Risk Assessment Score and Chi-Square Automatic Interaction Detection Algorithm for Hypertension Among Africans: Models From the SIREN Study.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to develop a risk-scoring model for hypertension among Africans. METHODS: In this study, 4413 stroke-free controls were used to develop the risk-scoring model for hypertension. Logistic regression models were applied to 13 risk factors. We randomly split the dataset into training and testing data at a ratio of 80:20. Constant and standardized weights were assigned to factors significantly associated with hypertension in the regression model to develop a probability risk score on a scale of 0 to 1 using a logistic regression model. The model accuracy was assessed to estimate the cutoff score for discriminating hypertensives. RESULTS: Mean age was 59.9±13.3 years, 56.0% were hypertensives, and 8 factors, including diabetes, age ≥65 years, higher waist circumference, (BMI) ≥30 kg/m2, lack of formal education, living in urban residence, family history of cardiovascular diseases, and dyslipidemia use were associated with hypertension. Cohen κ was maximal at ≥0.28, and a total probability risk score of ≥0.60 was adopted for both statistical weighting for risk quantification of hypertension in both datasets. The probability risk score presented a good performance-receiver operating characteristic: 64% (95% CI, 61.0-68.0), a sensitivity of 55.1%, specificity of 71.5%, positive predicted value of 70.9%, and negative predicted value of 55.8%, in the test dataset. Similarly, decision tree had a predictive accuracy of 67.7% (95% CI, 66.1-69.3) for the training set and 64.6% (95% CI, 61.0-68.0) for the testing dataset. CONCLUSIONS: The novel risk-scoring model discriminated hypertensives with good accuracy and will be helpful in the early identification of community-based Africans vulnerable to hypertension for its primary prevention.

Description of the design of a mixed-methods study to assess the burden and determinants of malaria transmission for tailoring of interventions (microstratification) in Ibadan and Kano metropolis.

BACKGROUND: Rapid urbanization in Nigerian cities may lead to localized variations in malaria transmission, particularly with a higher burden in informal settlements and slums. However, there is a lack of available data to quantify the variations in transmission risk at the city level and inform the selection of appropriate interventions. To bridge this gap, field studies will be undertaken in Ibadan and Kano, two major Nigerian cities. These studies will involve a blend of cross-sectional and longitudinal epidemiological research, coupled with longitudinal entomological studies. The primary objective is to gain insights into the variation of malaria risk at the smallest administrative units, known as wards, within these cities. METHODS/RESULTS: The findings will contribute to the tailoring of interventions as part of Nigeria's National Malaria Strategic Plan. The study design incorporates a combination of model-based clustering and on-site visits for ground-truthing, enabling the identification of environmental archetypes at the ward-level to establish the study's framework. Furthermore, community participatory approaches will be utilized to refine study instruments and sampling strategies. The data gathered through cross-sectional and longitudinal studies will contribute to an enhanced understanding of malaria risk in the metropolises of Kano and Ibadan. CONCLUSIONS: This paper outlines pioneering field study methods aimed at collecting data to inform the tailoring of malaria interventions in urban settings. The integration of multiple study types will provide valuable data for mapping malaria risk and comprehending the underlying determinants. Given the importance of location-specific data for microstratification, this study presents a systematic process and provides adaptable tools that can be employed in cities with limited data availability.

Proximate determinants and decomposition of changes in fertility levels across Nigeria regions: Evidence from Nigeria Demographic Health Survey, 2003-2018.

