ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to develop and validate a symptom prediction tool for COVID-19 test positivity in Nigeria. DESIGN: Predictive modelling study. SETTING: All Nigeria States and the Federal Capital Territory. PARTICIPANTS: A cohort of 43 221 individuals within the national COVID-19 surveillance dataset from 27 February to 27 August 2020. Complete dataset was randomly split into two equal halves: derivation and validation datasets. Using the derivation dataset (n=21 477), backward multivariable logistic regression approach was used to identify symptoms positively associated with COVID-19 positivity (by real-time PCR) in children (≤17 years), adults (18-64 years) and elderly (≥65 years) patients separately. OUTCOME MEASURES: Weighted statistical and clinical scores based on beta regression coefficients and clinicians' judgements, respectively. Using the validation dataset (n=21 744), area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) values were used to assess the predictive capacity of individual symptoms, unweighted score and the two weighted scores. RESULTS: Overall, 27.6% of children (4415/15 988), 34.6% of adults (9154/26 441) and 40.0% of elderly (317/792) that had been tested were positive for COVID-19. Best individual symptom predictor of COVID-19 positivity was loss of smell in children (AUROC 0.56, 95% CI 0.55 to 0.56), either fever or cough in adults (AUROC 0.57, 95% CI 0.56 to 0.58) and difficulty in breathing in the elderly (AUROC 0.53, 95% CI 0.48 to 0.58) patients. In children, adults and the elderly patients, all scoring approaches showed similar predictive performance. CONCLUSIONS: The predictive capacity of various symptom scores for COVID-19 positivity was poor overall. However, the findings could serve as an advocacy tool for more investments in resources for capacity strengthening of molecular testing for COVID-19 in Nigeria.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Adult , Aged , COVID-19 Testing , Child , Cohort Studies , Humans , Nigeria , SARS-CoV-2ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES: To report the postmortem findings of a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) positive individual who died in Lagos (Nigeria) in June 2020 and to investigate the cause, pathogenesis as well as pathological changes noticed during the examination. METHODS: Complete postmortem examination was performed according to standard procedures in a regular autopsy suite using personal protective equipment including N95 masks, goggles and disposable gowns. The diagnosis of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was confirmed by real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing on postmortem nasopharyngeal swabs. RESULTS: A 47-year-old man with a medical history of well controlled hypertension and dyslipidaemia died after long hours of transportation for medical care in a hospital in Lagos. He tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 on ante- and postmortem nasopharyngeal swabs. Autopsy revealed pneumonia with diffuse alveolar damage, disseminated intravascular coagulopathy and hypovolaemic shock. CONCLUSIONS: Autopsy can be performed on decedents who died from or with SARS-CoV-2 infection in a low resource environment such as ours. A standard autopsy room was used while deploying recommended infection prevention control and regular decontamination. The clinical details, autopsy findings such as diffuse alveolar damage and airway inflammation were consistent with a COVID-19 related pathology. While the decedent had 'controlled' co-morbidity, he succumbed to multi-organ failure occasioned by shock and disseminated intravascular coagulopathy.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: By September 2014, an outbreak of Ebola Viral Disease (EVD) in West African countries of Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Senegal and Nigeria, had recorded over 4500 and 2200 probable or confirmed cases and deaths respectively. EVD, an emerging infectious disease, can create fear and panic among patients, contacts and relatives, which could be a risk factor for psychological distress. Psychological distress among this subgroup could have public health implication for control of EVD, because of potential effects on patient management and contact tracing. We determined the Prevalence, pattern and factors associated with psychological distress among survivors and contacts of EVD and their relatives. METHODS: In a descriptive cross sectional study, we used General Health Questionnaire to assess psychological distress and Oslo Social Support Scale to assess social support among 117 participants who survived EVD, listed as EVD contacts or their relatives at Ebola Emergency Operation Center in Lagos, Nigeria. Factors associated with psychological distress were determined using chi square/odds ratio and adjusted odds ratio. RESULTS: The mean age and standard deviation of participants was 34 +/ - 9.6 years. Of 117 participants, 78 (66.7%) were females, 77 (65.8%) had a tertiary education and 45 (38.5%) were health workers. Most frequently occurring psychological distress were inability to concentrate (37.6%) and loss of sleep over worry (33.3%). Losing a relation to EVD outbreak (OR = 6.0, 95% CI, 1.2-32.9) was significantly associated with feeling unhappy or depressed while being a health worker was protective (OR = 0.4, 95% CI, 0.2-0.9). Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) showed losing a relation (AOR = 5.7, 95% CI, 1.2-28.0) was a predictor of "feeling unhappy or depressed", loss of a relation (AOR = 10.1, 95% CI, 1.7-60.7) was a predictor of inability to concentrate. CONCLUSIONS: Survivors and contacts of EVD and their relations develop psychological distress. Development of psychological distress could be predicted by loss of family member. It is recommended that psychiatrists and other mental health specialists be part of case management teams. The clinical teams managing EVD patients should be trained on recognition of common psychological distress among patients. A mental health specialist should review contacts being monitored for EVD for psychological distress or disorders.
