Clinical characteristics, associated comorbidities and hospital outcomes of neonates with sleep disordered breathing: a retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: Awareness of the need for early identification and treatment of sleep disordered breathing (SDB) in neonates is increasing but is challenging. Unrecognised SDB can have negative neurodevelopmental consequences. Our study aims to describe the clinical profile, risk factors, diagnostic modalities and interventions that can be used to manage neonates with SDB to facilitate early recognition and improved management. METHODS: A single-centre retrospective study of neonates referred for assessment of suspected SDB to a tertiary newborn intensive care unit in New South Wales Australia over a 2-year period. Electronic records were reviewed. Outcome measures included demographic data, clinical characteristics, comorbidities, reason for referral, polysomnography (PSG) data, interventions targeted to treat SDB and hospital outcome. Descriptive analysis was performed and reported. RESULTS: Eighty neonates were included. Increased work of breathing, or apnoea with oxygen desaturation being the most common reasons (46% and 31%, respectively) for referral. Most neonates had significant comorbidities requiring involvement of multiple specialists (mean 3.3) in management. The majority had moderate to severe SDB based on PSG parameters of very high mean apnoea-hypopnoea index (62.5/hour) with a mean obstructive apnoea index (38.7/hour). Ten per cent of patients required airway surgery. The majority of neonates (70%) were discharged home on non-invasive ventilation. CONCLUSION: SDB is a serious problem in high-risk neonates and it is associated with significant multisystem comorbidities necessitating a multidisciplinary team approach to optimise management. This study shows that PSG is useful in neonates to diagnose and guide management of SDB.

School performance in children with prenatal drug exposure and out-of-home care in NSW, Australia: a retrospective population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Prenatal drug exposure (PDE) is a global public health problem that is strongly associated with the need for child protection services, including placement into out-of-home care (OOHC). We aimed to assess school outcomes for children with PDE (both with and without neonatal abstinence syndrome [NAS]) and the association of school performance with OOHC. METHODS: Using linked population health, OOHC, and school test data, we compared results on the Australian standardised curriculum-based test, the National Assessment Program-Literacy and Numeracy (NAPLAN), for children with PDE who were born in New South Wales (NSW) between 2001 and 2020 and had completed at least one NAPLAN test between Jan 1, 2008, and June 30, 2021, administered in Year 3 (age 8-9 years), Year 5 (age 10-11 years), Year 7 (age 12-13 years), or Year 9 (age 14-15 years). Linked datasets included NSW Perinatal Data Collection (birth data), NSW Admitted Patient Data Collection (hospital diagnoses), NSW Education Standards Authority (NAPLAN scores), NSW Family and Community Services Dataset-KiDS Data Collection (OOHC information), NSW Mental Health Ambulatory Data Collection, and NSW Registry for Births, Deaths, and Marriages. The primary outcome was scoring above or below the National Minimum Standard (NMS) in any test domain (mathematics, language, writing, and spelling) at each year level, comparing the relative risk of scoring below NMS between children with and without PDE (and with or without NAS within the PDE group), and with and without OOHC contact. The association between OOHC on the likelihood of scoring above NMS was also investigated for PDE and non-PDE cohorts. FINDINGS: The PDE cohort included 3836 children, and the non-PDE cohort included 897 487 children. Within the PDE cohort, 3192 children had a NAS diagnosis and 644 children had no NAS diagnosis. 1755 (45·8%) children with PDE required OOHC compared with 12 880 (1·4%) of 897 487 children without PDE. Children with PDE were more likely than children without PDE to score below NMS in any domain from Year 3 (risk ratio 2·72 [95% CI 2·58-2·76]) to Year 9 (2·36 [2·22-2·50]). Performance was similar regardless of a NAS diagnosis (Year 3: 0·96 [0·84-1·10]; Year 9: 0·98 [0·84-1·15]). The likelihood of scoring above NMS in Year 9 was reduced for children with PDE and without NAS (0·57 [0·45-0·73]) and NAS (0·58 [0·52-0·64]) compared with those without PDE, and also for children who received OOHC (0·60 [0·57-0·64]) compared with those without OOHC, when adjusted for confounders. Among children with PDE, those receiving OOHC had a similar likelihood of scoring above NMS compared with children who did not receive OOHC, from Year 3 (1·01 [0·92-1·11]) to Year 9 (0·90 [0·73-1·10]), when adjusted for confounding factors. By contrast, among children without PDE, those receiving OOHC were less likely to score above NMS than those who did not receive OOHC, from Year 3 (0·78 [0·76-0·80]) to Year 9 (0·58 [0·54-0·61]). INTERPRETATION: Compared with children without PDE, school performance in children with PDE-regardless of whether they were diagnosed with NAS-is poor, and the gap widens with age. The risk of poor performance persists regardless of OOHC status. This finding underscores the need for all children with PDE to receive long-term, culturally sensitive, and proactive support to improve life success. FUNDING: SPHERE Mindgardens Neuroscience Network, Australian Red Cross, Alpha Maxx Healthcare, Centre for Research Excellence for Integrated Health and Social Care, National Health and Medical Research Council, and University of Sydney.

