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1.
PLoS One ; 19(8): e0308218, 2024.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39088518

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: In 2018, Scotland became the second country to implement minimum unit pricing (MUP) for all types of alcoholic beverages. The aim of this study was to examine the effect of the policy. METHOD: Three national household-level surveys were used: Scottish Health Surveys (2008-2021), Health Surveys in England (2011-2019), and Northern Ireland Continuous Household Survey (2011-2015). First, a generalized ordered logistic model examined patterns of drinking solely in Scotland from 2008-2021 covering current drinking, drinking categories and the weekly consumption (in alcohol units). Secondly, difference-in-difference (DID) analysis was employed to examine changes in "social drinking" behaviours in Scotland after the announcement in 2012 (2011-2015, Northern Ireland and England as comparators) and after the adoption of the policy in 2018 (England as a comparator, with two timeframes 2016-2019 and 2013-2019). RESULTS: Overall, drinking in Scotland began to decline prior to 2012 and dropped further with the enactment of MUP in 2018. In response to MUP, the likelihood of abstention increased along with a slight decrease in the prevalence of heavy drinking. The overall amount of drinking fell by about 8% after 2012 and 12% after 2018 (as compared to 2008-2011 level), with a significant decline seen in moderate drinkers but not of those who drank at hazardous or harmful levels. The DID analyses confirmed the reduction in current drinking in Scotland starting since 2012 and continued post-MUP in 2018. CONCLUSION: This study points to the impact of MUP in Scotland with a potential role for 'policy signalling' by the Scottish Government's with a multiple-buy discount ban and MUP's announcement since 2011-2012. Indications of impact include a clear decline in alcohol consumption levels and a small but noteworthy change in prevalence of overall drinking and heavy drinking.


Subject(s)
Alcohol Drinking , Alcoholic Beverages , Scotland/epidemiology , Humans , Alcohol Drinking/epidemiology , Alcohol Drinking/economics , Male , Female , Adult , Alcoholic Beverages/economics , Middle Aged , Young Adult , Adolescent , Costs and Cost Analysis , Prevalence , Aged , Health Surveys
2.
BMC Med Educ ; 24(1): 830, 2024 Aug 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39090574

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Radiological imaging has played an important role in diagnostic medicine for over a century, though it is known to contribute to dermatological conditions, cataracts, and cancer. The associated risk of harm has led to the introduction of protective regulations around the world. Present-day NHS clinicians are increasingly requesting and relying on diagnostic imaging. Knowledge surrounding the radiation doses of common radiological investigations and the associated risks is imperative, and on a global level has been found to be inadequate. Consequently, there is a need for the formal inclusion of teaching within training programmes. AIMS/OBJECTIVES: This prospective audit aims to establish the knowledge of radiation doses and risks of common radiological investigations of both medical students and referrers within four NHS Health Boards based in the North of Scotland. It also seeks to establish prior teaching and the preference for further educational interventions. AUDIT STANDARD: Referrers should have adequate knowledge of radiation doses and the risks associated with common radiological investigations. AUDIT TARGET: The standard should be achieved by 90% of referrers. METHODS: A 19-question online survey was devised to include subjective and objective questions on ionising radiation awareness, education preference, and respondent demographics, based on RCR (Royal College of Radiologists) audit criteria and previous studies. Data collection was conducted between the 22/02/23 to the 22/03/2023 and the questionnaire was distributed to senior medical students and radiological referrers of different grades within NHS Grampian, NHS Highland, NHS Shetland, and NHS Orkney. A descriptive analysis of the data was undertaken using Microsoft Excel Version 16.71. RESULTS: Two hundred eight questionnaires were completed. 22.11% (n = 46) of the sample population had received no prior teaching on the topic of ionising radiation. Over half of the respondents (51.92%, n = 108) rated the importance of radiation risks as either important or extremely important, with 69.71% (n = 145) of participants rating their perceived knowledge as limited or average. Most correctly identified that a CT scan (n = 203), PET-CT scan (n = 199) and a chest x-ray (n = 196) exposed patients to ionising radiation. A small proportion of the participants incorrectly thought that an MRI scan (n = 21) and an ultrasound scan (n = 2) involved ionising radiation. The results obtained failed to meet the RCR audit target, which states that 90% of doctors should be aware of common radiological doses. It was observed that only 17.79% (n = 37) of survey respondents scored over 50% in the knowledge assessment, with the median knowledge score of the whole cohort being 2.5 out of 9 (27.78%). Respondents who had prior teaching on the topic performed better those who had no prior teaching, with average scores of 3.19 (35.44%) and 2.04 (22.67%) respectively. Senior clinicians performed better when compared to junior clinicians and medical students. CONCLUSION & FUTURE RECOMMENDATIONS: This audit found that the knowledge of radiation risks within the North of Scotland in the selected sample population was insufficient across all levels of the clinical team. Further, continuous education around the topic and future audit opportunities may help to optimise knowledge and training.


