Temporal trends in female firearm homicides across states in the Northeast of Brazil during the period 2000-2019. / Tendência temporal da mortalidade por homicídios femininos por arma de fogo nos estados da região Nordeste do Brasil no período 2000-2019.

This article aims to analyze temporal trends in female firearm homicides in the Northeast of Brazil during the period 2000-2019. We conducted an ecological study using data on firearm homicides of women aged 10 years and over obtained from the Mortality Information System. The population data were taken from the 2010 Census. Homicide rates were calculated after correcting the data to account for differences in the quality and coverage of death records. Trends were assessed using negative binomial regression and described using relative risk and p values. Average annual percentage changes in homicide rates were also calculated. The regional firearm homicide rate during the study period was 4.40 per 100,000 women. Rates were highest in the state of Alagoas (5.40), the 15-19 age group (5.84) and in public thoroughfares (1.58). Trends were upward across all states except Pernambuco, where they were downward, and Alagoas, where rates were stationary. The place of occurrence with the highest percentage increase in firearm homicides over the study period was public thoroughfares. Female firearm homicides showed an upward trend across most northeastern states.

O objetivo deste artigo é analisar a tendência temporal dos homicídios femininos perpetrados por arma de fogo nos estados nordestinos, no período de 2000 a 2019. Estudo ecológico, com dados de homicídios por arma de fogo em mulheres com 10 ou mais anos, registrados no Sistema de Informação Sobre Mortalidade. Os dados de mortalidade e os dados populacionais foram obtidos junto ao Departamento de Informática do Sistema Único de Saúde. Após a correção dos registros de óbito para qualidade e cobertura dos óbitos, as taxas de mortalidade foram calculadas Tendências foram avaliadas por regressão binomial negativa, classificadas de acordo com o valor do risco relativo e valor de p. Calculou-se a variação percentual anual média das taxas de mortalidade. A região apresentou 4,40 homicídios por arma de fogo por 100 mil mulheres no período do estudo, maiores coeficientes em Alagoas (5,40), na faixa etária de 15-19 anos (5,84), e via pública (1,58). As tendências foram ascendentes, com exceção de Pernambuco em que foi descendente, e estacionárias em Alagoas. Os homicídios por arma de fogo em via pública apresentaram maior percentual de aumento no período estudado. Observou-se tendência ascendente nos homicídios femininos perpetrados por arma de fogo na maioria dos estados nordestinos.

[Homicides in southern South American cities: educational inequalities and economic fluctuations]. / Homicidios en ciudades del sur de Sudamérica: desigualdades educativas y fluctuaciones económicas.

Information on how economic fluctuations affect educational inequalities in homicides in Latin America is scarce. This study aimed to: (a) analyze the temporal variations of educational inequalities related to homicide mortality and (b) compare these inequalities between years of economic growth and recession in southern South America cities from 2000 to 2019. Data from seven urban areas in three countries in the Southern Cone of South America were used: Mendoza and Rosario (Argentina); Belo Horizonte, Curitiba, Rio de Janeiro, and São Paulo (Brazil); and Santiago (Chile). Poisson models were estimated by using age, sex, city of residence, year of economic growth or recession, and schooling level as explanatory variables. Results showed significant differences in the temporal evolution of homicide rates in the seven cities, although populations with a low schooling level always showed the most vulnerability. The four Brazilian cities, analyzed together, showed greater educational inequalities related to homicides in years of economic recession when compared to those of economic growth. On the one hand, the indiscriminate use of force by the State against criminal groups seems to increase social inequality in homicide mortality. On the other hand, criminal fragmentation and economic crisis can exacerbate these inequalities by increasing territorial disputes between criminal groups.

Se sabe poco sobre cómo las fluctuaciones económicas afectan las desigualdades educativas en homicidios en países latinoamericanos. Los objetivos de este estudio fueron (a) analizar las variaciones temporales de las desigualdades relativas educacionales de la mortalidad por homicidio, y (b) comparar estas desigualdades entre años de crecimiento económico y años de recesión en ciudades del sur sudamericano durante el período 2000-2019. Se utilizaron datos de siete áreas urbanas, en tres países del Cono Sur Sudamericano: Mendoza y Rosario (Argentina); Belo Horizonte, Curitiba, Rio de Janeiro y São Paulo (Brasil); y Santiago (Chile). Se estimaron modelos de Poisson, utilizando como variables explicativas la edad, sexo, año, ciudad de residencia, año de expansión o recesión económica y nivel educativo. Encontramos diferencias marcadas en la evolución temporal de las tasas de homicidio entre las siete ciudades, aunque siempre las poblaciones de nivel educativo bajo fueron las más vulnerables. Las cuatro ciudades de Brasil, analizadas en conjunto, tuvieron desigualdades educativas relativas de homicidios mayores en años de recesión económica, con respecto a años de crecimiento económico. Por un lado, el uso de la fuerza indiscriminado por parte del Estado enfocado hacia grupos criminales parece haber llevado a una creciente desigualdad social de la mortalidad por homicidio. Por el otro, en un contexto de fragmentación criminal y crisis económica se podrían agravar estas desigualdades a través de mayores disputas territoriales entre grupos criminales.

