Risk assessment for perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) in air, blood serum and water: mortality from liver and kidney disease.

BACKGROUND: Cancer and non-cancer associations have been observed with PFAS (perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl) substances in the general population, in populations from locally contaminated environments and in exposed workers. METHODS: A quantitative risk assessment on the PFAS substance perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) was conducted for six outcomes using two occupational mortality studies that reported sufficient data to estimate exposure-relationships in relation to serum PFOA levels. Excess lifetime mortality risks were calculated using a life table procedure that applies an exposure response to time-dependent PFOA serum levels for a surviving hypothetical population from ages 20 to 85. Both occupational and general population exposures were described as serum levels, and as air and drinking water concentrations. RESULTS: The estimated occupational inhalation concentrations conferring the benchmark one-per-thousand lifetime risk were 0.21 µg/m3 for chronic kidney disease, 1.0 µg/m3 for kidney cancer and (from the two studies) 0.67 and 1.97 µg/m3 for chronic liver disease. Specific excess lifetime risks estimated in the general population at current PFOA serum levels (~ 1 ng/mL) range 1.5-32 per 100 000 which corresponds to drinking water concentrations of less than 10 ppt. CONCLUSION: Over eight outcome risk estimates, the serum PFOA concentrations conferring 1/1000 occupational lifetime risk ranged 44 to 416 ng/mL corresponding to air concentrations ranging 0.21 to 1.99 µg/m3. The analyses provide a preliminary PFOA quantitative risk assessment for liver and kidney disease mortality which, together with reported assessments for several other end-points, would inform policy on PFAS.

Chronic liver disease is an important risk factor for worse outcomes in acute pancreatitis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Chronic liver diseases (CLD) affect 1.5 billion patients worldwide, with dramatically increasing incidence in recent decades. It has been hypothesized that the chronic hyperinflammation associated with CLD may increase the risk of a more severe course of acute pancreatitis (AP). This study aims to investigate the underlying impact of CLD on the outcomes of AP. A systematic search was conducted in Embase, Medline, and Central databases until October 2022. Studies investigating patients with acute pancreatitis and CLD, were included in the meta-analysis. A total of 14,963 articles were screened, of which 36 were eligible to be included. CLD was a risk factor for increased mortality with an odds ratio (OR) of 2.53 (CI 1.30 to 4.93, p = 0.01). Furthermore, renal, cardiac, and respiratory failures were more common in the CLD group, with ORs of 1.92 (CI 1.3 to 2.83, p = 0.01), 2.11 (CI 0.93 to 4.77, p = 0.062) and 1.99 (CI 1.08 to 3.65, p = 0.033), respectively. Moreover, the likelihood of developing Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) was significantly higher, with an OR of 1.95 (CI 1.03 to 3.68, p = 0.042). CLD is an important risk factor for worse outcomes in AP pancreatitis, leading to higher mortality and increased rates of local and systemic complications.

Binge drinking at time of bariatric surgery is associated with liver disease, suicides, and increases long-term mortality.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Alcohol use disorder has been reported in patients undergoing bariatric procedures, but the pattern of alcohol consumption has not been evaluated. We investigated the prevalence, risk factors, and impact of binge drinking (BD) at the time of surgery and during follow-up. METHODS: A prospective, longitudinal study of subjects undergoing bariatric surgery was included in the LABS-2 registry between 2006 and 2009. Participants with AUDIT questionnaire at the time of surgery and a minimum of 12 months follow-up were included. BD was defined as consuming ≥5 drinks on at least 1 occasion in the previous month. Liver biopsies were obtained during bariatric procedures in not all cases. Survival analysis was performed with the adjusted Cox regression model and competing risk. RESULTS: A total of 2257 subjects were included, with a median follow-up of 79 months. The prevalence of BD at time of surgery was 12%, and it raised up to 23% during follow-up. Patients with BD predominantly had a binge eating disorder (OR=1.35 [95% CI: 1.04-1.76]), regularly consumed fast food [OR=1.4 (95% CI: 1.07-1.85)] and used other drugs (OR=2.65 [95% CI: 1.74-4.04]). Within liver biopsies evaluation, BD showed higher hepatic iron deposits (OR=3.00 [95% CI: 1.25-7.21]). BD at the time of surgery was associated with a higher risk of BD during follow-up (OR=10.49 [95% CI: 7.86-14.00]) and long-term mortality (HR: 3.21 [95% CI: 1.67-6.18]). Specific causes of death in these patients with BD were liver disease (p=0.020), suicide (p=0.015), neoplasms (p=0.034), and respiratory (p=0.025). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of BD in patients undergoing bariatric surgery is high and increases the risk of postoperative liver disease, suicides, and long-term mortality.

