Cholera outbreak trends in Nigeria: policy recommendations and innovative approaches to prevention and treatment.

Cholera, an acute diarrheal infection from ingesting contaminated food or water, remains a significant public health threat in Nigeria, especially in areas lacking safe water and sanitation. Characterized by severe watery diarrhea, cholera can cause dehydration and death if untreated. Historical data shows cholera's endemic nature in Nigeria, with notable outbreaks since 1970, including major ones in 1991, 1999, 2010, 2018, and 2024. According to a descriptive study in Nigeria, the 1991 outbreak reported 59,478 cases and 7,654 deaths, with a Case Fatality Ratio (CFR) of 12.9%. In 2010, there were 41,787 cases and 1,716 deaths, with a CFR of 4.1% across 18 states, mainly affecting impoverished communities and children. The 2018 outbreak had 43,996 cases and 836 deaths, with a CFR of 2% in 20 states, a 240% increase from 2017. By mid-2024, there were 1,579 suspected cases and 54 deaths (CFR 3.4%) in 32 states. This paper evaluates cholera trends in Nigeria and proposes effective preventive and treatment strategies. Policy recommendations highlight the need for improved WASH infrastructure, enhanced surveillance, and rapid response mechanisms. Innovative approaches like case-area targeted interventions (CATI) and increased public health education are crucial for mitigating future outbreaks and achieving the goal of reducing cholera deaths by 90% by 2030.

Genomic evolution and rearrangement of CTX-Φ prophage elements in Vibrio cholerae during the 2018-2024 cholera outbreaks in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo.

ABSTRACTBetween 2018 and 2024, we conducted systematic whole-genome sequencing and phylogenomic analysis on 263 V. cholerae O1 isolates from cholera patients across four provinces in the Democratic Republic of Congo (North-Kivu, South-Kivu, Tanganyika, and Kasai Oriental). These isolates were classified into the AFR10d and AFR10e sublineages of AFR10 lineage, originating from the third wave of the seventh El Tor cholera pandemic (7PET). Compared to the strains analysed between 2014 and 2017, both sublineages had few genetic changes in the core genome but recent isolates (2022-2024) had significant CTX prophage rearrangement. AFR10e spread across all four provinces, while AFR10d appeared to be extinct by the end of 2020. Since 2022, most V. cholerae O1 isolates exhibited significant CTX prophage rearrangements, including a tandem repeat of an environmental satellite phage RS1 downstream the ctxB toxin gene of the CTX-Φ-3 prophage on the large chromosome, as well as two or more arrayed copies of an environmental pre-CTX-Φ prophage precursor on the small chromosome. We used Illumina data for mapping and coverage estimation to identify isolates with unique CTX-Φ genomic features. Gene localization was then determined on MinION-derived assemblies, revealing an organization similar to that of non-O1 V. cholerae isolates found in Asia (O139 VC1374, and environmental O4 VCE232), but never described in V. cholerae O1 El Tor from the third wave. In conclusion, while the core genome of AFR10d and AFR10e showed minimal changes, significant alterations in the CTX-Φ and pre-CTX-Φ prophage content and organization were identified in AFR10e from 2022 onwards.

The activity of the quorum sensing regulator HapR is modulated by the bacterial extracellular vesicle (BEV)-associated protein ObfA of Vibrio cholerae.

Vibrio cholerae, a facultative human pathogen and causative agent of the severe diarrheal disease cholera, transits between the human intestinal tract and aquatic reservoirs. Like other bacterial species, V. cholerae continuously releases bacterial extracellular vesicles (BEVs) from its surface, which have been recently characterised for their role during in vivo colonisation. However, between epidemic outbreaks, V. cholerae persists in the biofilm mode for extended periods in aquatic reservoirs, which enhances environmental fitness and host transition. In this study, we investigated the effect of V. cholerae BEVs on biofilm formation, a critical feature for ex vivo survival. In contrast to BEVs from planktonic cultures, our results show that physiological concentrations of BEVs from dynamic biofilm cultures facilitate V. cholerae biofilm formation, which could be linked to a proteinaceous factor. Comparative proteomic analyses of planktonic- and biofilm-derived BEVs identified a previously uncharacterised outer membrane protein as an abundant component of dynamic biofilm-derived BEVs, which was found to be responsible for the BEV-dependent enhancement of biofilm production. Consequently, this protein was named outer membrane-associated biofilm facilitating protein A (ObfA). Comprehensive molecular studies unravelled ObfA as a negative modulator of HapR activity. HapR is a key transcriptional regulator of the V. cholerae quorum sensing (QS) cascade acting as a potent repressor of biofilm formation and virulence. Consistently, obfA mutants not only exhibited reduced biofilm production but also reduced colonisation fitness. Surprisingly, our results demonstrate that ObfA does not affect HapR through the canonical QS system but via the Csr-cascade altering the expression of the small regulatory RNAs CsrC and CsrD. In summary, this study elucidates a novel intraspecies BEV-based communication in V. cholerae that influences biofilm formation and colonisation fitness via a new regulatory pathway involving HapR, Csr-cascade and the BEV-associated protein ObfA.