São escassas as informações sobre como as flutuações econômicas afetam as desigualdades educacionais em homicídios na América Latina. Os objetivos deste estudo foram: (a) analisar as variações temporais das desigualdades educacionais relacionadas à mortalidade por homicídio, e (b) comparar essas desigualdades entre os anos de crescimento econômico e os anos de recessão nas cidades do sul da América do Sul no período de 2000 a 2019. Foram utilizados dados de sete áreas urbanas, em três países do Cone Sul da América do Sul: Mendoza e Rosário (Argentina); Belo Horizonte, Curitiba, Rio de Janeiro e São Paulo (Brasil); e Santiago (Chile). Os modelos de Poisson foram estimados utilizando como variáveis explicativas a idade, sexo, ano, cidade de residência, ano de expansão ou recessão econômica e nível de escolaridade. Os resultados mostraram diferenças significativas na evolução temporal das taxas de homicídio entre as sete cidades, apesar de que as populações com baixo nível de escolaridade sempre foram as mais vulneráveis. As quatro cidades brasileiras, analisadas em conjunto, apresentaram maiores desigualdades educacionais relacionadas a homicídios em anos de recessão econômica em relação aos anos de crescimento econômico. Por um lado, o uso indiscriminado da força pelo Estado contra grupos criminosos parece ter levado ao aumento da desigualdade social na mortalidade por homicídio. Por outro lado, em um contexto de fragmentação criminal e crise econômica, essas desigualdades podem ser exacerbadas pelo aumento das disputas territoriais entre grupos criminosos.

Firearm manufacturing and imports in the USA and their association to firearm homicides in Central America and the Caribbean, 1991-2019.

BACKGROUND: Firearm manufacturing and imports grew in the US during the mid-2000s. We hypothesise those increases corresponded to increased international firearms trafficking and in turn were associated with increases in firearm homicides abroad. METHODS: We used the Global Burden of Disease database to quantify annual firearm and non-firearm homicide rates in Central American and Caribbean countries, 1991-2019. We obtained US firearm manufacturing and import data from the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives. We used two-way fixed effects regressions to estimate within-country associations between homicide rates (firearm and non-firearm) and US firearm manufacturing and imports. FINDINGS: Firearm homicide rates in Central American and Caribbean countries increased from 8.38/100K population in 2004 to 17.55/100 K in 2012 and remained steady thereafter. Those surges coincided with increases in US firearm manufacturing/imports (from 4.99 million in 2004 to 13.12 million in 2012). Non-firearm homicides remained roughly constant from 1991 to 2019. Adjusted analysis showed that an annual increase of one million firearms manufactured/imported in the US corresponded to an annual increase of 1.42 (95% CI 0.62 to 2.21) firearm homicides per 100 K in Central American and Caribbean countries. The corresponding change for non-firearm homicides was -0.18 (95% CI -1.46 to 1.11). We found country-to-country variability in these effects. INTERPRETATION: Increases in US firearm manufacturing/imports were associated with increases in firearm homicide rates in Central American and Caribbean countries but not associated with non-firearm homicides. The specificity to firearm homicides suggests possible international repercussions of increased firearm manufacturing and imports in the US implications are discussed.

Time trend and spatial distribution of the cases of lethal violence against women in Brazil. / Tendência temporal e distribuição espacial dos casos de violência letal contra mulheres no Brasil.

OBJECTIVE: to analyze the time trend and the spatial distribution of the cases of lethal violence against women in Brazil, according to age group and to race/skin color. METHOD: an ecological study of time series, with spatial distribution of the deaths of women victims of aggression, registered in the Mortality Information System, resident in Brazil, Brazilian geographic regions and states. Due to underreporting of deaths in some states, correction factors of the mortality rates were employed. For the trend analysis, we adopted the polynomial regression model. In addition to that, the mean rates and annual upward/downward trends were distributed considering the Brazilian federative units as analysis units. RESULTS: the mean rate was 6.24 cases of lethal violence per 100,000 women, with a significant variation across the Brazilian regions and states. The main victims of violent death in Brazil are young, black-/brown-skinned and indigenous women, with a growing trend in these population segments. The North and Northeast regions stood out with the most significant mean annual increases (0.33; r2= 0.96 and 0.26; r2= 0.92, respectively). CONCLUSION: there was a stable trend regarding lethal violence against women, with significant regional differences. Young, black-/brown-skinned and indigenous women are more vulnerable to violent death in Brazil.

