What Would a Trump Administration 2.0 Mean for Health Care Policy?

This JAMA Forum discusses former President Donald Trump's current viewpoints and prior policies on price transparency, drug pricing, and the Affordable Care Act that could be reflected in his health care policy if reelected.

Social Determinants of Health and Insurance Claim Denials for Preventive Care.

Importance: The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) eliminated out-of-pocket cost-sharing for recommended preventive care for most privately insured patients. However, patients seeking preventive care continue to face cost-sharing and administrative hurdles, including claim denials, which may exacerbate inequitable access to care. Objective: To determine whether patient demographics and social determinants of health are associated with denials of insurance claims for preventive care. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study of patients insured through their employers or the ACA Marketplaces used claims and remittance data from Symphony Health Solutions' Integrated DataVerse from 2017 to 2020; analysis was completed from January to July 2024. Exposure: Seeking preventive care. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was the frequency of insurer denials for preventive services across 5 categories: specific benefit denials, billing errors, coverage lapses, inadequate coverage, and other. Subgroup analysis was performed across patient household income, education, and race and ethnicity. Secondary outcomes included charges for denied claims, approximating patients' remaining financial responsibility for care. Results: A total of 1 535 181 patients received 4 218 512 preventive services in 2 507 943 unique visits (mean [SD] age at visits, 54.02 [13.19] years; 1 804 637 visits for female patients [71.96%]); 585 299 patients (23.30%) had an annual household income $100 000 or higher, and 824 540 patients had some college education (32.88%). A total of 20 658 individuals (0.82%) were Asian, 139 950 (5.58%) were Hispanic, 219 646 (8.76%) were non-Hispanic Black, 1 372 223 (54.72%) were non-Hispanic White, and 25 412 (1.0%1) were other races and ethnicities not included in the other 4 groups. Of preventive claims, 1.34% (95% CI, 1.32%-1.36%) were denied, consisting mainly of specific benefit denials (0.67%; 95% CI, 0.66%-0.68%) and billing errors (0.51%; 95% CI, 0.50%-0.52%). The lowest-income patients had 43.0% higher odds of experiencing a denial than the highest-income patients (odds ratio, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.37-1.50; P < .001). The least educated enrollees had a denial rate of 1.79% (95% CI, 1.76%-1.82%) compared with 1.14% (95% CI, 1.12%-1.16%) for enrollees with college degrees. Denial rates for Asian (2.72%; 95% CI, 2.55%-2.90%), Hispanic (2.44%; 95% CI, 2.38%-2.50%), and non-Hispanic Black (2.04%; 95% CI, 1.99%-2.08%) patients were significantly higher than those for non-Hispanic White patients (1.13%; 95% CI, 1.12%-1.15%). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of 1 535 181 patients seeking preventive care, denials of insurance claims for preventive care were disproportionately more common among at-risk patient populations. This administrative burden potentially perpetuates inequitable access to high-value health care.

Achieving Cancer Equity by Improving Health Insurance Access for All Latinos.

Cancer is the top leading cause of death among Latino people. Lack of health insurance is a significant contributor to inadequate cancer detection and treatment. Despite healthcare policy expansions such as the Affordable Care Act, Latino people persistently maintain the highest uninsured rate among any ethnic and racial group in the US, especially among Latino individuals who are immigrants or part of a mixed immigration status household. Recognizing that immigration status is a critical factor in the ability of Latino community members to seek health insurance and access healthcare services, a few US states and the District of Columbia have implemented policies that have expanded coverage to children and adults regardless of immigration status. Expansion of Medicaid eligibility regardless of immigration status may significantly benefit Latino communities, however the facilitators and barriers to enrolling in these programs need to be evaluated to ensure reach and achieve health equity across the cancer control continuum for all Latinos.

Email Nudges Increased Eligibility Verification And Subsidy Receipt In California's ACA Marketplace.

In the Affordable Care Act (ACA) Marketplaces, enrollees must periodically demonstrate their eligibility to receive income-linked health insurance premium subsidies. Marketplaces can verify eligibility using existing records, but only with consumers' consent, which must be renewed at specified times. In a randomized experiment in September 2020, we tested the effect of email nudges reminding consumers to provide consent for verification of their continued eligibility for premium subsidies in California's ACA Marketplace. More than 20,000 households that had applied for subsidies but whose consent for eligibility verification would soon expire were sent one, two, or three emails reminding them to renew consent. Sending three emails increased consent updates by 1.9 percentage points (3.2 percent) and increased receipt of subsidies by 2.0 percentage points (4.0 percent). However, nearly 40 percent of households receiving three emails did not update their consent by the end of the open enrollment period, thus preventing their continued receipt of subsidies. To improve the affordability of Marketplace coverage, new policies and structural changes may be needed to reduce administrative barriers that can inhibit access to subsidies.

