Airborne particulate matter integral assessment in Magdalena department, Colombia: Patterns, health impact, and policy management.

The relevance of atmospheric particulate matter (PM) to health and the environment is widely known. Long-term studies are necessary for understanding current and future trends in air quality management. This study aimed to assess the long-term PM concentration in the Magdalena department (Colombia). It focused on the following aspects: i) spatiotemporal patterns, ii) correlation with meteorology, iii) compliance with standards, iv) temporal trends over time, v) impact on health, and vi) impact of policy management. Fifteen stations from 2003 to 2021 were analyzed. Spearman-Rho and Mann-Kendall methods were used to correlate concentration with meteorology. The temporal and five-year moving trends were determined, and the trend magnitude was calculated using Teil-Sen. Acute respiratory infection odd ratios and risk of cancer associated with PM concentration were used to assess the impact on health. The study found that the maximum PM10 concentration was 194.5 µg/m3, and the minimum was 3 µg/m3. In all stations, a negative correlation was observed between PM10 and atmospheric water content, while the wind speed and temperature showed a positive correlation. The global trends indicated an increasing value, with five fluctuations in five-year moving trends, consistent with PM sources and socio-economic behavior. PM concentrations were found to comply with national standard; however, the results showed a potential impact on population health. The management regulation had a limited impact on increasing concentration. Considering that national regulations tend to converge towards WHO standards, the study area must create a management program to ensure compliance.

Random Forest in plant genetics and breeding: an application in tomato as a model crop / Random Forest en genética y mejoramiento genético de plantas: una aplicación en tomate como cultivo modelo

ABSTRACT Random Forest approaches have been used in phenotyping at both morphological and metabolic levels and in genomics studies, but direct applications in practical situations of plant genetics and breeding are scarce. Random Forest was compared with Discriminant Analysis for its ability in classifying tomato individuals belonging to different breeding populations, exclusively based on phenotypic fruit quality traits. In order to take into account different steps in breeding programs, two populations were assayed. One was composed by a set of RILs derived from an interspecific tomato cross, and the other was composed by two of these RILs and the corresponding F1, F2 and backcross generations. Being tomato an autogamous species, the first population was considered a final step in breeding programs because promising genotypes are being evaluated for putative commercial release as new cultivars. Meanwhile, the second one, in which new variation is being generated, was considered as an initial step. Both Random Forest and Discriminant Analysis were able to classify populations with the aim of evaluating general variability and identifying the traits that most contribute to this variability. However, overall errors in classification were lower for Random Forest. When comparing the adequacy of classification between populations, errors of both statistical analyses were greater in the second population than in the first one, though Random Forest was more precise than Discriminant Analysis even in this initial step of plant breeding programs. Random Forest allowed breeders to get a reliable classification of tomato individuals belonging to different breeding populations.

RESUMEN Los enfoques de Random Forest se han utilizado en la fenotipificación, tanto a nivel morfológico como metabólico, y en estudios de genómica, pero las aplicaciones directas en situaciones prácticas de fitomejoramiento y genética son escasas. Random Forest se comparó con el Análisis Discriminante por su capacidad en la clasificación de individuos de tomate pertenecientes a diferentes poblaciones de mejoramiento, exclusivamente en función de los rasgos fenotípicos de calidad de la fruta. Para tener en cuenta los diferentes pasos en los programas de mejoramiento, se ensayaron dos poblaciones. Una estaba compuesta por un conjunto de RILs derivadas de un cruce interespecífico de tomate, y la otra estaba compuesta por dos de estas RILs y las correspondientes generaciones F1, F2 y retrocruzas. Siendo el tomate una especie autógama, la primera población se consideró un paso final en los programas de mejoramiento porque se están evaluando genotipos prometedores para su lanzamiento comercial putativo como nuevos cultivares. Mientras tanto, la segunda, en la que se está generando nueva variación, se consideró como un paso inicial. Tanto Random Forest como Análisis Discriminante pudieron clasificar poblaciones con el objetivo de evaluar la variabilidad general e identificar los rasgos que más contribuyen a esta variabilidad. Sin embargo, los errores generales en la clasificación fueron menores para Random Forest. Al comparar la adecuación de la clasificación entre poblaciones, los errores de ambos análisis estadísticos fueron mayores en la segunda población que en la primera, aunque Random Forest fue más preciso que el Análisis Discriminante incluso en este paso inicial de los programas de fitomejoramiento. Random Forest permitió a los criadores obtener una clasificación fiable de individuos de tomate pertenecientes a diferentes poblaciones de cría.

