The Impact of Alternate Methodological and Structural Assumptions on Results of Cost-effectiveness Analysis: Empirical Evidence using Three Indian Economic Evaluations.

BACKGROUND: Despite advancement in methods and application of economic evaluations (EEs), there are several uncertainties. OBJECTIVES: To assess the impact of alternate methodological and structural assumptions for four key principles of EE, on the results of cost-effectiveness analysis. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Three previously published model-based EEs were used: (1) Integrated Management of Neonatal and Childhood Illnesses (IMNCIs) intervention; (2) intervention for multiple myeloma, and (3) safety-engineered syringes (SES) intervention. A series of empirical analyses was undertaken to assess the impact of alternate assumptions for discount-rate, time-horizon, study perspective, and health outcome measure, on incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), and interpretation of cost-effectiveness. RESULTS: Increasing discount rate resulted in an increase in ICERs, for all three case-studies; however, there was no change in the conclusions. Using shorter time-horizons resulted in a significant increase in ICERs, the multiple myeloma intervention remained cost-ineffective, SES intervention became cost-ineffective, whereas IMNCI intervention remained cost-effective, despite a three-fold increase in ICER. On using disability adjusted life years instead of quality adjusted life years, ICERs increased to 0.04, 2 and 4 times for SES, IMNCI and multiple myeloma interventions, respectively. On analyzing results from a societal perspective, a decline in ICERs was observed. The decline was significant for IMNCI where the intervention turned dominant/cost-saving. In the other two case-studies decline in ICERs was modest, 32% for multiple myeloma, and 4% for SES. CONCLUSION: We observed a significant impact of using alternate assumptions on ICERs which can potentially impact resource-allocation decisions. Our findings provide strong argument in favor of standardization of processes and development of country-specific guidelines for conduct of EE.

Normative data for insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) in healthy children and adolescents from India.

BACKGROUND: Serum IGF-1 is an important biochemical tool to diagnose and monitor GH-related disorders. However, ethnic-specific Indian data following consensus criteria for the establishment of normative data, are not available. Our objective was to generate chronological age (CA)-, bone age (BA)- and Tanner stage-specific normative data for IGF-1 in healthy Indian children and adolescents. METHODS: A cross-sectional epidemiological study was conducted in schools and the community, which enrolled apparently healthy children and adolescents with robust exclusion criteria. The outcome measure was serum IGF-1 assessed using an electro-chemiluminescence immunoassay (ECLIA). The 2.5th, 5th, 10th, 25th, 50th (median), 75th, 90th, 95th, and 97.5th centiles for IGF-1 were estimated using generalized additive models. RESULTS: We recruited 2226 apparently healthy participants and following exclusion, 1948 (1006 boys, 942 girls) were included in the final analysis. Girls had median IGF-1 peak at CA of 13 years (321.7 ng/mL), BA of 14 years (350.2 ng/mL) and Tanner stage IV (345 ng/mL), while boys had median IGF-1 peak at CA of 15 years (318.9 ng/mL) BA of 15 years (340.6 ng/mL) and Tanner stage III (304.8 ng/mL). Girls had earlier rise, peak and higher IGF-1 values. The reference interval (2.5th-97.5th percentile) was broader during peri-pubertal ages, indicating a higher physiological variability. CONCLUSION: This study provides ethnicity-specific normative data on serum IGF-1 and will improve the diagnostic utility of IGF-1 in the evaluation and management of growth disorders in Indian children and adolescents.