Tendência temporal e distribuição espacial dos casos de violência letal contra mulheres no Brasil / Time trend and spatial distribution of the cases of lethal violence against women in Brazil / Tendencia temporal y distribución espacial de los casos de violencia letal contra la mujer en Brasil

Resumo Objetivo: analisar a tendência temporal e a distribuição espacial dos casos de violência letal contra mulheres no Brasil, segundo faixa etária e raça/cor. Método: estudo ecológico, de séries temporais, com distribuição espacial dos óbitos de mulheres vítimas de agressão, cadastrados no Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade, residentes no Brasil, regiões geográficas e estados brasileiros. Devido ao sub-registro de óbitos em alguns estados, empregaram-se fatores de correção das taxas de mortalidade. Para a análise de tendência, adotamos o modelo de regressão polinomial. Além disso, as taxas médias e as tendências de aumento/reduções anuais foram distribuídas considerando como unidade de análise as unidades federativas do Brasil. Resultados: a taxa média foi de 6,24 casos de violência letal por 100 mil mulheres, com variação importante entre as regiões e os estados brasileiros. As principais vítimas de morte violenta no Brasil são mulheres jovens, pretas/pardas e indígenas, com tendência de crescimento nessas populações. As Regiões Norte e Nordeste se destacaram com os aumentos anuais médios mais expressivos (0,33; r2 = 0,96 e 0,26; r2 = 0,92, respectivamente). Conclusão: evidenciou-se tendência de estabilidade da violência letal contra a mulher, com diferenças regionais significativas. Mulheres jovens, pretas/pardas e indígenas são mais vulneráveis à morte violenta no Brasil.

Abstract Objective: to analyze the time trend and the spatial distribution of the cases of lethal violence against women in Brazil, according to age group and to race/skin color. Method: an ecological study of time series, with spatial distribution of the deaths of women victims of aggression, registered in the Mortality Information System, resident in Brazil, Brazilian geographic regions and states. Due to underreporting of deaths in some states, correction factors of the mortality rates were employed. For the trend analysis, we adopted the polynomial regression model. In addition to that, the mean rates and annual upward/downward trends were distributed considering the Brazilian federative units as analysis units. Results: the mean rate was 6.24 cases of lethal violence per 100,000 women, with a significant variation across the Brazilian regions and states. The main victims of violent death in Brazil are young, black-/brown-skinned and indigenous women, with a growing trend in these population segments. The North and Northeast regions stood out with the most significant mean annual increases (0.33; r2= 0.96 and 0.26; r2= 0.92, respectively). Conclusion: there was a stable trend regarding lethal violence against women, with significant regional differences. Young, black-/brown-skinned and indigenous women are more vulnerable to violent death in Brazil.

Resumen Objetivo: analizar la tendencia temporal y la distribución espacial de los casos de violencia letal contra la mujer en Brasil, según la franja etaria y la raza/color. Método: estudio ecológico, de las series temporales, con distribución espacial de las muertes de mujeres víctimas de agresión, registradas en el Sistema de Información de Mortalidad, residentes en Brasil, regiones geográficas y estados brasileños. Debido a que hay subregistro de las muertes en algunos estados, se utilizaron factores de corrección para las tasas de mortalidad. Para el análisis de tendencias, adoptamos el modelo de regresión polinomial. Además, las tasas medias y las tendencias anuales de aumento/disminución fueron distribuidas considerando como unidad de análisis las unidades federativas de Brasil. Resultados: la tasa promedio fue de 6,24 casos de violencia letal por cada 100.000 mujeres, con variación significativa entre regiones y estados brasileños. Las principales víctimas de muerte violenta en Brasil son mujeres jóvenes, negras/morenas e indígenas y la tendencia es creciente en estas poblaciones. Las regiones Norte y Noreste presentaron los aumentos medios anuales más significativos (0,33; r2 = 0,96 y 0,26; r2 = 0,92, respectivamente). Conclusión: hubo una tendencia a la estabilidad de la violencia letal contra la mujer, con diferencias regionales significativas. Las mujeres jóvenes, negras/morenas e indígenas son más vulnerables a la muerte violenta en Brasil.

Homicide Epidemic in Cali, Colombia: A Surveillance System Data Analysis, 1993‒2018.

Objectives. To examine homicide rates in Cali, Colombia, during the 1993-2018 period, using information derived from an interagency surveillance system. Methods. We used homicide data from Cali's Epidemiological Surveillance System to examine homicide trends by victim's age and sex, time, and type of method used. We estimated trend changes and the annual percentage changes using joinpoint regression analyses. Results. Homicide rates per 100 000 inhabitants dropped from 102 in 1993 to 47.8 in 2018. We observed reductions in homicide rates across age and sex groups. Most homicide victims were men aged 20 to 39 years from poor, marginalized areas. Firearms were used in 84.9% of all cases. The average annual percentage change for the entire period was -3.6 (95% confidence interval = -6.7, -0.4). Conclusions. Fluctuations in homicide rates in Cali show a clear epidemic pattern, occurring concurrently with the "crack epidemic" in different countries. Reliable and timely information provided by an Epidemiological Surveillance System allowed opportune formulation of public policies to reduce the impact of violence in Cali.

