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1.
Transpl Int ; 37: 12227, 2024.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39131790

ABSTRACT

Uncertainties on the intensive care unit (ICU) regarding the eligibility of a patient to be a potential deceased organ donor may prevent their referral and enrolment in the pathway for organ donation. Healthcare staff may exclude potential donors for medical reasons, which are no longer applicable. Hence, Swisstransplant implemented a digital donor evaluation tool (DET) in 2021, which allows the local hospital's organ donation coordinator to send a direct request to medical advisors (MA) of the organ procurement organization before excluding potential donors. All 156 requests entered in 2022 were analyzed. 117 patients (75.0%) were primarily accepted by the MA as potential donors. Of those 60 patients (51.3%) became actual organ donors. Main reasons for using the DET were questions regarding malignancies (n = 33, 21.2%), infectious diseases (n = 35, 22.4%) and age/co-morbidities (n = 34, 21.8%). The average age of the actual "DET donor" compared to the regularly enrolled, actual "Non-DET donor" was 65.3 ± 15.8 vs. 56.8 ± 17.5 years, respectively (p = 0.008). On average 1.9 ± 1.1 organs compared to 3.2 ± 1.3 organs were retrieved from DET vs. Non-DET donors. In summary, this new digital donor evaluation tool supports reporting and facilitates eligibility decisions in uncertain, complex donor cases, potentially increasing the number of organ donations.


Subject(s)
Intensive Care Units , Tissue Donors , Tissue and Organ Procurement , Humans , Middle Aged , Male , Female , Aged , Tissue and Organ Procurement/methods , Adult , Donor Selection/methods , Organ Transplantation
2.
HLA ; 104(1): e15610, 2024 Jul.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39041299

ABSTRACT

Despite over 41 million registered potential volunteer stem cell donors worldwide, many patients in need of a transplant do not find an HLA-matched unrelated donor or cord blood units, with the respective odds differing significantly between various populations. In this study, we analysed data of 2205 unsuccessful real-life donor searches sent to the DKMS Registry to identify populations in which further donor recruitment would be associated with particularly large patient benefits. For that purpose, we estimated haplotype frequencies of 67 donor populations at various sample sizes and entered them into two different mathematical models. These models assessed patient benefits from population-specific donor recruitment, operationalised by the number of originally unsuccessful searches that may become successful due to new donors. Consistently, across the different mathematical models and sample sizes, we obtained several countries from East and Southeast Asia (Thailand, Vietnam, China, and the Philippines) and the population of Asians in the USA as countries/populations where donor recruitment activities would be particularly beneficial for patients. We also identified various countries in Southeast and Central Europe as possible target regions for donor recruitment with above-average patient benefits. The results presented are registry-specific in the sense that they were obtained by optimising unsuccessful searches that had been sent to the DKMS Registry. Therefore, it would be desirable to apply the presented methods to a global data set that includes all unsuccessful stem cell donor searches worldwide and uses population-specific haplotype frequencies based on all donors available in the WMDA Search & Match Service.


Subject(s)
Haplotypes , Histocompatibility Testing , Registries , Humans , Histocompatibility Testing/methods , Tissue Donors , Donor Selection/methods , Unrelated Donors , Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation , Gene Frequency , HLA Antigens/genetics , Europe , United States
3.
S Afr Med J ; 114(3b): e1328, 2024 Apr 24.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39041446

ABSTRACT

Extended-criteria donors (ECDs) are seen as a means of addressing the shortfall in solid-organ availability for transplant. However, the use of ECD kidneys is associated with a greater risk of primary non-function compared with standard-criteria donor kidneys, and a higher discard rate has been described internationally. There seems to be a lack of consensus in the consideration of ECD kidneys for transplant, with reliance often placed on the subjective assessment of individual clinicians. The following case examines the difference in the institutional decision-making process applied to two kidneys from a single donor, and provides an argument for the use of hypothermic machine perfusion in low- to middle-income countries as an efficacious and objective means of assessing ECD kidney suitability.


