Prognostic prediction tools and clinician communication: a qualitative study of the effect of the STUMBL tool on clinical practice.

BACKGROUND: In recent years, researchers and clinicians have been developing prognostic prediction tools (PPTs) as a way of identifying patients at risk of deterioration. The use of PPTs in the clinical environment not only impacts the risk of adverse outcomes for patients, but the use of these tools also effect clinical practice. Much attention has been paid to the clinical performance of PPTs. But more insight is needed on how the use of PPTs impacts clinical practice. The objective of this study was to map some of the ways in which PPTs effect clinical practice. The STUMBL (STUdy evaluating the impact of a prognostic model for Management of BLunt chest wall trauma patients) feasibility trial evaluated the use of a new prognostic prediction tool (PPT) to guide the management blunt chest wall trauma patients in the emergency departments (ED). The trial was undertaken between October 2016 and September 2018 and conducted at four sites in England and Wales. Nested within the feasibility trial was a qualitative study aimed at understanding how ED clinicians experienced and used the PPT. The qualitative methods included a focus group and telephone interviews with 9 ED clinicians. This study focused on participant perceptions of the feasibility and use of the STUMBL tool on clinical practice in the ED. RESULTS: Clinical practice is reshaped as a result of the introduction of the STUMBL PPT into the clinical environment. The PPT enhanced reflexive awareness of prognostic practice; facilitated communication between patients and professionals; helps to guide patient outcomes; and provides a common ground for clinician discussion on prognostication. CONCLUSIONS: The qualitative data collected offered useful insights into the ways in which the tool changes clinical practice. This was a small study of the effect of one kind of PPT on clinical practice. Nevertheless, this study maps areas in which clinical practice is affected by the introduction of a PPT into the clinical environment. More research is needed to better understand these effects, and to understand how these tools become embedded in clinical practice over the longer term.

A multicentre randomised feasibility STUdy evaluating the impact of a prognostic model for Management of BLunt chest wall trauma patients: STUMBL Trial.

OBJECTIVE: A new prognostic model has been developed and externally validated, the aim of which is to assist in the management of the blunt chest wall trauma patient in the emergency department (ED). The aim of this trial is to assess the feasibility and acceptability of a definitive impact trial investigating the clinical and cost-effectiveness of a new prognostic model for the management of patients with blunt chest wall trauma in the ED. DESIGN: Stepped wedge feasibility trial. SETTING: Four EDs in England and Wales. PARTICIPANTS: Adult blunt chest wall trauma patients presenting to the ED with no concurrent, life-threatening injuries. INTERVENTION: A prognostic model (the STUMBL score) to guide clinical decision-making. OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary: participant recruitment rate and clinicians' use of the STUMBL score. Secondary: composite outcome measure (mortality, pulmonary complications, delayed upgrade in care, unplanned representations to the ED), physical and mental components of quality of life, clinician feedback and health economic data gathering methodology for healthcare resource utilisation. RESULTS: Quantitative data were analysed using the intention-to-treat principle. 176 patients were recruited; recruitment targets were achieved at all sites. Clinicians used the model in 96% of intervention cases. All feasibility criteria were fully or partially met. After adjusting for predefined covariates, there were no statistically significant differences between the control and intervention periods. Qualitative analysis highlighted that STUMBL was well-received and clinicians would support a definitive trial. Collecting data on intervention costs, health-related quality of life and healthcare resource use was feasible. DISCUSSION: We have demonstrated that a fully powered randomised clinical trial of the STUMBL score is feasible and desirable to clinicians. Minor methodological modifications will be made for the full trial. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN95571506; Post-results.

Protocol for a multicentre randomised feasibility STUdy evaluating the impact of a prognostic model for Management of BLunt chest wall trauma patients: STUMBL trial.

INTRODUCTION: A new prognostic model has been developed and externally validated, the aim of which is to assist in the management of the blunt chest wall trauma patient in the emergency department (ED). A definitive randomised controlled trial (impact trial) is required to assess the clinical and cost effectiveness of the new model before it can be accepted in clinical practice. The purpose of this trial is to assess the feasibility and acceptability of such a definitive trial and inform its design. METHODS/ANALYSIS: This feasibility trial is designed to test the methods of a multicentre, cluster-randomised (stepped- wedge) trial, with a substantial qualitative component. Four EDs in England and Wales will collect data for all blunt chest wall trauma patients over a 5-month period; in the initial period acting as the controls (normal care), and in the second period acting as the interventions (in which the new model will be used). Baseline measurements including completion of the SF-12v2 will be obtained on initial assessment in the ED. Patient outcome data will then be collected for any subsequent hospitalisations. Data collection will conclude with a 6-week follow-up completion of two surveys (SF-12v2 and Client Services Receipt Inventory). Analysis of outcomes will focus on feasibility, acceptability and trial processes and will include recruitment and retention rates, attendance at clinician training rates and use of model in the ED. Qualitative feedback will be obtained through clinician interviews and a research nurse focus group. An evaluation of the feasibility of health economics outcomes data will be completed. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Wales Research Ethics Committee 6 granted approval for the trial in September 2016. Patient recruitment will commence in February 2017. Planned dissemination is through publication in a peer-reviewed Emergency Medicine Journal, presentation at appropriate conferences and to stakeholders at professional meetings. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN95571506; Pre-results.