Global health costs of ambient PM2·5 from combustion sources: a modelling study supporting air pollution control strategies.

BACKGROUND: Climate actions targeting combustion sources can generate large ancillary health benefits via associated air-quality improvements. Therefore, understanding the health costs associated with ambient fine particulate matter (PM2·5) from combustion sources can guide policy design for both air pollution and climate mitigation efforts. METHODS: In this modelling study, we estimated the health costs attributable to ambient PM2·5 from six major combustion sources across 204 countries using updated concentration-response models and an age-adjusted valuation method. We defined major combustion sources as the sum of total coal, liquid fuel and natural gas, solid biofuel, agricultural waste burning, other fires, and 50% of the anthropogenic fugitive, combustion, and industrial dust source. FINDINGS: Global long-term exposure to ambient PM2·5 from combustion sources imposed US$1·1 (95% uncertainty interval 0·8-1·5) trillion in health costs in 2019, accounting for 56% of the total health costs from all PM2·5 sources. Comparing source contributions to PM2·5 concentrations and health costs, we observed a higher share of health costs from combustion sources compared to their contribution to population-weighted PM2·5 concentration across 134 countries, accounting for more than 87% of the global population. This disparity was primarily attributed to the non-linear relationship between PM2·5 concentration and its associated health costs. Globally, phasing out fossil fuels can generate 23% higher relative health benefits compared to their share of PM2·5 reductions. Specifically, the share of health costs for total coal was 36% higher than the source's contributions to corresponding PM2·5 concentrations and the share of health costs for liquid fuel and natural gas was 12% higher. Other than fossil fuels, South Asia was expected to show 16% greater relative health benefits than the percentage reduction in PM2·5 from the abatement of solid biofuel emissions. INTERPRETATION: In most countries, targeting combustion sources might offer greater health benefits than non-combustion sources. This finding provides additional rationale for climate actions aimed at phasing out combustion sources, especially those related to fossil fuels and solid biofuel. Mitigation efforts designed according to source-specific health costs can more effectively avoid health costs than strategies that depend solely on the source contributions to overall PM2·5 concentration. FUNDING: The Health Effects Institute, the National Natural Science Foundation of China, and NASA.

Health and Economic Benefits of Complying With the World Health Organization Air Quality Guidelines for Particulate Matter in Nine Major Latin American Cities.

Objectives: This study aims to estimate the short-term preventable mortality and associated economic costs of complying with the World Health Organization (WHO) air quality guidelines (AQGs) limit values for PM10 and PM2.5 in nine major Latin American cities. Methods: We estimated city-specific PM-mortality associations using time-series regression models and calculated the attributable mortality fraction. Next, we used the value of statistical life to calculate the economic benefits of complying with the WHO AQGs limit values. Results: In most cities, PM concentrations exceeded the WHO AQGs limit values more than 90% of the days. PM10 was found to be associated with an average excess mortality of 1.88% with concentrations above WHO AQGs limit values, while for PM2.5 it was 1.05%. The associated annual economic costs varied widely, between US$ 19.5 million to 3,386.9 million for PM10, and US$ 196.3 million to 2,209.6 million for PM2.5. Conclusion: Our findings suggest that there is an urgent need for policymakers to develop interventions to achieve sustainable air quality improvements in Latin America. Complying with the WHO AQGs limit values for PM10 and PM2.5 in Latin American cities would substantially benefits for urban populations.

The role of renewable energy and total factor productivity in reducing carbon emissions: A case of top-ranked nations in the renewable energy country attractiveness index.

