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1.
Sci Rep ; 14(1): 15806, 2024 Jul 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38982282

ABSTRACT

To evaluate the clinical significance of PLT, MPV, and PDW in monitoring malaria treatment efficacy and predicting disease progression. A total of 31 patients with imported malaria were selected as the observation group, while 31 non-malaria patients with fever were selected as controls. The observation group was subdivided into a complication group and a non-complication group according to the occurrence of complications during treatment. Additionally, on the 1st day (within 24 h), the 3rd day, and the 5th day following admission, a comprehensive blood routine examination, Plasmodium microscopic examination, and colloidal gold assay were conducted. The blood routine examination results were compared before and after treatment among patients in the observation group and the control group. Moreover, the study involved dynamic monitoring and analysis of the levels and variations in PLT, MPV, and PDW within both the complication group and the non-complication group. The Plasmodium density was negatively correlated with PLT before treatment. There were significant differences were observed in PLT, MPV, and PDW (P < 0.05) within the observation group before and after treatment. Notably, there were no significant alterations in red blood cell (RBC), hemoglobin (Hb), and white blood cell (WBC) counts (P > 0.05) within the observation group before and after treatment. The PLT, MPV, and PDW levels in the complication group and the non-complication group exhibited an upward trend after treatment. Further, the PLT of patients in the complication group was significantly lower than that in the non-complication group. Additionally, the PLT, MPV, and PDW levels in the complication group and the non-complication group increased gradually from the time of admission to the 3rd and 5th day of treatment. Notably, the PLT in the complication group was consistently lower than that in the non-complication group. The continuous monitoring of PLT, MPV, and PDW changes plays a crucial role in assessing malaria treatment efficacy and prognosis in these individuals.


Subject(s)
Malaria , Humans , Female , Male , Malaria/diagnosis , Malaria/blood , Malaria/drug therapy , Adult , Middle Aged , Platelet Count , Antimalarials/therapeutic use , Communicable Diseases, Imported/parasitology , Communicable Diseases, Imported/diagnosis , Treatment Outcome , Young Adult , Clinical Relevance
2.
BMC Infect Dis ; 24(1): 714, 2024 Jul 20.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39033158

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Loiasis is one of the significant filarial diseases for people living in West and Central Africa with wide endemic area but is not seen in China. As economy booms and international traveling increase, China faces more and more imported parasitic diseases that are not endemic locally. Loiasis is one of the parasitic diseases that enter China by travelers infected in Africa. The better understanding of the clinical and laboratory features of loa loa infection will facilitate the diagnosis and treatment of loiasis in China. METHODS: The study targeted travelers who were infected with L. loa in endemic Africa regions and returned to Beijing between 2014 and 2023. Epidemiological, clinical, and biological data as well as treatment of these patients were collected. RESULTS: Total 21 cases were identified as L. loa infection based on their typical clinical manifestations and parasite finding. All cases had a history of travel to Africa for more than 6 months, most of them are the construction workers dispatched to West Africa with outdoor activities. Calabar swelling (n = 19; 90.5%) and pruritus (n = 11; 52.4%) were among the most common clinical symptoms followed by muscle pain (n = 7; 33.3%) and skin rash (n = 2; 9.5%). The adult worms were observed in the eyelid or subconjunctiva (n = 2; 9.5%) and subcutaneous tissues (n = 2; 9.5%). Although all patients presented with a high eosinophil count (> 0.52 × 109/L), only two cases displayed microfilariae in fresh venous blood and positive for filarial antigen. A cut section of adult worm was observed through biopsy on a skin nodule surrounded by lymphocytes, plasma cells and eosinophils. All subjects were positive in PCR targeting L. loa ITS-1. The constructed phylogenetic tree based on the amplified ITS-1 sequences identified their genetical relation to the L. Loa from Africa. All patients treated with albendazole and diethylcarbamazine were recovered without relapse. CONCLUSION: This study provides useful information and guideline for physicians and researchers in non-endemic countries to diagnose and treat loiasis and L. loa infections acquired from endemic regions.


