Suboptimal use of hormonal therapy among German men with localized high-risk prostate Cancer during 2005 to 2015: analysis of registry data.

BACKGROUND: This study assesses the use of hormonal therapy to treat high-risk localized prostate cancer (HRLPCa) cases diagnosed between 2005 and 2015. METHODS: All N0-XM0 with ≥T3a, or PCa cases with poorly differentiated feature (equivalent to Gleason score ≥ 8), diagnosed between 2005 and 2015 were extracted from German population-based cancer registries. Cases treated by surgery or chemotherapy were excluded. Description of hormonal therapy use by HRLPCa cases' profile was presented. Relative risk (RR) was computed with a log-link function to identify factors associated with hormonal therapy use among radiotherapy-treated HRLPCa cases. RESULTS: A total of 5361 HRLPCa cases were analyzed. Only 27.6% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 26.4-28.8%) of the HRLPCa cases received hormonal therapy in combination with radiotherapy. The use of combined hormonal therapy and radiotherapy varied from 19.8% in Saxony to 47.8% in Schleswig-Holstein. Application of hormonal therapy was higher for the locally advanced cases compared to the poorly differentiated cases (relative risk [RR] = 1.28; 95%CI: 1.19, 1.37). Older patients showed a slightly increased use of hormonal therapy (RR for a 10-year age increase = 1.09; 95%CI: 1.02, 1.16). Compared to PCa cases from the most affluent residential areas, cases from the least affluent (RR = 0.71; 95%CI: 0.55, 0.92) and medium (RR = 0.75; 95%CI: 0.58, 0.96) areas had decreased use of hormonal therapy. The introduction of the German S3-guideline did not make a marked difference in the uptake of both hormonal therapy and radiotherapy (RR = 1.02; 95%CI: 0.95, 1.09). CONCLUSION: This study found a low use of hormonal therapy among HRLPCa patients treated without surgery. The introduction of the German S3-guideline for prostate cancer treatment does not seem to have impacted hormonal therapy use.

Socioeconomic disparities in endometrial cancer survival in Germany: a survival analysis using population-based cancer registry data.

PURPOSE: Area-based socioeconomic deprivation has been established as an important indicator of health and a potential predictor of survival. In this study, we aimed to measure the effect of socioeconomic inequality on endometrial cancer survival. METHODS: Population-based data on patients diagnosed with endometrial cancer between 2004 and 2014 were obtained from the German Centre for Cancer Registry Data. Socioeconomic inequality was defined by the German Index of Socioeconomic Deprivation. We investigated the association of deprivation and overall survival through Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional regression models. RESULTS: A total of 21,602 women, with a mean age of 67.8 years, were included in our analysis. The observed 5-year overall survival time for endometrial cancer patients living in the most affluent districts (first quintile) was 78.6%. The overall survival rate decreased as the level of deprivation increased (77.2%, 73.9%, 76.1%, 74.7%, for patients in the second, third, fourth, and fifth quintile (most deprived patients), respectively). Cox regression models showed stage I patients living in the most deprived districts to have a higher hazard of overall mortality when compared to the cases living in the most affluent districts [Hazard ratio: 1.20; 95% Confidence interval (0.99-1.47)] after adjusting for age, tumor characteristics, and treatment. CONCLUSION: Our results indicate differences in endometrial cancer survival according to socioeconomic deprivation among stage I patients. Considering data limitations, future studies with access to individual-level patient information should be conducted to examine the underlying causes for the observed disparity in cancer survival.

Patterns of glioblastoma treatment and survival over a 16-years period: pooled data from the German Cancer Registries.

INTRODUCTION: Glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) is a primary malignant brain tumour characterized by a very low long-term survival. The aim of this study was to analyse the distribution of treatment modalities and their effect on survival for GBM cases diagnosed in Germany between 1999 and 2014. METHODS: Cases were pooled from the German Cancer Registries with International Classification of Diseases for Oncology, third edition (ICD-O-3) codes for GBM or giant-cell GBM. Three periods, first (January 1999-December 2005), second (January 2006-December 2010) and a third period (January 2011-December 2014) were defined. Kaplan-Meier plots with long-rank test compared median overall survival (OS) between groups. Survival differences were assessed with Cox proportional-hazards models adjusted for available confounders. RESULTS: In total, 40,138 adult GBM cases were analysed, with a mean age at diagnosis 64.0 ± 12.4 years. GBM was more common in men (57.3%). The median OS was 10.0 (95% CI 9.0-10.0) months. There was an increase in 2-year survival, from 16.6% in the first to 19.3% in the third period. When stratified by age group, period and treatment modalities, there was an improved median OS after 2005 due to treatment advancements. Younger age, female sex, surgical resection, use of radiotherapy and chemotherapy, were independent factors associated with better survival. CONCLUSION: The inclusion of temozolomide chemotherapy has considerably improved median OS in the older age groups but had a lesser effect in the younger age group of cases. The analysis showed survival improvements for each treatment option over time.

