Proteomic insights into extracellular vesicles in ALS for therapeutic potential of Ropinirole and biomarker discovery.

BACKGROUND: Extracellular vesicles (EVs) hold the potential for elucidating the pathogenesis of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and serve as biomarkers. Notably, the comparative and longitudinal alterations in the protein profiles of EVs in serum (sEVs) and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF; cEVs) of sporadic ALS (SALS) patients remain uncharted. Ropinirole hydrochloride (ROPI; dopamine D2 receptor [D2R] agonist), a new anti-ALS drug candidate identified through induced pluripotent stem cell (iPSC)-based drug discovery, has been suggested to inhibit ALS disease progression in the Ropinirole Hydrochloride Remedy for Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ROPALS) trial, but its mechanism of action is not well understood. Therefore, we tried to reveal longitudinal changes with disease progression and the effects of ROPI on protein profiles of EVs. METHODS: We collected serum and CSF at fixed intervals from ten controls and from 20 SALS patients participating in the ROPALS trial. Comprehensive proteomic analysis of EVs, extracted from these samples, was conducted using liquid chromatography/mass spectrometer (LC/MS). Furthermore, we generated iPSC-derived astrocytes (iPasts) and performed RNA sequencing on astrocytes with or without ROPI treatment. RESULTS: The findings revealed notable disparities yet high congruity in sEVs and cEVs protein profiles concerning disease status, time and ROPI administration. In SALS, both sEVs and cEVs presented elevated levels of inflammation-related proteins but reduced levels associated with unfolded protein response (UPR). These results mirrored the longitudinal changes after disease onset and correlated with the revised ALS Functional Rating Scale (ALSFRS-R) at sampling time, suggesting a link to the onset and progression of SALS. ROPI appeared to counteract these changes, attenuating inflammation-related protein levels and boosting those tied to UPR in SALS, proposing an anti-ALS impact on EV protein profiles. Reverse translational research using iPasts indicated that these changes may partly reflect the DRD2-dependent neuroinflammatory inhibitory effects of ROPI. We have also identified biomarkers that predict diagnosis and disease progression by machine learning-driven biomarker search. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the limited sample size, this study pioneers in reporting time-series proteomic alterations in serum and CSF EVs from SALS patients, offering comprehensive insights into SALS pathogenesis, ROPI-induced changes, and potential prognostic and diagnostic biomarkers.

Goats on the Move: Evaluating Machine Learning Models for Goat Activity Analysis Using Accelerometer Data.

Putting sensors on the bodies of animals to automate animal activity recognition and gain insight into their behaviors can help improve their living conditions. Although previous hard-coded algorithms failed to classify complex time series obtained from accelerometer data, recent advances in deep learning have improved the task of animal activity recognition for the better. However, a comparative analysis of the generalizing capabilities of various models in combination with different input types has yet to be addressed. This study experimented with two techniques for transforming the segmented accelerometer data to make them more orientation-independent. The methods included calculating the magnitude of the three-axis accelerometer vector and calculating the Discrete Fourier Transform for both sets of three-axis data as the vector magnitude. Three different deep learning models were trained on this data: a Multilayer Perceptron, a Convolutional Neural Network, and an ensemble merging both called a hybrid Convolutional Neural Network. Besides mixed cross-validation, every model and input type combination was assessed on a goat-wise leave-one-out cross-validation set to evaluate its generalizing capability. Using orientation-independent data transformations gave promising results. A hybrid Convolutional Neural Network with L2-norm as the input combined the higher classification accuracy of a Convolutional Neural Network with the lower standard deviation of a Multilayer Perceptron. Most of the misclassifications occurred for behaviors that display similar accelerometer traces and minority classes, which could be improved in future work by assembling larger and more balanced datasets.

The impact of flooding from the Minjiang River on the succession of harmful algal blooms (HABs) caused by diatoms in China's offshore waters.