Postpartum Insurance Loss: Predicting Factors, Associations with Postpartum Health Service Utilization, and the Role of Medicaid Expansion.

OBJECTIVES: This study investigated the predictors of postpartum insurance loss (PPIL), assessed its association with postpartum healthcare receipt, and explored the potential buffering role of Medicaid expansion. METHODS: Data from the 2016-2020 Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System (PRAMS) were analyzed, covering 197,820 individuals with live births. PPIL was determined via self-reported insurance status before and after pregnancy. Postpartum visits and depression screening served as key health service receipt indicators. The association between PPIL and maternal characteristics was examined using bivariate analysis. The association of PPIL with health service receipt was assessed through odds ratios derived from multivariate logistic regression models. The role of Medicaid expansion was explored by interacting ACA Medicaid expansion status with the dichotomous PPIL indicator. RESULTS: PPIL was experienced by 7.8% of postpartum people, with higher rates in Medicaid non-expansion states (13.6%) compared to 6.1% in expansion states (p < 0.05). Racial and ethnic disparities were observed, with 16.5% of Hispanic and 4.6% of white people experiencing PPIL. Individuals who experienced PPIL had decreased odds of attending postpartum visits (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 0.81, 95% CI = 0.73-0.90) and receiving screening for postpartum depression (aOR = 0.86, 95% CI = 0.78-0.96) compared to those who maintained insurance coverage. People in expansion states with no PPIL had higher odds of postpartum depression screening (aOR = 1.33, 95% CI = 1.08-1.62). No differences in postpartum visits in expansion versus non-expansion were noted (aOR = 1.13, 95% CI = 0.93-1.36). CONCLUSIONS FOR PRACTICE: Ensuring consistent postpartum insurance coverage offers policymakers a chance to enhance healthcare access and outcomes, particularly for vulnerable groups.

History Repeats-The Election Battle for Medicaid in 2024.

This Viewpoint explores partisan attitudes toward Medicaid in the 2024 US election and the implications for access to care and health equity if a Republican proposal that includes work requirements and block grants moves forward.

Patient Assistance Programs-A New Era of Law and Policy.

This Viewpoint from authors at PORTAL discusses the importance of patient assistance programs in covering the cost of prescription drugs, highlights 2 recent rulings that illustrate the substantial barriers to regulating these programs, and calls for continued evaluation of these programs' effectiveness and costs.

Medicaid expansion and opioid prescriptions: Evidence from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey.

Evidence is mixed on whether increased access to insurance, specifically through the ACA's Medicaid expansion, exacerbated the opioid public health crisis through increased opioid prescribing. Using survey data on retail prescription drug fills from 2008 to 2019, we did not find a significant relationship between Medicaid expansion and opioid prescribing in the newly eligible Medicaid population. It may be that the dangers of opioids were known well enough by the time of the Medicaid expansion that lack of access to care was no longer a binding constraint on opioid prescription receipt.

Assessing the impact of the Physician Payments Sunshine Act on pharmaceutical companies' payments to physicians.

Enacted in 2010 as part of the Affordable Care Act, the Physician Payments Sunshine Act (PPSA) mandates transparency in financial interactions between pharmaceutical companies and healthcare providers. This study investigates the PPSA's effectiveness and its impact on industry payments to physicians. Utilizing ProPublica and Open Payments databases, a difference-in-difference analysis was conducted across ten states. Results reveal a significant reduction in pharmaceutical companies' meal-related payments post-PPSA, impacting both the total payment amount and the number of unique physicians reached. Conversely, travel payments showed no significant impact in the primary analysis. However, subsequent analyses revealed nuanced reductions in the number of unique physicians reached, highlighting a more intricate relationship wherein pharmaceutical companies likely adjusted their financial interaction strategies with physicians differently across states. State-level variations in meals further underscore the complexity of PPSA's influence. This pioneering research contributes valuable empirical evidence, addressing gaps in prior studies and emphasizing the ongoing need for policy assessment to guide industry-physician relationships.

Newly and Previously Eligible Medicaid Enrollees Differ, but Not in Health Care Expenditures.

In 2014, the Affordable Care Act (ACA) expanded the role of Medicaid by encouraging states to increase eligibility for lower-income adults. As of 2024, 10 states had not adopted the expanded eligibility provisions of the ACA, possibly due to concerns about the state's share of spending. Using the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS), we documented how health care utilization, expenditures, and the overall health status of newly eligible enrollees compare with enrollees who would have been eligible under their states' rules before the ACA. Our estimates suggest that, during 2014-16, newly eligible Medicaid enrollees had worse health and greater utilization and expenditures than previously eligible enrollees. However, during 2017-19, newly and previously eligible enrollees had comparable per capita health expenditures across six types of health spending. We find some evidence that changes in Medicaid enrollment composition muted observed differences between eligibility groups.