Genomic analysis of Vibrio cholerae O1 isolates from cholera cases, Europe, 2022.

BackgroundThe number of cholera cases reported to the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2022 was more than double that of 2021. Nine countries of the WHO European Region reported 51 cases of cholera in 2022 vs five reported cases in 2021.AimWe aimed to confirm that the Vibrio cholerae O1 isolates reported by WHO European Region countries in 2022 belonged to the seventh pandemic El Tor lineage (7PET). We also studied their virulence, antimicrobial resistance (AMR) determinants and phylogenetic relationships.MethodsWe used microbial genomics to study the 49 V. cholerae O1 isolates recovered from the 51 European cases. We also used > 1,450 publicly available 7PET genomes to provide a global phylogenetic context for these 49 isolates.ResultsAll 46 good-quality genomes obtained belonged to the 7PET lineage. All but two isolates belonged to genomic Wave 3 and were grouped within three sub-lineages, one of which, Pre-AFR15, predominated (34/44). This sub-lineage, corresponding to isolates from several countries in Southern Asia, the Middle East and Eastern or Southern Africa, was probably a major contributor to the global upsurge of cholera cases in 2022. No unusual AMR profiles were inferred from analysis of the AMR gene content of the 46 genomes.ConclusionReference laboratories in high-income countries should use whole genome sequencing to assign V. cholerae O1 isolates formally to the 7PET or non-epidemic lineages. Periodic collaborative genomic studies based on isolates from travellers can provide useful information on the circulating strains and their evolution, particularly as concerns AMR.

Analysis of Cholera Risk in India: Insights from 2017-18 Serosurvey Data Integrated with Epidemiologic data and Societal Determinants from 2015-2019.

BACKGROUND: Indian subcontinent being an important region in the fight to eliminate cholera needs better cholera surveillance. Current methods miss most infections, skewing disease burden estimates. Triangulating serosurvey data, clinical cases, and risk factors could reveal India's true cholera risk. METHODS: We synthesized data from a nationally representative serosurvey, outbreak reports and risk factors like water, sanitation and the Multidimensional Poverty Index, to create a composite vulnerability index for assessing state-wise cholera risk in India. We tested 7,882 stored sera samples collected during 2017-18 from individuals aged 9-45 years, for vibriocidal antibodies to Vibrio cholerae O1 using a cut-off titre ≥320 defining as elevated titre. We also extracted data from the 2015-19 Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme and published cholera reports. RESULTS: Overall, 11.7% (CI: 10.4-13.3%) of the sampled population had an elevated titre of cholera vibriocidal antibodies (≥320). The Southern region experienced the highest incidence (16.8%, CI: 12.1-22.8), followed by the West (13.2%, CI: 10.0-17.3) and North (10.7%, CI: 9.3-12.3). Proportion of samples with an elevated vibriocidal titre (≥320) was significantly higher among individuals aged 18-45 years (13.0% CI: 11.2-15.1) compared to children 9-17 years (8.6%, CI 7.3-10.0, p<0.05); we found no differences between sex or urbanicity. Between 2015-2019, the Integrated Disease Surveillance Program (IDSP) reported 29,400 cases of cholera across the country. Using the composite vulnerability index, we found Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, and West Bengal were the most vulnerable states in India in terms of risk of cholera. CONCLUSION: The present study showed that cholera infection is present in all five regions across India. The states with high cholera vulnerability could be prioritized for targeted prevention interventions.

