The emotion of gratitude as a mediator between subjective happiness, positive and negative affect and satisfaction with life in Spanish adults / La emoción de gratitud como mediadora entre la felicidad subjetiva, el afecto positivo y negativo y la satisfacción con la vida en adultos españoles

El presente estudio investigó si la satisfacción con la vida se predice a partir de la felicidad subjetiva, afectos positivos y negativos, alteración psicológica y emociones de gratitud y si la emoción de gratitud está mediando la relación con la felicidad subjetiva, los afectos y la satisfacción con la vida. Se hicieron correlación de Pearson, pruebas de regresión lineal múltiple y modelos de mediación en una muestra de 1537 adultos españoles, 73.6% mujeres y 26.4% hombres, edad 18-88 años (M = 42.56 años; DT = 16.29). Se halló que las emociones de gratitud median la relación entre felicidad subjetiva y satisfacción con la vida y entre los afectos positivos y la satisfacción con la vida. Los afectos positivos son los que más se relacionan con la satisfacción con la vida, seguidos por la felicidad subjetiva y las emociones de gratitud. Los hombres están más satisfechos con la vida cuando sienten menos afecto negativo. Además, las emociones de gratitud median la relación entre felicidad subjetiva y satisfacción con la vida y entre los afectos positivos y la satisfacción con la vida. La diferencia principal radica en que las emociones de gratitud son más fuertes en las mujeres que en los hombres.(AU)

This study aims to examine the predictability of satisfaction with life on the basis of subjective happiness, positive and negative affect, psy-chological disturbance and emotion of gratitude. It also seeks to assess whether the emotion of gratitude is a mediating variable withsubjective happiness, affect, and satisfaction with life. Statistical analyses of Pearson'scorrelation, multiple linear regression tests, and mediation models were conducted on asample of 1537 Spanish adults, 73.6% were females, 26.4% males, age between 18-88 yearsold (M = 42.56; SD = 16.29). The emo-tions of gratitude were found to mediate therelationship between subjec-tive happiness and satisfaction with life and between positiveaffect and satisfaction with life. Of the variables studied, positive affect is the most related tosatisfaction with life, followed by subjective happiness and emo-tions of gratitude. Maleparticipants are more satisfied with life when they feel the less negative affect. Regardingmediation models, emotions of grat-itude mediate the relationship between subjectivehappiness and satisfac-tion with life and between positive affect and satisfaction with life. Themaindifferenceis thatemotions of gratitudearestronger infemalesthan in males.(AU)

Is predictability of the conditioning stimulus (CS) a critical factor in conditioned pain modulation (CPM)?

INTRODUCTION: Conditioned pain modulation (CPM) allows to investigate endogenous pain modulation and its clinical outcomes. Although co-activation of emotions has been shown to affect CPM, the impact of 'threat,' which may accompany CPM stimulation itself, has been mostly neglected. A critical factor for the threat level of the conditioning stimulus (CS) may be its predictability. METHODS: 38 healthy participants (18 female) took part in a CPM study with pressure stimulation on the leg (blood-pressure cuff) serving as CS and heat stimulation on the forearm (contact thermode; CHEPS) serving as test stimulus (TS). While CS varied in intensity and -as operationalisation of threat- in temporary predictability, TS was kept constant. CPM effects were studied by EEG parameters (N2P2) and pain ratings. RESULTS: We found a significant CPM effect when considering N2P2, with low CS predictability augmenting CPM inhibition; in contrast, a surprisingly facilitatory CPM effect occurred in pain ratings (in the high CS predictability condition). The threat manipulation was only partially successful because CS intensity increased the threat ratings but not -as intended- CS predictability. Correlations between subjective and psychophysiological CPM responses were low. DISCUSSION: The differing CPM effects in subjective and psychophysiological responses, with both inhibitory and facilitatory effects, is puzzling but has already been observed earlier. The consideration of the CPM stimulation as major threat that is emotionally active is theoretically clearly justifiable but the operationalisation by means of different levels of CS predictability as in the present study might not have been ideal. Thus, further attempts of experimental verification are warranted.