Socioeconomic disparities in head and neck cancer survival in Germany: a causal mediation analysis using population-based cancer registry data.

PURPOSE: Despite recent improvements in cancer treatment in Germany, a marked difference in cancer survival based on socioeconomic factors persists. We aim to quantify the effect of socioeconomic inequality on head and neck cancer (HNC) survival. METHODS: Information on 20,821 HNC patients diagnosed in 2009-2013 was routinely collected by German population-based cancer registries. Socioeconomic inequality was defined by the German Index of Socioeconomic Deprivation. The Cox proportional regression and relative survival analysis measured the survival disparity according to level of socioeconomic deprivation with respective confidence intervals (CI). A causal mediation analysis was conducted to quantify the effect of socioeconomic deprivation mediated through medical care, stage at diagnosis, and treatment on HNC survival. RESULTS: The most socioeconomically deprived patients were found to have the highest hazard of dying when compared to the most affluent (Hazard Ratio: 1.25, 95% CI 1.17-1.34). The most deprived patients also had the worst 5-year age-adjusted relative survival (50.8%, 95% CI 48.5-53.0). Our mediation analysis showed that most of the effect of deprivation on survival was mediated through differential stage at diagnosis during the first 6 months after HNC diagnosis. As follow-up time increased, medical care, stage at diagnosis, and treatment played no role in mediating the effect of deprivation on survival. CONCLUSION: This study confirms the survival disparity between affluent and deprived HNC patients in Germany. Considering data limitations, our results suggest that, within six months after HNC diagnosis, the elimination of differences in stage at diagnosis could reduce survival inequalities.

What factors are associated with maternal undernutrition in eastern zone of Tigray, Ethiopia? Evidence for nutritional well-being of lactating mothers.

BACKGROUND: Maternal undernutrition is a pervasive health problem among Ethiopian mothers. This study aims at identifying the level of maternal undernutrition and its associated factors in Kilte Awaleo-Health and Demographic Surveillance Site (KA-HDSS), Tigray region, Ethiopia. METHODS: Nutritional status of 2260 lactating mothers was evaluated using the mid-upper-arm circumference (MUAC). Data from the vital events and verbal autopsy databases were linked to the survey and baseline recensus data to investigate the association of adult mortality from chronic causes of death (CoD) on maternal undernutrition. We employed a generalized log-binomial model to estimate the independent effects of the fitted covariates. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of maternal undernutrition based on MUAC < 23 cm was 38% (95% CI: 36.1, 40.1%). Recent occurrence of household morbidity (adjusted prevalence ratio (adjPR) = 1.49; 95%CI: 1.22, 1.81) was associated with increased risk of maternal undernutrition. In addition, there was a 28% higher risk (adjPR = 1.28; 95%CI: 0.98, 1.67) of maternal undernutrition for those mothers who lived in households with history of adult mortality from chronic diseases. Especially, its association with severe maternal undernutrition was strong (adjusted OR = 3.27; 95%CI: 1.48, 7.22). In contrast, good maternal health-seeking practice (adjPR = 0.86; 95%CI: 0.77, 0.96) and production of diverse food crops (adjPR = 0.72; 95%CI: 0.64, 0.81) were associated with a lower risk of maternal undernutrition. Relative to mothers with low scores of housing and environmental factors index (HAEFI), those with medium and higher scores of HAEFI had 0.81 (adjPR = 0.81; 95%CI: 0.69, 0.95) and 0.82 (adjPR = 0.82; 95%CI: 0.72, 0.95) times lower risk of maternal undernutrition, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Efforts to ameliorate maternal undernutrition need to consider the influence of the rising epidemiology of adult mortality from chronic diseases. Our data clearly indicate the need for channeling the integrated intervention power of nutrition-sensitive development programs with that of nutrition-specific sectoral services.