Subject(s)
Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice , Radiation Dosage , Students, Medical , Humans , Scotland , Prospective Studies , Female , Referral and Consultation , Male , Surveys and Questionnaires , Adult , Medical Audit
3.
Glob Chang Biol ; 30(7): e17400, 2024 Jul.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39007244

ABSTRACT

Species exploiting seasonal environments must alter timings of key life-history events in response to large-scale climatic changes in order to maintain trophic synchrony with required resources. Yet, substantial among-species variation in long-term phenological changes has been observed. Advancing from simply describing such variation towards predicting future phenological responses requires studies that rigorously quantify and explain variation in the direction and magnitude of changing timings across diverse species in relation to key ecological and life-history variables. Accordingly, we fitted multi-quantile regressions to 59 years of multi-species data on spring and autumn bird migration timings through northern Scotland. We demonstrate substantial variation in changes in timings among 72 species, and tested whether such variation can be explained by species ecology, life-history and changes in local abundance. Consistent with predictions, species that advanced their migration timing in one or both seasons had more seasonally restricted diet types, fewer suitable breeding habitat types, shorter generation lengths and capability to produce multiple offspring broods per year. In contrast, species with less seasonally restricted diet types and that produce single annual offspring broods, showed no change. Meanwhile, contrary to prediction, long-distance and short-distance migrants advanced migration timings similarly. Changes in migration timing also varied with changes in local migratory abundance, such that species with increasing seasonal abundance apparently altered their migration timing, whilst species with decreasing abundance did not. Such patterns broadly concur with expectation given adaptive changes in migration timing. However, we demonstrate that similar patterns can be generated by numerical sampling given changing local abundances. Any apparent phenology-abundance relationships should, therefore, be carefully validated and interpreted. Overall, our results show that migrant bird species with differing ecologies and life-histories showed systematically differing phenological changes over six decades contextualised by large-scale environmental changes, potentially facilitating future predictions and altering temporal dynamics of seasonal species co-occurrences.


Subject(s)
Animal Migration , Birds , Seasons , Animals , Animal Migration/physiology , Birds/physiology , Scotland , Ecosystem , Life History Traits , Climate Change , Diet
4.
BMC Health Serv Res ; 24(1): 812, 2024 Jul 15.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39004735

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Innovation for reforming health and social care is high on the policy agenda in the United Kingdom in response to the growing needs of an ageing population. However, information about new innovations of care being implemented is sparse. METHODS: We mapped innovations for people in later life in two regions, North East England and South East Scotland. Data collection included discussions with stakeholders (n = 51), semi-structured interviews (n = 14) and website searches that focused on technology, evaluation and health inequalities. We analysed qualitative data using framework and thematic analyses. Quantitative data were analysed descriptively. RESULTS: One hundred eleven innovations were identified across the two regions. Interviewees reported a wide range of technologies that had been rapidly introduced during the COVID-19 pandemic and many remained in use. Digital exclusion of certain groups of older people was an ongoing concern. Innovations fell into two groups; system-level ones that aimed to alleviate systems pressures such as preventing hospital (re)admissions, and patient-level ones which sought to enhance health and wellbeing directly. Interviewees were aware of the importance of health inequalities but lacked data to monitor the impact of innovations on these, and evaluation was challenging due to lack of time, training, and support. Quantitative findings revealed that two thirds of innovations (n = 74, 67%) primarily focused on the system level, whilst a third (n = 37, 33%) primarily focused on the patient-level. Overall, over half (n = 65, 59%) of innovations involved technologies although relatively few (n = 12, 11%) utilised advanced technologies. Very few (n = 16, 14%) focused on reducing health inequalities, and only a minority of innovations (n = 43, 39%) had undergone evaluation (most of which were conducted by the service providers themselves). CONCLUSIONS: We found a wide range of innovative care services being developed for people in later life, yet alignment with key policy priorities, such as addressing health inequalities, was limited. There was a strong focus on technology, with little consideration for the potential to widen the health inequality gap. The absence of robust evaluation was also a concern as most innovations were implemented without support to monitor effectiveness and/or without plans for sustainability and spread.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Humans , COVID-19/epidemiology , Aged , United Kingdom , SARS-CoV-2 , Scotland , England , Social Work/organization & administration , Qualitative Research , Organizational Innovation , Pandemics , Interviews as Topic
5.
Mar Pollut Bull ; 205: 116627, 2024 Aug.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38968745

