Mining the relationship between COVID-19 sentiment and market performance.

In March 2020, the outbreak of COVID-19 precipitated one of the most significant stock market downturns in recent history. This paper explores the relationship between public sentiment related to COVID-19 and stock market fluctuations during the different phases of the pandemic. Utilizing natural language processing and sentiment analysis, we examine Twitter data for pandemic-related keywords to assess whether these sentiments can predict changes in stock market trends. Our analysis extends to additional datasets: one annotated by market experts to integrate professional financial sentiment with market dynamics, and another comprising long-term social media sentiment data to observe changes in public sentiment from the pandemic phase to the endemic phase. Our findings indicate a strong correlation between the sentiments expressed on social media and market volatility, particularly sentiments directly associated with stocks. These insights validate the effectiveness of our Sentiment(S)-LSTM model, which helps to understand the evolving dynamics between public sentiment and stock market trends from 2020 through 2023, as the situation shifts from pandemic to endemic and approaches new normalcy.

High-income ZIP codes in New York City demonstrate higher case rates during off-peak COVID-19 waves.

Introduction: Our study explores how New York City (NYC) communities of various socioeconomic strata were uniquely impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: New York City ZIP codes were stratified into three bins by median income: high-income, middle-income, and low-income. Case, hospitalization, and death rates obtained from NYCHealth were compared for the period between March 2020 and April 2022. Results: COVID-19 transmission rates among high-income populations during off-peak waves were higher than transmission rates among low-income populations. Hospitalization rates among low-income populations were higher during off-peak waves despite a lower transmission rate. Death rates during both off-peak and peak waves were higher for low-income ZIP codes. Discussion: This study presents evidence that while high-income areas had higher transmission rates during off-peak periods, low-income areas suffered greater adverse outcomes in terms of hospitalization and death rates. The importance of this study is that it focuses on the social inequalities that were amplified by the pandemic.

How feasible is it to mobilize $31 billion a year for pandemic preparedness and response? An economic growth modelling analysis.

BACKGROUND: Covid-19 has reinforced health and economic cases for investing in pandemic preparedness and response (PPR). The World Bank and World Health Organization (WHO) propose that low- and middle-income governments and donor countries should invest $31.1 billion each year for PPR. We analyse, based on the projected economic growth of countries between 2022 and 2027, how likely it is that low- and middle-income country governments and donors can mobilize the estimated funding. METHODS: We modelled trends in economic growth to project domestic health spending by low- and middle-income governments and official development assistance (ODA) by donors for years 2022 to 2027. We modelled two scenarios for countries and donors - a constant and an optimistic scenario. Under the constant scenario we assume that countries and donors continue to dedicate the same proportion of their health spending and ODA as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) and gross national income (GNI), respectively, as they did during baseline (the latest year for which data are available). In the optimistic scenario, we assume a yearly increase of 2.5% in health spending as a share of GDP for countries and ODA as a share of GNI for donors. FINDINGS: Our analysis shows that low-income countries would need to invest on average 37%, lower-middle income countries 9%, and upper-middle income countries 1%, of their total health spending on PPR each year under the constant scenario to meet the World Bank WHO targets. Donors would need to allocate on average 8% of their total ODA across all sectors to PPR each year to meet their target. CONCLUSIONS: The World Bank WHO targets for PPR will not be met unless low- and middle-income governments and donors spend a much higher share of their funding on PPR. Even under optimistic growth scenarios, low-income and lower-middle income countries will require increased support from global health donors. The donor target cannot be met using the yearly increase in ODA under any scenario. If the country and donor targets are not met, the highest-impact health security measures need to be prioritized for funding. Alternative sources of PPR financing could include global taxation (e.g., on financial transactions, carbon, or airline flights), cancelling debt, and addressing illicit financial flows. There is also a need for continued work on estimating current PPR costs and funding requirements in order to arrive at more enduring and reliable estimates.

Uncertainty in banking and debt financing of firms in Vietnam.