Zipfian distributions facilitate children's learning of novel word-referent mappings.

The word-frequency distributions children hear during language learning are highly skewed (Zipfian). Previous studies suggest that such skewed environments confer a learnability advantage in tasks that require the learner to discover the units that have to be learned, as in word-segmentation or cross-situational learning. This facilitative effect has been attributed to contextual facilitation from high frequency items in learning lower frequency items, and to better learning under the increased predictability (lower entropy) of skewed distributions. Here, we ask whether Zipfian distributions facilitate learning beyond the discovery of units, as expected under the predictability account. We tested children's learning of novel word-referent mappings in a learning task where each mapping was presented in isolation during training, and did not need to be dicovered. We compared learning in a uniform environment to two skewed environments with different entropy levels. Children's learning was overall better in the two skewed environments, even for low frequency items. These results extend the facilitative effect of Zipfian distributions to additional learning tasks and show they can facilitate language learning beyond the discovery of units.

The ability of peripheral neurophysiological biomarkers to predict future psychological conditions among geriatric populations.

OBJECTIVE: Though the association between peripheral neurophysiological biomarkers and psychological conditions is widely discussed, there is still limited evidence about the ability of peripheral biomarkers to predict psychological outcomes, especially among geriatric populations. METHODS: The study is designed as a prospective cohort study. We collected information from participants aged over 55 years. The participants were evaluated at the start of the study (T0) and 6-9 months later (T1). Information about demographic profiles, peripheral neurophysiological biomarker recordings (including heart rate variability, finger temperature, skin conductance, and electromyogram), and psychological measurements (including Brief Symptom Rating Scale-5, Chinese Happiness Inventory, and Short Portable Mental Status Questionnaire) were collected at T0. At T1, participants reported self-rated questionnaires for psychological outcomes (Patient Health Questionnaire-15, health anxiety questionnaire, Beck Depression Inventory-II, and Beck Anxiety Inventory) and were evaluated with Mini-Mental State Examination by the staff. The association between the peripheral biomarkers and psychological outcomes was evaluated via multiple regression models. RESULTS: A total of 385 participants were included in the study and the average age was 74.49 ± 7.34 years. Both stepwise multiple linear and logistic models showed a significant association between decreased skin conductance and increased/presence of depression at T1. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis of skin conductance for depression was fair (area under curve = 0.812). CONCLUSIONS: The ability of skin conductance to predict depression among geriatric populations may facilitate the detection of geriatric depression and future research on the pathophysiology.

Chinese EFL learners' processing of English binomials: the role of interlexical and intralexical factors.

Binomials have been relatively understudied compared to other types of multiword expressions (MWEs) in second language research, such as collocations and idioms. This study investigated English as a Foreign Language (EFL) learners' processing of English binomials and how it is influenced by interlexical factors (L1-L2 congruency and L1-lexicalization) and intralexical factors (word and binomial frequency, binomial reversibility, and binomial predictability). Forty Chinese EFL learners participated in a phrase acceptability judgment task of 64 target binomials (16 congruent L1-lexicalized, 16 congruent L1-nonlexicalized, and 32 incongruent) and 64 non-binomial controls. Results revealed that learners experienced difficulty judging the formulaicity of binomials. They processed binomial stimuli significantly faster than non-binomial baselines, demonstrating a binomial phrase effect. They also processed L1-L2 congruent items faster and more accurately than incongruent items, showing a robust congruency effect. The congruent items which are lexicalized in the L1 showed further processing advantage than the non-lexicalized items, indicating a graded congruency effect. Moreover, binomial reversibility and binomial predictability (measured with cloze probability) also showed significant effects. These findings highlight the need to distinguish and investigate different types of congruency, explore appropriate measures for MWE predictability, and to examine binomials focusing on their unique features.

Incorporating seasonality, predictability, and modularity into the optimization of biodiversity conservation for ecological networks.