Vibrio cholerae serogroup O5 was responsible for the outbreak of gastroenteritis in Czechoslovakia in 1965.

Several authors have attributed the explosive outbreak of gastroenteritis that occurred in Czechoslovakia in 1965 to a toxigenic strain of Vibrio cholerae serogroup O37 based on unverified metadata associated with three particular strains from the American Type Culture Collection. Here, by sequencing the original strain preserved at the Czech National Collection of Type Cultures since 1966, we show that the strain responsible for this outbreak was actually a V. cholerae O5 that lacks the genes encoding the cholera toxin, the toxin-coregulated pilus protein and Vibrio pathogenicity islands present in V. cholerae O37 strains.

Core and accessory genomic traits of Vibrio cholerae O1 drive lineage transmission and disease severity.

In Bangladesh, Vibrio cholerae lineages are undergoing genomic evolution, with increased virulence and spreading ability. However, our understanding of the genomic determinants influencing lineage transmission and disease severity remains incomplete. Here, we developed a computational framework using machine-learning, genome scale metabolic modelling (GSSM) and 3D structural analysis, to identify V. cholerae genomic traits linked to lineage transmission and disease severity. We analysed in-patients isolates from six Bangladeshi regions (2015-2021), and uncovered accessory genes and core SNPs unique to the most recent dominant lineage, with virulence, motility and bacteriophage resistance functions. We also found a strong correlation between V. cholerae genomic traits and disease severity, with some traits overlapping those driving lineage transmission. GSMM and 3D structure analysis unveiled a complex interplay between transcription regulation, protein interaction and stability, and metabolic networks, associated to lifestyle adaptation, intestinal colonization, acid tolerance and symptom severity. Our findings support advancing therapeutics and targeted interventions to mitigate cholera spread.

Vibrio cholerae pathogenicity island 2 encodes two distinct types of restriction systems.

In response to predation by bacteriophages and invasion by other mobile genetic elements such as plasmids, bacteria have evolved specialized defense systems that are often clustered together on genomic islands. The O1 El Tor strains of Vibrio cholerae responsible for the ongoing seventh cholera pandemic (7PET) contain a characteristic set of genomic islands involved in host colonization and disease, many of which contain defense systems. Notably, Vibrio pathogenicity island 2 contains several characterized defense systems as well as a putative type I restriction-modification (T1RM) system, which, interestingly, is interrupted by two genes of unknown function. Here, we demonstrate that the T1RM system is active, methylates the host genomes of a representative set of 7PET strains, and identify a specific recognition sequence that targets non-methylated plasmids for restriction. We go on to show that the two genes embedded within the T1RM system encode a novel two-protein modification-dependent restriction system related to the GmrSD family of type IV restriction enzymes. Indeed, we show that this system has potent anti-phage activity against diverse members of the Tevenvirinae, a subfamily of bacteriophages with hypermodified genomes. Taken together, these results expand our understanding of how this highly conserved genomic island contributes to the defense of pandemic V. cholerae against foreign DNA. IMPORTANCE: Defense systems are immunity systems that allow bacteria to counter the threat posed by bacteriophages and other mobile genetic elements. Although these systems are numerous and highly diverse, the most common types are restriction enzymes that can specifically recognize and degrade non-self DNA. Here, we show that the Vibrio pathogenicity island 2, present in the pathogen Vibrio cholerae, encodes two types of restriction systems that use distinct mechanisms to sense non-self DNA. The first system is a classical Type I restriction-modification system, and the second is a novel modification-dependent type IV restriction system that recognizes hypermodified cytosines. Interestingly, these systems are embedded within each other, suggesting that they are complementary to each other by targeting both modified and non-modified phages.

Spatial-temporal analysis of climate and socioeconomic conditions on cholera incidence in Mozambique from 2000 to 2018: an ecological longitudinal retrospective study.