Tendência e diferenças regionais de homicídios masculinos por arma de fogo em um estado da Amazônia Legal, Brasil / Regional trends and differences in male homicides by firearms in a state in the Legal Amazon, Brazil Tendencias y diferencias regionales en los homicidios masculinos por armas de fuego en un estado de la Amazonia Legal, Brasil

Resumo: Objetivos: Analisar a tendência e projetar a taxa de homicídios por arma de fogo em homens jovens, segundo macrorregião de saúde, no estado de Mato Grosso, Brasil. Metodologia: Estudo ecológico, exploratório, de tendência temporal que utilizou dados do Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade. Taxas de mortalidade padronizada pela população mundial foram calculadas. Para modelagem da série e predição da taxa de homicídio por arma de fogo para o período de 2018 a 2022 utilizou-se o modelo auto regressivo de ordem um - AR (1). Resultados: A macrorregião Centro Norte apresentou as maiores taxas de mortalidade por arma de fogo na maior parte dos anos. A menor taxa do período ocorreu em 2013, na macrorregião Leste. Assim como todo o estado de Mato Grosso, as macrorregiões Norte, Oeste, Sul apresentaram tendência crescente e significativa, enquanto nas macrorregiões Leste, Centro Norte e Centro Noroeste as taxas se mantiveram estáveis. Conclusão: A mortalidade de jovens do sexo masculino por armas de fogo foi elevada especialmente nas macrorregiões mais urbanizadas, com conflitos agrários e região de fronteira. Se as estratégias não forem mudadas, as taxas de homicídios de homens jovens por armas de fogo no Mato Grosso continuarão altas e/ou crescentes.

Abstract: Objectives: To analyze the trend and project the firearm homicide rate in young men, according to the health macro-region, in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil. Methodology: Ecological, exploratory, time trend study that used data from the Mortality Information System. Mortality rates standardized by the world population were calculated. To model the series and predict the firearm homicide rate for the period from 2018 to 2022, the order one autoregressive model - AR (1) was used. Results: The Centro Norte macro-region had the highest firearm mortality rates in most years. The lowest rate in the period occurred in 2013, in the East macro-region. As with the entire state of Mato Grosso, the North, West, South macroregions showed an increasing and significant trend, while in the East, Central North and Central Northwest macroregions the rates remained stable. Conclusion:The mortality of young males by firearms was high especially in the most urbanized macro-regions, with agrarian conflicts and the border region. If the strategies are not changed, homicide rates of young men by firearms in Mato Grosso will continue to be high and/or increasing.

Resumen: Objetivos: Analizar la tendencia y proyectar la tasa de homicidios por arma de fuego en hombres jóvenes, según la macrorregión de salud, en el estado de Mato Grosso, Brasil. Metodología: Estudio ecológico, exploratorio, de tendencia temporal que utilizó datos del Sistema de Información de Mortalidad. Se calcularon las tasas de mortalidad estandarizadas por la población mundial. Para modelar la serie y predecir la tasa de homicidios por arma de fuego para el período de 2018 a 2022, se utilizó el modelo autoregresivo de orden uno: AR (1). Resultados: La macrorregión Centro Norte tuvo las tasas de mortalidad por armas de fuego más altas en la mayoría de los años. La tasa más baja del período se produjo en 2013, en la macrorregión Este. Al igual que en todo el estado de Mato Grosso, las macrorregiones Norte, Oeste y Sur mostraron una tendencia creciente y significativa, mientras que en las macrorregiones Este, Centro Norte y Centro Noroeste las tasas se mantuvieron estables. Conclusión: La mortalidad de varones jóvenes por armas de fuego fue alta especialmente en las macrorregiones más urbanizadas, con conflictos agrarios y la región fronteriza. Si no se cambian las estrategias, las tasas de homicidio de hombres jóvenes por armas de fuego en Mato Grosso seguirán siendo altas y/o en aumento.

Variation in Non-external and External Causes of Death in Peru in Relation to the COVID-19 Lockdown.