Smoking Cessation Pharmacotherapy Use in Pregnancy.

Importance: Significant evidence gaps exist regarding the safety of smoking cessation pharmacotherapies during pregnancy, especially for the risk of congenital malformations. Consequently, professional bodies advise against the use of varenicline and bupropion and recommend caution with nicotine replacement therapy (NRT). Contemporary estimates of the use of smoking cessation pharmacotherapies during pregnancy are lacking. Objective: To quantify the proportion of individuals using prescribed smoking cessation pharmacotherapies during pregnancy and during the first trimester specifically, in 4 countries. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective, population-based cohort study used linked birth records, hospital admission records, and dispensing records of prescribed medications from all pregnancies resulting in birth between 2015 and 2020 in New South Wales, Australia; New Zealand; Norway; and Sweden. Data analyses were conducted in October and November 2023. Exposure: Prescribed smoking cessation pharmacotherapy use (varenicline, NRT, and bupropion) during pregnancy was defined as days' supply overlapping the period from date of conception to childbirth. Main Outcomes and Measures: Prevalence of use among all pregnancies and pregnancies with maternal smoking were calculated. Among women who used a pharmacotherapy, the proportion of women with use during the first trimester of pregnancy was also calculated. Results: Among 1 700 638 pregnancies in 4 countries, 138 033 (8.1%) had maternal smoking and 729 498 (42.9%) were younger than 30 years. The prevalences ranged from 0.02% to 0.14% for varenicline, less than 0.01% to 1.86% for prescribed NRT, and less than 0.01% to 0.07% for bupropion. Among pregnant individuals who smoked, use of pharmacotherapies was up to 10 times higher, with maximum prevalences of 1.25% for varenicline in New South Wales, 11.39% for NRT in New Zealand, and 0.39% for bupropion in New Zealand. Use in the first trimester occurred among more than 90% of individuals using varenicline, approximately 60% among those using NRT, and 80% to 90% among those using bupropion. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of pregnant individuals in 4 high-income countries, the low prevalence of varenicline and bupropion use during pregnancy and higher prevalence of NRT use aligned with current clinical guidelines. As most use occurred in the first trimester, there is a need for evidence on the risk of congenital malformations for these medications.

Morbidity and mortality outcomes of patients requiring isolated tricuspid valve surgery: a retrospective cohort study of 537 patients in New South Wales between 2002 and 2018.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study was to evaluate mortality and morbidity outcomes following open-heart isolated tricuspid valve surgery (TVSx) with medium to long-term follow-up. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: New South Wales public and private hospital admissions between 1 January 2002 and 30 June 2018. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 537 patients underwent open isolated TVSx during the study period. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcome was all-cause mortality tracked from the death registry to 31 December 2018. Secondary morbidity outcomes, including admission for congestive cardiac failure (CCF), new atrial fibrillation (AF), infective endocarditis (IE), pulmonary embolism (PE) and insertion of a permanent pacemaker (PPM) or implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD), were tracked from the Admitted Patient Data Collection database. Independent mortality associations were determined using the Cox regression method. RESULTS: A total of 537 patients underwent open isolated TVSx (46% male): median age (IQR) was 63.5 years (43.9-73.8 years) with median length of stay of 16 days (10-31 days). Main cardiovascular comorbidities were AF (54%) and CCF (42%); 67% had rheumatic tricuspid valve. In-hospital and total mortality were 7.4% and 39.3%, respectively (mean follow-up: 4.8 years). Cause-specific deaths were evenly split between cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular causes. Predictors of mortality included a history of CCF (HR=1.78, 95% CI 1.33 to 2.38, p<0.001) and chronic pulmonary disease (HR=2.66, 95% CI 1.63 to 4.33, p<0.001). In-hospital PPM rate was 10.0%. At 180 days, 53 (9.9%) patients were admitted for CCF, 25 (10.1%) had new AF, 7 (1.5%) had new IE and <1% had PE, post-discharge PPM or ICD insertion. CONCLUSION: Open isolated TVSx carries significant mortality risk, with decompensated CCF and new AF the most common morbidities encountered after surgery. This report forms a benchmark to compare outcomes with newer percutaneous tricuspid interventions.

