NEWS2, S/F-ratio and ROX-index at emergency department for the prediction of adverse outcomes in COVID-19 patients: An external validation study.

BACKGROUND: In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, the early and accurate identification of patients at risk of deterioration was crucial in overcrowded and resource-limited emergency departments. This study conducts an external validation for the evaluation of the performance of the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2), the S/F ratio, and the ROX index at ED admission in a large cohort of COVID-19 patients from Colombia, South America, assessing the net clinical benefit with decision curve analysis. METHODS: A prospective cohort study was conducted on 6907 adult patients with confirmed COVID-19 admitted to a tertiary care ED in Colombia. The study evaluated the diagnostic performance of NEWS2, S/F ratio, and ROX index scores at ED admission using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for discrimination, calibration, and decision curve analysis for the prediction of intensive care unit admission, invasive mechanical ventilation, and in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: We included 6907 patients who presented to the ED with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection from March 2020 to November 2021. Mean age was 51 (35-65) years and 50.4% of patients were males. The rate of intensive care unit admission was 28%, and in-hospital death was 9.8%. All three scores have good discriminatory performance for the three outcomes based on the AUROC. S/F ratio showed miscalibration at low predicted probabilities and decision curve analysis indicated that the NEWS2 score provided a greater net benefit compared to other scores across at a 10% threshold to decide ED admission at a high-level of care facility. CONCLUSIONS: The NEWS2, S/F ratio, and ROX index at ED admission have good discriminatory performances in COVID-19 patients for the prediction of adverse outcomes, but the NEWS2 score has a higher net benefit underscoring its clinical utility in optimizing patient management and resource allocation in emergency settings.

External validation of two clinical prediction models for mortality in COVID-19 patients (4C and NEWS2), in three centers in Medellín, Colombia: Assessing the impact of vaccination over time.

OBJECTIVES: External validation of the 4C and NEWS2 scores for the prediction of in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients, and evaluation of its operational performance in two time periods: before and after the start of the vaccination program in Colombia. METHODS: Retrospective cohort in three high complexity hospitals in the city of Medellín, Colombia, between June 2020 and April 2022. RESULTS: The areas under the ROC curve (AUC) for the 4C mortality risk score and the NEWS2 were 0.75 (95% CI 0.73-0.78) and 0.68 (95% CI 0.66-0.71), respectively. For the 4C score, the AUC for the first and second periods was 0.77 (95% CI 0.74-0.80) and 0.75 (95% CI 0.71-0.78); whilst for the NEWS2 score, it was 0.68 (95% CI 0.65-0.71) and 0.69 (95% CI 0.64-0.73). The calibration for both scores was adequate, albeit with reduced performance during the second period. CONCLUSIONS: The 4C mortality risk score proved to be the more adequate predictor of in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients in this Latin American population. The operational performance during both time periods remained similar, which shows its utility notwithstanding major changes, including vaccination, as the pandemic evolved.

Derivación y validación de un nuevo puntaje predictivo de mortalidad por covid-19 en la altura / Derivation and Validation of a New covid-19 Predictive Score for Mortality at High Altitude / Derivação e validação de um novo escore preditivo de mortalidade por covid-19 em altitude

Objetivo: desarrollar un puntaje predictivo de mortalidad para pacientes con covid-19. Materiales y méto-dos: estudio retrospectivo, analítico, observacional y transversal, realizado en dos fases. Se revisaron 620 historias clínicas con una cohorte de derivación de 320 pacientes y una de validación de 300 pacientes. Las variables se analizaron con test de Anova, chi cuadrado de Pearson y análisis multivariante con regresión binaria, que determinaron sensibilidad, especificidad y valor predictivo negativo y positivo. Los puntajes se compararon mediante curvas cor con los scoresnews y hews. Resultados: los dos puntajes obtenidos incluyeron valores de edad, conteo de linfocitos, SatO2/FiO2, leucocitos, plaquetas, ausencia de síntomas, hipertensión arterial, epid y dhl. El área bajo la curva (abc) fue de 0.838 para el puntaje con dhl, con una mortalidad del 100 % para 7.75 puntos o más, y un abc de 0.826 para el primer puntaje. En la cohorte de validación, el abc para el primer puntaje fue de 0.831 y para el score con dhl fue 0.855. El puntaje hewsobtuvo un abc de 0.451, y el news, un abc de 0.396. Conclusiones: se desarrollaron dos herramientas para predecir mortalidad en pacientes con covid-19, con alto poder de discriminación, superior a los puntajes británicos hews y news

Objetivo: desarrollar un puntaje predictivo de mortalidad para pacientes con covid-19. Materiales y méto-dos: estudio retrospectivo, analítico, observacional y transversal, realizado en dos fases. Se revisaron 620 historias clínicas con una cohorte de derivación de 320 pacientes y una de validación de 300 pacientes. Las variables se analizaron con test de Anova, chi cuadrado de Pearson y análisis multivariante con regresión binaria, que determinaron sensibilidad, especificidad y valor predictivo negativo y positivo. Los puntajes se compararon mediante curvas cor con los scoresnews y hews. Resultados: los dos puntajes obtenidos incluyeron valores de edad, conteo de linfocitos, SatO2/FiO2, leucocitos, plaquetas, ausencia de síntomas, hipertensión arterial, epid y dhl. El área bajo la curva (abc) fue de 0.838 para el puntaje con dhl, con una mortalidad del 100 % para 7.75 puntos o más, y un abc de 0.826 para el primer puntaje. En la cohorte de validación, el abc para el primer puntaje fue de 0.831 y para el score con dhl fue 0.855. El puntaje hewsobtuvo un abc de 0.451, y el news, un abc de 0.396. Conclusiones: se desarrollaron dos herramientas para predecir mortalidad en pacientes con covid-19, con alto poder de discriminación, superior a los puntajes británicos hews y news

Objetivo: desenvolver um escore preditivo de mortalidade para pacientes com covid-19. Materiais e Métodos: estudo retrospectivo, analítico, observacional e transversal, realizado em duas fases. Foram revisados 620 prontuários, com uma coorte de derivação de 320 pacientes e uma coorte de validação de 300 pacientes. As variáveis foram analisadas com teste anova, qui-quadrado de Pearson e análise multivariada com regressão binária, determinando sensibilidade, especificidade, valor preditivo nega-tivo e positivo. As pontuações foram comparadas por meio de curvas cor com as pontuações news e hews. Resultados: os dois escores obtidos incluíram valores de: idade, contagem de linfócitos, SatO2/FiO2, leucócitos, plaquetas, ausência de sintomas, hipertensão arterial, epid e dhl. A área sob a curva (abc) foi de 0,838 para o escore dhl, com 100 % de mortalidade para 7,75 pontos ou mais, e uma abc de 0,826 para o primeiro escore. Na coorte de validação, a abc para o primeiro escore foi de 0,831 e para o escore com dhl foi de 0,855. A pontuação hews obteve abc de 0,451 e o news uma abc de 0,396. Conclusões: foram desenvolvidas duas ferramentas para prever mortalidade em pacientes com covid-19, com alto poder de discriminação, superior aos escores britânicos hews e news

Desempenho do Escore Pediátrico de Alerta (EPA) no rastreio da sepse / Desempeño del Puntaje Pediátrico de Alerta (EPA) para el rastreo de la sepsis / Pediatric Alert Score (EPA) performance in sepsis screening