The association between affordable care act implementation and the prevalence of women having ever received a Pap smear.

BACKGROUND: To assess if implementation of the 2010 Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) was associated with changes in the prevalence of women having ever received a pap smear. METHODS: This study utilised the publicly available Centre for Disease Control National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG) data set. This was a serial cross-sectional study. The comparison groups were defined as women who received cancer screening and prevention interventions prior to full implementation of the ACA (2011-2013) and post full implementation (2017-2019). The primary outcome was self-reporting receipt of a Papanicolaou (Pap) smear. Secondary outcomes included HPV vaccination and mammogram rates. Anonymized patient information was collected from the nationally representative dataset, and analyses were performed utilising STATA 18. RESULTS: The two study cohorts obtained from the NSFG included women who responded in 2011-2013 (n = 5601), deemed to be 'Pre-ACA implementation' (Pre ACA), and those who responded in 2017-2019 (n = 6141) 'Post-ACA implementation' (Post ACA). The proportion of women who were 21 years and older and ever had a Pap smear in the Pre ACA group (96.0%) was higher than that of the Post ACA group (94.1%) (OR 0.66 (0.49-0.91)). In contrast, HPV vaccination rates rose, and mammogram rates remained stable in the Post ACA period. CONCLUSION: A decrease in proportion of women ever having had a Pap smear despite implementation of health policies to increase access to preventive measures suggests further interventions to improve access to cervical cancer screening are warranted.

The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, which was implemented in 2014, aimed to reform health care access. This serial cross-sectional study demonstrated that the number of women age 21 or older who had ever received a pap smear fell after the implementation of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act.

Access to Care and Outcomes With the Affordable Care Act for Persons With Criminal Legal Involvement: A Scoping Review.

Importance: By expanding health insurance to millions of people in the US, the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) may have important health, economic, and social welfare implications for people with criminal legal involvement-a population with disproportionately high morbidity and mortality rates. Objective: To scope the literature for studies assessing the association of any provision of the ACA with 5 types of outcomes, including insurance coverage rates, access to care, health outcomes, costs of care, and social welfare outcomes among people with criminal legal involvement. Evidence Review: The literature search included results from PubMed, CINAHL Complete, APA Psycinfo, Embase, Social Science Database, and Web of Science and was conducted to include articles from January 1, 2014, through December 31, 2023. Only original empirical studies were included, but there were no restrictions on study design. Findings: Of the 3538 studies initially identified for potential inclusion, the final sample included 19 studies. These 19 studies differed substantially in their definition of criminal legal involvement and units of analysis. The studies also varied with respect to study design, but difference-in-differences methods were used in 10 of the included studies. With respect to outcomes, 100 unique outcomes were identified across the 19 studies, with at least 1 in all 5 outcome categories determined prior to the literature search. Health insurance coverage and access to care were the most frequently studied outcomes. Results for the other 3 outcome categories were mixed, potentially due to heterogeneous definitions of populations, interventions, and outcomes and to limitations in the availability of individual-level datasets that link incarceration data with health-related data. Conclusions and Relevance: In this scoping review, the ACA was associated with an increase in insurance coverage and a decrease in recidivism rates among people with criminal legal involvement. Future research and data collection are needed to understand more fully health and nonhealth outcomes among people with criminal legal involvement related to the ACA and other health insurance policies-as well as the mechanisms underlying these relationships.

THE ROLE OF HEALTH POLICY IN IMPROVING HEALTH OUTCOMES AND HEALTH EQUITY.

Despite higher per-capita health care spending than any other country, the United States lags far behind in health outcomes. Additionally, there are significant health inequities by race, ethnicity, socioeconomic position, and rurality. One set of potential solutions to improve these outcomes and reduce inequities is through health policy. Policy focused on improving access to care through insurance coverage, such as the Affordable Care Act's Medicaid expansion, has led to better health and reduced mortality. Policy aimed at improving health care delivery, including value-based payment and alternative payment models, has improved quality of care but has had little impact on population health outcomes. Policies that influence broader issues of economic opportunity likely have a strong influence on health, but lack the evidence base of more targeted interventions. To advance health outcomes and equity, further policy change is crucial.

Impact of medicaid expansion on cervical cancer screening: A state-specific difference in difference analysis.

