ABSTRACT
The burden of influenza was estimated from surveillance data in Tunisia using epidemiological parameters of transmission with WHO classical tools and mathematical modelling. The incidence rates of influenza-associated influenza-like illness (ILI) per 100 000 were 18 735 in 2012/2013 season; 5536 in 2013/14 and 12 602 in 2014/15. The estimated proportions of influenza-associated ILI in the total outpatient load were 3.16%; 0.86% and 1.98% in the 3 seasons respectively. Distribution of influenza viruses among positive patients was: A(H3N2) 15.5%; A(H1N1)pdm2009 39.2%; and B virus 45.3% in 2014/2015 season. From the estimated numbers of symptomatic cases, we estimated that the critical proportions of the population that should be vaccinated were 15%, 4% and 10% respectively. Running the model for the different values of R0, we quantified the number of symptomatic clinical cases, the clinical attack rates, the symptomatic clinical attack rates and the number of deaths. More realistic versions of this model and improved estimates of parameters from surveillance data will strengthen the estimation of the burden of influenza.
Subject(s)
Cost of Illness , Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype/isolation & purification , Influenza A Virus, H3N2 Subtype/isolation & purification , Influenza, Human/epidemiology , Models, Theoretical , Seasons , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Child , Child, Preschool , Female , Humans , Incidence , Infant , Male , Middle Aged , Models, Statistical , Population Surveillance , Tunisia , Young AdultABSTRACT
The burden of influenza was estimated from surveillance data in Tunisia using epidemiological parameters of transmission with WHO classical tools and mathematical modelling. The incidence rates of influenza-associated influenza-like illness [ILI] per 100 000 were 18 735 in 2012/2013 season; 5536 in 2013/14 and 12 602 in 2014/15. The estimated proportions of influenza-associated ILI in the total outpatient load were 3.16%; 0.86% and 1.98% in the 3 seasons respectively. Distribution of influenza viruses among positive patients was: A[H3N2] 15.5%; A[H1N1] pdm2009 39.2%; and B virus 45.3% in 2014/2015 season. From the estimated numbers of symptomatic cases, we estimated that the critical proportions of the population that should be vaccinated were 15%, 4% and 10% respectively. Running the model for the different values of R0, we quantified the number of symptomatic clinical cases, the clinical attack rates, the symptomatic clinical attack rates and the number of deaths. More realistic versions of this model and improved estimates of parameters from surveillance data will strengthen the estimation of the burden of influenza
En Tunisie, la charge de la grippe a été estimée à partir des données de surveillance, en utilisant les paramètres épidémiologiques de la transmission avec les outils classiques de l'OMS et la modélisation mathématique. Les taux d'incidence des syndromes de type grippal [STG] associés à la grippe étaient 18 735 pour 100 000 pour la saison 2012-2013 ; 5 536 pour 2013-2014 et 12 602 pour 2014-2015. La part estimée de STG associés à la grippe pour la charge totale de patients externes était respectivement de 3,16%, 0,86% et 1,98% pour les trois saisons. Parmi les patients positifs au virus de la grippe, la répartition était la suivante pour la saison 2014-2015 : 15,5% pour le virus A[H3N2] ; 39,2% pour le virus A[H1N1]pdm2009 ; et 45,3% pour le virus B. A partir du nombre estimé de cas symptomatiques, nous avons calculé que la proportion critique de la population devant être vaccinée était respectivement de 15%, 4% et 10%. L'exécution du modèle avec les différentes valeurs de R0 nous a permis de déterminer le nombre de cas cliniques symptomatiques, les taux d'attaque clinique, les taux d'attaque clinique pour les cas symptomatiques et le nombre de décès. Des versions plus réalistes de ce modèle ainsi que des estimations améliorées des paramètres issus des données de surveillance permettront d'accroître l'utilité des modèles mathématiques
Subject(s)
Communicable Diseases , Influenza, Human , Seasons , Influenza A Virus, H1N1 SubtypeABSTRACT
Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is an important health problem in Tunisia. It is most common in children under five years of age. The governorate of Kairouan (central Tunisia) is one of the most affected foci. The aim of this study was to update the epidemiological, clinical and biological features of the disease. The study concerned all VL cases admitted in the pediatric department of Kairouan hospital during 10 years (from 2004 to 2013). For every patient included in this study and when available, data such as sex, age, geographical origin and the condition of the patient at admission (clinical and biological findings) were collected. The myelogram results were also exploited as well as results of serology, culture, Real-Time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and isoenzymatic typing of Leishmania isolates. Two hundred and forty cases were recorded. Rural cases (87.1%) were more prevalent than urban ones (12.9%). Age ranged from 2 months to 13 years (median, 18 months). The female/male sex ratio was 1.03. The diagnosis delays ranged from 1 day to 8 months (median, 15 days). The most common clinical symptoms at admission were splenomegaly (97.9%), fever (79.9%) and hepatomegaly (47.3%). The principal biological disturbances were anemia (91.7%), thrombocytopenia (83.9%) and leucopenia (56.1%). Among the different biological tools used for diagnosis confirmation, PCR was the most sensitive (100%). All 43 typed stocks corresponded to Leishmania (L.) infantum species. Although zymodeme MON-1 was predictably the most frequent (27 cases), L. infantum MON-24 and MON-80 were responsible of no negligible numbers of cases (11 and 5 cases respectively). The present study gave an updated epidemiological, clinical and biological profile of infantile VL in Tunisia. The diagnosis delays were considerably shortened compared to previous reports. However, an even earlier diagnosis of cases is needed to improve the disease prognosis. Real-Time PCR showed to be helpful in VL management.
Subject(s)
Leishmaniasis, Visceral/epidemiology , Adolescent , Child , Child, Preschool , Delayed Diagnosis/statistics & numerical data , Female , Hospitals/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Incidence , Infant , Leishmaniasis, Visceral/pathology , Male , Patient Admission/statistics & numerical data , Tunisia/epidemiologyABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES: The survival benefits achieved by prescription of antiplatelet agents, B-adrenoreceptor antagonists (beta-blockers), angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARB), and lipid lowering agents in patients surviving the myocardial infarction (MI) have been well documented in large clinical trial. Despite well-established benefits, these pharmacological agents continue to be underutilized. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the progress of cardiovascular secondary prevention practices in Tunisia. METHODS: The PREMISE (Prevention of Recurrence of Myocardial Infarction and Stroke) is a descriptive, cross-sectional study conducted in Tunisia in two phases (2002 and 2009). Seven hundred eighty two patients were recruited. The recruitment criteria were: previous MI, stable angina, unstable angina, percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty (PTCA), coronary artery bypass graft (CABG), stroke, transient ischemic attack (TIA) or carotid endarterectomy. This analysis is limited to coronary heart disease (CHD) patients. Five hundred hospital patients were interviewed and their medical records were reviewed: 250 in 2002 and 250 in 2009. Patients were included if they had confirmed diagnosis of MI, angina, CABG or PTCA, and if their first cardiovascular event had occurred more than one month but not later than 3 years ago. We compared the total of both patient groups, using the prevalence of Cardio-Vascular Risk Factors (CVRF) and the treatment prescribed at hospital discharge. RESULTS: The proportion of patients with reported hypertension, diabetes, hypercholesterolemia and current smoker patients had decreased. Concerning pharmacological prescriptions, a significant increase was observed in prescribing statins (38.9% vs. 70.3%) and ACE inhibitors (49.3% vs. 69.9%), non pharmacological prescriptions as healthy diet or tobacco cessation had opposite trends. Adherence to treatment did not change substantially. CONCLUSION: Although the use of cardioprotective drugs had increased in CHD patients, there are still gaps in secondary prevention in Tunisia. The recommended strategies of secondary prevention need to be applied more intensively in clinical practice.
