ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Well studied in patients with ischemic stroke after reperfusion therapies (RT), hemorrhagic transformation (HT) is also common in patients not treated with RT and can lead to disability even in initially asymptomatic cases. The best predictors of HT in patients not treated with RT are not well established. Therefore, we aimed to identify predictors of HT in patients not submitted to RT and create a user-friendly predictive score (PROpHET). MATERIAL AND METHODS: Patients admitted to a Comprehensive Stroke Center from 2015 to 2017 were prospectively evaluated and randomly selected to the derivation cohort. A multivariable logistic regression modeling was built to produce a predictive grading score for HT. The external validation was assessed using datasets from 7 Comprehensive Stroke Centers using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). RESULTS: In the derivation group, 448 patients were included in the final analysis. The validation group included 2,683 patients. The score derived from significant predictors of HT in the multivariate logistic regression analysis was male sex (1 point), ASPECTS ≤ 7 (2 points), presence of leukoaraiosis (1 point), hyperdense cerebral middle artery sign (1 point), glycemia at admission ≥180 mg/dL (1 point), cardioembolism (1 point) and lacunar syndrome (-3 points) as a protective factor. The grading score ranges from -3 to 7. A Score ≥3 had 78.2% sensitivity and 75% specificity, and AUROC of 0.82 for all cases of HT. In the validation cohort, our score had an AUROC of 0.83. CONCLUSIONS: The PROpHET is a simple, quick, cost-free, and easy-to-perform tool that allows risk stratification of HT in patients not submitted to RT. A cost-free computerized version of our score is available online with a user-friendly interface.
Subject(s)
Brain Ischemia/diagnosis , Decision Support Techniques , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Brain Ischemia/epidemiology , Brazil/epidemiology , Female , Humans , Incidence , Intracranial Hemorrhages/diagnosis , Intracranial Hemorrhages/epidemiology , Male , Middle Aged , Predictive Value of Tests , Prognosis , Prospective Studies , Reproducibility of Results , Retrospective Studies , Risk Assessment , Risk Factors , Stroke/diagnosis , Stroke/epidemiologyABSTRACT
ABSTRACT Background: Hemorrhagic transformation (HT) is a common complication after ischemic stroke. It may be associated to poor outcomes. Some predictors of HT have been previously identified, but there remain controversies. Objective: To describe the risk factors for HT more frequently reported by a panel of experts surveyed for this project. Methods: We sent a standard questionnaire by e-mail to specialists in Vascular Neurology from 2014 to 2018. Forty-five specialists were contacted and 20 of them responded to the invitation. Predictors cited by three or more specialists were included in a table and ranked by the frequency in which they appeared. A review of the literature looking for published predictive scores of HT was performed, comparing to the answers received. Results: The 20 responding specialists cited 23 different risk factors for HT. The most frequent factors in the order of citation were the volume of ischemia, previous use of antithrombotic medication, neurological severity, age, hyperglycemia at presentation, hypertension on admission, and cardioembolism. Most variables were also found in previously published predictive scores, but they were reported by the authors with divergences of frequency. Conclusion: Although many studies have evaluated HT in patients with acute ischemic stroke, the published risk factors were neither uniform nor in agreement with those cited by the stroke specialists. These findings may be helpful to build a score that can be tested with the goal of improving the prediction of HT.
RESUMO Introdução: A transformação hemorrágica (TH) é uma complicação comum após a isquemia cerebral e pode estar associada a desfechos desfavoráveis. Alguns fatores de risco para TH têm sido identificados, mas ainda há controvérsias. Objetivo: Descrever os fatores de risco para TH mais frequentemente reportados por um painel de especialistas consultados para esse projeto. Métodos: Enviamos um questionário padronizado por e-mail para 45 especialistas em Neurologia Vascular no período de 2014 a 2018. Vinte dos 45 especialistas responderam ao convite. Preditores citados por três ou mais especialistas foram incluídos em uma tabela e classificados pela frequência em que foram reportados. Uma revisão de literatura foi realizada em busca de escores preditivos de TH publicados anteriormente, comparando-os com as respostas recebidas. Resultados: Os 20 especialistas citaram 23 diferentes fatores de risco para TH. Os fatores mais frequentemente citados foram, pela ordem, volume da isquemia, uso prévio de medicação antitrombótica, gravidade neurológica, idade, hiperglicemia na apresentação, hipertensão na admissão e cardioembolismo. A maioria das variáveis também foi incluída em escores preditivos de TH já publicados, mas sem a mesma frequência e com divergências entre os especialistas consultados. Conclusão: Embora muitos estudos tenham avaliado a TH em pacientes com isquemia cerebral, os fatores de risco já publicados não foram uniformes na concordância com aqueles reportados pelos neurologistas vasculares consultados. Esses achados podem ser úteis para elaborar um escore que possa ser testado para aperfeiçoar a predição de transformação hemorrágica.