Factors associated with cardiac implantable electronic device-related infections, New South Wales, 2016-21: a retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To quantify the rate of cardiac implantable electronic device (CIED)-related infections and to identify risk factors for such infections. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study; analysis of linked hospital admissions and mortality data. SETTING, PARTICIPANTS: All adults who underwent CIED procedures in New South Wales between 1 January 2016 and 30 June 2021 (public hospitals) or 30 June 2020 (private hospitals). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Proportions of patients hospitalised with CIED-related infections (identified by hospital record diagnosis codes); risk of CIED-related infection by patient, device, and procedural factors. RESULTS: Of 37 675 CIED procedures (23 194 men, 63.5%), 500 were followed by CIED-related infections (median follow-up, 24.9 months; interquartile range, 11.2-40.8 months), including 397 people (1.1%) within twelve months of their procedures, and 186 of 10 540 people (2.5%) at high risk of such infections (replacement or upgrade procedures; new cardiac resynchronisation therapy with defibrillator, CRT-D). The overall infection rate was 0.50 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.45-0.54) per 1000 person-months; it was highest during the first month after the procedure (5.60 [95% CI, 4.89-6.42] per 1000 person-months). The risk of CIED-related infection was greater for people under 65 years of age than for those aged 65-74 years (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.71; 95% CI, 1.32-2.23), for people with CRT-D devices than for those with permanent pacemakers (aHR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.02-2.08), for people who had previously undergone CIED procedures (two or more v none: aHR, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.02-2.25) or had CIED-related infections (aHR, 11.4; 95% CI, 8.34-15.7), or had undergone concomitant cardiac surgery (aHR, 1.62; 95% CI, 1.10-2.39), and for people with atrial fibrillation (aHR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.11-1.60), chronic kidney disease (aHR, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.27-1.87), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (aHR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.10-1.69), or cardiomyopathy (aHR 1.60; 95% CI, 1.25-2.05). CONCLUSIONS: Knowledge of risk factors for CIED-related infections can help clinicians discuss them with their patients, identify people at particular risk, and inform decisions about device type, upgrades and replacements, and prophylactic interventions.

Understanding Risk Factors for Oropharyngeal Gonorrhea Among Sex Workers Attending Sexual Health Clinics in 2 Australian Cities: Mixed Methods Study.

BACKGROUND: The risk factors for oropharyngeal gonorrhea have not been examined in sex workers despite the increasing prevalence of gonorrhea infection. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to determine the risk factors for oropharyngeal gonorrhea in female and gender-diverse sex workers (including cisgender and transgender women, nonbinary and gender fluid sex workers, and those with a different identity) and examine kissing, oral sex, and mouthwash practices with clients. METHODS: This mixed methods case-control study was conducted from 2018 to 2020 at 2 sexual health clinics in Melbourne, Victoria, and Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. We recruited 83 sex workers diagnosed with oropharyngeal gonorrhea (cases) and 581 sex workers without (controls). Semistructured interviews with 19 sex workers from Melbourne were conducted. RESULTS: In the case-control study, the median age of 664 sex workers was 30 (IQR 25-36) years. Almost 30% of sex workers (192/664, 28.9%) reported performing condomless fellatio on clients. Performing condomless fellatio with clients was the only behavior associated with oropharyngeal gonorrhea (adjusted odds ratio 3.6, 95% CI 1.7-7.6; P=.001). Most participants (521/664, 78.5%) used mouthwash frequently. In the qualitative study, almost all sex workers reported kissing clients due to demand and generally reported following clients' lead with regard to kissing style and duration. However, they used condoms for fellatio because they considered it a risky practice for contracting sexually transmitted infections, unlike cunnilingus without a dental dam. CONCLUSIONS: Our study shows that condomless fellatio is a risk factor for oropharyngeal gonorrhea among sex workers despite most sex workers using condoms with their clients for fellatio. Novel interventions, particularly targeting the oropharynx, will be required for oropharyngeal gonorrhea prevention.