Association of Child Growth Failure Indicators With Household Sanitation Practices in India (1998-2021): Spatiotemporal Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: Undernutrition among children younger than 5 years is a subtle indicator of a country's health and economic status. Despite substantial macroeconomic progress in India, undernutrition remains a significant burden with geographical variations, compounded by poor access to water, sanitation, and hygiene services. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to explore the spatial trends of child growth failure (CGF) indicators and their association with household sanitation practices in India. METHODS: We used data from the Indian Demographic and Health Surveys spanning 1998-2021. District-level CGF indicators (stunting, wasting, and underweight) were cross-referenced with sanitation and sociodemographic characteristics. Global Moran I and Local Indicator of Spatial Association were used to detect spatial clustering of the indicators. Spatial regression models were used to evaluate the significant determinants of CGF indicators. RESULTS: Our study showed a decreasing trend in stunting (44.9%-38.4%) and underweight (46.7%-35.7%) but an increasing prevalence of wasting (15.7%-21.0%) over 15 years. The positive values of Moran I between 1998 and 2021 indicate the presence of spatial autocorrelation. Geographic clustering was consistently observed in the states of Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Odisha, Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, West Bengal, Rajasthan, Bihar, and Gujarat. Improved sanitation facilities, a higher wealth index, and advanced maternal education status showed a significant association in reducing stunting. Relative risk maps identified hotspots of CGF health outcomes, which could be targeted for future interventions. CONCLUSIONS: Despite numerous policies and programs, malnutrition remains a concern. Its multifaceted causes demand coordinated and sustained interventions that go above and beyond the usual. Identifying hotspot locations will aid in developing control methods for achieving objectives in target areas.

Prevalence and sociodemographic determinants of common mental disorders (CMDs) symptoms in a rural adult population of Haryana, North India.

Objectives: Common mental disorders (CMDs), including depression, anxiety, and somatoform disorders, affect all stages of life and impact individuals, families, and communities. This study aimed to determine the magnitude of CMDs and their sociodemographic determinants in the adult population of a rural block in North India. Material and Methods: A cross-sectional, quantitative, community-based study was conducted among adult residents of a rural block in Haryana, North India, using a multistage random sampling technique. The Hindi version of the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12), a well-validated tool, was used to screen participants for CMDs. Scores of 4 or above denoted the presence of CMDs. Bivariate analyses were performed to determine the associations between CMDs and sociodemographic characteristics. Results: Of the 180 residents selected for the study, most were women (60.0%) and aged between 31 and 50 years (52.3%). The prevalence of CMDs symptoms in the study population was 20.0%. The presence of CMDs symptoms was significantly higher among those who were aged 60 years or older [OR=12.33, 95% CI 3.21-47.38], widowed, divorced or separated [OR=7.50, 95% CI 1.09-51.52], illiterate [OR= 6.25, 95% CI 2.84-13.77], had monthly family income below 10,000 INR [OR=3.33, 95% CI 1.54-7.20], had any chronic physical illness [OR=8.28, 95% CI 3.70-18.56] and had a family history of any psychiatric illness [OR=5.56, 95% CI 1.52-19.42]. Conclusion: The burden of CMDs was quite high among adults in rural North India. The presence of CMDs was closely associated with sociodemographic characteristics. Primary care and community-based settings need to screen for, diagnose, and manage CMDs to address this growing problem.

A digital health intervention to support patients with chronic pain during prescription opioid tapering: a pilot randomised controlled trial.

Introduction: Recent changes in opioid prescribing guidelines have led to an increasing number of patients with chronic pain being recommended to taper. However, opioid tapering can be challenging, and many patients require support. Objectives: We evaluated the feasibility, acceptability, and potential efficacy of a codesigned digital health intervention to support patients with chronic pain during voluntary prescription opioid tapering. Methods: In a pilot randomised controlled trial, participants received a psychoeducational video and 28 days of text messages (2 SMS/day) in addition to their usual care (intervention) or usual care alone (control). The feasibility, acceptability, and potential efficacy of the intervention were evaluated. The primary outcome was opioid tapering self-efficacy. Secondary outcomes were pain intensity and interference, anxiety and depression symptom severity, pain catastrophising, and pain self-efficacy. Results: Of 28 randomised participants, 26 completed the study (13 per group). Text message delivery was high (99.2%), but fidelity of video delivery was low (57.1%). Most participants rated the messages as useful, supportive, encouraging, and engaging; 78.5% would recommend the intervention to others; and 64.2% desired a longer intervention period. Tapering self-efficacy (Cohen d = 0.74) and pain self-efficacy (d = 0.41) were higher, and pain intensity (d = 0.65) and affective interference (d = 0.45) were lower in the intervention group at week 4. Conclusion: First evidence supports the feasibility, acceptability, and potentially efficacy of a psychoeducational video and SMS text messaging intervention to support patients with chronic pain during voluntary prescription opioid tapering. Definitive trials with longer intervention duration are warranted.