OBJECTIVES: This study aims to assess both socioeconomic and climatic factors of cholera morbidity in Mozambique considering both spatial and temporal dimensions. DESIGN: An ecological longitudinal retrospective study using monthly provincial cholera cases from Mozambican Ministry of Health between 2000 and 2018. The cholera cases were linked to socioeconomic data from Mozambique Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in the period 2000-2018 and climatic data; relative humidity (RH), mean temperature, precipitation and Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). A negative binomial regression model in a Bayesian framework was used to model cholera incidence while adjusting for the spatiotemporal covariance, lagged effect of environmental factors and the socioeconomic indicators. SETTING: Eleven provinces in Mozambique. RESULTS: Over the 19-year period, a total of 153 941 cholera cases were notified to the surveillance system in Mozambique. Risk of cholera increased with higher monthly mean temperatures above 24°C in comparison to the reference mean temperature of 23°C. At mean temperature of 19°C, cholera risk was higher at a lag of 5-6 months. At a shorter lag of 1 month, precipitation of 223.3 mm resulted in an 57% increase in cholera risk (relative risk, RR 1.57 (95% CI 1.06 to 2.31)). Cholera risk was greatest at 3 lag months with monthly NDVI of 0.137 (RR 1.220 (95% CI 1.042 to 1.430)), compared with the reference value of 0.2. At an RH of 54%, cholera RR was increased by 62% (RR 1.620 (95% CI 1.124 to 2.342)) at a lag of 4 months. We found that ownership of radio RR 0.29, (95% CI 0.109 to 0.776) and mobile phones RR 0.262 (95% CI 0.097 to 0.711) were significantly associated with low cholera risk. CONCLUSION: The derived lagged patterns can provide appropriate lead times in a climate-driven cholera early warning system that could contribute to the prevention and management of outbreaks.

A protracted cholera outbreak in Nairobi City County accentuated by mass gathering events, Kenya, 2017.

Cholera continues to cause many outbreaks in low and middle-income countries due to inadequate water, sanitation, and hygiene services. We describe a protracted cholera outbreak in Nairobi City County, Kenya in 2017. We reviewed the cholera outbreak line lists from Nairobi City County in 2017 to determine its extent and factors associated with death. A suspected case of cholera was any person aged >2 years old who had acute watery diarrhea, nausea, or vomiting, whereas a confirmed case was where Vibrio cholerae was isolated from the stool specimen. We summarized cases using means for continuous variables and proportions for categorical variables. Associations between admission status, sex, age, residence, time to care seeking, and outbreak settings; and cholera associated deaths were assessed using odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (CI). Of the 2,737 cholera cases reported, we analyzed 2,347 (85.7%) cases including 1,364 (58.1%) outpatients, 1,724 (73.5%) not associated with mass gathering events, 1,356 (57.8%) male and 2,202 (93.8%) aged ≥5 years, and 35 deaths (case fatality rate: 1.5%). Cases were reported from all the Sub Counties of Nairobi City County with an overall county attack rate of 50 per 100,000 people. Vibrio cholerae Ogawa serotype was isolated from 78 (34.8%) of the 224 specimens tested and all isolates were sensitive to tetracycline and levofloxacin but resistant to amikacin. The odds of cholera-related deaths was lower among outpatient cases (aOR: 0.35; [95% CI: 0.17-0.72]), age ≥5 years old (aOR: 0.21 [95% CI: 0.09-0.55]), and mass gathering events (aOR: 0.26 [95% CI: 0.07-0.91]) while threefold higher odds among male (aOR: 3.04 [95% CI: 1.30-7.13]). Nairobi City County experienced a protracted and widespread cholera outbreak with a high case fatality rate in 2017.

Attitude towards cholera vaccination and its related factors in Jordan amid the 2022 Middle East outbreak.