Subject(s)
Loa , Loiasis , Humans , Loiasis/epidemiology , Loiasis/drug therapy , Loiasis/diagnosis , Loiasis/parasitology , Male , Adult , Female , Animals , Middle Aged , Beijing/epidemiology , Loa/isolation & purification , Travel , Young Adult , Communicable Diseases, Imported/epidemiology , Communicable Diseases, Imported/parasitology , Communicable Diseases, Imported/diagnosis , Africa/epidemiology
3.
Parasitol Res ; 123(7): 278, 2024 Jul 18.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39023835

ABSTRACT

Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is often considered a 'great imitator' and is the most common form of leishmaniasis. The Leishmania species responsible for CL varies among countries, as these species exhibit specific distribution patterns. The increased mobility of people across countries has resulted in the imported incidences of leishmaniasis caused by non-endemic species of Leishmania. During 2023, we confirmed three CL cases caused by L. major from Kerala, India, and upon detailed investigation, these were identified to be imported from the Middle East and Kazakhstan regions. This is the first report of CL caused by L. major from Kerala. The lesion morphology, detection of anti-rK 39 antibody and Leishmania parasite DNA from the blood samples were the unique observations of these cases. Kerala, being an emerging endemic zone of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) and CL, the imported incidences of leishmaniasis by non-endemic species can pose a significant threat, potentially initiating new transmission cycles of leishmaniasis caused by non-endemic species.


Subject(s)
Leishmania major , Leishmaniasis, Cutaneous , India/epidemiology , Leishmaniasis, Cutaneous/parasitology , Leishmaniasis, Cutaneous/epidemiology , Leishmaniasis, Cutaneous/diagnosis , Humans , Male , Leishmania major/isolation & purification , Leishmania major/genetics , Adult , Female , Communicable Diseases, Imported/parasitology , Communicable Diseases, Imported/epidemiology , Middle Aged , DNA, Protozoan/genetics , Antibodies, Protozoan/blood
4.
Malar J ; 23(1): 195, 2024 Jun 22.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38909255

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Imported malaria continues to be reported in Sri Lanka after it was eliminated in 2012, and a few progress to life-threatening severe malaria. METHODS: Data on imported malaria cases reported in Sri Lanka from 2013 to 2023 were extracted from the national malaria database maintained by the Anti Malaria Campaign (AMC) of Sri Lanka. Case data of severe malaria as defined by the World Health Organization were analysed with regard to patients' general characteristics and their health-seeking behaviour, and the latter compared with that of uncomplicated malaria patients. Details of the last three cases of severe malaria in 2023 are presented. RESULTS: 532 imported malaria cases were diagnosed over 11 years (2013-2023); 46 (8.6%) were severe malaria, of which 45 were Plasmodium falciparum and one Plasmodium vivax. Most severe malaria infections were acquired in Africa. All but one were males, and a majority (87%) were 26-60 years of age. They were mainly Sri Lankan nationals (82.6%). Just over half (56.5%) were treated at government hospitals. The average time between arrival of the person in Sri Lanka and onset of illness was 4 days. 29 cases of severe malaria were compared with 165 uncomplicated malaria cases reported from 2015 to 2023. On average both severe and uncomplicated malaria patients consulted a physician equally early (mean = 1 day) with 93.3% of severe malaria doing so within 3 days. However, the time from the point of consulting a physician to diagnosis of malaria was significantly longer (median 4 days) in severe malaria patients compared to uncomplicated patients (median 1 day) (p = 0.012) as was the time from onset of illness to diagnosis (p = 0.042). All severe patients recovered without sequelae except for one who died. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of severe malaria among imported cases increases significantly beyond 5 days from the onset of symptoms. Although patients consult a physician early, malaria diagnosis tends to be delayed by physicians because it is now a rare disease. Good access to expert clinical care has maintained case fatality rates of severe malaria at par with those reported elsewhere.


