The Impact of Human Cystic Echinococcosis in the Central Asian Region, 1990-2019.

Objective: This research aims to update knowledge on the regional and national sickness burden attributable to cystic echinococcosis (CE) from 1990 to 2019, as well as epidemiology and disease control, with a particular emphasis on the People's Central Asian Regions. Methods: We calculated the morbidity, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years at the global, regional, and national levels for CE in all central Asian countries from 1990 to 2019, and we analyzed the association between GDP per capita and the disease burden of CE. Results: In 2019, the three greatest numbers of CE cases were recorded in Kazakhstan [23986; 95% uncertainty interval (UI); 19796; 28908]; Uzbekistan (41079; 18351; 76048); and Tajikistan (10887; 4891; 20170) among all 9 countries. The three countries with the greatest ASIR of CE were estimated to be Kazakhstan (127.56; 95% UI: 105.34-153.8), Uzbekistan (123.53; 95% UI: 58.65-219.16), and Tajikistan (121.88; 58.57-213.93). Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan had the biggest increases (125%, 97%, and 83%, respectively) in the number of incident cases of CE, whereas Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Armenia saw the largest decreases (45%, 8%, and 3%, respectively). Conclusion: To reduce the illness burden caused by CE, our findings may help public health professionals and policymakers design cost-benefit initiatives. To lessen the impact of CE on society, it is suggested that more money be given to the region's most endemic nations. Echinococcosis, cystic, negative health effects, life-years lost due to disability, rate of occurrence as a function of age, rate of death as a function of age.

Cost-effectiveness of large-panel next-generation sequencing in guiding first-line treatment decisions for patients with nonsquamous advanced non-small cell lung cancer.

BACKGROUND: Clinical practice guidelines recommend broad-panel genomic profiling to identify actionable genomic alterations for patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (aNSCLC). OBJECTIVE: To assess the cost-effectiveness of large-panel next-generation sequencing (LP-NGS) compared with current empirical single-gene test (SGT) patterns to inform first-line treatment decisions for patients with aNSCLC from a US commercial payer perspective, accounting for the effect of testing turnaround time and time to treatment initiation. METHODS: We developed a discrete-event simulation model to estimate the impact of LP-NGS vs SGT for patients with nonsquamous aNSCLC. Discrete events and timing included testing patterns, receipt of the initial test result, treatment initiation (targeted vs nontargeted therapies), switching, retesting, rebiopsies, clinical trial participation, progression on therapy, and death. LP-NGS and SGT cohorts each comprised 100,000 adults with aNSCLC simulated over a 5-year postdiagnosis period, assumed to have the same distribution of genomic alterations. The model predicted the proportion of patients receiving appropriate first-line therapy according to clinical practice guidelines. Economic outcomes included expected life-years gained, quality-adjusted life-years, and the total costs of care over 5 years. Sensitivity and scenario analyses explored the robustness of the base-case model results. RESULTS: In the base-case model, LP-NGS was likely to identify more alterations than SGT. Total 5-year costs per patient were $539,658 for LP-NGS and $544,550 for SGT (net difference, $4,892 lower costs per patient for LP-NGS), which is likely to be cost-effective 95.1% of the time. The most influential model parameters on the 5-year total costs of care were preprogression nondrug medical costs on nontargeted therapy, NGS turnaround time, and clinical trial participation. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that LP-NGS to guide first-line treatment decisions is clinically more appropriate (more likely to identify alterations and subsequently allocate patients to clinically appropriate therapy) and provides a dominant cost-effectiveness treatment strategy over 5 years for patients with newly diagnosed aNSCLC in the United States.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of health tapestry, a complex primary care program for older adults: a post-hoc analysis.

BACKGROUND: We initially reported on the cost-effectiveness of a 6-month randomized controlled implementation trial which evaluated Health TAPESTRY, a primary care program for older adults, at the McMaster Family Health Team (FHT) site and 5 other FHT sites in Ontario, Canada. While there were no statistically significant between-group differences in outcomes at month 6 post randomization, positive outcomes were observed at the McMaster FHT site, which recruited 40% (204/512) of the participants. The objective of this post-hoc study was to determine the cost-effectiveness of Health TAPESTRY based on data from the McMaster FHT site. METHODS: Costs included the cost to implement Health TAPESTRY at McMaster as well as healthcare resource consumed, which were costed using publicly available sources. Health-related-quality-of-life was evaluated with the EQ-5L-5L at baseline and at month 6 post randomization. Quality-adjusted-life-years (QALYs) were calculated under an-area-under the curve approach. Unadjusted and adjusted regression analyses (two independent regression analyses on costs and QALYs, seemingly unrelated regression [SUR], net benefit regression) as well as difference-in-difference and propensity score matching (PSM) methods, were used to deal with the non-randomized nature of the trial. Sampling uncertainty inherent to the trial data was estimated using non-parametric bootstrapping. The return on investment (ROI) associated with Health TAPESTRY was calculated. All costs were reported in 2021 Canadian dollars. RESULTS: With an intervention cost of $293/patient, Health TAPESTRY was the preferred strategy in the unadjusted and adjusted analyses. The results of our bootstrap analyses indicated that Health TAPESTRY was cost-effective compared to usual care at commonly accepted WTP thresholds. For example, if decision makers were willing to pay $50,000 per QALY gained, the probability of Health TAPESTRY to be cost effective compared to usual care varied from 0.72 (unadjusted analysis) to 0.96 (SUR) when using a WTP of $50,000/QALY gained. The DID and ROI analyses indicated that Health Tapestry generated a positive ROI. CONCLUSION: Health TAPESTRY was the preferred strategy when implemented at the McMaster FHT. We caution care in interpreting the results because of the post-hoc nature of the analyses and limited sample size based on one site.