This study examines diatom assemblages in the Matsu Archipelago, an area influenced by Minjiang River runoff. It focuses on harmful algal blooms (HABs) that occurred between August 2021 and July 2022. Utilizing 18S rRNA metabarcoding and microscopic analysis, we observed a significant diatom bloom during early summer runoff, peaking at 5 × 105 cells L-1. The research reveals dynamic community changes during the runoff season, with dominant genera including Pseudo-nitzschia, Chaetoceros, and Skeletonema. Skeletonema cell density correlated with NO3 levels, Chaetoceros had a slight PO4 affinity, and Pseudo-nitzschia showed a negative correlation with Skeletonema. Pseudo-nitzschia, which prefers high light and pH conditions, had notably high concentrations in the flood season and in the autumn. In both, it was dominated by potential toxin-producing species - P. multistriata and P. pungens during the flooding, and P. cuspidate in the autumn. These findings highlight the intricate relationship between diatom dynamics and environmental factors, providing essential insights for managing HABs, especially Pseudo-nitzschia species, amidst environmental changes.

Promoting fairness in activity recognition algorithms for patient's monitoring and evaluation systems in healthcare.

Researchers face the challenge of defining subject selection criteria when training algorithms for human activity recognition tasks. The ongoing uncertainty revolves around which characteristics should be considered to ensure algorithmic robustness across diverse populations. This study aims to address this challenge by conducting an analysis of heterogeneity in the training data to assess the impact of physical characteristics and soft-biometric attributes on activity recognition performance. The performance of various state-of-the-art deep neural network architectures (tCNN, hybrid-LSTM, Transformer model) processing time-series data using the IntelliRehab (IRDS) dataset was evaluated. By intentionally introducing bias into the training data based on human characteristics, the objective is to identify the characteristics that influence algorithms in motion analysis. Experimental findings reveal that the CNN-LSTM model achieved the highest accuracy, reaching 88%. Moreover, models trained on heterogeneous distributions of disability attributes exhibited notably higher accuracy, reaching 51%, compared to those not considering such factors, which scored an average of 33%. These evaluations underscore the significant influence of subjects' characteristics on activity recognition performance, providing valuable insights into the algorithm's robustness across diverse populations. This study represents a significant step forward in promoting fairness and trustworthiness in artificial intelligence by quantifying representation bias in multi-channel time-series activity recognition data within the healthcare domain.

Predictability of ecological and evolutionary dynamics in a changing world.

Ecological and evolutionary predictions are being increasingly employed to inform decision-makers confronted with intensifying pressures on biodiversity. For these efforts to effectively guide conservation actions, knowing the limit of predictability is pivotal. In this study, we provide realistic expectations for the enterprise of predicting changes in ecological and evolutionary observations through time. We begin with an intuitive explanation of predictability (the extent to which predictions are possible) employing an easy-to-use metric, predictive power PP(t). To illustrate the challenge of forecasting, we then show that among insects, birds, fishes and mammals, (i) 50% of the populations are predictable at most 1 year in advance and (ii) the median 1-year-ahead predictive power corresponds to a prediction R 2 of only 20%. Predictability is not an immutable property of ecological systems. For example, different harvesting strategies can impact the predictability of exploited populations to varying degrees. Moreover, incorporating explanatory variables, accounting for time trends and considering multivariate time series can enhance predictability. To effectively address the challenge of biodiversity loss, researchers and practitioners must be aware of the information within the available data that can be used for prediction and explore efficient ways to leverage this knowledge for environmental stewardship.

Development of a Novel Classification Approach for Cow Behavior Analysis Using Tracking Data and Unsupervised Machine Learning Techniques.

Global Positioning Systems (GPSs) can collect tracking data to remotely monitor livestock well-being and pasture use. Supervised machine learning requires behavioral observations of monitored animals to identify changes in behavior, which is labor-intensive. Our goal was to identify animal behaviors automatically without using human observations. We designed a novel framework using unsupervised learning techniques. The framework contains two steps. The first step segments cattle tracking data using state-of-the-art time series segmentation algorithms, and the second step groups segments into clusters and then labels the clusters. To evaluate the applicability of our proposed framework, we utilized GPS tracking data collected from five cows in a 1096 ha rangeland pasture. Cow movement pathways were grouped into six behavior clusters based on velocity (m/min) and distance from water. Again, using velocity, these six clusters were classified into walking, grazing, and resting behaviors. The mean velocity for predicted walking and grazing and resting behavior was 44, 13 and 2 min/min, respectively, which is similar to other research. Predicted diurnal behavior patterns showed two primary grazing bouts during early morning and evening, like in other studies. Our study demonstrates that the proposed two-step framework can use unlabeled GPS tracking data to predict cattle behavior without human observations.