This study explores the effects of banking uncertainty on firms' debt financing. Employing data from 2007 to 2022 of Vietnam-a bank-based economy, we document that banking uncertainty negatively impacts corporate debt. The impact firmly holds across various debt maturities and sources, with the most predominant driver witnessed in bank debt. We also investigate the potential underlying mechanism linking banking uncertainty to debt financing, thereby validating the working of three crucial channels, including increased costs of debt, substitution of trade credit, and contractions in firm investment. Furthermore, conducting extended analysis, we find that debt financing exhibits more pronounced reactions to banking uncertainty for firms with closer ties to banks or during macroeconomic shocks, as captured by the financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings survive after robustness checks by alternative measurement, static and dynamic econometric models, and endogeneity controls.

The COVID-19 Pandemic Led To A Large Decline In Physician Gross Revenue Across All Specialties In 2020.

US health care use declined during the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Although utilization is known to have recovered in 2021 and 2022, it is unknown how revenue in 2020-22 varied by physician specialty and practice setting. This study linked medical claims from a large national federation of commercial health plans to physician and practice data to estimate pandemic-associated impacts on physician revenue (defined as payments to eligible physicians) by specialty and practice characteristics. Surgical specialties, emergency medicine, and medical subspecialties each experienced a greater than 9 percent adjusted gross revenue decline in 2020 relative to prepandemic baselines. By 2022, pathology and psychiatry revenue experienced robust recovery, whereas surgical and oncology revenue remained at or below baseline. Revenue recovery in 2022 was greater for physicians practicing in hospital-owned practices and in practices participating in accountable care organizations. Pandemic-associated revenue recovery in 2021 and 2022 varied by specialty and practice type. Given that physician financial instability is associated with health care consolidation and leaving practice, policy makers should closely monitor revenue trends among physicians in specialties or practice settings with sustained gross revenue reductions during the pandemic.

Analysis of funding landscape for health policy and systems research in the Eastern Mediterranean Region: A scoping review of the literature over the past decade.

BACKGROUND: Health policy and systems research (HPSR) can strengthen health systems and improve population health outcomes. In the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR), there is limited recognition of the importance of HPSR and funding remains the main challenge. This study seeks to: (1) assess the reporting of funding in HPSR papers published between 2010 and 2022 in the EMR, (2) examine the source of funding in the published HPSR papers in the EMR and (3) explore variables influencing funding sources, including any difference in funding sources for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-related articles. METHODS: We conducted a rapid scoping review of HPSR papers published between 2010 and 2022 (inclusively) in the EMR, addressing the following areas: reporting of funding in HPSR papers, source of funding in the published HPSR papers, authors' affiliations and country of focus. We followed the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) guidelines for conducting scoping reviews. We also conducted univariate and bivariate analyses for all variables at 0.05 significance level. RESULTS: Of 10,797 articles screened, 3408 were included (of which 9.3% were COVID-19-related). More than half of the included articles originated from three EMR countries: Iran (n = 1018, 29.9%), the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (n = 595, 17.5%) and Pakistan (n = 360, 10.6%). Approximately 30% of the included articles did not report any details on study funding. Among articles that reported funding (n = 1346, 39.5%), analysis of funding sources across all country income groups revealed that the most prominent source was national (55.4%), followed by international (41.7%) and lastly regional sources (3%). Among the national funding sources, universities accounted for 76.8%, while governments accounted for 14.9%. Further analysis of funding sources by country income group showed that, in low-income and lower-middle-income countries, all or the majority of funding came from international sources, while in high-income and upper-middle-income countries, national funding sources, mainly universities, were the primary sources of funding. The majority of funded articles' first authors were affiliated with academia/university, while a minority were affiliated with government, healthcare organizations or intergovernmental organizations. We identified the following characteristics to be significantly associated with the funding source: country income level, the focus of HPSR articles (within the EMR only, or extending beyond the EMR as part of international research consortia), and the first author's affiliation. Similar funding patterns were observed for COVID-19-related HPSR articles, with national funding sources (78.95%), mainly universities, comprising the main source of funding. In contrast, international funding sources decreased to 15.8%. CONCLUSION: This is the first study to address the reporting of funding and funding sources in published HPSR articles in the EMR. Approximately 30% of HPSR articles did not report on the funding source. Study findings revealed heavy reliance on universities and international funding sources with minimal role of national governments and regional entities in funding HPSR articles in the EMR. We provide implications for policy and practice to enhance the profile of HPSR in the region.