Improving the connectivity of ecological networks (ENs) is a proven strategy for biological conservation. However, without a clear understanding of animal movement, research on ENs may not provide a sufficient reference for maintaining biodiversity. To address this gap, we embraced central concepts of movement ecology and conducted a study in the Qilian Mountains. The predictability and seasonality of environmental conditions were combined to identify ecological sources with rich temporal niches and improve the informed preference character of resistance surface. Then, we constructed ENs with six dispersal thresholds. Further, integrating modularity and circuit theory, we pinpointed priority areas for restoration within the ENs. Our findings indicated that the eastern part of the Qilian Mountains showed higher biodiversity suitability, with terrain being the primary factor limiting dispersal. Additionally, comparative analyses demonstrate that the new method for measuring biodiversity from the perspective of temporal niche is reliable and better aligns with the needs of biodiversity conservation. In light of emerging challenges within the study area, where apex predators seriously suppress the populations of some smaller predators, we propose a novel conservation idea that emphasizes the strategic retention and removal of barriers to maintain biological balance. This study enriches methodologies for biodiversity measurement, provides forward-looking conservation strategies, and offers practical contributions toward mitigating biodiversity loss.

The role of facial cues in signalling cooperativeness is limited and nuanced.

Humans display a remarkable tendency to cooperate with strangers; however, identifying prospective cooperation partners accurately before entering any new relationship is essential to mitigate the risk of being exploited. Visual appearance, as inferrable, for example, from facial images on job portals and dating sites, may serve as a potential signal of cooperativeness. This experimental study examines whether static images enable the correct detection of an individual's propensity to cooperate. Participants first played the Prisoner's Dilemma (PD) game, a standard cooperation task. Subsequently, they were asked to predict the cooperativeness of participants from a prior PD study relying solely on their static facial photographs. While our main results indicate only marginal accuracy improvements over random guessing, a more detailed analysis reveals that participants were more successful at identifying cooperative tendencies similar to their own. Despite no detectable main effect in our primary treatment variations (time pressure versus time delay), participants exhibited increased accuracy in identifying male cooperators under time pressure. These findings point towards a limited yet nuanced role of static facial images in predicting cooperativeness, advancing our understanding of non-behavioral cues in cooperative interactions.

The modulation of temporal predictability on attentional boost effect.

INTRODUCTION: The attentional boost effect, characterized by better memory for background scenes coinciding with a detection target than a nontarget, is believed to stem from a temporary increase in attentional capacity at the time of an acute behavior-related event occurring. Sisk and Jiang's study found that the attentional boost effect also occurs when the target's appearance was predictable. Unfortunately, the duration of the predictive interval in Sisk and Jiang's study was fixed. Since different predictive intervals had different weakening degrees to the acuteness of the target, this fixed duration hindered further investigation into the impact of different levels of predictability on the attentional boost effect. METHOD: Using the encoding-recognition paradigm and the remembering/knowing paradigm, and setting target stimuli with different predictive interval in target detection tasks, the current study aimed to explore the influence of varying the duration of the predictive interval on the attentional boost effect. RESULTS: The attentional boost effect was observed only in the short and medium predictive duration conditions, but not in the long predictive duration condition. Moreover, as the duration of the predictive interval increased, participants' memory performance on target-paired words gradually declined, while their memory performance on distractor-paired and baseline-paired words gradually improved. CONCLUSIONS: Predictability may alter the task demands, allowing participants to more effectively allocate attentional resources to the two tasks at hand.

Predictability of sleep in insomnia: sleep patterns of patients from a sleep psychology clinic.