On the one hand, economies, particularly developing ones, need to grow. On the other hand, climate change is the most pressing issue globally, and nations should take the necessary measures. Such a complex task requires new theoretical and empirical models to capture this complexity and provide new insights. Our study uses a newly developed theoretical framework that involves renewable energy consumption (REC) and total factor productivity (TFP) alongside traditional factors of CO2 emissions. It provides policymakers with border information compared to traditional models, such as the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), being limited to income and population. Advanced panel time series methods are also employed, addressing panel data issues while producing not only pooled but also country-specific results. 20 Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index (RECAI) nations are considered in this study. The results show that REC, TFP, and exports reduce CO2 emissions with elasticities of 0.3, 0.4, and 0.3, respectively. Oppositely, income and imports increase emissions with elasticities of 0.8 and 0.3. Additionally, we show that RECAI countries are commonly affected by global and regional factors. Moreover, we find that shocks can create permanent changes in the levels of the factors but only temporary changes in their growth rates. The main policy implication of the findings is that authorities should implement measures boosting TFP and REC. These factors are driven mainly by technological progress, innovation, and efficiency gains. Thus, they can simultaneously reduce emissions while promoting long-run green economic growth, which addresses the complexity mentioned above to some extent.

Government fiscal decentralization and haze and carbon reduction: Evidence from the fiscal Province-Managing-County reform.

Government governance reform is not only a vital motivation for high economic quality but also an important factor in stimulating the government's environmental governance responsibility. The article empirically examines the fiscal Province-Managing-County (PMC) pilot reform on the synergic governance of haze and carbon reduction and its mechanism. The results show that the policy helps to realize the synergic governance of haze and carbon reduction, and the reform of fiscal Province-Managing-County promotes regional haze and carbon reduction mainly through structural effect, innovation effect, and fiscal expenditure responsibility effect. The heterogeneity analysis shows that the policy has an asymmetric effect on haze and carbon reduction under different administrative structures, economic structures and levels of government intervention. Further analysis shows a policy linkage effect between this policy and the Green Fiscal Policy. The policy has the situation of blood-sucking in the provincial capital city and leads to an increase in financial funds. The above results prove that the policy can help to realize haze and carbon reduction and provide practical ideas for the further expansion of the policy. At the same time, it provides the direction for the local government to realize the double-carbon goal.

Co-benefits and influencing factors exploration of air pollution and carbon reduction in China: Based on marginal abatement costs.

This study addresses the pressing need for cost-effective emission reduction strategies that maximize co-benefits in terms of air pollution and carbon emissions. Our research contributes to the literature by accurately measuring these co-benefits, thereby facilitating their prompt realization in different regions. We employ an input-output framework that integrates carbon emissions and air pollution, allowing us to calculate marginal abatement costs using the shadow price of undesired output. Through this approach, we quantify the co-benefits and analyze the factors influencing them at both spatiotemporal and factor levels using spatial kernel density and geographical detectors. Our findings reveal several key insights: (1) under joint emission reduction efforts, we observe average annual reduction rates of 6.46% for marginal pollution and 6.10% for carbon reduction costs. Importantly, we document an increase in co-benefits from 0.50 to 0.86, characterized by an initial fluctuation followed by a linear increase. (2) the marginal cost difference for carbon emission and pollution reduction in western China was 179.45 and 155.08 respectively, compared to 321.51 and 124.70 in the Northeast, highlighting the crucial role of regional differences in shaping co-benefit outcomes. (3) we identify a negative spatial spillover effect between provinces, which diminishes over time, leading to heterogeneous effects when local provincial co-benefits exceed a threshold of 0.9. (4) during the adjustment period, we find that the industrial structure exerts significant single and interactive effects on co-benefits. Additionally, we highlight the critical role of environmental governance investment and government intervention as drivers of co-benefits in the current era. By offering the quantification of co-benefits under the marginal abatement costs, our study provides valuable scientific insights for planning and implementing effective synergy strategies.

Local and spatial spillover effects of corporate financing costs on regional carbon emissions: evidence from Chinese listed firms.

The signing of the Paris Agreement has raised concerns about global carbon emissions, which have detrimental consequences in terms of climate change. At the same time, the financing process for listed companies has begun to incorporate investigations into these firms' carbon emissions. But the current impact of financing costs on firms' carbon emissions has not been accurately assessed. There are large differences in endowments in different regions of China, and factors flow frequently among regions. To date, no empirical evidence has emerged to show the spatial effects of financing costs on carbon emissions. This study uses the STIRPAT model and a panel lag regression model for empirical testing. The results show that increasing financing costs will increase the burden imposed by carbon reduction efforts in various regions. Although this trend has obvious spillovers to surrounding areas, the location of the enterprise bears a more negative burden of externalities. Further analysis shows that reducing the financing costs of enterprises in economically developed regions can reduce both their carbon emissions and the damage to economic growth. These research conclusions can help policymakers shape carbon reduction activities through reducing corporate financing costs on the basis of regional development differences.