Indian Model of Integrated Healthcare (IMIH): a conceptual framework for a coordinated referral system in resource-constrained settings.

INTRODUCTION: With the escalating burden of chronic disease and multimorbidity in India, owing to its ageing population and overwhelming health needs, the Indian Health care delivery System (HDS) is under constant pressure due to rising public expectations and ambitious new health goals. The three tired HDS should work in coherence to ensure continuity of care, which needs a coordinated referral system. This calls for optimising health care through Integrated care (IC). The existing IC models have been primarily developed and adopted in High-Income Countries. The present study attempts to review the applicability of existing IC models and frame a customised model for resource-constrained settings. METHODS: A two-stage methodology was used. Firstly, a narrative literature review was done to identify gaps in existing IC models, as per the World Health Organization framework approach. The literature search was done from electronic journal article databases, and relevant literature that reported conceptual and theoretical concepts of IC. Secondly, we conceptualised an IC concept according to India's existing HDS, validated by multiple rounds of brainstorming among co-authors. Further senior co-authors independently reviewed the conceptualised IC model as per national relevance. RESULTS: Existing IC models were categorised as individual, group and disease-specific, and population-based models. The limitations of having prolonged delivery time, focusing only on chronic diseases and being economically expensive to implement, along with requirement of completely restructuring and reorganising the existing HDS makes the adoption of existing IC models not feasible for India. The Indian Model of Integrated Healthcare (IMIH) model proposes three levels of integration: Macro, Meso, and Micro levels, using the existing HDS. The core components include a Central Gateway Control Room, using existing digital platforms at macro levels, a bucket overflow model at the meso level, a Triple-layered Concentric Circle outpatient department (OPD) design, and a three-door OPD concept at the micro level. CONCLUSION: IMIH offers features that consider resource constraints and local context of LMICs while being economically viable. It envisages a step toward UHC by optimising existing resources and ensuring a continuum of care. However, health being a state subject, various socio-political and legal/administrative issues warrant further discussion before implementation.

Outbreak investigation of acute febrile illness from the Himalayan foothills: Solving the puzzle of fever.

In September 2022, Panchkula Civil Hospital reported an outbreak of acute febrile illness (AFI) in Pinjore, located in the Himalayan foothills, Haryana, North India. There was an upsurge of fever cases. Blood samples were taken from suspected patients (n = 58) with AFI and subjected to serology of dengue, chikungunya, Japanese encephalitis, leptospira and scrub typhus. The samples were also screened for West Nile & Zika virus RNA using real-time PCR. Viral strains were characterized by sequencing. Of the 58 cases of AFI, Dengue could be identified in 45 (77.58%) followed by JE and Chikungunya in 2 cases each (3.44%), respectively. Among Dengue positive cases, 44 had monoinfection (97.77%) and 1 patient had dengue and JE. None were positive for Zika, West Nile, Scrub typhus, and Leptospira with the testing protocol. Four patients developed dengue with warning signs, such as abdominal pain in one patient and recurrent vomiting in the remaining three. The dengue serotype could be determined in 17 samples and revealed serotype 2. Molecular evolution analysis based on the complete envelope gene revealed that all DENV-2 strains (n = 13) circulated in the outbreak area belonged to the DENV-2 cosmopoliton genotype. In the early stages of infection, relying only on clinical manifestations is ineffective, so both molecular and serological assays along with clinical diagnosis are noteworthy for determining the aetiology of AFI.

A Novel Potential Treatment for Diabetic Foot Ulcers and Non-Healing Ulcers - Case Series.

