[Constructing a predictive model for the death risk of patients with septic shock based on supervised machine learning algorithms].

OBJECTIVE: To construct and validate the best predictive model for 28-day death risk in patients with septic shock based on different supervised machine learning algorithms. METHODS: The patients with septic shock meeting the Sepsis-3 criteria were selected from Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-IV v2.0 (MIMIC-IV v2.0). According to the principle of random allocation, 70% of these patients were used as the training set, and 30% as the validation set. Relevant predictive variables were extracted from three aspects: demographic characteristics and basic vital signs, serum indicators within 24 hours of intensive care unit (ICU) admission and complications possibly affecting indicators, functional scoring and advanced life support. The predictive efficacy of models constructed using five mainstream machine learning algorithms including decision tree classification and regression tree (CART), random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), linear regression (LR), and super learner [SL; combined CART, RF and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost)] for 28-day death in patients with septic shock was compared, and the best algorithm model was selected. The optimal predictive variables were determined by intersecting the results from LASSO regression, RF, and XGBoost algorithms, and a predictive model was constructed. The predictive efficacy of the model was validated by drawing receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve), the accuracy of the model was assessed using calibration curves, and the practicality of the model was verified through decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS: A total of 3 295 patients with septic shock were included, with 2 164 surviving and 1 131 dying within 28 days, resulting in a mortality of 34.32%. Of these, 2 307 were in the training set (with 792 deaths within 28 days, a mortality of 34.33%), and 988 in the validation set (with 339 deaths within 28 days, a mortality of 34.31%). Five machine learning models were established based on the training set data. After including variables at three aspects, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) of RF, SVM, and LR machine learning algorithm models for predicting 28-day death in septic shock patients in the validation set was 0.823 [95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 0.795-0.849], 0.823 (95%CI was 0.796-0.849), and 0.810 (95%CI was 0.782-0.838), respectively, which were higher than that of the CART algorithm model (AUC = 0.750, 95%CI was 0.717-0.782) and SL algorithm model (AUC = 0.756, 95%CI was 0.724-0.789). Thus above three algorithm models were determined to be the best algorithm models. After integrating variables from three aspects, 16 optimal predictive variables were identified through intersection by LASSO regression, RF, and XGBoost algorithms, including the highest pH value, the highest albumin (Alb), the highest body temperature, the lowest lactic acid (Lac), the highest Lac, the highest serum creatinine (SCr), the highest Ca2+, the lowest hemoglobin (Hb), the lowest white blood cell count (WBC), age, simplified acute physiology score III (SAPS III), the highest WBC, acute physiology score III (APS III), the lowest Na+, body mass index (BMI), and the shortest activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT) within 24 hours of ICU admission. ROC curve analysis showed that the Logistic regression model constructed with above 16 optimal predictive variables was the best predictive model, with an AUC of 0.806 (95%CI was 0.778-0.835) in the validation set. The calibration curve and DCA curve showed that this model had high accuracy and the highest net benefit could reach 0.3, which was significantly outperforming traditional models based on single functional score [APS III score, SAPS III score, and sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score] with AUC (95%CI) of 0.746 (0.715-0.778), 0.765 (0.734-0.796), and 0.625 (0.589-0.661), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The Logistic regression model, constructed using 16 optimal predictive variables including pH value, Alb, body temperature, Lac, SCr, Ca2+, Hb, WBC, SAPS III score, APS III score, Na+, BMI, and APTT, is identified as the best predictive model for the 28-day death risk in patients with septic shock. Its performance is stable, with high discriminative ability and accuracy.

[Tissue perfusion monitoring in children with acute circulatory dysfunction: narrative review]. / Monitorización de la perfusión tisular en el niño con disfunción circulatoria aguda: revisión narrativa.

