Can we predict kidney involvement in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus? A retrospective cohort study with independent validation.

OBJECTIVES: To discern predictive factors for incident kidney involvement in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). METHODS: Patients with SLE from the 'Attikon' Lupus cohort were monitored for lupus nephritis (LN), defined by kidney histology and/or classification criteria. Demographic and clinical characteristics at baseline were compared against patients who did not develop LN. LN-free survival curves were generated by Kaplan-Meier. A multivariate Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify independent predictors of LN. Independent validation was performed in the University of Crete Lupus registry. RESULTS: Among the 570 patients in the derivation cohort, 59 exhibited LN as their initial presentation, while an additional 66 developed LN during the follow-up period (collectively, 21.9% incidence). In the latter group, baseline factors predictive of subsequent kidney involvement were male sex (multivariable-adjusted [a]HR 4.31, 95% CI: 1.82-10.2), age of SLE diagnosis below 26 years (aHR 3.71, 95% CI: 1.84-7.48), high anti-dsDNA titre (aHR 2.48, 95% CI: 1.03-5.97) and low C3 and/or C4 (although not statistically significant, aHR 2.24, 95% CI: 0.83-6.05, p= 0.11). A combination of these factors at time of diagnosis conferred an almost 90-fold risk compared with serologically inactive, older, female patients (aHR 88.77, 95% CI : 18.75-420.41), signifying a very high-risk group. Independent validation in the Crete Lupus registry showed concordant results with the original cohort. CONCLUSION: Male sex, younger age and serologic activity at SLE diagnosis are strongly associated with subsequent kidney involvement. Vigilant surveillance and consideration of early use of disease-modifying drugs is warranted in these subsets of patients.

Focus on Filgotinib in Rheumatoid Arthritis: A Trial-Based Review.

Janus kinases (JAK)/Signal Transducer and Activator of Transcription (STAT) pathway is involved in pathophysiologic cascade of a notable number of rheumatic diseases. The development of JAK inhibitors has expanded treatment choices in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) with a sustained class-effect efficacy. Filgotinib is a novel selective inhibitor of JAK1 isoform licensed for use in RA and ulcerative colitis. In this review we aim to present an analysis of filgotinib's efficacy and drug-specific safety warnings. Patients with RA with or without concomitant conventional synthetic Disease-Modifying Antirheumatic Drugs (csDMARDs) (naïve or experienced) and those who have failed biologic Disease-Modifying Antirheumatic Drugs (bDMARDs) were examined in randomised clinical trials. Filgotinib was also tested against placebo, methotrexate, or adalimumab. Long-term extension trials provide insights for up to four years of continuous filgotinib administration. Beneficial effects are depicted in both disease activity parameters and quality of life indexes in moderate or severe RA with a longitudinal efficacy. In head-to-head comparison with adalimumab, filgotinib 200 mg was non-inferior. Adverse effects alerts are marked by the elevated risk of infectious adverse effects with the exception of herpes zoster infection, which has a low incidence.

Investigating the Role of T-bet+ B Cells (ABCs/DN) in the Immunopathogenesis of Systemic Lupus Erythematosus.

Background: Age-associated B cells (ABCs) constitute a B cell subset, defined as CD19+CD21-CD11c+, that expands continuously with age and accumulates strongly in individuals with autoimmune and/or infectious diseases. In humans, ABCs are principally IgD-CD27- double-negative (DN) B cells. Data from murine models of autoimmunity, implicate ABCs/DN in the development of autoimmune disorders. T-bet, a transcription factor which is highly expressed in these cells, is considered to play a major role in various aspects of autoimmunity, such as the production of autoantibodies and the formation of spontaneous germinal centres. Aims of the study: Despite the available data, the functional features of ABCs/DN and their exact role in the pathogenesis of autoimmunity remain elusive. This project focuses on the investigation of the role of ABCs/DN in the pathogenesis of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in humans, as well as the effects that various pharmacological agents may have on these cells. Methods: Samples from patients with active SLE will be used to enumerate and immunophenotype - via flow cytometry - the ABCs/DN found in the peripheral blood of the patients. Transcriptomic analysis and functional assays for the cells, both before and after in vitro pharmacological treatments, will also be performed. Anticipated benefits: The results of the study are expected to allow characterization of the pathogenetic role of ABCs/DN in SLE and could probably contribute, following careful association with the clinical state of the patients, towards the discovery and validation of novel prognostic and diagnostic markers of disease.