A scenario based approach to optimizing cost-effectiveness of physician-staffed Helicopter Emergency Medical Services compared to ground-based Emergency Medical Services in Finland.

OBJECTIVES: Since Helicopter Emergency Medical Services (HEMS) is an expensive resource in terms of unit price compared to ground-based Emergency Medical Service (EMS), it is important to further investigate which methods would allow for the optimization of these services. The aim of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of physician-staffed HEMS compared to ground-based EMS in developed scenarios with improvements in triage, aviation performance, and the inclusion of ischemic stroke patients. METHODS: Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was assessed by comparing health outcomes and costs of HEMS versus ground-based EMS across six different scenarios. Estimated 30-day mortality and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were used to measure health benefits. Quality-of-Life (QoL) was assessed with EuroQoL instrument, and a one-way sensitivity analysis was carried out across different patient groups. Survival estimates were evaluated from the national FinnHEMS database, with cost analysis based on the most recent financial reports. RESULTS: The best outcome was achieved in Scenario 3.1 which included a reduction in over-alerts, aviation performance enhancement, and assessment of ischemic stroke patients. This scenario yielded 1077.07-1436.09 additional QALYs with an ICER of 33,703-44,937 €/QALY. This represented a 27.72% increase in the additional QALYs and a 21.05% reduction in the ICER compared to the current practice. CONCLUSIONS: The cost-effectiveness of HEMS can be highly improved by adding stroke patients into the dispatch criteria, as the overall costs are fixed, and the cost-effectiveness is determined based on the utilization rate of capacity.

Clinical Outcomes and Cost-Effectiveness of Collaborative Dementia Care: A Secondary Analysis of a Cluster Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Long-term evidence for the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of collaborative dementia care management (CDCM) is lacking. Objective: To evaluate whether 6 months of CDCM is associated with improved patient clinical outcomes and caregiver burden and is cost-effective compared with usual care over 36 months. Design, Setting, and Participants: This was a prespecified secondary analysis of a general practitioner (GP)-based, cluster randomized, 2-arm clinical trial conducted in Germany from January 1, 2012, to December 31, 2014, with follow-up until March 31, 2018. Participants were aged 70 years or older, lived at home, and screened positive for dementia. Data were analyzed from March 2011 to March 2018. Intervention: The intervention group received CDCM, comprising a comprehensive needs assessment and individualized interventions by nurses specifically qualified for dementia care collaborating with GPs and health care stakeholders over 6 months. The control group received usual care. Main Outcomes and Measures: Main outcomes were neuropsychiatric symptoms (Neuropsychiatric Inventory [NPI]), caregiver burden (Berlin Inventory of Caregivers' Burden in Dementia [BIZA-D]), health-related quality of life (HRQOL, measured by the Quality of Life in Alzheimer Disease scale and 12-Item Short-Form Health Survey [SF-12]), antidementia drug treatment, potentially inappropriate medication, and cost-effectiveness (incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year [QALY]) over 36 months. Outcomes between groups were compared using multivariate regression models adjusted for baseline scores. Results: A total of 308 patients, of whom 221 (71.8%) received CDCM (mean [SD] age, 80.1 [5.3] years; 142 [64.3%] women) and 87 (28.2%) received usual care (mean [SD] age, 79.2 [4.5] years; 50 [57.5%] women), were included in the clinical effectiveness analyses, and 428 (303 [70.8%] CDCM, 125 [29.2%] usual care) were included in the cost-effectiveness analysis (which included 120 patients who had died). Participants receiving CDCM showed significantly fewer behavioral and psychological symptoms (adjusted mean difference [AMD] in NPI score, -10.26 [95% CI, -16.95 to -3.58]; P = .003; Cohen d, -0.78 [95% CI, -1.09 to -0.46]), better mental health (AMD in SF-12 Mental Component Summary score, 2.26 [95% CI, 0.31-4.21]; P = .02; Cohen d, 0.26 [95% CI, -0.11 to 0.51]), and lower caregiver burden (AMD in BIZA-D score, -0.59 [95% CI, -0.81 to -0.37]; P < .001; Cohen d, -0.71 [95% CI, -1.03 to -0.40]). There was no difference between the CDCM group and usual care group in use of antidementia drugs (adjusted odds ratio, 1.91 [95% CI, 0.96-3.77]; P = .07; Cramér V, 0.12) after 36 months. There was no association with overall HRQOL, physical health, or use of potentially inappropriate medication. The CDCM group gained QALYs (0.137 [95% CI, 0.000 to 0.274]; P = .049; Cohen d, 0.20 [95% CI, -0.09 to 0.40]) but had no significant increase in costs (437€ [-5438€ to 6313€] [US $476 (95% CI, -$5927 to $6881)]; P = .87; Cohen d, 0.07 [95% CI, -0.14 to 0.28]), resulting in a cost-effectiveness ratio of 3186€ (US $3472) per QALY. Cost-effectiveness was significantly better for patients living alone (CDCM dominated, with lower costs and more QALYs gained) than for those living with a caregiver (47 538€ [US $51 816] per QALY). Conclusions and Relevance: In this secondary analysis of a cluster randomized clinical trial, CDCM was associated with improved patient, caregiver, and health system-relevant outcomes over 36 months beyond the intervention period. Therefore, it should become a health policy priority to initiate translation of CDCM into routine care. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01401582.