ABSTRACT

This paper uses a particle tracking model to simulate the distribution of fishing-related marine-sourced plastic litter from demersal trawling activities along the Atlantic coast of Scotland. The modelled fishing litter dispersed widely across the region, with ∼50% of the particles beaching along the northwestern Scottish coast after a year-long simulation. The model was tuned using observations of beached litter loadings along the same coastline to estimate the annual input, by mass, of small (<1 kg) plastic litter. Model results suggest that between 107 g and 280 g of small fishing-related litter enters the ocean per hour of fishing, resulting in an estimated 234 t to 614 t of small fishing-related litter entering the ocean annually on the Scottish west coast. These results suggest that fishing on the Atlantic coast of Scotland may be a significant source of marine plastic. However, more modelled and observational data are required to reduce uncertainty.


Subject(s)
Bathing Beaches , Environmental Monitoring , Fisheries , Plastics , Plastics/analysis , Scotland , Water Pollutants, Chemical/analysis
6.
Age Ageing ; 53(7)2024 Jul 02.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38970550

ABSTRACT

The Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network (SIGN) have recently published their guideline SIGN168 on 'Assessment, Diagnosis, Care, and Support for People with Dementia and their Carers'. The guideline makes evidence-based recommendations for best practice in the assessment, care and support of adults living with dementia. Topics featured in this guideline are limited to those prioritised by stakeholders, especially people with lived and living experience, and those not well covered under pre-existing guidance. We summarise the guideline recommendations related to identification and diagnosis of dementia, investigative procedures, postdiagnostic support living with dementia, including non-pharmacological approaches for distressed behaviours, using technology to support people with dementia, grief and dementia and changing needs of people with dementia. The guideline content is summarised as officially published, with additional commentary in the final section.


Subject(s)
Caregivers , Dementia , Humans , Dementia/diagnosis , Dementia/therapy , Dementia/psychology , Caregivers/psychology , Social Support , Scotland
7.
PLoS One ; 19(7): e0295485, 2024.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39024313

ABSTRACT

The three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) is a teleost fish and a model organism in evolutionary ecology, useful for both laboratory and natural experiments. It is especially valued for the substantial intraspecific variation in morphology, behaviour and genetics. Classic work of Swarup (1958) has described the development in the laboratory of embryos from a single freshwater population, but this was carried out at higher temperature than many stickleback would encounter in the wild and variation between populations was not addressed. Here we describe the development of embryos from two sympatric, saltwater ecotypes of stickleback from North Uist, Scotland raised at 14°C, the approximate temperature of North Uist lochs in the breeding season. The two ecotypes were (a) a large, migratory form in which the adults are completely plated with bony armour and (b) a smaller, low-plated form that is resident year-round in saltwater lagoons. By monitoring embryos every 24-hours post fertilisation, important characteristics of development were observed and photographed to provide a reference for North Uist ecotypes at this temperature. Hatching success was greater than 85% and did not differ between resident and migratory stickleback, but migratory eggs hatched significantly earlier than the resident ecotype. Our work provides a framework that can now be used to compare stickleback populations that may also grow in distinct environmental conditions, to help understand the breadth of normal developmental features and to characterise abnormal development.


Subject(s)
Animal Migration , Smegmamorpha , Animals , Smegmamorpha/physiology , Smegmamorpha/growth & development , Animal Migration/physiology , Temperature , Scotland , Embryo, Nonmammalian , Ecotype , Female
8.
Vet Rec ; 195(1): 5, 2024 Jul 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38967190
9.
Harm Reduct J ; 21(1): 128, 2024 Jul 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38951880

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Deaths due to drug overdose are an international issue, causing an estimated 128,000 global deaths in 2019. Scotland has the highest rate of drug-related deaths in Europe, with those in the most deprived areas at greater risk than those in affluent areas. There is a paucity of research on digital solutions, particularly from the perspective of those who use drugs who additionally access harm reduction and homelessness support services. The Digital Lifelines Scotland programme (DLS) provides vulnerable people who use/d drugs with digital devices to connect with services. METHODS: This paper reports on the evaluation of the DLS from the perspective of service users who accessed services for those at risk of drug-related harms. A mixed methods approach was used including an online-survey (n = 19) and semi-structured interviews (n = 21). Survey data were analysed descriptively and interview data through inductive coding, informed by the Technology, People, Organisations and Macroenvironmental factors (TPOM) framework, to investigate the use, access, and availability of devices, and people's experiences and perceptions of them. RESULTS: Most participants lived in social/council housing (63.2%, n = 12), many lived alone (68.4%, n = 13). They were mainly over 40 years old and lived in a city. Participants described a desire for data privacy, knowledge, and education, and placed a nascent social and personal value on digital devices. Participants pointed to the person-centred individuality of the service provision as one of the reasons to routinely engage with services. Service users experienced an increased sense of value and there was a palpable sense of community, connection and belonging developed through the programme, including interaction with services and devices. CONCLUSIONS: This paper presents a unique perspective which documents the experiences of service users on the DLS. Participants illustrated a desire for life improvement and a collective and individual feeling of responsibility towards themselves and digital devices. Digital inclusion has the potential to provide avenues by which service users can safely and constructively access services and society to improve outcomes. This paper provides a foundation to further cultivate the insight of service users on digital solutions in this emerging area.