Subject(s)
Kidney Transplantation , Humans , South Africa , Perfusion/methods , Male , Tissue and Organ Procurement/methods , Adult , Tissue Donors , Donor Selection/methods , Organ Preservation/methods , Female , Middle Aged , Kidney/blood supply
4.
Blood ; 144(3): 248-249, 2024 Jul 18.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39023876
5.
Transfus Med Rev ; 38(3): 150835, 2024 Jul.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39059853

ABSTRACT

Hepatitis E virus (HEV) is the most common cause of acute viral hepatitis in the world and can lead to severe complications in immunocompromised individuals. HEV is primarily transmitted through eating pork, which has led to an increased in anti-HEV IgG seropositivity in the general population of Europe in particular. However, it can also be transmitted intravenously, such as through transfusions. The growing evidence of HEV contamination of blood products and documented cases of transmission have given rise to practice changes and blood product screening of HEV in many European countries. This review covers the abundant European literature and focuses on the most recent data pertaining to the prevalence of HEV RNA positivity and IgG seropositivity in the North American general population and in blood products from Canada and the United States. Currently, Health Canada and the Food and Drug Administration do not require testing of HEV in blood products. For this reason, awareness among blood product prescribers about the possibility of HEV transmission through blood products is crucial. However, we also demonstrate that the province of Quebec has a prevalence of anti-HEV and HEV RNA positivity similar to some European countries. In light of this, we believe that HEV RNA blood donation screening be reevaluated with the availability of more cost-effective assays.


Subject(s)
Blood Donors , Donor Selection , Hepatitis E virus , Hepatitis E , Humans , Hepatitis E/epidemiology , Hepatitis E/diagnosis , Hepatitis E/transmission , Canada/epidemiology , United States/epidemiology , Hepatitis E virus/isolation & purification , Hepatitis E virus/immunology , Donor Selection/methods , RNA, Viral/blood , Mass Screening/methods , Prevalence , Hepatitis Antibodies/blood , Blood Safety , Immunoglobulin G/blood , Blood Donation
6.
Surgery ; 176(3): 934-941, 2024 Sep.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38902125

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The scarcity of available liver grafts necessitates the use of organs from extended criteria donors, a practice associated with an increased risk of graft failure. A notable percentage of deceased donor liver allografts are rejected due to subjective criteria. Normothermic machine perfusion holds promise for introducing objective parameters into this decision-making process. The aim of this study was to compare the outcomes of standard criteria and extended criteria donor allografts after liver transplantation, following viability assessment, using normothermic machine perfusion. METHODS: Liver allografts preserved by normothermic machine perfusion before liver transplantation at the University Hospital of Münster were retrospectively analyzed. Organs were stratified according to the Eurotransplant Donor Risk Index. In total, 101 liver grafts were included in this study and divided into 2 groups: (1) standard criteria donors with a Donor Risk Index <1.8 (DRI-low) and (2) extended criteria donors with a Donor Risk Index ≥1.8 (DRI-high). RESULTS: An increased risk profile of donor livers, as assessed by the Eurotransplant Donor Risk Index, did not correlate with patient or graft survival. High-risk liver grafts were effectively transplanted into recipients with different risk levels after viability assessment by normothermic machine perfusion. However, the recipients' model for end-stage liver disease scores showed a significant association with both overall patient and graft survival. CONCLUSION: The use of normothermic machine perfusion for viability assessment allows safe transplantation of high-risk donor livers and effectively addresses the disparity between donor liver availability and transplantation demand.


Subject(s)
Graft Survival , Liver Transplantation , Organ Preservation , Perfusion , Liver Transplantation/methods , Humans , Perfusion/methods , Male , Middle Aged , Female , Retrospective Studies , Adult , Organ Preservation/methods , Tissue Donors , Donor Selection/methods , Donor Selection/standards , Aged , Risk Assessment
8.
Pediatr Transplant ; 28(4): e14779, 2024 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38766997

ABSTRACT

Transplantation remains the gold-standard treatment for pediatric end-stage kidney disease. While living donor transplant is the preferred option for most pediatric patients, it is not the right choice for all. For those who have the option to choose between deceased donor and living donor transplantation, or from among multiple potential living donors, the transplant clinician must weigh multiple dynamic factors to identify the most optimal donor. This review will cover the key considerations when choosing between potential living donors and will propose a decision-making algorithm.