Temporal Trends and Burden of Rheumatic Heart Disease in South Asia: A Comprehensive Analysis of Three Decades from Global Burden of Disease Study.

Background: The objective of this study is to conduct a temporal analysis of rheumatic heart disease (RHD) disease burden trends over a 30-year period (1991 to 2021), focusing on prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in the South Asia (SA). Methods: In this ecological study, we analyzed data regarding burden of RHD from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) study spanning the years 1991 to 2021 for the SA Region. Estimates of the number RHD-related prevalence, deaths, and DALYs along with age-standardized rates (ASR) per 100,000 population and 95% uncertainty intervals (UI) were evaluated. Results: The overall prevalent cases of RHD in the 2021 were 54785.1 × 103 (43328.4 × 103 to 67605.5 × 103), out of which 14378.8 × 103 (11206.9 × 103 to 18056.9 × 103) were from SA. The ASR of point prevalence showed upward trend between 1991 and 2021, at global level and for SA with an average annual percentage change (AAPC) of 0.40 (0.39 to 0.40) and 0.12 (0.11 to 0.13), respectively. The overall number of RHD-related deaths in the 2021 were 373.3 × 103 (324.1 × 103 to 444.8 × 103), out of which 215 × 103 (176.9 × 103 to 287.8 × 103) were from SA, representing 57.6% of the global deaths. The ASR of deaths also showed downward trend between 1991 and 2021, at global level and for SA with an AAPC of -2.66 (-2.70 to -2.63) and -2.07 (-2.14 to -2.00), respectively. The ASR of DALYs showed downward trend between 1990 and 2019, at global level and for South Asian region with an AAPC of -2.47 (-2.49 to -2.44) and -2.22 (-2.27 to -2.17), respectively. Conclusion: The rising age-standardized prevalence of RHD remains a global concern, especially in South Asia which contribute to over 50% of global RHD-related deaths. Encouragingly, declining trends in RHD-related deaths and DALYs hint at progress in RHD management and treatment on both a global and regional scale.

Differential Target Multiplexed Spinal Cord Stimulation: A UK Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this economic analysis was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of differential target multiplexed spinal cord stimulation (DTM-SCS) for treating chronic intractable low back pain, compared with conventional spinal cord stimulation (C-SCS) and conservative medical management (CMM), by updating and expanding the inputs for a previously published cross-industry model. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This model comprised a 12-month decision-tree phase followed by a long-term Markov model. Costs and outcomes were calculated from a UK National Health Service perspective, over a base-case horizon of 15 years and up to a maximum of 40 years. All model inputs were derived from published literature or other deidentified sources and updated to reflect recent clinical trials and costs. Deterministic and one-way sensitivity analyses were performed to calculate costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) across the 15-year time horizon and to explore the impact of individual parameter variability on the cost-effectiveness results. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was undertaken to explore the impact of joint parameter uncertainty on the results. RESULTS: DTM-SCS was the most cost-effective option from a payer perspective. Compared with CMM alone, DTM-SCS was associated with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £6101 per QALY gained (incremental net benefit [INB] = £21,281). The INB for C-SCS compared with CMM was lower than for DTM-SCS, at £8551. For the comparison of DTM-SCS and C-SCS, an ICER of £897 per QALY gained was calculated, with a 99.5% probability of cost-effectiveness at a £20,000 per QALY threshold. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with low back pain treated over a 15-year follow-up period, DTM-SCS and C-SCS are cost-effective compared with CMM, from both payer and societal perspectives. DTM-SCS is associated with a lower ICER than that of C-SCS. Wider uptake of DTM-SCS in the UK health care system is warranted to manage chronic low back pain.

Laparoscopic cholecystectomy versus conservative management for adults with uncomplicated symptomatic gallstones: the C-GALL RCT.