Resumo Objetivo Avaliar o desempenho do Escore Pediátrico de Alerta (EPA) no rastreio de casos de sepse em um contexto hospitalar. Métodos Estudo de teste diagnóstico guiado pelas recomendações do Standards for the Reporting of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (STARD). A amostra foi de 190 crianças e adolescentes internados em um hospital do interior da Bahia, Brasil. A coleta foi realizada em banco de dados de um projeto guarda-chuva, em prontuários e sistema de registros do hospital. O processamento e análise foram realizados no SPSS® version 25.0 for Windows e MedCalc® version 20.00. O desempenho do EPA no rastreio da sepse quando comparado aos critérios do padrão de referência foi mensurado através da Sensibilidade, Especificidade, Valores Preditivos e curva ROC. Resultados Dentre os participantes, 53,2% eram do sexo masculino, com média da idade de 4,39 anos (DP: 4,28) e mediana 3 anos (IIQ: 1 - 8). A prevalência da sepse identificada pelo padrão de referência foi de 10% e pelo EPA 23.1%. A sensibilidade, especificidade e valores preditivos positivo e negativo do EPA no rastreio de sepse foram de 73,7%, 82,5%, 31,8% e 96,6%, respectivamente. A área sob a curva ROC foi de 0,794. Conclusão O estudo apresenta evidências sobre o desempenho do EPA no rastreio da sepse, demonstrando boa acurácia na discriminação de pacientes pediátricos com e sem sepse na amostra estudada.

Resumen Objetivo Evaluar el desempeño del Puntaje Pediátrico de Alerta (EPA, por sus siglas en portugués) para el rastreo de casos de sepsis en un contexto hospitalario. Métodos Estudio de prueba diagnóstica guiado por las recomendaciones del Standards for the Reporting of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (STARD). La muestra estuvo compuesta por 190 infantes y adolescentes internados en un hospital del interior del estado de Bahia, Brasil. La recopilación se realizó en un banco de datos de un proyecto paraguas, en historias clínicas y en el sistema de registros del hospital. El procesamiento y el análisis se realizaron en el SPSS® version 25.0 for Windows y MedCalc® version 20.00. El desempeño del EPA para el rastreo de la sepsis, cuando se lo compara con los criterios del modelo de referencia, se midió a través de la sensibilidad, especificidad, valores predictivos y curva ROC. Resultados Entre los participantes, el 53,2 % era de sexo masculino, con edad promedio de 4,39 años (DP: 4,28) y mediana de 3 años (IIQ: 1 - 8). La prevalencia de la sepsis identificada por el modelo de referencia fue del 10 % y por el EPA del 23,1 %. La sensibilidad, la especificidad y los valores predictivos positivo y negativo del EPA para el rastreo de la sepsis fue del 73,7 %, 82,5 %, 31,8 % y 96,6 %, respectivamente. El área bajo la curva ROC fue de 0,794. Conclusión El estudio presenta evidencias sobre el desempeño del EPA para el rastreo de la sepsis y demuestra una buena precisión en la discriminación de pacientes pediátricos con y sin sepsis en la muestra estudiada.

Abstract Objective To assess Pediatric Alert Score (EPA) performance in screening cases of sepsis in a hospital context. Methods This is a diagnostic test study guided by the Standards for the Reporting of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (STARD) recommendations. The sample consisted of 190 children and adolescents admitted to a hospital in the countryside of Bahia, Brazil. Data collection was carried out in the database of an umbrella project in medical records and the hospital's records system. Processing and analysis were performed in SPSS® version 25.0 for Windows and MedCalc® version 20.00. EPA performance in sepsis screening when compared to the reference standard criteria was measured through sensitivity, specificity, predictive values and ROC curve. Results Among the participants, 53.2% were male, with a mean age of 4.39 years (SD: 4.28) and a median of 3 years (IQR: 1 - 8). The prevalence of sepsis identified by the reference standard was 10% and by EPA (23.1%). The sensitivity, specificity and positive and negative predictive values of EPA in sepsis screening were 73.7%, 82.5%, 31.8% and 96.6%, respectively. The area under the ROC curve was 0.794. Conclusion The study presents evidence on EPA performance in sepsis screening, demonstrating good accuracy in discriminating pediatric patients with and without sepsis in the studied sample.

Modified Early Warning Score: Clinical Deterioration of Mexican Patients Hospitalized with COVID-19 and Chronic Disease.

The objective was to evaluate the Modified Early Warning Score in patients hospitalized for COVID-19 plus chronic disease. METHODS: Retrospective observational study, 430 hospitalized patients with COVID-19 and chronic disease. Instrument, Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS). Data analysis, with Cox and logistic regression, to predict survival and risk. RESULTS: Of 430 patients, 58.6% survived, and 41.4% did not. The risk was: low 53.5%, medium 23.7%, and high 22.8%. The MEWS score was similar between survivors 3.02, p 0.373 (95% CI: -0.225-0.597) and non-survivors 3.20 (95% CI: -0.224-0.597). There is a linear relationship between MEWS and mortality risk R 0.920, ANOVA 0.000, constant 4.713, and coefficient 4.406. The Cox Regression p 0.011, with a risk of deterioration of 0.325, with a positive coefficient, the higher the risk, the higher the mortality, while the invasive mechanical ventilation coefficient was negative -0.757. By providing oxygen and ventilation, mortality is lower. CONCLUSIONS: The predictive value of the modified early warning score in patients hospitalized for COVID-19 and chronic disease is not predictive with the MEWS scale. Additional assessment is required to prevent complications, especially when patients are assessed as low-risk.

Nursing Training for Early Clinical Deterioration Risk Assessment: Protocol for an Implementation Study.

BACKGROUND: During the hospitalization period, it is possible to observe considerable changes in the vital parameters of patients, which may require emergency interventions or intensive treatment. The alteration of signs and symptoms that lead to physiological instability that can worsen the clinical picture with progression to shock, respiratory failure, or cardiorespiratory arrest is currently defined as clinical deterioration. Identifying signs of clinical deterioration at an early stage can lead to substantial decreases in mortality rates, the need for emergency interventions, and unscheduled treatments in intensive care units. Identifying and appropriately referring patients who show signs of clinical deterioration can be facilitated by applying early warning systems that provide rapid responses. The nursing team is usually the first to identify clinical changes in patients. Although the literature demonstrates that early recognition of clinical deterioration is the key to early intervention and leads to better outcomes, we only sometimes pursue the most appropriate intervention. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to implement and evaluate an evidence-based professional training program designed for nurses and coordinated by a nurse using the "just-in-time" methodology and the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) to assess the risk of early clinical deterioration and appropriate referral in inpatient units of a public university hospital in southeastern Brazil. METHODS: This intervention protocol is structured according to the recommendations of the SPIRIT (Standard Protocol Items: Recommendations for Interventional Trials) Declaration 2013. The type of training to be offered, "Just-in-Time Training," consists of a teaching modality that facilitates the delivery of a time-based and work-based education, with greater emphasis on providing on-the-job learning as needed. A qualitative stage will also be conducted through focus groups and interviews with nurses to verify the factors that influence the professional practice related to the early evaluation of the clinic. A script of previously tested questions will guide and standardize the different groups. The data will define the intervention's elements: the strategy, the type of training, the location, the teaching methodology, and the teaching material. RESULTS: The study has received authorization from the ethics committee, and participants will be recruited in July 2023. Data collection should be completed in October of the same year. The results obtained at the end of this research will be shared with the participating nursing team through the presentation of reports. In addition, the research results will be submitted to scientific journals and presented at international scientific conferences. CONCLUSIONS: This study will support nurses and possibly other clinicians to improve their approach to early recognition of clinical deterioration in patients. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Brazilian Registry of Clinical Trials RBR-5hq9y3k; https://ensaiosclinicos.gov.br/rg/RBR-5hq9y3k. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): PRR1-10.2196/47293.