Sepsis is one of the main causes of admission to Intensive Care Units (ICU). The hemodynamic objectives usually sought during the resuscitation of the patient in septic shock correspond to macrohemodynamic parameters (heart rate, blood pressure, central venous pressure). However, persistent alterations in microcirculation, despite the restoration of macrohemodynamic parameters, can cause organ failure. This dissociation between the macrocirculation and microcirculation originates the need to evaluate organ tissue perfusion, the most commonly used being urinary output, lactatemia, central venous oxygen saturation (ScvO2), and veno-arterial pCO2 gap. Because peripheral tissues, such as the skin, are sensitive to disturbances in perfusion, noninvasive monitoring of peripheral circulation, such as skin temperature gradient, capillary refill time, mottling score, and peripheral perfusion index may be helpful as early markers of the existence of systemic hemodynamic alterations. Peripheral circulation monitoring techniques are relatively easy to interpret and can be used directly at the patient's bedside. This approach can be quickly applied in the intra- or extra-ICU setting. The objective of this narrative review is to analyze the various existing tissue perfusion markers and to update the evidence that allows guiding hemodynamic support in a more individualized therapy for each patient.

Pyruvate dehydrogenase complex deficiency masked by septic shock-induced lactic acidosis: a case report.

Pyruvate dehydrogenase complex (PDHC) deficiency is a common genetic disorder leading to lactic acidosis, which can also result from several nongenetic conditions, such as septic shock. The present study reports a case of PDHC deficiency masked by septic shock-induced lactic acidosis. This case involved a 16-year-old adolescent with poor exercise tolerance compared with his peers, and no underlying diseases. The disease onset was characterized by cough, fever, and dyspnea, with hypotension and elevated lactate levels, which indicated septic shock. However, severe hypoglycemia and lactic acidosis persisted despite resolution of a pulmonary infection and correction of septic shock, requiring continuous intravenous infusion of 50% glucose. Although the patient did not experience acute kidney injury and had normal urine output, continuous renal replacement therapy was used to regulate the internal environment owing to the severity of the acidosis. The diagnosis of PDHC deficiency was considered on the basis of the persistent hypoglycemia and hyperlactatemia, before genetic mutation testing was completed. The clinical thinking process required a rich accumulation of pathophysiological knowledge. This article reports a case of PDHC deficiency masked by septic shock-induced lactic acidosis to raise awareness of the disease and avoid misdiagnosis and missed diagnosis.

Weil's disease with multiple organ dysfunction, community-acquired pneumonia and septic shock: The role of rapid diagnosis and management.

Leptospirosis is an uncommon infectious illness - a spirochetal zoonosis - caused by Leptospira species and the primary cause of human leptospirosis is exposure to the urine of infected rodents. Clinical manifestations of human leptospirosis are diverse, ranging from asymptomatic infection to severe life-threatening with multiorgan dysfunction. The severe condition is known as Weil's disease, which is characterized by feverish illness with jaundice, acute kidney damage, and bleeding. The aim of this case report was to present a Weil's disease which occurred simultaneously with a community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) resulting in serious complications. A 41-year-old man with Weil's disease, as well as CAP caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae, and septic shock was presented. The patient was treated accordingly after establishing the diagnosis through history taking, physical examination, and laboratory tests. In this instance, the score for diagnosing leptospirosis based on Modified Faine's Criteria was calculated resulting possible diagnoses; and therefore, therapeutic management was initiated. Despite presenting with severe symptoms, the patient recovered completely after receiving antibiotics and supportive care. This study highlights that when a patient has Weil's disease and a CAP infection, which could cause unfavorable consequence, a prompt diagnosis and proper treatment could result satisfied patient recovery.

Clinical usefulness of NT-proBNP as a prognostic factor for septic shock patients presenting to the emergency department.

Plasma N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) level is primarily used as a biomarker for left ventricular (LV) dysfunction. It is influenced by various conditions, such as myocardial strain and situations affecting the clearance of NT-proBNP, including sepsis and shock. In this study, we investigated the appropriateness of NT-proBNP as a prognostic factor for septic shock. Patients with septic shock who visited the emergency department of the Ewha Womans' University Mokdong Hospital between January 1, 2018, and December 31, 2020, were classified into the survival group (those who survived in the hospital and were discharged) and the death group (those who died in the hospital). The effectiveness of NT-proBNP, lactate, and blood urea nitrogen as predictive factors of in-hospital mortality was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve. The AUROC curve was 0.678 and 0.648 for lactate and NT-proBNP, respectively, with lactate showing the highest value. However, there was no significant difference between lactate and NT-proBNP levels in the comparison of their AUROC curve (p = 0.6278). NT-proBNP could be a useful predictor of in-hospital mortality in patients with septic shock who present to the emergency department.

