Bias of the additive hazard model in the presence of causal effect heterogeneity.

Hazard ratios are prone to selection bias, compromising their use as causal estimands. On the other hand, if Aalen's additive hazard model applies, the hazard difference has been shown to remain unaffected by the selection of frailty factors over time. Then, in the absence of confounding, observed hazard differences are equal in expectation to the causal hazard differences. However, in the presence of effect (on the hazard) heterogeneity, the observed hazard difference is also affected by selection of survivors. In this work, we formalize how the observed hazard difference (from a randomized controlled trial) evolves by selecting favourable levels of effect modifiers in the exposed group and thus deviates from the causal effect of interest. Such selection may result in a non-linear integrated hazard difference curve even when the individual causal effects are time-invariant. Therefore, a homogeneous time-varying causal additive effect on the hazard cannot be distinguished from a time-invariant but heterogeneous causal effect. We illustrate this causal issue by studying the effect of chemotherapy on the survival time of patients suffering from carcinoma of the oropharynx using data from a clinical trial. The hazard difference can thus not be used as an appropriate measure of the causal effect without making untestable assumptions.

The built-in selection bias of hazard ratios formalized using structural causal models.

It is known that the hazard ratio lacks a useful causal interpretation. Even for data from a randomized controlled trial, the hazard ratio suffers from so-called built-in selection bias as, over time, the individuals at risk among the exposed and unexposed are no longer exchangeable. In this paper, we formalize how the expectation of the observed hazard ratio evolves and deviates from the causal effect of interest in the presence of heterogeneity of the hazard rate of unexposed individuals (frailty) and heterogeneity in effect (individual modification). For the case of effect heterogeneity, we define the causal hazard ratio. We show that the expected observed hazard ratio equals the ratio of expectations of the latent variables (frailty and modifier) conditionally on survival in the world with and without exposure, respectively. Examples with gamma, inverse Gaussian and compound Poisson distributed frailty and categorical (harming, beneficial or neutral) distributed effect modifiers are presented for illustration. This set of examples shows that an observed hazard ratio with a particular value can arise for all values of the causal hazard ratio. Therefore, the hazard ratio cannot be used as a measure of the causal effect without making untestable assumptions, stressing the importance of using more appropriate estimands, such as contrasts of the survival probabilities.

Age trajectories in extra-pair siring success suggest an effect of maturation or early-life experience.

Across birds, male age is the most consistent predictor of extra-pair siring success, yet little is known about age effects on paternity over the lifetime of individuals. Here, we use data from a 13-year study of a population of blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) to investigate how extra-pair siring success changes with age within individuals. Our results indicate that extra-pair siring success does not continuously increase with male age. Instead, siring success was related to male age in a threshold fashion, whereby yearling males were less likely to gain paternity than older males. This effect was independent of the age of the social partner, but influenced by the age of the extra-pair female: success of yearlings at siring extra-pair young (EPY) with older females was even lower. Among males that sired at least one EPY, the number of extra-pair mates and the proportion of EPY sired were unrelated to male age. We found no evidence for an influence of selective disappearance on extra-pair reproduction. Senescence, if anything, only occurs at ages blue tits rarely reach. A literature review indicates that an effect of male age on extra-pair siring success may be limited to the switch from yearling to older in many species. Thus, the generally observed age effect on male extra-pair siring success may be linked to age class rather than continuous ageing. This suggests that lack of experience or not fully completed maturation are important drivers of age patterns in extra-pair paternity.

Influence of glyphosate and its metabolite aminomethylphosphonic acid on aquatic plants in different ecological niches.

Glyphosate and its metabolite aminomethylphosphonic acid (AMPA) draw great concern due to their potential threat to aquatic ecosystems. The individual and combined effects of glyphosate and AMPA on aquatic plants in different ecological niches need to be explored. This study aimed to investigate the ecotoxicity of glyphosate and AMPA on the emergent macrophyte Acorus calamus, phytoplankton Chlorella vulgaris, and submerged macrophyte Vallisneria natans after their exposure to glyphosate and AMPA alone and to their mixture. Medium and low concentrations of glyphosate (≤ 0.5 mg L-1) significantly inhibited the growth of V. natans and promoted the growth of C. vulgaris (P < 0.05) but had no significant effect on the growth of A. calamus (P > 0.05). AMPA (≤ 5.0 mg L-1) did not significantly influence the relative growth rate (except C. vulgaris) or malonaldehyde levels but significantly altered the expression levels of chlorophyll-related genes and superoxide dismutase [Cu-Zn] genes in the aquatic plants examined. AMPA mainly affected the oxidative phosphorylation pathway in V. natans and not those in other two plants, indicating that V. natans was more sensitive to AMPA-induced oxidative damage. Moreover, antagonistic effects on plant growth were observed when plants were exposed to low concentrations of glyphosate + AMPA (≤ 0.1 + 0.1 mg L-1). When the concentration of glyphosate + AMPA reached 0.5 + 0.5 and 5.0 + 5.0 mg L-1, the growth of the submerged macrophyte was additively or synergistically inhibited, but the growth of the emergent macrophyte and phytoplankton was antagonistically inhibited. Our results indicated that both the individual and combined effects of glyphosate and AMPA might alter the vertical structure of shallow lakes and accelerate the conversion of shallow lakes from grass-based to algal-based lakes.

