases spatial sympatry which represents a new challenge for anurans and the conservation of their populations.

Resumen Introducción: Leptodactylus latinasus y Physalaemus cuqui son especies de anuros simpátricos con requerimientos ambientales similares y modos reproductivos contrastantes. La configuración climática determina los patrones de distribución y promueve la simpatría de los nichos ambientales, pero la especificidad/selectividad determina el éxito de los modos reproductivos. Los modelos de distribución de especies (MDE) son una herramienta valiosa para predecir distribuciones espacio-temporales basadas en la extrapolación de predictores ambientales. Objetivos: Determinar la distribución espacio-temporal de los nichos ambientales y evaluar si las áreas protegidas de la base de Datos Mundial de Áreas Protegidas (DMAP) permiten la conservación de estas especies en el escenario actual y futuro. Métodos: Aplicamos diferentes algoritmos para predecir la distribución y superposición espacio-temporal de nichos ambientales de L. latinasus y P. cuqui dentro de América del Sur en el último máximo glacial (UGM), Holoceno medio, actual y futuro. Evaluamos el estado de conservación de ambas especies con las unidades de conservación de la DMAP. Resultados: Todos los algoritmos aplicados mostraron un alto rendimiento para ambas especies (TSS = 0.87, AUC = 0.95). Las predicciones de L. latinasus mostraron amplios nichos ambientales desde LGM hasta el escenario actual (49 % de nichos estables, 37 % de nichos ganados y 13 % de nichos perdidos), sugiriendo fidelidad histórica por regiones climático-ambientales estables. En la transición actual-futura L. latinasus incrementaría la cantidad de nichos estables (70 %) y perdidos (20 %), sugiriendo fidelidad por regiones de tierras bajas y la posible tendencia hacia el microendemismo. P. cuqui pierde nichos ambientales desde el LGM al escenario actual (25 %) y en la transición actual-futura (63 %), incrementando la simpatría ambiental entre ambas especies; 31 % de superposición espacial en el escenario actual y 70 % en el futuro. Conclusión: Los eventos de sequía extrema y las variaciones de precipitaciones, derivados del cambio climático, sugieren la pérdida de nichos ambientales para estas especies, actualmente no se encuentran amenazadas, pero no están adecuadamente protegidas por las unidades de conservación. La pérdida de nichos ambientales aumenta la simpatría espacial que representa un nuevo desafío para estos anuros y la conservación de sus poblaciones.

Environmental impact of infant feeding type, accessories used and maternal dietary habits: The GREEN MOTHER-I project, a cross-sectional study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Breastfeeding (BF) is the healthiest form of nutrition for babies and is recommended exclusively (EBF) for at least the first six months of life. The carbon footprint of formula feeding (FF) has been studied, but that of BF is unknown. AIM: To identify the environmental impact of three types of infant feeding taking into account the accessories needed and the diet of postpartum women in the baby's first month of life. METHODS: This is a multicentre, cross-sectional study conducted in the Barcelona North Metropolitan Area (Catalonia, Spain). The participating sites are primary care settings that will recruit 408 postpartum women (4-6 weeks) as per inclusion/exclusion criteria. The data will be collected through a GREEN MOTHER Survey that includes 4 dimensions: 1) socio-demographic and clinical data; 2) data on the newborn and accessories used in infant feeding; 3) general data on the mother's diet (food consumption habits), and 4) recording of 24 h of the mother's diet. The data analysis will be performed to check the prevalence of infant feeding types at birth and month 1, as well as a comparative analysis of three types of infant feeding on environmental impact (climate change; water consumption, and scarcity). ETHICS: This project was approved by the Research Ethics Committee of the Jordi Gol i Gurina University Institute Foundation for Primary Health Care Research (IDIAP) under code 22/101-P dated 22/02/2023. DISCUSSION: A second phase of the GREEN MOTHER study is planned, which will consist of an educational intervention to promote breastfeeding, nutrition and sustainability. This intervention will be based on the results obtained in Phase I. We expect that the project results - through the publication and dissemination of scientific papers and reports among relevant stakeholders (association of community midwives, healthcare and primary care attention professionals and the public) - will increase public awareness of breastfeeding and its impact on sustainability. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Both phases of the GREEN MOTHER study protocol were registered in ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT05729581.

Changes in soil and plant carbon pools after 9 years of experimental summer warming and increased snow depth.