Introduction: Lockdowns are designed to slow COVID-19 transmission, but they may have unanticipated relationships with other aspects of public health. Assessing the overall pattern in population health as a country implements and relaxes a lockdown is relevant, as these patterns may not necessarily be symmetric. We aimed to estimate the changing trends in cause-specific mortality in relation to the 2020 COVID-19 related lockdowns in Peru. Methods: Based on data from the Peruvian National Death Information System (SINADEF), we calculated death rates per 10 million population to assess the trends in mortality rates for non-external and external causes of death (suicides, traffic accidents, and homicides). We compared these trends to 2018-2019, before, during, and after the lockdown, stratified by sex, and adjusted by Peruvian macro-region (Lima & Callao (capital region), Coast, Highland, and Jungle). Results: Non-external deaths presented a distinctive pattern among macro-regions, with an early surge in the Jungle and a later increase in the Highland. External deaths dropped during the lockdown, however, suicides and homicides returned to previous levels in the post-lockdown period. Deaths due to traffic accidents dropped during the lockdown and returned to pre-pandemic levels by December 2020. Conclusions: We found a sudden drop in external causes of death, with suicides and homicides returning to previous levels after the lifting of the lockdown. Non-external deaths showed a differential pattern by macro-region. A close monitoring of these trends could help identify early spikes among these causes of death and take action to prevent a further increase in mortality indirectly affected by the pandemic.

Epidemiological profile of female firearm-related mortality.

ABSTRACT: The mortality rate of women due to firearms increases every day in Brazil and globally. This study aimed to evaluate the trends of firearm-related mortality in women from the years 2007 to 2016 in order to determine their profile and to associate these indicators with public policy and strategies to reduce mortality.This is an ecological time-series study using secondary data of women aged 10 to 49 years old collected through the mortality information system (SIM) in Brazil. Furthermore, independent characteristics such as education, color, race and civil status were also collected from SIM. Data was analyzed using the Join Point open source software version.There was an increase in the mortality rate of women who received 4 to the 7 years of education, were single, and brown-skinned. There was a significantly increased rate of mortality in women whose ages ranged from 20 to 29 years followed by 30 to 39 years; the rate was also significantly higher in the northeast region followed by the southeast region.There is a need for professional training to assist women in vulnerable situations.

Homicídios intencionais de mulheres com notificação prévia de violência / Homicidios intencionales de mujeres con notificación previa de violencia / Intentional homicides of women with prior notification of violence

Resumo Objetivo Descrever o perfil das mulheres vítimas de homicídios intencionais e com notificação prévia de violência. Métodos Trata-se de um estudo transversal, realizado no estado de Pernambuco, no período de 2012 a 2016. Foi empregado o relacionamento probabilístico entre todas as notificações de violência contra mulher, registradas no Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação, e os homicídios de mulheres, registrados no Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade. Resultados Identificou-se 121 homicídios que tinham notificações prévias de violência. As mulheres eram solteiras (88,9%), negras (91,7%) e com menos de sete anos de estudo (80,9%). A agressão física foi o tipo de violência mais notificado (65,8%), ocorrida na residência (66,7%) e cometida por parceiro/ex-parceiro íntimo (51,9%). O disparo de arma de fogo foi o principal meio utilizado (44,6%) e o óbito ocorreu em estabelecimento de saúde (41,3%). Mulheres com notificação prévia de violência tiveram risco 65,9 vezes maior de homicídio, quando comparadas com a população geral de mulheres. Conclusão Descrever o perfil das mulheres vítimas de homicídios, com notificação de violência prévia, pode contribuir para a formulação de políticas públicas de proteção e prevenção da violência contra mulher.

Resumen Objetivo Describir el perfil de mujeres víctimas de homicidios intencionales con notificación previa de violencia. Métodos Se trata de un estudio transversal, realizado en el estado de Pernambuco, en el período de 2012 a 2016. Se empleó la relación probabilística entre todas las notificaciones de violencia contra la mujer registradas en el Sistema de Información de Agravios de Notificación y los homicidios de mujeres registrados en el Sistema de Información sobre Mortalidad. Resultados Se identificaron 121 homicidios que tenían notificaciones previas de violencia. Las mujeres eran solteras (88,9 %), negras (91,7 %) y con menos de siete años de estudios (80,9 %). La agresión física fue el tipo de violencia más notificado (65,8 %), ocurrida en la residencia (66,7 %) y cometida por la pareja/expareja íntima (51,9 %). El disparo de arma de fuego fue el principal medio utilizado (44,6 %) y la muerte ocurrió en un establecimiento de salud (41,3 %). Mujeres con notificación previa de violencia tuvieron un riesgo de homicidio 65,9 veces mayor, en comparación con la población general de mujeres. Conclusión Describir el perfil de mujeres víctimas de homicidios con notificación de violencia previa puede contribuir a la formulación de políticas públicas de protección y prevención de la violencia contra la mujer.