Diastolic/systolic blood pressure ratio for predicting febrile children with sepsis and progress to septic shock in the emergency department.

OBJECTIVE: Given the scarcity of studies analyzing the clinical predictors of pediatric septic cases that would progress to septic shock, this study aimed to determine strong predictors for pediatric emergency department (PED) patients with sepsis at risk for septic shock and mortality. METHODS: We conducted chart reviews of patients with ≥ 2 age-adjusted quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score (qSOFA) criteria to recognize patients with an infectious disease in two tertiary PEDs between January 1, 2021, and April 30, 2022. The age range of included patients was 1 month to 18 years. The primary outcome was development of septic shock within 48 h of PED attendance. The secondary outcome was sepsis-related 28-day mortality. Initial important variables in the PED and hemodynamics with the highest and lowest values during the first 24 h of admission were also analyzed. RESULTS: Overall, 417 patients were admitted because of sepsis and met the eligibility criteria for the study. Forty-nine cases progressed to septic shock within 48 h after admission and 368 were discharged without progression. General demographics, laboratory data, and hemodynamics were analyzed by multivariate analysis. Only the minimum diastolic blood pressure/systolic blood pressure ratio (D/S ratio) during the first 24 h after admission remained as an independent predictor of progression to septic shock and 28-day mortality. The best cutoff values of the D/S ratio for predicting septic shock and 28-day mortality were 0.52 and 0.47, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The D/S ratio is a practical bedside scoring system in the PED and had good discriminative ability in predicting the progression of septic shock and in-hospital mortality in PED patients. Further validation is essential in other settings.

Sepsis best practices: Definitions, guidelines, and updates.

ABSTRACT: Sepsis remains a complex and costly disease with high morbidity and mortality. This article discusses Sepsis-2 and Sepsis-3 definitions, highlighting the 2021 Surviving Sepsis International guidelines as well as the regulatory requirements and reimbursement for the Severe Sepsis and Septic Shock Management Bundle (SEP-1) measure.

Leptospirosis: a clinical and diagnostic challenge.

We present the case of a man in his early 50s who presented with a history of fever, malaise and jaundice. Initial investigations showed liver and renal dysfunction with no discernible cause for the septic process. On starting intravenous antibiotics, the patient developed a septic-shock-like reaction requiring transfer to intensive care. A diagnosis of leptospirosis was eventually established through an extensive and thorough history leading to a stepwise approach to investigations. Treatment targeting leptospirosis was delivered with noticeable clinical improvement.

Sepsis, Management & Advances in Metabolomics.

Though there have been developments in clinical care and management, early and accurate diagnosis and risk stratification are still bottlenecks in septic shock patients. Since septic shock is multifactorial with patient-specific underlying co-morbid conditions, early assessment of sepsis becomes challenging due to variable symptoms and clinical manifestations. Moreover, the treatment strategies are traditionally based on their progression and corresponding clinical symptoms, not personalized. The complex pathophysiology assures that a single biomarker cannot identify, stratify, and describe patients affected by septic shock. Traditional biomarkers like CRP, PCT, and cytokines are not sensitive and specific enough to be used entirely for a patient's diagnosis and prognosis. Thus, the need of the hour is a sensitive and specific biomarker after comprehensive analysis that may facilitate an early diagnosis, prognosis, and drug development. Integration of clinical data with metabolomics would provide means to understand the patient's condition, stratify patients better, and predict the clinical outcome.

Biomarker Assessment of a High-Risk, Data-Driven Pediatric Sepsis Phenotype Characterized by Persistent Hypoxemia, Encephalopathy, and Shock.