Avaliação da relação entre a qualidade da anotação dos parâmetros fisiológicos, o Escore para Alerta Precoce e a adoção do Plano de Ação em enfermaria de um Hospital Universitário / Assessment of the relationship between the quality of the recording of physiological parameters, the Early Warning Score, and the adoption of the Action Plan in the ward of a University Hospital

Introdução: Em pacientes em enfermarias, eventos adversos evitáveis podem decorrer de deterioração clínica despercebida, frequentemente antecedida por alterações nos sinais vitais, fornecendo oportunidade para intervenção precoce. A adoção de Equipe de Resposta Rápida (ERR) pode melhorar esse desfecho, porém é altamente dependente do monitoramento dos parâmetros fisiológicos e da notificação da ERR. Objetivo: Avaliar a qualidade das informações em prontuários e da resposta assistencial a pacientes em enfermarias com agravamento do estado clínico, resultando em óbito ou transferência para UTI em um Hospital Universitário e fornecer dados para comparação de resultados após implantação da ERR. Material e Métodos: Estudo documental retrospectivo, entre junho de 2013 e julho de 2014, em 128 prontuários de pacientes com piora clínica que resultou em óbito ou admissão em UTI ("evento"). Foram coletados os parâmetros fisiológicos, a pontuação no Escore para Alerta Precoce e o Plano de Ação registrado em 11 momentos que antecederam o "evento", resultando em 11 escores. A relação entre a pontuação do Escore de Alerta Precoce e a execução do Plano de Ação foi classificada como "adequada", "inadequada" ou "ausente". Resultados: Quanto mais se afastava momento de ocorrência do "evento", maior foi o número de dados faltantes, ocasionando Escores de Alerta Precoce não calculáveis. O número de casos adequados foi menor quanto mais distante estava o "evento" do momento da aferição dos parâmetros fisiológicos. Conclusão: Os tempos de resposta foram inadequados ao Plano de Ação. A falha em socorrer pacientes em deterioração clínica é complexa e multifatorial, mas acredita-se que no presente relato isto se deveu, pelo menos em parte, à anotação inadequada dos parâmetros fisiológicos. Esforços devem ser envidados no sentido de reforçar a importância do registro dos parâmetros fisiológicos, de reconhecer, de intervir e de comunicar agravos, essenciais para o correto funcionamento das alças aferente e eferentes das ERR.

Introduction: Preventable adverse events may result from unnoticed clinical deterioration in inpatients, which are often preceded by changes in warning signs, providing an opportunity for early intervention. The adoption of the Rapid Response Team (ERR) can improve the outcome; however, it is highly dependent on monitoring of the physiological parameters and on notification of the ERR. Objective: To evaluate the quality of information in medical records and the care response to patients in wards with worsening of the clinical status, which resulting in death or transfer to the ICU in a University Hospital and provide data for future comparison of results after ERR deployment. Material and Methods: Documentary retrospective study, between June 2013 and July 2014, of 128 medical records of patients with clinical worsening who died in death or admission to the ICU ("event"). The physiological parameters, the score on the Early Warning Score and the Action Plan recorded in 11 moments that preceded the "event" were collected, resulting in 11 scores. The relationship between the Early Warning Score and Action Plan execution was classified as "adequate", "inadequate" or "absent". Results: The further away from the moment of occurrence of the "event", greater the number of missing data, causing non- calculable Early Warning Scores. The number of adequate cases was smaller the further away the "event" was from the moment of measurement of the physiological parameters. Conclusion: Response times were inadequate to the Action Plan. Failure to rescue patients in the clinic is a complex and multifactorial, but it is believed that in the present report this was due, at least in part, to inadequate recording of physiological parameters. Efforts should be made to reinforce the importance of recording physiological parameters, recognizing, intervening, and communicating injuries, which are essential for the correct functioning of the afferent and efferent loops of the ERR.

Multicenter validation of Early Warning Scores for detection of clinical deterioration in COVID-19 hospitalized patients.

Objective: Investigate the predictive value of NEWS2, NEWS-C, and COVID-19 Severity Index for predicting intensive care unit (ICU) transfer in the next 24 h. Design: Retrospective multicenter study. Setting: Two third-level hospitals in Argentina. Patients: All adult patients with confirmed COVID-19, admitted on general wards, excluding patients with non-intubated orders. Interventions: Patients were divided between those who were admitted to ICU and non-admitted. We calculated the three scores for each day of hospitalization. Variables: We evaluate the calibration and discrimination of the three scores for the outcome ICU admission within 24, 48 h, and at hospital admission. Results: We evaluate 13,768 days of hospitalizations on general medical wards of 1318 patients. Among these, 126 (9.5%) were transferred to ICU. The AUROC of NEWS2 was 0.73 (95%CI 0.68-0.78) 24 h before ICU admission, and 0.52 (95%CI 0.47-0.57) at hospital admission. The AUROC of NEWS-C was 0.73 (95%CI 0.68-0.78) and 0.52 (95%CI 0.47-0.57) respectively, and the AUROC of COVID-19 Severity Index was 0.80 (95%CI 0.77-0.84) and 0.61 (95%CI 0.58-0.66) respectively. COVID-19 Severity Index presented better calibration than NEWS2 and NEWS-C. Conclusion: COVID-19 Severity index has better calibration and discrimination than NEWS2 and NEWS-C to predict ICU transfer during hospitalization.

Objetivo: Investigar el valor predictivo de los scores NEWS2, NEWS-C y COVID-19 Severity Index para predecir la transferencia de urgencia a la unidad de cuidados intensivos (UCI) en las próximas 24 horas. Diseño: Estudio multicéntrico retrospectivo. Ámbito: Dos hospitales de tercer nivel en Argentina. Pacientes: Pacientes adultos con COVID-19, ingresados en salas generales, excluyendo pacientes con órdenes de no intubar. Intervenciones: Se dividió a los pacientes entre los que ingresaron en la UCI y los que no ingresaron. Calculamos las tres puntuaciones para cada día de hospitalización. Variables: Evaluamos la calibración y discriminación de las tres puntuaciones para predecir el traslado de urgencia a UCI en las 24, 48 h previas al pase a UCI y al ingreso hospitalario. Resultados: Evaluamos 13.768 días de hospitalización en internación general de 1.318 pacientes, de los cuales 126 (9,5%) fueron trasladados a UCI. El AUROC del NEWS2 fue de 0,73 (IC 95% 0,68-0,78) 24 h antes del ingreso en UCI y de 0,52 (IC 95% 0,47-0,57) al ingreso hospitalario. El AUROC de NEWS-C fue de 0,73 (IC 95% 0,68-0,78) y 0,52 (IC 95% 0,47-0,57) respectivamente, y el AUROC del COVID-19 Severity Index fue de 0,80 (IC 95% 0,77-0,84) y 0,61 (IC 95% 0,58-0,66) respectivamente. El COVID-19 Severity Index presentó una mejor calibración que NEWS2 y NEWS-C. Conclusión: El COVID-19 Severity Index presentó una mejor calibración y discriminación que NEWS2 y NEWS-C para predecir la transferencia de la UCI durante la hospitalización.