Abstract Objective To describe the profile of women victims of intentional homicides and with prior notification of violence. Methods This is a cross-sectional study carried out in the state of Pernambuco from 2012 to 2016. Probabilistic relationship was used between all notifications of violence against women registered in the Information System for Notifiable Diseases, and the homicides of women, registered in the Mortality Information System. Results 121 homicides were identified with previous reports of violence. Women were single (88.9%), black (91.7%) and had less than seven years of study (80.9%). Physical aggression was the most reported type of violence (65.8%), occurring at home (66.7%) and committed by a partner/ex-intimate partner (51.9%). Firearm firing was the main method used (44.6%) and death occurred in a health facility (41.3%). Women with prior notification of violence had a 65.9 times higher risk of homicide when compared to the general population of women. Conclusion Describing the profile of women victims of homicides, with prior notification of violence, can contribute for formulating public policies for the protection and prevention of violence against women.

[Trend and distribution of the homicide mortality rate in accordance with the size of the population of Brazilian municipalities - 2000 and 2015]. / Tendência e distribuição da taxa de mortalidade por homicídios segundo porte populacional dos municípios do Brasil, 2000 e 2015.

The scope of this study is to analyze the trends and distribution of homicide mortality rates (HMR) according to the population size of Brazilian municipalities between 2000 and 2015. It is an ecological study of deaths recorded in the Mortality Information System, with HMR standardized by the direct method and 95% confidence interval. HMR in Brazil grew 6% (to 29.1/100,000) in the period, with an increase in small municipalities (83%; 12.7 to 23.2/100,000) and mediumsized cities (52%; 19.7% to 30.1/100,000); which is true for both sexes, different ages, regions and firearm-related events. HMR decreased in major cities (19%; 40.6% to 32.9/100,000) and the Southeast region (55%; 45.6% to 20.6/100,000). The relative risk (RR) of small and medium-sized cities in relation to large cities is already greater than or close to 1 among women (RR 0.99; 1.03), people aged 60 years or older (RR 1.43; 1.36) and homicides by other means (RR 1.16; 1.18). The cities of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro contributed the most to the reduction of HMR, especially in large cities (-37.6 and -22.3 homicides/100,000 inhabitants). Small and medium-sized municipalities have consistent trends of an increase in HMR even considering population subgroups.

O estudo tem como objetivo analisar tendências e distribuição das taxas de mortalidade por homicídios (TMH) segundo porte populacional dos municípios brasileiros entre 2000 e 2015. Trata-se de estudo ecológico dos óbitos do Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade, com TMH padronizada pelo método direto e intervalo de 95% de confiança. A TMH no Brasil cresceu 6% (para 29,1/100 mil) no período, com aumento em municípios de pequeno (83%; 12,7 para 23,2/100 mil) e médio porte (52%; 19,7 para 30,1/100 mil); o que se verifica para ambos os sexos, diferentes idades, regiões e em eventos por arma de fogo. A TMH decresceu em municípios de grande porte metropolitanos (19%; 40,6 para 32,9/100 mil) e da região Sudeste (55%; 45,6 para 20,6/100 mil). O risco relativo-RR de cidades pequenas e médias em relação a grandes já é maior ou próximo de 1 em mulheres (RR 0,99; 1,03), pessoas com 60 ou mais anos (RR 1,43; 1,36) e homicídios por outros meios (RR 1,16; 1,18). As cidades de São Paulo e Rio de Janeiro foram as que mais contribuíram para a redução das TMH, em especial nas cidades grandes (-37,6 e -22,3 homicídios/100 mil hab.). Municípios de porte pequeno e médio apresentam tendências consistentes de incremento de TMH mesmo considerando subgrupos populacionais.

Tendência e distribuição da taxa de mortalidade por homicídios segundo porte populacional dos municípios do Brasil, 2000 e 2015 / Trend and distribution of the homicide mortality rate in accordance with the size of the population of Brazilian municipalities - 2000 and 2015

Resumo O estudo tem como objetivo analisar tendências e distribuição das taxas de mortalidade por homicídios (TMH) segundo porte populacional dos municípios brasileiros entre 2000 e 2015. Trata-se de estudo ecológico dos óbitos do Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade, com TMH padronizada pelo método direto e intervalo de 95% de confiança. A TMH no Brasil cresceu 6% (para 29,1/100 mil) no período, com aumento em municípios de pequeno (83%; 12,7 para 23,2/100 mil) e médio porte (52%; 19,7 para 30,1/100 mil); o que se verifica para ambos os sexos, diferentes idades, regiões e em eventos por arma de fogo. A TMH decresceu em municípios de grande porte metropolitanos (19%; 40,6 para 32,9/100 mil) e da região Sudeste (55%; 45,6 para 20,6/100 mil). O risco relativo-RR de cidades pequenas e médias em relação a grandes já é maior ou próximo de 1 em mulheres (RR 0,99; 1,03), pessoas com 60 ou mais anos (RR 1,43; 1,36) e homicídios por outros meios (RR 1,16; 1,18). As cidades de São Paulo e Rio de Janeiro foram as que mais contribuíram para a redução das TMH, em especial nas cidades grandes (-37,6 e -22,3 homicídios/100 mil hab.). Municípios de porte pequeno e médio apresentam tendências consistentes de incremento de TMH mesmo considerando subgrupos populacionais.