Subject(s)
Digital Technology , Harm Reduction , Humans , Scotland , Female , Male , Adult , Middle Aged , Drug Overdose/prevention & control , Drug Users/psychology , Young Adult , Ill-Housed Persons , Substance-Related Disorders , Surveys and Questionnaires
10.
BMC Infect Dis ; 24(1): 670, 2024 Jul 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38965495

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The clinical benefit of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) treatments against new circulating variants remains unclear. We sought to describe characteristics and clinical outcomes of highest risk patients with COVID-19 receiving early COVID-19 treatments in Scotland. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study of non-hospitalized patients diagnosed with COVID-19 from December 1, 2021-October 25, 2022, using Scottish administrative health data. We included adult patients who met ≥ 1 of the National Health Service highest risk criteria for early COVID-19 treatment and received outpatient treatment with sotrovimab, nirmatrelvir/ritonavir or molnupiravir, or no early COVID-19 treatment. Index date was defined as the earliest of COVID-19 diagnosis or early COVID-19 treatment. Baseline characteristics and acute clinical outcomes in the 28 days following index were reported. Values of ≤ 5 were suppressed. RESULTS: In total, 2548 patients were included (492: sotrovimab, 276: nirmatrelvir/ritonavir, 71: molnupiravir, and 1709: eligible highest risk untreated). Patients aged ≥ 75 years accounted for 6.9% (n = 34/492), 21.0% (n = 58/276), 16.9% (n = 12/71) and 13.2% (n = 225/1709) of the cohorts, respectively. Advanced renal disease was reported in 6.7% (n = 33/492) of sotrovimab-treated and 4.7% (n = 81/1709) of untreated patients, and ≤ 5 nirmatrelvir/ritonavir-treated and molnupiravir-treated patients. All-cause hospitalizations were experienced by 5.3% (n = 25/476) of sotrovimab-treated patients, 6.9% (n = 12/175) of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir-treated patients, ≤ 5 (suppressed number) molnupiravir-treated patients and 13.3% (n = 216/1622) of untreated patients. There were no deaths in the treated cohorts; mortality was 4.3% (n = 70/1622) among untreated patients. CONCLUSIONS: Sotrovimab was often used by patients who were aged < 75 years. Among patients receiving early COVID-19 treatment, proportions of 28-day all-cause hospitalization and death were low.


Subject(s)
Antiviral Agents , COVID-19 Drug Treatment , COVID-19 , Disease Progression , SARS-CoV-2 , Humans , Antiviral Agents/therapeutic use , Retrospective Studies , Male , Female , Middle Aged , Aged , SARS-CoV-2/drug effects , COVID-19/mortality , Adult , Treatment Outcome , Scotland/epidemiology , Antibodies, Monoclonal, Humanized/therapeutic use , Ritonavir/therapeutic use , Aged, 80 and over , Cytidine/analogs & derivatives , Hydroxylamines
11.
PLoS One ; 19(7): e0297598, 2024.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38968194