Comment on Martínez-Delgado et al. Using Absorption Models for Insulin and Carbohydrates and Deep Leaning to Improve Glucose Level Predictions. Sensors 2021, 21, 5273.

The paper "Using Absorption Models for Insulin and Carbohydrates and Deep Leaning to Improve Glucose Level Predictions" (Sensors2021, 21, 5273) proposes a novel approach to predicting blood glucose levels for people with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM). By building exponential models from raw carbohydrate and insulin data to simulate the absorption in the body, the authors reported a reduction in their model's root-mean-square error (RMSE) from 15.5 mg/dL (raw) to 9.2 mg/dL (exponential) when predicting blood glucose levels one hour into the future. In this comment, we demonstrate that the experimental techniques used in that paper are flawed, which invalidates its results and conclusions. Specifically, after reviewing the authors' code, we found that the model validation scheme was malformed, namely, the training and test data from the same time intervals were mixed. This means that the reported RMSE numbers in the referenced paper did not accurately measure the predictive capabilities of the approaches that were presented. We repaired the measurement technique by appropriately isolating the training and test data, and we discovered that their models actually performed dramatically worse than was reported in the paper. In fact, the models presented in the that paper do not appear to perform any better than a naive model that predicts future glucose levels to be the same as the current ones.

Suggestions and Comparisons of Two Algorithms for the Simplification of Bluetooth Sensor Data in Traffic Cordons.

Bluetooth sensors in intelligent transportation systems possess extensive coverage and access to a large number of identity (ID) data, but they cannot distinguish between vehicles and persons. This study aims to classify and differentiate raw data collected from Bluetooth sensors positioned between various origin-destination (i-j) points into vehicles and persons and to determine their distribution ratios. To reduce data noise, two different filtering algorithms are proposed. The first algorithm employs time series simplification based on Simple Moving Average (SMA) and threshold models, which are tools of statistical analysis. The second algorithm is rule-based, using speed data of Bluetooth devices derived from sensor data to provide a simplification algorithm. The study area was the Historic Peninsula Traffic Cord Region of Istanbul, utilizing data from 39 sensors in the region. As a result of time-based filtering, the ratio of person ID addresses for Bluetooth devices participating in circulation in the region was found to be 65.57% (397,799 person IDs), while the ratio of vehicle ID addresses was 34.43% (208,941 vehicle IDs). In contrast, the rule-based algorithm based on speed data found that the ratio of vehicle ID addresses was 35.82% (389,392 vehicle IDs), while the ratio of person ID addresses was 64.17% (217,348 person IDs). The Jaccard similarity coefficient was utilized to identify similarities in the data obtained from the applied filtering approaches, yielding a coefficient (J) of 0.628. The identity addresses of the vehicles common throughout the two date sets which are obtained represent the sampling size for traffic measurements.

Prediction of Freezing of Gait in Parkinson's disease based on multi-channel time-series neural network.

Freezing of Gait (FOG) is a noticeable symptom of Parkinson's disease, like being stuck in place and increasing the risk of falls. The wearable multi-channel sensor system is an efficient method to predict and monitor the FOG, thus warning the wearer to avoid falls and improving the quality of life. However, the existing approaches for the prediction of FOG mainly focus on a single sensor system and cannot handle the interference between multi-channel wearable sensors. Hence, we propose a novel multi-channel time-series neural network (MCT-Net) approach to merge multi-channel gait features into a comprehensive prediction framework, alerting patients to FOG symptoms in advance. Owing to the causal distributed convolution, MCT-Net is a real-time method available to give optimal prediction earlier and implemented in remote devices. Moreover, intra-channel and inter-channel transformers of MCT-Net extract and integrate different sensor position features into a unified deep learning model. Compared with four other state-of-the-art FOG prediction baselines, the proposed MCT-Net obtains 96.21% in accuracy and 80.46% in F1-score on average 2 s before FOG occurrence, demonstrating the superiority of MCT-Net.

Intra-annual vegetation changes and spatial variation in China over the past two decades based on remote sensing and time-series clustering.