Screening for cognitive impairment in systemic lupus erythematosus: Application of the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) in a Greek patient sample.

BACKGROUND: Cognitive impairment (CI) is one of the most frequent neuropsychiatric manifestations of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Given that extensive neuropsychological testing is not always feasible in routine clinical practice, brief cognitive screening tools are desirable. The aim of this study was to evaluate the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) as a screening tool for CI in SLE. METHODS: Consecutive SLE patients followed at a single centre were evaluated using MoCA and an extensive neuropsychological test battery (NPT), including the Digits Forward and Digits Backwards, Rey Auditory Verbal Learning Memory Test, Trail Making Test, Stroop Colour-Word Test, Semantic and Phonetic Verbal Fluency tests and a 25-problem version of the General Adult Mental Ability test. The criterion validity of MoCA was assessed through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses using three different case definitions: i) against normative population data, ii) and iii) against average performance of a comparison group of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients, to adjust for possible confounding effects of chronic illness and inflammatory processes on cognitive performance. The effect of patient-related (age, years of education, anxiety, depression, fatigue and pain) and disease-related (activity, damage, age at diagnosis, disease duration, use of glucocorticoid, psychotropic and pain medication) parameters on the MoCA was examined. RESULTS: A total of 71 SLE patients were evaluated. MoCA significantly correlated with all NPT scores and was affected by education level (p < 0.001), but not by other demographic or clinical variables. The optimal cutoff for detecting CI, as defined on the basis of normative population data, was 23/30 points, demonstrating 73% sensitivity and 75% specificity. A cutoff of 22/30 points, using neuropsychological profiles of the RA group as inflammatory disease controls, exhibited higher sensitivity (100%, based on both definitions) and specificity (87% and 90%, depending on the definition). The standard cutoff of 26/30 points displayed excellent sensitivity (91-100%) with significant expenses in specificity (43-45%). CONCLUSION: The MoCA is an easily applied tool, which appears to be reliable for identifying CI in SLE patients. The standard cutoff score (26/30) ensures excellent sensitivity while lower cutoff scores (22-23/30) may, also, provide higher specificity.

High Comorbidity Burden in Patients with SLE: Data from the Community-Based Lupus Registry of Crete.

Comorbidities and multimorbidity, often complicating the disease course of patients with chronic inflammatory rheumatic diseases, may be influenced by disease-intrinsic and extrinsic determinants including regional and social factors. We analyzed the frequency and co-segregation of self-reported comorbid diseases in a community-based Mediterranean registry of patients (n = 399) with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Predictors for multimorbidity were identified by multivariable logistic regression, strongly-associated pairs of comorbidities by the Cramer's V-statistic, and comorbidities clusters by hierarchical agglomerative clustering. Among the most prevalent comorbidities were thyroid (45.6%) and metabolic disorders (hypertension: 24.6%, dyslipidemia: 33.3%, obesity: 35.3%), followed by osteoporosis (22.3%), cardiovascular (20.8%), and allergic (20.6%) disorders. Mental comorbidities were also common, particularly depression (26.7%) and generalized anxiety disorder (10.7%). Notably, 51.0% of patients had ≥3 physical and 33.1% had ≥2 mental comorbidities, with a large fraction (n = 86) displaying multimorbidity from both domains. Sociodemographic (education level, marital status) and clinical (disease severity, neurological involvement) were independently associated with physical or mental comorbidity. Patients were grouped into five distinct clusters of variably prevalent comorbid diseases from different organs and domains, which correlated with SLE severity patterns. Conclusively, our results suggest a high multimorbidity burden in patients with SLE at the community, advocating for integrated care to optimize outcomes.

Lupus or not? SLE Risk Probability Index (SLERPI): a simple, clinician-friendly machine learning-based model to assist the diagnosis of systemic lupus erythematosus.