Background: Gallstone disease is a common gastrointestinal disorder in industrialised societies. The prevalence of gallstones in the adult population is estimated to be approximately 10-15%, and around 80% remain asymptomatic. At present, cholecystectomy is the default option for people with symptomatic gallstone disease. Objectives: To assess the clinical and cost-effectiveness of observation/conservative management compared with laparoscopic cholecystectomy for preventing recurrent symptoms and complications in adults presenting with uncomplicated symptomatic gallstones in secondary care. Design: Parallel group, multicentre patient randomised superiority pragmatic trial with up to 24 months follow-up and embedded qualitative research. Within-trial cost-utility and 10-year Markov model analyses. Development of a core outcome set for uncomplicated symptomatic gallstone disease. Setting: Secondary care elective settings. Participants: Adults with symptomatic uncomplicated gallstone disease referred to a secondary care setting were considered for inclusion. Interventions: Participants were randomised 1: 1 at clinic to receive either laparoscopic cholecystectomy or observation/conservative management. Main outcome measures: The primary outcome was quality of life measured by area under the curve over 18 months using the Short Form-36 bodily pain domain. Secondary outcomes included the Otago gallstones' condition-specific questionnaire, Short Form-36 domains (excluding bodily pain), area under the curve over 24 months for Short Form-36 bodily pain domain, persistent symptoms, complications and need for further treatment. No outcomes were blinded to allocation. Results: Between August 2016 and November 2019, 434 participants were randomised (217 in each group) from 20 United Kingdom centres. By 24 months, 64 (29.5%) in the observation/conservative management group and 153 (70.5%) in the laparoscopic cholecystectomy group had received surgery, median time to surgery of 9.0 months (interquartile range, 5.6-15.0) and 4.7 months (interquartile range 2.6-7.9), respectively. At 18 months, the mean Short Form-36 norm-based bodily pain score was 49.4 (standard deviation 11.7) in the observation/conservative management group and 50.4 (standard deviation 11.6) in the laparoscopic cholecystectomy group. The mean area under the curve over 18 months was 46.8 for both groups with no difference: mean difference -0.0, 95% confidence interval (-1.7 to 1.7); p-value 0.996; n = 203 observation/conservative, n = 205 cholecystectomy. There was no evidence of differences in quality of life, complications or need for further treatment at up to 24 months follow-up. Condition-specific quality of life at 24 months favoured cholecystectomy: mean difference 9.0, 95% confidence interval (4.1 to 14.0), p < 0.001 with a similar pattern for the persistent symptoms score. Within-trial cost-utility analysis found observation/conservative management over 24 months was less costly than cholecystectomy (mean difference -£1033). A non-significant quality-adjusted life-year difference of -0.019 favouring cholecystectomy resulted in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £55,235. The Markov model continued to favour observation/conservative management, but some scenarios reversed the findings due to uncertainties in longer-term quality of life. The core outcome set included 11 critically important outcomes from both patients and healthcare professionals. Conclusions: The results suggested that in the short term (up to 24 months) observation/conservative management may be a cost-effective use of National Health Service resources in selected patients, but subsequent surgeries in the randomised groups and differences in quality of life beyond 24 months could reverse this finding. Future research should focus on longer-term follow-up data and identification of the cohort of patients that should be routinely offered surgery. Trial registration: This trial is registered as ISRCTN55215960. Funding: This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme (NIHR award ref: 14/192/71) and is published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 28, No. 26. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

The C-GALL study assessed the benefits, in terms of symptoms, quality of life and costs, of cholecystectomy versus observation (conservative management: by the patient and general practitioner that might include dietary advice and pain management and surgery if needed). Four hundred and thirty-four patients with symptomatic gallstones were randomly allocated surgery or conservative management. The main symptom of ongoing bodily pain and some other quality-of-life measures were assessed over the next 2 years using postal questionnaires. After 2 years, 70% of those allocated to surgery had been operated on and 37% of the observation group either had an operation or were waiting for one. There was no difference in bodily pain or overall quality of life between the groups. However, participants in the surgery group reported fewer ongoing problems related to their gallstone disease or after surgery than those in the conservative management group. Surgery was, however, more costly than conservative management. The C-GALL study has shown that for some patients, a conservative management approach may be a sufficient and less costly way of managing their gallstone symptoms rather than going straight on the waiting list for surgery. More research is needed to identify which patients benefit most from surgery.

Long-term outcomes in virtual surgical planning for mandibular reconstruction: A cost-effectiveness analysis.

