Evaluating the effects of climate change on summertime ozone using a relative response factor approach for policymakers.

UNLABELLED: The impact of climate change on surface-level ozone is examined through a multiscale modeling effort that linked global and regional climate models to drive air quality model simulations. Results are quantified in terms of the relative response factor (RRF(E)), which estimates the relative change in peak ozone concentration for a given change in pollutant emissions (the subscript E is added to RRF to remind the reader that the RRF is due to emission changes only). A matrix of model simulations was conducted to examine the individual and combined effects offuture anthropogenic emissions, biogenic emissions, and climate on the RRF(E). For each member in the matrix of simulations the warmest and coolest summers were modeled for the present-day (1995-2004) and future (2045-2054) decades. A climate adjustment factor (CAF(C) or CAF(CB) when biogenic emissions are allowed to change with the future climate) was defined as the ratio of the average daily maximum 8-hr ozone simulated under a future climate to that simulated under the present-day climate, and a climate-adjusted RRF(EC) was calculated (RRF(EC) = RRF(E) x CAF(C)). In general, RRF(EC) > RRF(E), which suggests additional emission controls will be required to achieve the same reduction in ozone that would have been achieved in the absence of climate change. Changes in biogenic emissions generally have a smaller impact on the RRF(E) than does future climate change itself The direction of the biogenic effect appears closely linked to organic-nitrate chemistry and whether ozone formation is limited by volatile organic compounds (VOC) or oxides of nitrogen (NO(x) = NO + NO2). Regions that are generally NO(x) limited show a decrease in ozone and RRF(EC), while VOC-limited regions show an increase in ozone and RRF(EC). Comparing results to a previous study using different climate assumptions and models showed large variability in the CAF(CB). IMPLICATIONS: We present a methodology for adjusting the RRF to account for the influence of climate change on ozone. The findings of this work suggest that in some geographic regions, climate change has the potential to negate decreases in surface ozone concentrations that would otherwise be achieved through ozone mitigation strategies. In regions of high biogenic VOC emissions relative to anthropogenic NO(x) emissions, the impact of climate change is somewhat reduced, while the opposite is true in regions of high anthropogenic NO(x) emissions relative to biogenic VOC emissions. Further, different future climate realizations are shown to impact ozone in different ways.

Characterization of aerosols containing Zn, Pb, and Cl from an industrial region of Mexico City.

Recent ice core measurements show lead concentrations increasing since 1970, suggesting new nonautomobile-related sources of Pb are becoming important worldwide (1). Developing a full understanding of the major sources of Pb and other metals is critical to controlling these emissions. During the March, 2006 MILAGRO campaign, single particle measurements in Mexico City revealed the frequent appearance of particles internally mixed with Zn, Pb, Cl, and P. Pb concentrations were as high as 1.14 microg/m3 in PM10 and 0.76 microg/m3 in PM2.5. Real time measurements were used to select time periods of interest to perform offline analysis to obtain detailed aerosol speciation. Many Zn-rich particles had needle-like structures and were found to be composed of ZnO and/or Zn(NO3)2 x 6H2O. The internally mixed Pb-Zn-Cl particles represented as much as 73% of the fine mode particles (by number) in the morning hours between 2-5 am. The Pb-Zn-Cl particles were primarily in the submicrometer size range and typically mixed with elemental carbon suggesting a combustion source. The unique single particle chemical associations measured in this study closely match signatures indicative of waste incineration. Our findings also show these industrial emissions play an important role in heterogeneous processing of NO(y) species. Primary emissions of metal and sodium chloride particles emitted by the same source underwent heterogeneous transformations into nitrate particles as soon as photochemical production of nitric acid began each day at approximately 7 am.