OBJECTIVES: Diagnostic reasoning in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is a complex process reflecting the probability of disease at a given timepoint against competing diagnoses. We applied machine learning in well-characterised patient data sets to develop an algorithm that can aid SLE diagnosis. METHODS: From a discovery cohort of randomly selected 802 adults with SLE or control rheumatologic diseases, clinically selected panels of deconvoluted classification criteria and non-criteria features were analysed. Feature selection and model construction were done with Random Forests and Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator-logistic regression (LASSO-LR). The best model in 10-fold cross-validation was tested in a validation cohort (512 SLE, 143 disease controls). RESULTS: A novel LASSO-LR model had the best performance and included 14 variably weighed features with thrombocytopenia/haemolytic anaemia, malar/maculopapular rash, proteinuria, low C3 and C4, antinuclear antibodies (ANA) and immunologic disorder being the strongest SLE predictors. Our model produced SLE risk probabilities (depending on the combination of features) correlating positively with disease severity and organ damage, and allowing the unbiased classification of a validation cohort into diagnostic certainty levels (unlikely, possible, likely, definitive SLE) based on the likelihood of SLE against other diagnoses. Operating the model as binary (lupus/not-lupus), we noted excellent accuracy (94.8%) for identifying SLE, and high sensitivity for early disease (93.8%), nephritis (97.9%), neuropsychiatric (91.8%) and severe lupus requiring immunosuppressives/biologics (96.4%). This was converted into a scoring system, whereby a score >7 has 94.2% accuracy. CONCLUSIONS: We have developed and validated an accurate, clinician-friendly algorithm based on classical disease features for early SLE diagnosis and treatment to improve patient outcomes.

Comparable or higher prevalence of comorbidities in antiphospholipid syndrome vs rheumatoid arthritis: a multicenter, case-control study.

OBJECTIVES: Evidence on comorbidity prevalence in antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) and its difference from high comorbidity burden rheumatic diseases is limited. Herein, we compare multiple comorbidities between APS and RA. METHODS: A total of 326 patients from the Greek APS registry [237 women, mean age 48.7 (13.4) years, 161 primary APS (PAPS), 165 SLE-APS] were age/sex matched (1:2 ratio) with 652 patients from a Greek multicentre RA cohort of 3115 patients. Prevalence of cardiovascular (CV) risk factors, stroke, coronary artery disease (CAD), osteoporosis, diabetes mellitus (DM), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), depression and neoplasms were compared between APS and RA patients using multivariate regression analysis. RESULTS: Ηyperlipidemia and obesity (ΒΜΙ ≥ 30 kg/m2) were comparable while hypertension, smoking, stroke and CAD were more prevalent in APS compared with RA patients. Osteoporosis and depression were more frequent in APS, while DM, COPD and neoplasms did not differ between the two groups. Comparison of APS subgroups to 1:2 matched RA patients revealed that smoking and stroke were more prevalent in both PAPS and SLE-APS vs RA. Hypertension, CAD and osteoporosis were more frequent only in SLE-APS vs RA, whereas DM was less prevalent in PAPS vs RA. Hyperlipidaemia was independently associated with CV events (combined stroke and CAD) in PAPS and SLE-APS, while CS duration was associated with osteoporosis in SLE-APS. CONCLUSION: Comorbidity burden in APS (PAPS and SLE-APS) is comparable or higher than that in RA, entailing a high level of diligence for CV risk prevention, awareness for depression and CS exposure minimization.

An Update on the Diagnosis and Management of Lupus Nephritis.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Update on the diagnosis, treatment, and monitoring of lupus nephritis. RECENT FINDINGS: The recent criteria enable the earlier classification of lupus nephritis based on kidney biopsy and compatible serology. Treatment of active nephritis includes low-dose intravenous cyclophosphamide or mycophenolate, followed by maintenance immunosuppression. Recent trials have suggested superiority of regimens combining mycophenolate with either calcineurin inhibitor or belimumab, although their long-term benefit/risk ratio has not been determined. Encouraging results with novel anti-CD20 antibodies confirm the effectiveness of B cell depletion. Achievement of low-grade proteinuria (< 700-800 mg/24 h) at 12-month post-induction is linked to favorable long-term outcomes and could be considered in a treat-to-target strategy. Also, repeat kidney biopsy can guide the duration of maintenance immunosuppression. Lupus nephritis has increased cardiovascular disease burden necessitating risk-reduction strategies. An expanding spectrum of therapies coupled with ongoing basic/translational research can lead to individualized medical care and improved outcomes in lupus nephritis.