Subject(s)
Kidney Failure, Chronic , Kidney Transplantation , Living Donors , Humans , Kidney Transplantation/methods , Kidney Failure, Chronic/surgery , Child , Decision Making , Donor Selection/methods , Clinical Decision-Making , Algorithms
9.
Transfusion ; 64(6): 1016-1024, 2024 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38693096

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Acutely highlighted during the COVID-19 pandemic, the tenuousness of the blood supply continues to be a lynchpin of the most important medical procedures. Online advertisements have become a mainstay in donor recruitment. We set out to determine the effectiveness of online search ads and variations thereof on blood donations with an emphasis on first-time donors. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: From September 01, 2022 through March 31, 2023, we performed a campaign comparison experiment through a major search-ads platform with two distinct messages: one altruistic ("Altruistic") and one with a prospect of rewards ("Promotion"). We developed a method to track donation outcomes and associated them with impressions, click-throughs, and conversions. We compared the performance of the Altruistic and Promotion arms to a control group that was not associated with any search-ads ("Baseline"). RESULTS: Analyzing 34,157 donations during the study period, the Promotion group, and not Altruistic, had a significant difference of first-time donors over Baseline (24% vs. 12%, p = 7e-6). We analyzed 49,305 appointments and discovered that appointments made from the Altruistic arm resulted in a significantly higher percentage of donations when compared to Baseline (57% vs. 53%, p = .009); however, the Promotion group had a higher percentage of donations from first-time donors when compared to Baseline (12% vs. 8%, p = .006). CONCLUSION: We developed a method for determining the effectiveness of online search ads on donation outcomes. Rewards/promotions messaging was most effective at recruiting first-time donors. Our methodology is generalizable to different blood centers to explore messaging effectiveness among their unique communities.


Subject(s)
Advertising , Altruism , Blood Donors , COVID-19 , Humans , Advertising/methods , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , Female , Male , SARS-CoV-2 , Pandemics , Internet , Adult , Donor Selection/methods
10.
Vox Sang ; 119(7): 656-663, 2024 Jul.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38616552

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: An increasing number of blood operators around the world, including those in Canada, have removed time-based deferral periods for gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men and replaced them with sexual behaviour-based questions for all donors. While this marks a significant shift in screening approach, what remains unclear is how members of two-spirit, lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and queer (2S/LGBTQ+) communities view blood operators' initiatives to be more inclusive. As such, this study was conducted to assess the awareness of donor screening changes and other initiatives among members of 2S/LGBTQ+ communities and to explore their recommendations for blood operators' work with these communities. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Semi-structured qualitative interviews (n = 15) were conducted with 2S/LGBTQ+ people across Canada. Data were analysed using open inductive coding methods. RESULTS: Reported here are the key results on recommendations for blood operators. Three themes were identified from the data: (1) the need for increased communications with 2S/LGBTQ+ communities surrounding changes to donor policies and guidelines; (2) the need for trans-inclusive policy and procedures; and (3) the need for culturally responsive and equity-informed staff training at donor centres. CONCLUSION: Results suggest that blood operators should consider 2S/LGTBQ+ communities when developing blood and plasma donation policies, screening procedures and staff training. Increased consultation with these communities is desired, and further research specific to the experiences of transgender blood donors is needed.


Subject(s)
Blood Donors , Humans , Male , Canada , Female , Sexual and Gender Minorities , Adult , Transgender Persons , Qualitative Research , Middle Aged , Donor Selection/methods , Donor Selection/standards , Blood Donation
11.
Vox Sang ; 119(7): 758-763, 2024 Jul.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38637123

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Personalized donation strategies based on haemoglobin (Hb) prediction models may reduce Hb deferrals and hence costs of donation, meanwhile improving commitment of donors. We previously found that prediction models perform better in validation data with a high Hb deferral rate. We therefore investigate how Hb deferral prediction models perform when exchanged with other blood establishments. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Donation data from the past 5 years from random samples of 10,000 donors from Australia, Belgium, Finland, the Netherlands and South Africa were used to fit random forest models for Hb deferral prediction. Trained models were exchanged between blood establishments. Model performance was evaluated using the area under the precision-recall curve (AUPR). Variable importance was assessed using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values. RESULTS: Across the validation datasets and exchanged models, the AUPR ranged from 0.05 to 0.43. Exchanged models performed similarly within validation datasets, irrespective of the origin of the training data. Apart from subtle differences, the importance of most predictor variables was similar in all trained models. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that Hb deferral prediction models trained in different blood establishments perform similarly within different validation datasets, regardless of the deferral rate of their training data. Models learn similar associations in different blood establishments.