The present study aims at identifying sleep patterns in insomnia in a clinical sample using three strategies to define poor nights. Sleep diaries and self-reported questionnaires were collected from 77 clinical patients with insomnia. The conditional probabilities of observing a poor night after 1, 2, or 3 consecutive poor nights were computed according to three strategies with same criteria for sleep onset latency, wake after sleep onset, and sleep efficiency, but varying criterion for total sleep time. Latent profile analyses were conducted to derive sleep patterns. Uni- and multivariate analyses were conducted to characterise the sleep patterns identified. A total of 1586 nights were analysed. The strategy used significantly influenced the average percentage of reported poor nights. Two to three sleep patterns were derived per strategy. Within each strategy, sleep patterns differed from each other on sleep variables and night-to-night variability. Results suggest the existence of sleep patterns in insomnia among individuals consulting in psychological clinics. Adding a total sleep time of 6-h cut-off as a criterion to define poor nights increases the accuracy of the strategy to define poor night and allows to identify sleep patterns of poor nights in insomnia.

Social Vulnerability and Compliance With World Health Organization Advice on Protective Behaviors Against COVID-19 in African and Asia Pacific Countries: Factor Analysis to Develop a Social Vulnerability Index.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 protective behaviors are key interventions advised by the World Health Organization (WHO) to prevent COVID-19 transmission. However, achieving compliance with this advice is often challenging, particularly among socially vulnerable groups. OBJECTIVE: We developed a social vulnerability index (SVI) to predict individuals' propensity to adhere to the WHO advice on protective behaviors against COVID-19 and identify changes in social vulnerability as Omicron evolved in African countries between January 2022 and August 2022 and Asia Pacific countries between August 2021 and June 2022. METHODS: In African countries, baseline data were collected from 14 countries (n=15,375) during the first Omicron wave, and follow-up data were collected from 7 countries (n=7179) after the wave. In Asia Pacific countries, baseline data were collected from 14 countries (n=12,866) before the first Omicron wave, and follow-up data were collected from 9 countries (n=8737) after the wave. Countries' socioeconomic and health profiles were retrieved from relevant databases. To construct the SVI for each of the 4 data sets, variables associated with COVID-19 protective behaviors were included in a factor analysis using polychoric correlation with varimax rotation. Influential factors were adjusted for cardinality, summed, and min-max normalized from 0 to 1 (most to least vulnerable). Scores for compliance with the WHO advice were calculated using individuals' self-reported protective behaviors against COVID-19. Multiple linear regression analyses were used to assess the associations between the SVI and scores for compliance to WHO advice to validate the index. RESULTS: In Africa, factors contributing to social vulnerability included literacy and media use, trust in health care workers and government, and country income and infrastructure. In Asia Pacific, social vulnerability was determined by literacy, country income and infrastructure, and population density. The index was associated with compliance with the WHO advice in both time points in African countries but only during the follow-up period in Asia Pacific countries. At baseline, the index values in African countries ranged from 0.00 to 0.31 in 13 countries, with 1 country having an index value of 1.00. The index values in Asia Pacific countries ranged from 0.00 to 0.23 in 12 countries, with 2 countries having index values of 0.79 and 1.00. During the follow-up phase, the index values decreased in 6 of 7 African countries and the 2 most vulnerable Asia Pacific countries. The index values of the least vulnerable countries remained unchanged in both regions. CONCLUSIONS: In both regions, significant inequalities in social vulnerability to compliance with WHO advice were observed at baseline, and the gaps became larger after the first Omicron wave. Understanding the dimensions that influence social vulnerability to protective behaviors against COVID-19 may underpin targeted interventions to enhance compliance with WHO recommendations and mitigate the impact of future pandemics among vulnerable groups.

Predictability of human mobility during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States.

Human mobility is fundamental to a range of applications including epidemic control, urban planning, and traffic engineering. While laws governing individual movement trajectories and population flows across locations have been extensively studied, the predictability of population-level mobility during the COVID-19 pandemic driven by specific activities such as work, shopping, and recreation remains elusive. Here we analyze mobility data for six place categories at the US county level from 2020 February 15 to 2021 November 23 and measure how the predictability of these mobility metrics changed during the COVID-19 pandemic. We quantify the time-varying predictability in each place category using an information-theoretic metric, permutation entropy. We find disparate predictability patterns across place categories over the course of the pandemic, suggesting differential behavioral changes in human activities perturbed by disease outbreaks. Notably, predictability change in foot traffic to residential locations is mostly in the opposite direction to other mobility categories. Specifically, visits to residences had the highest predictability during stay-at-home orders in March 2020, while visits to other location types had low predictability during this period. This pattern flipped after the lifting of restrictions during summer 2020. We identify four key factors, including weather conditions, population size, COVID-19 case growth, and government policies, and estimate their nonlinear effects on mobility predictability. Our findings provide insights on how people change their behaviors during public health emergencies and may inform improved interventions in future epidemics.