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Over 30,000 people experience out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in the United Kingdom annually, with only 7-8% of patients surviving. One of the most effective methods of improving survival outcomes is bystander intervention in the form of calling the emergency services and initiating chest compressions. Additionally, the public must feel empowered to act and use this knowledge in an emergency. This study aimed to evaluate an ultra-brief CPR familiarisation video that uses empowering social priming language to frame CPR as a norm in Scotland. METHODS: In a randomised control trial, participants (n = 86) were assigned to view an ultra-brief CPR video intervention or a traditional long-form CPR video intervention. Following completion of a pre-intervention questionnaire examining demographic variables and prior CPR knowledge, participants completed an emergency services-led resuscitation simulation in a portable simulation suite using a CPR manikin that measures resuscitation quality. Participants then completed questionnaires examining social identity and attitudes towards performing CPR. RESULTS: During the simulated resuscitation, the ultra-brief intervention group's cumulative time spent performing chest compressions was significantly higher than that observed in the long-form intervention group. The long-form intervention group's average compressions per minute rate was significantly higher than the ultra-brief intervention group, however both scores fell within a clinically acceptable range. No other differences were observed in CPR quality. Regarding the social identity measures, participants in the ultra-brief condition had greater feelings of expected emergency support from other Scottish people when compared to long-form intervention participants. There were no significant group differences in attitudes towards performing CPR. CONCLUSIONS: Socially primed, ultra-brief CPR interventions hold promise as a method of equipping the public with basic resuscitation skills and empowering the viewer to intervene in an emergency. These interventions may be an effective avenue for equipping at-risk groups with resuscitation skills and for supplementing traditional resuscitation training.


Subject(s)
Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation , Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest , Humans , Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation/education , Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation/methods , Male , Female , Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest/therapy , Middle Aged , Adult , Surveys and Questionnaires , Video Recording , Scotland , Emergency Medical Services , Aged , Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice
12.
PLoS One ; 19(7): e0305211, 2024.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38968222

ABSTRACT

Staphylococcus pseudintermedius is an opportunistic pathogen in dogs, and infection in humans is increasingly found, often linked to contact with dogs. We conducted a retrospective genotyping and antimicrobial susceptibility testing study of 406 S. pseudintermedius isolates cultured from animals (dogs, cats and an otter) and humans across Scotland, from 2007 to 2020. Seventy-five sequence types (STs) were identified, among the 130 isolates genotyped, with 59 seen only once. We observed the emergence of two methicillin resistant Staphylococcus pseudintermedius (MRSP) clones in Scotland: ST726, a novel locally-evolving clone, and ST551, first reported in 2015 in Poland, possibly linked to animal importation to Scotland from Central Europe. While ST71 was the most frequent S. pseudintermedius strain detected, other lineages that have been replacing ST71 in other countries, in addition to ST551, were detected. Multidrug resistance (MDR) was detected in 96.4% of MRSP and 8.4% of MSSP. A single MRSP isolate was resistant to mupirocin. Continuous surveillance for the emergence and dissemination of novel MDR MRSP in animals and humans and changes in antimicrobial susceptibility in S. pseudintermedius is warranted to minimise the threat to animal and human health.


Subject(s)
Methicillin Resistance , Pets , Staphylococcal Infections , Staphylococcus , Whole Genome Sequencing , Animals , Scotland , Staphylococcus/genetics , Staphylococcus/drug effects , Staphylococcus/isolation & purification , Dogs/microbiology , Cats/microbiology , Staphylococcal Infections/microbiology , Staphylococcal Infections/veterinary , Staphylococcal Infections/epidemiology , Humans , Methicillin Resistance/genetics , Pets/microbiology , Anti-Bacterial Agents/pharmacology , Microbial Sensitivity Tests , Retrospective Studies , Dog Diseases/microbiology , Drug Resistance, Multiple, Bacterial/genetics , Cat Diseases/microbiology
13.
Front Public Health ; 12: 1391084, 2024.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38962765

ABSTRACT

Introduction: Under the backdrop of pervasive health inequalities, public health professionals, researchers and non-academic partners in the United Kingdom are mobilising to understand how and in what ways community assets can address health disparities at scale in complex systems. While there is recognition that cultural, natural and community resources can improve health outcomes, these are unequally dispersed with lack of integration in communities and health and social care systems. Researching Evidence-based Alternatives in Living, Imaginative, Traumatised, Integrated, Embodied Systems (REALITIES) is a participatory action research Scottish consortium of 57 with established community asset hubs in five localities with strong relationships uniting conflicting ways of seeing the world. Our collective of lived and felt experience community members, community-embedded researchers, academics and non-academics draws upon a variety of practices, methods, datasets and philosophies to expand existing approaches to tackling health inequalities. Methods: We present conceptual and theoretical underpinnings for our co-produced systems-level model and empirical findings from testing REALITIES across three disadvantaged localities (November 2022, ongoing). After explaining the context that led to the development of the new scalable REALITIES model for integrated public systems to interface with 'assets', we detail philosophical pillars and guiding principles for our model and how we applied these mechanisms to explain how integrated partnership working can lead to improved health outcomes across multiple public systems. Results: We present a meta-analysis from co-producing and testing the model, showing how measuring change in complex public systems involves critical investigation of People, Process, Place, Price, Power and Purpose. Our critique reflects on power imbalances and inequities in Research-practice-Policy (RPP) partnerships and suggestions for how to nurture healthy ecosystems: overcoming barriers and enabling participation; reflecting on challenges of scaling up, testability and complexity of RPP partnerships; moving from siloed learning to transdisciplinary collaboration in practice; ensuring knowledge exchange has direct impact on communities and frontline practitioners; embedding relational ethics and safeguarding into daily practice. Discussion: We propose the REALITIES model to unite alternative, sometimes conflicting, ways of thinking about public systems and community assets by continuously reflecting on entanglements between different assumptions about knowledge, reality, evidence, and unnecessary binaries between creative methodologies and scientific method.