Serum Cytokeratin-18 levels as a prognostic biomarker in advanced liver disease: a comprehensive meta-analysis.

Cytokeratin-18 (CK-18) is a marker of hepatic cell death. Serum CK-18 could serve as a prognostic marker for patients with advanced liver disease (ALD). This meta-analysis aims to explore the association between total CK-18 (M65) and caspase-cleaved CK-18 (M30) levels with the prognosis of ALD patients. Relevant longitudinal observational studies were identified through comprehensive searches of the Medline, Web of Science, and Embase databases. A random-effects model was utilized to synthesize the findings, accommodating heterogeneity among studies. The analysis included 14 datasets from 11 studies. Elevated serum CK-18 levels at admission were linked to a higher risk of death or liver transplantation during follow-up. This association was consistent for both M65 (risk ratio [RR] 1.99, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.65 to 2.40, p < 0.001; I2 = 43%) and M30 (RR 1.94, 95% CI 1.57 to 2.40, p < 0.001; I2 = 46%). Subgroup analysis revealed that the relationship between serum M65 levels and adverse outcomes was attenuated in studies using multivariate analysis compared to those using univariate analysis (RR 1.78 vs. 2.80, p for subgroup difference = 0.03). Further subgroup analyses indicated that the prognostic significance of CK-18 for ALD patients was not significantly influenced by study design, methods of determining CK-18 cutoff values, or follow-up durations. Elevated serum CK-18 levels at admission indicate a poor prognosis in patients with ALD. This finding holds for both M65 and M30.

Effect of liver abnormalities on mortality in Fontan patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Fontan-associated liver disease (FALD) is one of the most common complications following Fontan procedure, but the impact of FALD on survival outcomes remains controversial. The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to examine and quantify the influence of liver disease on the survival of Fontan patients. METHODS: The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines were followed, and relevant human studies published from inception up to 12 August 2022 were searched. Stata (version 17.0) was applied to perform the meta-analysis, using random effects (Mantel-Haenszel) models. The I2 statistic was used to assess the heterogeneity. Subgroup analysis and meta-regression were employed to explore the potential sources of heterogeneity and sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the potential influence of each study on the overall pooled results. RESULTS: A total of 312 records were initially identified and 8 studies involving 2,466 patients were selected for inclusion. Results revealed a significant association between the severity of liver disease following Fontan procedure and mortality, which was confirmed by sensitivity analysis and subgroup analysis assessing post-HT mortality. Meta-regression showed that diagnostic methods for liver disease may be a source of heterogeneity. After removal of the FALD patients identified by international classification of disease codes, heterogeneity was markedly reduced, and the positive association between all-cause mortality and the severity of liver disease became significant. CONCLUSIONS: This meta-analysis showed the severity of liver disease following the Fontan procedure has a significant association with mortality. Lifelong follow-up is necessary and imaging examinations are recommended for routine surveillance of liver disease. Among patients with failing Fontan and advanced liver disease, combined heart-liver transplantation may provide additional survival benefits.

Reassessing the Impact of Coffee Consumption on Liver Disease: Insights from a Large-Scale Cohort Study with IPTW Adjustment.