COVID-19, Green Deal and recovery plan permanently change emissions and prices in EU ETS Phase IV.

The EU emissions trading system's (ETS) invalidation rule implies that shocks and overlapping policies can change cumulative carbon emissions. This paper explains these mechanisms and simulates the effect of COVID-19, the European Green Deal, and the recovery stimulus package on cumulative EU ETS emissions and allowance prices. Our results indicate that the negative demand shock of the pandemic should have a limited effect on allowance prices and rather translates into lower cumulative carbon emissions. Aligning EU ETS with the 2030 reduction target of -55% might increase allowance prices to 45-94 €/ton CO2 today and reduce cumulative carbon emissions to 14.2-18.3 GtCO2 compared to 23.5-33.1 GtCO2 under a -40% 2030 reduction target. Our results crucially depend on when the waterbed will be sealed again, which is an endogenous market outcome, driven by the EU ETS design, shocks and overlapping climate policies such as the recovery plan.

The impact of local government debt on urban environmental pollution and its mechanism: Evidence from China.

As an important financial means for governments to improve the quality of economic development, government debt greatly affects the quality of local environmental governance. Based on a theoretical mechanism analysis that uses the pollutant emissions panel data and new caliber urban investment bond data of 273 cities in China, this paper empirically tests the impact of local government debt on urban emission reduction and the mechanism that drives this impact. We find that local government debt significantly promotes urban emissions reduction, and as urban pollution becomes more aggravated, this promoting effect has a dynamic path, first strengthening and then weakening. The role of local government debt in promoting urban emission reduction is characterized by both temporal and spatial heterogeneity. A mechanistic analysis shows that local government debt can promote urban emission reduction by promoting urban environmental innovation, with green invention patents demonstrating a stronger intermediary role than green utility model patents.

Health Benefits of Strategies for Carbon Mitigation in US Transportation, 2017‒2050.

Objectives. To quantify health benefits and carbon emissions of 2 transportation scenarios that contrast optimum levels of physical activity from active travel and minimal air pollution from electric cars. Methods. We used data on burden of disease, travel, and vehicle emissions in the US population and a health impact model to assess health benefits and harms of physical activity from transportation-related walking and cycling, fine particulate pollution from car emissions, and road traffic injuries. We compared baseline travel with walking and cycling a median of 150 weekly minutes for physical activity, and with electric cars that minimized carbon pollution and fine particulates. Results. In 2050, the target year for carbon neutrality, the active travel scenario avoided 167 000 deaths and gained 2.5 million disability-adjusted life years, monetized at $1.6 trillion using the value of a statistical life. Carbon emissions were reduced by 24% from baseline. Electric cars avoided 1400 deaths and gained 16 400 disability-adjusted life years, monetized at $13 billion. Conclusions. To achieve carbon neutrality in transportation and maximize health benefits, active travel should have a prominent role along with electric vehicles in national blueprints. (Am J Public Health. 2022; 112(3):426-433. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306600).

Health benefits of decreases in on-road transportation emissions in the United States from 2008 to 2017.

