Concurrent effects of flooding regimes and floodwater quality on sediment properties in a Yangtze River-connected floodplain wetland: Insights from field investigations during 2011-2020.

Changes in flood regimes, floodwater quality, and macrophyte types may affect sediment characteristics post-flooding. However, few studies have attempted to unravel their complex influences in floodplain wetlands. From 2011 to 2020, the physical and chemical properties of surface layer sediment pre- and post-flooding was investigated through field surveys in the Dongting Lake wetland. Results indicated that the pre-flooding soil total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN) exhibited an increasing trend during 2011-2020. Soil TP increased post-flooding relative to that pre-flooding. The changes in TN, sediment organic matter (SOM), sediment moisture content (SMC), and sediment bulk density (SBD) fluctuated over the years. The best-fitting multi-regression model demonstrated that the changes in sediment variables post-flooding showed a parabolic trajectory along the inundation duration (ID), except for SMC. Changes in soil properties post-flooding were negatively correlated with ID for sediment with a low IDs (<148 days). Meanwhile, changes in soil properties post flooding were positively correlated with ID for sediment with a high IDs (>193 days). Changes in SBD and SOM post-flooding were positively influenced by the TP content in the floodwater. These findings indicate that changes in the flooding regime, and water quality generated by anthropogenic disturbances such as the Three Gorges Dam significantly affect sediment properties, and subsequently influence the ecological functions of the Dongting Lake wetland.

Integrated Direct and Indirect Flood Risk Modeling: Development and Sensitivity Analysis.

In this article, we propose an integrated direct and indirect flood risk model for small- and large-scale flood events, allowing for dynamic modeling of total economic losses from a flood event to a full economic recovery. A novel approach is taken that translates direct losses of both capital and labor into production losses using the Cobb-Douglas production function, aiming at improved consistency in loss accounting. The recovery of the economy is modeled using a hybrid input-output model and applied to the port region of Rotterdam, using six different flood events (1/10 up to 1/10,000). This procedure allows gaining a better insight regarding the consequences of both high- and low-probability floods. The results show that in terms of expected annual damage, direct losses remain more substantial relative to the indirect losses (approximately 50% larger), but for low-probability events the indirect losses outweigh the direct losses. Furthermore, we explored parameter uncertainty using a global sensitivity analysis, and varied critical assumptions in the modeling framework related to, among others, flood duration and labor recovery, using a scenario approach. Our findings have two important implications for disaster modelers and practitioners. First, high-probability events are qualitatively different from low-probability events in terms of the scale of damages and full recovery period. Second, there are substantial differences in parameter influence between high-probability and low-probability flood modeling. These findings suggest that a detailed approach is required when assessing the flood risk for a specific region.