Climate change can have positive and negative effects on the carbon pools and budgets in soil and plant fractions, but net effects are unclear and expected to vary widely within the arctic. We report responses after nine years (2012-2021) of increased snow depth (snow fences) and summer warming (open top chambers) and the combination on soil and plant carbon pools within a tundra ecosystem in West Greenland. Data included characteristics of depth-specific soil samples, including the rhizosphere soil, as well as vegetation responses of NDVI-derived traits, plant species cover and aboveground biomass, litter and roots. Furthermore, natural vegetation growth through the study period was quantified based on time-integrated NDVI Landsat 8 satellite imagery. Our results showed that summer warming resulted in a significant and positive vegetation response driven by the deciduous low shrub Betula nana (no other vascular plant species), while snow addition alone resulted in a significant negative response for Betula. A significant positive effect of summer warming was also observed for moss biomass, possibly driven increasing shade by Betula. The aboveground effects cascaded to belowground traits. The rhizosphere soil characteristics differed from those of the bulk soil regardless of treatment. Only the rhizosphere fraction showed responses to treatment, as soil organic C stock increased in near-surface and top 20 cm with summer warming. We observed no belowground effects from snow addition. The study highlights the plant species response to treatment followed by impacts on belowground C pools, mainly driven by dead fine roots via Betula nana. We conclude that the summer warming treatment and snow addition treatment separately showed opposing effects on ecosystem C pools, with lack of interactive effects between main factors in the combination treatment. Furthermore, changes in soil C are more clearly observed in the rhizosphere soil fraction, which should receive more attention in the future.

Insights into climate change dynamics: A tourism climate index-based evaluation of Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan.

The tourism industry is a significant contribution to the economy of many countries, including Pakistan. However, its activities often have a negative impact on the environment, particularly related to climate change. Notably, Pakistan ranks fifth among countries most affected by climate change, which requires a targeted analysis of the tourism sector to determine its potential impacts. Despite the critical nature of this issue, there is currently a lack of research that examines how climate change specifically impacts Pakistan's tourism industry. This study aims to address this gap by using the Tourism Climate Index (TCI) to assess the impact of climate change on the suitability of different tourism locations across the country. Our results show that popular tourist destinations such as Gilgit-Baltistan experience their peak season in the warmer third quarter (summer), which corresponds to the highest observed TCI values. This suggests that warmer temperatures could boost tourism activity and spending in these regions. Furthermore, our analysis shows that air temperature plays a crucial role in determining tourist comfort levels and significantly influences tourists' TCI values and sensory experiences. The results of this study show that the TCI methodology can be an effective tool for further research into the geographical impacts of climate change on tourism. By identifying necessary changes due to climatic changes, future studies could provide valuable insights into how the tourism industry can adapt to and reduce its environmental footprint.

Analysis of lake changes and their influence factors in the three river regions from 2000 to 2020 in the Sanjiangyuan Region, China.

An important factor for investigating climate change in the Sanjiangyuan is the evolution of the spatio-temporal pattern of lakes in this region. The present study used the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform to extract lakes from 2000 to 2020. The present approach created a lake distribution dataset yearly and analyzed spatial and temporal patterns over 20 years. The analysis of lakes focused on the reaction of the Sanjiangyuan Lakes area to changes in climate, glaciers, and permafrost. The findings indicated that the Sanjiangyuan region contains 143 lakes, the majority of which are predominantly small, measuring 1-10 km2. The small lakes account for 60.14 % of the total and are primarily located in the source regions of the Yangtze River and Yellow River. The findings demonstrated that the Sanjiangyuan lakes experienced a significant expansion over the past two decades, particularly from 2011 to 2020. These lakes are divided into expanded, atrophic, and stable categories. Expanded lakes showed significant inter-annual trends in expansion, while atrophic lakes showed smaller fluctuations. The area of stable lakes experienced a consistent decline after 2010, despite a consistent expansion tendency from 2001 to 2010. Moreover, the results indicated that alterations in the size of glaciers and ice reserves in the Sanjiangyuan region have had the greatest influence on the fluctuation in lake area. Among the factors that affect the climate, temperature had the most significant effect on the change in lake area, followed by precipitation.

The socioeconomic impact of climate change in developing countries over the next decades: A literature survey.

Extreme weather events, rising temperatures, and shifting rainfall patterns pose significant threats to developing countries with fragile social, economic, and political structures. While research has intensified on socioeconomic impacts of climate change, existing survey studies exhibit substantial scope variations and seldom concurrently analyze these impacts, hindering policy coordination. This study reviews literature on the broad spectrum of socioeconomic impacts of climate change to discern trends and underscore areas requiring additional attention. The survey unveils that, across various socioeconomic indicators, the most vulnerable groups bear a disproportionate burden of climate change, with long-term impacts forecasted to surpass medium-term effects. Adaptation and mitigation options are feasible but must be tailored to local contexts.