Subject(s)
Communicable Diseases, Imported , Sri Lanka/epidemiology , Humans , Male , Adult , Middle Aged , Female , Young Adult , Communicable Diseases, Imported/epidemiology , Communicable Diseases, Imported/parasitology , Communicable Diseases, Imported/diagnosis , Malaria, Falciparum/epidemiology , Malaria, Vivax/epidemiology , Aged , Adolescent , Malaria/epidemiology , Malaria/prevention & control , Disease Eradication/statistics & numerical data
5.
JMIR Public Health Surveill ; 10: e51191, 2024 May 27.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38801767

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Understanding the patterns of disease importation through international travel is paramount for effective public health interventions and global disease surveillance. While global airline network data have been used to assist in outbreak prevention and effective preparedness, accurately estimating how these imported cases disseminate locally in receiving countries remains a challenge. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to describe and understand the regional distribution of imported cases of dengue and malaria upon arrival in Spain via air travel. METHODS: We have proposed a method to describe the regional distribution of imported cases of dengue and malaria based on the computation of the "travelers' index" from readily available socioeconomic data. We combined indicators representing the main drivers for international travel, including tourism, economy, and visits to friends and relatives, to measure the relative appeal of each region in the importing country for travelers. We validated the resulting estimates by comparing them with the reported cases of malaria and dengue in Spain from 2015 to 2019. We also assessed which motivation provided more accurate estimates for imported cases of both diseases. RESULTS: The estimates provided by the best fitted model showed high correlation with notified cases of malaria (0.94) and dengue (0.87), with economic motivation being the most relevant for imported cases of malaria and visits to friends and relatives being the most relevant for imported cases of dengue. CONCLUSIONS: Factual descriptions of the local movement of international travelers may substantially enhance the design of cost-effective prevention policies and control strategies, and essentially contribute to decision-support systems. Our approach contributes in this direction by providing a reliable estimate of the number of imported cases of nonendemic diseases, which could be generalized to other applications. Realistic risk assessments will be obtained by combining this regional predictor with the observed local distribution of vectors.


Subject(s)
Dengue , Malaria , Travel , Humans , Spain/epidemiology , Dengue/epidemiology , Malaria/epidemiology , Malaria/prevention & control , Travel/statistics & numerical data , Communicable Diseases, Imported/epidemiology , Communicable Diseases, Imported/prevention & control , Models, Statistical
6.
Pan Afr Med J ; 47: 80, 2024.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38708136

ABSTRACT

Introduction: with imported malaria cases in a given population, the question arises as to what extent the local cases are a consequence of the imports or not. We perform a modeling analysis for a specific area, in a region aspiring for malaria-free status. Methods: data on malaria cases over ten years is subjected to a compartmental model which is assumed to be operating close to the equilibrium state. Two of the parameters of the model are fitted to the decadal data. The other parameters in the model are sourced from the literature. The model is utilized to simulate the malaria prevalence with or without imported cases. Results: in any given year the annual average of 460 imported cases, resulted in an end-of-year season malaria prevalence of 257 local active infectious cases, whereas without the imports the malaria prevalence at the end of the season would have been fewer than 10 active infectious cases. We calculate the numerical value of the basic reproduction number for the model, which reveals the extent to which the disease is being eliminated from the population or not. Conclusion: without the imported cases, over the ten seasons of malaria, 2008-2018, the KwaZulu-Natal province would have been malaria-free over at least the last 7 years of the decade indicated. This simple methodology works well even in situations where data is limited.


Subject(s)
Communicable Diseases, Imported , Disease Eradication , Malaria , Seasons , Humans , South Africa/epidemiology , Malaria/prevention & control , Malaria/epidemiology , Prevalence , Communicable Diseases, Imported/epidemiology , Communicable Diseases, Imported/prevention & control , Basic Reproduction Number , Models, Theoretical
7.
Ugeskr Laeger ; 186(17)2024 Apr 22.
Article in Danish | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38704708

ABSTRACT

Leishmaniasis is transmitted by sandflies and involves cutaneous, mucocutaneous, or visceral disease. Sporadic, imported cases in Denmark emphasize the need for greater awareness. The incidence is stable with at least ten verified cases per year. Diagnostic methods include PCR- and antibody tests with a high positivity rate for PCR (17%) and a low positivity rate for antibody (1.4%). The latter should be used only when visceral disease is suspected. Immunosuppressed patients are at particular risk. Treatment strategies are chosen according to the severity of the condition, as argued in this review.