How mixed ownership affects investment efficiency? evidence from state-owned enterprises in China.

The inefficiency observed in investment within state-owned enterprises presents a significant practical challenge that can affect the sustainable development of China's economy. To address this issue, this study comprehensively explores the intricate mechanisms underlying the governance implications of mixed ownership on the investment efficiency of listed companies. Drawing on unbalanced panel data encompassing Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange A-share listed companies in China spanning the period from 2008 to 2022, this study employs a fixed-effects model to unveil the nuanced ways in which mixed ownership influences investment efficiency through the lens of agency costs. This study transcends the boundaries of traditional agency conflicts between managers and shareholders. It delves deeper, illuminating the diverse effects of agency conflicts between significant controlling shareholders and minority shareholders. The results revealed a noteworthy positive correlation between mixed ownership and investment efficiency, and verified the intermediary role of agency costs between mixed ownership and investment efficiency, which is an important result of our research. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the relationship between the two can be affected by external events, such as during the COVID-19 pandemic, investment efficiency is not the most concerned issue for enterprises. The findings have practical implications for practitioners and policymakers, as they offer avenues for optimizing investment strategies and fostering efficient and effective corporate governance practices.

Double-Duty Carers' Health and Wellbeing during COVID-19: Exploring the Role of Mobility of the Care Economy in Southern Ontario, Canada.

Double-Duty Carers (DDCs) refer to people who work in the healthcare industry while also providing unpaid care to relatives, friends, or neighbours. The expectations placed on DDCs is expected to grow, and these employees already experience a high caring burden. As such it is important to understand how best to support their health and wellbeing. This paper explores DDCs' wellbeing during the COVID-19 pandemic, focusing an understudied factor: their mobility constraints. Following the Mobility of the Care Economy framework and a qualitative research design, it does so through a thematic analysis of 16 semi-structured interviews with female DDCs in Southern Ontario, Canada. Once data saturation was reached, three mobility pathways during the pandemic were identified, all of which negatively affected DDCs wellbeing. First, some COVID-19 policies (e.g., testing requirements) resulted in increased mobility demands and increased spatiotemporal constraints. Second, the closure of institutions that care for dependents (schools, daycares, day centres) resulted in forced reduced mobility, which increased financial stress. Finally, indirect mobility effects were identified: the reduced mobility of other informal carers increased the workload and emotional strain on DDCs. The paper concludes with a discussion of mobility-related policies that could improve DDC wellbeing.

The economic case for scaling up health research and development: Lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic.

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, governments directly funded vaccine research and development (R&D), quickly leading to multiple effective vaccines and resulting in enormous health and economic benefits to society. We develop a simple economic model showing this feat could potentially be repeated for other health challenges. Based on inputs from the economic and medical literatures, the model yields estimates of optimal R&D spending on treatments and vaccines for known diseases. Taking a global and societal perspective, we estimate the social benefits of such spending and a corresponding rate of return. Applications to Streptococcus A vaccines and Alzheimer's disease treatments demonstrate the potential of enhanced research and development funding to unlock massive global health and health-related benefits. We estimate that these benefits range from 2 to 60 trillion (2020 US$) and that the corresponding rates of return on R&D spending range from 12% to 23% per year for 30 y. We discuss the current shortfall in R&D spending and public policies that can move current funding closer to the optimal level.

Depression and assets during the COVID-19 pandemic: A longitudinal study of mental health across income and savings groups.

