Do tobacco regulatory and economic factors influence smoking cessation outcomes? A post-hoc analysis of the multinational EAGLES randomised controlled trial.

INTRODUCTION: We previously reported global regional differences in smoking cessation outcomes, with smokers of US origin having lower quit rates than smokers from some other countries. This post-hoc analysis examined global regional differences in individual-level and country-level epidemiological, economic and tobacco regulatory factors that may affect cessation outcomes. METHODS: EAGLES (Evaluating Adverse Events in a Global Smoking Cessation Study) was a randomised controlled trial that evaluated first-line cessation medications and placebo in 8144 smokers with and without psychiatric disorders from 16 countries across seven regions. Generalised linear and stepwise logistic regression models that considered pharmacotherapy treatment, psychiatric diagnoses, traditional individual-level predictors (eg, demographic and smoking characteristics) and country-specific smoking prevalence rates, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, relative cigarette cost and WHO-derived MPOWER scores were used to predict 7-day point prevalence abstinence at the end of treatment. RESULTS: In addition to several traditional predictors, three of four country-level variables predicted short-term abstinence: GDP (0.54 (95% CI 0.47, 0.63)), cigarette relative income price (0.62 (95% CI 0.53, 0.72)) and MPOWER score (1.03 (95% CI 1.01, 1.06)). Quit rates varied across regions (22.0% in Australasia to 55.9% in Mexico). With northern North America (USA and Canada) as the referent, the likelihood of achieving short-term abstinence was significantly higher in Western Europe (OR 1.4 (95% CI 1.14, 1.61)), but significantly lower in Eastern Europe (0.39 (95% CI 0.22, 0.69)) and South America (0.17 (95% CI 0.08, 0.35)). CONCLUSIONS: Increased tobacco regulation was associated with enhanced quitting among participants in the EAGLES trial. Paradoxically, lower GDP, and more affordable cigarette pricing relative to a country's GDP, were also associated with higher odds of quitting. Geographical region was also a significant independent predictor. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01456936.

Evaluation of Tobacco Tax Funding to Eradicate Illicit Cigarettes in Indonesia: A Qualitative Approach.

OBJECTIVES: The illicit cigarette trade endangers public health because it increases access to cheaper tobacco products, hence fueling the tobacco epidemic and undermining tobacco control policies. The objective of this study was to evaluate the execution of an illicit cigarette eradication program under the jurisdiction of the local government in Indonesia. We sought to provide insights into the effectiveness of current policies and their impact on the illicit cigarette trade in line with the World Health Organization Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (WHO FCTC) protocol to eliminate illicit trade in tobacco products. METHODS: We conducted semistructured interviews with key policy-makers and semistructured FGDs with consumers and small- to medium-scale cigarette manufacturers at the district level. We indentified Pasuruan and Kudus as the districts or cities with the highest proportion of DBH CHT, and Jepara and Malang as a district with a highest illicit cigarette incident. We used reflective thematic analysis to identify the important opportunities and challenges facing illicit cigarette eradication programs in the three districts. RESULTS: We identified four opportunities and four challenges related to illicit cigarette eradication program implementation under the local government. The opportunities for illicit cigarette eradication lie in strong central government regulatory and multisectoral authority support, consumer awareness, and local governments' commitment to tobacco supply chain control. The key challenges facing illicit cigarette eradication include ineffective public dissemination programs, rapidly changing regulatory designs, consumers' preferences for illicit products, and a lack of industrial involvement in tobacco supply chain control programs. CONCLUSION: In addition to significant budget allocation and increasing consumer awareness, local programs to eradicate illicit cigarette production require considerable evaluation to rethink the program's design and external stakeholders' engagement within the local government's scope.

Biological Sex Disparities in the Economic Burden of Tobacco Use: A Comparative Analysis between Men and Women in China.

To examine the impact of tobacco use on the economic costs between biological sex differences, we utilized propensity score matching and human capital methods to analyze the economic costs associated with smoking. Our findings reveal a nuanced pattern in the economic burden: although men who smoke bear a higher overall economic cost, the individual impact on women who smoke is significantly more profound. As a result, there exists a distinct disparity in the distribution of economic consequences stemming from tobacco use between men and women.

[Application of the cigarette purchase tasks in achieving China' s tobacco control goals].

