ABSTRACT
Although not without subjectivity, the cranial trait scoring method is an easy visual method routinely used by forensic anthropologists in sex estimation. The revision presented by Walker in 2008 has introduced predictive models with good accuracies in the original populations. However, such models may lead to unsatisfactory performances when applied to populations that are different from the original. Therefore, this study aimed to test the sex predictive equations reported by Walker on a contemporary Italian population (177 individuals) in order to evaluate the reliability of the method and to identify potential sexual dimorphic differences between American and Italian individuals. In order to provide new reference data to be used by forensic experts dealing with human remains of modern/contemporary individuals from this geographical area, we designed logistic regression models specific to our population, whose accuracy was evaluated on a validation sample from the same population. In particular, we fitted logistic regression models for all possible combinations of the five cranial morphological traits (i.e., nuchal crest, mastoid process, orbital margin, glabella, and mental eminence). This approach provided a comprehensive set of population-specific equations that can be used in forensic contexts where crania might be retrieved with severe taphonomic damages, thus limiting the application of the method only to a few morphological features. The results proved once again that the effects of secular changes and biogeographic ancestry on sexual dimorphism of cranial morphological traits are remarkable, as highlighted by the low accuracy (from 56% to 78%) of the six Walker's equations when applied to our female sample. Among our fitted models, the one including the glabella and mastoid process was the most accurate since these features are more sexually dimorphic in our population. Finally, our models proved to have high predictive performances in both training and validation samples, with accuracy percentages up to 91.7% for Italian females, which represents a significant success in minimizing the potential misclassifications in real forensic scenarios.
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES: The anatomical features of the atlanto-occipital joint can be potentially useful in re-associating or excluding crania to atlases in commingled remains. This study investigated whether linear measurements and the 3-dimensional (3D) surface of occipital condyles and articular facets of atlases can represent valid insights for this purpose. METHODS: The variations among eight corresponding linear distances were analyzed in a sample of 150 individuals through six supervised machine learning techniques attempting to develop classifiers able to identify elements belonging to the same individual. Furthermore, a 3D analysis was conducted on the articular surfaces through superimpositions of 3D models of corresponding and non-corresponding crania and atlases obtained by using respectively stereophotogrammetry and laser scanning. This analysis investigated differences in terms of point-to-point distances (Root Mean Square, RMS) of superimposed 3D surfaces. RESULTS: None of the six machine learning techniques were able to correctly detect a satisfying percentage of correspondent pairs in the overall sample by using the linear variables. The 3D analysis of the articular surfaces found RMS values over 0.53 mm only for superimposed non-corresponding surfaces, which sets a threshold value to identify 32% of incorrect pairs. DISCUSSION: The re-association of cranium to atlas proved to be challenging and hardly possible when considering only metric variables. However, the 3D geometry of the articular surfaces represents a valid variable for this purpose and 3D analyses pave the way for an initial exclusion of incorrect re-associations, thus should not be considered as a re-association method per se, but as an exclusionary screening technique.