Exposure to maternal cannabis use disorder and risk of autism spectrum disorder in offspring: A data linkage cohort study.

This study aimed to investigate the association between pre-pregnancy, prenatal and perinatal exposures to cannabis use disorder (CUD) and the risk of autism spectrum disoder (ASD) in offspring. Data were drawn from the New South Wales (NSW) Perinatal Data Collection (PDC), population-based, linked administrative health data encompassing all-live birth cohort from January 2003 to December 2005. This study involved 222 534 mother-offspring pairs. . The exposure variable (CUD) and the outcome of interest (ASD) were identified using the 10th international disease classification criteria, Australian Modified (ICD-10-AM). We found a three-fold increased risk of ASD in the offspring of mothers with maternal CUD compared to non-exposed offspring. In our sensitivity analyses, male offspring have a higher risk of ASD associated with maternal CUD than their female counterparts. In conclusion, exposure to maternal CUD is linked to a higher risk of ASD in offspring, with a stronger risk in male offspring. Further research is needed to understand these gender-specific effects and the relationship between maternal CUD and ASD risk in children.

The seroprevalence of antibodies to Japanese encephalitis virus in five New South Wales towns at high risk of infection, 2022: a cross-sectional serosurvey.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the proportion of people in New South Wales towns at high risk of Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) infections during the 2022 outbreak; to identify risk factors for JEV infection. STUDY DESIGN: Cross-sectional serosurvey study of the seroprevalence of JEV-specific antibodies in NSW. SETTING, PARTICIPANTS: Convenience sample of people (all ages) from five regional NSW towns deemed to be at high risk of JEV infections after first outbreak of Japanese encephalitis in southeastern Australia in early 2022 (Balranald, Corowa, Dubbo, Griffith, Temora), 21 June - 22 July 2022. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Proportion of people seropositive for JEV total antibody, assayed by defined epitope-blocking enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay; prevalence odds ratios for exposure risk factors and protective behaviours. RESULTS: Eighty of 917 eligible participants (559 girls or women, 61%; 42 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, 4.6%; median age, 52 years [IQR, 37-62 years]) were seropositive for JEV-specific total antibody (8.7%); the median age of seropositive people was 61 years (IQR, 48-70 years). The seropositivity proportion was largest for people aged 65 years or more (30 of 192; weighted proportion, 13.7%) and larger for male than female participants (30 of 358, 10.6% v 50 of 559, 7.5%). Five of 42 samples from Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander participants were seropositive (12%). We found mixed associations with a range of potential risk factors. CONCLUSION: We found evidence for a substantial number of JEV infections in five regional NSW towns during a single arbovirus season in 2022. Public health responses, including effective surveillance, vaccination against JEV, and mosquito management, are critical for controlling outbreaks. Promoting behaviours that reduce exposure to mosquitoes is a core component of prevention, particularly when the vaccine supply is limited.

Controlling COVID-19 outbreaks in the correctional setting: A mathematical modelling study.