OBJECTIVE: To assess cigarette demand among Chinese smokers through a cigarette purchase task (CPT) and to evaluate cigarette prices under different hypothetical scenarios in order to meet the goals of smoking prevalence reduction in China. METHODS: In the study, 447 participants completed a hypothetical CPT at baseline assessments of a trial, thus, cigarette demand curves were individually fitted for each participant using an exponentiated version of the exponential demand model. Typically, five demand indices were derived, intensity (consumption when free), breakpoint (first price at which consumption is suppressed to 0), maximum output (Omax), maximum price (Pmax, price at which Omax occurred), and elasticity (the ratio of the change in quantity demanded to the change in price). A one-way analysis of variance was used to explore the correlations between the cigarette purchase task indices and socio-demographic and smoking characteristics. The one-way decay model was employed to simulate the smoking cessation rates and determine optimal cigarette prices in a series of scenarios for achieving 20% smoking prevalence. RESULTS: The price elasticity drawn from CPT was 0.54, indicating that a 10% price increase could reduce smoking by 5.4% in the participated smokers. Smokers with higher income were less sensitive to cigarette prices (elasticity=-2.31, P=0.028). Cigarette purchase task indices varied significantly among the smokers with different prices of commonly used cigarettes, tobacco dependence, and smoking volume. The smokers who consumed cigarettes of higher prices reported higher breakpoint, Omax and Pmax, but lower intensity (P=0.001). The smokers who were moderately or highly nicotine dependent reported higher intensity, breakpoint, Omax and Pmax, and they had lower intensity (P=0.001). The smokers who had a higher volume of cigarettes reported higher intensity and Omax, and lower intensity (P < 0.001). To achieve the goal of reducing smoking prevalence to 20% in mainland China, we estimated the desired increase on smoking cessation rate and prices accordingly in a series of scenarios, considering the gender variance and reduced smoking initiation. In scenario (a), to achieve a smoking prevalence goal of 20%, it would be necessary for 24.81% of the current smokers to quit smoking when there were no new smokers. Our fitting model yielded a corresponding value of 59.64 yuan (95%CI 53.13-67.24). Given the assumption in scenario (b) that only males quitted smoking, the desired cessation rates would be 25.82%, with a higher corresponding price of 62.15 yuan (95%CI 55.40-70.06) to induce desired cessation rates. In the proposed scenario (c) where 40 percent of the reduction in smoking prevalence came from reduced smoking initiation, and females and males equally quitted smoking due to increased cigarette prices, the price of a pack of cigarettes would be at least 37.36 yuan (95%CI 32.32-42.69) (equals to $ 5.20) per pack to achieve the cessation rate of 14.89 percent. In scenario (d) where only males quitted smoking due to increased cigarette prices considering the reduced smoking initiation, the respective smoking cessation rates should be 15.49% with the desired prices of 38.60 yuan (95%CI 33.53-44.02). After adjusting for education levels and income levels in scenario (c), the price of cigarettes would be at least 37.37 yuan/pack (equals to $ 5.20) (95%CI 30.73-44.94) and 37.84 yuan/pack (equals to $ 5.26) (95%CI 31.94-44.53), respectively. CONCLUSION: Cigarette purchase task indices are significantly associated with income levels and prices of commonly used cigarettes, levels of tobacco dependence, and smoking volume, which is inspiring in studying price factors that influence smoking behavior. It is suggested that higher cigarette prices, surpassing the current actual market level, is imperative in mainland China. Stronger policy stra-tegies should be taken to increase tobacco taxes and retail cigarette prices to achieve the Healthy China 2030 goal of reducing smoking prevalence to 20%.

Exposure to cigarette taxes as a teenager and the persistence of smoking into adulthood.

Are teenage and adult smoking causally related? Recent anti-tobacco policy is predicated on the assumption that preventing teenagers from smoking will ensure that fewer adults smoke, but direct evidence in support of this assumption is scant. Using data from three nationally representative sources and instrumenting for teenage smoking with cigarette taxes experienced at ages 14-17, we document a strong positive relationship between teenage and adult smoking: deterring 10 teenagers from smoking through raising cigarette taxes roughly translates into 5 fewer adult smokers. We conclude that efforts to reduce teenage smoking can have long-lasting consequences on smoking participation and, presumably, health.

Equity implications of tobacco taxation: results from WHO FCTC investment cases.