Subject(s)
Leishmaniasis , Humans , Denmark/epidemiology , Leishmaniasis/diagnosis , Communicable Diseases, Imported/diagnosis , Antiprotozoal Agents/therapeutic use , Polymerase Chain Reaction , Leishmaniasis, Cutaneous/diagnosis
8.
MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep ; 73(18): 417-419, 2024 May 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38722800

ABSTRACT

Malaria is a severe and potentially fatal mosquitoborne disease caused by infection with Plasmodium spp. parasites. Although malaria is no longer endemic in the United States, imported infections are reported annually; the primary risk group has been U.S. residents traveling to areas where malaria is endemic (1). In 2023, sporadic locally acquired mosquito-transmitted malaria cases were reported in several U.S. states (2,3). This report describes increases in imported malaria cases in 2023 compared with 2022 in three public health jurisdictions along the U.S. southern border.


Subject(s)
Communicable Diseases, Imported , Malaria , Humans , Malaria/epidemiology , Communicable Diseases, Imported/epidemiology , United States/epidemiology , Travel
9.
Euro Surveill ; 29(20)2024 May.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38757286

ABSTRACT

BackgroundGiardia duodenalis is a major cause of gastroenteritis globally, and is the most common food- and waterborne parasitic infection in Europe.AimTo describe the epidemiology of reported acute giardiasis cases in Germany and compare demographic and clinical characteristics between imported and autochthonous cases.MethodsWe conducted a descriptive analysis of giardiasis cases that fulfilled the national case definition and were reported between January 2002 and December 2021. We defined an imported case as having at least one place of exposure abroad in the 3-25 days before symptom onset. We analysed case numbers and incidence by age, sex, month reported and geographic region, both overall and stratified by autochthonous and imported cases.ResultsFrom 2002 to 2021, 72,318 giardiasis cases were reported in Germany, corresponding to a mean annual incidence of 4.4 per 100,000 population. Annual incidence gradually decreased since 2013, declining sharply during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-21. Of 69,345 cases reported between 2002 and 2019, 35% were imported. Incidence of autochthonous cases (overall yearly mean: 3.1/100,000) was highest in males and young children (< 5 years); imported cases were predominantly adults aged 20-39 years. We identified seasonal patterns for imported and autochthonous cases.ConclusionsGiardiasis in Germany is typically assumed to be imported. Our data, however, underline the importance of autochthonous giardiasis. Travel advice might reduce imported infections, but prevention strategies for autochthonous infections are less clear. Dietary, behavioural and environmental risk factors need to be further investigated to enhance infection prevention measures for autochthonous giardiasis.


Subject(s)
Giardiasis , Humans , Giardiasis/epidemiology , Germany/epidemiology , Adult , Male , Female , Incidence , Middle Aged , Adolescent , Child , Young Adult , Aged , Child, Preschool , Infant , Travel , COVID-19/epidemiology , Population Surveillance , SARS-CoV-2 , Age Distribution , Gastroenteritis/epidemiology , Gastroenteritis/parasitology , Communicable Diseases, Imported/epidemiology , Sex Distribution , Seasons , Aged, 80 and over
11.
Emerg Microbes Infect ; 13(1): 2343911, 2024 Dec.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38618930

ABSTRACT

Malaria remains one of the most important infectious diseases globally due to its high incidence and mortality rates. The influx of infected cases from endemic to non-endemic malaria regions like Europe has resulted in a public health concern over sporadic local outbreaks. This is facilitated by the continued presence of competent Anopheles vectors in non-endemic countries.We modelled the potential distribution of the main malaria vector across Spain using the ensemble of eight modelling techniques based on environmental parameters and the Anopheles maculipennis s.l. presence/absence data collected from 2000 to 2020. We then combined this map with the number of imported malaria cases in each municipality to detect the geographic hot spots with a higher risk of local malaria transmission.The malaria vector occurred preferentially in irrigated lands characterized by warm climate conditions and moderate annual precipitation. Some areas surrounding irrigated lands in northern Spain (e.g. Zaragoza, Logroño), mainland areas (e.g. Madrid, Toledo) and in the South (e.g. Huelva), presented a significant likelihood of A. maculipennis s.l. occurrence, with a large overlap with the presence of imported cases of malaria.While the risk of malaria re-emergence in Spain is low, it is not evenly distributed throughout the country. The four recorded local cases of mosquito-borne transmission occurred in areas with a high overlap of imported cases and mosquito presence. Integrating mosquito distribution with human incidence cases provides an effective tool for the quantification of large-scale geographic variation in transmission risk and pinpointing priority areas for targeted surveillance and prevention.