OBJECTIVES: Identification of children with sepsis-associated multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS) at risk for poor outcomes remains a challenge. We sought to the determine reproducibility of the data-driven "persistent hypoxemia, encephalopathy, and shock" (PHES) phenotype and determine its association with inflammatory and endothelial biomarkers, as well as biomarker-based pediatric risk strata. DESIGN: We retrained and validated a random forest classifier using organ dysfunction subscores in the 2012-2018 electronic health record (EHR) dataset used to derive the PHES phenotype. We used this classifier to assign phenotype membership in a test set consisting of prospectively (2003-2023) enrolled pediatric septic shock patients. We compared profiles of the PERSEVERE family of biomarkers among those with and without the PHES phenotype and determined the association with established biomarker-based mortality and MODS risk strata. SETTING: Twenty-five PICUs across the United States. PATIENTS: EHR data from 15,246 critically ill patients with sepsis-associated MODS split into derivation and validation sets and 1,270 pediatric septic shock patients in the test set of whom 615 had complete biomarker data. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve of the modified classifier to predict PHES phenotype membership was 0.91 (95% CI, 0.90-0.92) in the EHR validation set. In the test set, PHES phenotype membership was associated with both increased adjusted odds of complicated course (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 4.1; 95% CI, 3.2-5.4) and 28-day mortality (aOR of 4.8; 95% CI, 3.11-7.25) after controlling for age, severity of illness, and immunocompromised status. Patients belonging to the PHES phenotype were characterized by greater degree of systemic inflammation and endothelial activation, and were more likely to be stratified as high risk based on PERSEVERE biomarkers predictive of death and persistent MODS. CONCLUSIONS: The PHES trajectory-based phenotype is reproducible, independently associated with poor clinical outcomes, and overlapped with higher risk strata based on prospectively validated biomarker approaches.

Evaluating the predictive value of initial lactate/albumin ratios in determining prognosis of sepsis patients.

Sepsis remains a significant clinical challenge owing to its complex pathophysiology and variable prognosis. The early identification of patients at a higher risk of poor outcomes can be crucial for improving treatment strategies. This study aimed to evaluate the predictive value of early serum lactate and albumin levels and the lactate/albumin (L/A) ratio for 28-day prognosis in patients with sepsis. Patients diagnosed with sepsis between January 2021 and December 2022 were evaluated using a retrospective cohort methodology. Inclusion followed the International Consensus on sepsis and septic shock (Sepsis-3) guidelines and patients were selected based on well-defined criteria. Variables such as lactate, albumin, and the L/A ratio were documented within the first 24 hours of admission. Statistical analyses were performed using various tools, including the nonparametric Mann-Whitney U test and receiver operating characteristic curves. A total of 301 patients were divided into the survival (n = 167) and death (n = 134) groups. Notable differences were detected in the incidence of pulmonary infection, shock, lactate, albumin, and the L/A ratio. The L/A ratio was identified as a key predictor with an area under the curve of 0.868, an optimal cutoff value of >0.17, a sensitivity of 56.21%, and a specificity of 94.18%. Significant disparities in mortality rates and survival times were observed for the lactate, albumin, and L/A levels. This study underscores the predictive value of early serum lactate and albumin levels and the L/A ratio for 28-day prognosis in patients with sepsis, with the L/A ratio showing a superior predictive capability. These findings highlight the importance of L/A ratio as a robust and precise marker for evaluating the future clinical course of patients with sepsis, potentially aiding early detection and management.

Diagnostic and Prognostic Value of Pentraxin 3, Interleukin-6, CRP, and Procalcitonin Levels in Patients with Sepsis and Septic Shock.

INTRODUCTION AND PURPOSE: In this prospective study, we aim to evaluate the effects of antibiotherapy on pentraxin-3 (PTX3), C-reactive protein (CRP), and interleukin-6 (IL-6) levels in patients with sepsis and septic shock. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In our study, CRP, procalcitonin, IL-6, and PTX3 levels at initial and 48 hours of the antibiotherapy of patients who were admitted to the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) with the diagnosis of sepsis and septic shock between June 2020 and March 2021 were compared. Patients were compared with the age-appropriate case-control group formed from the patients who received pre-operative routines to investigate the diagnostic value. RESULTS: CRP, IL-6, and PTX3 levels of the patients were significantly higher compared to controls (P < 0.05). After the 48th hour of treatment compared to initial CRP, lactate and PCT levels were significantly lower (P < 0.05). The IL-6 and PCT levels were significantly higher in patients with mortality than in surviving patients. Surviving patients showed a significant decrease in CRP level at the 48th hour. IL-6 levels of patients with septic shock were significantly higher than those with sepsis (P = 0.010; P < 0.05). In the diagnosis of septic shock, the area under curve was 0.785 for IL-6 and the standard deviation was 0.09 (P = 0.002, cut-off value, >32 pg/mL, 88.9% sensitivity, 65.6% specifity). CONCLUSION: The results of this study indicated that IL-6 level is an appropriate biomarker with high specificity in the diagnosis of sepsis and septic shock and in evaluating the response to treatment and determining the prognosis.