BACKGROUND: Across time, geographies and country income levels, smoking prevalence is highest among people with lower incomes. Smoking causes further impoverishment of those on the lower end of the income spectrum through expenditure on tobacco and greater risk of ill health. METHODS: This paper summarises the results of investment case equity analyses for 19 countries, presenting the effects of increased taxation on smoking prevalence, health and expenditures. We disaggregate the number of people who smoke, smoking-attributable mortality and cigarette expenditures using smoking prevalence data by income quintile. A uniform 30% increase in price was applied across countries. We estimated the effects of the price increase on smoking prevalence, mortality and cigarette expenditures. RESULTS: In all but one country (Bhutan), a one-time 30% increase in price would reduce smoking prevalence by the largest percent among the poorest 20% of the population. All income groups in all countries would spend more on cigarettes with a 30% increase in price. However, the poorest 20% would pay an average of 12% of the additional money spent. CONCLUSIONS: Our results confirm that health benefits from increases in price through taxation are pro-poor. Even in countries where smoking prevalence is higher among wealthier groups, increasing prices can still be pro-poor due to variable responsiveness to higher prices. The costs associated with higher smoking prevalence among the poor, together with often limited access to healthcare services and displaced spending on basic needs, result in health inequality and perpetuate the cycle of poverty.

Interpreting results, impacts and implications from WHO FCTC tobacco control investment cases in 21 low-income and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: Tobacco control investment cases analyse the health and socioeconomic costs of tobacco use and the benefits that can be achieved from implementing measures outlined in the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (WHO FCTC). They are intended to provide policy-makers and other stakeholders with country-level evidence that is relevant, useful and responsive to national priorities and policy context. METHODS: This paper synthesises findings from investment cases conducted in Armenia, Cabo Verde, Cambodia, Chad, Colombia, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Eswatini, Georgia, Ghana, Jordan, Laos, Madagascar, Myanmar, Nepal, Samoa, Sierra Leone, Sri Lanka, Suriname, Tunisia and Zambia. We examine annual socioeconomic costs associated with tobacco use, focusing on smoking-related healthcare expenditures, the value of lives lost due to tobacco-related mortality and workplace productivity losses due to smoking. We explore potential benefits associated with WHO FCTC tobacco demand-reduction measures. RESULTS: Tobacco use results in average annual socioeconomic losses of US$95 million, US$610 million and US$1.6 billion among the low-income (n=3), lower-middle-income (n=12) and upper-middle-income countries (n=6) included in this analysis, respectively. These losses are equal to 1.1%, 1.8% and 2.9% of average annual national gross domestic product, respectively. Implementation and enforcement of WHO FCTC tobacco demand-reduction measures would lead to reduced tobacco use, fewer tobacco-related deaths and reduced socioeconomic losses. CONCLUSIONS: WHO FCTC tobacco control measures would provide a positive return on investment in every country analysed.

Beer taxes associate with lower alcohol and cigarette use; cigarette taxes associate with lower cigarette but higher alcohol use.

Background: There is a yet unmet opportunity to utilize data on taxes and individual behaviors to yield insight for analyzing studies involving alcohol and cigarette use.Objectives: To inform the direction and strength of their mutual associations by leveraging the fact that taxation can affect individual consumption, but individual consumption cannot affect taxation.Methods: We linked state-level data on cigarette and beer taxes in 2009-2020 with individual-level data on self-reported current cigarette and alcohol use from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, a telephone survey by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that is representative of the population of each state in the United States. We constructed linear and logistic models to examine associations between a $1 increase in cigarette taxes per pack and a $1 increase in beer taxes per gallon and self-reported cigarette use and alcohol consumption (assessed as any current intake, average drinks/day, heavy drinking, and binge drinking), adjusting for survey year and individual characteristics.Results: Among 2,968,839,352 respondents (49% male), a $1 increase in beer taxes was associated with .003 (95% confidence interval [CI] -.013, .008) fewer drinks/day and lower odds of any drinking (odds ratio [OR] = .81 95%CI .80, .83), heavy drinking (OR = .96 95%CI .93, .99), binge drinking (OR = .82 95%CI .80, .83), and smoking (OR = .98 95%CI .96, 1.00). In contrast, a $1 increase in cigarette taxes was associated with lower odds of smoking (OR = .94 95%CI .94, .95) but .007 (95%CI .005, .010) more drinks/day, and higher odds of any drinking (OR = 1.10 95%CI 1.10, 1.11), heavy drinking (OR = 1.02 95%CI 1.01, 1.02), and binge drinking (OR = .82 95%CI .80, .83).Conclusion: Higher beer taxes were associated with lower odds of drinking and smoking, but higher cigarette taxes were associated with lower odds of smoking and higher alcohol consumption. These results suggest that alcohol intake may be a determinant of cigarette use rather than cigarette use as a determinant of alcohol intake.