Lung Cancer Attributed Mortality Among 316,336 Early Stage Breast Cancer Cases Treated by Radiotherapy and/or Chemotherapy, 2000-2015: Evidence From the SEER Database.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the risk of death from lung cancer in patients treated for breast cancer (BC) in relation to the general population. METHODS: BC data, covering 2000 to 2015, were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results-18 (SEER-18) cancer registry database. A comparison of lung cancer attributed mortality between BC patients and the general population was performed using standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and SMRs conditional on survival length (cSMRs). Prognostic factors of lung cancer mortality were identified using flexible parametric modelling. Our model adjusts the effect of downstream (histopathological BC tumor grade and hormone receptor status) and upstream (age at diagnosis, ethnicity, and marital status) factors. RESULTS: The median follow-up was 6.4 years (interquartile range, 3.0-10.3 years). BC cases who received only radiotherapy (cSMR = 0.93; 95%CI: 0.77-1.13), only chemotherapy (cSMR = 0.91; 0.62-1.33), and radio-and chemotherapy (cSMR = 1.04; 0.77-1.39) had no evidence of increased lung cancer mortality relative to the general population. The adjusted model identified that lung cancer mortality was higher for women who were older at diagnosis compared to those <50 years (ranging from HR50-59 = 3.41 [95%CI: 2.72-4.28] to HR70-79 = 10.53 [95%CI: 8.44-13.13]) and for cases with negative estrogen and progesterone receptors (HR =1.38; 95% CI: 1.21-1.57). Compared to married cases, widowed, divorced, single or others had a 76%, 45%, and 25% higher hazard of lung cancer mortality, respectively. Lung cancer mortality was lower for American Indian/Alaska Native and Asian/Pacific Islander ethnicities (HR = 0.51; 95% CI: 0.40-0.64) compared to BC cases with white ethnic background. CONCLUSIONS: There is no evidence for a higher lung cancer mortality in BC patients when compared to the general population.

Nutrition-specific and sensitive drivers of poor child nutrition in Kilte Awlaelo-Health and Demographic Surveillance Site, Tigray, Northern Ethiopia: implications for public health nutrition in resource-poor settings.

Background: Child undernutrition is a prevalent health problem and poses various short and long-term consequences. Objective: This study seeks to investigate the burden of child undernutrition and its drivers in Kilte Awlaelo-Health and Demographic Surveillance Site, Tigray, northern Ethiopia. Methods: In 2015, cross-sectional data were collected from 1,525 children aged 6-23 months. Maternal and child nutritional status was assessed using the mid upper arm circumference. Child's dietary diversity score was calculated using 24-hours dietary recall method. Log-binomial regression and partial proportional odds model were fitted to examine the drivers of poor child nutrition and child dietary diversity (CDD), respectively. Results: The burden of undernutrition and inadequate CDD was 13.7% (95% CI: 12.1-15.5%) and 81.3% (95%CI: 79.2-83.1%), respectively. Maternal undernutrition (adjusted prevalence ratio, adjPR = 1.47; 95%CI: 1.14-1.89), low CDD (adjPR = 1.90; 95%CI: 1.22-2.97), and morbidity (adjPR = 1.83; 95%CI: 1.15-2.92) were the nutrition-specific drivers of child undernutrition. The nutrition-sensitive drivers were poverty (compared to the poorest, adjPR poor = 0.65 [95%CI:0.45-0.93], adjPR medium = 0.64 [95%CI: 0.44-0.93], adjPR wealthy = 0.46 [95%CI: 0.30-0.70], and adjPR wealthiest = 0.53 [95%CI: 0.34-0.82]), larger family size (adjPR = 1.10; 95%CI: 1.02-1.18), household head's employment insecurity (adjPR = 2.10; 95%CI: 1.43-3.09), and residing in highlands (adjPR = 1.93; 95%CI: 1.36-2.75). The data show that higher CDD was positively associated with wealth (OR wealthy = 3.06 [95%CI: 1.88-4.99], OR wealthiest = 2.57 [95%CI: 1.53-4.31]), but it was inversely associated with lack of diverse food crops production in highlands (OR = 0.23; 95%CI: 0.10-0.57]). Conclusions: Our findings suggest that the burden of poor child nutrition is very high in the study area. Multi-sectoral collaboration and cross-disciplinary interventions between agriculture, nutrition and health sectors are recommended to address child undernutrition in resource poor and food insecure rural communities of similar settings.

Injury-related gaining momentum as external causes of deaths in Ethiopian health and demographic surveillance sites: evidence from verbal autopsy study.