Per-protocol repeat kidney biopsy portends relapse and long-term outcome in incident cases of proliferative lupus nephritis.

OBJECTIVES: In patients with LN, clinical and histological responses to treatment have been shown to be discordant. We investigated whether per-protocol repeat kidney biopsies are predictive of LN relapses and long-term renal function impairment. METHODS: Forty-two patients with incident biopsy-proven active proliferative (class III/IV±V) LN from the database of the UCLouvain were included in this retrospective study. Per-protocol repeat biopsies were performed after a median [interquartile range (IQR)] time of 24.3 (21.3-26.2) months. The National Institutes of Health activity index (AI) and chronicity index (CI) scores were assessed in all biopsies. RESULTS: Despite a moderate correlation between urinary protein/creatinine ratios (UPCR) and AI scores at repeat biopsy (r = 0.48; P = 0.001), 10 patients (23.8%) with UPCR < 1.0 g/g still had a high degree of histological activity (AI > 3). High AI scores (continuous) in repeat biopsies were associated with an increased probability and/or shorter time to renal relapse (n = 11) following the repeat biopsy [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.2, 95% CI: 1.1, 1.3; P = 0.007], independently of proteinuria levels. High CI scores (continuous) in repeat biopsies were associated with a sustained increase in serum creatinine levels corresponding to ≥120% of the baseline value (HR = 1.8, 95% CI: 1.1, 2.9; P = 0.016) through a median (IQR) follow-up time of 131.5 (73.8-178.2) months, being also the case for acute tubulointerstitial inflammation and interstitial fibrosis/tubular atrophy in repeat but not baseline biopsies. CONCLUSION: Our results highlight the usefulness of per-protocol repeat biopsies, herein performed after a median time of 24 months from baseline, as an integral part of the treatment evaluation, also in patients showing adequate clinical response.

Development and Implementation of a Pilot Registry for Monitoring the Efficacy and Safety of Novel Therapies in Patients with Systemic Lupus Erythematosus.

The therapeutic armamentarium in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) is expanding with the introduction of novel biologic and small-molecule agents. Complementary to randomized controlled trials, registry-based studies are advantageous due to the inclusion of a wider range of patients from daily practice and the potential for long-term monitoring of the efficacy and safety of therapies. Moreover, data from registries can be used to identify disease phenotypes that best respond to biologic agents, and to correlate clinical response with parameters such as co-administered therapies and comorbidities. In this project, we will use the configuration of the Hellenic Registry of Biologic Therapies for inflammatory arthritides in order to design a dedicated SLE module with variables pertaining to global and organ-specific disease activity, severity, flares, organ damage/outcome, comorbidities and adverse events. The second stage will involve the pilot implementation of this platform for the multicentric registration of SLE patients who are treated with belimumab. The significance lies in the development of a structured registry that enables the assessment of the disease burden and the long-term efficacy and safety of existing and future biological agents in SLE. Piloting the registry can serve as a basis for establishing nationwide collaborative efforts.

Lymphopenia as a risk factor for neurologic involvement and organ damage accrual in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus: A multi-center observational study.