Coffee consumption is globally widespread and has become a lifestyle habit. This study investigated coffee consumption and liver-related survival in a large cohort of 455,870 individuals with UK biobank, categorized into without steatosis, metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), and MASLD and increased alcohol intake (MetALD). Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) adjusted for confounding variables was used, followed by Kaplan-Meier analysis. Moderate coffee consumption (1-2 cups per day) was associated with lower all-cause mortality across the entire cohort, without the steatosis, MASLD (p < 0.0001), and MetALD cohorts (p = 0.0047 for pre-IPTW, p = 0.027 for post-IPTW). Before IPTW adjustment, consuming one or more cups of coffee per day appeared to significantly reduce liver-related mortality in the overall (p = 0.015) and MASLD cohorts (p = 0.011). However, post-IPTW application, no significant differences in liver-related mortality were observed between the coffee intake groups (p = 0.778, 0.319, 0.564, 0.238 for each group). While increased coffee consumption initially seemed to reduce liver-related mortality, after IPTW adjustment, only all-cause mortality significantly decreased (p < 0.0001 and p = 0.027). These findings suggest that previous studies might have overestimated the favorable effect of coffee intake on chronic liver disease due to confounding factors.

Global mortality of chronic liver diseases attributable to Hepatitis B virus and Hepatitis C virus infections from 1990 to 2019 and projections to 2030.

BACKGROUND: The burden of chronic liver disease (CLD) deaths attributable to the hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) remains unknown. Further research is required to elucidate the extent of this burden in the eventual elimination of these diseases. METHODS: Data on liver cancer, cirrhosis, and other CLD among 204 countries and territories between 1990 and 2019 was extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) published in 2019. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to analyze the temporal trend and predict the disease burden by 2030. RESULTS: The number of HCV-related CLD deaths surpassed that of CLD deaths caused by HBV in 2019 (536833 deaths versus 523003 deaths) and is expected to be maintained until 2030 (689124 deaths versus 628824 deaths). East Asia had the highest burden of chronic HBV and HCV infections during the study period. In 2019, the largest age-standardized death rates (ASDR) of CLD deaths caused by HBV and HCV were mainly observed in Western Sub-Saharan Africa (18.75%) and Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa (16.42%), respectively. South Asia and East Asia are predicted to have the highest number of CLD deaths related to HCV and HBV by 2030. Eastern Europe and South Asia show the largest expected increase in disease burden caused by HCV or HBV between 2019 and 2030. No GBD region is projected to achieve the WHO target of a 65% reduction in mortality from chronic HBV and HCV infections by 2030. CONCLUSIONS: Although the mortality of CLD caused by HBV and HCV decreased in the last three decades (from 1990 to 2019), the number of deaths will continue to increase until 2030. Therefore, governments and international organizations need to strengthen the effectiveness of vaccines, screening, and treatment, especially in potential emerging hotspot regions.

Circulating fatty acids and risk of hepatocellular carcinoma and chronic liver disease mortality in the UK Biobank.

Nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR)-based plasma fatty acids are objective biomarkers of many diseases. Herein, we aim to explore the associations of NMR-based plasma fatty acids with the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and chronic liver disease (CLD) mortality in 252,398 UK Biobank participants. Here we show plasma levels of n-3 poly-unsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) and n-6 PUFA are negatively associated with the risk of incident HCC [HRQ4vsQ1: 0.48 (95% CI: 0.33-0.69) and 0.48 (95% CI: 0.28-0.81), respectively] and CLD mortality [HRQ4vsQ1: 0.21 (95% CI: 0.13-0.33) and 0.15 (95% CI: 0.08-0.30), respectively], whereas plasma levels of saturated fatty acids are positively associated with these outcomes [HRQ4vsQ1: 3.55 (95% CI: 2.25-5.61) for HCC and 6.34 (95% CI: 3.68-10.92) for CLD mortality]. Furthermore, fibrosis stage significantly modifies the associations between PUFA and CLD mortality. This study contributes to the limited prospective evidence on the associations between plasma-specific fatty acids and end-stage liver outcomes.

An interpretable machine learning model for predicting 28-day mortality in patients with sepsis-associated liver injury.