Role of Early On-Treatment Serum HBV RNA Declines in Predicting Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk in Patients With Chronic Hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk prediction models established in patients with chronic hepatitis B receiving a nucleos(t)ide analogue (NA) rarely include viral factors because of mediocre predictability of traditional viral markers. Here, we investigate the role of serum hepatitis B virus (HBV) RNA, a novel biomarker, in predicting HCC risk in NA-treated patients. METHODS: A total of 1374 NA-treated patients were enrolled from 2 prospective chronic hepatitis B cohorts. Serum HBV RNA was detected at baseline, year 1, 2 and 3 of treatment. Cox proportional-hazard model was used to investigate the association of HBV RNA kinetics with HCC risk. RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 5.4 years, 76 patients developed HCC. HBV RNA declines at year 1 (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.70, P = .009) and 2 (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.71; P = .016) were independently associated with HCC risk. Patients with less HBV RNA decline at year 1 (≤0.4 log10 copies/mL) or 2 (≤0.6 log10 copies/mL) had 2.22- and 2.09-folds higher HCC risk, respectively, than those with more declines. When incorporating these early on-treatment HBV RNA declines into existing HCC risk scores, including PAGE-B (age, sex, and platelets), modified PAGE-B (mPAGE-B) (age, sex, platelets, and albumin), and aMAP (age, sex, platelets, and albumin-bilirubin score) score, they could enhance their predictive performance (ie, C-index 0.814 vs 0.78 [model (PAGE-B + year-1 HBV RNA decline) vs PAGE-B score based on baseline parameters]). CONCLUSIONS: Serum HBV RNA declines at year 1 and 2 were significantly associated with on-treatment HCC risk. Incorporating early on-treatment HBV RNA declines into HCC risk prediction models can be useful tools to guide appropriate surveillance strategies in NA-treated patients.

On the road to comfort: Evaluating the influence of motion predictability on motion sickness in automated vehicles.

Automated vehicles could increase the risk of motion sickness because occupants are not involved in driving and do not watch the road. This paper aimed to investigate the influence of motion predictability on motion sickness in automated vehicles, as better motion anticipation is believed to mitigate motion sickness. In a simulator-based study, twenty participants experienced two driving conditions differing only in turn directions. The repetitive condition featured a repeating turn direction pattern. The non-repetitive condition contained pseudo-randomly ordered turn directions. To mimic an 'eyes-off-the-road' setting and prevent visual motion anticipation, road visuals were omitted. No significant differences in sickness or head motion, a metric for motion anticipation, were found between the conditions. No participant recognised the repeating turn pattern. This suggests no increased motion anticipation in the repetitive condition, possibly due to a reduced ability to recognise a repeating motion pattern in one degree of freedom within more complex motion.

Motion anticipation is believed to mitigate motion sickness. However, in this simulator-based study on automated vehicles, no significant differences in motion anticipation or sickness were observed between repetitive and non-repetitive turn directions. Recognition of a repeating motion pattern in one degree of freedom might be diminished when it is part of more complex motion.

Parallel EEG assessment of different sound predictability levels in tinnitus.