Estimating the Lambda measure in multiple-merger coalescents.

Multiple-merger coalescents, also known as Λ-coalescents, have been used to describe the genealogy of populations that have a skewed offspring distribution or that undergo strong selection. Inferring the characteristic measure Λ, which describes the rates of the multiple-merger events, is key to understand these processes. So far, most inference methods only work for some particular families of Λ-coalescents that are described by only one parameter, but not for more general models. This article is devoted to the construction of a non-parametric estimator of the density of Λ that is based on the observation at a single time of the so-called Site Frequency Spectrum (SFS), which describes the allelic frequencies in a present population sample. First, we produce estimates of the multiple-merger rates by solving a linear system, whose coefficients are obtained by appropriately subsampling the SFS. Then, we use a technique that aggregates the information extracted from the previous step through a kernel type of re-construction to give a non-parametric estimation of the measure Λ. We give a consistency result of this estimator under mild conditions on the behavior of Λ around 0. We also show some numerical examples of how our method performs.

Biopolymer Non-Parametric Analysis: A Degradation Study under Accelerated Destructive Tests.

The degradation of biopolymers such as polylactic acid (PLA) has been studied for several years; however, the results regarding the mechanism of degradation are not completely understood yet. PLA is easily processed by traditional techniques including injection molding, blow molding, extrusion, and thermoforming; in this research, the extrusion and injection molding processes were used to produce PLA samples for accelerated destructive testing. The methodology employed consisted of carrying out material testing under the guidelines of several ASTM standards; this research hypothesized that the effects of UV light, humidity, and temperature exposure have a statistical difference in the PLA degradation rate. The multivariate analysis of non-parametric data is presented as an alternative to multivariate analysis, in which the data do not satisfy the essential assumptions of a regular MANOVA, such as multivariate normality. A package in the R software that allows the user to perform a non-parametric multivariate analysis when necessary was used. This paper presents a study to determine if there is a significant difference in the degradation rate after 2000 h of accelerated degradation of a biopolymer using the multivariate and non-parametric analyses of variance. The combination of the statistical techniques, multivariate analysis of variance and repeated measures, provided information for a better understanding of the degradation path of the biopolymer.

Behavioral fractal method associated with GPS tracking to spatial activity sequences of grazing cattle

Global positioning and geographic information systems are essential for studying foraging animal behavior. This study aims to implement a fractal self-similarity and chaos game computational efficient methodology to determine the behavior-associated fractal using GPS data of activity sequences in spatial ranges of livestock movement trajectories in interaction with habitat factors. Six cows were randomly selected with an average weight of 480 kg, maintained under the same conditions, and a GPS-equipped collar was installed, programmed at intervals of 1 min and an average of 9 h daylight. Roughly 192810 registries and an average of 32135 signals per cow from trajectory tracking in spatial activity sequencing were used as a variable of interest in the fractal characterization methodology. Spatial patterns were evaluated using the Morán's spatial autocorrelation indices, cluster, and non-parametric statistics, evaluating deterministic spatial patterns of preferential activities associated to spatial ranges of less than 7.1 m (resting 42 %, grazing 38 %). GPS information was refined through spatial ranges and changes in activities under resting, eating, traveling, and complementary schemes associated to the fractal displacement behavior of grazing cattle. This information was processed and mapped using fractal self-similarity rules in the Sierpinski triangle to determine the typical fractal of spatial activities per animal in the habitat. The particular fractal record of each bovine as a function of trajectory sequences was mapped for binary image matrices, registering a good classification (83 %) of the animals by breed and climatological cycle, using information from the sequencing of spatial activities associated to the preferred behavior in the habitat.