Vegetation is an important link between land, atmosphere, and water, making its changes of great significance. However, existing research has predominantly focused on long-term vegetation changes, neglecting the intra-annual variations of vegetation. Hence, this study is based on the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) data from 2000 to 2022, with a time step of 16 days, to analyze the intra-annual patterns of vegetation changes in China. The average intra-annual EVI values for each municipal-level administrative region were calculated, and the time-series k-means clustering algorithm was employed to divide these regions, exploring the spatial variations in China's intra-annual vegetation changes. Finally, the ridge regression and random forest methods were utilized to assess the drivers of intra-annual vegetation changes. The results showed that: (1) China's vegetation status exhibits a notable intra-annual variation pattern of "high in summer and low in winter," and the changes are more pronounced in the northern regions than in the southern regions; (2) the intra-annual vegetation changes exhibit remarkable regional disparities, and China can be optimally clustered into four distinct clusters, which align well with China's temperature and precipitation zones; and (3) the intra-annual vegetation changes demonstrate significant correlations with meteorological factors such as dew point temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, and sea-level pressure. In conclusion, our study reveals the characteristics, spatial patterns and driving forces of intra-annual vegetation changes in China, which contribute to explaining ecosystem response mechanisms, providing valuable insights for ecological research and the formulation of ecological conservation and management strategies.

Complex system anomaly detection via learnable temporal-spatial graph with degradation tendency segmentation.

To guarantee the safety and reliability of equipment operation, such as liquid rocket engine (LRE), carrying out system-level anomaly detection (AD) is crucial. However, current methods ignore the prior knowledge of mechanical system itself, and seldom unite the observations with the inherent relation in data tightly. Meanwhile, they neglect the weakness and nonindependence of system-level anomaly which is different from component fault. To overcome above limitations, we propose a separate reconstruction framework using worsened tendency for system-level AD. To prevent anomalous feature being attenuated, we first propose to divide single sample into two equal-length parts along the temporal dimension. And we maximize the mean maximum discrepancy (MMD) between feature segments to force encoders to learn normal features with different distributions. Then, to fully explore the multivariate time series, we model temporal-spatial dependence by temporal convolution and graph attention. Besides, a joint graph learning strategy is proposed to handle prior knowledge and data characteristics simultaneously. Finally, the proposed method is evaluated on two real multi-sensor datasets from LRE and the results demonstrate the effectiveness and potential of the proposed method on system-level AD.

Multi level perspectives in stock price forecasting: ICE2DE-MDL.

This study proposes a novel hybrid model, called ICE2DE-MDL, integrating secondary decomposition, entropy, machine and deep learning methods to predict a stock closing price. In this context, first of all, the noise contained in the financial time series was eliminated. A denoising method, which utilizes entropy and the two-level ICEEMDAN methodology, is suggested to achieve this. Subsequently, we applied many deep learning and machine learning methods, including long-short term memory (LSTM), LSTM-BN, gated recurrent unit (GRU), and SVR, to the IMFs obtained from the decomposition, classifying them as noiseless. Afterward, the best training method was determined for each IMF. Finally, the proposed model's forecast was obtained by hierarchically combining the prediction results of each IMF. The ICE2DE-MDL model was applied to eight stock market indices and three stock data sets, and the next day's closing price of these stock items was predicted. The results indicate that RMSE values ranged from 0.031 to 0.244, MAE values ranged from 0.026 to 0.144, MAPE values ranged from 0.128 to 0.594, and R-squared values ranged from 0.905 to 0.998 for stock indices and stock forecasts. Furthermore, comparisons were made with various hybrid models proposed within the scope of stock forecasting to evaluate the performance of the ICE2DE-MDL model. Upon comparison, The ICE2DE-MDL model demonstrated superior performance relative to existing models in the literature for both forecasting stock market indices and individual stocks. Additionally, to our knowledge, this study is the first to effectively eliminate noise in stock item data using the concepts of entropy and ICEEMDAN. It is also the second study to apply ICEEMDAN to a financial time series prediction problem.