Sepsis-Associated Liver Injury (SALI) is an independent risk factor for death from sepsis. The aim of this study was to develop an interpretable machine learning model for early prediction of 28-day mortality in patients with SALI. Data from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-IV, v2.2, MIMIC-III, v1.4) were used in this study. The study cohort from MIMIC-IV was randomized to the training set (0.7) and the internal validation set (0.3), with MIMIC-III (2001 to 2008) as external validation. The features with more than 20% missing values were deleted and the remaining features were multiple interpolated. Lasso-CV that lasso linear model with iterative fitting along a regularization path in which the best model is selected by cross-validation was used to select important features for model development. Eight machine learning models including Random Forest (RF), Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Extreme Gradient Boost (XGBoost), K Nearest Neighbor, Support Vector Machine, Generalized Linear Models in which the best model is selected by cross-validation (CV_glmnet), and Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) were developed. Shapley additive interpretation (SHAP) was used to improve the interpretability of the optimal model. At last, a total of 1043 patients were included, of whom 710 were from MIMIC-IV and 333 from MIMIC-III. Twenty-four clinically relevant parameters were selected for model construction. For the prediction of 28-day mortality of SALI in the internal validation set, the area under the curve (AUC (95% CI)) of RF was 0.79 (95% CI: 0.73-0.86), and which performed the best. Compared with the traditional disease severity scores including Oxford Acute Severity of Illness Score (OASIS), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II), Logistic Organ Dysfunction Score (LODS), Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS), and Acute Physiology Score III (APS III), RF also had the best performance. SHAP analysis found that Urine output, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), minimal Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS_min), blood urea nitrogen (BUN) and admission_age were the five most important features affecting RF model. Therefore, RF has good predictive ability for 28-day mortality prediction in SALI. Urine output, CCI, GCS_min, BUN and age at admission(admission_age) within 24 h after intensive care unit(ICU) admission contribute significantly to model prediction.

Approximately 50% of acute intestinal failure (AIF) patients on short-term parenteral nutrition (PN) have intestinal failure-associated liver disease (IFALD) without effect on hospital length of stay and mortality.

INTRODUCTION: Patients with intestinal failure (IF) are often dependent on PN for provision of calories and nutrients for survival. Similar to chronic intestinal failure (CIF) patients, those who have AIF are also at risk of IFALD, which is a poorly understood but potentially fatal condition. The local incidence of IFALD amongst AIF patients is not known. OBJECTIVES: The primary objective of this study was to determine the incidence of IFALD in AIF patients on short-term PN. Secondary objectives were to analyse patient and PN risk factors of IFALD, and clinical outcomes of length of stay (LOS) and inpatient mortality. DESIGN: This was a retrospective cross-sectional cohort study of hospitalised adult patients with AIF prescribed with short-term PN. All adult patients aged 21 years and above who received PN for at least 5 consecutive days and had normal liver function tests (LFTs) at the time of PN initiation were included in this study. RESULTS: A total of 171 patients were enrolled in this study, with 77 (45%) having deranged LFTs at the end of PN therapy and categorised under the IFLAD group. The patient cohort was predominantly male (92 [54%]) and had a median age of 68 years (IQR 59-76). Patients with IFALD at the end of PN therapy had higher diabetes prevalence (36% vs 26%, p = 0.2) and were on PN for a longer duration (median [IQR]: 12 [8-17] vs 8 [6-15] days, p = 0.003) than those without IFALD. There were no significant differences in patient and PN characteristics between the IFLAD and non-IFALD group. The multivariable models showed that the IFALD cohort had longer hospital stays (HR 0.90, 95% CI 0.65-1.23) and lower odds of inpatient death (OR 0.75, 95% CI 0.12-4.60), though both findings are not statistically significant (p = 0.5, 0.7). CONCLUSION: In this study, IFALD is a common phenomenon in AIF and the incidence was found to be an estimated 50% amongst patients on short-term PN with similar clinical outcomes between the two groups.

Independent Associations of Aortic Calcification with Cirrhosis and Liver Related Mortality in Veterans with Chronic Liver Disease.