Risk Assessment in Monitoring of Water Analysis of a Brazilian River.

This study aimed to introduce non-parametric tests and guard bands to assess the compliance of some river water properties with Brazilian environmental regulations. Due to the heterogeneity of the measurands pH, Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD), manganese molar concentration, and Escherichia coli, which could be wrongly treated as outliers, as well as the non-Gaussian data, robust methods were used to calculate the measurement uncertainty. Next, based on guard bands, the compliance assessment was evaluated using this previous uncertainty information. For these four measurands, partial overlaps between their uncertainties and the specification limit could generate doubts about compliance. The non-parametric approach for calculating the uncertainty connected to the guard bands concept classified pH and BOD as "conform", with a risk to the consumer of up to 4.0% and 4.9%, respectively; in contrast, manganese molar concentration and Escherichia coli were "not conform", with a risk to the consumer of up to 25% and 7.4%, respectively. The methodology proposed was satisfactory because it considered the natural heterogeneity of data with non-Gaussian behavior instead of wrongly excluding outliers. In an unprecedented way, two connected statistical approaches shed light on the measurement uncertainty in compliance assessment of water analysis.

A Random Forest-Based Genome-Wide Scan Reveals Fertility-Related Candidate Genes and Potential Inter-Chromosomal Epistatic Regions Associated With Age at First Calving in Nellore Cattle.

This study aimed to perform a genome-wide association analysis (GWAS) using the Random Forest (RF) approach for scanning candidate genes for age at first calving (AFC) in Nellore cattle. Additionally, potential epistatic effects were investigated using linear mixed models with pairwise interactions between all markers with high importance scores within the tree ensemble non-linear structure. Data from Nellore cattle were used, including records of animals born between 1984 and 2015 and raised in commercial herds located in different regions of Brazil. The estimated breeding values (EBV) were computed and used as the response variable in the genomic analyses. After quality control, the remaining number of animals and SNPs considered were 3,174 and 360,130, respectively. Five independent RF analyses were carried out, considering different initialization seeds. The importance score of each SNP was averaged across the independent RF analyses to rank the markers according to their predictive relevance. A total of 117 SNPs associated with AFC were identified, which spanned 10 autosomes (2, 3, 5, 10, 11, 17, 18, 21, 24, and 25). In total, 23 non-overlapping genomic regions embedded 262 candidate genes for AFC. Enrichment analysis and previous evidence in the literature revealed that many candidate genes annotated close to the lead SNPs have key roles in fertility, including embryo pre-implantation and development, embryonic viability, male germinal cell maturation, and pheromone recognition. Furthermore, some genomic regions previously associated with fertility and growth traits in Nellore cattle were also detected in the present study, reinforcing the effectiveness of RF for pre-screening candidate regions associated with complex traits. Complementary analyses revealed that many SNPs top-ranked in the RF-based GWAS did not present a strong marginal linear effect but are potentially involved in epistatic hotspots between genomic regions in different autosomes, remarkably in the BTAs 3, 5, 11, and 21. The reported results are expected to enhance the understanding of genetic mechanisms involved in the biological regulation of AFC in this cattle breed.

Adaptability and Stability of Safflower Genotypes for Oil Production.