OBJECTIVE: Detailed analysis of hematological manifestations (HM) in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) are limited and their clinical impact on disease remain obscure. Here, we aimed to decipher factors associated with different hematological abnormalities in SLE patients and to assess their impact on disease related outcomes. METHODS: A dataset (GIPT) originating from SLE patients of six European tertiary centers was assessed. Six-monthly visits of each patient for at least 2 years were registered. The association between hematologic manifestations (HM; per ACR-1997criteria) and clinical/serologic variables, as well as the impact of HM on disease related outcomes (damage, infection and hemorrhage) were explored. Scores on the Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index 2000(SLEDAI2K), the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC)/American College of Rheumatology (ACR) Damage Index (SDI) and events for any infection and hemorrhage were recorded. Results were compared with a cross-sectional, well-characterized SLE dataset from Sweden. Descriptive statistics, the generalized estimating equations (GEE), general linear models (GLM), Cox regression models were applied. RESULTS: We monitored 1425 longitudinal visits in 286 SLE patients with HM (GIPT dataset: 88% female, 95% Caucasian, 68% dsDNA positive). Thrombocytopenia (regression coefficient [95% confidence interval] 1.86[1.1-3.13]) and neurologic involvement (ACR-8) (2.1[1.10-3.89]) were associated with lymphopenia (<1000/mm3); the latter was an independent predictor of organ damage accrual (1.68[1.2-2.62]). These associations were confirmed in an independent dataset of 1348 SLE patients (86% female, 93% Caucasian, 61% dsDNA positive) in Sweden.Severe lymphopenia (<500/mm3) and severe thrombocytopenia (<20 K/mm3) were associated with increased risk for infection (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval] 2.56[1.23-5.31]) and hemorrhage (4.38[2.10-11.1]), respectively, independent of the effect of other predictors. CONCLUSION: Lymphopenia in SLE is independently associated with neurologic involvement and organ damage accrual, and thus, may be considered as a marker of severe/progressive disease.

In an early SLE cohort the ACR-1997, SLICC-2012 and EULAR/ACR-2019 criteria classify non-overlapping groups of patients: use of all three criteria ensures optimal capture for clinical studies while their modification earlier classification and treatment.

OBJECTIVES: Classification criteria are biased towards classifying long-standing disease. We compared the European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR)/American College of Rheumatology (ACR)-2019, Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC)-2012 and ACR-1997 criteria in an early (median 48 months) systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) cohort. METHODS: Patients diagnosed with SLE (n=690) or control diseases (n=401). Sensitivity, specificity of the criteria and time-to-classification were calculated. Modified classification algorithms were derived from a random 80% and validated in the remaining 20% of the dataset running multiple iterations. RESULTS: At last assessment, sensitivities of ACR-1997, SLICC-2012 and EULAR/ACR-2019 criteria were 85.7%, 91.3% and 88.6%, with specificities 93.0%, 93.8% and 97.3%, respectively. Both SLICC and EULAR/ACR enabled earlier classification. Only 76.7% of patients with SLE met all three criteria suggesting non-overlapping groups. Notably, unclassified patients had high prevalence of British Isles Lupus Assessment Group moderate/severe manifestations (43.3%-60%) and SLICC/ACR organ damage (30%-50%). At diagnosis, criteria missed 25.6%-30.5% of patients. Modification of EULAR/ACR and SLICC algorithms to include hypocomplementaemia and/or positive anti-phospholipid antibodies as alternative entry criterion, and/or allow classification with fewer clinical criteria from multiple organs, increased their sensitivity at diagnosis (median 82.0% and 86.2%) and overall (93.7% and 97.1%) with modest decreases in specificity. Importantly, patients who were still missed by the modified criteria had lower incidence of major organ involvement, use of immunosuppressive/biological therapies and organ damage. CONCLUSIONS: The SLICC and EULAR/ACR are more sensitive than the ACR and the EULAR/ACR criteria have superior specificity in early SLE, although patients with significant disease can be missed. Combination and/or modification of the classification algorithms may enhance their sensitivity, allowing earlier classification and treatment of more patients with high disease burden.

Suspected systemic rheumatic diseases in patients presenting with cytopenias.

Cytopenias may herald or concur with the onset of various systemic rheumatic diseases. Accordingly, patients with reduced blood cell counts are often referred for possible underlying autoimmune disease. Initial evaluation aims to exclude nonrheumatic causes such as drug toxicity, infections, or hematological/myelopoiesis disorders. Patient interview and physical examination are critical to unravel features related to or suggestive of rheumatic disease. Based on the clinical scenario, targeted immunological testing may provide additional diagnostic insights. Yet, not all patients may present with full-fledged, criteria-classified disease at early stages. Accordingly, physicians should have a high index of suspicion for individuals who present with a combination of immune/inflammatory cytopenia(s) and relevant clinical (e.g., synovitis) and/or serological manifestations, even if these are few in number or nonspecific (e.g., ANA). Ongoing studies in preclinical or early autoimmunity cohorts could lead to the discovery of diagnostic biomarkers applicable also to patients with cytopenias and suspected rheumatic disease.