BACKGROUND: An outbreak of cholera was reported in the Middle East by the second half of 2022. Raising public awareness and vaccination against cholera represent critical factors in the preventive efforts. The current study aimed to assess the knowledge of cholera and attitude towards its vaccination among a sample of the general public residing in Jordan. METHODS: An online self-administered questionnaire was distributed to the residents in Jordan using a snowball convenience-based sampling approach. The questionnaire based on previously published studies included items to evaluate sociodemographic variables, knowledge about cholera symptoms, transmission, and prevention and the willingness to accept cholera vaccination. Additionally, four items based on the validated 5 C scale in Arabic were included to assess the psychological factors influencing attitude to cholera vaccination. RESULTS: The final study sample comprised 1339 respondents, of whom 1216 (90.8%) heard of cholera before the study. Among those who heard of cholera, and on a scale from 0 to 20, the overall mean cholera Knowledge score (K-score) was 12.9 ± 3.8. In multivariate analysis, being over 30 years old and occupation as healthcare workers or students in healthcare-related colleges were significantly associated with a higher K-score compared to younger individuals and students in non-healthcare-related colleges. Overall, the acceptance of cholera vaccination if cases are recorded in Jordan, and if the vaccine is safe, effective, and provided freely was reported among 842 participants (69.2%), while 253 participants were hesitant (20.8%) and 121 participants were resistant (10.0%). In linear regression, the significant predictors of cholera vaccine acceptance were solely the three psychological factors namely high confidence, low constraints, and high collective responsibility. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, the identified gaps in cholera knowledge emphasize the need to enhance educational initiatives. Although cholera vaccine acceptance was relatively high, a significant minority of the respondents exhibited vaccination hesitancy or resistance. The evident correlation between the psychological determinants and attitudes toward cholera vaccination emphasizes the need to consider these factors upon designing public health campaigns aimed at cholera prevention. The insights of the current study highlight the importance of addressing both knowledge gaps and psychological barriers to optimize cholera control strategies.

An unusual two-strain cholera outbreak in Lebanon, 2022-2023: a genomic epidemiology study.

Cholera is a life-threatening gastrointestinal infection caused by a toxigenic bacterium, Vibrio cholerae. After a lull of almost 30 years, a first case of cholera was detected in Lebanon in October 2022. The outbreak lasted three months, with 8007 suspected cases (671 laboratory-confirmed) and 23 deaths. In this study, we use phenotypic methods and microbial genomics to study 34 clinical and environmental Vibrio cholerae isolates collected throughout this outbreak. All isolates are identified as V. cholerae O1, serotype Ogawa strains from wave 3 of the seventh pandemic El Tor (7PET) lineage. Phylogenomic analysis unexpectedly reveals the presence of two different strains of the seventh pandemic El Tor (7PET) lineage. The dominant strain has a narrow antibiotic resistance profile and is phylogenetically related to South Asian V. cholerae isolates and derived African isolates from the AFR15 sublineage. The second strain is geographically restricted and extensively drug-resistant. It belongs to the AFR13 sublineage and clusters with V. cholerae isolates collected in Yemen. In conclusion, the 2022-2023 Lebanese cholera outbreak is caused by the simultaneous introduction of two different 7PET strains. Genomic surveillance with cross-border collaboration is therefore crucial for the identification of new introductions and routes of circulation of cholera, improving our understanding of cholera epidemiology.

Strain variation and anomalous climate synergistically influence cholera pandemics.

BACKGROUND: Explanations for the genesis and propagation of cholera pandemics since 1817 have remained elusive. Evolutionary pathogen change is presumed to have been a dominant factor behind the 7th "El Tor" pandemic, but little is known to support this hypothesis for preceding pandemics. The role of anomalous climate in facilitating strain replacements has never been assessed. The question is of relevance to guide the understanding of infectious disease emergence today and in the context of climate change. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We investigate the roles of climate and putative strain variation for the 6th cholera pandemic (1899-1923) using newly assembled historical records for climate variables and cholera deaths in provinces of former British India. We compare this historical pandemic with the 7th (El Tor) one and with the temporary emergence of the O139 strain in Bangladesh and globally. With statistical methods for nonlinear time series analysis, we examine the regional synchrony of outbreaks and associations of the disease with regional temperature and rainfall, and with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). To establish future expectations and evaluate climate anomalies accompanying historical strain replacements, climate projections are generated with multi-model climate simulations for different 50-year periods. The 6th cholera pandemic featured the striking synchronisation of cholera outbreaks over Bengal during the El Niño event of 1904-07, following the invasion of the Bombay Presidency with a delay of a few years. Accompanying anomalous weather conditions are similar to those related to ENSO during strain replacements and pandemic expansions into Africa and South America in the late 20th century. Rainfall anomalies of 1904-05 at the beginning of the large cholera anomaly fall in the 99th percentile of simulated changes for the regional climate. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Evolutionary pathogen change can act synergistically with climatic conditions in the emergence and propagation of cholera strains. Increased climate variability and extremes under global warming provide windows of opportunity for emerging pathogens.