The prevalence of depression in U.S. adults during the COVID-19 pandemic has been high overall and particularly high among persons with fewer assets. Building on previous work on assets and mental health, we document the burden of depression in groups based on income and savings during the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a nationally representative, longitudinal panel study of U.S. adults (N = 1,271) collected in April-May 2020 (T1), April-May 2021 (T2), and April-May 2022 (T3), we estimated the adjusted odds of reporting probable depression at any time during the COVID-19 pandemic with generalized estimating equations (GEE). We explored probable depression-defined as a score of ≥10 on the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9)-by four asset groups, defined by median income (≥$65,000) and savings (≥$20,000) categories. The prevalence of probable depression was consistently high in Spring 2020, Spring 2021, and Spring 2022 with 27.9% of U.S. adults reporting probable depression in Spring 2022. We found that there were four distinct asset groups that experienced different depression trajectories over the COVID-19 pandemic. Low income-low savings asset groups had the highest level of probable depression across time, reporting 3.7 times the odds (95% CI: 2.6, 5.3) of probable depression at any time relative to high income-high savings asset groups. While probable depression stayed relatively stable across time for most groups, the low income-low savings group reported significantly higher levels of probable depression at T2, compared to T1, and the high income-low savings group reported significantly higher levels of probable depression at T3 than T1. The weighted average of probable depression across time was 42.9% for low income-low savings groups, 24.3% for high income-low savings groups, 19.4% for low income-high savings groups, and 14.0% for high income-high savings groups. Efforts to ameliorate both savings and income may be necessary to mitigate the mental health consequences of pandemics.

Deciphering the link between healthcare expenditure, corruption, and COVID-19 mortality.

This paper analyzes the determinants of COVID-19 mortality across over 140 countries in 2020, with a focus on healthcare expenditure and corruption. It finds a positive association between COVID-19 deaths and aging populations, obesity rates, and healthcare expenditure while noting a negative association with rural residency and corruption perception. The study further reveals that mortality is positively associated with aging populations in high-income countries and positively associated with obesity in upper-middle to high-income countries. Mortality is positively associated with healthcare expenditure, which likely reflects a country's preparedness and ability to better track, document, and report COVID-19 deaths. On the other hand, mortality is negatively associated with corruption perception in upper-middle-income countries. Further analyses based on 2021 data reveal COVID-19 deaths are positively associated with the proportion of the population aged 65 and older in low to lower-middle-income countries, with obesity in high-income countries, and with tobacco use across most countries. Interestingly, there is no evidence linking COVID-19 deaths to healthcare expenditure and corruption perception, suggesting a post-2020 convergence in preparedness likely due to proactive pandemic responses, which might have also mitigated corruption's impact. Policy recommendations are proposed to aid the elderly, address obesity, and combat tobacco use.

Estimating the productivity cost of administrative duties and work-related engagements from submission trends during COVID-19 pandemic lockdown.

During the initial months of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, mBio experienced a large increase in the number of submissions, a phenomenon that was also observed for journals of different fields. Since most research laboratories were closed, this increase cannot reflect increased research activity. In this editorial, we propose that the increase in submissions reflected the release of a backlog of unpublished work following a reduction in work-related engagements including scientific travel, which in turn provides an estimate of the productivity costs of such activities on research output.

Capital structure and financial performance of China's energy industry: What can we infer from COVID-19?

The study aims to uncover the impact of COVID-19 and capital structure on the financial performance of 1787 renewable and nonrenewable energy firms in China from 2010 to 2022. Using the fixed effect approach, our study found that financial leverage negatively affected the return on assets and equity ratios for both renewable and nonrenewable energy. On the other hand, the study shows that COVID-19 adversely affected the financial performances of non-renewable energy firms. Conversely, COVID-19 positively affected the financial performances of renewable energy firms. The conclusions drawn by the present study are helpful for the policymakers in making corresponding financial decisions. The study suggests that policymakers must adopt profitable capital structure strategies for firms and shareholders in this context. Finally, policymakers must design more policies to overcome the adverse influence of the COVID-19 pandemic crisis and avoid any future unforeseeable pandemics.

Racial-Ethnic Gaps in Pandemic-Related Economic Hardship: Age Differences Among Older Adults.