Cytokine targets in lupus nephritis: Current and future prospects.

Despite advancements in the care of lupus nephritis, a considerable proportion of patients may respond poorly or flare while on conventional immunosuppressive agents. Studies in murine and human lupus have illustrated a pathogenic role for several cytokines by enhancing T- and B-cell activation, autoantibodies production and affecting the function of kidney resident cells, therefore supporting their potential therapeutic targeting. To this end, there is limited post-hoc randomized evidence to suggest beneficial effect of belimumab, administered on top of standard-of-care, during maintenance therapy in lupus nephritis. Type I interferon receptor blockade has yielded promising results in preliminary SLE trials yet data on renal activity are unavailable. Conversely, targeting interleukin-6 and interferon-γ both failed to demonstrate a significant renal effect. For several other targets, preclinical data are encouraging but will require confirmation. We envision that high-throughput technologies will enable accurate patient stratification, thus offering the opportunity for personalized implementation of cytokine-targeting therapies.

Low disease activity-irrespective of serologic status at baseline-associated with reduction of corticosteroid dose and number of flares in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus treated with belimumab: A real-life observational study.

BACKGROUND: Low disease activity is a validated target of current systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) therapy. The aim of this study was to assess the ability of belimumab to achieve low disease activity states in real-life settings. METHODS: Multicentre prospective observational study of consecutive SLE patients receiving belimumab for at least 3 months, due to active disease refractory to at least one conventional immunosuppressant. Disease activity, including the recently defined lupus low disease activity state (LLDAS) and remission (clinical SLEDAI-2K = 0), accrual of organ damage, flares and side effects were documented. RESULTS: Ninety-one patients were included [94.5% women, mean (SD) age 45.9 (12.5) years]. Most frequent manifestations were arthritis (76.7%), rash (72.5%), serologic activity (low C3/C4 and/or high anti-dsDNA; 54.9%), hair loss (47.2%) and mucosal ulcers (27.5%). Median (range) duration of treatment was 10.5 (3.0-42.1) months. Belimumab significantly decreased average SLEDAI-2K, physician global assessment (PGA) and daily prednisone dose over time, as early as 3 months after initiation, with over 20% of patients discontinuing corticosteroids. Although reduction in clinical (i.e., excluding serology) SLEDAI-2K was more pronounced in patients who were serologically active (from 8 to 1.5 at 12 months) as compared to serologically inactive (from 6 to 4) at baseline, attainment of LLDAS did not differ between the two groups and was reached by more than 40% of completer patients after 9-12 months. In addition, the number of flares and severe flares was reduced by 62% and 50%, respectively, during the first 12 months of treatment. Twenty patients (22.0%) discontinued treatment due to inadequate response and two due to side effects potentially related to the drug. CONCLUSIONS: In real-life, belimumab is efficacious in achieving low disease activity in over 40% of unselected patients, in combination with reduction of corticosteroid dosage and number of flares. Both serologically active and inactive patients respond to the drug.

Comparative analysis of the sensitivity and specificity of the classification criteria and correlation with prognosis of disease in patients with Systemic Lupus Erythematosus.