COVID-19 pandemic effects on neonatal inpatient admissions and mortality: interrupted time series analysis of facilities implementing NEST360 in Kenya, Malawi, Nigeria, and Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: The emergence of COVID-19 precipitated containment policies (e.g., lockdowns, school closures, etc.). These policies disrupted healthcare, potentially eroding gains for Sustainable Development Goals including for neonatal mortality. Our analysis aimed to evaluate indirect effects of COVID-19 containment policies on neonatal admissions and mortality in 67 neonatal units across Kenya, Malawi, Nigeria, and Tanzania between January 2019 and December 2021. METHODS: The Oxford Stringency Index was applied to quantify COVID-19 policy stringency over time for Kenya, Malawi, Nigeria, and Tanzania. Stringency increased markedly between March and April 2020 for these four countries (although less so in Tanzania), therefore defining the point of interruption. We used March as the primary interruption month, with April for sensitivity analysis. Additional sensitivity analysis excluded data for March and April 2020, modelled the index as a continuous exposure, and examined models for each country. To evaluate changes in neonatal admissions and mortality based on this interruption period, a mixed effects segmented regression was applied. The unit of analysis was the neonatal unit (n = 67), with a total of 266,741 neonatal admissions (January 2019 to December 2021). RESULTS: Admission to neonatal units decreased by 15% overall from February to March 2020, with half of the 67 neonatal units showing a decline in admissions. Of the 34 neonatal units with a decline in admissions, 19 (28%) had a significant decrease of ≥ 20%. The month-to-month decrease in admissions was approximately 2% on average from March 2020 to December 2021. Despite the decline in admissions, we found no significant changes in overall inpatient neonatal mortality. The three sensitivity analyses provided consistent findings. CONCLUSION: COVID-19 containment measures had an impact on neonatal admissions, but no significant change in overall inpatient neonatal mortality was detected. Additional qualitative research in these facilities has explored possible reasons. Strengthening healthcare systems to endure unexpected events, such as pandemics, is critical in continuing progress towards achieving Sustainable Development Goals, including reducing neonatal deaths to less than 12 per 1000 live births by 2030.

Estimated Incidence of Hospitalizations Attributable to RSV Infection Among Adults in Ontario, Canada, Between 2013 and 2019.

INTRODUCTION: Adult respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) burden is underestimated due to non-specific symptoms, limited standard-of-care and delayed testing, reduced diagnostic test sensitivity-particularly when using single diagnostic specimen-when compared to children, and variable test sensitivity based on the upper airway specimen source. We estimated RSV-attributable hospitalization incidence among adults aged ≥ 18 years in Ontario, Canada, using a retrospective time-series model-based approach. METHODS: The Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences data repository provided weekly numbers of hospitalizations (from 2013 to 2019) for respiratory, cardiovascular, and cardiorespiratory disorders. The number of hospitalizations attributable to RSV was estimated using a quasi-Poisson regression model that considered probable overdispersion and was based on periodic and aperiodic time trends and viral activity. As proxies for viral activity, weekly counts of RSV and influenza hospitalizations in children under 2 years and adults aged 60 years and over, respectively, were employed. Models were stratified by age and risk group. RESULTS: In patients ≥ 60 years, RSV-attributable incidence rates were high for cardiorespiratory hospitalizations (range [mean] in 2013-2019: 186-246 [215] per 100,000 person-years, 3‒4% of all cardiorespiratory hospitalizations), and subgroups including respiratory hospitalizations (144-192 [167] per 100,000 person-years, 5‒7% of all respiratory hospitalizations) and cardiovascular hospitalizations (95-126 [110] per 100,000 person-years, 2‒3% of all cardiovascular hospitalizations). RSV-attributable cardiorespiratory hospitalization incidence increased with age, from 14-18 [17] hospitalizations per 100,000 person-years (18-49 years) to 317-411 [362] per 100,000 person-years (≥ 75 years). CONCLUSIONS: Estimated RSV-attributable respiratory hospitalization incidence among people ≥ 60 years in Ontario, Canada, is comparable to other incidence estimates from high-income countries, including model-based and pooled prospective estimates. Recently introduced RSV vaccines could have a substantial public health impact.

Improving pressure injury risk assessment using real-world data from skilled nursing facilities: A cohort study.