Case report: Metagenomics next-generation sequencing in the diagnosis of septic shock due to Fusobacterium necrophorum in a 6-year-old child.

Fusobacterium necrophorum (F. necrophorum) infection is rare in pediatrics. In addition, the detection time of F. necrophorum by blood culture is long, and the positive rate is low. Infection with F. necrophorum bacilli usually follows rapid disease progression, resulting in high mortality. In previous reports of F. necrophorum-related cases, the most dangerous moment of the disease occurred after the appearance of Lemierre's syndrome. We report an atypical case of a 6-year-old female patient who developed septic shock within 24 h of admission due to F. necrophorum infection in the absence of Lemierre's syndrome. F. necrophorum was identified in a blood sample by metagenomics next-generation sequencing (mNGS) but not by standard blood culture. The patient was finally cured and discharged after receiving timely and effective targeted anti-infection treatment. In the present case study, it was observed that the heightened virulence and invasiveness of F. necrophorum contribute significantly to its role as a primary pathogen in pediatric septic shock. This can precipitate hemodynamic instability and multiple organ failure, even in the absence of Lemierre's syndrome. The use of mNGS can deeply and rapidly identify infectious pathogens, guide the use of targeted antibiotics, and greatly improve the survival rate of patients.

[Establishing a prognostic prediction model for patients with septic shock based on the completion time of fluid resuscitation and the negative fluid balance volumes].

OBJECTIVE: To explore the relationship between the completion time of fluid resuscitation as well as negative fluid balance volumes and the prognosis of patients with septic shock, and to try to construct a prediction model based on the completion time of fluid resuscitation and negative fluid balance volumes, and to verify the predictive efficacy of the model on the prognosis of patients with septic shock. METHODS: Patients with septic shock admitted to Wuxi People's Hospital from April 2020 to April 2023 were selected. The general data (gender, age, body mass index, infection site), pathological indicators on admission, the difference of acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) and sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) between admission and 24 hours after fluid resuscitation, the completion time of fluid resuscitation and negative fluid balance volume were recorded. Multivariate Logistic analysis was used to screen the influencing factors of the prognosis of patients with septic shock, and a nomogram model was established. Bootstrap method was used for internal validation of the model. The consistency index, calibration curve and receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve) were used to evaluate the accuracy and prediction efficiency of the model. RESULTS: A total of 96 patients with septic shock were enrolled, 38 patients died and 58 patients survived at 28 days. Compared with the survival group, the difference of APACHE II score, SOFA score, the proportion of fluid resuscitation completed within 1 to 3 hours, and the proportion of negative fluid balance volume -500 to -250 mL per day in the death group were lower, and the differences were statistically significant (all P < 0.05). Multivariate Logistic analysis showed that the completion time of fluid resuscitation was a risk factor for the prognosis of patients with septic shock [odds ratio (OR) = 26.285, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 9.984-76.902, P < 0.05]. The difference of APACHE II score (OR = 0.045, 95%CI was 0.015-0.131), SOFA score (OR = 0.056, 95%CI was 0.019-0.165) between admission and 24 hours after fluid resuscitation, and negative fluid balance volume (OR = 0.043, 95%CI was 0.015-0.127) were protective factors for the prognosis of patients with septic shock (all P < 0.05). The model validation results showed that the consistency index was 0.681 (95%CI was 0.596-0.924), indicating good discrimination. The calibration curve showed that the calibration curve fitted well with the ideal curve. The ROC curve showed that the sensitivity of the nomogram model for predicting the death of patients with septic shock was 83.7%, the specificity was 97.2%, and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.931 (95%CI was 0.846-0.985), indicating that the model had good prediction efficiency. CONCLUSIONS: The completion time of fluid resuscitation and negative fluid balance volumes are related to the prognosis of septic shock patients, and the alignment diagram model improve the identification of the risk of death in septic shock patients.