The study aimed to analyze the agronomic performance of 11 safflower genotypes using adaptability and stability methods, while identifying safflower genotypes with stable behavior and a high grain yield in different environments of the Brazilian Cerrado. Ten lines and a cultivar of safflower were evaluated in four environments in the Brazilian conditions. Our results revealed the genotypes P30, P35, P9, P11, and P31 to be superior for grain yield and P43, P7, P11, and P31 to be superior for oil content. The lowest Wricke index, an indication of genotype stability, was observed for P9 (0.41%), which is considered the most stable genotype, followed by P35 (1.29%) and P31 (1.98%). For the predictability of the behavior of genotypes in the environments, P7 (80.85%), P35 (86.10%), P31 (85.90%), and P9 (97.42%) were considered predictable genotypes. The genotypes P11 (1045.6 kg ha-1 and 19.7%) and P21 (952.7 kg ha-1 and 20.6%) are recommended for cultivation in this region, considering both their grain yield and oil content. Safflower is viable to use out of season in the Brazilian Cerrado. The crop can generate profits for farmers and be used for oil production in periods of uncertain corn production.

El método de consulta a expertos en tres niveles de validación / Method for expert consultation at three levels of validation

Introducción: En muchas investigaciones científicas de las Ciencias Sociales, es usual la aplicación del método de consulta a expertos con el fin de validar escalas, enfoques, proyecciones, políticas y otros temas para la adopción de decisiones fundamentadas, aunque se constata su empleo parcial, indiscriminado e incorrecto. Objetivo: Fundamentar la necesidad de aplicar el método de consulta a expertos en tres niveles para determinar: la competencia de los expertos; la fiabilidad del instrumento empleado y el consenso entre los expertos sobre el tema abordado. Material y Métodos: Se realizó una sistematización de documentos relacionados con el empleo del método de consulta de expertos en la investigación científica, tesis de doctorado y maestría, artículos, monografías y otras publicaciones. Se aplicaron pruebas estadísticas no paramétricas. Resultados: Se constata que la aplicación del método de consulta a expertos siguiendo los procedimientos adecuados, permite elevar el rigor metodológico y su contribución en la investigación científica. Conclusiones: El método de consulta a expertos constituye una herramienta eficaz en la investigación científica siempre que se aplique con el rigor requerido(AU)

Introduction: The method for expert consultation is commonly applied to scientific research conducted in the Social Sciences to validate scales, approaches, planning, politics, and other matters in decision making; however, its incorrect, indiscriminate, and partial use is confirmed. Objective: To validate the need to apply the method for expert consultation at three levels in order to determine: the competence of experts; the reliability of the instrument used; and the consensus among experts on the topic approached. Material and Methods: Systematization of documents related to the use of the method for expert consultation in scientific research, master´s and doctoral theses, articles, monographs, and other publications. Non-parametric statistical tests were applied. Results: It is confirmed that the application of the method for expert consultation following the appropriate procedures allows for an increase in the methodological rigor and a contribution to scientific research. Conclusions: The method for expert consultation is an effective tool in scientific research provided that it is rigorously applied(AU)

Performance of richness estimators for invertebrate inventories in reservoirs.

Biological inventories combined with the estimation of species richness represent a useful tool for the analysis of the pattern of species distribution in different regions. This study aimed to (i) comparatively evaluate the performance of non-parametric richness estimators for invertebrate inventories in reservoirs between ecoregions and (ii) to assess whether the efficiency (bias, precision and accuracy indices) of the estimators is altered when applied to sites from different ecoregions. The study was conducted in the ecoregions Central Pediplano of the Borborema Plateau (Paraíba River basin) and Northern Sertaneja Depression (Piranhas-Assu River basin), semiarid region of Brazil. Six reservoirs were selected and benthic macroinvertebrates were sampled at 141 sites distributed along the littoral zone, in 4 periods (June, September, December 2014 and March 2015). The organisms were identified to the family level, except for Chironomidae, identified to the genus level. We comparatively analyzed six non-parametric richness estimators: Jackknife 1, Jackknife 2, Chao1, Chao 2, ICE, and Bootstrap, and three performance indicators: bias, precision, and accuracy. ICE and Jackknife 2 had more stable results for total species richness, but with different performance between ecoregions for bias, precision, and accuracy. Variation in performance of the estimators may be associated with differences in species richness and frequency between ecoregions. ICE and Jackknife 2 proved to be the best estimators for biological inventories of aquatic invertebrates in reservoirs in studies comparing data from different ecoregions, due to accuracy and precision, while Bootstrap is the least indicated, given greater bias and less accuracy and precision.