Subject(s)
Blood Donors , Hemoglobins , Machine Learning , Humans , Hemoglobins/analysis , Female , Male , Donor Selection/methods , Adult , Australia , Belgium
12.
Microbes Infect ; 26(5-6): 105341, 2024.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38679228

ABSTRACT

Fecal microbiota transplantation (FMT) is effective against recurrent Clostridioides difficile infection (rCDI), but its safety is jeopardized by the potential transmission of pathogens, so international guidelines recommend either a quarantine or a direct stool testing. Whereas reports of the quarantine-based approach are emerging, data on the direct testing-based approach are not available. Our aim is to report outcomes of a donor screening framework for FMT including direct stool testing. In this prospective cohort study, all donor candidates recruited at our FMT centre underwent a four-step screening process to be enrolled as actual donors. Each collected stool donation was then evaluated with a direct stool testing including a molecular assay for gut pathogens and a culture assay for multi-drug resistant organisms (MDRO). From January 2019 to June 2023, 72 of 227 candidates (32%) were considered eligible and provided 277 stool donations. Ninety-nine donations (36%) were discarded for positivity to intestinal pathogens, most commonly enteropathogenic Escherichia coli (n = 37) and Blastocystis hominis (n = 20). Overall, 337 stool aliquots were obtained from 165 approved donations. All suspensions were used for patients with rCDI, and no serious adverse events or clinically evident infections were observed at 12 weeks after procedures. In our study, screening of donor faeces including direct stool testing led to the discard of a considerable rate of stool donations but was also extremely safe. This approach may represent a reliable strategy to guarantee the safety of FMT programs, especially in countries with high prevalence of MDRO.


Subject(s)
Clostridium Infections , Donor Selection , Fecal Microbiota Transplantation , Feces , Humans , Fecal Microbiota Transplantation/methods , Prospective Studies , Feces/microbiology , Feces/parasitology , Female , Male , Middle Aged , Clostridium Infections/diagnosis , Clostridium Infections/therapy , Clostridium Infections/microbiology , Donor Selection/methods , Aged , Adult , Clostridioides difficile/isolation & purification , Gastrointestinal Microbiome
13.
J Crohns Colitis ; 18(9): 1381-1393, 2024 Sep 03.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38572716

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Faecal microbiota transplantation [FMT] shows some efficacy in treating patients with ulcerative colitis [UC], although variability has been observed among donors and treatment regimens. We investigated the effect of FMT using rationally selected donors after pretreatment with budesonide or placebo in active UC. METHODS: Patients ≥18 years old with mild to moderate active UC were randomly assigned to 3 weeks of budesonide [9 mg] or placebo followed by 4-weekly infusions of a donor faeces suspension. Two donors were selected based on microbiota composition, regulatory T cell induction and short-chain fatty acid production in mice. The primary endpoint was engraftment of donor microbiota after FMT. In addition, clinical efficacy was assessed. RESULTS: In total, 24 patients were enrolled. Pretreatment with budesonide did not increase donor microbiota engraftment [p = 0.56] nor clinical response, and engraftment was not associated with clinical response. At week 14, 10/24 [42%] patients achieved [partial] remission. Remarkably, patients treated with FMT suspensions from one donor were associated with clinical response [80% of responders, p < 0.05] but had lower overall engraftment of donor microbiota. Furthermore, differences in the taxonomic composition of the donors and the engraftment of certain taxa were associated with clinical response. CONCLUSION: In this small study, pretreatment with budesonide did not significantly influence engraftment or clinical response after FMT. However, clinical response appeared to be donor-dependent. Response to FMT may be related to transfer of specific strains instead of overall engraftment, demonstrating the need to characterize mechanisms of actions of strains that maximize therapeutic benefit in UC.