Subject(s)
Anopheles , Malaria , Mosquito Vectors , Anopheles/parasitology , Animals , Malaria/epidemiology , Malaria/transmission , Spain/epidemiology , Humans , Mosquito Vectors/parasitology , Communicable Diseases, Imported/epidemiology , Communicable Diseases, Imported/transmission , Incidence
12.
Travel Med Infect Dis ; 59: 102708, 2024.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38467231

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Detecting imported diseases by migrants and individuals visiting friends and relatives (VFR) is key in the prevention and management of emergent infectious diseases acquired abroad. METHODS: Retrospective descriptive study on migrants and VFR from Central and South America between 2017 and 2022 attended at a National Referral Centre for Tropical Diseases in Madrid, Spain. Demographic characteristics, syndromes and confirmed travel-related diagnoses were obtained from hospital patient medical records. RESULTS: 1654 cases were registered, median age of 42 years, 69.1% were female, and 55.2% were migrants. Most cases came from Bolivia (49.6%), followed by Ecuador (12.9%). Health screening while asymptomatic (31.6%) was the main reason for consultation, followed by Chagas disease follow-up (31%). Of those asymptomatic at screening, 47,2% were finally diagnosed of any disease, mainly Chagas disease (19,7%) and strongyloidiasis (10,2%) CONCLUSION: Our study emphasizes the importance of proactive health screening to detect asymptomatic conditions in migrants and VFR, enabling timely intervention and improved health outcomes. By understanding the unique health profiles of immigrant populations, targeted public health interventions can be devised to safeguard the well-being of these vulnerable groups.


Subject(s)
Communicable Diseases, Imported , Transients and Migrants , Humans , Retrospective Studies , Female , Male , Adult , Communicable Diseases, Imported/epidemiology , Communicable Diseases, Imported/prevention & control , Communicable Diseases, Imported/diagnosis , Spain/epidemiology , Transients and Migrants/statistics & numerical data , Middle Aged , Travel/statistics & numerical data , Adolescent , Latin America/epidemiology , Latin America/ethnology , Young Adult , Chagas Disease/diagnosis , Chagas Disease/epidemiology , Chagas Disease/prevention & control , Child , Aged , Tropical Medicine , Referral and Consultation/statistics & numerical data , Emigrants and Immigrants/statistics & numerical data
14.
Paediatr Int Child Health ; 44(1): 1-7, 2024 05.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38212934

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Data on imported infections in children and young people (CYP) are sparse. AIMS: To describe imported infections in CYP arriving from malaria-endemic areas and presenting to UK emergency departments (ED) who were screened for malaria. METHODS: This is a retrospective, multi-centre, observational study nested in a diagnostic accuracy study for malaria rapid diagnostic tests. Any CYP < 16 years presenting to a participating ED with a history of fever and travel to a malaria-endemic area between 1 January 2016 and 31 December 2017 and who had a malaria screen as a part of standard care were included. Geographical risk was calculated for the most common tropical infections. RESULTS: Of the 1414 CYP screened for malaria, 44.0% (n = 622) arrived from South Asia and 33.3% (n = 471) from sub-Saharan Africa. Half (50.0%) had infections common in both tropical and non-tropical settings such as viral upper respiratory tract infection (URTI); 21.0% of infections were coded as tropical if gastro-enteritis is included, with a total of 4.2% (60) cases of malaria. CYP diagnosed with malaria were 7.44 times more likely to have arrived from sub-Saharan Africa than from South Asia (OR 7.44, 3.78-16.41). CONCLUSION: A fifth of CYP presenting to participating UK EDs with fever and a history of travel to a malaria-endemic area and who were screened for malaria had a tropical infection if diarrhoea is included. A third of CYP had no diagnosis. CYP arriving from sub-Saharan Africa had the greatest risk of malaria.Abbreviations: CYP: children and young people; ED: emergency department; PERUKI: Paediatric Emergency Research in the UK and Ireland; RDT: rapid diagnostic test; VFR: visiting friends and relatives.