OBJECTIVE: In 2014 the Affordable Care Act expanded Medicaid coverage in states that opted to participate. Limited data are available describing the effect of Medicaid expansion on cancer screening. The objective of our study was to evaluate trends in cervical cancer screening associated with Medicaid expansion. METHODS: Using data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, we identified female respondents ages 30-64 years with a household income below $35,000. The outcome measure was guideline-adherent cervical cancer screening. The years 2010 and 2012 constituted the pre-expansion period while 2016 and 2018 were used to capture the post-expansion period. A difference-in-difference (DID) analysis was performed to assess changes in cervical cancer screening in Medicaid expansion states compared to non-expansion states, for the overall sample and for each expansion state individually. RESULTS: The overall DID analysis showed a greater increase in cervical cancer screening by 1.1 percentage points (95% CI: 0.1 to 2.0%, P = 0.03) in expansion states compared to non-expansion states. The analysis comparing individual expansion states to non-expansion states showed that 6 expansion states had a significantly higher increase in screening relative to non-expansion states: Oregon (8.5%, P < 0.001), Kentucky (4.5%, P = 0.001), Washington (4.2%, P = 0.002), Colorado (4.3%, P = 0.008), Nevada (4.7%, P = 0.048), and Ohio (2.8%, P = 0.03). Of these states, 5 ranked among the states with the lowest baseline screening rates. CONCLUSIONS: Medicaid expansion states experienced a greater increase in cervical cancer screening relative to non-expansion states. Expansion states with lower baseline screening rates experienced greater increases in screening after expanding Medicaid.

Looking Toward the Future of Integrated Care: History, Developments, and Opportunities.

For almost five decades, the development and implementation of integrated care-the simultaneous combination of primary care with mental health and substance use care-has been a major challenge for the behavioral health care field. Integrated care is exceptionally important because many people with behavioral health conditions also have chronic physical health conditions. Early research findings in the mid-1980s showed that persons with mental illness are likely to develop chronic physical conditions earlier and more severely than other people. These findings precipitated efforts to understand this problem and to develop further appropriate integrated care solutions. Subsequently, the US Surgeon General made care integration a major focus of his landmark 1999 Report on Mental Health, as did the 2008 Mental Health Parity and Addiction Equity Act and the 2010 Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. However, it was not until 2014, and later, that integrated care actually began to be implemented more broadly. This article reviews these major developmental milestones, examines current activities, and explores likely developments over the next several years. Major current issues include the response to the COVID-19 pandemic, adjusting to its effects on the behavioral health care workforce, and the growing realization that behavioral health care must address the social determinants of life. Likely developments over the next several years will include devising ways to address our workforce crisis, developing effective community interventions, and implementing population health management strategies; implementing the CMS Innovation in Behavioral Health Model; improving reimbursement practices; and exploring the potential of AI for integrated care. Implications for future service organization and training of behavioral health care providers also are discussed. Granted the severity of the current workforce crisis in behavioral health care, urgent efforts are needed to advance the deployment of integrated care in the short-term future.

Association Between State Medicaid Policies and Accrual of Black or Hispanic Patients to Cancer Clinical Trials.

PURPOSE: It is unknown whether Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) or state-level policies mandating Medicaid coverage of the routine costs of clinical trial participation have ameliorated longstanding racial and ethnic disparities in cancer clinical trial enrollment. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective, cross-sectional difference-in-differences analysis examining the effect of Medicaid expansion on rates of enrollment for Black or Hispanic nonelderly adults in nonobservational, US cancer clinical trials using data from Medidata's Rave platform for 2012-2019. We examined heterogeneity in this effect on the basis of whether states had pre-existing mandates requiring Medicaid coverage of the routine costs of clinical trial participation. RESULTS: The study included 47,870 participants across 1,353 clinical trials and 344 clinical trial sites. In expansion states, the proportion of participants who were Black or Hispanic increased from 16.7% before expansion to 17.2% after Medicaid expansion (0.5 percentage point [PP] change [95% CI, -1.1 to 2.0]). In nonexpansion states, this proportion increased from 19.8% before 2014 (when the first states expanded eligibility under the ACA) to 20.4% after 2014 (0.6 PP change [95% CI, -2.3 to 3.5]). These trends yielded a nonsignificant difference-in-differences estimate of 0.9 PP (95% CI, -2.6 to 4.4). Medicaid expansion was associated with a 5.3 PP (95% CI, 1.9 to 8.7) increase in the enrollment of Black or Hispanic participants in states with mandates requiring Medicaid coverage of the routine costs of trial participation, but not in states without mandates (-0.3 PP [95% CI, -4.5 to 3.9]). CONCLUSION: Medicaid expansion was not associated with a significant increase in the proportion of Black or Hispanic oncology trial participants overall, but was associated with an increase specifically in states that mandated Medicaid coverage of the routine costs of trial participation.

Overlap In Carriers And Networks In Medicaid And The Individual Marketplaces.

As people lose Medicaid because of the end of the COVID-19 public health emergency, many states will route former Medicaid managed care enrollees into Affordable Care Act Marketplace coverage with the same carrier. In 2021, 52.1 percent of Medicaid managed care enrollees were enrolled by a carrier that also had a plan on the Marketplace in the same county.