OBJECTIVE: This study is an economic evaluation comparing virtual surgical planning (VSP) utilization to free hand mandibular reconstruction (FHR) for advanced oral cavity cancer, for which the cost effectiveness remains poorly understood. The proposed clinical benefits of VSP must be weighed against the additional upfront costs. METHODS: A Markov decision analysis model was created for VSP and FHR based on literature review and institutional data over a 35-year time horizon. Model parameters were derived and averaged from systematic review and institutional experience. VSP cost and surgical time saving was incorporated. We accounted for long-term risks including cancer recurrence and hardware failure/exposure. We calculated cost in US dollars and effectiveness in quality-adjusted-life-years (QALYs). A health care perspective was adopted, discounting costs and effectiveness at 3%/year. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses tested model robustness. RESULTS: In the base case scenario, total VSP strategy cost was $49,498 with 8.37 QALYs gained while FHR cost was $42,478 with 8.27 QALY gained. An incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), or the difference in cost/difference in effectiveness, for VSP was calculated at $68,382/QALY gained. VSP strategy favorability was sensitive to variations of patient age at diagnosis and institutional VSP cost with one-way sensitivity analysis. VSP was less economically favorable for patients >75.5 years of age or for institutional VSP costs >$10,745. In a probabilistic sensitivity analysis, 55% of iterations demonstrated an ICER value below a $100,000/QALY threshold. CONCLUSIONS/RELEVANCE: VSP is economically favorable compared to FHR in patients requiring mandibular reconstruction for advanced oral cancer, but these results are sensitive to the patient's age at diagnosis and the institutional VSP cost. Our results do not suggest if one "should or should not" use VSP, rather, emphasizes the need for patient selection regarding which patients would most benefit from VSP when evaluating quality of life and long-term complications. Further studies are necessary to demonstrate improved long-term risk for hardware failure/exposure in VSP compared to FHR.

Cost-effectiveness of add-on empagliflozin versus standard of care in management of CKD in Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam - findings from a modelling study assessing an EMPA-KIDNEY eligible population, using CKD progression model.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Nearly one in ten individuals in South-East Asia are estimated to be affected by chronic kidney disease (CKD). The burden of end-stage kidney disease is significant and can be heavy on the healthcare system. The recent EMPA-KIDNEY trial demonstrated a significant reduction in the risk of kidney disease progression or cardiovascular death in patients with CKD with a broad range of kidney function using add-on empagliflozin versus standard of care (SoC) alone. The objective of this study was to estimate the economic benefit of empagliflozin for patients with CKD in Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam. METHODS: An individual patient level simulation model with an annual cycle that estimates the progression of kidney function and associated risk-factors was employed. Local costs and mortality rates were estimated from a wide range of published literature. A healthcare perspective was used over a 50-year time horizon. RESULTS: The use of add-on empagliflozin versus SoC alone was found to be cost-saving in Malaysia and Thailand and cost-effective (ICER: 77,838,407 Vietnam Dong/QALY vs. a willingness to pay threshold of 96,890,026/QALY) in Vietnam. The bulk of the costs avoided over a lifetime is derived from the prevention or delay of dialysis initiation or kidney transplant - the cost offsets were nearly twice the additional treatment cost. The results were similar in patients with and without diabetes and across broad range of albuminuria. CONCLUSIONS: The use of add-on empagliflozin in a broad population of patients with CKD is expected to be cost-saving in Malaysia and Thailand and cost-effective in Vietnam and will help alleviate the increasing burden of CKD in the region.

Economic evaluation of the effect of needle and syringe programs on skin, soft tissue, and vascular infections in people who inject drugs: a microsimulation modelling approach.

BACKGROUND: Needle and syringe programs (NSP) are effective harm-reduction strategies against HIV and hepatitis C. Although skin, soft tissue, and vascular infections (SSTVI) are the most common morbidities in people who inject drugs (PWID), the extent to which NSP are clinically and cost-effective in relation to SSTVI in PWID remains unclear. The objective of this study was to model the clinical- and cost-effectiveness of NSP with respect to treatment of SSTVI in PWID. METHODS: We performed a model-based, economic evaluation comparing a scenario with NSP to a scenario without NSP. We developed a microsimulation model to generate two cohorts of 100,000 individuals corresponding to each NSP scenario and estimated quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) and cost (in 2022 Canadian dollars) over a 5-year time horizon (1.5% per annum for costs and outcomes). To assess the clinical effectiveness of NSP, we conducted survival analysis that accounted for the recurrent use of health care services for treating SSTVI and SSTVI mortality in the presence of competing risks. RESULTS: The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio associated with NSP was $70,278 per QALY, with incremental cost and QALY gains corresponding to $1207 and 0.017 QALY, respectively. Under the scenario with NSP, there were 788 fewer SSTVI deaths per 100,000 PWID, corresponding to 24% lower relative hazard of mortality from SSTVI (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.76; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.72-0.80). Health service utilization over the 5-year period remained lower under the scenario with NSP (outpatient: 66,511 vs. 86,879; emergency department: 9920 vs. 12,922; inpatient: 4282 vs. 5596). Relatedly, having NSP was associated with a modest reduction in the relative hazard of recurrent outpatient visits (HR = 0.96; 95% CI = 0.95-0.97) for purulent SSTVI as well as outpatient (HR = 0.88; 95% CI = 0.87-0.88) and emergency department visits (HR = 0.98; 95% CI = 0.97-0.99) for non-purulent SSTVI. CONCLUSIONS: Both the individuals and the healthcare system benefit from NSP through lower risk of SSTVI mortality and prevention of recurrent outpatient and emergency department visits to treat SSTVI. The microsimulation framework provides insights into clinical and economic implications of NSP, which can serve as valuable evidence that can aid decision-making in expansion of NSP services.