INTRODUCTION: Appropriate care and treatment of a wound is the need of the hour whether it is an infected or a non-infected wound. If wound healing is delayed for some reason, it leads to serious complications and further increases the hospital stay and cost of treatment. Herein, we describe a novel antimicrobial wound dressing formulation (VG111), with an objective to generate the preliminary data showing the distinct advantages in various types of wounds. METHOD: This case series involved the treatment of acute cases of wounds or chronic wounds that did not respond well to conventional wound healing treatments with VG111 in patients with different etiologies. Thirteen cases of patients that included patients with diabetes, pressure ulcers, burns, trauma, and others treated with VG111 showed rapid wound healing in all the cases, even obviating the need for a graft when complete skin regeneration occurred RESULT: This was illustrated by clearing of the wound infections, reduction/disappearance of the exudate, appearance of intense granulation, epithelialization, and anti-biofilm activity followed by complete wound closure. This VG111 precludes the need for systemic antimicrobial agents in localized infections and therefore, this single agent is an attempt to address the limitations and the drawbacks of the available products. CONCLUSION: Despite patients belonging to the old age group and having comorbidities like diabetes, still VG111 showed effective rapid wound healing, and that too without any scar formation in hardto-heal, infected, and non-infected wounds

Human Resources for Health in Haryana, India: What can be Done Better?

Introduction: Health systems in developing countries suffers from both input and productivity issues. We examined the status of three domains of human resources for health, i.e., availability and distribution, capacity and productivity, and motivation and job-satisfaction, of the health-care workforce employed in the public health system of Haryana, a North Indian state. Methodology: The primary data were collected from 377 public health facilities and 1749 healthcare providers across 21 districts. The secondary data were obtained from government reports in the public domain. Bivariate and multivariate statistical techniques were used for evaluating district performances, making inter-district comparisons and identifying determinants of motivation and job-satisfaction of the clinical cadres. Results: We found 3.6 core health-care workers (doctors, staff nurses, and auxiliary nurses-midwives) employed in the public health-care system per 10,000 population, ranging from 1.35 in Faridabad district to 6.57 in Panchkula district. Around 78% of the sanctioned positions were occupied. A number of inpatient hospitalizations per doctor/nurses per month were 17 at the community health center level and 29 at the district hospital level; however, significant differences were observed among districts. Motivation levels of community health workers (85%) were higher than clinical workforce (78%), while health system administrators had lowest motivation and job satisfaction levels. Posting at primary healthcare facility, contractual employment, and co-habitation with family at the place of posting were found to be the significant motivating factors. Conclusions: A revamp of governance strategies is required to improve health-care worker availability and equitable distribution in the public health system to address the observed geographic variations. Efforts are also needed to improve the motivation levels of health system administrators, especially in poorly performing districts and reduce the wide gap with better-off districts.

Development of the Indian Reference Case for undertaking economic evaluation for health technology assessment.

Background: Health technology assessment (HTA) is globally recognised as an important tool to guide evidence-based decision-making. However, heterogeneity in methods limits the use of any such evidence. The current research was undertaken to develop a set of standards for conduct of economic evaluations for HTA in India, referred to as the Indian Reference Case. Methods: Development of the reference case comprised of a four-step process: (i) review of existing international HTA guidelines; (ii) systematic review of economic evaluations for three countries to assess adherence with pre-existing country-specific HTA guidelines; (iii) empirical analysis to assess the impact of alternate assumptions for key principles of economic evaluation on the results of cost-effectiveness analysis; (iv) stakeholder consultations to assess appropriateness of the recommendations. Based on the inferences drawn from the first three processes, a preliminary draft of the reference case was developed, which was finalised based on stakeholder consultations. Findings: The Indian Reference Case provides twelve recommendations on eleven key principles of economic evaluation: decision problem, comparator, perspective, source of effectiveness evidence, measure of costs, health outcomes, time-horizon, discounting, heterogeneity, uncertainty analysis and equity analysis, and for presentation of results. The recommendations are user-friendly and have scope to allow for context-specific flexibility. Interpretation: The Indian Reference Case is expected to provide guidance in planning, conducting, and reporting of economic evaluations. It is anticipated that adherence to the Reference Case would increase the quality and policy utilisation of future evaluations. However, with advancement in the field of health economics efforts aimed at refining the Indian Reference Case would be needed. Funding: This research received no specific grant from any funding agency, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors. The research was undertaken as part of doctoral thesis of Sharma D, who received scholarship from the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), New Delhi, India.

Psychological distress and related factors regarding COVID-19 among the ancillary hospital staff: A cross-sectional study.