Decades of air pollution regulation have yielded enormous benefits in the United States, but vehicle emissions remain a climate and public health issue. Studies have quantified the vehicle-related fine particulate matter (PM2.5)-attributable mortality but lack the combination of proper counterfactual scenarios, latest epidemiological evidence, and detailed spatial resolution; all needed to assess the benefits of recent emission reductions. We use this combination to assess PM2.5-attributable health benefits and also assess the climate benefits of on-road emission reductions between 2008 and 2017. We estimate total benefits of $270 (190 to 480) billion in 2017. Vehicle-related PM2.5-attributable deaths decreased from 27,700 in 2008 to 19,800 in 2017; however, had per-mile emission factors remained at 2008 levels, 48,200 deaths would have occurred in 2017. The 74% increase from 27,700 to 48,200 PM2.5-attributable deaths with the same emission factors is due to lower baseline PM2.5 concentrations (+26%), more vehicle miles and fleet composition changes (+22%), higher baseline mortality (+13%), and interactions among these (+12%). Climate benefits were small (3 to 19% of the total). The percent reductions in emissions and PM2.5-attributable deaths were similar despite an opportunity to achieve disproportionately large health benefits by reducing high-impact emissions of passenger light-duty vehicles in urban areas. Increasingly large vehicles and an aging population, increasing mortality, suggest large health benefits in urban areas require more stringent policies. Local policies can be effective because high-impact primary PM2.5 and NH3 emissions disperse little outside metropolitan areas. Complementary national-level policies for NOx are merited because of its substantial impacts-with little spatial variability-and dispersion across states and metropolitan areas.

[Economic evaluation on the health hazards of residents caused by PM_(2.5) in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei from 2013 to 2018].

OBJECTIVE: To learn the health hazards and health economic losses caused by PM_(2.5) pollution in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei to the resident population. METHODS: Fine particular matter concentration and the basic demographic data of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei from 2013 to 2018 were collected. Circulatory system disease hospitalization and other indexes were chosen as the end point of health effects, appropriate exposure-response relationship were selected, and the economic loss of health effect caused by PM_(2.5) was assessed by the combination of the cost of illness approach and human capital method. RESULTS: From 2013 to 2018, the economic loss of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei caused by fine particular matter pollution showed a decreasing trend year by year. The health economic losses of Beijing from 2013 to 2018 were 3.815, 4.177, 4.090, 3.818, 2.567 and 2.031 billion yuan; The health economic losses of Tianjin were 3.046, 2.625, 1.882, 1.914, 1.448 and 1.000 billion yuan; The health economic losses of Hebei were 13.719, 11.850, 7.423, 7.216, 6.499 and 4.124 billion yuan, Hebei Province had the highest economic loss in 2013, accounting for 13.719 billion yuan, accounting for 0.51% of GDP in that year. Tianjin had the lowest economic loss in 2018, accounting for 10.0 billion yuan, accounting for 0.05% of GDP in that year. CONCLUSION: The health loss caused by PM_(2.5) pollution in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei region shows a decreasing trend year by year, but the number is still very considerable, and the monitoring and control of PM_(2.5) pollution need to be further strengthened.

The effects on mortality and the associated financial costs of wood heater pollution in a regional Australian city.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the annual burden of mortality and the associated health costs attributable to air pollution from wood heaters in Armidale. DESIGN: Health impact assessment (excess annual mortality and financial costs) based upon atmospheric PM2.5 measurements. SETTING: Armidale, a regional Australian city (population, 24 504) with high levels of air pollution in winter caused by domestic wood heaters, 1 May 2018 - 30 April 2019. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Estimated population exposure to PM2.5 from wood heaters; estimated numbers of premature deaths and years of life lost. RESULTS: Fourteen premature deaths (95% CI, 12-17 deaths) per year, corresponding to 210 (95% CI, 172-249) years of life lost, are attributable to long term exposure to wood heater PM2.5 pollution in Armidale. The estimated financial cost is $32.8 million (95% CI, $27.0-38.5 million), or $10 930 (95% CI, $9004-12 822) per wood heater per year. CONCLUSIONS: The substantial mortality and financial cost attributable to wood heating in Armidale indicates that effective policies are needed to reduce wood heater pollution, including public education about the effects of wood smoke on health, subsidies that encourage residents to switch to less polluting home heating (perhaps as part of an economic recovery package), assistance for those affected by wood smoke from other people, and regulations that reduce wood heater use (eg, by not permitting new wood heaters and requiring existing units to be removed when houses are sold).

Impact of air pollution on human activities: Evidence from nine million mobile phone users.