OBJECTIVES: Racial-ethnic disparities in experiences of economic hardship during the pandemic are well documented in the population overall and among older adults. Existing research shows that this economic hardship was much less common at older than younger ages. Little is known about the intersection of racial-ethnic and age disparities in pandemic-related hardship in later life. This research report investigated racial-ethnic gaps in economic hardship by age group among older adults. METHODS: Data were from the 2018 and 2020 U.S. Health and Retirement Study (HRS) including the 2020 coronavirus disease 2019 module. We estimated Heckman-corrected linear probability models to examine differences in experiences of pandemic-related economic hardship in the 2020 HRS by race-ethnicity (non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, U.S.-born Hispanic, foreign-born Hispanic) across age groups (55-64, 65-74, 75+). In the multivariable analysis, we controlled for sociodemographic characteristics, participation in social programs, pre-existing health conditions and behaviors, and economic resources from the 2018 HRS. RESULTS: Experiences of economic hardship declined with age within each racial-ethnic group. Racial-ethnic gaps in hardship remained at older ages without any controls. However, when all controls were added, racial-ethnic gaps in economic hardship were eliminated for those ages 75+. Individual characteristics prior to the pandemic explained racial-ethnic differences in hardship for the oldest adults (75+) but did not explain gaps for those ages 55-74. DISCUSSION: Results point to structural factors generating new racial-ethnic gaps in pandemic-related economic hardship among those approaching retirement (ages 55-74) that did not affect the oldest adults (ages 75+).

The intervention of local public authorities and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in Romania: a subnational analysis.

The COVID-19 pandemic had a strong territorial dimension, with a highly asymmetric impact among Romanian counties, depending on pre-existing vulnerabilities, regions' economic structure, exposure to global value chains, specialization, and overall ability to shift a large share of employees to remote working. The aim of this paper is to assess the role of Romanian local authorities during this unprecedented global medical emergency by capturing the changes of public spending at the local level between 2010 and 2021 and amid the COVID-19 pandemic, and to identify clusters of Romanian counties that shared similar characteristics in this period, using a panel data quantitative model and hierarchical cluster analysis. Our empirical analysis shows that between 2010-2021, the impact of social assistance expenditures was higher than public investment (capital spending and EU funds) on the GDP per capita at county level. Additionally, based on various macroeconomic and structural indicators (health, labour market performance, economic development, entrepreneurship, and both local public revenues and several types of expenditures), we determined seven clusters of counties. The research contributes to the discussion regarding the increase of economic resilience but also to the evidence-based public policies implementation at local level.

Did private election administration funding advantage Democrats in 2020?

Private donors contributed more than $350 million to local election officials to support the administration of the 2020 election. Supporters argue these grants were neutral and necessary to maintain normal election operations during the pandemic, while critics worry these grants mostly went to Democratic strongholds and tilted election outcomes. How much did these grants shape the 2020 presidential election? To answer this question, we collect administrative data on private election administration grants and election outcomes. We then use advances in synthetic control methods to compare presidential election results and turnout in counties that received grants to counties with similar election results and turnout before 2020. While Democratic counties were more likely to apply for a grant, we find that the grants did not have a noticeable effect on the presidential election. Our estimates of the average effect on Democratic vote share range from 0.03 to 0.36 percentage points. Our estimates of the average effect of receiving a grant on turnout range from 0.03 to 0.14 percentage points. Across specifications, our 95% CIs typically include negative effects and all fail to include effects on Democratic vote share larger than 0.58 percentage points and effects on turnout larger than 0.40 percentage points. We characterize the magnitude of our effects by asking how large they are compared to the margin by which Biden won the 2020 election. In simple bench-marking exercises, we find that the effects of the grants were likely too small to have changed the outcome of the 2020 presidential election.

Investing in health preparedness, response and resilience: a genomics costing tool focused on next generation sequencing.

