Predicting survival in patients with 'non-high-risk' acute variceal bleeding receiving ß-blockers+ligation to prevent re-bleeding.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Pre-emptive transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) is the treatment of choice for high-risk acute variceal bleeding (AVB; i.e., Child-Turcotte-Pugh [CTP] B8-9+active bleeding/C10-13). Nevertheless, some 'non-high-risk' patients have poor outcomes despite the combination of non-selective beta-blockers and endoscopic variceal ligation for secondary prophylaxis. We investigated prognostic factors for re-bleeding and mortality in 'non-high-risk' AVB to identify subgroups who may benefit from more potent treatments (i.e., TIPS) to prevent further decompensation and mortality. METHODS: A total of 2,225 adults with cirrhosis and variceal bleeding were prospectively recruited at 34 centres between 2011-2015; for the purpose of this study, case definitions and information on prognostic indicators at index AVB and on day 5 were further refined in low-risk patients, of whom 581 (without failure to control bleeding or contraindications to TIPS) who were managed by non-selective beta-blockers/endoscopic variceal ligation, were finally included. Patients were followed for 1 year. RESULTS: Overall, 90 patients (15%) re-bled and 70 (12%) patients died during follow-up. Using clinical routine data, no meaningful predictors of re-bleeding were identified. However, re-bleeding (included as a time-dependent co-variable) increased mortality, even after accounting for differences in patient characteristics (adjusted cause-specific hazard ratio: 2.57; 95% CI 1.43-4.62; p = 0.002). A nomogram including CTP, creatinine, and sodium measured at baseline accurately (concordance: 0.752) stratified the risk of death. CONCLUSION: The majority of 'non-high-risk' patients with AVB have an excellent prognosis, if treated according to current recommendations. However, about one-fifth of patients, i.e. those with CTP ≥8 and/or high creatinine levels or hyponatremia, have a considerable risk of death within 1 year of the index bleed. Future clinical trials should investigate whether elective TIPS placement reduces mortality in these patients. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: Pre-emptive transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt placement improves outcomes in high-risk acute variceal bleeding; nevertheless, some 'non-high-risk' patients have poor outcomes despite the combination of non-selective beta-blockers and endoscopic variceal ligation. This is the first large-scale study investigating prognostic factors for re-bleeding and mortality in 'non-high-risk' acute variceal bleeding. While no clinically meaningful predictors were identified for re-bleeding, we developed a nomogram integrating baseline Child-Turcotte-Pugh score, creatinine, and sodium to stratify mortality risk. Our study paves the way for future clinical trials evaluating whether elective transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt placement improves outcomes in presumably 'non-high-risk' patients who are identified as being at increased risk of death.

Lowering Portal Pressure Improves Outcomes of Patients With Cirrhosis, With or Without Ascites: A Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: In unselected patients with cirrhosis, those with reductions in hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) to below a defined threshold (responders) have a reduced risk of variceal hemorrhage (VH) and death. We performed a meta-analysis to compare this effect in patients with vs without ascites. METHODS: We collected data from 15 studies of primary or secondary prophylaxis of VH that reported data on VH and death in responders vs nonresponders. We included studies in which data on ascites at baseline and on other relevant outcomes during follow-up evaluation were available. We performed separate meta-analyses for patients with vs without ascites. RESULTS: Of the 1113 patients included in the studies, 968 patients (87%) had been treated with nonselective ß-blockers. In 993 patients (89%), HVPG response was defined as a decrease of more than 20% from baseline (>10% in 11% of patients) or to less than 12 mm Hg. In the 661 patients without ascites, responders (n = 329; 50%) had significantly lower odds of events (ascites, VH, or encephalopathy) than nonresponders (odds ratio [OR], 0.35; 95% CI, 0.22-0.56). Odds of death or liver transplantation were also significantly lower among responders than nonresponders (OR, 0.50, 95% CI, 0.32-0.78). In the 452 patients with ascites, responders (n = 188; 42%) had significantly lower odds of events (VH, refractory ascites, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, or hepatorenal syndrome) than nonresponders (OR, 0.27; 95% CI, 0.16-0.43). Overall, odds of death or liver transplantation were lower among responders (OR, 0.47; 95% CI, 0.29-0.75). No heterogeneity was observed among studies. CONCLUSIONS: In a meta-analysis of clinical trials, we found that patients with cirrhosis with and without ascites who respond to treatment with nonselective ß-blockers (based on reductions in HVPG) have a reduced risk of events, death, or liver transplantation.

Non-Invasive Prediction of High-Risk Varices in Patients with Primary Biliary Cholangitis and Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis.