Correctional centres (termed here 'prisons') are at high risk of COVID-19 and have featured major outbreaks worldwide. Inevitable close contacts, frequent inmate movements, and a disproportionate burden of co-morbidities mean these environments need to be prioritised in any public health response to respiratory pathogens such as COVID-19. We developed an individual-based SARS-CoV-2 transmission model for the prison system in New South Wales, Australia - incorporating all 33 correctional centres, 13,458 inmates, 578 healthcare and 6,909 custodial staff. Potential COVID-19 disease outbreaks were assessed under various mitigation strategies, including quarantine on entry, isolation of cases, rapid antigen testing of staff, as well as immunisation.Without control measures, the model projected a peak of 472 new infections daily by day 35 across the prison system, with all inmates infected by day 120. The most effective individual mitigation strategies were high immunisation coverage and prompt lockdown of centres with infected inmates which reduced outbreak size by 62-73%. Other than immunisation, the combination of quarantine of inmates at entry, isolation of proven or suspected cases, and widespread use of personal protective equipment by staff and inmates was the most effective strategy. High immunisation coverage mitigates the spread of COVID-19 within and between correctional settings but is insufficient alone. Maintaining quarantine and isolation, along with high immunisation levels, will allow correctional systems to function with a low risk of outbreaks. These results have informed public health policy for respiratory pathogens in Australian correctional systems.

Oxycodone initiation in Australia (2014-2018): Sociodemographic factors and preceding health service use.

AIMS: Oxycodone is the most commonly prescribed strong opioid in Australia. This study describes health service antecedents and sociodemographic factors associated with oxycodone initiation. METHODS: Population-based new user cohort study linking medicine dispensings, hospitalizations, emergency department visits, medical services and cancer notifications from New South Wales (NSW) for 2014-2018. New users had no dispensings of any opioid in the preceding year. We analysed health service use in the 5 days preceding initiation and proportion of people on treatment over 1 year and fitted an area-based, multivariable initiation model with sociodemographic covariates. RESULTS: Oxycodone accounted for 30% of opioid initiations. Annually, 3% of the NSW population initiated oxycodone, and 5-6% were prevalent users; the new user cohort comprised 830 963 people. Discharge from hospital (39.3%), therapeutic procedures (21.4%) and emergency department visits (19.7%) were common; a hospital admission for injury (6.0%) or a past-year history of cancer (7.2%) were less common. At 1 year after initiation, 4.6% of people were using oxycodone. In the multivariable model, new use of oxycodone increased with age and was higher for people outside major cities, for example, an incidence rate ratio of 1.43 (95% confidence interval 1.36-1.51) for inner regional areas relative to major cities; there was no evidence of variation in rates of new use by social disadvantage. CONCLUSION: About half of new oxycodone use in NSW was preceded by a recent episode of hospital care or a therapeutic procedure. Higher rates of oxycodone initiation in rural and regional areas were not explained by sociodemographic factors.

Sexually transmitted infections: Prevalence and clinical outcomes among pregnant women in Western Sydney.

OBJECTIVE: We report the prevalence, characteristics and clinical outcomes of women with sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in pregnancy in the Western Sydney Local Health District (WSLHD) serving a large culturally and socio-economically diverse community in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, over the last 10 years. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of all pregnant women booked for antenatal care at three hospitals in WSLHD between September 2012 and August 2022 inclusive. Characteristics and birth outcomes associated with STIs diagnosed in pregnancy (chlamydia, gonorrhea, and syphilis) are reported using multivariable logistic regression adjusting for relevant confounders. RESULTS: During 2012-2022, there were 102 905 births and 451 women (0.44%) with an STI diagnosis during pregnancy. The number of women with a history of chlamydia prior to their current pregnancy has increased over the last 10 years (P < 0.001). STIs in pregnancy were more common in younger women aged <20 years (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 7.30, 95% confidence interval [CI] 5.04-10.57), 20-24 years (aOR 3.12, 95% CI 2.46-3.96), and >40 years (adj OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.07-2.59), in women with body mass index >30 (aOR 1.73, 95%CI 1.37-2.19), and those who smoked (aOR 2.24, 95% CI 1.71-2.94) and consumed alcohol (aOR 3.14, 95% CI 1.88-5.23) and illicit drugs (aOR 2.10, 95% CI 1.31-3.36). STIs in pregnancy were borderline associated with stillbirth (aOR 2.19 95% CI 0.90-5.36) but did not have a significant impact on preterm birth (aOR 1.21, 95% CI 0.87-1.68), admission to neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) (aOR 1.02, 95% CI 0.77-1.34), or having a small-for-gestational-age (SGA) baby (aOR 0.97, 95% CI 0.74-1.27). CONCLUSIONS: Sociodemographic factors such as age, weight, smoking, and alcohol and drug use, were associated with the STI incidence in pregnancy. While the latter did not have an impact on preterm birth, NICU admission, and SGA in our cohort, there was a borderline association with stillbirth. Future research should identify barriers and facilitators to testing in a multicultural population and understanding the drivers of higher rates of STIs in certain population groups.

Bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation differences by sex - The role of arrest recognition.

PURPOSE: To assess whether bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) differed by patient sex among bystander-witnessed out-of-hospital cardiac arrests (OHCA). METHODS: This study is a retrospective analysis of paramedic-attended OHCA in New South Wales (NSW) between January 2017 to December 2019 (restricted to bystander-witnessed cases). Exclusions included OHCA in aged care, medical facilities, with advance care directives, from non-medical causes. Multivariate logistic regression examined the association of patient sex with bystander CPR. Secondary outcomes were OHCA recognition, bystander AED application, initial shockable rhythm, and survival outcomes. RESULTS: Of 4,491cases, females were less likely to receive bystander CPR in private residential (Adjusted Odds ratio [AOR]: 0.82, 95%CI: 0.70-0.95) and public locations (AOR: 0.58, 95%CI:0.39-0.88). OHCA recognition during the emergency call was lower for females arresting in public locations (84.6% vs 91.6%, p = 0.002) and this partially explained the association of sex with bystander CPR (∼44%). This difference in recognition was not observed in private residential locations (p = 0.2). Bystander AED use was lower for females (4.8% vs 9.6%, p < 0.001); however, after adjustment for location and other covariates, this relationship was no longer significant (AOR: 0.83, 95%CI: 0.60-1.12). Females were less likely to be in an initial shockable rhythm (AOR: 0.52, 95%CI: 0.44-0.61), but more likely to survive the event (AOR: 1.34, 95%CI: 1.15-1.56). There was no sex difference in survival to hospital discharge (AOR: 0.96, 95%CI: 0.77-1.19). CONCLUSION: OHCA recognition and bystander CPR differ by patient sex in NSW. Research is needed to understand why this difference occurs and to raise public awareness of this issue.

Predictive analytics for cardiovascular patient readmission and mortality: An explainable approach.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular patients experience high rates of adverse outcomes following discharge from hospital, which may be preventable through early identification and targeted action. This study aimed to investigate the effectiveness and explainability of machine learning algorithms in predicting unplanned readmission and death in cardiovascular patients at 30 days and 180 days from discharge. METHODS: Gradient boosting machines were trained and evaluated using data from hospital electronic medical records linked to hospital administrative and mortality data for 39,255 patients admitted to four hospitals in New South Wales, Australia between 2017 and 2021. Sociodemographic variables, admission history, and clinical information were used as potential predictors. The performance was compared to LASSO regression, as well as the HOSPITAL and LACE risk score indices. Important risk factors identified by the gradient-boosting machine model were explored using Shapley values. RESULTS: The models performed well, especially for the mortality outcomes. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values were 0.70 for readmission and 0.87-0.90 for mortality using the full gradient boosting machine algorithms. Among the top predictors for 30-day and 180-day readmission were increased red cell distribution width, old age (especially above 80 years), high measured troponin and urea levels, not being married or in a relationship, and low albumin levels. For mortality, these included increased red cell distribution width, old age (especially older than 70 years), high measured troponin and urea levels, high neutrophil and monocyte counts, and low eosinophil and lymphocyte counts. The Shapley values gave clear insight into the dynamics of decision-tree-based models. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated an explainable predictive algorithm to identify cardiovascular patients who are at high risk of readmission or death at discharge from the hospital and identified key risk factors.

Health Perceptions, Multimorbidity, and New Fractures and Mortality Among Patients With a Fracture.