Subject(s)
Health Status Disparities , Humans , Scotland , Evidence-Based Practice , Health Services Research , Healthcare Disparities , United Kingdom
15.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39063418

ABSTRACT

The total fertility rate is influenced over an extended period of time by shifts in population socioeconomic characteristics and attitudes and values. However, it may be impacted by macroeconomic trends in the short term, although these effects are likely to be minimal when fertility is low. With the objective of forecasting monthly deliveries, this study concentrates on the analysis of registered births in Scotland. Through this approach, we examine the significance of precisely forecasting fertility trends, which can subsequently aid in the anticipation of demand in diverse sectors by allowing policymakers to anticipate changes in population dynamics and customize policies to tackle emerging demographic challenges. Consequently, this has implications for fiscal stability, national economic accounts and the environment. In conducting our analysis, we incorporated non-linear machine learning methods alongside traditional statistical approaches to forecast monthly births in an out-of-sample exercise that occurs one step in advance. The outcomes underscore the efficacy of machine learning in generating precise predictions within this particular domain. In sum, this research will comprehensively demonstrate a cutting-edge model of machine learning that utilizes several attributes to assist in clinical decision-making, predict potential complications during pregnancy and choose the appropriate delivery method, as well as help in medical diagnosis and treatment.


Subject(s)
Birth Rate , Forecasting , Machine Learning , Scotland , Humans , Forecasting/methods , Birth Rate/trends , Female , Algorithms , Pregnancy
16.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39063420

ABSTRACT

Physical inactivity contributes to over 800,000 deaths annually. Numerous non-pharmacological interventions provide a route to address this behavioural risk factor linked to the growth of non-communicable diseases. Here, we consider a nature-based intervention, specifically group outdoor health walks (GOHW), as a non-pharmacological intervention to increase physical activity and contribute to health and quality of life amongst older adults. We used the theoretically grounded Capability, Opportunity, Motivation, and Behaviour (COM-B) model as a lens to examine interviews with participants in a GOHW with an activity tracker and signposted by health clinics in Scotland, UK. Analysis identified capabilities, opportunities, and motivations, their impact on behaviour, and perceived physical and mental health. The application of the COM-B model to intervention evaluation allowed us to examine two separate behaviours, that of (i) engaging with the intervention itself, and (ii) incorporating the behaviour into one's life that the intervention targets. Analysis identified emerging capabilities, opportunities, and motivations that supported additional health-promoting behaviours, including increased time outdoors in nature and leadership to self-organise continued group walks. We offer insight into the design of nature-based interventions to effectively engage older adults with chronic health conditions and foster personal behaviour change for health and well-being.


Subject(s)
Exercise , Health Promotion , Motivation , Humans , Aged , Health Promotion/methods , Female , Male , Scotland , Middle Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Qualitative Research , Walking/psychology , Health Behavior , Quality of Life
17.
Int J Prison Health (2024) ; 20(2): 143-155, 2024 May 29.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38984599

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: The purpose of this paper is to examine lived experiences of opioid agonist treatment (OAT) during and immediately following release from detention in prisons in England and Scotland. DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH: Surveys were completed by serving prisoners in both countries and by those recently released from prison (England only). The survey findings were discussed in focus groups of people with lived experience. The combined findings from the surveys and focus groups were shared with an expert group of prison OAT providers and people with lived experience with the purpose of making recommendations for more accessible and effective OAT in custodial environments and continuity of OAT on release. FINDINGS: The quality and accessibility of OAT varied considerably between establishments. It was reported to be harder to access OAT in Scottish prisons. It was often hard for people in prison to get the dosage of OAT they felt they needed and it was generally harder to access buprenorphine than methadone in English prisons. Only Scottish people in prison were aware of long-lasting forms of buprenorphine. People in English prisons had mixed experiences of the help available in prison, with no improvement recorded since a 2016 study. People in Scottish prisons were more likely to rate the help available as poor. RESEARCH LIMITATIONS/IMPLICATIONS: The number of people accessed while actually in prison (73) was reduced by the impact of the pandemic, making it more difficult to access people in prison and because some were resistant to participating on the basis that they had already been consulted for a wide variety of research projects focused on the impact of COVID. The Scottish cohort (a total of 19 individuals comprising 14 survey respondents and five focus group members) is clearly too small a number on which to base robust claims about differences in OAT provision between the English and Scottish prison systems.. PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS: The study identifies key barriers to accessing OAT in prisons and suggests key components of more user-friendly approaches. SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS: This study provides an overview of the recent lived experiences of people accessing OAT in prison and on release and offers valuable recommendations on how to make service provision more effective and consistent. ORIGINALITY/VALUE: This study provides an overview of the recent lived experiences of people accessing OAT in prison and on release in England and Scotland and offers valuable recommendations on how to make service provision more effective and consistent.