Subject(s)
Humans , Cerebral Hemorrhage/diagnosis , Brain Ischemia/diagnosis , Stroke/complications , Cerebral Hemorrhage/pathology , Risk Factors , Stroke/etiologyABSTRACT
Hemorrhagic transformation is a complex phenomenon where brain tissue bleeds, which could be associated or not to an increase in the neurological deficit after the acute ischemic stroke. The aim of our study was to evaluate clinical predictors of hemorrhagic transformation in patients with non-lacunar ischemic stroke. We performed a prospective analysis of the clinical records and images of patients with non-lacunar ischemic stroke. Demographics, vascular risk factors, previous medications and the information of the event in patients with and without hemorrhagic transformation were here compared. We included in this study 747 patients with non-lacunar stroke, the mean age was 77 ± 11 years and 61% were females. In the univariate analysis, the age, a history of hypertension, atrial fibrillation, chronic kidney disease and the previous use of oral anticoagulation resulted statistically significant. In the multivariate analysis of logistic regression adjusted by age and vascular risk factors: the age > 80 years (OR 3.6, CI 95% 1.8-7.6), the pulse pressure > 60 mmHg at admission (OR 5.3, CI 95% 3.2-9.1), the chronic kidney disease (OR 3, CI 95% 2.5-3.8) and the presence of previous atrial fibrillation (OR 3.5, CI 95% 2.1-6.1) were associated with and increased risk of hemorrhagic transformation. The predictors of hemorrhagic transformation in our cohort showed a relationship with severe vascular illness. The identification of these patients could influence therapeutic decisions that could increase the risk of hemorrhagic transformation.
Subject(s)
Brain Ischemia/complications , Cerebral Hemorrhage/etiology , Stroke/complications , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Female , Humans , Male , Prospective Studies , Risk FactorsABSTRACT
La transformación hemorrágica es un fenómeno complejo en el que el tejido cerebral isquémico sangra; este proceso puede asociarse o no a un deterioro del estado neurológico inicial. El objetivo de nuestro estudio fue evaluar los predictores clínicos de trasformación hemorrágica en los pacientes con accidente cerebrovascular isquémico no lacunar. Se analizaron las historias clínicas y las imágenes de pacientes con infarto cerebral no lacunar incluidos prospectivamente en un programa de prevención secundaria. Se compararon datos demográficos, factores de riesgo vascular, medicación previa y datos del evento de los pacientes con transformación hemorrágica y sin ella. Se incluyeron 747 pacientes, la edad promedio fue de 77 ± 11 años, 61% mujeres. En el análisis univariado, la edad, el antecedente de hipertensión arterial, la fibrilación auricular, la insuficiencia renal crónica y la anticoagulación oral previa se relacionaron significativamente con la presencia de transformación hemorrágica. En el análisis multivariado de regresión logística ajustado por edad y factores de riesgo vascular, resultaron predictores de transformación hemorrágica: la edad > 80 años (OR 3.6; IC 95% 1.8-7.6), la presión de pulso > 60 mmHg al ingreso (OR 5.3; IC 95% 3.2-9.1), la insuficiencia renal crónica (OR 3; IC 95% 2.5-3.8) y el antecedente de fibrilación auricular (OR 3.5; IC 95% 2.1-6.1). En nuestra cohorte los predictores clínicos de conversión hemorrágica del infarto cerebral muestran una relación con la gravedad de la enfermedad vascular. La identificación de estos pacientes influenciaría en la toma de decisiones terapéuticas que pudieran incrementar el riesgo de transformación hemorrágica.
Hemorrhagic transformation is a complex phenomenon where brain tissue bleeds, which could be associated or not to an increase in the neurological deficit after the acute ischemic stroke. The aim of our study was to evaluate clinical predictors of hemorrhagic transformation in patients with non-lacunar ischemic stroke. We performed a prospective analysis of the clinical records and images of patients with non-lacunar ischemic stroke. Demographics, vascular risk factors, previous medications and the information of the event in patients with and without hemorrhagic transformation were here compared. We included in this study 747 patients with non-lacunar stroke, the mean age was 77 ± 11 years and 61% were females. In the univariate analysis, the age, a history of hypertension, atrial fibrillation, chronic kidney disease and the previous use of oral anticoagulation resulted statistically significant. In the multivariate analysis of logistic regression adjusted by age and vascular risk factors: the age > 80 years (OR 3.6, CI 95% 1.8-7.6), the pulse pressure > 60 mmHg at admission (OR 5.3, CI 95% 3.2-9.1), the chronic kidney disease (OR 3, CI 95% 2.5-3.8) and the presence of previous atrial fibrillation (OR 3.5, CI 95% 2.1-6.1) were associated with and increased risk of hemorrhagic transformation. The predictors of hemorrhagic transformation in our cohort showed a relationship with severe vascular illness. The identification of these patients could influence therapeutic decisions that could increase the risk of hemorrhagic transformation.