Assessment of smallholder rice farmers' adaptation strategies to climate change in Kebbi state, Nigeria.

The future of food production in Nigeria where smallholding agriculture is prevalent is threatened by climate change. Despite the threats, Nigeria has no specific plan or policy to combat it. Therefore, understanding how smallholder farmers adjust to the changing climate and the factors that influence their adaptation choices will facilitate developing a policy to tackle climate change. This study therefore evaluates climate change adaptation techniques among smallholder rice farmers in Kebbi state, Nigeria. The study employs a simple random sampling technique to select 345 respondents. The data was analysed using multivariate probit and ordered probit regression. The findings revealed that marital status, literacy, farm size, farming experience, major occupation, extension visits, amount of credit, and access to climate information influenced adaptation strategy choice. Furthermore, marital status, literacy, household size, farm size, extension visits, and access to climate information are crucial drivers of adoption intensity. This study concludes that smallholder rice farmers in the study area adopt several practices to cope with climate change, however, farmers' intensity of adoption is low. This study recommends that stakeholders in the food systems in the study area should consider literacy, farm size, extension service, credits, and climate information in designing viable policies toward combating the vagaries of climate.

Breeding in bread-making wheat varieties for Mediterranean climate: the need to get resilient varieties.

Introduction: Being one of the "big three" most cultivated cereals in the world, wheat plays a crucial role in ensuring global food/nutrition security, supplying close to 20% of the global needs for calories and proteins. However, the increasingly large fluctuations between years in temperatures and precipitation due to climate change cause important variations in wheat production worldwide. This fact makes wheat breeding programs a tool that, far from going out of fashion, is becoming the most important solution to develop varieties that can provide humanity with the sufficient amount of food it demands without forgetting the objective of quality. Material and methods: The National Institute of Agricultural and Veterinary Research in Portugal has carried out a long-term experiment (9 years) in different locations to test four different bread-making wheat cultivars, each representing important variations in germplasm. Wheat yield and quality traits obtained by official methods were recorded in 18 different environments regarding temperature and precipitation. Results and discussion: According to the ANOVA and PCA, protein content, wet gluten, dough tenacity, and extensibility were found to be highly affected by the environment. Paiva cultivar presented a higher yield in almost all the tested environments, but its quality traits varied enormously. Contrary behavior was recorded for Valbona cultivar. Antequera cultivar, with a production ranging between 4.7 and 9.3 tons/ha and a protein content between 11 and 16.8%, seems to be the most resilient cultivar regarding both productivity and quality of the flour with reference to changes in the main climate traits. The most ancient cultivar, Roxo, released in 1996, showed the worst results in this experiment, supporting the need to continue working in wheat breeding to meet the unavoidable changes in the environment.

Climate-related health impact indicators for public health surveillance in a changing climate: a systematic review and local suitability analysis.

Climate change challenges public health. Effective management of climate-related health risks relies on robust public health surveillance (PHS) and population health indicators. Despite existing global and country-specific indicators, their integration into local PHS systems is limited, impacting decision-making. We conducted a systematic review examining population health indicators relevant to climate change impacts and their suitability for national PHS systems. Guided by a registered protocol, we searched multiple databases and included 41 articles. Of these, 35 reported morbidity indicators, and 39 reported mortality indicators. Using Chile as a case study, we identified three sets of indicators for the Chilean PHS. The high-priority set included vector-, food-, and water-borne diseases, as well as temperature-related health outcomes indicators due to their easy integration into existing PHS systems. This review highlights the importance of population health indicators in monitoring climate-related health impacts, emphasising the need for local contextual factors to guide indicator selection. Funding: This research project was partly funded by ANID Chile and University College London. None of these sources had any involvement in the research conceptualisation, design, or interpretation of the results.

Long-term trends in human-induced water storage changes for China detected from GRACE data.

Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) plays a pivotal role in water resource management by providing a comprehensive measure of both surface water and groundwater availability. This study investigates changes in TWS driven by human activities from 2003 to 2023, and forecasts future TWS trends under various climate change and development scenarios. Our findings reveal a continuous decline in China's TWS since 2003, with an average annual decrease of approximately 1.36 mm. This reduction is primarily attributed to the combined effects of climate change and human activities, including irrigation, industrial water use, and domestic water consumption. Notably, TWS exhibits significant seasonal and annual fluctuations, with variations ranging ±10 mm. For the future period (2024-2030), we project greater disparities between water resource supply and demand in specific years for the Songliao, Southwest, and Yangtze basins. Consequently, future water resource management must prioritize water conservation during wet seasons, particularly in years when supply-demand conflicts for limited water resources intensify. This study is valuable for effective planning and sustainable utilization of water resources.

Planetary Health: A New Approach to Healing the Anthropocene.

The Anthropocene is a proposed geological epoch reflecting large-scale impact of human activity on the Earth's natural systems. This era is also characterized other significant threats to ecological wellbeing that are less evident in the sedimentary records. Extensive environmental changes with industrialization and urbanization have also contributed to declining biodiversity and microbial dysbiosis in essential ecosystems-the original and foundational lifeforms that continue to sustain virtually all ecosystems today, including our own. These changes, along with numerous other social and ecological disruptions at all scales are implicated in the rising rates of physical and mental ill-health, particularly the immune dysregulation and noncommunicable diseases that characterize the Anthropocene. This narrative review considers how urgent structural changes in how we live are essential for the future of human health and flourishing of all of life on Earth. It explores planetary health as a solutions-oriented, transdisciplinary field and social movement aimed at addressing these interconnected these global challenges through integrated ecological approaches. Planetary health considers not only the vital biophysical "planetary boundaries" required to support human flourishing, but also the upstream social, political, and economic ecosystems that support (or undermine) wellbeing at all scales. The value systems and the worldviews that have contributed to our global challenges are a central consideration in the planetary health agenda- emphasizing the imperative to address structural inequalities, injustices, and the social, emotional, and spiritual dimensions of unrealized human potential. Promoting these inner assets is essential for human flourishing and for fostering the cultural capacities necessary to ensure sustainable planetary health.

Occupational, environmental, and toxicological health risks of mining metals for lithium-ion batteries: a narrative review of the Pubmed database.

BACKGROUND: The global market for lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) is growing exponentially, resulting in an increase in mining activities for the metals needed for manufacturing LIBs. Cobalt, lithium, manganese, and nickel are four of the metals most used in the construction of LIBs, and each has known toxicological risks associated with exposure. Mining for these metals poses potential human health risks via occupational and environmental exposures; however, there is a paucity of data surrounding the risks of increasing mining activity. The objective of this review was to characterize these risks. METHODS: We conducted a review of the literature via a systematic search of the PubMed database on the health effects of mining for cobalt, lithium, manganese, and nickel. We included articles that (1) reported original research, (2) reported outcomes directly related to human health, (3) assessed exposure to mining for cobalt, lithium, manganese, or nickel, and (4) had an available English translation. We excluded all other articles. Our search identified 183 relevant articles. RESULTS: Toxicological hazards were reported in 110 studies. Exposure to cobalt and nickel mining were most associated with respiratory toxicity, while exposure to manganese mining was most associated with neurologic toxicity. Notably, no articles were identified that assessed lithium toxicity associated with mining exposure. Traumatic hazards were reported in six studies. Three articles reported infectious disease hazards, while six studies reported effects on mental health. Several studies reported increased health risks in children compared to adults. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this review suggest that occupational and environmental exposure to mining metals used in LIBs presents significant risks to human health that result in both acute and chronic toxicities. Further research is needed to better characterize these risks, particularly regarding lithium mining.

Response Characteristics and Community Assembly Mechanisms of nirS-Type Denitrifiers in the Alpine Wetland under Simulated Precipitation Conditions.

The nitrogen cycling process in alpine wetlands is profoundly affected by precipitation changes, yet the dynamic response mechanism of denitrifiers to long-term precipitation shifts in the alpine wetland of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau remains enigmatic. Utilizing high-throughput sequencing analysis of nirS-type functional genes, this study delved into the dynamic response mechanism of nirS-type denitrifiers to precipitation changes in the alpine wetland of Qinghai Lake. The findings revealed that nirS-type denitrifiers in the alpine wetland of Qinghai Lake were primarily Proteobacteria, and Alpha diversity exhibited a negative correlation with the precipitation gradient, with deterministic processes predominating in the community assembly of denitrifying microbes. A 50% increase in rainfall shifted the community assembly process of denitrifiers from deterministic to stochastic. Dominant microflora at the genus level responded significantly to precipitation changes, with aerobic bacteria comprising the majority of differentially abundant taxa (55.56%). As precipitation increased, the complexity of the microbial interaction network decreased, and a 25% reduction in precipitation notably elevated the relative abundance of three key functional groups: chemoheterotrophic, aerobic chemoheterotrophic, and nitrogen fixation. Precipitation notably emerged as the primary regulator of nirS-type denitrifiers in the alpine wetland of Qinghai Lake, accounting for 51% of the variation in community composition. In summary, this study offers a fresh perspective for investigating the ecological processes of nitrogen cycling in alpine ecosystems by examining the diversity and community composition of nirS-type denitrifiers in response to precipitation changes.