National Health Systems and COVID-19 Death Toll Doubling Time.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has placed stress on all National Health Systems (NHSs) worldwide. Recent studies on the disease have evaluated different variables, namely, quarantine models, mitigation efforts, damage to mental health, mortality of the population with chronic diseases, diagnosis, use of masks and social distancing, and mortality based on age. This study focused on the four NHSs recognized by the WHO. These systems are as follows: (1) The Beveridge model, (2) the Bismarck model, (3) the National Health Insurance (NHI) model, and (4) the "Out-of-Pocket" model. The study analyzes the response of the health systems to the pandemic by comparing the time in days required to double the number of disease-related deaths. The statistical analysis was limited to 56 countries representing 70% of the global population. Each country was grouped into the health system defined by the WHO. The study compared the median death toll DT, between health systems using Mood's median test method. The results show high variability of the temporal trends in each group; none of the health systems for the three analyzed periods maintain stable interquartile ranges (IQRs). Nevertheless, the results obtained show similar medians between the study groups. The COVID-19 pandemic saturates health systems regardless of their management structures, and the result measured with the time for doubling death rate variable is similar among the four NHSs.

Estimating counterfactuals for evaluation of ecological and conservation impact: an introduction to matching methods.

Matching methods encompass non-parametric approaches to estimating counterfactual states through a rigorous selection of control units with similar characteristics to units submitted to an intervention. These methods enable comparisons between treated and control units in a way that facilitates understanding of causal relationships between interventions and outcomes. Matching methods have been used only recently in ecology and conservation biology, where such applications changed the way the field investigates causal questions, for example, in impact-evaluation studies. However, the strengths and limitations of matching methods are not well understood by most ecologists and environmental scientists. Herein, we review state-of-the-art matching methods aiming to help fill this gap in understanding. First, we present relevant theoretical concepts related to matching methods and related subjects such as counterfactual states and causation. Next, we propose guidelines and strategies for the application of matching methods in ecology and conservation biology. Finally, we discuss the possibilities for future applications of matching methods in the environmental sciences.

Surface quality of furniture components using a band saw, milling machine, and two species / Qualidade superficial de componentes de móveis utilizando serra fita e fresadora e duas espécies

This study is dedicated to considering the use of eucalyptus and Ocotea porosa to produce classic-style furniture, assessing the machining time and surface quality. For such, the survey of data on the surface quality of eucalyptus and Ocotea porosa pieces was carried out through a visual assessment with the adaptation of the methodology described in standard ASTM 1666. This analysis of the wood surface quality occurred using two different species and two machining modalities (a band saw and a copy milling machine) for parts intended to produce components (feet) for classic furniture. After making the feet, the pieces of furniture were assembled and reassessed. Forty samples were selected and evaluated for initial defects through visual inspection, and the non-parametric Kruskal-Wallis statistical test was applied. The values found for surface quality were considered good quality, with more time being necessary to perform the finishing of the parts processed with the band saw than the milling machine. One may conclude thatthe milling time spent on each treatment influences the production capacity of the company, with the cuts carried out with the milling machine being faster and with better surface finishing.