Importance: A high proportion of patients who sustain a fracture have multimorbidity. However, the association of multimorbidity with postfracture adverse outcomes, such as subsequent fractures and premature mortality, has not been widely explored. Objective: To examine the association of multimorbidity and self-rated health with subsequent fractures and mortality after fracture. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prospective cohort study included participants from New South Wales, Australia, in the Sax Institute's 45 and Up Study (n = 267 357). Participants were recruited from July 2005 to December 2009 and followed up from the date of the incident fracture until subsequent fracture, death, or the end of the study (April 2017), whichever occurred first, with questionnaire data linked to hospital admission and medication records. Data analysis was reported between March and September 2023. Exposures: Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) score and self-rated health (SRH). Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcomes were subsequent fracture or mortality after an incident fracture. Associations between SRH measures and subsequent fracture and mortality were also assessed. All analyses were stratified by sex given the different fracture and mortality risk profiles of females and males. Results: Of 25 280 adults who sustained incident fractures, 16 191 (64%) were female (mean [SD] age, 74 [12] years) and 9089 (36%) were male (mean [SD] age, 74 [13] years). During a median follow-up time of 2.8 years (IQR, 1.1-5.2 years), 2540 females (16%) and 1135 males (12%) sustained a subsequent fracture and 2281 females (14%) and 2140 males (24%) died without a subsequent fracture. Compared with a CCI score of less than 2, those with a CCI score of 2 to 3 had an increased risk of subsequent fracture (females: hazard ratio [HR], 1.16 [95% CI, 1.05-1.27]; males: HR, 1.25 [95% CI, 1.09-1.43]) and mortality (females: HR, 2.19 [95% CI, 1.99-2.40]; males: HR, 1.89 [95% CI, 1.71-2.09]). Those with a CCI score of 4 or greater had greater risks of subsequent fracture (females: HR, 1.33 [95% CI, 1.12-1.58]; males: HR, 1.48 [95% CI, 1.21-1.81]) and mortality (females: HR, 4.48 [95% CI, 3.97-5.06]; males: HR, 3.82 [95% CI 3.41-4.29]). Self-rated health was also significantly associated with subsequent fracture and mortality. Those reporting the poorest health and quality of life had the highest subsequent fracture risks, and their mortality risks were even higher. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, both CCI and SRH measures were associated with increased risk of subsequent fractures and mortality after fracture, underscoring the importance of managing the care of patients with comorbidities who sustain a fracture.

Impact of comorbidities in severely injured patients with blunt chest injury: A population-based retrospective cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Blunt chest injuries result in up to 10 % of major trauma admissions. Comorbidities can complicate recovery and increase the mortality rate in this patient cohort. A better understanding of the association between comorbidities and patient outcomes will facilitate enhanced models of care for particularly vulnerable groups of patients, such as older adults. AIMS: i) compare the characteristics of severely injured patients with blunt chest injury with and without comorbidities and ii) examine the relationship between comorbidities and key patient outcomes: prolonged length of stay, re-admission within 28 days, and mortality within 30 days in a cohort of patients with blunt chest injury admitted after severe trauma. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study using linked data from the NSW Trauma Registry and NSW mortality and hospitalisation records between 1st of January 2012 and 31st of December 2019. RESULTS: After adjusting for potential confounding factors, patients with severe injuries, chest injuries, and comorbidities were found to have a 34 % increased likelihood of having a prolonged length of stay (OR = 1.34, 95 %I = 1.17-1.53) compared to patients with no comorbidities. There was no difference in 30-day mortality for patients with a severe chest injury who did or did not have comorbidities (OR = 1.05, 95 %CI = 0.80-1.39). No significant association was found between comorbidities and re-admission within 28 days. CONCLUSION: Severely injured patients with blunt chest injury and comorbidities are at risk of prolonged length of stay.

Outcomes of atypical (B3) core biopsy lesions diagnosed across BreastScreen NSW, Australia.