The Global Burden of Disease Attributable to Child and Maternal Malnutrition: 1990-2019.

OBJECTIVE: With this study, we aimed to estimate the disease burden attributable to child and maternal malnutrition (CMM) throughout the world between 1990 and 2019. METHODS: The number, age-standardized rate, population attributable fraction of deaths, disability-adjusted life-years, years of life lost, and years lived with disability associated with CMM were estimated using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 by age, sex, year, location, and sociodemographic index at the global level. The slope index of inequality and concentration index were employed to measure socioeconomic-related health inequalities across countries. RESULTS: The number (million) of global deaths, disability-adjusted life-years, and years of life lost related to CMM were 2.9, 294.8, and 250.5 in 2019, showing decreases of 60.8, 57.4, and 60.7% since 1990. However, the number of years lived with CMM-related disability increased from 36.0 in 1990 to 44.3 in 2019. Additionally, the age-standardized rates of these 4 indicators showed varying degrees of decline. The global burden of CMM-related conditions differed with age and sex. The burden was the heaviest in western sub-Saharan Africa, especially in Chad. In terms of diseases, neonatal disorders represented the most significant burden attributed to CMM. Additionally, the CMM burden was more concentrated in regions with low sociodemographic indices, shown by the slope index of inequality and concentration index. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this study highlight the ongoing global burden of CMM, particularly in terms of years lived with disability. Population-wide actions targeting the effective treatment and relief of CMM may reduce the CMM-related disease burden.

First-line serplulimab plus chemotherapy versus chemotherapy in PD-L1-positive esophageal squamous-cell carcinoma: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

Patients with PD-L1-positive esophageal squamous-cell carcinoma (ESCC) were significantly more likely to survive when treated with serplulimab plus cisplatin plus 5-fluorouracil (serplulimab-CF). At this point, it is unknown whether this expensive therapy is cost-effective. From the Chinese healthcare system's perspective, we aimed to evaluate serplulimab-CF versus CF alone for cost-effectiveness. A partitioned survival model was constructed based on the ASTRUM-007 trial. Quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) were calculated. A further analysis of subgroups and scenarios was conducted. The willingness to pay (WTP) threshold of $38,258/QALY or $84,866/QALY is defined as three times the per capita gross domestic product value of the general region or affluent region. Compared with CF alone, in the overall (scenario 1), patients with PD-L1 expression level of 1 ≤ CPS < 10 (scenario 2), and patients with PD-L1 CPS ≥ 10 (scenario 3) populations, the ICERs were $69,025/QALY, $82,533/QALY, and $75,436/QALY for serplulimab-CF. Nevertheless, the probability of serplulimab-CF becoming cost-effective based on scenarios 1, 2, and 3 is only 2.71%, 0.94%, and 2.84%, respectively, at a WTP threshold of $38,258/QALY. When serplulimab costs < $4.84/mg, serplulimab-CF may be cost-effective at the WTP threshold of $38,258/QALY; otherwise, CF was preferred. Similar results were obtained from sensitivity analyses, suggesting the robustness of these findings. There was no cost-effectiveness in general regions of China for serplulimab-CF in PD-L1-positive ESCC compared to CF, although it is probably considered cost-effective in affluent regions. Serplulimab-CF may achieve favorable cost-effectiveness by lowering the price of serplulimab.

A Dutch cost-effectiveness analysis of fremanezumab versus best supportive care in patients with chronic migraine and inadequate response to prior preventive therapy.

BACKGROUND: Chronic migraine (CM) is the most severe and burdensome subtype of migraine. Fremanezumab is a monoclonal antibody that targets the calcitonin gene-related peptide pathway as a migraine preventive therapy. This study aimed to conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis of fremanezumab from a societal perspective in the Netherlands, using a Markov cohort simulation model. METHODS: The base-case cost-effectiveness analysis adhered to the Netherlands Authority guidelines. Fremanezumab was compared with best supportive care (BSC; acute migraine treatment only) in patients with CM and an inadequate response to topiramate or valproate and onabotulinumtoxinA (Dutch patient group [DPG]). A supportive analysis was conducted in the broader group of CM patients with prior inadequate response to 2-4 different classes of migraine preventive treatments. One-way sensitivity, probabilistic sensitivity, and scenario analyses were conducted. RESULTS: Over a lifetime horizon, fremanezumab is cost saving compared with BSC in the DPG (saving of €2514 per patient) and led to an increase of 1.45 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). In the broader supportive analysis, fremanezumab was cost effective compared with BSC, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of €2547/QALY gained. Fremanezumab remained cost effective in all sensitivity and scenario analyses. CONCLUSION: In comparison to BSC, fremanezumab is cost saving in the DPG and cost effective in the broader population.

The cost effectiveness of early assessment and intervention by a dedicated health and social care professional team for older adults in the emergency department compared to treatment-as-usual: Economic evaluation of the OPTI-MEND trial.