Abstract The scope of this study is to analyze the trends and distribution of homicide mortality rates (HMR) according to the population size of Brazilian municipalities between 2000 and 2015. It is an ecological study of deaths recorded in the Mortality Information System, with HMR standardized by the direct method and 95% confidence interval. HMR in Brazil grew 6% (to 29.1/100,000) in the period, with an increase in small municipalities (83%; 12.7 to 23.2/100,000) and mediumsized cities (52%; 19.7% to 30.1/100,000); which is true for both sexes, different ages, regions and firearm-related events. HMR decreased in major cities (19%; 40.6% to 32.9/100,000) and the Southeast region (55%; 45.6% to 20.6/100,000). The relative risk (RR) of small and medium-sized cities in relation to large cities is already greater than or close to 1 among women (RR 0.99; 1.03), people aged 60 years or older (RR 1.43; 1.36) and homicides by other means (RR 1.16; 1.18). The cities of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro contributed the most to the reduction of HMR, especially in large cities (-37.6 and -22.3 homicides/100,000 inhabitants). Small and medium-sized municipalities have consistent trends of an increase in HMR even considering population subgroups.

Austerity policies in Brazil may affect violence related outcomes / Políticas de austeridade no Brasil podem afetar os desfechos relacionados à violência

Abstract Economic crisis is often managed with austerity policies. These measures seem to burden the population disproportionately, with the poorer being more affected. This paper aims to investigate health outcomes performance after the recent Brazilian crisis and gauge whether that pattern also emerged. Public domain data from 2010 to 2017 was used, and it was found that suicide and homicide rates increased after 2014, while mortality by road traffic injuries decreased at the same time. Furthermore, these trends were exacerbated in the North and Northeast regions and in the municipalities with the poorest quintiles of Human Development Index (HDI). The austerity policies followed by the Brazilian economic crisis may have influenced the mortality trends due to external causes, with a possible stronger impact in the North and Northeast regions and among less developed municipalities.

Resumo Crises econômicas são comumente administradas com políticas de austeridade. Estas medidas atingem a população de modo desproporcional, sendo os mais pobres os mais afetados. Este artigo pretende investigar a performance dos desfechos de saúde após a crise econômica recente e avaliar se o padrão de desproporcionalidade também ocorreu no Brasil. Dados públicos de 2010 a 2017 foram utilizados e encontramos que suicídios e taxas de homicídios aumentaram depois de 2014, enquanto mortalidade por acidentes de trânsito diminuíram. Além disto, estas tendências foram exacerbadas no Norte e no Nordeste e em municípios no quintil mais pobre em termos de Índice de Desenvolvimento Humano (IDH). As políticas de austeridade que se seguiram à crise econômica brasileira podem ter influenciado a tendência de mortalidade por causas externas, com um possível maior impacto no Norte e no Nordeste e em municípios menos desenvolvidos.

Austerity policies in Brazil may affect violence related outcomes.

Economic crisis is often managed with austerity policies. These measures seem to burden the population disproportionately, with the poorer being more affected. This paper aims to investigate health outcomes performance after the recent Brazilian crisis and gauge whether that pattern also emerged. Public domain data from 2010 to 2017 was used, and it was found that suicide and homicide rates increased after 2014, while mortality by road traffic injuries decreased at the same time. Furthermore, these trends were exacerbated in the North and Northeast regions and in the municipalities with the poorest quintiles of Human Development Index (HDI). The austerity policies followed by the Brazilian economic crisis may have influenced the mortality trends due to external causes, with a possible stronger impact in the North and Northeast regions and among less developed municipalities.

[Socioeconomic factors associated with the death rate by homicide in Colombia, 2000-2014]. / Factores socioeconómicos asociados con la mortalidad por homicidios en Colombia, 2000-2014.

The scope of this paper was to analyze the trends, impact on life expectancy and effect of the main associated socioeconomic factors with the death rate by homicide in Colombia between 2000 and 2014 at the state level, by gender and age groups. Standardized mortality rates and years of life lost among those under 85 years of age were calculated and multivariate regression analysis was performed using negative binomial fixed effects regression models with panel data to analyze the associated socioeconomic factors with the incidence of homicide. The reduction of the death rate by homicide in Colombia was corroborated, which was generalized at state level, though it did not occur homogenously. A higher mortality risk was found among males, particularly between 15 and 49 years of age. Economic growth and inequality were negatively associated with death rates by homicide; unemployment was positively associated; and poverty had no effect on the mortality rate. Investigating the main associated factors with homicidal violence is complex, but is indispensable due to its impact on economic and social development, given that it mainly affects the population of productive age, with broad public health consequences and at a high cost to healthcare services.