Subject(s)
Health Services Accessibility , Methadone , Opiate Substitution Treatment , Opioid-Related Disorders , Prisoners , Humans , Scotland , England , Prisoners/psychology , Prisoners/statistics & numerical data , Opioid-Related Disorders/drug therapy , Opioid-Related Disorders/epidemiology , Opioid-Related Disorders/psychology , Male , Methadone/therapeutic use , Female , Adult , Buprenorphine/therapeutic use , Prisons , Focus Groups , Surveys and Questionnaires , Middle Aged , Analgesics, Opioid/therapeutic use
18.
Parasite ; 31: 43, 2024.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39082879

ABSTRACT

Anisakid nematodes are a globally distributed group of marine mammal parasites. Kogiid whales, including the pygmy sperm whale Kogia breviceps, host an assemblage of specific anisakid species. Currently, three species are known to be specific to kogiid hosts, i.e., Skrjabinisakis paggiae, S. brevispiculata, and the less studied Pseudoterranova ceticola. The aim of this study was to investigate the species diversity of anisakid nematodes sampled from a pygmy sperm whale stranded in 2013 at the edge of its distribution range in the Northeast Atlantic, specifically in the North of Scotland. Nematodes were assigned to genus level based on morphology and identified by sequence analysis of the mtDNA cox2 gene and the rDNA ITS region. The present finding represents the first observation of syntopic occurrence of adult stages of S. brevispiculata, S. paggiae, and P. ceticola in a pygmy sperm whale in the Northeast Atlantic, and represent the northernmost record of these species in this area. Skrjabinisakis brevispiculata was the most abundant species, accounting for 55% of the identified nematodes, predominantly in the adult stage. Anisakis simplex (s.s.) was also abundant, with most specimens in the preadult stage, followed by S. paggiae and P. ceticola. The pygmy sperm whale is rarely documented in Scottish waters, and its occurrence in the area could suggest expansion of its geographic range. The presence of S. brevispiculata, S. paggiae, and P. ceticola in this whale species in this region may indicate a shift in the whole host community involved in the life cycle of these parasites in northern waters. However, it is also plausible that these parasites were acquired while the whale was feeding in more southern regions, before migrating northbound.


Title: Diversité des parasites Anisakidae chez un cachalot pygmée, Kogia breviceps (Cetacea : Kogiidae) échoué à la limite de son aire de répartition dans l'Atlantique Nord-Est. Abstract: Les nématodes Anisakidae sont un groupe de parasites de mammifères marins réparti dans le monde entier. Les cétacés Kogiidae, y compris le cachalot pygmée Kogia breviceps, hébergent un assemblage d'espèces d'Anisakidae spécifiques. Actuellement, trois espèces sont connues pour être spécifiques aux hôtes Kogiidae, à savoir Skrjabinisakis paggiae, S. brevispiculata et Pseudoterranova ceticola, la moins étudiée. Le but de cette étude était d'étudier la diversité des espèces de nématodes Anisakidae échantillonnés sur un cachalot pygmée échoué en 2013 à la limite de son aire de répartition dans l'Atlantique Nord-Est, plus précisément au nord de l'Écosse. Les nématodes ont été attribués au niveau du genre en fonction de la morphologie et identifiés par analyse de séquence du gène cox2 de l'ADNmt et de la région ITS de l'ADNr. La présente découverte représente la première observation de l'apparition syntopique de stades adultes de S. brevispiculata, S. paggiae et P. ceticola chez un cachalot pygmée dans l'océan Atlantique Nord-Est, et représente le signalement le plus septentrional de ces espèces dans cette zone. Skrjabinisakis brevispiculata était l'espèce la plus abondante, représentant 55% des nématodes identifiés, principalement au stade adulte. Anisakis simplex (s.s.) était également abondant, la plupart des spécimens étant au stade préadulte, suivi par S. paggiae et P. ceticola. Le cachalot pygmée est rarement documenté dans les eaux écossaises et sa présence dans la région pourrait suggérer une expansion de son aire de répartition géographique. La présence de S. brevispiculata, S. paggiae et P. ceticola chez cette espèce de cachalot dans cette région peut indiquer un changement dans l'ensemble de la communauté hôte impliquée dans le cycle de vie de ces parasites dans les eaux nordiques. Cependant, il est également plausible que ces parasites aient été acquis alors que le cachalot se nourrissait dans des régions plus au sud, avant de migrer vers le nord.