BACKGROUND: Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is a chronic autoimmune disease characterized by significant clinical heterogeneity with early diagnosis being a major challenge, complicated by the absence of formal diagnostic criteria. Instead, classification criteria have been developed to enable the homogenous inclusion of patients in clinical trials, with the most commonly used those of the American College of Rheumatology (ACR 1997) and the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics Classification Criteria (SLICC 2012). These criteria are widely used in clinical practice as diagnostic tools, although they fail to diagnose up to 20% of patients with SLE or may delay diagnosis. These restrictions have led to the recent (2018) introduction of new classification criteria jointly by the European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) and ACR. AIMS OF THE STUDY: We will compare the sensitivity and specificity of the earlier and new classification criteria after a systematic analysis (retrospective study) of a group of SLE patients. In addition, we will examine which set of criteria permits the earliest classification of the disease in a prospective cohort of patients with undifferentiated connective tissue disease (UCTD). The prognostic impact (permanent organ damage) of the classification of SLE patients with the three sets of criteria will also be examined. METHODS: Data from the existing Cretan lupus registry will be used to retrospectively include consecutively registered patients aged ≥15 years diagnosed with SLE during 01/2005-12/2016 by an expert physician and followed-up for at least 6 months. All sets of criteria (ACR 1997, SLICC 2012, EULAR/ACR 2018) will be tested at the time of physician-based diagnosis and also at last follow-up. A prospective study arm will include cases with a diagnosis of UCTD and will be followed-up in the outpatient clinic for 3-5 years. ANTICIPATED BENEFITS: This is the first study to include the application of the new criteria (EULAR/ACR 2018) to a group of SLE patients. Determining their diagnostic value in comparison to existing criteria or diagnosis by a specialist will provide important information both for the value of their application at the level of clinical studies and for their use in clinical practice as diagnostic criteria.

Epidemiology and burden of systemic lupus erythematosus in a Southern European population: data from the community-based lupus registry of Crete, Greece.

OBJECTIVES: Several population-based studies on systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) have been reported, yet community-based, individual-case validated, comprehensive reports are missing. We studied the SLE epidemiology and burden on the island of Crete during 1999-2013. METHODS: Multisource case-finding included patients ≥15 years old. Cases were ascertained by the ACR 1997, SLICC 2012 criteria and rheumatologist diagnosis, and validated through synthesis of medical charts, administrative and patient-generated data. RESULTS: Overall age-adjusted/sex-adjusted incidence was 7.4 (95% CI 6.8 to 7.9) per 100 000 persons/year, with stabilising trends in women but increasing in men, and average (±SD) age of diagnosis at 43 (±15) years. Adjusted and crude prevalence (December 2013) was 123.4 (113.9 to 132.9) and 143 (133 to 154)/105 (165/105 in urban vs 123/105 in rural regions, p<0.001), respectively. Age-adjusted/sex-adjusted nephritis incidence was 0.6 (0.4 to 0.8) with stable trends, whereas that of neuropsychiatric SLE was 0.5 (0.4 to 0.7) per 100 000 persons/year and increasing. Although half of prevalent cases had mild manifestations, 30.5% developed organ damage after 7.2 (±6.6) years of disease duration, with the neuropsychiatric domain most frequently afflicted, and 4.4% of patients with nephritis developed end-stage renal disease. The ACR 1997 and SLICC 2012 classification criteria showed high concordance (87%), yet physician-based diagnosis occurred earlier than criteria-based in about 20% of cases. CONCLUSIONS: By the use of a comprehensive methodology, we describe the full spectrum of SLE from the community to tertiary care, with almost half of the cases having mild disease, yet with significant damage accrual. SLE is not rare, affects predominantly middle-aged women and is increasingly recognised in men. Neuropsychiatric disease is an emerging frontier in lupus prevention and care.

Flares in systemic lupus erythematosus: diagnosis, risk factors and preventive strategies.

Despite advances in the treatment, patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) often experience disease exacerbations (flares) of varying severity. Their diagnosis is primarily made on clinical grounds after exclusion of other diseases or disturbances, primarily infections, and can be assisted by the use of validated clinical indices. Serological tests such as serum complement fractions and anti-dsDNA autoantibodies, are helpful in monitoring SLE activity, but they lack high diagnostic accuracy. Flares are more frequent in patients with persistent immunological and clinical activity, and have been described as significant risk factor for development of irreversible end-organ damage. Accordingly, prevention of flares has been recognized as a distinct therapeutic target in SLE and involves adequate control of disease activity, use of hydroxychloroquine, maintaining immunosuppressive or biologic therapy for several years, and avoiding non-compliance issues. The future holds promise for the discovery of biomarkers that will accurately predict or diagnose SLE flares, thus allowing for the implementation of patient-tailored preventive strategies.