Predicting the Current and Future Distribution of Monolepta signata (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) Based on the Maximum Entropy Model.

Monolepta signata is a polyphagous and highly destructive agricultural pest, currently only distributed in Asia. In its place of origin, it poses a serious threat to important economic crops, for instance, maize (Zea mays L.) and cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.). Based on morphological and molecular data research, it has been found that M. quadriguttata (Motschulsky), M. hieroglyphica (Motschulsky), and M. signata are actually the same species. This discovery means that the range of this pest will expand, and it also increases the risk of it spreading to non-native areas worldwide. It is crucial for global agricultural production to understand which countries and regions are susceptible to invasion by M. signata and to formulate corresponding prevention, control, and monitoring strategies. This study uses the maximum entropy model, combined with bioclimatic variables and elevation, to predict the potentially suitable areas and diffusion patterns of M. signata worldwide. The results indicate that in its suitable area, M. signata is mainly affected by three key climatic factors: Precipitation of Wettest Month (bio13), Mean Temperature of Warmest Quarter (bio10), and Temperature Seasonality (bio4). Under the current status, the total suitable region of M. signata is 252,276.71 × 104 km2. In addition to its native Asia, this pest has potentially suitable areas in Oceania, South America, North America, and Africa. In the future, with climate change, the suitable area of M. signata will expand to high-latitude areas and inland areas. This study found that by the 2070s, under the SSP5-8.5 climate scenario, the change in the potentially suitable area of this insect is the largest. By identifying the potentially suitable areas and key climatic factors of M. signata, we can provide theoretical and technical support to the government, enabling them to more effectively formulate strategies to deal with the spread, outbreak, and invasion of M. signata.

Mapping the Distribution of Curculio davidi Fairmaire 1878 under Climate Change via Geographical Data and the MaxEnt Model (CMIP6).

Curculio davidi is a major pest in chestnut-producing regions in China, and there have been many studies on its occurrence, biological characteristics, and management strategies. However, few of them have focused on the distribution changes of the pest under climate change. In this study, the MaxEnt model (version 3.3.4) and ArcGIS software (version 10.8) were first employed to map the current and future (2050 s and 2080 s) suitable habitat distribution of the weevil under climate change (CMIP 6: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). The results indicate that the highly suitable areas for C. davidi are mainly concentrated in Hubei, Henan, Anhui, Jiangxi, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, the coastal areas of Shandong, and eastern Guizhou, northwestern Hunan, and northeastern Sichuan provinces in China. Through the Jackknife test of 19 climate factors, six climate factors affecting the distribution of C. davidi were identified, with precipitation from July (Prec7), precipitation of warmest quarter (Bio18), and temperature seasonality (standard deviation × 100) (Bio4) contributing a combined percentage of 86.3%. Under three different climate scenarios (CMIP 6: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5), the area of moderately suitable regions is projected to increase by 22.12-27.33% in the 2050 s and by 17.80-38.22% in the 2080 s compared to the current distribution, while the area of highly suitable regions shows a shrinking trend. This study provides data support for the management strategies of C. davidi and offers new insights into the dynamic changes of similar forestry pests.

Aedes (Ochlerotatus) scapularis, Aedes japonicus japonicus, and Aedes (Fredwardsius) vittatus (Diptera: Culicidae): Three Neglected Mosquitoes with Potential Global Health Risks.