Subject(s)
Communicable Diseases, Imported , Malaria , Child , Humans , Adolescent , Retrospective Studies , Communicable Diseases, Imported/diagnosis , Communicable Diseases, Imported/epidemiology , Malaria/diagnosis , Malaria/epidemiology , Fever , Emergency Service, Hospital , United Kingdom/epidemiology
15.
J Epidemiol ; 34(4): 187-194, 2024 Apr 05.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37331795

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the trends of imported infectious diseases among travelers to non-endemic countries during the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. This article aimed to describe those among travelers to Japan. METHODS: This is a descriptive study based on national surveillance data. Imported infectious disease cases were defined as those with a reported overseas source of infection among 15 diseases pre-selected based on the probability and impact of importation. The number of notified cases from April 2016 to March 2021 were described by disease and time of diagnosis. The relative ratio and absolute difference in case counts-both by number and per arrival-were calculated by disease comparing those from the pandemic period (April 2020-March 2021) to the pre-pandemic period (April 2016-March 2020). RESULTS: A total of 3,524 imported infectious disease cases were diagnosed during the study period, including 3,439 cases before and 85 cases during the pandemic. The proportionate distribution of diseases changed but notification counts of all 15 diseases decreased during the pandemic. Accounting for arrivals, however, seven diseases showed a two-fold or greater increase, with a notable absolute increase per million arrivals for amebiasis (60.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 41.5-78.7), malaria (21.7; 95% CI, 10.5-33.0), and typhoid fever (9.3; 95% CI, 1.9-16.8). CONCLUSION: The epidemiology of imported infectious diseases changed during the pandemic. While the number of imported infectious disease cases decreased, the number of cases per arrivals increased considerably both in relative and absolute terms for several diseases of public health and clinical importance.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Communicable Diseases, Imported , Humans , Communicable Diseases, Imported/epidemiology , Pandemics , Travel , Japan/epidemiology , COVID-19/epidemiology
16.
Euro Surveill ; 28(37)2023 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37707980

ABSTRACT

In August 2023, six locally acquired dengue virus 1 infections were detected in Lodi province, Lombardy Region, in northern Italy, where the vector Aedes albopictus is present. Four cases were hospitalised, none died. The viruses clustered with Peruvian and Brazilian strains collected between 2021 and 2023. This preliminary report highlights the importance of continued integrated surveillance of imported vector-borne virus infections and the potential for tropical disease outbreaks in highly populated regions of northern Italy where competent vectors are present.


Subject(s)
Aedes , Communicable Diseases, Imported , Dengue , Humans , Animals , Mosquito Vectors , Disease Outbreaks , Italy/epidemiology , Dengue/epidemiology
17.
BMC Public Health ; 23(1): 1776, 2023 09 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37700251

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: There have been many prediction studies for imported infectious diseases, employing air-travel volume or the importation risk (IR) index, which is the product of travel-volume and disease burden in the source countries, as major predictors. However, there is a lack of studies validating the predictability of the variables especially for infectious diseases that have rarely been reported. In this study, we analyzed the prediction performance of the IR index and air-travel volume to predict disease importation. METHODS: Rabies and African trypanosomiasis were used as target diseases. The list of rabies and African trypanosomiasis importation events, annual air-travel volume between two specific countries, and incidence of rabies and African trypanosomiasis in the source countries were obtained from various databases. RESULTS: Logistic regression analysis showed that IR index was significantly associated with rabies importation risk (p value < 0.001), but the association with African trypanosomiasis was not significant (p value = 0.923). The univariable logistic regression models showed reasonable prediction performance for rabies (area under curve for Receiver operating characteristic [AUC] = 0.734) but poor performance for African trypanosomiasis (AUC = 0.641). CONCLUSIONS: Our study found that the IR index cannot be generally applicable for predicting rare importation events. However, it showed the potential utility of the IR index by suggesting acceptable performance in rabies models. Further studies are recommended to explore the generalizability of the IR index's applicability and to propose disease-specific prediction models.