BACKGROUND: Baveno-VI guidelines recommend that patients with compensated cirrhosis with liver stiffness by transient elastography (LSM-TE) <20 kPa and platelets >150,000/mm(3) do not need an esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) to screen for varices, since the risk of having varices needing treatment (VNT) is <5%. It remains uncertain if this tool can be used in patients with cholestatic liver diseases (ChLDs): primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) and primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC). These patients may have a pre-sinusoidal component of portal hypertension that could affect the performance of this rule. In this study we evaluated the performance of Baveno-VI, expanded Baveno-VI (LSM-TE <25 kPa and platelets >110,000/mm(3)), and other criteria in predicting the absence of VNT. METHODS: This was a multicenter cross-sectional study in four referral hospitals. We retrospectively analyzed data from 227 patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) due to PBC (n = 147) and PSC (n = 80) that had paired EGD and LSM-TE. We calculated false negative rate (FNR) and number of saved endoscopies for each prediction rule. RESULTS: Prevalence of VNT was 13%. Baveno-VI criteria had a 0% FNR in PBC and PSC, saving 39 and 30% of EGDs, respectively. In PBC the other LSM-TE-based criteria resulted in FNRs >5%. In PSC the expanded Baveno criteria had an adequate performance. In both conditions LSM-TE-independent criteria resulted in an acceptable FNR but saved less EGDs. CONCLUSIONS: Baveno-VI criteria can be applied in patients with cACLD due to ChLDs, which would result in saving 30-40% of EGDs. Expanded criteria in PBC would lead to FNRs >5%.

Fat-free muscle mass in magnetic resonance imaging predicts acute-on-chronic liver failure and survival in decompensated cirrhosis.

Muscle mass seems to be a prognostic marker in patients with liver cirrhosis. However, reported methods to quantify muscle mass are heterogeneous, consented cutoff values are missing, and most studies have used computed tomography. This study evaluated fat-free muscle area (FFMA) as a marker of sarcopenia using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in patients with decompensated cirrhosis with transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS). The total erector spinae muscle area and the intramuscular fat tissue area were measured and subtracted to calculate the FFMA in 116 patients with cirrhosis by TIPS and MRI. The training cohort of 71 patients compared computed tomography-measured transversal psoas muscle thickness with FFMA. In 15 patients MRI was performed before and after TIPS, and in 12 patients follistatin serum measurements were carried out. The results on FFMA were confirmed in a validation cohort of 45 patients. FFMA correlated with follistatin and transversal psoas muscle thickness and showed slightly better association with survival than transversal psoas muscle thickness. Gender-specific cutoff values for FFMA were determined for sarcopenia. Decompensation (ascites, overt hepatic encephalopathy) persisted after TIPS in the sarcopenia group but resolved in the nonsarcopenia group. Sarcopenic patients showed no clinical improvement after TIPS as well as higher mortality, mainly due to development of acute-on-chronic liver failure. FFMA was an independent predictor of survival in these patients. CONCLUSION: This study offers an easy-to-apply MRI-based measurement of fat-free muscle mass as a marker of sarcopenia in decompensated patients; while TIPS might improve sarcopenia and thereby survival, persistence of sarcopenia after TIPS is associated with a reduced response to TIPS and a higher risk of acute-on-chronic liver failure development and mortality. (Hepatology 2018;67:1014-1026).

Association Between Severe Portal Hypertension and Risk of Liver Decompensation in Patients With Hepatitis C, Regardless of Response to Antiviral Therapy.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) is associated with a risk of liver events in patients with chronic hepatitis C. Antiviral therapies that lead to a sustained virologic response (SVR) reduce portal pressure and prevent liver disease progression. However, it is not clear to what extent the progression of hepatitis C is modified once patients develop cirrhosis with severe portal hypertension (CSPH) (HVPG ≥ 10 mm Hg). We assessed the effects of HVPG and SVR on the risk of liver decompensation, hepatocellular carcinoma, and/or death in patients with hepatitis C-related cirrhosis. METHODS: We collected data from 100 patients with hepatitis C and compensated cirrhosis who underwent HVPG measurement 3 months or less before (baseline) and 24 weeks after therapy with pegylated interferon alfa-2a and ribavirin at 4 hospitals in Spain, from 2001 through 2009. SVR was defined as undetectable serum HCV RNA level 24 weeks after treatment ended. Clinical data were collected until death, liver transplantation, or December 2012 (median, 5 y; interquartile range, 1.4-7 y). RESULTS: Seventy-four patients had CSPH at baseline and 35% of patients achieved an SVR. During the follow-up period, 19 patients developed liver decompensation (ascites, variceal bleeding, or encephalopathy). The actuarial probability values for liver decompensation at 1, 5, and 7 years were 3%, 19% and 22%, respectively. The baseline level of HVPG, but not SVR, was associated independently with the risk of liver decompensation. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with CSPH, regardless of an SVR to therapy for hepatitis C, remain at risk for liver decompensation within the first 5 years after treatment; they should be monitored closely.