Desempenho do Escore Pediátrico de Alerta (EPA) de deterioração clínica / Desempeño del Sistema de Alerta Precoz Infantil (SAPI) de deterioración clínica / Pediatric Alert Score (EPA) performance in clinical deterioration

Resumo Objetivo Avaliar a acurácia, utilidade, reprodutibilidade e aplicabilidade do Escore Pediátrico de Alerta (EPA) na identificação da deterioração clínica em crianças e adolescentes hospitalizados. Métodos Estudo de teste diagnóstico, prospectivo, realizado entre outubro/2018 a outubro/2019, para medir a acurácia diagnóstica do EPA em uma amostra de 240 crianças, e sua reprodutibilidade e aplicabilidade em uma amostra de 60 crianças. Os dados foram processados e analisados no MedCalc e VassarStats.net. Resultados No ponto de corte ≥ 3, o escore apresentou sensibilidade de 73,6%, especificidade de 95,7%, valor preditivo positivo de 83%, valor preditivo negativo de 92,7, área sob a curva ROC de 93,6%, prevalência estimada pelo teste de 19,6%, razão de probabilidade positiva 17,1, probabilidade pós-teste positivo de 77,8%, kappa simples de 0,946. Conclusão O estudo fornece evidências sobre a elevada acurácia, utilidade e reprodutibilidade do EPA na identificação da deterioração clínica em um cenário hospitalar pediátrico brasileiro, e considerou o instrumento aplicável no contexto da pesquisa.

Resumen Objetivo Evaluar la precisión, utilidad, reproducibilidad y aplicabilidad del Sistema de Alerta Precoz Infantil (SAPI) en la identificación del deterioro clínico en niños y adolescentes hospitalizados. Métodos Estudio de prueba diagnóstica, prospectiva, realizada entre octubre de 2018 y octubre de 2019, para medir la precisión diagnóstica del SAPI en una muestra de 240 niños y su reproducibilidad y aplicabilidad en una muestra de 60 niños. Los datos fueron procesados y analizados en MedCalc y VassarStats.net. Resultados En el punto de corte ≥ 3, el puntaje presentó una sensibilidad del 73,6 %, especificidad del 95,7 %, valor predictivo positivo del 83 %, valor predictivo negativo de 92,7, área bajo la curva ROC del 93,6 %, prevalencia estimada por la prueba del 19,6 %, razón de probabilidad positiva 17,1, probabilidad posprueba positiva del 77,8 %, kappa simple de 0,946. Conclusión El estudio presenta evidencias sobre la elevada precisión, utilidad y reproducibilidad del SAPI en la identificación del deterioro clínico en un escenario hospitalario pediátrico brasileño, por lo que el instrumento se consideró aplicable en el contexto de la investigación.

Abstract Objective To assess the Pediatric Alert Score (EPA) accuracy, usefulness, reproducibility and applicability in identifying clinical deterioration in hospitalized children and adolescents. Methods This is a prospective diagnostic test study, carried out between October/2018 and October/2019, to measure EPA diagnostic accuracy in a sample of 240 children, and its reproducibility and applicability in a sample of 60 children. Data were processed and analyzed on MedCalc and VassarStats.net. Results At cut-off point ≥ 3, the score had a sensitivity of 73.6%, specificity of 95.7%, positive predictive value of 83%, negative predictive value of 92.7, area under the ROC curve of 93.6%, estimated prevalence of 19.6%, positive probability ratio of 17.1, positive post-test probability of 77.8%, simple Kappa of 0.946. Conclusion The study provides evidence on EPA high accuracy, usefulness and reproducibility in identifying clinical deterioration in a Brazilian pediatric hospital setting, and considered the instrument applicable in the context of the research.

National Early Warning Score 2 ­ versão brasileira: validade preditiva para adultos com COVID-19* / National Early Warning Score 2 ­ versión brasileña: validez predictiva para adultos con COVID-19 / National Early Warning Score 2 ­ Brazilian version: predictive validity for adults with COVID-19

Objetivo: realizar a validade preditiva do National Early Warning Score 2 ­ versão brasileira (NEWS 2 ­ BR) nos desfechos alta e óbito em pacientes com COVID-19. Método: estudo transversal com análise de validade preditiva. Variáveis sociodemográficas, clínicas, desfechos e os componentes do escore foram coletados em prontuário eletrônico e analisados por meio da estatística descritiva e inferencial. Resultados: incluíram-se 400 pacientes, com mediana de idade de 61 anos. O escore na admissão teve mediana de 5 pontos, com amplitude de 0 a 21. Houve associação entre escores mais altos com o desfecho óbito e escores mais baixos com a alta. A validade preditiva do NEWS 2 ­ BR para o óbito foi realizada pela análise de curva ROC e o ponto de corte de maior acurácia foi de seis pontos. Conclusão: a versão brasileira do NEWS 2 é um escore válido para avaliação de pacientes com COVID-19.

Objective: perform the predictive validity of National Early Warning Score 2 ­ Brazilian version (NEWS 2 ­ BR) in discharge and death outcomes in patients with COVID-19. Method: cross-sectional study with predictive validity analysis. Social-demographical and clinical variables, outcomes and the score components were collected with an electronic health record and analyzed through descriptive and inferential statistics. Outcomes: 400 patients were included, with median age of 61 years. The score, at the moment of admission, had a median of 5 points, with a range from 0 to 21. There is an association between the highest scores and the death outcome and the lowest scores and the discharge outcome. The predictive validity of NEWS 2 ­ BRfor death was established by the analysis of the ROC curve and the most accurate cut-off point was six points. Conclusion: The Brazilian version of NEWS 2 is a valid score to assess patients with COVID-19.

Objetivo: realizar la validez predictiva del National Early Warning Score 2 ­ versión brasileña (NEWS 2 ­ BR) en los resultados alta y fallecimiento en pacientes con COVID-19. Método: estudio transversal con análisis de validez predictiva. Variables sociodemográficas, clínicas, resultados y los componentes del score fueron recolectados en prontuario electrónico y analizados por medio de la estadística descriptiva e inferencial. Resultados: se incluyeron 400 pacientes, con mediana de edad de 61 años. El score en la admisión tuvo mediana de 5 puntos, con amplitud de 0 a 21. Hubo asociación entre scores más altos con el resultado fallecimiento y scores más bajos con el alta. La validez predictiva del NEWS 2 ­ BR para el fallecimiento fue realizada por el análisis de curva ROC y el punto de corte de mayor precisión fue de seis puntos. Conclusión: la versión brasileña del NEWS 2 es un score válido para la evaluación de pacientes con COVID-19.

Performance of risk scores in patients with acute exacerbations of COPD / Desempenho de escores de risco em pacientes com exacerbações agudas da DPOC

ABSTRACT Objective: Acute exacerbations of COPD (AECOPD) are common causes of hospitalization. Various scoring systems have been proposed to classify the risk of clinical deterioration or mortality in hospitalized patients with AECOPD. We sought to investigate whether clinical deterioration and mortality scores at admission can predict adverse events occurring during hospitalization and after discharge of patients with AECOPD. Methods: We performed a retrospective study of patients admitted with AECOPD. The National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2), the NEWS288-92%, the Dyspnea, Eosinopenia, Consolidation, Acidemia, and atrial Fibrillation (DECAF) score, and the modified DECAF (mDECAF) score were calculated at admission. We assessed the sensitivity, specificity, and overall performance of the scores for the following outcomes: in-hospital mortality; need for invasive mechanical ventilation or noninvasive ventilation (NIV); long hospital stays; hospital readmissions; and future AECOPD. Results: We included 119 patients admitted with AECOPD. The median age was 75 years, and 87.9% were male. The NEWS288-92% was associated with an 8.9% reduction in the number of individuals classified as requiring close, continuous observation, without an increased risk of death in the group of individuals classified as being low-risk patients. The NEWS288-92% and NEWS2 scores were found to be adequate in predicting the need for acute NIV and longer hospital stays. The DECAF and mDECAF scores were found to be better at predicting in-hospital mortality than the NEWS2 and NEWS288-92%. Conclusions: The NEWS288-92% safely reduces the need for clinical monitoring in patients with AECOPD when compared with the NEWS2. The NEWS2 and NEWS288-92% appear to be good predictors of the length of hospital stay and need for NIV, but they do not replace the DECAF and mDECAF scores as predictors of mortality.