BACKGROUND: Over 65s are frequent attenders to the Emergency Department (ED) and more than half are admitted for overnight stays. Early assessment and intervention by a dedicated ED-based Health and Social Care Professionals (HSCP) team reduces ED length of stay and the risk of hospital admissions among older adults while improving patient health-related quality-of-life and satisfaction with care. This study aims to evaluate whether augmenting the treatment as usual for older adults admitted to ED is cost-effective. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA), conducted alongside the OPTI-MEND randomised controlled trial of 353 patients aged ≥65 with lower urgency complaints compared the effectiveness of early assessment and intervention by a dedicated HSCP team in the ED to treatment as usual (TAU). An economic analysis estimated the average cost per older adults randomised to the HSCP team, and compared to TAU, how contact with HSCP team changed health care use, and associated total costs, and estimated the effect of HSCP on Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs). Within the OPTI-MEND trial, the average cost of a contact with the HSCP team during ED attendance is estimated to be €801 per patient. Compared to TAU, the incremental QALY of intervention is 0.053 (95% CI: 0.023 to 0.0826, p<0.0001). Accounting for cost savings because of contact with HSCP team, the average incremental saving in the total cost, compared to TAU, is -€6,128 (95% CI: -€9,217 to -€3,038, p<0.0001). Given the incremental health gains and significant cost savings, bootstrapped cost CEA suggests that dedicated HSCP care dominates over TAU for low urgency older adults attending the ED. CONCLUSIONS: A dedicated HSCP team in the ED significantly improves overall health for lower acuity older adults and, by reducing inpatient length of stay, results in staggering cost savings. This economic evaluation conducted on the OPTI-MEND trial provides convincing evidence that HSCP should be adopted as part of treatment as usual in Irish EDs. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03739515; registered on 12th November 2018. https://classic.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03739515.

Decision-Making for Preventive Interventions in Asymptomatic Patients.

The decision to treat an incidental finding in an asymptomatic patient results from careful risk-benefit consideration and is often challenging. One of the main aspects is after how many years the group who underwent the intervention and faced the immediate treatment complications will gain a treatment benefit over the conservatively managed group, which maintains a lower but ongoing risk. We identify a common error in decision-making. We illustrate how a risk-based approach using the classical break-even point at the Kaplan-Meier curves can be misleading and advocate for using an outcome-based approach, counting the cumulative number of lost quality-adjusted life years instead. In clinical practice, we often add together the yearly risk of the natural course up to the time point where the number equals the risk of the intervention and assume that the patient will benefit from an intervention beyond this point in time. It corresponds to the crossing of the Kaplan-Meier curves. However, because treatment-related poor outcome occurs at the time of the intervention, while the poor outcome in the conservative group occurs over a given time period, the true benefit of retaining more quality-adjusted life years in the interventional group emerges at a much later time. To avoid overtreatment of patients with asymptomatic diseases, decision-making should be outcome-based with counting the cumulative loss of quality-adjusted life years, rather than risk-based, comparing the interventional risk with the ongoing yearly risk of the natural course.

The Impact of Alternate Methodological and Structural Assumptions on Results of Cost-effectiveness Analysis: Empirical Evidence using Three Indian Economic Evaluations.

BACKGROUND: Despite advancement in methods and application of economic evaluations (EEs), there are several uncertainties. OBJECTIVES: To assess the impact of alternate methodological and structural assumptions for four key principles of EE, on the results of cost-effectiveness analysis. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Three previously published model-based EEs were used: (1) Integrated Management of Neonatal and Childhood Illnesses (IMNCIs) intervention; (2) intervention for multiple myeloma, and (3) safety-engineered syringes (SES) intervention. A series of empirical analyses was undertaken to assess the impact of alternate assumptions for discount-rate, time-horizon, study perspective, and health outcome measure, on incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), and interpretation of cost-effectiveness. RESULTS: Increasing discount rate resulted in an increase in ICERs, for all three case-studies; however, there was no change in the conclusions. Using shorter time-horizons resulted in a significant increase in ICERs, the multiple myeloma intervention remained cost-ineffective, SES intervention became cost-ineffective, whereas IMNCI intervention remained cost-effective, despite a three-fold increase in ICER. On using disability adjusted life years instead of quality adjusted life years, ICERs increased to 0.04, 2 and 4 times for SES, IMNCI and multiple myeloma interventions, respectively. On analyzing results from a societal perspective, a decline in ICERs was observed. The decline was significant for IMNCI where the intervention turned dominant/cost-saving. In the other two case-studies decline in ICERs was modest, 32% for multiple myeloma, and 4% for SES. CONCLUSION: We observed a significant impact of using alternate assumptions on ICERs which can potentially impact resource-allocation decisions. Our findings provide strong argument in favor of standardization of processes and development of country-specific guidelines for conduct of EE.

Trends in the burden and determinants of HIV in the Asia-Pacific region (1990-2019): An age-period-cohort analysis of the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study.