Subject(s)
Anisakis , Whales , Animals , Atlantic Ocean , Anisakis/genetics , Anisakis/classification , Anisakis/isolation & purification , Whales/parasitology , Anisakiasis/veterinary , Anisakiasis/parasitology , DNA, Mitochondrial/genetics , Phylogeny , Scotland , Male , Female , Ascaridida Infections/veterinary , Ascaridida Infections/parasitology , Ascaridida Infections/epidemiology , Biodiversity
19.
PLoS One ; 19(7): e0306541, 2024.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39083454

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: In May 2020, England implemented soft 'opt-out' or 'deemed consent' for deceased donation with the intention of raising consent rates. However, this coincided with the COVID-19 pandemic, making it difficult to assess the early impact of the law change. Wales and Scotland changed their organ donation legislation to implement soft opt-out systems in 2015 and 2021 respectively. This study provides a descriptive analysis of changes in consent and transplant rates for deceased organ donation in England, Scotland and Wales. METHODS: Logistic regression and descriptive trend analysis were employed to assess the probability of a patient who died in critical care becoming a donor, and to report consent rates using data, respectively, from the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre (ICNARC) in England from 1 April 2014 to 30 September 2021, and from the Potential Donor Audit for England, Scotland and Wales from April 2010 to June 2023. RESULTS: The number of eligible donors in April-June 2020 were 56.5%, 59.3% and 57.6% lower in England, Scotland and Wales relative to April-June 2019 (pre-pandemic). By April-June 2023, the number of eligible donors had recovered to 87.4%, 64.2% and 110.3%, respectively, of their levels in 2019. The consent rate in England, Scotland and Wales reduced from 68.3%, 63.0% and 63.6% in April-June 2019 to 63.2%, 60.5% and 56.3% in April-June 2023. CONCLUSIONS: While the UK organ donation system shows signs of recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of eligible potential donors and consent rates remain below their pre-pandemic levels.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Pandemics , Tissue Donors , Tissue and Organ Procurement , Humans , COVID-19/epidemiology , Wales/epidemiology , England/epidemiology , Tissue and Organ Procurement/legislation & jurisprudence , Tissue and Organ Procurement/trends , Tissue and Organ Procurement/statistics & numerical data , Scotland/epidemiology , SARS-CoV-2 , Male , Informed Consent/legislation & jurisprudence
20.
J Infect Dis ; 230(1): e48-e59, 2024 Jul 25.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39052745

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: A human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) outbreak was identified among people who inject drugs (PWID) in Glasgow in 2015, with >150 diagnoses by the end of 2019. The outbreak response involved scaling up HIV testing and improving HIV treatment initiation and retention. METHODS: We parameterized and calibrated a dynamic, deterministic model of HIV transmission among PWID in Glasgow to epidemiological data. We use this model to evaluate HIV testing and treatment interventions. We present results in terms of relative changes in HIV prevalence, incidence, and cases averted. RESULTS: If the improvements in both testing and treatment had not occurred, we predict that HIV prevalence would have reached 17.8% (95% credible interval [CrI], 14.1%-22.6%) by the beginning of 2020, compared to 5.9% (95% CrI, 4.7%-7.4%) with the improvements. If the improvements had been made on detection of the outbreak in 2015, we predict that peak incidence would have been 26.2% (95% CrI, 8.8%-49.3%) lower and 62.7% (95% CrI, 43.6%-76.6%) of the outbreak cases could have been averted. The outbreak could have been avoided if the improvements had already been in place. CONCLUSIONS: Our modeling suggests that the HIV testing and treatment interventions successfully brought the HIV outbreak in Glasgow under control by the beginning of 2020.


Subject(s)
Disease Outbreaks , HIV Infections , Substance Abuse, Intravenous , Humans , HIV Infections/epidemiology , HIV Infections/drug therapy , Substance Abuse, Intravenous/complications , Substance Abuse, Intravenous/epidemiology , Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control , Scotland/epidemiology , Prevalence , Incidence , Male , Adult , Female , Middle Aged
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