RESUMO Objetivo: As exacerbações agudas da DPOC (EADPOC) são causas comuns de hospitalização. Vários escores foram propostos para classificar o risco de deterioração clínica ou mortalidade em pacientes hospitalizados com EADPOC. Buscamos investigar se escores de deterioração clínica e mortalidade no momento da admissão podem prever eventos adversos durante a hospitalização e após a alta de pacientes com EADPOC. Métodos: Realizamos um estudo retrospectivo a respeito de pacientes admitidos com EADPOC. O National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2), o NEWS288-92%, o escore Dyspnea, Eosinopenia, Consolidation, Acidemia, and atrial Fibrillation (DECAF, Dispneia, Eosinopenia, Consolidação, Acidemia e Fibrilação atrial) e o escore DECAF modificado (DECAFm) foram calculados no momento da admissão. Avaliamos a sensibilidade, a especificidade e o desempenho geral dos escores quanto aos seguintes desfechos: mortalidade hospitalar; necessidade de ventilação mecânica invasiva ou ventilação não invasiva (VNI); longas internações hospitalares; readmissões hospitalares e futuras AECOPD. Resultados: Incluímos 119 pacientes admitidos com EADPOC. A mediana da idade foi de 75 anos, e 87,9% eram do sexo masculino. O NEWS288-92% associou-se a uma redução de 8,9% no número de indivíduos classificados em pacientes com necessidade de observação atenta e contínua, sem aumento do risco de morte no grupo de indivíduos classificados em pacientes de baixo risco. O NEWS288-92% e o NEWS2 foram considerados adequados para prever a necessidade de VNI aguda e internações hospitalares mais longas. O DECAF e o DECAFm foram considerados melhores em prever a mortalidade hospitalar do que o NEWS2 e o NEWS288-92%. Conclusões: Em comparação com o NEWS2, o NEWS288-92% reduz com segurança a necessidade de monitoramento clínico em pacientes com EADPOC. O NEWS2 e o NEWS288-92% aparentemente são bons preditores do tempo de internação hospitalar e da necessidade de VNI, mas não substituem o DECAF e o DECAFm como preditores de mortalidade.

Escores de alerta precoce em pacientes com suspeita ou diagnóstico de sepse: uma revisão integrativa / Early warning scores in patients with suspected or diagnosed sepsis: an integrative review / Puntuaciones de alerta temprana en pacientes con sospecha o diagnóstico de sepsis: una revisión integradora

Objetivo: analisar publicações científicas sobre a utilização de escores de alerta precoce, nos serviços terciários, como ferramentas de detecção da deterioração clínica em paciente com suspeita ou diagnóstico de sepse. Método: revisão integrativa realizada na PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science e Biblioteca Virtual em Saúde entre fevereiro e março de 2021. Incluídos artigos em inglês, espanhol e português, sem delimitação de tempo na busca. Resultados: identificou-se diferentes escores para detecção precoce da deterioração clínica em pacientes com suspeita ou diagnóstico de sepse. As ferramentas mais frequentes nos serviços terciários foram: National Early Warning Score, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment Score e Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (n=6) (50%), sendo a maioria nos Departamentos de Emergências (n=5) (41,6%). Considerações finais: National Early Warning Score foi o escore mais utilizado para pacientes com suspeita ou diagnóstico de sepse com maior acurácia para a predição de mortalidade hospitalar e admissão em Unidade de Terapia Intensiva.

Objective: to examine scientific publications on the use of early warning scores in tertiary services as tools for detecting clinical deterioration in patients with suspected or diagnosed sepsis. Method: this integrative review was conducted in PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science and the Virtual Health Library between February and March 2021. Articles in English, Spanish, and Portuguese were included with no time limits on the search. Results: different scores were found for early detection of clinical deterioration in patients with suspected or diagnosed sepsis. The most frequent tools in tertiary services were the National Early Warning Score, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment Score and Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (n = 6) (50%), most of them in Emergency Departments (n = 5) (41.6 %). Final remarks: the National Early Warning Score was the most used for patients with suspected or diagnosed sepsis and was the most accurate in predicting hospital mortality and admission to the Intensive Care Unit.

Objetivo: analizar publicaciones científicas sobre la utilización de puntuaciones de alerta temprana, en servicios terciarios, como herramientas para detección de deterioro clínico en pacientes con sospecha o diagnóstico de sepsis. Método: revisión integradora en PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science y Biblioteca Virtual en Salud entre febrero y marzo de 2021. Fueron incluidos artículos en inglés, español y portugués, sin límite de tiempo en la búsqueda. Resultados: se identificaron diferentes puntuaciones para detección temprana de deterioro clínico en pacientes con sospecha o diagnóstico de sepsis. Las herramientas frecuentes en los servicios terciarios fueron: National Early Warning Score, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment Score y Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (n=6) (50%), la mayoría en Servicios de Emergencia (n=5) (41,6 %). Consideraciones finales: National Early Warning Score fue la puntuación más utilizada para pacientes con sospecha o diagnóstico de sepsis con mejor precisión para predecir la mortalidad hospitalaria e ingreso a la Unidad de Cuidados Intensivos.

Assessment of a Comparative Bayesian-Enhanced Population-Based Decision Model for COVID-19 Critical Care Prediction in the Dominican Republic Social Security Affiliates.

INTRODUCTION: The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been a major health concern worldwide. This study aims to develop a Bayesian model to predict critical outcomes in patients with COVID-19. METHODS: Sensitivity and specificity were obtained from previous meta-analysis studies. The complex vulnerability index (IVC-COV2 index for its abbreviation in Spanish) was used to set the pretest probability. Likelihood ratios were integrated into a Fagan nomogram for posttest probabilities, and IVC-COV2 + National Early Warning Score (NEWS) values and CURB-65 scores were generated. Absolute and relative diagnostic gains (RDGs) were calculated based on pretest and posttest differences. RESULTS: The IVC-COV2 index was derived from a population of 1,055,746 individuals and was based on mortality in high-risk (71.97%), intermediate-risk (26.11%), and low-risk (1.91%) groups. The integration of models in which IVC-COV2 intermediate + NEWS ≥ 5 and CURB-65 > 2 led to a "number needed to (NNT) diagnose" that was slightly improved in the CURB-65 model (2 vs. 3). A comparison of diagnostic gains revealed that neither the positive likelihood ratio (P = 0.62) nor the negative likelihood ratio (P = 0.95) differed significantly between the IVC-COV2 NEWS model and the CURB-65 model. CONCLUSION: According to the proposed mathematical model, the combination of the IVC-COV2 intermediate score and NEWS or CURB-65 score yields superior results and a greater predictive value for the severity of illness. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first population-based/mathematical model developed for use in COVID-19 critical care decision-making.

Soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor levels are predictive of COVID-19 severity in Afro-Caribbean patients.

Aim: To investigate association between soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) plasma levels at admission and incidence of complications in COVID-19 patients. Patients & methods: We considered Afro-Caribbean patients (n = 64) admitted to the hospital between 1 February 2020 and 28 February 2021. Primary outcome was time from the hospital admission until intensive care unit care or death. Results: Primary outcome (hazard ratio, HR [95%CI]) was associated with higher CT scan severity score (3.18 [1.15-8.78], p = 0.025), National Early Warning Score (NEWS2; 1.43 [1.02-2.02], p = 0.041) and suPAR (1.28 [1.06-2.06], p = 0.041). Kaplan-Meier analysis indicated patients with suPAR level above 8.95 ng/ml had a worse outcome (7.95 [3.33-18.97], p < 0.001). Conclusion: Our study suggests that COVID-19 patients with increased baseline suPAR levels are at a high risk of complications.