INTRODUCTION: Abdominal aortic calcifications (AAC) are incidentally found on medical imaging and useful cardiovascular burden approximations. The Morphomic Aortic Calcification Score (MAC) leverages automated deep learning methods to quantify and score AACs. While associations of AAC and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) have been described, relationships of AAC with other liver diseases and clinical outcome are sparse. This study's purpose was to evaluate AAC and liver-related death in a cohort of Veterans with chronic liver disease (CLD). METHODS: We utilized the VISN 10 CLD cohort, a regional cohort of Veterans with the three forms of CLD: NAFLD, hepatitis C (HCV), alcohol-associated (ETOH), seen between 2008 and 2014, with abdominal CT scans (n = 3604). Associations between MAC and cirrhosis development, liver decompensation, liver-related death, and overall death were evaluated with Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS: The full cohort demonstrated strong associations of MAC and cirrhosis after adjustment: HR 2.13 (95% CI 1.63, 2.78), decompensation HR 2.19 (95% CI 1.60, 3.02), liver-related death HR 2.13 (95% CI 1.46, 3.11), and overall death HR 1.47 (95% CI 1.27, 1.71). These associations seemed to be driven by the non-NAFLD groups for decompensation and liver-related death [HR 2.80 (95% CI 1.52, 5.17; HR 2.34 (95% CI 1.14, 4.83), respectively]. DISCUSSION: MAC was strongly and independently associated with cirrhosis, liver decompensation, liver-related death, and overall death. Surprisingly, stratification results demonstrated comparable or stronger associations among those with non-NAFLD etiology. These findings suggest abdominal aortic calcification may predict liver disease severity and clinical outcomes in patients with CLD.

Von Willebrand factor for outcome prediction within different clinical stages of advanced chronic liver disease.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The prognostic performance of von Willebrand factor (VWF) may vary across clinical stages of advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD). Therefore, we investigated the evolution of VWF and other biomarkers throughout the full ACLD spectrum and evaluated their stage-specific prognostic utility. METHODS: We retrospectively included Viennese ACLD patients with available information on hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG), C-reactive protein (CRP)/VWF levels and outcomes. ACLD stages were defined according to D'Amico et al. We included an external validation cohort from Padua. RESULTS: We observed gradual increases in VWF throughout ACLD stages. In contrast, HVPG levelled off in decompensated ACLD (dACLD), whereas MELD showed only minor changes in the early stages and CRP did not increase until stage 3. VWF was associated with hepatic decompensation/liver-related death in compensated ACLD (cACLD) in a fully adjusted model, while it was not independently predictive of ACLF/liver-related death in dACLD. After backward selection, HVPG/CRP/VWF remained the main predictors of hepatic decompensation/liver-related death in cACLD. Notably, the performance of the non-invasive CRP/VWF-based model was comparable to invasive HVPG-based models (C-index:0.765 ± 0.034 vs. 0.756 ± 0.040). The discriminative ability of the CRP/VWF-based model was confirmed in an external validation cohort using another VWF assay which yielded systematically lower values. CONCLUSION: VWF is the only biomarker that gradually increases across all ACLD stages. It is of particular prognostic value in cACLD, where a CRP/VWF-based model is equivalent to an invasive HVPG-based model. Systematic differences in VWF underline the importance of interlaboratory surveys. Moreover, our findings reinforce the notion that, already in cACLD, inflammation is a key disease-driving mechanism.