To measure the effects of air pollution on human activities, this study applies statistical/econometric modeling to hourly data of 9 million mobile phone users from six cities in China's Zhejiang Province from December 18 to 21, 2013. Under a change in air quality from "Good" (Air Quality Index, or AQI, between 51 and 100) to "Heavily Polluted" (AQI between 201 to 300), the following effects are demonstrated. (i) Consistent with the literature, for every one million people, 1, 482 fewer individuals are observed at parks, 95% confidence interval or CI (-2, 229, -735), which represents a 15% decrease. (ii) The number of individuals at shopping malls has no statistically significant change. (iii) Home is the most important location under worsening air quality, and for every one million people, 63, 088 more individuals are observed at home, 95% CI (47, 815, 78, 361), which represents a 19% increase. (iv) Individuals are on average 633 meters closer to their home, 95% CI (529, 737); as a benchmark, the median distance from home ranges from 300 to 1900 meters across the cities in our sample. These effects are not due to weather or government regulations. We also provided provisional evidence that individuals engage in inter-temporal activity substitutions within a day, which leads to mitigated (but not nullified) effects of air pollution on daily activities.

Effect of PM2.5 pollution on perinatal mortality in China.

Using ArcGIS to analyze satellite derived PM2.5 estimates, this paper obtains the average concentration and maximum concentration of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in China's 31 provinces from 2002 to 2015. We adopt fixed effects model and spatial Durbin model to investigate the association between PM2.5 and perinatal mortality rates. The results indicate that PM2.5 has a significantly positive association with perinatal mortality rates. A 1% increase of log-transformed average concentration and maximum concentrations of PM2.5 is associated with 1.76‰ and 2.31‰ increase of perinatal mortality rates, respectively. In spatial econometrics analysis, we find PM2.5 has significant spatial autocorrelation characteristics. The concentrations of log-transformed average and maximum PM2.5 increase 1% is associated with a 2.49% increase in a 2.49‰ and 2.19‰ increase of perinatal mortality rates, respectively. The potential mechanism is that air pollution has an impact on infant weight to impact perinatal mortality rates.

Health and economic impact of air pollution in the states of India: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

BACKGROUND: The association of air pollution with multiple adverse health outcomes is becoming well established, but its negative economic impact is less well appreciated. It is important to elucidate this impact for the states of India. METHODS: We estimated exposure to ambient particulate matter pollution, household air pollution, and ambient ozone pollution, and their attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years in every state of India as part of the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019. We estimated the economic impact of air pollution as the cost of lost output due to premature deaths and morbidity attributable to air pollution for every state of India, using the cost-of-illness method. FINDINGS: 1·67 million (95% uncertainty interval 1·42-1·92) deaths were attributable to air pollution in India in 2019, accounting for 17·8% (15·8-19·5) of the total deaths in the country. The majority of these deaths were from ambient particulate matter pollution (0·98 million [0·77-1·19]) and household air pollution (0·61 million [0·39-0·86]). The death rate due to household air pollution decreased by 64·2% (52·2-74·2) from 1990 to 2019, while that due to ambient particulate matter pollution increased by 115·3% (28·3-344·4) and that due to ambient ozone pollution increased by 139·2% (96·5-195·8). Lost output from premature deaths and morbidity attributable to air pollution accounted for economic losses of US$28·8 billion (21·4-37·4) and $8·0 billion (5·9-10·3), respectively, in India in 2019. This total loss of $36·8 billion (27·4-47·7) was 1·36% of India's gross domestic product (GDP). The economic loss as a proportion of the state GDP varied 3·2 times between the states, ranging from 0·67% (0·47-0·91) to 2·15% (1·60-2·77), and was highest in the low per-capita GDP states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh. Delhi had the highest per-capita economic loss due to air pollution, followed by Haryana in 2019, with 5·4 times variation across all states. INTERPRETATION: The high burden of death and disease due to air pollution and its associated substantial adverse economic impact from loss of output could impede India's aspiration to be a $5 trillion economy by 2024. Successful reduction of air pollution in India through state-specific strategies would lead to substantial benefits for both the health of the population and the economy. FUNDING: UN Environment Programme; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; and Indian Council of Medical Research, Department of Health Research, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India.

Integrated Impact Assessment of Active Travel: Expanding the Scope of the Health Economic Assessment Tool (HEAT) for Walking and Cycling.