Plain language summary Our aim was to investigate association between the plasma levels of soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) at admission and incidence of complications in COVID-19 patients. Increased suPAR level has been previously associated with activation of inflammation and coagulation, which important features of COVID-19. We considered Afro-Caribbean patients admitted to the hospital between 1 February 2020 and 28 February 2021. Primary outcome was time from the hospital admission until intensive care unit care or death. The use of an integrative prediction tool which combines simple clinical score (NEWS2), imaging technique (chest CT severity score) and suPAR plasma levels has potent predictive value for COVID-19 outcome.

Effect of the national early warning score on monitoring the vital signs of patients in the emergency room / Efecto del national early warning score en el monitoreo de los signos vitales de los pacientes en urgencias / Efeito do national early warning score no monitoramento dos sinais vitais de pacientes no pronto-socorro

ABSTRACT Objective: To verify the effect of using the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) system on the compliance of the vital signs monitoring interval with those recommended for patients in the emergency room. Methods: This is a quasi-experimental, before-and-after study, performed in an emergency room with 280 adult patients selected by convenience. The effect of NEWS on the compliance of the vital signs monitoring interval with those recommended by the system was analyzed by linear regression. Results: In the Pre-NEWS phase, 143 patients were analyzed (mean age ± standard deviation: 54.4 ± 20.5; male: 56.6%) and, in the Post-NEWS phase, 137 patients (mean age ± standard deviation: 55.5 ± 20.8; male: 50.4%). There was compliance of the vital signs monitoring interval with what is recommended by NEWS in 92.6% of vital signs records after adopting this instrument. This compliance was 9% (p < 0.001) higher in the Post-NEWS phase. Conclusion: The use of the NEWS system increased the compliance of the vital signs monitoring intervals with the ones recommended, but this compliance decreased when the NEWS score pointed to a shorter interval in the monitoring of vital signs.

RESUMEN Objetivo: Verificar el efecto del uso del sistema National Early Warning Score (NEWS) sobre el cumplimiento del intervalo de monitoreo de los signos vitales conforme a lo recomendado a pacientes en urgencias. Método: Estudio casi experimental, de tipo antes y después, realizado con 280 pacientes adultos seleccionados por conveniencia en un servicio de urgencias. Con el uso de la regresión lineal se analizó el efecto del NEWS sobre el cumplimiento del intervalo de monitoreo de los signos vitales conforme a lo recomendado por el sistema. Resultados: En la fase Pre-NEWS se analizaron 143 pacientes (edad media ± desviación estándar: 54,4 ± 20,5; sexo masculino: 56,6%) y, en la fase Post-NEWS, 137 pacientes (edad media ± desviación estándar: 55,5 ± 20,8; sexo masculino: 50,4%). El 92,6% de los registros de signos vitales después de la adopción de este instrumento presentaron cumplimiento del intervalo de monitoreo de los signos vitales conforme a lo recomendado por el NEWS. Este cumplimiento fue mayor en la fase Post-NEWS con un 9% (p < 0,001). Conclusion: El uso del sistema NEWS tuvo un incremento del cumplimiento de los intervalos de monitoreo de los signos vitales conforme a lo recomendado, pero este cumplimiento disminuyó cuando el puntaje NEWS apuntó a un intervalo más corto en el monitoreo de los signos vitales.

RESUMO Objetivo: Verificar o efeito do uso do sistema National Early Warning Score (NEWS) na conformidade do intervalo de monitoramento dos sinais vitais com o recomendado em pacientes no pronto-socorro. Método: Estudo quasi-experimental, do tipo antes e depois, realizado em um pronto-socorro com 280 pacientes adultos selecionados por conveniência. O efeito do NEWS na conformidade do intervalo de monitoramento dos sinais vitais com o recomendado pelo sistema foi analisado por regressão linear. Resultados: Na fase Pré-NEWS, foram analisados 143 pacientes (idade média ± desvio-padrão: 54,4 ± 20,5; sexo masculino: 56,6%) e, na fase Pós-NEWS, 137 pacientes (idade média ± desvio-padrão: 55,5 ± 20,8; sexo masculino: 50,4%). Houve conformidade do intervalo de monitoramento dos sinais vitais com o recomendo pelo NEWS em 92,6% dos registros de sinais vitais após adoção desse instrumento. Essa conformidade foi maior na fase Pós-NEWS em 9% (p < 0,001). Conclusão: O uso do sistema NEWS aumentou a conformidade dos intervalos de monitorização dos sinais vitais com o recomendado, porém essa conformidade diminuiu quando o escore NEWS apontou para intervalo menor no monitoramento dos sinais vitais.

National Early Warning Score 2 Lactate (NEWS2-L) in Predicting Early Clinical Deterioration in Patients with Dyspnoea in Prehospital Care.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the ability of the NEWS2-L (National Early Warning Score 2 Lactate) scale to predict the risk of early clinical deterioration (mortality within 48 hours) in patients with dyspnoea treated by the Medical Emergency Services compared with NEWS2 and lactate in isolation. METHODS: Prospective, multi-centre study of a cohort of 638 patients with dyspnoea treated in the ambulance and priority-transferred to a hospital emergency service in the cities of Valladolid, Salamanca, Segovia or Burgos (Spain). We collected clinical, analytical and demographic data. The main outcome measure was all-cause mortality within 48 hours. The recommendations of the Royal College of Physicians were followed to calculate NEWS2. When NEWS2 and LA prehospital values were obtained, the two values were added together to obtain the NEWS2-L. RESULTS: Mortality within 48 hours was fifty-six patients (8.8%). The NEWS2-L scale obtained an area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) for mortality within 48 hours of 0.854 (CI 95% 0.790-0.917), at seven days of 0.788 (CI 95% 0.729-0.848) and at 30 days of 0.744 (CI 95% 0.692-0.796); in all cases p<0.001, with a significant decrease between the value at 48 hours and at 30 days. CONCLUSIONS: The NEWS2-L scale was found to be significantly superior to the NEWS2 scale and similar to lactate in predicting early clinical deterioration in patients with dyspnoea. This scale can help a nurse detect these patients early, as part of their regular practice, and thus guide therapeutic efforts.

National Early Warning Score 2 Lactate (NEWS2-L) in Predicting Early Clinical Deterioration in Patients with Dyspnoea in Prehospital Care / National Early Warning Score 2 y ácido láctico (NEWS2-L) en la predicción del deterioro clínico precoz en pacientes con disnea en los cuidados prehospitalarios / National Early Warning Score 2 e ácido láctico (NEWS2-L) na predição de deterioração clínica precoce em pacientes com dispneia no atendimento pré-hospitalar

Objective. To evaluate the ability of the NEWS2-L (National Early Warning Score 2 Lactate) scale to predict the risk of early clinical deterioration (mortality within 48 hours) in patients with dyspnoea treated by the Medical Emergency Services compared with NEWS2 and lactate in isolation. Methods. Prospective, multi-centre study of a cohort of 638 patients with dyspnoea treated in the ambulance and priority-transferred to a hospital emergency service in the cities of Valladolid, Salamanca, Segovia or Burgos (Spain). We collected clinical, analytical and demographic data. The main outcome measure was all-cause mortality within 48 hours. The recommendations of the Royal College of Physicians were followed to calculate NEWS2. When NEWS2 and LA prehospital values were obtained, the two values were added together to obtain the NEWS2-L. Results. Mortality within 48 hours was fifty-six patients (8.8%). The NEWS2-L scale obtained an area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) for mortality within 48 hours of 0.854 (CI 95% 0.790­0.917), at seven days of 0.788 (CI 95% 0.729­0.848) and at 30 days of 0.744 (CI 95% 0.692­0.796); in all cases p<0.001, with a significant decrease between the value at 48 hours and at 30 days. Conclusion. The NEWS2-L scale was found to be significantly superior to the NEWS2 scale and similar to lactate in predicting early clinical deterioration in patients with dyspnoea. This scale can help a nurse detect these patients early, as part of their regular practice, and thus guide therapeutic efforts.