Age-dependent changes in infidelity in Seychelles warblers.

Extra-pair paternity (EPP) is often linked to male age in socially monogamous vertebrates; that is, older males are more likely to gain EPP and less likely to be cuckolded. However, whether this occurs because males improve at gaining paternity as they grow older, or because "higher quality" males that live longer are preferred by females, has rarely been tested, despite being central to our understanding of the evolutionary drivers of female infidelity. Moreover, how extra-pair reproduction changes with age within females has received even less attention. Using 18 years of longitudinal data from an individually marked population of Seychelles warblers (Acrocephalus sechellensis), we found considerable within-individual changes in extra-pair reproduction in both sexes: an early-life increase and a late-life decline. Furthermore, males were cuckolded less as they aged. Our results indicate that in this species age-related patterns of extra-pair reproduction are determined by within-individual changes with age, rather than differences among individuals in longevity. These results challenge the hypothesis-based on longevity reflecting intrinsic quality-that the association between male age and EPP is due to females seeking high-quality paternal genes for offspring. Importantly, EPP accounted for up to half of male reproductive success, emphasizing the male fitness benefits of this reproductive strategy. Finally, the occurrence of post-peak declines in extra-pair reproduction provides explicit evidence of senescence in infidelity in both males and females.

Disentangling Trait-Like Between-Individual vs. State-Like Within-Individual Effects in Studying the Mechanisms of Change in CBT.

Hofmann et al. argued that "[w]hile the clinical field has produced a dizzying number of treatment models and treatment protocols for virtually every psychiatric and psychological problem imaginable, increases in understanding of the processes of change in psychotherapy has been slow to arrive." We propose that one of the reasons for the slow progress is that prior psychotherapy research conflates trait-like and state-like components of mechanisms of change. Trait-like components can serve as prescriptive or prognostic variables, whereas state-like components reflect within-client processes of change, and may highlight active ingredients of successful treatment. Distinguishing between the two is essential for clarifying the underlying processes of change in psychotherapy, and ultimately identifying empirically-derived individualized treatment targets. We review studies that implement methodological and statistical approaches for disentangling the two. These studies clarified particular mechanisms of change that may operate in a given treatment, highlighted differences in the processes of change between different treatments, and explored the within-individual interplay between different mechanisms of change during treatment. Examples include studies investigating the therapeutic role of behavioral, cognitive, and interpersonal skills, as well as emotional processing. We conclude with suggestions for future research, including attention to diversity, improved measurement to facilitate a reliable and valid estimation of trait-like and state-like components, the use of appropriate statistical approaches to adequately disentangle the two components, integration of theory-driven and data-driven methods of analysis, and the need to experimentally manipulate the state-like changes in a given mechanism of change to strengthen causal inferences.

Rectification of Mobile Leidenfrost Droplets by Planar Ratchets.

The self-transportation of mobile Leidenfrost droplets with well-defined direction and velocity on millimetric ratchets is one of the most representative and spectacular phenomena in droplet dynamics. Despite extensive progress in the ability to control the spatiotemporal propagation of droplets, it remains elusive how the individual ratchet units, as well as the interactions within their arrays, are translated into the collective droplet dynamics. Here, simple planar ratchets characterized by uniform height normal to the surface are designed. It is revealed that on planar ratchets, the transport dynamics of Leidenfrost droplets is dependent not only on individual units, but also on the elegant coordination within their arrays dictated by their topography. The design of planar ratchets enriches the fundamental understanding of how the surface topography is translated into dynamic and collective droplet transport behaviors, and also imparts higher applicability in microelectromechanical system based fluidic devices.

Thiamethoxam honey bee colony feeding study: Linking effects at the level of the individual to those at the colony level.

Neonicotinoid insecticides have been used globally on a wide range of crops through seed treatment as well as soil and foliar applications and have been increasingly studied in relation to the potential risk to bees because of their detection in pollen and nectar of bee-attractive crops. The present article reports the results of laboratory studies (10-d adult and 22-d larval toxicity studies assessing the chronic toxicity of thiamethoxam to adult honey bees and larvae, respectively) and a colony feeding study, with 6 wk of exposure in an area with limited alternative forage, to provide a prewintering colony-level endpoint. The endpoints following exposure of individuals in the laboratory (10-d adult chronic no-observed-effect concentration [NOEC] for mortality 117 µg thiamethoxam/kg sucrose solution, 141 µg thiamethoxam/L sucrose solution; 22-d larval chronic NOEC 102 µg thiamethoxam/kg diet) are compared with those generated at the colony level, which incorporates sublethal effects (no-observed-adverse-effect concentration [NOAEC] 50 µg thiamethoxam/L sucrose solution, 43 µg thiamethoxam/kg sucrose solution). The data for sucrose-fed honey bee colonies support the lack of effects identified in previous colony-level field studies with thiamethoxam. However, unlike these field studies demonstrating no effects, colony feeding study data also provide a threshold level of exposure likely to result in adverse effects on the colony in the absence of alternative forage, and a basis by which to evaluate the potential risk of thiamethoxam residues detected in pollen, nectar, or water following treatment of bee-attractive crops. Environ Toxicol Chem 2018;37:816-828. © 2017 SETAC.