Artificial neural network prediction of post-thyroidectomy outcome.

OBJECTIVES: The goal of this study was to develop a deep neural network (DNN) for predicting surgical/medical complications and unplanned reoperations following thyroidectomy. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: The 2005-2017 American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP) database was queried to extract patients who underwent thyroidectomy. A DNN consisting of 10 layers was developed with an 80:20 breakdown for training and testing. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Three primary outcomes of interest, including occurrence of surgical complications, medical complications, and unplanned reoperation were predicted. RESULTS: Of the 21 550 patients who underwent thyroidectomy, medical complications, surgical complications and reoperation occurred in 1723 (8.0%), 943 (4.38%) and 2448 (11.36%) patients, respectively. The DNN performed with an area under the curve of receiver operating characteristics of .783 (medical complications), .709 (surgical complications) and .703 (reoperations). Accuracy, specificity and negative predictive values of the model for all outcome variables ranged 78.2%-97.2%, while sensitivity and positive predictive values ranged 11.6%-62.5%. Variables with high permutation importance included sex, inpatient versus outpatient and American Society of Anesthesiologists class. CONCLUSIONS: We predicted surgical/medical complications and unplanned reoperation following thyroidectomy via development of a well-performing ML algorithm. We have also developed a web-based application available on mobile devices to demonstrate the predictive capacity of our models in real time.

Impact of esthesioneuroblastoma treatment delays on overall patient survival.

OBJECTIVES: To characterize clinical factors associated with esthesioneuroblastoma treatment delays and determine the impact of these delays on overall survival. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective database analysis. METHODS: The 2004-2016 National Cancer Database was queried for patients with esthesioneuroblastoma managed by primary surgery and adjuvant radiation. Durations of diagnosis-to-treatment initiation (DTI), diagnosis-to-treatment end (DTE), surgery-to-RT initiation (SRT), radiotherapy treatment (RTD), and total treatment package (TTP) were analyzed. The cohort was split into two groups for each delay interval using the median time as the threshold. RESULTS: A total of 814 patients (39.6% female, 88.5% white) with mean ± SD age of 52.6 ± 15.1 years who underwent both esthesioneuroblastoma surgery and adjuvant radiotherapy were queried. Median DTI, DTE, SRT, RTD, and TTP were 34, 140, 55, 45, and 101 days, respectively. A significant association was identified between increased regional radiation dose above 66 Gy and decreased DTI (OR = 0.54, 95% CI 0.35-0.83, p = 0.01) and increased RTD (OR = 3.94, 95% CI 2.36-6.58, p < 0.001) durations. Chemotherapy administration was linked with decreased SRT (OR = 0.64, 95% CI 0.47-0.89, p = 0.01) and TTP (OR = 0.59, 95% CI 0.43-0.82, p = 0.001) durations. Cox proportional-hazards analysis revealed that increased RTD was associated with decreased survival (HR = 1.80, 95% CI 1.26-2.57, p < 0.005), independent of age, sex, race, regional radiation dose, facility volume, facility type, insurance status, modified Kadish stage, chemotherapy status, Charlson-Deyo comorbidity index, and surgical margins. CONCLUSIONS: Delays during, and prolongation of radiotherapy for esthesioneuroblastoma appears to be associated with decreased survival. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: 4 Laryngoscope, 133:764-772, 2023.