Objetivo. Evaluar la capacidad de la escala NEWS2-L (National Early Warning Score 2-lactate) para predecir el riesgo de deterioro clínico precoz (mortalidad hasta las 48h) en pacientes con disnea atendidos por Servicios de Emergencias Médicas, comparado con la escala NEWS2 y el ácido láctico en solitario. Métodos. Estudio prospectivo multicéntrico de cohorte de 638 pacientes con disnea atendidos en ambulancia y trasladados con alta prioridad a un servicio de urgencias hospitalarias en las ciudades de Valladolid, Salamanca, Segovia y Burgos (España). Se tomó información de variables clínicas, analíticas y demográficas, de las cuales la de resultado principal fue la mortalidad por cualquier causa hasta las 48 horas. Para el cálculo del NEWS2 se siguieron las recomendaciones del Royal College of Physicians. Una vez obtenidos los valores del NEWS2 y del AL prehospitalario se sumaron ambos valores y se obtuvo la NEWS2-L. Resultados. La mortalidad, antes de las 48, horas fue de 56 pacientes (8.8%). La escala NEWS2-L obtuvo un Área Bajo la Curva ­ Característica Operativa del Receptor (ABC-COR) para la mortalidad antes de las 48 horas de 0.854 (IC95% 0.790-0.917), a siete días de 0.788 (IC95% 0.729-0.848) y a 30 días de 0.744 (IC95% 0.692-0.796); en todos los casos p<0.001), lo que experimentó un descenso importante entre su valor a las 48 h y a los 30 días. Conclusión. La escala NEWS2-L mostró ser significativamente superior a la escala NEWS2 y similar al ácido láctico en la predicción del deterioro clínico precoz en pacientes con disnea. Esta escala es una ayuda para que la enfermera en su práctica habitual detecte a estos pacientes en forma temprana y así poder orientar los esfuerzos terapéuticos.

Objetivo. Avaliar a capacidade da escala NEWS2-L (National Early Warning Score 2-lactato) de predizer o risco de deterioração clínica precoce (mortalidade de até 48h) em pacientes com dispneia tratados em Serviços de Emergência Médica, em comparação com a escala NEWS2 e a ácido láctico em solitário. Métodos. Estudo prospectivo de coorte multicêntrico de 638 pacientes com dispneia atendidos por ambulância e transferidos com alta prioridade para um serviço de emergência hospitalar nas cidades de Valladolid, Salamanca, Segovia e Burgos (Espanha). As informações foram obtidas a partir de variáveis clínicas, analíticas e demográficas, sendo a principal variável de desfecho a mortalidade por todas as causas em até 48 horas. Para o cálculo do NEWS2, foram seguidas as recomendações do Royal College of Physicians. Uma vez obtidos os valores do NEWS2 e do AL pré-hospitalar, ambos os valores foram somados e o NEWS2-L foi obtido. Resultados. A mortalidade antes de 48 horas foi de 56 pacientes (8,8%). A escala NEWS2-L obteve uma área sob a curva - característica operacional do receptor (ABC-COR) para mortalidade antes de 48 horas de 0.854 (IC 95% 0.790-0.917), em sete dias de 0.788 (IC 95% 0.729-0.848) e aos 30 dias de 0.744 (95% CI 0.692-0.796); em todos os casos p <0,001), experimentando uma diminuição significativa entre o seu valor às 48 he aos 30 dias. Conclusão. A escala NEWS2-L mostrou ser significativamente superior à escala NEWS2 e semelhante ao ácido láctico na predição da deterioração clínica precoce em pacientes com dispneia. Essa escala é um auxílio para o enfermeiro em sua prática habitual detectar precocemente esses pacientes e, assim, ser capaz de orientar os esforços terapêuticos.

Comparação dos escores não endoscópicos para a previsão de resultados em doentes com sangramento gastrointestinal alto na emergência de um hospital de referência em cuidados terciários: um estudo de coorte prospectivo / Comparison of non-endoscopic scores for the prediction of outcomes in patients of upper gastrointestinal bleed in an emergency of a tertiary care referral hospital: a prospective cohort study

ABSTRACT BACKGROUND: Traditionally peptic ulcer disease was the most common cause of upper gastrointestinal (UGI) bleed but with the changing epidemiology; other etiologies of UGI bleed are emerging. Many scores have been described for predicting outcomes and the need for intervention in UGI bleed but prospective comparison among them is scarce. OBJECTIVE: This study was planned to determine the etiological pattern of UGI bleed and to compare Glasgow Blatchford score, Pre-Endoscopy Rockall score, AIMS65, and Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) as predictors of outcome. METHODS: In this prospective cohort study 268 patients of UGI bleed were enrolled and followed up for 8 weeks. Glasgow Blatchford score, Endoscopy Rockall score, AIMS65, and MEWS were calculated for each patient, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC-ROC) curve for each score was compared. RESULTS: The most common etiology for UGI bleed were gastroesophageal varices 150 (63.55%) followed by peptic ulcer disease 29 (12.28%) and mucosal erosive disease 27 (11.44%). Total 38 (15.26%) patients had re-bleed and 71 (28.5%) patients died. Overall, 126 (47%) patients required blood component transfusion, 25 (9.3%) patients required mechanical ventilation and 2 (0.74%) patients required surgical intervention. Glasgow Blatchford score was the best in predicting the need for transfusion (cut off - 10, AUC-ROC= 0.678). Whereas AIMS65 with a score of ≥2 was best in predicting re-bleed (AUC-ROC=0.626) and mortality (AUC-ROC=0.725). CONCLUSION: Gastrointestinal bleed was most commonly of variceal origin at our tertiary referral center in Northern India. AIMS65 was the best & simplest score with a score of ≥2 for predicting re-bleed and mortality.

RESUMO CONTEXTO: Tradicionalmente, a doença úlcera péptica era a causa mais comum de sangramento digestivo alto, mas com a mudança da epidemiologia, outras etiologias do sangramento do trato digestivo alto estão emergindo. Muitas pontuações têm sido descritas para prever resultados e a necessidade de intervenção na hemorragia gastrointestinal superior, mas a comparação prospectiva entre elas é escassa. OBJETIVO: Este estudo foi planeado para determinar o padrão etiológico de pacientes com hemorragia digestiva alta e comparar os escores de Glasgow Blatchford, o Rockall pré-endoscopia, o AIMS65 e o Early Warning modificado (MEWS) como preditores do resultado. MÉTODOS: Neste estudo prospetivo de coorte, 268 pacientes com sangramento digestivo alto foram acompanhados durante 8 semanas. Os escores Glasgow Blatchford, Rockall pré-endoscopia, AIMS65 e MEWS foram calculados para cada paciente, e a área sob a curva (AUC-ROC) para cada pontuação foi comparada. RESULTADOS: A etiologia mais comum para a hemorragia gastrointestinal alta foi varizes gastroesofágicas 150 (63,55%), seguida de úlcera péptica 29 (12,28%) e de doença erosiva de mucosa 27 (11,44%). No total, 38 (15,26%) doentes voltaram a sangrar e 71 (28,5%) doentes morreram. No total, 126 (47%) doentes necessitaram de transfusão de componentes sanguíneos, 25 (9,3%) necessitaram de ventilação mecânica e 2 (0,74%) destes doentes necessitaram de intervenção cirúrgica. O escore de Glasgow Blatchford foi o melhor na previsão da necessidade de transfusão (corte - 10, AUC-ROC =0,678). Enquanto o AIMS65 com uma pontuação de ≥2 foi o melhor na previsão de ressangramento (AUC-ROC =0,626) e mortalidade (AUC-ROC =0,725). CONCLUSÃO: O sangramento gastrointestinal alto mais comum é de origem varicosa em centro de referência terciária. O AIMS65 é o melhor escore simples, com uma pontuação de ≥2 para prever o ressangramento e a mortalidade.