The impact of cigarette cost on pack sales per capita consumption in the United States.

OBJECTIVES: Evidence suggests that cigarette costs significantly impact tobacco use, yet the effect of state-level cost variations on cigarette sales per capita in the US remains uncertain. This study investigates how state-level cigarette costs affect pack sales per capita consumption. STUDY DESIGN: This was an observational study of cigarette-pack sales per capita consumption in the United States. METHODS: We used the tobacco tax burden data (1989-2019) and a two-way fixed-effects model to analyse how cigarette costs affect consumption. Our predictor variables were average cost per pack, state tax per pack, and combined federal and state tax as a percentage of the retail price. Additionally, we compared the percentage change in state cigarette taxes per pack for each state in five-year intervals, adjusting for inflation. RESULTS: Regression analysis revealed that a 10% increase in the average cost per pack was related to a 9.59% decrease in per capita cigarette consumption (ß_average cost = -0.959, P < 0.001). Similarly, a rise in state tax per pack and a higher tax as a proportion of the retail price per pack were related to a decline in consumption (ß_ state tax = -0.176, P < 0.001), (ß_retail price = -0.323, P < 0.001). States that raised cigarette taxes beyond the rate of inflation had a higher reduction in cigarette per capita sales than those maintaining stable tax rates. CONCLUSIONS: Some states have not raised their cigarette taxes sufficiently to account for inflation. It appears that cigarette costs have significantly reduced cigarette consumption in the US.

Smoking out Australia's growing illicit tobacco market: Current trends and future challenges.

Data from the Australian Taxation Office and Australian Border Force show notable recent increases in illicit tobacco seizures across Australia. The illicit tobacco market results in substantial losses in tax revenue, funds organised crime, and perpetuates tobacco use, threatening to undermine Australia's ability to achieve its national commercial tobacco endgame goal of 5 % or less smoking prevalence by 2030. This commentary discusses recent trends in Australia's illicit tobacco trade, reasons why this is of concern, potential drivers of Australians' illicit tobacco use, and policy measures that could be implemented to mitigate increasing illicit tobacco trade such as implementing a track and trace system, increased investment in the Australian Border Force to enhance detection of illicit tobacco shipments at Australia's borders, and encouraging public tip-offs of illicit tobacco sales.

Beyond the smoke: Historical analysis of the revenue implications of state cigarette tax policies, 1989 to 2019.

INTRODUCTION: While cigarette taxes are a vital tobacco control tool, their impact on cigarette tax revenue has been largely understudied in the extant literature. This study examines how the level of cigarette taxes affects the revenue generated from cigarettes in the United States over a thirty-year period. METHODS: We obtained the Tax Burden Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (1989-2019). Our dependent variables were gross cigarette tax revenue and per capita gross cigarette tax revenue, and our independent variable was state tax per pack. We used two-way fixed effects to estimate the relationship between state cigarette tax revenue and cigarette taxes, adjusting for state-level sociodemographic characteristics, state-fixed effects, and time trends. RESULTS: The study reveals that raising cigarette state tax by 10 % led to a 7.2 % to 7.5 % increase in cigarette tax revenue. We also found state and regional variation in taxes and revenue, with the Northeast region having the highest taxes per pack and tax revenues. In 2019, most states had low or moderate taxes per pack and tax revenues per capita, while a few states had high taxes per pack and tax revenues per capita. CONCLUSIONS: Our research demonstrates the positive impact of increased cigarette taxes on state tax revenue over three decades. Not only do higher taxes aid in tobacco control, but they also enhance state revenues that can be reinvested in state initiatives. Some states could potentially optimize their tax rates.

[What does the Brazilian National Health Survey have to say about the influence of cigarette spending on household income?] / O que a Pesquisa Nacional de Saúde tem a dizer sobre a influência do gasto com cigarro no rendimento domiciliar?

In a country whose indicators of population impoverishment continue to increase, it is concerning that individuals spend money to buy cigarettes instead of using this resource in actions that strengthen aspects of the well-being of their lives and that of their families. Based on the Brazilian National Health Survey conducted in 2019, the influence of spending on manufactured cigarettes on the family budget in households with at least one smoker was estimated, stratified by sociodemographic characteristics. Brazilian smokers allocated around 8% of their average per capita monthly household income to the purchase of manufactured cigarettes. The percentage of average monthly expenditure on cigarettes reached almost 10% of this income among smokers aged 15 to 24 and was even higher for those with incomplete elementary education (approximately 11%). In the North and Northeast regions of the country, this expenditure exceeded 9%. The state with the most significant impact on household income was Acre (13.6%), followed by Alagoas (11.9%), Ceará, Pará, and Tocantins (all with approximately 11%). Our findings, therefore, reinforce the importance of strengthening the implementation of effective measures, such as tax policy, to reduce the proportion of smokers. Thus, the money that individuals currently allocate to purchase cigarettes can be used to meet their basic needs, contributing to the promotion of health and improving the quality of life.