BACKGROUND: In Ethiopia, though all kinds of mortality due to external causes are an important component of overall mortality often not counted or documented on an individual basis. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to describe the patterns of mortality from external causes using verbal autopsy (VA) method at the Ethiopian HDSS Network sites. METHODS: All deaths at Ethiopian HDSS sites were routinely registered and followed up with VA interviews. The VA forms comprised deaths up to 28 days, between four weeks and 14 years and 15 years and above. The cause of a death was ascertained based on an interview with next of families or other caregivers using a standardized questionnaire that draws information on signs, symptoms, medical history and circumstances preceding death after 45 days mourning period. Two physician assigned probable causes of death as underlying, immediate and contributing factors independently using information in VA forms based on the WHO ICD-10 and VA code system. Disagreed cases sent to third physician for independent review and diagnosis. The final cause of death considered when two of the three physicians assigned underlying cause of death; otherwise, labeled as undetermined. RESULTS: In the period from 2009 to 2013, a total of 9719 deaths were registered. Of the total deaths, 623 (6.4%) were from external causes. Of these, accidental drowning and submersion, 136 (21.8%), accidental fall, 113 (18.1%) and transport-related accidents, 112 (18.0%) were the topmost three leading external causes of deaths. About 436 (70.0%) of deaths were from the age group above 15 years old. Drowning and submersion and transport-related accidents were high in age group between 5 and 14 years old. CONCLUSION: In this study, external causes of death are significant public health problems and require attention as one of prior health agenda.

Social determinants of adult mortality from non-communicable diseases in northern Ethiopia, 2009-2015: Evidence from health and demographic surveillance site.

INTRODUCTION: In developing countries, mortality and disability from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is rising considerably. The effect of social determinants of NCDs-attributed mortality, from the context of developing countries, is poorly understood. This study examines the burden and socio-economic determinants of adult mortality attributed to NCDs in eastern Tigray, Ethiopia. METHODS: We followed 45,982 adults implementing a community based dynamic cohort design recording mortality events from September 2009 to April 2015. A physician review based Verbal autopsy was used to identify the most probable causes of death. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression was performed to identify social determinants of NCD mortality. RESULTS: Across the 193,758.7 person-years, we recorded 1,091 adult deaths. Compared to communicable diseases, NCDs accounted for a slightly higher proportion of adult deaths; 33% vs 34.5% respectively. The incidence density rate (IDR) of NCD attributed mortality was 194.1 deaths (IDR = 194.1; 95% CI = 175.4, 214.7) per 100,000 person-years. One hundred fifty-seven (41.8%), 68 (18.1%) and 34 (9%) of the 376 NCD deaths were due to cardiovascular disease, cancer and renal failure, respectively. In the multivariable analysis, age per 5-year increase (HR = 1.35; 95% CI: 1.30, 1.41), and extended family and non-family household members (HR = 2.86; 95% CI: 2.05, 3.98) compared to household heads were associated with a significantly increased hazard of NCD mortality. Although the difference was not statistically significant, compared to poor adults, those who were wealthy had a 15% (HR = 0.85; 95% CI: 0.65, 1.11) lower hazard of mortality from NCDs. On the other hand, literate adults (HR = 0.35; 95% CI: 0.13, 0.9) had a significantly decreased hazard of NCD attributed mortality compared to those adults who were unable to read and write. The effect of literacy was modified by age and its effect reduced by 18% for every 5-year increase of age among literate adults. CONCLUSION: In summary, the study indicates that double mortality burden from both NCDs and communicable diseases was evident in northern rural Ethiopia. Public health intervention measures that prioritise disadvantaged NCD patients such as those who are unable to read and write, the elders, the extended family and non-family household co-residents could significantly reduce NCD mortality among the adult population.

National mortality burden due to communicable, non-communicable, and other diseases in Ethiopia, 1990-2015: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.

BACKGROUND: Ethiopia lacks a complete vital registration system that would assist in measuring disease burden and risk factors. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) estimates to describe the mortality burden from communicable, non-communicable, and other diseases in Ethiopia over the last 25 years. METHODS: GBD 2015 mainly used cause of death ensemble modeling to measure causes of death by age, sex, and year for 195 countries. We report numbers of deaths and rates of years of life lost (YLL) for communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disorders, non-communicable diseases (NCDs), and injuries with 95% uncertainty intervals (UI) for Ethiopia from 1990 to 2015. RESULTS: CMNN causes of death have declined by 65% in the last two-and-a-half decades. Injury-related causes of death have also decreased by 70%. Deaths due to NCDs declined by 37% during the same period. Ethiopia showed a faster decline in the burden of four out of the five leading causes of age-standardized premature mortality rates when compared to the overall sub-Saharan African region and the Eastern sub-Saharan African region: lower respiratory infections, tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS, and diarrheal diseases; however, the same could not be said for ischemic heart disease and other NCDs. Non-communicable diseases, together, were the leading causes of age-standardized mortality rates, whereas CMNN diseases were leading causes of premature mortality in 2015. Although lower respiratory infections, tuberculosis, and diarrheal disease were the leading causes of age-standardized death rates, they showed major declines from 1990 to 2015. Neonatal encephalopathy, iron-deficiency anemia, protein-energy malnutrition, and preterm birth complications also showed more than a 50% reduction in burden. HIV/AIDS-related deaths have also decreased by 70% since 2005. Ischemic heart disease, hemorrhagic stroke, and ischemic stroke were among the top causes of premature mortality and age-standardized death rates in Ethiopia in 2015. CONCLUSIONS: Ethiopia has been successful in reducing deaths related to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional deficiency diseases and injuries by 65%, despite unacceptably high maternal and neonatal mortality rates. However, the country's performance regarding non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular disease, diabetes, cancer, and chronic respiratory disease, was minimal, causing these diseases to join the leading causes of premature mortality and death rates in 2015. While the country is progressing toward universal health coverage, prevention and control strategies in Ethiopia should consider the double burden of common infectious diseases and non-communicable diseases: lower respiratory infections, diarrhea, tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS, cardiovascular disease, cancer, and diabetes. Prevention and control strategies should also pay special attention to the leading causes of premature mortality and death rates caused by non-communicable diseases: cardiovascular disease, cancer, and diabetes. Measuring further progress requires a data revolution in generating, managing, analyzing, and using data for decision-making and the creation of a full vital registration system in the country.

National disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 257 diseases and injuries in Ethiopia, 1990-2015: findings from the global burden of disease study 2015.

BACKGROUND: Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) provide a summary measure of health and can be a critical input to guide health systems, investments, and priority-setting in Ethiopia. We aimed to determine the leading causes of premature mortality and disability using DALYs and describe the relative burden of disease and injuries in Ethiopia. METHODS: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for non-fatal disease burden, cause-specific mortality, and all-cause mortality to derive age-standardized DALYs by sex for Ethiopia for each year. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs) for each age group and sex. Causes of death by age, sex, and year were measured mainly using Causes of Death Ensemble modeling. To estimate YLDs, a Bayesian meta-regression method was used. We reported DALY rates per 100,000 for communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disorders, non-communicable diseases, and injuries, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UI) for Ethiopia. RESULTS: Non-communicable diseases caused 23,118.1 (95% UI, 17,124.4-30,579.6), CMNN disorders resulted in 20,200.7 (95% UI, 16,532.2-24,917.9), and injuries caused 3781 (95% UI, 2642.9-5500.6) age-standardized DALYs per 100,000 in Ethiopia in 2015. Lower respiratory infections, diarrheal diseases, and tuberculosis were the top three leading causes of DALYs in 2015, accounting for 2998 (95% UI, 2173.7-4029), 2592.5 (95% UI, 1850.7-3495.1), and 2562.9 (95% UI, 1466.1-4220.7) DALYs per 100,000, respectively. Ischemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease were the fourth and fifth leading causes of age-standardized DALYs, with rates of 2535.7 (95% UI, 1603.7-3843.2) and 2159.9 (95% UI, 1369.7-3216.3) per 100,000, respectively. The following causes showed a reduction of 60% or more over the last 25 years: lower respiratory infections, diarrheal diseases, tuberculosis, neonatal encephalopathy, preterm birth complications, meningitis, malaria, protein-energy malnutrition, iron-deficiency anemia, measles, war and legal intervention, and maternal hemorrhage. CONCLUSIONS: Ethiopia has been successful in reducing age-standardized DALYs related to most communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional deficiency diseases in the last 25 years, causing a major ranking shift to types of non-communicable disease. Lower respiratory infections, diarrheal disease, and tuberculosis continue to be leading causes of premature death, despite major declines in burden. Non-communicable diseases also showed reductions as premature mortality declined; however, disability outcomes for these causes did not show declines. Recently developed non-communicable disease strategies may need to be amended to focus on cardiovascular diseases, cancer, diabetes, and major depressive disorders. Increasing trends of disabilities due to neonatal encephalopathy, preterm birth complications, and neonatal disorders should be emphasized in the national newborn survival strategy. Generating quality data should be a priority through the development of new initiatives such as vital events registration, surveillance programs, and surveys to address gaps in data. Measuring disease burden at subnational regional state levels and identifying variations with urban and rural population health should be conducted to support health policy in Ethiopia.