Esse estudo dedicou-se a considerar a utilização de eucalipto e Ocotea porosa na produção de móveis em estilo clássico, avaliando o tempo de usinagem e a qualidade superficial. Para tal, foi realizado o levantamento de dados sobre a qualidade superficial de peças de eucalipto e Ocotea porosa, por meio de uma avaliação visual com adaptação da metodologia descrita na norma ASTM 1666. Essa análise da qualidade superficial da madeira ocorreu por meio de duas diferentes espécies e conduzido por duas modalidades de usinagem (uma serra-fita e uma fresadora copiadora) de peças destinadas a produção de componentes (pés) para móveis clássicos. Após a confecção dos pés os móveis foram montados e novamente avaliados. Selecionou-se 40 amostras, nas quais foram avaliados os defeitos iniciais por meioda inspeção visual, foi aplicada a estatística não paramétrica de Kruskal-Wallis. Os valores encontrados sobre a qualidade de superfície foram considerados de boa qualidade, sendo necessário maior tempo para realizar o acabamento nas peças processadas na serra-fita se comparado com a fresadora. Pôde-se concluir que o tempo de usinagem gasto em cada tratamento influencia na capacidade de produção da empresa, sendo mais rápidos os cortes realizados pela fresadora com melhor acabamento superficial.

Surface quality of furniture components using a band saw, milling machine, and two species / Qualidade superficial de componentes de móveis utilizando serra fita e fresadora e duas espécies

This study is dedicated to considering the use of eucalyptus and Ocotea porosa to produce classic-style furniture, assessing the machining time and surface quality. For such, the survey of data on the surface quality of eucalyptus and Ocotea porosa pieces was carried out through a visual assessment with the adaptation of the methodology described in standard ASTM 1666. This analysis of the wood surface quality occurred using two different species and two machining modalities (a band saw and a copy milling machine) for parts intended to produce components (feet) for classic furniture. After making the feet, the pieces of furniture were assembled and reassessed. Forty samples were selected and evaluated for initial defects through visual inspection, and the non-parametric Kruskal-Wallis statistical test was applied. The values found for surface quality were considered good quality, with more time being necessary to perform the finishing of the parts processed with the band saw than the milling machine. One may conclude thatthe milling time spent on each treatment influences the production capacity of the company, with the cuts carried out with the milling machine being faster and with better surface finishing.(AU)

Esse estudo dedicou-se a considerar a utilização de eucalipto e Ocotea porosa na produção de móveis em estilo clássico, avaliando o tempo de usinagem e a qualidade superficial. Para tal, foi realizado o levantamento de dados sobre a qualidade superficial de peças de eucalipto e Ocotea porosa, por meio de uma avaliação visual com adaptação da metodologia descrita na norma ASTM 1666. Essa análise da qualidade superficial da madeira ocorreu por meio de duas diferentes espécies e conduzido por duas modalidades de usinagem (uma serra-fita e uma fresadora copiadora) de peças destinadas a produção de componentes (pés) para móveis clássicos. Após a confecção dos pés os móveis foram montados e novamente avaliados. Selecionou-se 40 amostras, nas quais foram avaliados os defeitos iniciais por meioda inspeção visual, foi aplicada a estatística não paramétrica de Kruskal-Wallis. Os valores encontrados sobre a qualidade de superfície foram considerados de boa qualidade, sendo necessário maior tempo para realizar o acabamento nas peças processadas na serra-fita se comparado com a fresadora. Pôde-se concluir que o tempo de usinagem gasto em cada tratamento influencia na capacidade de produção da empresa, sendo mais rápidos os cortes realizados pela fresadora com melhor acabamento superficial.(AU)

Círculos de Reflexión y lógica P2P: Una alternativa didáctica a la Colonización del MOOC / P2P Reflection and Logic Circles: A Didactic Alternative to MOOC Colonization

Resumen En la era digital, es importante transitar hacia una Educación Popular Transmedia. El concepto es una articulación entre la tradición histórica latinoamericana iniciada por Paulo Freire y el reconocimiento de la categoría Transmedia de Scolari (2018) como la más adecuada para definir el conjunto de saberes implicados en la vivencia activa en comunidades híbridas virtuales/análogas. En este orden, la estrategia implementa da desde el modo de enseñanza online y la constitución de comunidad del Instituto de Pensamiento y Cultura en América Latina (Ipecal) se constituye en una apuesta esencial y de sentido.