Alterations of the Adipo-Myokine Irisin in Sepsis and Septic Shock: Diagnostic and Prognostic Implications.

Irisin, a novel adipo-myokine with metabolic regulatory functions, exerts anti-inflammatory, antioxidant, and anti-apoptotic actions that may confer protection against sepsis-induced organ injury in experimental studies. Until now, only one human study has explored circulating irisin at sepsis onset. We aimed to examine serum irisin and its kinetics in critically ill patients with sepsis and septic shock with regard to sepsis severity and outcome. We enrolled 102 critically ill patients with sepsis or septic shock within 48 h of diagnosis and 102 age- and gender-matched healthy controls. Irisin was determined in serum upon enrollment in all participants and one week later in patients using an immunoenzymatic method. The outcome of sepsis was recorded 28 days after enrollment. At enrollment, circulating irisin was significantly lower in patients than controls (22.3 ± 6.8 µg/L vs. 28.1 ± 6.7 µg/L, p < 0.001), and increased significantly one week later (22.3 ± 6.8 µg/L vs. 26.6 ± 9.5 µg/L, p < 0.001). Irisin was significantly lower in patients who presented with septic shock than those with sepsis, and in non-survivors than survivors both at enrollment and one week later. However, kinetics of irisin did not differ between the groups (p > 0.05). Patients with higher circulating irisin during the first week of sepsis had a better outcome (p < 0.001). Lower irisin was independently associated with 28-day mortality (sepsis onset: HR 0.44, 95% C.I. 0.26-0.77, p = 0.004 and one week after: HR 0.37, 95% C.I. 0.23-0.58, p < 0.001). Irisin was negatively correlated with severity scores, metabolic, and inflammatory biomarkers. Circulating irisin decreases early in sepsis and is an independent predictor of 28-day mortality. Irisin may be a promising diagnostic and prognostic sepsis biomarker; nevertheless, larger studies are needed to explore its role in sepsis.

Identification of a hyperinflammatory sepsis phenotype using protein biomarker and clinical data in the ProCESS randomized trial.

Sepsis is a heterogeneous syndrome and phenotypes have been proposed using clinical data. Less is known about the contribution of protein biomarkers to clinical sepsis phenotypes and their importance for treatment effects in randomized trials of resuscitation. The objective is to use both clinical and biomarker data in the Protocol-Based Care for Early Septic Shock (ProCESS) randomized trial to determine sepsis phenotypes and to test for heterogeneity of treatment effect by phenotype comparing usual care to protocolized early, goal-directed therapy(EGDT). In this secondary analysis of a subset of patients with biomarker sampling in the ProCESS trial (n = 543), we identified sepsis phenotypes prior to randomization using latent class analysis of 20 clinical and biomarker variables. Logistic regression was used to test for interaction between phenotype and treatment arm for 60-day inpatient mortality. Among 543 patients with severe sepsis or septic shock in the ProCESS trial, a 2-class model best fit the data (p = 0.01). Phenotype 1 (n = 66, 12%) had increased IL-6, ICAM, and total bilirubin and decreased platelets compared to phenotype 2 (n = 477, 88%, p < 0.01 for all). Phenotype 1 had greater 60-day inpatient mortality compared to Phenotype 2 (41% vs 16%; p < 0.01). Treatment with EGDT was associated with worse 60-day inpatient mortality compared to usual care (58% vs. 23%) in Phenotype 1 only (p-value for interaction = 0.05). The 60-day inpatient mortality was similar comparing EGDT to usual care in Phenotype 2 (16% vs. 17%). We identified 2 sepsis phenotypes using latent class analysis of clinical and protein biomarker data at randomization in the ProCESS trial. Phenotype 1 had increased inflammation, organ dysfunction and worse clinical outcomes compared to phenotype 2. Response to EGDT versus usual care differed by phenotype.

Easy method to determine fluid responsiveness in septic shock patients: end-tidal CO2 - a prospective observational study.