Subject(s)
Communicable Diseases, Imported , Rabies , Humans , Communicable Diseases, Imported/epidemiology , Rabies/epidemiology , Cost of Illness , Databases, Factual , Risk Factors
18.
Infect Dis Poverty ; 12(1): 80, 2023 Aug 28.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37641152

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Zanzibar has made substantial progress in malaria control with vector control, improved diagnosis, and artemisinin-based combination therapy. Parasite prevalence in the population has remained around 1% but imported infections from mainland Tanzania contribute to sustained local transmission. Understanding travel patterns between mainland Tanzania and Zanzibar, and the risk of malaria infection, may help to control malaria importation to Zanzibar. METHODS: A rolling cross-sectional survey linked to routine reactive case detection of malaria was carried out in Zanzibar between May 2017 and October 2018. Households of patients diagnosed with malaria at health facilities were surveyed and household members were tested for malaria using rapid diagnostic tests and a sub-sample by quantitative PCR (qPCR). Interviews elicited a detailed travel history of all household members who had travelled within the past two months, including trips within and outside of Zanzibar. We estimated the association of malaria infection with travel destinations in pre-defined malaria endemicity categories, trip duration, and other co-variates using logistic regression. RESULTS: Of 17,891 survey participants, 1177 (7%) reported a recent trip, of which 769 (65%) visited mainland Tanzania. Among travellers to mainland Tanzania with travel destination details and a qPCR result available, 241/378 (64%) reported traveling to districts with a 'high' malaria endemicity and for 12% the highest endemicity category was 'moderate'. Travelers to the mainland were more likely to be infected with malaria parasites (29%, 108/378) than those traveling within Zanzibar (8%, 16/206) or to other countries (6%, 2/17). Among travellers to mainland Tanzania, those visiting highly endemic districts had a higher odds of being qPCR-positive than those who travelled only to districts where malaria-endemicity was classified as low or very low (adjusted odd ratio = 7.0, 95% confidence interval: 1.9-25.5). Among travellers to the mainland, 110/378 (29%) never or only sometimes used a mosquito net during their travel. CONCLUSIONS: Strategies to reduce malaria importation to Zanzibar may benefit from identifying population groups traveling to highly endemic areas in mainland Tanzania. Targeted interventions to prevent and clear infections in these groups may be more feasible than attempting to screen and treat all travellers upon arrival in Zanzibar.


Subject(s)
Communicable Diseases, Imported , Malaria , Humans , Tanzania/epidemiology , Communicable Diseases, Imported/epidemiology , Cross-Sectional Studies , Combined Modality Therapy , Malaria/epidemiology
19.
BMC Public Health ; 23(1): 930, 2023 05 23.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37221533

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Africa was threatened by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) due to the limited health care infrastructure. Rwanda has consistently used non-pharmaceutical strategies, such as lockdown, curfew, and enforcement of prevention measures to control the spread of COVID-19. Despite the mitigation measures taken, the country has faced a series of outbreaks in 2020 and 2021. In this paper, we investigate the nature of epidemic phenomena in Rwanda and the impact of imported cases on the spread of COVID-19 using endemic-epidemic spatio-temporal models. Our study provides a framework for understanding the dynamics of the epidemic in Rwanda and monitoring its phenomena to inform public health decision-makers for timely and targeted interventions. RESULTS: The findings provide insights into the effects of lockdown and imported infections in Rwanda's COVID-19 outbreaks. The findings showed that imported infections are dominated by locally transmitted cases. The high incidence was predominant in urban areas and at the borders of Rwanda with its neighboring countries. The inter-district spread of COVID-19 was very limited due to mitigation measures taken in Rwanda. CONCLUSION: The study recommends using evidence-based decisions in the management of epidemics and integrating statistical models in the analytics component of the health information system.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Communicable Diseases, Imported , Epidemics , Humans , Rwanda , Communicable Disease Control
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