Abstract In the digital age, it is important to move towards a Transmedia People's Education. The concept is an articulation between the Latin American historical tradition, initia ted by Paulo Freire, and the recognition of the Transmedia category by Scolari (2018) as the most suitable one to define the set of knowledge involved in the active expe rience in virtual/analog hybrid communities. In this order, the strategy implemented from the online teaching mode and the community constitution of the Institute of Thought and Culture in Latin America (Ipecal) is an essential and meaningful com mitment.

Sensitivity of global major crop yields to climate variables: A non-parametric elasticity analysis.

Climate variability controls crop yield variability with impacts on food security at the local, regional and global levels. This study uses non-parametric elasticity to investigate the sensitivity of crop yields of the top four global crops (wheat, rice, maize, and soybean) to three climate variables (precipitation (PRE), potential evapotranspiration (PET), and mean air temperature (TMP)). Trends and serial correlations exist in both climate variables and crop yields over the study period (1961 to 2014). To overcome this limitation, the Trend Free Pre-Whitening (TFPW) method was applied. Crop yields are most sensitive to TMP globally. But the exact sensitivity varies across continents. The highest sensitivity regions are located in parts of the Southeast Asia. Wheat yields are more sensitive to TMP in Western Europe and Northern America, whereas maize has higher sensitivity to TMP for regions located in South America and parts of Eastern and Western Africa. Soybean is more sensitive in North and South America. The elasticities of wheat and rice yields to TMP are negative in most of the regions (i.e. increased TMP decreases yield), whereas maize witnessed positive and soybean witnessed mixed positive and negative signals depending on the region. PRE has lower influence on crop yields. The non-parametric elasticity concept is a simple and an efficient approach that complements the existing linear models methods used to detect climate change impacts on crop yields and can be used to investigate the future consequences of climate change on local to global scale agricultural production.

Spatiotemporal evolution of dengue outbreaks in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Dengue is a mosquito-borne febrile disease infecting millions of people worldwide. Identification of high-risk areas will allow public health services to concentrate their efforts in areas where outbreaks are most likely to occur. The present study focuses on describing the spatiotemporal evolution of dengue outbreaks in Brazil from 2000 to 2018. METHOD: To assess the pattern behaviour and spatiotemporal trend of dengue outbreaks, the non-parametric kernel estimator method and the Mann-Kendall test, respectively, were used. Bivariate global Moran's I statistic was used to test the spatial correlation between dengue outbreaks, temperature, precipitation and population data. RESULTS: Our results revealed that the transmission cycles of dengue outbreaks vary in different spatiotemporal scenarios, with intermittent periods of outbreaks. In the period of study, outbreak clusters were primarily concentrated in the Northeast region and the transmission of dengue extended throughout Brazil until 2018. The probability of occurrence of dengue outbreaks was higher in high temperatures. Further, these space-time fluctuations in the number of outbreaks in the different regions were probably related to the high mobility between the populations of these regions, circulating serotypes and susceptible populations. CONCLUSIONS: The distribution of dengue outbreaks is not random; it can be modified by socioeconomic and climatic moving boundaries.

The ideal frequency of temperature data collection in compostability experiments on domestic organic residues.

One of the main analytical variable to indicate the evolution and the phases of the composting process is temperature, whose constant monitoring is fundamental for decision making. However, studies usually perform collection of temperature data with a daily frequency due to the operational difficulty in obtaining this information from manually collected samples. Thus, the aim of this study was to determine the ideal frequency of temperature data collection in composting layers. Eight composting layers containing tree prunings + domestic organic residues were installed and four temperature sensors were installed in each layer. The temperature data were collected and recorded from minute to minute by means of a datalogger developed with an Arduino board during 70 days of composting. Thus, the collected temperatures were used as a pilot sample, and therefore the ideal temperature collection rate was estimated for different estimation error limits. No significant difference was found between the different collection times according to the Kruskal-Wallis test at a significance level of 5%. Therefore, the ideal collection frequency can be determined from the error limit of temperature estimation that is acceptable to the researcher.