One-fourth of the prisoners are underweight in Northern Ethiopia: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Despite the fact that prisoners are exposed to different health problems, prison health problems are often overlooked by researchers and no previous study has investigated nutritional problems of prisoners in Ethiopia. METHODS: Cross-sectional data were collected from 809 prisoners from nine major prison setups in the Tigray region of Ethiopia. A proportional stratified sampling technique was used to select the total number of participants needed from each prison site. The outcome of this study was underweight defined as body mass index (BMI) of less than 18.5 kg/m2. Multivariable binary logistic regression was performed to identify determinants of underweight at a p-value of less than 0.05. RESULTS: The prevalence of underweight was 25.2% (95% CI; 22.3%- 28.3%). Khat Chewing (OR = 2.08; 95% CI = 1.17, 3.70) and longer duration of incarceration (OR = 1.07; 95% CI = 1.01, 1.14) were associated with a significantly increased risk of underweight. Additionally, previous incarceration (OR = 1.54; 95% CI = 0.99, 2.42) was a relevant determinant of underweight with a borderline significance. In contrast, family support (OR = 0.61; 95% CI = 0.43, 0.85) and farmer occupation (OR = 0.59; 95% CI = 0.36, 0.98) compared to those who were unemployed were important protective determinants significantly associated with lower risk of underweight. CONCLUSION: In summary, the burden of underweight was higher among prisoners in Tigray region who had respiratory tract infections. The study has enhanced our understanding of the determinants of underweight in the prison population. We strongly recommend that nutritional support, such as therapeutic feeding programs for severely or moderately underweight prisoners, and environmental health interventions of the prison setups should be urgently implemented to correct the uncovered nutritional problem and its associated factors for improving the health status of prisoners.

Global, Regional, and National Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases for 10 Causes, 1990 to 2015.

BACKGROUND: The burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) remains unclear in many regions of the world. OBJECTIVES: The GBD (Global Burden of Disease) 2015 study integrated data on disease incidence, prevalence, and mortality to produce consistent, up-to-date estimates for cardiovascular burden. METHODS: CVD mortality was estimated from vital registration and verbal autopsy data. CVD prevalence was estimated using modeling software and data from health surveys, prospective cohorts, health system administrative data, and registries. Years lived with disability (YLD) were estimated by multiplying prevalence by disability weights. Years of life lost (YLL) were estimated by multiplying age-specific CVD deaths by a reference life expectancy. A sociodemographic index (SDI) was created for each location based on income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. RESULTS: In 2015, there were an estimated 422.7 million cases of CVD (95% uncertainty interval: 415.53 to 427.87 million cases) and 17.92 million CVD deaths (95% uncertainty interval: 17.59 to 18.28 million CVD deaths). Declines in the age-standardized CVD death rate occurred between 1990 and 2015 in all high-income and some middle-income countries. Ischemic heart disease was the leading cause of CVD health lost globally, as well as in each world region, followed by stroke. As SDI increased beyond 0.25, the highest CVD mortality shifted from women to men. CVD mortality decreased sharply for both sexes in countries with an SDI >0.75. CONCLUSIONS: CVDs remain a major cause of health loss for all regions of the world. Sociodemographic change over the past 25 years has been associated with dramatic declines in CVD in regions with very high SDI, but only a gradual decrease or no change in most regions. Future updates of the GBD study can be used to guide policymakers who are focused on reducing the overall burden of noncommunicable disease and achieving specific global health targets for CVD.

Tuberculosis knowledge, attitudes, and practices among northern Ethiopian prisoners: Implications for TB control efforts.

INTRODUCTION: Although awareness is an important component in tuberculosis (TB) control, we do not know how much Ethiopian prisoners know about TB. This study assessed the level of knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) of prisoners about TB in eight northern Ethiopian prisons. METHODS: Data were collected cross-sectionally from 615 prisoners using a standardized questionnaire between March and May 2016. The outcome variables were defined considering the basic elements about TB. RESULTS: Out of 615 prisoners, only 37.7% mentioned bacteria as a cause of TB while 21.7% related TB to exposure to cold wind. Eighty-eight per cent correctly mentioned the aerial route of TB transmission and 27.3% had perceived stigma towards TB. The majority (63.7%) was not aware of the possibility of getting multi-drug-resistant strains when they would not adhere to treatment. Overall, only 24% knew the basic elements about TB, 41% had favorable attitudes, and 55% had a good practice. Prisoners who were urban residents were generally more knowledgeable than rural residents (adjusted OR = 2.16; 95% CI = 1.15-4.06). Illiterates were found to be less knowledgeable (adjusted OR = 0.17; 95% CI = 0.06-0.46), less likely to have a favorable attitude (adjusted OR = 0.31; 95% CI = 0.15-0.64), and less good practice (adjusted OR = 0.35; 95% CI = 0.18-0.69). Significant differences were also observed between the different study prisons. CONCLUSIONS: Knowledge of prisoners regarding the cause of TB and consequences of non-adherence to TB treatment was low. Knowledge on the transmission, symptoms, and prevention was fairly high. Health education interventions, focused on the cause and the translation of the knowledge to appropriate practices, are needed in all the study prisons. Special attention should be given to less educated prisoners, and to prisons with a high number of prisoners and those in remote areas.