Subject(s)
Budesonide , Colitis, Ulcerative , Fecal Microbiota Transplantation , Humans , Fecal Microbiota Transplantation/methods , Budesonide/therapeutic use , Budesonide/administration & dosage , Colitis, Ulcerative/therapy , Colitis, Ulcerative/microbiology , Female , Male , Adult , Pilot Projects , Middle Aged , Treatment Outcome , Gastrointestinal Microbiome/drug effects , Double-Blind Method , Donor Selection/methods , Anti-Inflammatory Agents/therapeutic use , Feces/microbiology
14.
Vox Sang ; 119(7): 745-751, 2024 Jul.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38516962

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Nucleic acid-amplification testing (NAT) is used for screening blood donations/donors for blood-borne viruses. We reviewed global viral NAT characteristics and NAT-yield confirmatory testing used by blood operators. MATERIALS AND METHODS: NAT characteristics and NAT-yield confirmatory testing used during 2019 was surveyed internationally by the International Society of Blood Transfusion Working Party Transfusion-Transmitted Infectious Diseases. Reported characteristics are presented herein. RESULTS: NAT was mainly performed under government mandate. Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis C virus (HCV) and hepatitis B virus (HBV) NAT was performed on all donors and donation types, while selective testing was reported for West Nile virus, hepatitis E virus (HEV), and Zika virus. Individual donation NAT was used for HIV, HCV and HBV by ~50% of responders, while HEV was screened in mini-pools by 83% of responders performing HEV NAT. Confirmatory testing for NAT-yield samples was generally performed by NAT on a sample from the same donation or by NAT and serology on samples from the same donation and a follow-up sample. CONCLUSION: In the last decade, there has been a trend towards use of smaller pool sizes or individual donation NAT. We captured characteristics of NAT internationally in 2019 and provide insights into confirmatory testing approaches used for NAT-yields, potentially benefitting blood operators seeking to implement NAT.


Subject(s)
Blood Donors , Nucleic Acid Amplification Techniques , Humans , Nucleic Acid Amplification Techniques/methods , Blood-Borne Infections , Donor Selection/methods
17.
Vox Sang ; 119(5): 447-459, 2024 May.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38419267

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Exclusion of blood donors with hepatitis B virus (HBV) core antibodies (anti-HBc) prevents transfusion-transmitted HBV infection but can lead to significant donor loss. As isolated anti-HBc positivity does not always indicate true past HBV infection, we have investigated the effectiveness of confirmatory anti-HBc testing and the representation of rare blood groups in anti-HBc-positive donors. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Three hundred ninety-seven HBV surface antigen-negative and anti-HBc initially reactive blood donor samples were tested by five different anti-HBc assays. RESULTS: Eighty percentage of samples reactive in Architect anti-HBc assay were positive by the Murex assay and anti-HBc neutralization. Eleven out of 397 samples showed discordant results in supplementary testing from the Murex confirmatory test result, and five remained undetermined following extensive serological testing. Thirty-eight percentage of anti-HBc-positive donors identified as minority ethnic groups compared with 11% representation in anti-HBc-negative donors (p < 0.0001); the frequency of the Ro blood group in anti-HBc-positive donors was 18 times higher in non-white ethnic groups. CONCLUSION: Using two anti-HBc assays effectively enabled the identification of HBV-exposed and potentially infectious donors, their deferral and potential clinical follow-up. However, the exclusion of confirmed anti-HBc-positive donors will still impact the supply of rare blood such as Ro.


Subject(s)
Blood Donors , Hepatitis B Antibodies , Hepatitis B Core Antigens , Hepatitis B virus , Hepatitis B , Humans , Hepatitis B Antibodies/blood , Hepatitis B/blood , Hepatitis B/prevention & control , Female , Hepatitis B Core Antigens/immunology , Hepatitis B Core Antigens/blood , Male , Hepatitis B virus/immunology , Donor Selection/methods , Blood Group Antigens/immunology , Blood Donation
18.
Kidney Int ; 105(2): 240-242, 2024 Feb.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38245212

ABSTRACT

There is a worldwide shortage of deceased-donor kidneys available for transplantation, with too many patients dying while on waiting lists for organs. Meanwhile, and particularly in the United States, many recovered kidneys are discarded, often based on results of frozen section evaluation of a screening biopsy read by an on-call pathologist with limited renal pathology experience. A study in this month's issue of Kidney International uses an artificial intelligence-based approach to evaluate these biopsies, which not only improved correlation between biopsy findings and short-to-intermediate term graft survival, but also demonstrated the potential to reduce biopsy-associated organ discard rates by 25% to 30%.