Tinnitus denotes the perception of a non-environmental sound and might result from aberrant auditory prediction. Successful prediction of formal (e.g., type) and temporal sound characteristics facilitates the filtering of irrelevant information, also labelled as 'sensory gating' (SG). Here, we explored if and how parallel manipulations of formal prediction violations and temporal predictability affect SG in persons with and without tinnitus. Age-, education- and sex-matched persons with and without tinnitus (N = 52) participated and listened to paired-tone oddball sequences, varying in formal (standard vs. deviant pitch) and temporal predictability (isochronous vs. random timing). EEG was recorded from 128 channels and data were analyzed by means of temporal spatial principal component analysis (tsPCA). SG was assessed by amplitude suppression for the 2nd tone in a pair and was observed in P50-like activity in both timing conditions and groups. Correspondingly, deviants elicited overall larger amplitudes than standards. However, only persons without tinnitus displayed a larger N100-like deviance response in the isochronous compared to the random timing condition. This result might imply that persons with tinnitus do not benefit similarly as persons without tinnitus from temporal predictability in deviance processing. Thus, persons with tinnitus might display less temporal sensitivity in auditory processing than persons without tinnitus.

The Role of the Medial Prefrontal Cortex in Spatial Margin of Safety Calculations.

Naturalistic observations show that animals pre-empt danger by moving to locations that increase their success in avoiding future threats. To test this in humans, we created a spatial margin of safety (MOS) decision task that quantifies pre-emptive avoidance by measuring the distance subjects place themselves to safety when facing different threats whose attack locations vary in predictability. Behavioral results show that human participants place themselves closer to safe locations when facing threats that attack in spatial locations with more outliers. Using both univariate and multivariate pattern analysis (MVPA) on fMRI data collected during a 2 h session on participants of both sexes, we demonstrate a dissociable role for the vmPFC in MOS-related decision-making. MVPA results revealed that the posterior vmPFC encoded for more unpredictable threats with univariate analyses showing a functional coupling with the amygdala and hippocampus. Conversely, the anterior vmPFC was more active for the more predictable attacks and showed coupling with the striatum. Our findings converge in showing that during pre-emptive danger, the anterior vmPFC may provide a safety signal, possibly via foreseeable outcomes, while the posterior vmPFC drives unpredictable danger signals.

Predicting Future Birth Rates with the Use of an Adaptive Machine Learning Algorithm: A Forecasting Experiment for Scotland.

The total fertility rate is influenced over an extended period of time by shifts in population socioeconomic characteristics and attitudes and values. However, it may be impacted by macroeconomic trends in the short term, although these effects are likely to be minimal when fertility is low. With the objective of forecasting monthly deliveries, this study concentrates on the analysis of registered births in Scotland. Through this approach, we examine the significance of precisely forecasting fertility trends, which can subsequently aid in the anticipation of demand in diverse sectors by allowing policymakers to anticipate changes in population dynamics and customize policies to tackle emerging demographic challenges. Consequently, this has implications for fiscal stability, national economic accounts and the environment. In conducting our analysis, we incorporated non-linear machine learning methods alongside traditional statistical approaches to forecast monthly births in an out-of-sample exercise that occurs one step in advance. The outcomes underscore the efficacy of machine learning in generating precise predictions within this particular domain. In sum, this research will comprehensively demonstrate a cutting-edge model of machine learning that utilizes several attributes to assist in clinical decision-making, predict potential complications during pregnancy and choose the appropriate delivery method, as well as help in medical diagnosis and treatment.

Spiking Laguerre Volterra networks-predicting neuronal activity from local field potentials.

Objective.Understanding the generative mechanism between local field potentials (LFP) and neuronal spiking activity is a crucial step for understanding information processing in the brain. Up to now, most approaches have relied on simply quantifying the coupling between LFP and spikes. However, very few have managed to predict the exact timing of spike occurrence based on LFP variations.Approach.Here, we fill this gap by proposing novel spiking Laguerre-Volterra network (sLVN) models to describe the dynamic LFP-spike relationship. Compared to conventional artificial neural networks, the sLVNs are interpretable models that provide explainable features of the underlying dynamics.Main results.The proposed networks were applied on extracellular microelectrode recordings of Parkinson's Disease patients during deep brain stimulation (DBS) surgery. Based on the predictability of the LFP-spike pairs, we detected three neuronal populations with unique signal characteristics and sLVN model features.Significance.These clusters were indirectly associated with motor score improvement following DBS surgery, warranting further investigation into the potential of spiking activity predictability as an intraoperative biomarker for optimal DBS lead placement.