INTRODUCTION: Atypical or B3 lesions comprise a heterogeneous group of uncertain malignant potential. B3 lesions diagnosed on core biopsy are usually recommended for diagnostic open biopsy. Identifying factors which could allow conservative management of B3 lesions would be helpful in avoiding unnecessary surgery. The aim of this study was to identify the upgrade rate to malignancy for B3 core biopsy lesions and to compare characteristics of lesions which were malignant and benign at excision. METHOD: This retrospective study used data from BreastScreen New South Wales (NSW), Australia, of women who were diagnosed with B3 lesions on needle biopsy from 2011 to 2019. RESULTS: During the study period, 1927 B3 lesions were included. The upgrade rate to malignancy was 26.4%. Of the malignant lesions on excision, 29.6% were invasive and 69.2% were in situ. The rates of upgrade to invasive cancer and DCIS varied substantially with the core biopsy lesion type. Lesions with atypia on core biopsy had significantly higher upgrade rates to malignancy at 34.7% compared to 13.6% for lesions without atypia (p < 0.0001). Lesions with malignant pathology were significantly larger than those with benign pathology (difference = 5.1 mm (95% CI 2.7-7.5 mm), p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The overall upgrade rate of B3 lesions to malignancy was 26.4%. The majority of the lesions were upgraded to DCIS instead of invasive cancer. Upgrade rates varied by lesion type. Lesions with atypia had significantly higher upgrade rates to cancer compared to lesions without atypia. Malignant lesions were significantly larger than benign lesions.

Geographic variation in sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist use in people with type 2 diabetes in New South Wales, Australia.

AIM: Sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2is) and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) improve glycaemic control and cardio-renal outcomes for people with type 2 diabetes (T2D). However, geographic and socio-economic variation in use is not well understood. METHODS: We identified 367 829 New South Wales residents aged ≥40 years who dispensed metformin in 2020 as a proxy for T2D. We estimated the prevalence of use of other glucose-lowering medicines among people with T2D and the prevalence of SGLT2i and GLP-1RA use among people using concomitant T2D therapy (i.e. metformin + another glucose-lowering medicine). We measured the prevalence by small-level geography, stratified by age group, and characterized by remoteness and socio-economic status. RESULTS: The prevalence of SGLT2i (29.7%) and GLP-1RA (8.3%) use in people with T2D aged 40-64 increased with geographic remoteness and in areas of greater socio-economic disadvantage, similar to other glucose-lowering medicines. The prevalence of SGLT2i (55.4%) and GLP-1RA (15.4%) among people using concomitant T2D therapy varied across geographic areas, with lower SGLT2i use in more disadvantaged areas and localized areas of high GLP-1RA use (2.5 times the median). Compared with people aged 40-64 years, the prevalence of SGLT2i and GLP-1RA use was lower in older age groups, but with similar patterns of variation across geographic areas. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of SGLT2i and GLP-1RA use varied by geography, probably reflecting a combination of system- and prescriber-level factors. Socio-economic variation in GLP-1RA use was overshadowed by localized patterns of prescribing. Continued monitoring of variation can help shape interventions to optimize use among people who would benefit the most.

'Joining the Dots: Linking Prenatal Drug Exposure to Childhood and Adolescence' - research protocol of a population cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Prenatal drug exposure (PDE) is one of the most important causes of child harm, but comprehensive information about the long-term outcomes of the families is difficult to ascertain. The Joining the Dots cohort study uses linked population data to understand the relationship between services, therapeutic interventions and outcomes of children with PDE. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Information from routinely collected administrative databases was linked for all births registered in New South Wales (NSW), Australia between 1 July 2001 and 31 December 2020 (n=1 834 550). Outcomes for seven mutually exclusive groups of children with varying prenatal exposure to maternal substances of addiction, including smoking, alcohol, prescription/illicit drugs and neonatal abstinence syndrome will be assessed. Key exposure measures include maternal drug use type, maternal social demographics or social determinants of health, and maternal physical and mental health comorbidities. Key outcome measures will include child mortality, academic standardised testing results, rehospitalisation and maternal survival. Data analysis will be conducted using Stata V.18.0. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Approvals were obtained from the NSW Population and Health Services Research Ethics Committee (29 June 2020; 2019/ETH12716) and the Australian Capital Territory Health Human Research Ethics Committee (11 October 2021; 2021-1231, 2021-1232, 2021-1233); and the Aboriginal Health and Medical Research Council (5 July 2022; 1824/21), and all Australian educational sectors: Board of Studies (government schools), Australian Independent Schools and Catholic Education Commission (D2014/120797). Data were released to researchers in September 2022. Results will be presented in peer-reviewed academic journals and at international conferences. Collaborative efforts from similar datasets in other countries are welcome.