The World Health Organization's Health Economic Assessment Tool (HEAT) for walking and cycling is a user-friendly web-based tool to assess the health impacts of active travel. HEAT, developed over 10 years ago, has been used by researchers, planners and policymakers alike in appraisals of walking and cycling policies at both national and more local scales. HEAT has undergone regular upgrades adopting the latest scientific evidence. This article presents the most recent upgrades of the tool. The health impacts of walking and/or cycling in a specified population are quantified in terms of premature deaths avoided (or caused). In addition to the calculation of benefits derived from physical activity, HEAT was recently expanded to include assessments of the burden associated with air pollution exposure and crash risks while walking or cycling. Further, the impacts on carbon emissions from mode shifts to active travel modes can now be assessed. The monetization of impacts using Value of Statistical Life and Social Costs of Carbon now uses country-specific values. As active travel inherently results in often substantial health benefits as well as not always negligible risks, assessments of active travel behavior or policies are incomplete without considering health implications. The recent developments of HEAT make it easier than ever to obtain ballpark estimates of health impacts and carbon emissions related to walking and cycling.

Continuous exposure to ambient air pollution and chronic diseases: prevalence, burden, and economic costs.

Studies that assess the connection between the prevalence of chronic diseases and continuous exposure to air pollution are scarce in developing countries, mainly due to data limitations. Largely overcoming data limitations, this study aimed to investigate the association between the likelihood of reporting a set of chronic diseases (diabetes, cancer, stroke and myocardial infarction, asthma, and hypertension) and continuous exposure to carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), ozone (O3), and coarse particulate matter (PM10). Using the estimated associations, the disease burden and economic costs of continuous exposure to air pollutants were also approximated. A 2011 Health Equity Assessment and Response Tool survey from Tehran, Iran, was used in the main analyses. A sample of 67,049 individuals who had not changed their place of residence for at least 2 years before the survey and reported all relevant socioeconomic information was selected. The individuals were assigned with the average monthly air pollutant levels of the nearest of 16 air quality monitors during the 2 years leading to the survey. Both single- and multi-pollutant analyses were conducted. The country's annual household surveys from 2002 to 2011 were used to calculate the associated economic losses. The single-pollutant analysis showed that a one-unit increase in monthly CO (ppm), NO2 (ppb), O3 (ppb), and PM10 (µg/m3) during the 2 years was associated with 751 [confidence interval (CI): 512-990], 18 (CI: 12-24), 46 (CI: -27-120), and 24 (CI: 13-35) more reported chronic diseases in 100,000, respectively. The disease-specific analyses showed that a unit change in average monthly CO was associated with 329, 321, 232, and 129 more reported cases of diabetes, hypertension, stroke and myocardial infarction, and asthma in 100,000, respectively. The measured associations were greater in samples with older individuals. Also, a unit change in average monthly O3 was associated with 21 (in 100,000) more reported cases of asthma. The multi-pollutant analyses confirmed the results from single-pollutant analyses. The supplementary analyses showed that a one-unit decrease in monthly CO level could have been associated with about 208 (CI: 147-275) years of life gained or 15.195 (CI: 10.296-20.094) thousand US dollars (USD) in life-time labor market income gained per 100,000 30-plus-year-old Tehranis.

Air pollution control strategies directly limiting national health damages in the US.

Exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) from fuel combustion significantly contributes to global and US mortality. Traditional control strategies typically reduce emissions for specific air pollutants and sectors to maintain pollutant concentrations below standards. Here we directly set national PM2.5 mortality cost reduction targets within a global human-earth system model with US state-level energy systems, in scenarios to 2050, to identify endogenously the control actions, sectors, and locations that most cost-effectively reduce PM2.5 mortality. We show that substantial health benefits can be cost-effectively achieved by electrifying sources with high primary PM2.5 emission intensities, including industrial coal, building biomass, and industrial liquids. More stringent PM2.5 reduction targets expedite the phaseout of high emission intensity sources, leading to larger declines in major pollutant emissions, but very limited co-benefits in reducing CO2 emissions. Control strategies limiting health damages achieve the greatest emission reductions in the East North Central and Middle Atlantic states.