Clear Aligner Therapy Concerns: Addressing Discrepancies Between Digitally Anticipated Outcomes and Clinical Ground Realities.

Expeditious strides in the fields of biomaterials, computer-aided design, and manufacturing have catapulted clear aligner therapy (CAT) to become a comprehensive orthodontic treatment modality. The efficiency of achieving planned tooth movement with clear aligners is a significant consideration while setting up the final treatment goals, as well as calculating treatment times and costs based on the available evidence. Contemporary research outcomes confirm that one of the most commonly reported clinical concerns with CAT is the discrepancy between the prescribed outcome in the digital treatment plan and the clinically achieved outcome from a given series of aligners. Inaccurate prediction of tooth movements may not only lead to a prolonged duration of aligner treatment with an additional need for refinement strategies; but it may also cause other concerns, such as patient burnout and increased potential for relapse. The authors of this paper have elucidated some of the critical elements that may help address this discrepancy between digitally prescribed and clinical outcomes based on an evidence-based approach with regard to the predictability and accuracy of CAT. A strong diagnostic acumen, judicious case selection, solid biomechanical understanding of various types of orthodontic tooth movements, a research framework that keeps pace with technological and material developments and provides evidence-based knowledge of the limitations of CAT; and above all, the ability of the clinician to continually innovate as per different clinical scenarios, all contribute to attaining treatment predictability, efficacy, and efficiency with CAT.

Predicting language outcome at birth.

Even though most children acquire language effortlessly, not all do. Nowadays, language disorders are difficult to diagnose before 3-4 years of age, because diagnosis relies on behavioral criteria difficult to obtain early in life. Using electroencephalography, I investigated whether differences in newborns' neural activity when listening to sentences in their native language (French) and a rhythmically different unfamiliar language (English) relate to measures of later language development at 12 and 18 months. Here I show that activation differences in the theta band at birth predict language comprehension abilities at 12 and 18 months. These findings suggest that a neural measure of language discrimination at birth could be used in the early identification of infants at risk of developmental language disorders.

Evolution of leapfrog migration: A test of competition-based hypotheses.

Leapfrog migration is a common migration pattern in birds where the breeding and wintering latitudes between populations are in reversed latitudinal sequence. Competition for wintering and breeding sites has been suggested to be an ultimate factor, and several competitor-based hypotheses have been proposed to explain this pattern. If wintering sites close to the breeding sites are favored, competitive exclusion could force subdominant individuals to winter further away. Competitive exclusion could be mediated either through body size or by prior occupancy. The alternative "spring predictability" hypothesis assumes competition for sufficiently close wintering areas, allowing the birds to use autocorrelated weather cues to optimally time spring migration departure. To test predictions and assumptions of these hypotheses, we combined morphometrics, migration, and weather data from four populations of common ringed plover breeding along a latitudinal (56-68° N) and climatic gradient (temperate to Arctic). Critical for our evaluation was that two populations were breeding on the same latitude in subarctic Sweden with the same distance to the closest potential wintering site, but differed in breeding phenology, and wintered in West Africa and Europe, respectively. Thus, while breeding on the same latitude, their winter distribution overlapped with that of an Arctic and temperate population. Body size was largest within the temperate population, but there was no size difference between the two subarctic populations. Populations wintering in Europe arrived there before populations wintering in Africa. The largest variation in the arrival of meteorological spring occurred at the temperate breeding site, while there was almost no difference among the other sites. In general, temperatures at the northernmost wintering area correlated well with each breeding site prior to breeding site-specific spring arrival. Based on these observations, we conclude that competitive exclusion through body-size-related dominance cannot explain leapfrog migration. Furthermore, the assumptions on which the "spring predictability" hypothesis is based did not match the observed wintering ranges either. However, we could not reject the hypothesis that competitive exclusion mediated by prior occupancy in the wintering area could lead to leapfrog migration, and therefore, this hypothesis should be retained as working hypothesis for further work.