This study aimed to improve the predictive accuracy of the Braden assessment for pressure injury risk in skilled nursing facilities (SNFs) by incorporating real-world data and training a survival model. A comprehensive analysis of 126 384 SNF stays and 62 253 in-house pressure injuries was conducted using a large calibrated wound database. This study employed a time-varying Cox Proportional Hazards model, focusing on variations in Braden scores, demographic data and the history of pressure injuries. Feature selection was executed through a forward-backward process to identify significant predictive factors. The study found that sensory and moisture Braden subscores were minimally contributive and were consequently discarded. The most significant predictors of increased pressure injury risk were identified as a recent (within 21 days) decrease in Braden score, low subscores in nutrition, friction and activity, and a history of pressure injuries. The model demonstrated a 10.4% increase in predictive accuracy compared with traditional Braden scores, indicating a significant improvement. The study suggests that disaggregating Braden scores and incorporating detailed wound histories and demographic data can substantially enhance the accuracy of pressure injury risk assessments in SNFs. This approach aligns with the evolving trend towards more personalized and detailed patient care. These findings propose a new direction in pressure injury risk assessment, potentially leading to more effective and individualized care strategies in SNFs. The study highlights the value of large-scale data in wound care, suggesting its potential to enhance quantitative approaches for pressure injury risk assessment and supporting more accurate, data-driven clinical decision-making.

Joint Effect of Short-Term Exposure to Fine Particulate Matter and Ozone on Mortality: A Time Series Study in 272 Chinese Cities.

Short-term exposure to PM2.5 or O3 can increase mortality risk; however, limited studies have evaluated their interaction. A multicity time series study was conducted to investigate the synergistic effect of PM2.5 and O3 on mortality in China, using mortality data and high-resolution pollutant predictions from 272 cities in 2013-2015. Generalized additive models were applied to estimate associations of PM2.5 and O3 with mortality. Modification and interaction effects were explored by stratified analyses and synergistic indexes. Deaths attributable to PM2.5 and O3 were evaluated with or without modification of the other pollutant. The risk of total nonaccidental mortality increased by 0.70% for each 10 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 when O3 levels were high, compared to 0.12% at low O3 levels. The effect of O3 on total nonaccidental mortality at high PM2.5 levels (1.26%) was also significantly higher than that at low PM2.5 levels (0.59%). Similar patterns were observed for cardiovascular or respiratory diseases. The relative excess risk of interaction and synergy index of PM2.5 and O3 on nonaccidental mortality were 0.69% and 1.31 with statistical significance, respectively. Nonaccidental deaths attributable to short-term exposure of PM2.5 or O3 when considering modification of the other pollutant were 28% and 31% higher than those without considering modification, respectively. Our results found synergistic effects of short-term coexposure to PM2.5 and O3 on mortality and suggested underestimations of attributable risks without considering their synergistic effects.

Time series insights from the shopfloor: A real-world dataset of pneumatic pressure and electrical current in discrete manufacturing.

Gathered from a real-world discrete manufacturing floor, this dataset features measurements of pneumatic pressure and electrical current during production. Spanning 7 days and encompassing approximately 150 processed units, the data is organized into time series sampled at 100 Hz. The observed machine performs 24 steps to process each unit. Each measurement in the time series, is annotated, linking it to one of the 24 processing steps performed by the machine for processing of a single piece. Segmenting the time series into contiguous regions of constant processing step labels results in 3674 labeled segments, each encompassing one part of the production process. The dataset enriched with labels facilitates the use of supervised learning techniques, like time series classification, and supports the testing of unsupervised methods, such as clustering of time series data. The focus of this dataset is on an end-of-line testing machine for small consumer-grade electric drive assemblies (device under test - DUT). The machine performs multiple actions in the process of evaluating each DUT, with the dataset capturing the pneumatic pressures and electrical currents involved. These measurements are segmented in alignment with the testing machine's internal state transitions, each corresponding to a distinct action undertaken in manipulating the device under observation. The included segments offer distinct signatures of pressure and current for each action, making the dataset valuable for developing algorithms for the non-invasive monitoring of industrial (specifically discrete) processes.

Innovative use of Australian cancer registry data for early detection of the effects of epidemics and other mass disruptions on cancer incidence.