Background: Healthcare workers (HCWs) are at the front line of the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak response. They have faced great risks to both physical and mental health. We aimed to assess the psychological effect of COVID-19 among ancillary hospital staff. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted among 267 on-duty ancillary hospital staff using a semi-structured questionnaire to assess their psychological status and risk perception. In addition, their knowledge, attitude, and practices (KAP) and risk perception were also assessed. The General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12) was used to screen for psychological distress. Results: Among 267 participants, the mean (±SD) age was 33.5 (7.6) years. The majority knew about the symptoms of COVID-19 (88.4%), droplet spread (99.3%), and the importance of isolation (99.3%). About 35.2% were worried about infecting family members, while 26.2% were worried about colleagues at the frontline. Only 38.9% of them had a good knowledge score. Participants with high school and above education level had significantly good knowledge about COVID-19 (OR = 1.99; 95% CI = 1.17- 3.39) than those with primary school or below. Being female (OR 1.99; 95% CI 1.17-3.39) and working with COVID-19 patients (OR 3.88, 95% CI 1.77-8.47, P = 0.001) was associated with psychological distress. Conclusion: The ancillary hospital staff had insufficient knowledge regarding the risk factors of COVID-19 but possessed positive attitudes and practices. Continued health education and appropriate psychological interventions may improve understanding and reduce psychological distress.

Parents' expectation of antibiotic prescriptions for respiratory infections in children: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Objectives: Despite most childhood infections being self-limiting, children are among the leading consumers of antibiotics. Little is known about parental expectations of antibiotics for childhood infections. A comprehensive systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted to explore the nature and extent of parental expectations of antibiotic prescriptions for children with respiratory infections. Design: Systematic review and meta-analysis. Methods: An extensive literature search using six major scientific databases was conducted for all published articles until 7 December 2022. Primary studies reporting parents' expectations of antibiotics for children with upper respiratory tract infections were included after assessment for quality. Heterogeneity between the studies was assessed using the I2 statistic and publication bias was analyzed using funnel plots and Egger regression tests. The primary outcome was a summary estimate of the percentage of parents who expect antibiotics from their physicians when their child presents with an upper respiratory tract infection. Results: From a total of 4510 studies found in the initial searches, a final pool of 19 eligible studies with 15,664 individuals was included in this meta-analysis. Nine of the 19 studies were from the United States or Saudi Arabia. The pooled prevalence of parental expectations of antibiotics in the population reviewed was 55.78% (95% CI = 44.60-66.41). There was significant heterogeneity between the studies, but funnel plot and meta-regression did not detect any publication bias. Conclusion: More than half of parents expect antibiotics for their children during consultation for upper respiratory tract infections. Such practices may cause undue side effects among children, contribute to the growing burden of antibiotic resistance, and lead to treatment failure for many common infections in the future. To optimize efforts to tackle antimicrobial resistance, shared decision-making and education emphasizing the proper and judicious use of antibiotics are much needed in pediatric healthcare settings. This can also help to manage parents' expectations when seeking antibiotics for their children. Despite pressure from parents, pediatric healthcare providers should continue to advocate for antibiotic use only when warranted and help improve knowledge and awareness amongst parents. Registration: The protocol has been registered with PROSPERO (CRD42022364198).

A digital health intervention to support patients with chronic pain during prescription opioid tapering: a pilot randomised controlled trial.

Introduction: Recent changes in opioid prescribing guidelines have led to an increasing number of patients with chronic pain being recommended to taper. However, opioid tapering can be challenging, and many patients require support. Objectives: We evaluated the feasibility, acceptability, and potential efficacy of a co-designed psycho-educational video and SMS text messaging intervention to support patients with chronic pain during prescription opioid tapering. Methods: A pilot randomised controlled trial was conducted. In addition to their usual care, participants in the intervention group received a psycho-educational video and 28 days of text messages (two SMS/day). The control group received usual care. The feasibility, acceptability, and potential efficacy of the intervention were evaluated. The primary outcome was opioid tapering self-efficacy. Secondary outcomes were pain intensity and interference, anxiety and depression symptom severity, pain catastrophising, and pain self-efficacy. Results: Of 28 randomised participants, 26 completed the study (13 in each group). Text message delivery was 99.2% successful. Most participants rated the messages as useful, supportive, encouraging, and engaging, 78.5% would recommend the intervention to others, and 64% desired a longer intervention period. Tapering self-efficacy (Cohen's d = 0.74) and pain self-efficacy (d = 0.41) were higher and pain intensity (d = 0.65) and affective interference (d = 0.45) lower in the intervention group at week 4. Conclusions: It is feasible, acceptable, and potentially efficacious to support patients with chronic pain during prescription opioid tapering with a psycho-educational video and SMS text messaging intervention. A definitive trial has been initiated to test a 12-week intervention.