Although the burden of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in the Asia-Pacific region is increasingly severe, comprehensive evidence of the burden of HIV is scarce. We aimed to report the burden of HIV in people aged 15-79 years from 1990 to 2019 using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019. We analyzed rates of age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (ASDR), age-standardized mortality (ASMR), and age-standardized incidence (ASIR) in our age-period-cohort analysis by sociodemographic index (SDI). According to HIV reports in 2019 from 29 countries in the Asia-Pacific region, the low SDI group in Papua New Guinea had the highest ASDR, ASMR, and ASIR. From 1990 to 2019, the ASDR, ASIR, and ASMR of persons with acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) increased in 21 (72%) of the 29 countries in the Asia-Pacific region. During the same period, the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of AIDS patients in the low SDI group in the region grew the fastest, particularly in Nepal. The incidence of HIV among individuals aged 20-30 years in the low-middle SDI group was higher than that of those in the other age groups. In 2019, unsafe sex was the main cause of HIV-related ASDR in the region's 29 countries, followed by drug use. The severity of the burden of HIV/AIDS in the Asia-Pacific region is increasing, especially among low SDI groups. Specific public health policies should be formulated based on the socioeconomic development level of each country to alleviate the burden of HIV/AIDS.

What Is the Potential Value of a Randomized Trial of Different Thresholds to Initiate Invasive Ventilation? A Health Economic Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the expected value of undertaking a future randomized controlled trial of thresholds used to initiate invasive ventilation compared with usual care in hypoxemic respiratory failure. PERSPECTIVE: Publicly funded healthcare payer. SETTING: Critical care units capable of providing invasive ventilation and unconstrained by resource limitations during usual (nonpandemic) practice. METHODS: We performed a model-based cost-utility estimation with individual-level simulation and value-of-information analysis focused on adults, admitted to critical care, receiving noninvasive oxygen. In the primary scenario, we compared hypothetical threshold A to usual care, where threshold A resulted in increased use of invasive ventilation and improved survival compared with usual care. In the secondary scenario, we compared hypothetical threshold B to usual care, where threshold B resulted in decreased use of invasive ventilation and similar survival compared with usual care. We assumed a willingness-to-pay of 100,000 Canadian dollars (CADs) per quality-adjusted life year. RESULTS: In the primary scenario, threshold A was cost-effective compared with usual care due to improved hospital survival (78.1% vs. 75.1%), despite more use of invasive ventilation (62% vs. 30%) and higher lifetime costs (86,900 vs. 75,500 CAD). In the secondary scenario, threshold B was cost-effective compared with usual care due to similar survival (74.5% vs. 74.6%) with less use of invasive ventilation (20.2% vs. 27.6%) and lower lifetime costs (71,700 vs. 74,700 CAD). Value-of-information analysis showed that the expected value to Canadian society over 10 years of a 400-person randomized trial comparing a threshold for invasive ventilation to usual care in hypoxemic respiratory failure was 1.35 billion CAD or more in both scenarios. CONCLUSIONS: It would be highly valuable to society to identify thresholds that, in comparison to usual care, either increase survival or reduce invasive ventilation without reducing survival.

The burden, causes, and determinants of blindness and vision impairment in Asia: An analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study.

Background: Asia accounts for more than half of the world's population and carries a substantial proportion of the global burden of blindness and vision impairment. Characterising this burden, as well as its causes and determinants, could help with devising targeted interventions for reducing the occurrence of blindness and visual impairment. Methods: Using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 database, we retrieved data on the number of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs); crude and age-standardised rates; and the prevalence (with 95% uncertainty intervals (95%UIs)) of blindness and vision loss due to six causes (age-related macular degeneration, cataracts, glaucoma, near-vision impairment, refractive error, and other vision loss) for Asian countries for the period between 1990 and 2019. We defined DALYs as the sum of the years lost due to disability and years of life lost, and calculated age-standardised figures for the number of DALYs and prevalence by adjusting for population size and age structure. We then evaluated the time trend of the disease burden and conducted subgroup analyses by gender, age, geographic locations, and socio-demographic index (SDI). Results: In 2019, the DALYs and prevalence of blindness and vision loss had risen by 90.1% and 116% compared with 1990, reaching 15.84 million DALYs (95% UI = 15.83, 15.85) and 506.71 million cases (95% UI = 506.68, 506.74). Meanwhile, the age-standardised rate of DALYs decreased from 1990 to 2019. Cataracts, refractive error, and near vision impairment were the three most common causes. South Asia had the heaviest regional disease burden (age-standardised rate of DALYs = 517 per 100 000 population; 95% UI = 512, 521). Moreover, the burden due to cataracts ranked high in most Asian populations. Being a woman; being older; and having a lower national SDI were factors associated with a greater vision loss burden. Conclusions: The burden due to vision loss remains high in Asian populations. Cataracts, refractive error, and near vision loss were the primary causes of blindness and vision loss. Greater investment in ocular disease prevention and care by countries with lower socioeconomic status is needed, as well as specific strategies targeting cataract management, women and the elderly.