Colectomy in patients with liver disease: albumin-bilirubin score accurately predicts outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Patients with liver disease undergoing colectomy have higher rates of complications and mortality. The Albumin-Bilirubin score is a recently developed system, established to predict outcomes after hepatectomy, that accounts for liver dysfunction. METHODS: All patients undergoing colectomy were identified in the 2015-2018 American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program colectomy-targeted database. Demographics and outcomes were compared between patients with Albumin-Bilirubin Grade 1 vs. 2/3. Multivariable regression was performed for outcomes including colorectal-specific complications. Areas under the receiver operative characteristic curves were calculated to determine accuracy of the Albumin-Bilirubin score. RESULTS: Of 86,273 patients identified, 48% (N = 41,624) were Albumin-Bilirubin Grade 1, 45% (N = 38,370) Grade 2 and 7% (N = 6,279) Grade 3. Patents with Grade 2/3 compared to Grade 1 had significantly increased mortality (7.2% vs. 0.9%, p < 0.001) and serious morbidity (31% vs. 12%, p < 0.001). Colorectal-specific complications including anastomotic leak (3.7% vs. 2.8%, p < 0.001) and prolonged ileus (26% vs. 14%, p < 0.001) were higher in patients with Grade 2/3. Grade 2/3 had increased risk of mortality (odds ratio 3.07, p < 0.001) and serious morbidity (1.78, p < 0.001). Albumin-Bilirubin had excellent accuracy in predicting mortality (area under the curve 0.81, p < 0.001) and serious morbidity (0.70, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Albumin-Bilirubin is easily calculated using only serum albumin and total bilirubin values. Grade 2/3 is associated with increased rates of mortality and morbidity following colectomy. Albumin-Bilirubin can be applied to risk-stratify patients prior to colectomy.

Elevated liver enzymes in a German tertiary-care hospital: Distribution, diagnostic steps and diagnosis groups.

BACKGROUND: The determination of liver blood tests is frequently performed in hospitalized patients, and abnormal values require further diagnostics. Yet, analyses considering the management of elevated liver enzymes are missing. Therefore, this study aimed to analyze the distribution of abnormal liver function tests and the subsequent diagnostic steps across different medical specialties. METHODS: From our Hannover liver-injury database, we identified 63,300 cases of patients who were hospitalized between January 2008 and July 2021 with AST or ALT > 3 ULN or AP or TBI > 2 ULN at any time point during hospitalization. Of these, 29,547 cases fulfilled the inclusion criteria and were subjected to further analysis. Cases were analyzed according to the three groups: internal medicine, surgery and others. Analyses were performed regarding baseline characteristics, liver-related diagnostics and factors influencing hospital mortality. RESULTS: Elevated liver blood tests were mainly observed in internal medicine (n=17,762, 60.1%), followed by the surgery department 34.2% (n=10,105). Notably, 40.2% (n=11,896) developed liver enzyme elevation above the cut-offs during the hospital stay. Testing for hepatitis B and C was more often performed in the surgery department compared to in internal medicine. In total, 5.6% of the cases (n=1,640) had a liver biopsy. Hyperbilirubinemia (total bilirubine ≥ 2ULN) and AST/ALT ratios >2 were associated with in-hospital mortality. CONCLUSION: Clinicians are often faced with elevated liver enzymes. However, diagnostic steps differ between different specialties. Physicians should be aware of the increased in-hospital mortality in cases with hyperbilirubinemia or elevated AST/ALT ratios.

Liver disease, heart failure, and 13-year mortality among Mexican American older adults: Nativity differences.

PURPOSE: To examine nativity differences of co-occurring liver disease (LD) and heart failure (HF) on 13-year mortality among Mexican American older adults. METHODS: Prospective cohort study of 1601 Mexican Americans aged ≥ 75 years from the Hispanic Established Population for the Epidemiologic Study of the Elderly (2004/05-2016). Participants were grouped into four groups: no LD and no HF (n = 1138), LD only (n = 53), HF only (n = 382), and both LD and HF (n = 28). We used Cox proportional hazards regression model to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) of death over time. RESULTS: The HR of death, as a function of HF only, was 1.32 (95% CI=1.07-1.62) among US-born and 1.36 (95% CI=1.04-1.78) among foreign-born participants, vs. those with no LD and no HF. Among foreign-born participants, the HR of death as a function of LD and HF was 3.39 (95% CI=1.65-6.93) vs. those without either. LD alone was not associated with mortality in either group. Among US-born, co-occurring LD and HF was not associated with mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Foreign-born participants with both LD and HF were at higher risk of mortality over 13 years of follow up.