Human rabies control in the era of post-COVID-19: a call for action.

Following the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been a sharp increase in rabies cases and deaths. Rabies outbreaks are being reported worldwide. Multiple disruptions in Rabies control occurred during the pandemic, significantly affecting lower-income countries. Countries need to develop specific action plans to become 'rabies free' by 2030.

Oral manifestation of the monkeypox virus: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: Mpox (formerly known as monkeypox) is a global public health concern, given the recent outbreaks in non-endemic countries where little scientific evidence exists on the disease epidemiology. Oral lesions among mpox cases have been poorly reported. Our aim was to estimate the overall prevalence of oral manifestations among patients with mpox globally. Methods: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, an extensive literature search in PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, Embase, Cochrane, and preprint servers (medRxiv, arXiv, bioRxiv, BioRN, ChiRxiv, ChiRN, and SSRN) and assessment of all published articles, conducted across the world, until Nov 15 2022 as per the PROSPERO registration protocol (CRD42022371249), was undertaken. Primary studies (case series, cross-sectional, retrospective, prospective designs) that reported the oral/oropharyngeal symptoms among laboratory-confirmed mpox cases were included. The characteristics of the study, information on the number of cases, and symptomatic status were extracted from the included studies. The quality of the included studies was assessed for bias. Random-effects meta-regression with DerSimonian & Laird estimator, and subgroup analyses were conducted using STATA (v17.0). The degree of funnel plot asymmetry was assessed using Egger's test when at least 10 estimates were available. The heterogeneity between studies was assessed using the I2 statistic. The primary outcome was the pooled prevalence of oral manifestations in the examined population. Findings: 19 studies were included with 4042 laboratory-confirmed patients with mpox for qualitative and quantitative synthesis. The pooled prevalence of oral manifestations in the investigated population was 36.75% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 23.77-50.65). Heterogeneity was found to be high in the current meta-analysis (I2 = 98.24%; p < 0.001). Subgroup analysis revealed a pooled prevalence of 39.96% (95% CI: 21.42-59.91) of sore throat, 24.80% (95% CI: 8.14-46.32) of mouth sore, 18.24% (95% CI: 0.34-52.54) of tonsillitis and 17.99% (95% CI: 15.66-20.43) of mouth rash from the included studies. Interpretation: Oral manifestations are common in patients with mpox, with variations in prevalence across the sites within the oral cavity, and geography of the studies. Healthcare workers should be wary of the oral signs and symptoms of mpox in endemic and high-risk areas. Funding: None.

Potentially Asymptomatic Infection of Monkeypox Virus: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Background: Monkeypox is a global public health concern, given the recent outbreaks in non-endemic countries where little scientific evidence exists on the disease. Specifically, there is a lack of data on asymptomatic monkeypox virus infection. This study aims to evaluate the overall prevalence of asymptomatic monkeypox virus infection. Methods: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we performed an extensive literature search in PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, ProQuest, EMBASE, EBSCOHost, Cochrane, and preprint servers (medRxiv, arXiv, bioRxiv, BioRN, ChiRxiv, ChiRN, and SSRN) and assessed all published articles till September 2022. Primary studies reporting monkeypox infections among asymptomatic participants were included after quality assessment. The characteristics of the study and information on the number of cases and symptomatic status were extracted from the included studies. The heterogeneity between studies was assessed using the I2 statistic. Publication bias was analyzed using funnel plots and Egger regression tests. The primary outcome was the pooled prevalence of asymptomatic infections within the examined population. Results: A total of 16 studies were included for qualitative synthesis, while five studies, including 645 individuals, were included for quantitative synthesis. There was substantial heterogeneity between studies (I2 = 94.86%; p < 0.01), with a pooled percentage of asymptomatic infections in the studied population of 10.2% (95%CI, 2.5−17.9%). Conclusion: This meta-analysis suggests that many people infected with the monkeypox virus are asymptomatic and difficult to detect. Therefore, prompt detection of these cases of monkeypox virus and appropriate subsequent management is of utmost importance to global public health.