Em um Brasil no qual os indicadores de empobrecimento da população seguem aumentando, preocupa o fato de que indivíduos gastem dinheiro para comprar cigarro em vez de usarem esse recurso em ações que fortaleçam aspectos do bem-estar de suas jornadas de vida e de suas famílias. Estimou-se, a partir da Pesquisa Nacional de Saúde de 2019, a influência que o gasto com cigarro industrializado teve no orçamento familiar nos domicílios com pelo menos um fumante, estratificada por características sociodemográficas. Os fumantes brasileiros destinaram cerca de 8% do rendimento médio mensal domiciliar per capita para a compra de cigarros industrializados. O percentual do gasto médio mensal chegou a quase 10% desse rendimento, entre os fumantes de 15 a 24 anos, e foi ainda maior para aqueles com Ensino Fundamental incompleto (aproximadamente 11%). Nas regiões Norte e Nordeste do país, esse gasto ultrapassou os 9%. O estado com o maior comprometimento da renda domiciliar foi o Acre (13,6%), seguido por Alagoas (11,9%), Ceará, Pará e Tocantins (todos com aproximadamente 11%). Nossos achados reforçam, portanto, a importância de fortalecer a implementação de medidas efetivas de redução da proporção de fumantes, tal como a política tributária. Dessa forma, o dinheiro que atualmente é destinado pelos indivíduos à compra de cigarros poderá ser revertido no atendimento de suas necessidades básicas, contribuindo para a promoção da saúde e melhoria da qualidade de vida.

En un Brasil donde los indicadores de empobrecimiento de la población siguen aumentando, es preocupante el hecho de que las personas gasten dinero para comprar cigarrillo en lugar de usarlo en acciones para fortalecer los aspectos del bienestar de sus vidas y la de sus familias. A partir de la Encuesta Nacional de Salud brasileña realizada en 2019, se estimó la influencia del gasto en cigarrillo industrializado en el presupuesto familiar de los hogares donde vivía al menos un fumador, estratificado por características sociodemográficas. Los fumadores brasileños destinaron alrededor del 8% del ingreso per cápita mensual promedio del hogar para la compra de cigarrillos industrializados. El porcentaje del gasto mensual promedio en cigarrillos alcanzó casi el 10% de este ingreso entre los fumadores de 15 a 24 años y fue aún mayor para los que tenían educación primaria incompleta (aproximadamente el 11%). En el Norte y Nordeste del país, ese gasto superó el 9%. El estado con un mayor compromiso con los ingresos del hogar fue Acre (el 13,6%), seguido por Alagoas (el 11,9%), Ceará, Pará y Tocantins (todos con aproximadamente el 11%). Por lo tanto, nuestros resultados resaltan la importancia de fortalecer la implementación de medidas efectivas para reducir la proporción de fumadores, tal como la política tributaria. Así, el dinero que actualmente las personas destinan a la compra de cigarrillos podría utilizarse en la atención de sus necesidades básicas, contribuyendo a promover la salud y la mejora de la calidad de vida.

Impact of cigarette price and tobacco control policies on youth smoking experimentation in Albania.

BACKGROUND: Albania has one of the highest smoking prevalence in Europe especially among the youth. There is a lack of evidence in Albania, as well as in most of Eastern Europe and middle-income countries, regarding the effect of price on smoking experimentation. OBJECTIVE: The study aims to assess the effect of price and tobacco control policies on youth smoking experimentation in Albania. METHODS: We used microdata from the Global Youth Tobacco Survey in Albania for 2004, 2009, 2015 and 2020. We constructed a pseudo-longitudinal dataset and estimated a split-population model to assess the hazard of smoking experimentation. RESULTS: Price is a significant predictor of smoking experimentation among teenagers in Albania for both males and females (p<0.001). Being male increases the odds for smoking experimentation by more than 50% as compared with females (p<0.001), whereas females appear to be more price sensitive. Peer and parent smoking are also important determinants for smoking experimentation. Introducing penalties for smokers and legal entities violating smoke-free policies implemented in 2014 is also associated with a lower hazard of smoking experimentation. CONCLUSION: Price is a significant predictor of smoking experimentation among teenagers in Albania for both males and females. A combination of increasing taxes and strengthening the rule of law to control tobacco use in public spaces, in addition to public awareness campaigns targeting both youth and smoking parents, could help to significantly reduce the probability of smoking experimentation.