Intra- and inter-rater reliability of Fugl-Meyer Assessment of Upper Extremity in stroke.

OBJECTIVE: The Fugl-Meyer Assessment of Upper Extremity (FMA-UE) is recommended for evaluation of sensorimotor impairment post stroke, but the item-level reliability of the scale is unknown. The study aims to determine intra- and inter-rater reliability of the FMA-UE at item-, subscale- and total score level in patients with early subacute stroke. DESIGN: Intra/inter-rater reliability. SUBJECTS: Sixty consecutively included patients with stroke (mean age 65.9 years) admitted to Central Military Hospital of Colombia, Bogota. METHODS: Two physiotherapists scored FMA-UE independently on 2 consecutive days within 10 days post stroke. A rank-based statistical method for paired ordinal data was used to assess the level of agreement, systematic and random disagreements. RESULTS: Systematic disagreements either in position or concentration were detected in 4 items of the shoulder section. The item level intra- and inter-rater agreement was high (79100%). The 70% agreement was also reached for the subscales and the total score when 13-point difference was accepted. CONCLUSION: The FMA-UE is reliable both within and between raters in patients with stroke in the early subacute phase. A wider international use of FMA-UE will allow comparison of stroke recovery between regions and countries and thereby potentially improve the quality of care and rehabilitation in persons with stroke worldwide.

Prueba de interacción en el análisis molecular de varianza / Test of interaction in the analysis of molecular variance

La diversidad genómica, expresada en las diferencias entre haplotipos moleculares de un conjunto de individuos, puede dividirse en componentes de variabilidad entre y dentro de algún factor de clasificación de los individuos. Para tal partición de varianzas, se usa análisis molecular de la varianza (AMOVA), el cual se construye a partir de las distancias multivariadas entre pares de haplotipos. El AMOVA clásico permite evaluar la significancia estadística de dos o más factores jerárquicos y consecuentemente no existe prueba de interacción entre factores. Sin embargo, existen situaciones donde los factores que clasifican a los individuos están cruzados y no anidados, es decir todos los niveles de un factor se encuentran representados en cada nivel del otro factor. Este trabajo propone una prueba estadística para evaluar la interacción entre factores cruzados en un AMOVA No-Jerárquico. La hipótesis nula de interacción establece que las diferencias moleculares entre individuos de distintos niveles de un factor son las mismas para todos los niveles del otro factor que los clasifica. La propuesta de análisis de interacción de factores a partir de distancias en un AMOVA No-Jerárquico comprende: cálculo de la matriz de distancia y partición de la misma en bloques, posterior cálculo de residuos y análisis de varianza no-paramétrico sobre los residuos. Su implementación es ilustrada en escenarios simulados y real. Los resultados sugieren que la prueba de interacción propuesta para el AMOVA No- Jerárquico presenta alta potencia.

The genomic diversity, expressed in the differences between molecular haplotypes of a group of individuals, can be divided into components of variability between and within some factor of classification of the individuals. For such variance partitioning, molecular analysis of variance (AMOVA) is used, which is constructed from the multivariate distances between pairs of haplotypes. The classical AMOVA allows the evaluation of the statistical significance of two or more hierarchical factors and consequently there is no interaction test between factors. However, there are situations where the factors that classify individuals are crossed rather than nested, that is, all the levels of a factor are represented in each level of the other one. This paper proposes a statistical test to evaluate the interaction between crossed factors in a Non-Hierarchical AMOVA. The null hypothesis of interaction establishes that the molecular differences between individuals of different levels of a factor are the same for all the levels of the other factor that classifies them. The proposed analysis of interaction in a Non- Hierarchical AMOVA includes: calculation of the distance matrix and partition of it into blocks, subsequent calculation of residuals and analysis of non-parametric variance on the residuals. Its implementation is illustrated in simulated and real scenarios. The results suggest that the proposed interaction test for the Non-Hierarchical AMOVA presents high power.