The impact of Zika emergence in remote communities in northwestern Ecuador.

The Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic in Latin America (2015-2016) has primarily been studied in urban centers, with less understanding of its impact on smaller rural communities. To address this gap, we analyzed ZIKV sero-epidemiology in six rural Ecuadorian communities (2018-2019) with varying access to a commercial hub. Seroprevalence ranged from 19% to 54% measured by NS1 blockade of binding ELISA. We observed a decline in ZIKV seroprevalence between 2018 and 2019 that was greater among younger populations, suggesting that the attack rates in the 2015-16 epidemic were significantly higher than our 2018 observations. These data indicate that the 2015-16 epidemic included significant transmission in rural and more remote settings. Our observations of high seroprevalence in our area of study highlights the importance of surveillance and research in rural areas lacking robust health systems to manage future Zika outbreaks and vaccine initiatives.

Modeling the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant dynamics in the United States with booster dose vaccination and waning immunity.

We carried out a theoretical and numerical analysis for an epidemic model to analyze the dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant and the impact of vaccination campaigns in the United States. The model proposed here includes asymptomatic and hospitalized compartments, vaccination with booster doses, and the waning of natural and vaccine-acquired immunity. We also consider the influence of face mask usage and efficiency. We found that enhancing booster doses and using N95 face masks are associated with a reduction in the number of new infections, hospitalizations and deaths. We highly recommend the use of surgical face masks as well, if usage of N95 is not a possibility due to the price range. Our simulations show that there might be two upcoming Omicron waves (in mid-2022 and late 2022), caused by natural and acquired immunity waning with respect to time. The magnitude of these waves will be 53% and 25% lower than the peak in January 2022, respectively. Hence, we recommend continuing to use face masks to decrease the peak of the upcoming COVID-19 waves.

A Novel Approach to Obtain Vaccine Effectiveness Continuous Profiles. Example Case: COVID-19 in Elderly Mexicans.

Population-wide vaccination is the most promising long-term COVID-19 disease management strategy. However, the protection offered by the currently available COVID-19 vaccines wanes over time, requiring boosters to be periodically given, which represents an unattainable challenge, especially if it is necessary to apply several doses per year. Therefore, it is essential to design strategies that contribute to maximizing the control of the pandemic with the available vaccines. Achieving this objective requires knowing, as precisely and accurately as possible, the changes in vaccine effectiveness over time in each population group, considering the eventual dependence on age, sex, etc. Thus, the present work proposes a novel approach to calculating realistic effectiveness profiles against symptomatic disease. In addition, this strategy can be adapted to estimate realistic effectiveness profiles against hospitalizations or deaths. All such time-dependent profiles allow the design of improved vaccination schedules, where each dose can be administrated to the population groups so that the fulfillment of the containment objectives is maximized. As a practical example for this analysis, vaccination against COVID-19 in Mexico was considered. However, this methodology can be applied to other countries' data or to characterize future vaccines with time-dependent effectiveness values. Since this strategy uses aggregated observational data collected from massive databases, assumptions about the data validity and the course of the studied epidemic could eventually be necessary.

A nested model with boosting and waning of immunity from Tilapia Lake Virus infection with distributed resistance to pathogens carrier-state.

This paper proposes and analyzes an immune-structured population model of tilapia subject to Tilapia Lake Virus (TiLV) disease. The model incorporates within-host dynamics, used to describe the interaction between the pathogen, the immune system and the waning of immunity. Individuals infected with a low dose acquire a low immunity level and those infected with a high dose acquire a high level of immunity. Since individuals' immune status plays an important role in the spread of infectious diseases at the population level, the within-host dynamics are connected to the between-host dynamics in the population. We define an explicit formula for the reproductive number [Formula: see text] and show that the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable when [Formula: see text], while it is unstable when [Formula: see text]. Furthermore, we prove that an endemic equilibrium exists. We also study the influence of the initial distribution of host resistance on the spread of the disease, and find that hosts' initial resistance plays a crucial role in the disease dynamics. This suggests that the genetic selection aiming to improve hosts' initial resistance to TiLV could help fight the disease. The results also point out the crucial role played by the inoculum size. We find that the higher the initial inoculum size, the faster the dynamics of infection. Moreover, if the initial inoculum size is below a certain threshold, it may not result in an outbreak at the between-host level. Finally, the model shows that there is a strong negative correlation between heterogeneity and the probability of pathogen invasion.

Dynamics of Naturally Acquired Immunity Against Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 in Children and Adolescents.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the duration of protection against reinfection conferred by a previous severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in children and adolescents. STUDY DESIGN: We applied 2 complementary approaches: a matched test-negative, case-control design and a retrospective cohort design. A total of 458 959 unvaccinated individuals aged 5-18 years were included. The analyses focused on the period July 1, 2021, to December 13, 2021, a period of Delta variant dominance in Israel. We evaluated 3 SARS-CoV-2-related outcomes: documented polymerase chain reaction-confirmed infection or reinfection, symptomatic infection or reinfection, and SARS-CoV-2-related hospitalization or death. RESULTS: Overall, children and adolescents who were previously infected acquired durable protection against reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 for at least 18 months. Importantly, no SARS-CoV-2-related deaths were recorded in either the SARS-CoV-2-naïve group or the previously infected group. The effectiveness of naturally acquired immunity against a recurrent infection reached 89.2% (95% CI, 84.7%-92.4%) at 3-6 months after the first infection and declined slightly to 82.5% (95% CI, 79.1%-85.3%) by 9-12 months after infection, with a slight nonsignificant waning trend seen up to 18 months after infection. Additionally, children aged 5-11 years exhibited no significant waning of naturally acquired protection throughout the outcome period, whereas waning protection in those aged 12-18 years was more prominent but still mild. CONCLUSIONS: Children and adolescents who were previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 remain protected to a high degree for 18 months. Further research is needed to examine naturally acquired immunity against Omicron and newer emerging variants.