BACKGROUND: Predictive modelling using pre-epidemic data have long been used to guide public health responses to communicable disease outbreaks and other health disruptions. In this study, cancer registry and related health data available 2-3 months from diagnosis were used to predict changes in cancer detection that otherwise would not have been identified until full registry processing was completed about 18-24 months later. A key question was whether these earlier data could be used to predict cancer incidence ahead of full processing by the cancer registry as a guide to more timely health responses. The setting was the Australian State of New South Wales, covering 31 % of the Australian population. The study year was 2020, the year of emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: Cancer detection in 2020 was modelled using data available 2-3 months after diagnosis. This was compared with data from full registry processing available from 2022. Data from pre-pandemic 2018 were used for exploratory model building. Models were tested using pre-pandemic 2019 data. Candidate predictor variables included pathology, surgery and radiation therapy reports, numbers of breast screens, colonoscopies, PSA tests, and melanoma excisions recorded by the universal Medical Benefits Schedule (MBS). Data were analysed for all cancers collectively and 5 leading types. RESULTS: Compared with full registry processing, modelled data for 2020 had a >95 % accuracy overall, indicating key points of inflexion of cancer detection over the COVID-disrupted 2020 period. These findings highlight the potential of predictive modelling of cancer-related data soon after diagnosis to reveal changes in cancer detection during epidemics and other health disruptions. CONCLUSIONS: Data available 2-3 months from diagnosis in the pandemic year indicated changes in cancer detection that were ultimately confirmed by fully-processed cancer registry data about 24 months later. This indicates the potential utility of using these early data in an early-warning system.

Projection of the prevalence of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer incidence using cigarette smoking prevalence in Iran from 1990 to 2018: a comparison of latent period-based models with standard forecasting models.

BACKGROUND: Smoking is the major risk factor for tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancers. We investigated the feasibility of projecting TBL cancer incidence using smoking incidence rates by incorporating a range of latent periods from the main risk factor exposure to TBL cancer diagnosis. METHODS: In this ecological study, we extracted data on TBL cancer incidence rates in Iran from 1990 to 2018 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. We also collected data on Iranian cigarette smoking patterns over the past 40 years through a literature review. The weighted average smoking incidence was calculated using a fixed-effects model with Comprehensive Meta-Analysis (CMA) software. Using these data, the five-year TBL cancer incidence in Iran was projected through time series modeling with IT Service Management (ITSM) 2000 software. A second model was developed based on cigarette smoking incidence using linear regression with SPSS (version 22), incorporating different latent periods. The results of these two models were compared to determine the best latent periods. RESULTS: An increasing trend in TBL cancer incidence was observed from 2019 to 2023 (first model: 10.30 [95% CI: 9.62, 10.99] to 11.42 [95% CI: 10.85, 11.99] per 100,000 people). In the second model, the most accurate prediction was obtained with latent periods of 17 to 20 years, with the best prediction using a 17-year latent period (10.13 to 11.40 per 100,000 people) and the smallest mean difference of 0.08 (0.84%) per 100,000 people using the standard forecasting model (the ARIMA model). CONCLUSION: Projecting an increase in TBL cancer incidence rates in the future, an optimal latent period of 17 to 20 years between exposure to cigarette smoke and TBL cancer incidence has implications for macrolevel preventive health policymaking to help reduce the burden of TBL cancer in upcoming years.

Association of ambient temperature on acute ischemic stroke in Yancheng, China.

BACKGROUND: Acute ischemic stroke (AIS) is a major global public health issue. There is limited research on the relationship between ambient temperature and AIS hospital admissions, and the results are controversial. Our objective is to assess the short-term impact of ambient temperature on the risk of AIS hospital admissions in Yancheng, China. METHODS: We collected data on daily AIS hospital admissions, meteorological factors, and air quality in Yancheng from 2014 to 2019. We used Poisson regression to fit generalized linear models and distributed lag non-linear models to explore the association between ambient temperature and AIS hospital admissions. The effects of these associations were evaluated by stratified analysis by sex and age. RESULTS: From 2014 to 2019, we identified a total of 13,391 AIS hospital admissions. We observed that the influence of extreme cold and heat on admissions for AIS manifests immediately on the day of exposure and continues for a duration of 3-5 days. Compared to the optimal temperature (24.4 °C), the cumulative relative risk under extreme cold temperature (-1.3 °C) conditions with a lag of 0-5 days was 1.88 (95%CI: 1.28, 2.78), and under extreme heat temperature (30.5 °C) conditions with a lag of 0-5 days was 1.48 (95%CI: 1.26, 1.73). CONCLUSIONS: There is a non-linear association between ambient temperature and AIS hospital admission risk in Yancheng, China. Women and older patients are more vulnerable to non-optimal temperatures. Our findings may reveal the potential impact of climate change on the risk of AIS hospital admissions.