Harnessing machine learning models for non-invasive pre-diabetes screening in children and adolescents.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Pre-diabetes has been identified as an intermediate diagnosis and a sign of a relatively high chance of developing diabetes in the future. Diabetes has become one of the most frequent chronic disorders in children and adolescents around the world; therefore, predicting the onset of pre-diabetes allows a person at risk to make efforts to avoid or restrict disease progression. This research aims to create and implement a cross-validated machine learning model that can predict pre-diabetes using non-invasive methods. METHODS: We have analysed the national representative dataset of children and adolescents (5-19 years) to develop a machine learning model for non-invasive pre-diabetes screening. Based on HbA1c levels the data (n = 26,567) was segregated into normal (n = 23,777) and pre-diabetes (n = 2790). We have considered eight features, six hyper-tuned machine learning models and different metrics for model evaluation. The final model was selected based on the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC), Cohen's kappa and cross-validation score. The selected model was integrated into the screening tool for automated pre-diabetes prediction. RESULTS: The XG boost classifier was the best model, including all eight features. The 10-fold cross-validation score was highest for the XG boost model (90.13%) and least for the support vector machine (61.17%). The AUC was highest for RF (0.970), followed by GB (0.968), XGB (0.959), ETC (0.918), DT (0.908), and SVM (0.574) models. The XGB model was used to develop the screening tool. CONCLUSION: We have developed and deployed a machine learning model for automated real-time pre-diabetes screening. The screening tool can be used over computers and can be transformed into software for easy usage. The detection of pre-diabetes in the pediatric age may help avoid its enhancement. Machine learning can also show great competence in determining important features in pre-diabetes.

Trends in willingness to receive COVID-19 vaccines among healthcare workers in India: Findings from repeated cross-sectional national surveys.

Background: COVID-19 vaccination of the healthcare workers (HCWs) is a key priority in the fight against the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. India launched its COVID-19 vaccination program in January 2021. We aimed to understand the trends in willingness to receive COVID-19 vaccines and its associated factors among HCWs in India. Methods: Using a repeated cross-sectional survey design, we collected information from HCWs in three critical time points: before (n = 937, October 2020), during (n = 1346, January 2021); and after (n = 812, May 2021) the introduction of COVID-19 vaccines in India. The third survey coincided with the peak of the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic in India. Findings: Of the study participants, 43.7, 60.2, and 73.2% were willing to receive COVID-19 vaccines during the first, second and third rounds of surveys, respectively. In multivariable logistic regression analysis, participants who trusted the health care system were more likely to report willingness to receive a COVID-19 vaccine; medical trust emerged as a significant factor in all the three rounds of surveys (First survey-aOR: 2.24, 95% CI: 1.67-2.99; Second survey-aOR: 3.38, 95% CI: 2.64-4.33; Third survey-aOR: 2.54, 95% CI: 1.65-3.91). Having confidence in domestic vaccines (Second survey-aOR: 2.21, 95% CI: 1.61-3.02; Third survey-aOR: 2.05, 95% CI: 1.24-3.37); and high perceived risk of contracting COVID-19 (Second survey-aOR: 1.48, 95% CI: 1.13-1.93; Third survey-aOR: 2.02, 95% CI: 1.31-3.13) were found to be associated with willingness to receive vaccines. Among socio-demographic characteristics, being married (aOR: 1.71, 95% CI: 1.08-2.71) and having high socio-economic status (aOR: 3.01, 95% CI: 1.65-5.51) emerged as significant factors associated with willingness to receive COVID-19 vaccines in the third round of the surveys. Interpretation: Willingness to receive COVID-19 vaccine increased with time, as the severity of the pandemic increased. To increase COVID-19 acceptance and coverage among HCWs, it is important to instill confidence in domestic vaccines and assist in accurate assessment of risk toward contracting COVID-19 infection.