Subject(s)
Kidney Transplantation , Tissue and Organ Procurement , Humans , United States , Kidney Transplantation/adverse effects , Kidney Transplantation/methods , Frozen Sections , Artificial Intelligence , Donor Selection/methods , Tissue Donors , Kidney/pathology , Biopsy , Graft Survival
19.
Surv Ophthalmol ; 69(3): 465-482, 2024.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38199504

ABSTRACT

The cornea is the most frequently transplanted human tissue, and corneal transplantation represents the most successful allogeneic transplant worldwide. In order to obtain good surgical outcome and visual rehabilitation and to ensure the safety of the recipient, accurate screening of donors and donor tissues is necessary throughout the process. This mitigates the risks of transmission to the recipient, including infectious diseases and environmental contaminants, and ensures high optical and functional quality of the tissues. The process can be divided into 3 stages: (1) donor evaluation and selection before tissue harvest performed by the retrieval team, (2) tissue analysis during the storage phase conducted by the eye bank technicians after the retrieval, and, (3) tissue quality checks undertaken by the surgeons in the operating room before transplantation. Although process improvements over the years have greatly enhanced safety, quality, and outcome of the corneal transplants, a lack of standardization between centers during certain phases of the process still remains, and may impact on the quality and number of transplanted corneas. Here we detail the donor screening process for the retrieval teams, eye bank operators. and ophthalmic surgeons and examine the limitations associated with each of these stages.


Subject(s)
Corneal Transplantation , Eye Banks , Quality Assurance, Health Care , Tissue Donors , Humans , Corneal Transplantation/methods , Corneal Transplantation/standards , Eye Banks/standards , Donor Selection/standards , Donor Selection/methods , Cornea , Tissue and Organ Procurement/standards , Corneal Diseases/surgery
20.
Liver Transpl ; 30(7): 689-698, 2024 Jul 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38265295

ABSTRACT

Given liver transplantation organ scarcity, selection of recipients and donors to maximize post-transplant benefit is paramount. Several scores predict post-transplant outcomes by isolating elements of donor and recipient risk, including the donor risk index, Balance of Risk, pre-allocation score to predict survival outcomes following liver transplantation/survival outcomes following liver transplantation (SOFT), improved donor-to-recipient allocation score for deceased donors only/improved donor-to-recipient allocation score for both deceased and living donors (ID2EAL-D/-DR), and survival benefit (SB) models. No studies have examined the performance of these models over time, which is critical in an ever-evolving transplant landscape. This was a retrospective cohort study of liver transplantation events in the UNOS database from 2002 to 2021. We used Cox regression to evaluate model discrimination (Harrell's C) and calibration (testing of calibration curves) for post-transplant patient and graft survival at specified post-transplant timepoints. Sub-analyses were performed in the modern transplant era (post-2014) and for key donor-recipient characteristics. A total of 112,357 transplants were included. The SB and SOFT scores had the highest discrimination for short-term patient and graft survival, including in the modern transplant era, where only the SB model had good discrimination (C ≥ 0.60) for all patient and graft outcome timepoints. However, these models had evidence of poor calibration at 3- and 5-year patient survival timepoints. The ID2EAL-DR score had lower discrimination but adequate calibration at all patient survival timepoints. In stratified analyses, SB and SOFT scores performed better in younger (< 40 y) and higher Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (≥ 25) patients. All prediction scores had declining discrimination over time, and scores relying on donor factors alone had poor performance. Although the SB and SOFT scores had the best overall performance, all models demonstrated declining performance over time. This underscores the importance of periodically updating and/or developing new prediction models to reflect the evolving transplant field. Scores relying on donor factors alone do not meaningfully inform post-transplant risk.


Subject(s)
End Stage Liver Disease , Graft Survival , Liver Transplantation , Humans , Liver Transplantation/adverse effects , Retrospective Studies , Female , Male , Middle Aged , Risk Assessment/statistics & numerical data , Risk Assessment/methods , End Stage Liver Disease/surgery , End Stage Liver Disease/mortality , End Stage Liver Disease/diagnosis , Adult , Risk Factors , Time Factors , Living Donors/statistics & numerical data , Donor Selection/standards , Donor Selection/methods , Donor Selection/statistics & numerical data , Aged , Proportional Hazards Models , Tissue and Organ Procurement/statistics & numerical data , Tissue and Organ Procurement/methods , Tissue and Organ Procurement/standards , Treatment Outcome , Tissue Donors/statistics & numerical data , Databases, Factual/statistics & numerical data
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