Productivity costs of lifelong smoking-the Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1966 study.

BACKGROUND: Smoking is one of the leading causes of impaired health and mortality. Loss of paid and unpaid work and replacements due to morbidity and mortality result in productivity costs. Our aim was to investigate the productivity costs of lifelong smoking trajectories and cumulative exposure using advanced human capital method (HCM) and friction cost method (FCM). METHODS: Within the Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1966 (NFBC1966), 10 650 persons were followed from antenatal period to age 55 years. The life course of smoking behaviour was assessed with trajectory modelling and cumulative exposure with pack-years. Productivity costs were estimated with advanced HCM and FCM models by using detailed, national register-based data on care, disability, mortality, education, taxation, occupation and labour market. A two-part regression model was used to predict productivity costs associated with lifelong smoking and cumulative exposure. RESULTS: Of the six distinct smoking trajectories, lifetime smokers had the highest productivity costs followed by late starters, late adult quitters, young adult quitters and youth smokers. Never-smokers had the lowest productivity costs. The higher the number of pack-years, the higher the productivity costs. Uniform patterns were found in both men and women and when estimated with HCM and FCM. The findings were independent of other health behaviours. CONCLUSIONS: Cumulative exposure to smoking is more crucial to productivity costs than starting or ending age of smoking. This suggests that the harmful effects of smoking depend on dose and duration of smoking and are irrespective of age when smoking occurred.

Cigarette Prices and Smoking Experimentation Among Zimbabwean Children: A Survival Analysis of the 2014 Global Youth Tobacco Survey.

INTRODUCTION: Zimbabwe has a smoking prevalence of 11.7% among the adult population (15 years and older). Thus, in the absence of effective tobacco control measures, the economic burden of tobacco use will be aggravated, especially considering the increasing tobacco industry activity in the country. Increasing cigarette prices is one possible strategy to reduce tobacco consumption. This study seeks to examine the relationship between cigarette prices and smoking experimentation among children in Zimbabwe, thereby expanding the evidence base for the likely impact of excise taxes on cigarette demand in low- and middle-income countries. AIMS AND METHODS: A survival analysis using the Zimbabwe 2014 Global Youth Tobacco Survey data. RESULTS: A 10% increase in the price of cigarettes reduces the probability of experimenting with smoking by 9%. Also, children are more likely to experiment with smoking if they have a smoking brother or father who smokes, or see teachers who smoke. The likelihood of experimenting with smoking is higher among boys than girls and is positively associated with age. CONCLUSIONS: There is strong evidence that increasing excise taxes can play an effective role in discouraging children from experimenting with cigarette smoking. Considering the relatively low excise tax burden in Zimbabwe, the government should consider substantially increasing the excise tax burden. IMPLICATIONS: With the number of smokers in low- and middle-income countries expected to increase as the industry intensively expands its market by targeting the youth, increasing excise taxes will play a significant role in preventing children from initiating smoking and help those who are already using tobacco to quit. An increase in the excise tax increases the retail price of tobacco products, making them less affordable, and reduces the demand for them.

The association between excise taxes and smoking and vaping transitions-Findings from the 2016-2020 ITC United States surveys.

BACKGROUND: While a growing number of studies examined the effect of e-cigarette (EC) excise taxes on tobacco use behaviors using cross-sectional surveys or sales data, there are currently no studies that evaluate the impact of EC taxes on smoking and vaping transitions. METHODS: Using data from the US arm of the 2016-2020 International Tobacco Control Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey (ITC 4CV), we employed a multinomial logit model with two-way fixed effects to simultaneously estimate the impacts of cigarette/EC taxes on the change in smoking and vaping frequencies. RESULTS: Our benchmark model suggests that a 10 % increase in cigarette taxes led to an 11 % reduction in smoking frequencies (p < 0.01), while EC taxes did not have a significant effect on smoking frequencies. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that increasing cigarette taxes may serve as an effective means of encouraging people who smoke to cut back on smoking or quit smoking. The impact of increasing EC taxes on smoking transitions is less certain at this time.