El objetivo fue analizar la tendencia, impacto en la esperanza de vida y efecto de los principales factores socioeconómicos asociados con la mortalidad por homicidios en Colombia entre 2000-2014 a nivel departamental, por sexo y grupos de edad. Se calcularon tasas estandarizadas de mortalidad, años de vida perdidos en menores de 85 años de edad y un análisis de regresión múltiple, ocupando modelos de regresión binomial negativa de datos panel de efectos fijos para analizar los factores socioeconómicos asociados con la incidencia de homicidios. Se corroboró la disminución de la mortalidad por homicidios en Colombia, la cual se dio de forma generalizada a nivel departamental, pero no fue homogénea. Se observó un mayor riesgo de fallecer en hombres de 15-49 años de edad. El crecimiento económico y la desigualdad se asociaron negativamente con la tasa de homicidios; el desempleo lo hizo de manera positiva; y la pobreza no tuvo un efecto significativo. Investigar los factores asociados con la violencia homicida es complejo, pero indispensable debido al impacto que tiene en el desarrollo económico y social, ya que afecta mayormente a la población en edades productivas, con amplias consecuencias en salud pública y altos costos de atención de los servicios de salud.

Factores socioeconómicos asociados con la mortalidad por homicidios en Colombia, 2000-2014 / Socioeconomic factors associated with the death rate by homicide in Colombia, 2000-2014

Resume El objetivo fue analizar la tendencia, impacto en la esperanza de vida y efecto de los principales factores socioeconómicos asociados con la mortalidad por homicidios en Colombia entre 2000-2014 a nivel departamental, por sexo y grupos de edad. Se calcularon tasas estandarizadas de mortalidad, años de vida perdidos en menores de 85 años de edad y un análisis de regresión múltiple, ocupando modelos de regresión binomial negativa de datos panel de efectos fijos para analizar los factores socioeconómicos asociados con la incidencia de homicidios. Se corroboró la disminución de la mortalidad por homicidios en Colombia, la cual se dio de forma generalizada a nivel departamental, pero no fue homogénea. Se observó un mayor riesgo de fallecer en hombres de 15-49 años de edad. El crecimiento económico y la desigualdad se asociaron negativamente con la tasa de homicidios; el desempleo lo hizo de manera positiva; y la pobreza no tuvo un efecto significativo. Investigar los factores asociados con la violencia homicida es complejo, pero indispensable debido al impacto que tiene en el desarrollo económico y social, ya que afecta mayormente a la población en edades productivas, con amplias consecuencias en salud pública y altos costos de atención de los servicios de salud.

Abstract The scope of this paper was to analyze the trends, impact on life expectancy and effect of the main associated socioeconomic factors with the death rate by homicide in Colombia between 2000 and 2014 at the state level, by gender and age groups. Standardized mortality rates and years of life lost among those under 85 years of age were calculated and multivariate regression analysis was performed using negative binomial fixed effects regression models with panel data to analyze the associated socioeconomic factors with the incidence of homicide. The reduction of the death rate by homicide in Colombia was corroborated, which was generalized at state level, though it did not occur homogenously. A higher mortality risk was found among males, particularly between 15 and 49 years of age. Economic growth and inequality were negatively associated with death rates by homicide; unemployment was positively associated; and poverty had no effect on the mortality rate. Investigating the main associated factors with homicidal violence is complex, but is indispensable due to its impact on economic and social development, given that it mainly affects the population of productive age, with broad public health consequences and at a high cost to healthcare services.

Mortality from Homicides in Slums in the City of Belo Horizonte, Brazil: An Evaluation of the Impact of a Re-Urbanization Project.

Background: Homicide rates in Brazil are among the highest worldwide. Although not exclusive to large Brazilian cities, homicides find their most important determinants in cities' slums. In the last decade, an urban renewal process has been initiated in the city of Belo Horizonte, in Brazil. Named Vila Viva project, it includes structuring urban interventions such as urban renewal, social development actions and land regularization in the slums of the city. This study evaluates the project's effect on homicide rates according to time and interventions. Methods: Homicide rates were analyzed comparing five slums with interventions (S1⁻S5) to five grouped non-intervened slums (S0), with similar socioeconomic characteristics from 2002 to 2012. Poisson regression model estimates the effect of time of observation and the effect of time of exposure (in years) to a completed intervention, besides the overall risk ratio (RR). Results: Using the time of observation in years, homicide rates decreased in the studied period and even more if considered cumulative time of exposure to a completed intervention for S1, S2, S3 and S4, but not for S5. Conclusions: Although the results of the effect of the interventions are not repeated in all slums, a downward trend in homicide rates has been found, which is connected to the interventions. New approaches could be necessary in order to verify the nexus between slum renewal projects and the reduction of homicide rates.