Structure and roles of rapid response teams for adult care in high complexity hospitals: Scoping review / Estructura y función de los equipos de respuesta rápida para la atención de adultos en contextos hospitalarios de alta complejidad: Revisión sistemática de alcance

Objective: A significant proportion of hospitalized patients experience severe clinical deterioration that may result in adverse events, unexpected cardiac arrest, or death. Rapid response teams (RRTs) have been created to reduce the frequency and prevent the consequences of these events. The objective of this scoping review is to describe the structure, role and results of the implementation of RRTs in the hospital context, with a focus on gynecological surgery and obstetric care. Materials and methods: A search was conducted in the Medline via Pubmed, Embase via OVID, LILACS, Cochrane Library and Open Gray medical databases. The search included descriptive and analytical observational studies, experimental studies and qualitative studies that included RRTs in high complexity healthcare institutions or teaching hospitals. Two researchers selected the studies and extracted data pertaining to the structure, roles and team activation criteria, response times or tools to assess their performance. No date or publication status restrictions were applied. Studies in English, Spanish and Portuguese were included. A narrative synthesis of the findings is made. Results: Overall, 15,833 titles were retrieved, of which 15 studies met the inclusion criteria. Only one study mentions the use of RRTs in obstetric services. RRTs have a multidisciplinary structure and they must be available at least 12 hours a day. The roles of RRTs include identification of patients who are deteriorating, especially outside the intensive care setting, and of patients with underlying conditions or triggering events that increase the risk of cardiac arrest. In addition, they implement rapid multifaceted interventions that include pharmacological treatments, cardiopulmonary procedures, and they develop communication and training activities. Tools for team activation and care process assessment are available. Conclusion: The structure and roles of RRTs are clearly described, making it possible to assemble them in high complexity hospitals. Further research is required to explore risks and benefits of using RRTs to mitigate harm in patients with adverse events and to compare effectiveness and safety between code activation and RRT strategies in obstetrics services.

Objetivo: una importante proporción de pacientes hospitalizados presenta deterioro clínico severo que puede terminar en eventos adversos, paro cardíaco no esperado, o muerte; para reducir su frecuencia y prevenir sus consecuencias se han creado los equipos de respuesta rápida (ERR). El objetivo de esta revisión de alcance es describir la conformación, funcionamiento y resultados de la implementación de los ERR en el contexto hospitalario, con énfasis en los servicios de cirugía ginecológica y atención obstetricia. Materiales y métodos: se llevó a cabo una búsqueda en las bases de datos de literatura médica Medline vía Pubmed, Embase vía OVID, LILACS, Cochrane Library y Open Gray. Se incluyeron estudios observacionales descriptivos y analíticos, estudios experimentales y estudios cualitativos que incluyeron ERR en instituciones de salud de alta complejidad u hospitales universitarios. Dos investigadores seleccionaron los estudios y extrajeron los datos respecto a la conformación, funcionamiento, los criterios de activación del equipo, los tiempos de respuesta o las herramientas de evaluación de su desempeño. No se hicieron restricciones de fecha o estado de publicación. Se incluyeron estudios en inglés, español y portugués. Se hace síntesis narrativa de los hallazgos. Resultados: la búsqueda arrojó 15,833 títulos, un total de 15 estudios cumplieron con los criterios de inclusión. Solo un estudio menciona el uso de los ERR en servicios de obstetricia. La conformación de los ERR es multidisciplinaria y están disponibles al menos 12 horas cada día. Sus funciones son la identificación temprana de pacientes con deterioro de la condición, especialmente en áreas por fuera de la unidad de cuidados intensivos y de pacientes con condiciones subyacentes o eventos desencadenantes que aumentan el riesgo de paro cardíaco. Además, implementan intervenciones rápidas multifacéticas que incluyen tratamientos farmacológicos, procedimientos cardiopulmonares, y desarrollan actividades de comunicación y formación. Se dispone de herramientas para la activación y evaluación de los procesos asistenciales. Conclusión: la estructura y las funciones del ERR están claramente descritas, lo que permite que sean ensamblados en hospitales de alta complejidad. Se deben realizar más investigaciones sobre los beneficios y riesgos del uso de los ERR para mitigar los daños en pacientes con EREND y comparar la efectividad y seguridad entre la activación de códigos y las estrategias de ERR en los servicios de obstetricia.

Design and development of an early warning score for covid-19 hospitalized patients.

Pandemics pose a major challenge for public health preparedness, requiring a coordinated international response and the development of solid containment plans. Early and accurate identification of high-risk patients in the course of the current COVID-19 pandemic is vital for planning and making proper use of available resources. The purpose of this study was to identify the key variables that account for worse outcomes to create a predictive model that could be used effectively for triage. Through literature review, 44 variables that could be linked to an unfavorable course of COVID-19 disease were obtained, including clinical, laboratory, and X-ray variables. These were used for a 2-round modified Delphi processing with 14 experts to select a final list of variables with the greatest predictive power for the construction of a scoring system, leading to the creation of a new scoring system: the COVID-19 Severity Index. The analysis of the area under the curve for the COVID-19 Severity Index was 0.94 to predict the need for ICU admission in the following 24 hours against 0.80 for NEWS-2. Additionally, the digital medical record of the Hospital Italiano de Buenos Aires was electronically set for an automatic calculation and constant update of the COVID-19 Severity Index. Specifically designed for the current COVID-19 pandemic, COVID-19 Severity Index could be used as a reliable tool for strategic planning, organization, and administration of resources by easily identifying hospitalized patients with a greater need of intensive care.

La pandemia por COVID-19 planteó un desafío para el sistema salud, debido a la gran demanda de pacientes hospitalizados. La identificación temprana de pacientes hospitalizados con riesgo de evolución desfavorable es vital para asistir en forma oportuna y planificar la demanda de recursos. El propósito de este estudio fue identificar las variables predictivas de mala evolución en pacientes hospitalizados por COVID-19 y crear un modelo predictivo que pueda usarse como herramienta de triage. A través de una revisión narrativa, se obtuvieron 44 variables vinculadas a una evolución desfavorable de la enfermedad COVID-19, incluyendo variables clínicas, de laboratorio y radiográficas. Luego se utilizó un procesamiento por método Delphi modificado de 2 rondas para seleccionar una lista final de variables incluidas en el score llamado COVID-19 Severity Index. Luego se calculó el Área Bajo la Curva (AUC) del score para predecir el pase a terapia intensiva en las próximas 24 horas. El score presentó un AUC de 0,94 frente a 0,80 para NEWS-2. Finalmente se agregó el COVID-19 Severity Index a la historia clínica electrónica de un hospital universitario de alta complejidad. Se programó para que el mismo se actualice de manera automática, facilitando la planificación estratégica, organización y administración de recursos a través de la identificación temprana de pacientes hospitalizados con mayor riesgo de transferencia a la Unidad de Cuidados Intensivos.