More than 3550 species of mosquitoes are known worldwide, and only a fraction is involved in the transmission of arboviruses. Mosquitoes in sylvatic and semi-sylvatic habitats may rapidly adapt to urban parks and metropolitan environments, increasing human contact. Many of these mosquitoes have been found naturally infected with arboviruses from the Alphaviridae, Flaviviridae, and Bunyaviridae families, with many being the cause of medically important diseases. However, there is a gap in knowledge about the vector status of newly invasive species and their potential threat to human and domestic animal populations. Due to their rapid distribution, adaptation to urban environments, and anthropophilic habits, some neglected mosquito species may deserve more attention regarding their role as secondary vectors. Taking these factors into account, we focus here on Aedes (Ochlerotatus) scapularis (Rondani), Aedes japonicus japonicus (Theobald), and Aedes (Fredwardsius) vittatus (Bigot) as species that have the potential to become important disease vectors. We further discuss the importance of these neglected mosquitoes and how factors such as urbanization, climate change, and globalization profoundly alter the dynamics of disease transmission and may increase the participation of neglected species in propagating diseases.

A Generalizable Prioritization Protocol for Climate-Sensitive Zoonotic Diseases.

Emerging and re-emerging zoonotic diseases pose a significant threat to global health and economic security. This threat is further aggravated by amplifying drivers of change, including climate hazards and landscape alterations induced by climate change. Given the complex relationships between climate change and zoonotic disease health outcomes, a structured decision-making process is required to effectively identify pathogens of greatest concern to prioritize prevention and surveillance efforts. Here, we describe a workshop-based expert elicitation process in six steps to prioritize climate-sensitive zoonoses based on a structured approach to defining criteria for climate sensitivity. Fuzzy analytical hierarchy process methodology is used to analyze data provided by experts across human, animal, and environmental health sectors accounting for uncertainties at different stages of the prioritization process. We also present a new interactive expert elicitation interface that facilitates data collection and real-time visualization of prioritization results. The novel approach presented in this paper offers a generalized platform for prioritizing climate-sensitive zoonoses at a national or regional level. This allows for a structured decision-making support process when allocating limited financial and personnel resources to enhance preparedness and response to zoonotic diseases amplified by climate change.

Increasing environmental variability inhibits evolutionary rescue in a long-lived vertebrate.

Evolutionary rescue, whereby adaptive evolutionary change rescues populations from extinction, is theorized to enable imperiled animal populations to persist under increasing anthropogenic change. Despite a large body of evidence in theoretical and laboratory settings, the potential for evolutionary rescue to be a viable adaptation process for free-ranging animals remains unknown. Here, we leverage a 38-year dataset following the fates of 53,959 Magellanic penguins (Spheniscus magellanicus) to investigate whether a free-ranging vertebrate species can morphologically adapt to long-term environmental change sufficiently to promote population persistence. Despite strong selective pressures, we found that penguins did not adapt morphologically to long-term environmental changes, leading to projected population extirpation. Fluctuating selection benefited larger penguins in some environmental contexts, and smaller penguins in others, ultimately mitigating their ability to adapt under increasing environmental variability. Under future climate projections, we found that the species cannot be rescued by adaptation, suggesting similar constraints for other long-lived species. Such results reveal how fluctuating selection driven by environmental variability can inhibit adaptation under long-term environmental change. Our eco-evolutionary approach helps explain the lack of adaptation and evolutionary rescue in response to environmental change observed in many animal species.

Linking physiology, epidemiology, and demography: Understanding how lianas outcompete trees in a changing world.

Extending and safeguarding tropical forest ecosystems is critical for combating climate change and biodiversity loss. One of its constituents, lianas, is spreading and increasing in abundance on a global scale. This is particularly concerning as lianas negatively impact forests' carbon fluxes, dynamics, and overall resilience, potentially exacerbating both crises. While possibly linked to climate-change-induced atmospheric CO2 elevation and drought intensification, the reasons behind their increasing abundance remain elusive. Prior research shows distinct physiological differences between lianas and trees, but it is unclear whether these differences confer a demographic advantage to lianas with climate change. Guided by extensive datasets collected in Panamanian tropical forests, we developed a tractable model integrating physiology, demography, and epidemiology. Our findings suggest that CO2 fertilization, a climate change factor promoting forest productivity, gives lianas a demographic advantage. Conversely, factors such as extreme drought generally cause a decrease in liana prevalence. Such a decline in liana prevalence is expected from a physiological point of view because lianas have drought-sensitive traits. However, our analysis underscores the importance of not exclusively relying on physiological processes, as interactions with demographic mechanisms (i.e., the forest structure) can contrast these expectations, causing an increase in lianas with drought. Similarly, our results emphasize that identical physiological responses between lianas and trees still lead to liana increase. Even if lianas exhibit collinear but weaker responses in their performance compared to trees, a temporary liana prevalence increase might manifest driven by the faster response time of lianas imposed by their distinct life-history strategies than trees.