Burden and Determinants of Smoking among Prisoners with Respiratory Tract Infection: A Cross-Sectional Study of Nine Major Prison Setups in Northern Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Morbidity, mortality and a wide range of associated risk factors are disproportionately clustered among prisoners compared to the general population. Smoking is one of the risk factors for the increased burden of unfavorable health outcomes particularly among prisoners. However, little is known about the level and determinants of smoking among the incarcerated population in Ethiopia. METHODS: We collected data from 738 prisoners in nine major prison setups in Tigray region by nurses and clinical officers. Data were entered in to Epi Data 3.1 and exported to stata 13.0 for cleaning and further analysis. Multivariable logistic regression model was fitted to identify determinants of smoking at p value of less than 5%. RESULT: The prevalence of smoking was 21 per cent (95%CI = 18.2%, 24.1). Urban residence (AOR = 2.15; 95%CI = 1.20, 3.84), previous history of incarceration (AOR = 1.91; 95%CI = 1.08, 3.40) and alcohol use before incarcerated (AOR = 4.20; 95%CI = 2.57, 6.87) were significantly associated with risk of smoking. In contrast, risk of smoking was significantly lower for farmers (AOR = 0.20; 95% CI = 0.08, 0.49), prisoners with family support (AOR = 0.52; 95% CI = 0.32, 0.87) and for those who were jailed in Shire prison site (AOR = 0.43; 95%CI = 0.20, 0.95). CONCLUSION: Our work clearly indicates that the observed smoking prevalence calls for the need of comprehensive and interdisciplinary interventions targeting prisoners.

The impact of dietary risk factors on the burden of non-communicable diseases in Ethiopia: findings from the Global Burden of Disease study 2013.

BACKGROUND: The burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) has increased in sub-Saharan countries, including Ethiopia. The contribution of dietary behaviours to the NCD burden in Ethiopia has not been evaluated. This study, therefore, aimed to assess diet-related burden of disease in Ethiopia between 1990 and 2013. METHOD: We used the 2013 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data to estimate deaths, years of life lost (YLLs) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) related to eight food types, five nutrients and fibre intake. Dietary exposure was estimated using a Bayesian hierarchical meta-regression. The effect size of each diet-disease pair was obtained based on meta-analyses of prospective observational studies and randomized controlled trials. A comparative risk assessment approach was used to quantify the proportion of NCD burden associated with dietary risk factors. RESULTS: In 2013, dietary factors were responsible for 60,402 deaths (95% Uncertainty Interval [UI]: 44,943-74,898) in Ethiopia-almost a quarter (23.0%) of all NCD deaths. Nearly nine in every ten diet-related deaths (88.0%) were from cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and 44.0% of all CVD deaths were related to poor diet. Suboptimal diet accounted for 1,353,407 DALYs (95% UI: 1,010,433-1,672,828) and 1,291,703 YLLs (95% UI: 961,915-1,599,985). Low intake of fruits and vegetables and high intake of sodium were the most important dietary factors. The proportion of NCD deaths associated with low fruit consumption slightly increased (11.3% in 1990 and 11.9% in 2013). In these years, the rate of burden of disease related to poor diet slightly decreased; however, their contribution to NCDs remained stable. CONCLUSIONS: Dietary behaviour contributes significantly to the NCD burden in Ethiopia. Intakes of diet low in fruits and vegetables and high in sodium are the leading dietary risks. To effectively mitigate the oncoming NCD burden in Ethiopia, multisectoral interventions are required; and nutrition policies and dietary guidelines should be developed.

Global and National Burden of Diseases and Injuries Among Children and Adolescents Between 1990 and 2013: Findings From the Global Burden of Disease 2013 Study.

