Spatiotemporal analysis of foot and mouth disease outbreaks in cattle and small ruminants in Türkiye between 2010 and 2019.

Determining the dynamics associated with foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks is important for being able to develop effective strategic plans against the disease. In this direction, spatiotemporal analysis of FMD virus (FMDV) epidemic data that occurred in Türkiye between 2010 and 2019 was carried out. Spatiotemporal analysis was performed by the space-time scan statistic using data from a total of 7,796 FMD outbreaks. Standard deviational ellipse analysis (SDE) was performed to analyse the directional trend of FMD. Five, six, and three significant and high-risk clusters were identified by the space-time cluster analysis for serotypes A, O, and Asia-1, respectively. The SDE analysis indicated that direction of FMD transmission was northeast to southwest. A significant decrease in the number of outbreaks and cases were observed between 2014 and 2019 compared to 2010-2013 (p = 0.010). Most of the serotype A, serotype O, and serotype Asia-1 associated FMD outbreaks were observed during the dry season (April to September). Among FMD cases, cattle and small ruminants accounted for 80.75% (180,932 cases) and 19.25% (43,116 cases), respectively. Among the serotypes detected in the cases, the most frequently detected serotype was serotype O (50.84%), followed by serotypes A (35.67%) and Asia-1 (13.49%). The results obtained in this study may contribute to when and where control programs could be implemented more efficiently for the prevention and control of FMD. Developing risk-defined regional control plans by taking into account the current livestock production including uncontrolled animal movements in border regions, rural livestock, livestock trade between provinces are recommended.

Spatial analysis of chronic wasting disease in free-ranging white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Illinois, 2008-2019.

Understanding the geographic distribution and clustering of chronic wasting disease (CWD) among free-ranging white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) populations can inform disease management practices. We used a retrospective analysis of surveillance data to evaluate CWD's spatial and temporal dynamics within 16 CWD-infected northern Illinois counties. Of 42,541 deer samples collected and tested for CWD from recreational hunter harvest between 2008 and 2019, we recorded 359 (0.84%) CWD-positive samples. We observed variability in CWD cases over time and space. By county, the median CWD-positive proportion was 0.84%, varying from a minimum of 0.14% in McHenry County to a maximum of 6.28% in Boone County. Across years, there were differences among CWD-positive proportions with a median of 0.90%, ranging from a minimum of 0.27% in 2012 to a maximum of 1.60% in 2019. We used a retrospective discrete Poisson scan statistic model to evaluate the space-time clustering of CWD-positive deer. We identified a statistically significant (p < .001) primary cluster C1 (area = 23.59 km2 ; RR = 10.48), occurring from 2010 to 2015 in the north-central part of the study area, and a secondary cluster C2, occurring from 2014 to 2019 (area = 9.27 km2 ; RR = 3.88) in the north-west of the study area. Detected CWD-positive space-time clusters suggest that the risk of CWD is not random. Space-time clusters of CWD can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of the Illinois CWD management programme. The area surrounding the older C1 cluster has undergone longer and more intense CWD management compared with C2. Currently, the older C1 cluster is no longer as high risk compared with the newer cluster C2, suggesting that management efforts in C2 should be increased. However, all CWD clusters should be targeted with surveillance, prevention and management programmes, including reducing deer densities to limit further spread of CWD.

Temporal patterns and space-time cluster analysis of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) cases from 2007 to 2017 in Vietnam.

In Vietnam, Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is endemic, but no nationwide studies have been conducted to assess the monthly variations and space-time clusters of FMD. The main objective was to identify the temporal patterns and space-time clusters of FMD from 2007 to 2017 using national surveillance data in Vietnam. A total of 163,733 cases were reported from 2007 to 2017. Among them, the proportion of buffaloes (43.31% of total reported cases; 70,909 cases) was highest followed by cattle (30.11%; 49,306 cases), pigs (26.67%; 43,662 cases) and sheep/goats (0.41%; 675 cases). The serotype O was widely distributed across the country while serotype A was observed in Northeast, Central and Southern part of Vietnam while Asia 1 has been not identified since 2007. For monthly variations, most cases were observed during the dry season (from November to March) except Central Highlands. Under the spatial window was set at 50%, a total of seven clusters were identified. The primary cluster was observed from Dec 2009 to Dec 2010 in the northwest (radius: 101.67 km), showing a ratio of 3.75. The secondary cluster was detected in the northeast region (radius: 76.54 km) with a ratio of 3.53 in Feb 2017. The 3rd cluster was the largest with a radius of 176.69 km and located in the southern part of Vietnam. Interestingly, the most temporal clusters included between December and March during the study period. Our findings provide better insight into the temporal patterns and distribution of clusters of FMD in Vietnam. This study provides useful information to policymakers on the hotspot areas and timing of outbreaks. It also identifies when and where national surveillance and control programmes could be implemented more efficiently for the prevention and control of FMD.

Malaria epidemiology in Suriname from 2000 to 2016: trends, opportunities and challenges for elimination.

BACKGROUND: Suriname has experienced a significant change in malaria transmission risk and incidence over the past years. The country is now moving toward malaria elimination. The first objective of this study is to describe malaria epidemiological trends in Suriname between 2000 and 2016. The second objective is to identify spatiotemporal malaria trends in notification points between 2007 and 2016. METHODS: National malaria surveillance data resulting from active and passive screening between 2000 and 2016 were used for the temporal trend analysis. A space-time cluster analysis using SaTScan™ was conducted on Malaria Programme-data from 2007 to 2016 comparing cases (people tested positive) with controls (people tested negative). RESULTS: Suriname experienced a period of high malaria incidence during 2000-2005, followed by a steep decline in number of malaria cases from 2005 onwards. Imported malaria cases, mostly of Brazilian nationality and travelling from French Guiana, were major contributors to the reported number of cases, exceeding the national malaria burden (94.2% of the total). Most clusters in notification points are found in the border area between Suriname and French Guiana. Clustering was also found in the migrant clinic in Paramaribo. CONCLUSIONS: Suriname has successfully reduced malaria to near-elimination level in the last 17 years. However, the high malaria import rate resulting from cross-border moving migrants is a major challenge for reaching elimination. This requires continued investment in the national health system, with a focus on border screening and migrant health. A regional approach to malaria elimination within the Guianas and Brazil is urgently needed.