BACKGROUND: In critically ill patients, especially those with septic shock, fluid management can be a challenging aspect of clinical care. One of the primary steps in treating patients with hemodynamic instability is optimizing intravascular volume. The Passive Leg Raising (PLR) maneuver is a reliable test for assessing fluid responsiveness, as demonstrated by numerous studies and meta-analyses. However, its use requires the measurement of cardiac output, which is often complex and may necessitate clinician experience and specialized equipment. End-Tidal Carbon Dioxide (ETCO2) measurement is relatively easy and is generally stable under steady metabolic conditions. It depends on the body's CO2 production, diffusion of CO2 from the lungs into the bloodstream, and cardiac output. If the other two parameters (metabolic conditions and minute ventilation) are constant, ETCO2 can provide information about cardiac output. The aim of the present study is to investigate the sensitivity of ETCO2 measurement in demonstrating fluid responsiveness. METHODS: All patients diagnosed with septic shock and meeting the inclusion criteria were subjected to a passive leg raising test, and cardiac outputs were measured by echocardiography. An increase in cardiac output of 15% or more was considered indicative of the fluid responder group, while patients with an increase below 15% or no increase were classified as the non-responder group. Patients' intensive care unit admission diagnoses, initial laboratory parameters, tidal volume, minute volume before and after the PLR maneuver, mean and systolic blood pressure, heart rate, Pulse Pressure Variation (PPV) values, and ETCO2 values were recorded. RESULTS: Before and after the ETCO2 test, there was no statistically significant difference between the two groups. However, the change in ETCO2 (ΔETCO2) was significantly higher in the responder group. In the non-responder group, ΔETCO2 was 2.57% (0.81), whereas it was 5.71% (2.83) in the responder group (p<0.001). Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed for ΔETCO2, baseline Stroke Volume Variation (SVV), ΔSVV, baseline Heart Rate (HR), ΔHR, baseline PPV, and ΔPPV to predict fluid responsiveness. ΔETCO2 predicted fluid responsiveness with a sensitivity of 85% and a specificity of 86% when it was 4% or higher. When ΔETCO2 was 5% or higher, it predicted fluid responsiveness with a specificity of 99.3% and a sensitivity of 75.5%, with an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.89 (95% confidence interval, 0.828-0.961). CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates that in septic patients, ETCO2 during the PLR test can indicate fluid responsiveness with high sensitivity and specificity and can be used as an alternative to cardiac output measurement.

The prehospital NEW score to assess septic shock in-hospital, 30-day and 90-day mortality.

BACKGROUND: The early identification of sepsis presenting a high risk of deterioration is a daily challenge to optimise patient pathway. This is all the most crucial in the prehospital setting to optimize triage and admission into the appropriate unit: emergency department (ED) or intensive care unit (ICU). We report the association between the prehospital National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS-2) and in-hospital, 30 and 90-day mortality of SS patients cared for in the pre-hospital setting by a mobile ICU (MICU). METHODS: Septic shock (SS) patients cared for by a MICU between 2016, April 6th and 2021 December 31st were included in this retrospective cohort study. The NEWS-2 is based on 6 physiological variables (blood pressure, heart rate, respiratory rate, temperature, oxygen saturation prior oxygen supplementation, and level of consciousness) and ranges from 0 to 20. The Inverse Probability Treatment Weighting (IPTW) propensity method was applied to assess the association with in-hospital, 30 and 90-day mortality. A NEWS-2 ≥ 7 threshold was chosen for increased clinical deterioration risk definition and usefulness in clinical practice based on previous reports. RESULTS: Data from 530 SS patients requiring MICU intervention in the pre-hospital setting were analysed. The mean age was 69 ± 15 years and presumed origin of sepsis was pulmonary (43%), digestive (25%) or urinary (17%) infection. In-hospital mortality rate was 33%, 30 and 90-day mortality were respectively 31% and 35%. A prehospital NEWS-2 ≥ 7 is associated with an increase in-hospital, 30 and 90-day mortality with respective RRa = 2.34 [1.39-3.95], 2.08 [1.33-3.25] and 2.22 [1.38-3.59]. Calibration statistic values for in-hospital mortality, 30-day and 90-day mortality were 0.54; 0.55 and 0.53 respectively. CONCLUSION: A prehospital NEWS-2 ≥ 7 is associated with an increase in in-hospital, 30 and 90-day mortality of septic shock patients cared for by a MICU in the prehospital setting. Prospective studies are needed to confirm the usefulness of NEWS-2 to improve the prehospital triage and orientation to the adequate facility of sepsis.