The world has seen unprecedented gains in the global genomic surveillance capacities for pathogens with pandemic and epidemic potential within the last 4 years. To strengthen and sustain the gains made, WHO is working with countries and partners to implement the Global Genomic Surveillance Strategy for Pathogens with Pandemic and Epidemic Potential 2022-2032. A key technical product developed through these multi-agency collaborative efforts is a genomics costing tool (GCT), as sought by many countries. This tool was developed by five institutions - Association of Public Health Laboratories, FIND, The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, UK Health Security Agency, and the World Health Organization. These institutions developed the GCT to support financial planning and budgeting for SARS-CoV-2 next-generation sequencing activities, including bioinformatic analysis. The tool costs infrastructure, consumables and reagents, human resources, facility and quality management. It is being used by countries to (1) obtain costs of routine sequencing and bioinformatics activities, (2) optimize available resources, and (3) build an investment case for the scale-up or establishment of sequencing and bioinformatics activities. The tool has been validated and is available in English and Russian at https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789240090866. This paper aims to highlight the rationale for developing the tool, describe the process of the collaborative effort in developing the tool, and describe the utility of the tool to countries.

Utilisation, out-of-pocket payments and access before and after COVID-19: Thailand's Universal Health Coverage Scheme.

The goal of Universal Health Coverage (UHC) is that everyone needing healthcare can access quality services without financial hardship. Recent research covering countries with UHC systems documents the emergence, and acceleration following the COVID-19 pandemic of unapproved informal payment systems by providers that collect under-the-table payments from patients. In 2001, Thailand extended its '30 Baht' government-financed coverage to all uninsured people with little or no cost sharing. In this paper, we update the literature on the performance of Thailand's Universal Health Coverage Scheme (UCS) with data covering 2019 (pre-COVID-19) through 2021. We find that access to care for Thailand's UCS-covered population (53 million) is similar to access provided to populations covered by the other major public health insurance schemes covering government and private sector workers, and that, unlike reports from other UHC countries, no evidence that informal side payments have emerged, even in the face of COVID-19 related pressures. However, we do find that nearly one out of eight Thailand's UCS-covered patients seek care outside the UCS delivery system where they will incur out-of-pocket payments. This finding predates the COVID-19 pandemic and suggests the need for further research into the performance of the UHC-sponsored delivery system.

Lessons Learned from Model-based Economic Evaluations of COVID-19 Drug Treatments Under Pandemic Circumstances: Results from a Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND: Following clinical research of potential coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) treatments, numerous decision-analytic models have been developed. Due to pandemic circumstances, clinical evidence was limited and modelling choices were made under great uncertainty. This study aimed to analyse key methodological characteristics of model-based economic evaluations of COVID-19 drug treatments, and specifically focused on modelling choices which pertain to disease severity levels during hospitalisation, model structure, sources of effectiveness and quality of life and long-term sequelae. METHODS: We conducted a systematic literature review and searched key databases (including MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science, Scopus) for original articles on model-based full economic evaluations of COVID-19 drug treatments. Studies focussing on vaccines, diagnostic techniques and non-pharmaceutical interventions were excluded. The search was last rerun on 22 July 2023. Results were narratively synthesised in tabular form. Several aspects were categorised into rubrics to enable comparison across studies. RESULTS: Of the 1047 records identified, 27 were included, and 23 studies (85.2%) differentiated patients by disease severity in the hospitalisation phase. Patients were differentiated by type of respiratory support, level of care management, a combination of both or symptoms. A Markov model was applied in 16 studies (59.3%), whether or not preceded by a decision tree or an epidemiological model. Most cost-utility analyses lacked the incorporation of COVID-19-specific health utility values. Of ten studies with a lifetime horizon, seven adjusted general population estimates to account for long-term sequelae (i.e. mortality, quality of life and costs), lasting for 1 year, 5 years, or a patient's lifetime. The most often reported parameter influencing the outcome of the analysis was related to treatment effectiveness. CONCLUSION: The results illustrate the variety in modelling approaches of COVID-19 drug treatments and address the need for a more standardized approach in model-based economic evaluations of infectious diseases such as COVID-19. TRIAL REGISTRY: Protocol registered in PROSPERO under CRD42023407646.

U.S. blocks funding for pandemic research group.

EcoHealth Alliance mishandled grant that helped fund virus studies in China, officials say.