Waning immunity to SARS-CoV-2 following vaccination or infection.

We use survival analysis to analyze the decay in the protection induced by eight SARS-CoV-2 vaccines using data from 33,418 fully anonymized patients from the IMSS public health system in Mexico, including only previously vaccinated, confirmed SARS-CoV-2 positive with a PCR test. We analyze the waning effect in those with complete vs. incomplete dose fitting a Weibull distribution. We compare these results with an estimate of the waning effect due to active infection. In two-dose vaccines, we found that the average protection time of a complete dose increases 2.6 times compared to that of an incomplete dose. All analyzed vaccines provided a protection that lasted longer than the protection due to active infection, except in those patients that did not fulfilled the complete dose. The average protection of a full dose is 2.2 times larger than that provided by active infection. The average protection of active infection is about the same as the average protection of an incomplete dose. All evaluated vaccines had lost most of their protective effect between 8 and 11 months of application of first shot. Our results highly correlate with NT50 and other estimates of vaccine efficacy. We found that on average, vaccination increases Age50, the age at which there is a 50% probability of severe disease if infected, in 15 years. We also found that Age50 increases with mean protection time.

Modelling of Waning of Immunity and Reinfection Induced Antibody Boosting of SARS-CoV-2 in Manaus, Brazil.

It was reported that the Brazilian city, Manaus, likely exceeded the herd immunity threshold (presumably 60-70%) in November 2020 after the first wave of COVID-19, based on the serological data of a routine blood donor. However, a second wave started in November 2020, when an even higher magnitude of deaths hit the city. The arrival of the second wave coincided with the emergence of the Gamma (P.1) variant of SARS-CoV-2, with higher transmissibility, a younger age profile of cases, and a higher hospitalization rate. Prete et al. (2020 MedRxiv 21256644) found that 8 to 33 of 238 (3.4-13.9%) repeated blood donors likely were infected twice in Manaus between March 2020 and March 2021. It is unclear how this finding can be used to explain the second wave. We propose a simple model which allows reinfection to explain the two-wave pattern in Manaus. We find that the two waves with 30% and 40% infection attack rates, respectively, and a reinfection ratio at 3.4-13.9%, can explain the two waves well. We argue that the second wave was likely because the city had not exceeded the herd immunity level after the first wave. The reinfection likely played a weak role in causing the two waves.

Zika Virus Antibody Titers Three Years after Confirmed Infection.

BACKGROUND: In 2015-2016, a large Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak occurred in the Americas. Although the exact ZIKV antibody kinetics after infection are unknown, recent evidence indicates the rapid waning of ZIKV antibodies in humans. Therefore, we aimed to determine the levels of ZIKV antibodies more than three years after a ZIKV infection. METHODS: We performed ZIKV virus neutralization tests (VNT) and a commercial ZIKV non-structural protein 1 (NS1) IgG ELISA in a cohort of 49 participants from Suriname who had a polymerase-chain-reaction-confirmed ZIKV infection more than three years ago. Furthermore, we determined the presence of antibodies against multiple dengue virus (DENV) antigens. RESULTS: The ZIKV seroprevalence in this cohort, assessed with ZIKV VNT and ZIKV NS1 IgG ELISA, was 59.2% and 63.3%, respectively. There was, however, no correlation between these two tests. Furthermore, we did not find evidence of a potential negative influence of DENV immunity on ZIKV antibody titers. CONCLUSIONS: ZIKV seroprevalence, assessed with two commonly used serological tests, was lower than expected in this cohort of participants who had a confirmed previous ZIKV infection. This can have implications for future ZIKV seroprevalence studies and possibly for the duration of immunological protection after a ZIKV infection.

Brotes epidémicos de parotiditis, revisión de la literatura / Mumps outbreaks, literature review

La parotiditis es un infección viral producida por el virus parotídeo. Clínicamente se caracteriza por aumento de volumen de la glándula parótida generalmente bilateral. La estrategia que ha mostrado ser más eficaz para la prevención de esta infección ha sido la implementación de la vacuna tres vírica en los programas de inmunización. En países con población altamente inmunizada como Chile, se logró una importante disminución de la incidencia de esta enfermedad. Sin embargo, a pesar de la efectividad de la vacuna se siguen reportando brotes en todo el mundo, evidenciándose un cambio epidemiológico, trasladándose la edad de presentación clínica desde la niñez y adolescencia hacia los adultos jóvenes. Este aumento en el número de casos ha sido estudiado, determinando que el efecto protector inmunitario de la vacuna decaería con el transcurso del tiempo, contribuyendo a la propagación de los brotes. Con respecto a posibles estrategias para el manejo de los brotes la aplicación de una dosis adicional de la vacunas tres vírica en población expuesta sería una medida que mejoraría el control de los brotes.

Mumps is a viral infection caused by mumps virus. Clinically, it is characterized by increased parotid volume. The most effective strategy for preventing this infection, has been the implementation of measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine in the national immunization program. Among countries with a highly immunized population, like Chile, there has been an important reduction in the incidence of this disease. Nevertheless, despite the effectivity of the MMR, there are reports of outbreaks worldwide, with an epidemiological change, from clinical presentation in childhood, to adolescents and adults. This outbreaks have been studied, and it has been determined that they are due to the waning of vaccine-derived immunity. Regarding strategies for the management of new outbreaks, the administration of an additional dose of MMR, would be an alternative.