IMPORTANCE: The literature focuses on mortality among children younger than 5 years. Comparable information on nonfatal health outcomes among these children and the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among older children and adolescents is scarce. OBJECTIVE: To determine levels and trends in the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among younger children (aged <5 years), older children (aged 5-9 years), and adolescents (aged 10-19 years) between 1990 and 2013 in 188 countries from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 study. EVIDENCE REVIEW: Data from vital registration, verbal autopsy studies, maternal and child death surveillance, and other sources covering 14,244 site-years (ie, years of cause of death data by geography) from 1980 through 2013 were used to estimate cause-specific mortality. Data from 35,620 epidemiological sources were used to estimate the prevalence of the diseases and sequelae in the GBD 2013 study. Cause-specific mortality for most causes was estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble Model strategy. For some infectious diseases (eg, HIV infection/AIDS, measles, hepatitis B) where the disease process is complex or the cause of death data were insufficient or unavailable, we used natural history models. For most nonfatal health outcomes, DisMod-MR 2.0, a Bayesian metaregression tool, was used to meta-analyze the epidemiological data to generate prevalence estimates. FINDINGS: Of the 7.7 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 7.4-8.1) million deaths among children and adolescents globally in 2013, 6.28 million occurred among younger children, 0.48 million among older children, and 0.97 million among adolescents. In 2013, the leading causes of death were lower respiratory tract infections among younger children (905.059 deaths; 95% UI, 810,304-998,125), diarrheal diseases among older children (38,325 deaths; 95% UI, 30,365-47,678), and road injuries among adolescents (115,186 deaths; 95% UI, 105,185-124,870). Iron deficiency anemia was the leading cause of years lived with disability among children and adolescents, affecting 619 (95% UI, 618-621) million in 2013. Large between-country variations exist in mortality from leading causes among children and adolescents. Countries with rapid declines in all-cause mortality between 1990 and 2013 also experienced large declines in most leading causes of death, whereas countries with the slowest declines had stagnant or increasing trends in the leading causes of death. In 2013, Nigeria had a 12% global share of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections and a 38% global share of deaths from malaria. India had 33% of the world's deaths from neonatal encephalopathy. Half of the world's diarrheal deaths among children and adolescents occurred in just 5 countries: India, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Pakistan, Nigeria, and Ethiopia. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Understanding the levels and trends of the leading causes of death and disability among children and adolescents is critical to guide investment and inform policies. Monitoring these trends over time is also key to understanding where interventions are having an impact. Proven interventions exist to prevent or treat the leading causes of unnecessary death and disability among children and adolescents. The findings presented here show that these are underused and give guidance to policy makers in countries where more attention is needed.

The global burden of injury: incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years and time trends from the Global Burden of Disease study 2013.

BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Diseases (GBD), Injuries, and Risk Factors study used the disability-adjusted life year (DALY) to quantify the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors. This paper provides an overview of injury estimates from the 2013 update of GBD, with detailed information on incidence, mortality, DALYs and rates of change from 1990 to 2013 for 26 causes of injury, globally, by region and by country. METHODS: Injury mortality was estimated using the extensive GBD mortality database, corrections for ill-defined cause of death and the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on inpatient and outpatient data sets, 26 cause-of-injury and 47 nature-of-injury categories, and seven follow-up studies with patient-reported long-term outcome measures. RESULTS: In 2013, 973 million (uncertainty interval (UI) 942 to 993) people sustained injuries that warranted some type of healthcare and 4.8 million (UI 4.5 to 5.1) people died from injuries. Between 1990 and 2013 the global age-standardised injury DALY rate decreased by 31% (UI 26% to 35%). The rate of decline in DALY rates was significant for 22 cause-of-injury categories, including all the major injuries. CONCLUSIONS: Injuries continue to be an important cause of morbidity and mortality in the developed and developing world. The decline in rates for almost all injuries is so prominent that it warrants a general statement that the world is becoming a safer place to live in. However, the patterns vary widely by cause, age, sex, region and time and there are still large improvements that need to be made.

Infant mortality and causes of infant deaths in rural Ethiopia: a population-based cohort of 3684 births.

BACKGROUND: Ethiopia has made large-scale healthcare investments to improve child health and survival. However, there is insufficient population level data on the current estimates of infant mortality rate (IMR) in the country. The aim of this study was to measure infant mortality rate, investigate risk factors for infant deaths and identify causes of death in a rural population of northern Ethiopia. METHODS: Live births to a cohort of mothers under the Kilite Awlaelo Health and Demographic Surveillance System were followed up to their first birthday or death, between September 11, 2009 and September 10, 2013. Maternal and infant characteristics were collected at baseline and during the regular follow-up visit. Multiple-Cox regression was used to investigate risk factors for infant death. Causes of infant death were identified using physician review verbal autopsy method. RESULTS: Of the total 3684 infants followed, 174 of them died before their first birthday, yielding an IMR of 47 per 1000 live births (95 % CI: 41, 54) over the four years of follow-up. About 96 % of infants survived up to their first birthday, and 56 % of infant deaths occurred during the neonatal period. Infants born to mothers aged 15-19 years old had higher risk of death (HR = 2.68, 95 % CI: 1. 74, 4.87) than those born to 25-29 years old. Infants of mothers who attained a secondary school and above had 56 % lower risk of death (HR = 0.44, 95 % CI: 0.24, 0.81) compared to those whose mothers did not attend formal education. Sepsis, prematurity and asphyxia and acute lower respiratory tract infections were the commonest causes of death. CONCLUSION: The IMR for the four-year period was lower than the national and regional estimates. Our findings suggest the need to improve the newborn care, and empower teenagers to delay teenage pregnancy and attain higher levels of education.