There is disparity in fertility level across the six geopolitical zones in Nigeria. Deeper uunderstanding about the drivers of fertility trends are necessary to prioritize zonal specific strategies for fertility reduction in Nigeria. Thus, this study examined the proximate determinants (PDs) of fertility and decomposed the change in its level across the six geo-political zones in Nigeria. Data from Nigeria Demographic and Health Surveys of 2003 and 2018 were analyzed. Fertility data were based on the report of full birth history from women of reproductive age. The Revised Bongaarts framework was used to estimate PDs and fertility levels. The contribution of each PDs to the observed changes in fertility levels was quantified using Das Gupta's five- factor decomposition method. The Total fertility rate (TFR) in 2003 and 2008 across the zones are South-South (5.04 vs 4.36), South-West (4.88 vs 4.26), North West (7.25 vs 6.85), North East (6.87 vs 6.54), North Central (5.72 vs 5.48), South East (5.06 vs 4.86), Nigeria (6.00 vs 5.59). Across the zones, there was a change in the fertility inhibiting effect of Contraception (Cc) between 2003 and 2018. The fertility inhibiting effect of Postpartum Infecundability (Ci) and Abortion was the highest and smallest respectively across the zones. Delayed sexual exposure (Cm) and contraceptive use (Cc) contributed the most to the change across the regions. The percentage contribution of Cm in South-South, South West, and South East was 87.04%, 52.89%, and 172.85% respectively. Furthermore, most of the fertility change observed in North Central was attributable to Cc. Abortion index was not an important inhibiting factor of fertility in Nigeria. Delayed sexual exposure and contraceptive use accounted for the largest change observed in fertility levels across the six geo-political zones in Nigeria between 2003 and 2018. Strategies that promote delayed sexual exposure, contraceptive use and breast feeding practices will enhance fertility transition in Nigeria.

Permutation-based multiple testing corrections for P $$ P $$ -values and confidence intervals for cluster randomized trials.

In this article, we derive and compare methods to derive P-values and sets of confidence intervals with strong control of the family-wise error rates and coverage for estimates of treatment effects in cluster randomized trials with multiple outcomes. There are few methods for P-value corrections and deriving confidence intervals, limiting their application in this setting. We discuss the methods of Bonferroni, Holm, and Romano and Wolf and adapt them to cluster randomized trial inference using permutation-based methods with different test statistics. We develop a novel search procedure for confidence set limits using permutation tests to produce a set of confidence intervals under each method of correction. We conduct a simulation-based study to compare family-wise error rates, coverage of confidence sets, and the efficiency of each procedure in comparison to no correction using both model-based standard errors and permutation tests. We show that the Romano-Wolf type procedure has nominal error rates and coverage under non-independent correlation structures and is more efficient than the other methods in a simulation-based study. We also compare results from the analysis of a real-world trial.

Patient-level and system-level determinants of stroke fatality across 16 large hospitals in Ghana and Nigeria: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Every minute, six indigenous Africans develop new strokes. Patient-level and system-level contributors to early stroke fatality in this region are yet to be delineated. We aimed to identify and quantify the contributions of patient-level and system-level determinants of inpatient stroke fatality across 16 hospitals in Ghana and Nigeria. METHODS: The Stroke Investigative Research and Educational Network (SIREN) is a multicentre study involving 16 sites in Ghana and Nigeria. Cases include adults (aged ≥18 years) with clinical and radiological evidence of an acute stroke. Data on stroke services and resources available at each study site were collected and analysed as system-level factors. A host of demographic and clinical variables of cases were analysed as patient-level factors. A mixed effect log-binomial model including both patient-level and system-level covariates was fitted. Results are presented as adjusted risk ratios (aRRs) with respective 95% CIs. FINDINGS: Overall, 814 (21·8%) of the 3739 patients admitted with stroke died as inpatients: 476 (18·1%) of 2635 with ischaemic stroke and 338 (30·6%) of 1104 with intracerebral haemorrhage. The variability in the odds of stroke fatality that could be attributed to the system-level factors across study sites assessed using model intracluster correlation coefficient was substantial at 7·3% (above a 5% threshold). Stroke units were available at only five of 16 centres. The aRRs of six patient-level factors associated with stroke fatality were: low vegetable consumption, 1·19 (95% CI 1·07-1·33); systolic blood pressure, 1·02 (1·01-1·04) for each 10 mm Hg rise; stroke lesion volume more than 30 cm3, 1·48 (1·22-1·79); National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score, 1·20 (1·13-1·26) for each 5-unit rise; elevated intracranial pressure, 1·75 (1·31-2·33); and aspiration pneumonia, 1·79 (1·16-2·77). INTERPRETATION: Studies are needed to assess the efficacy of interventions targeting patient-level factors such as aspiration pneumonia in reducing acute stroke fatality in this region. Policy directives to improve stroke unit access are warranted. FUNDING: US National Institutes of Health. TRANSLATIONS: For the Twi, Yoruba and Hausa translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Shifts in age pattern, timing of childbearing and trend in fertility level across six regions of Nigeria: Nigeria Demographic and Health Surveys from 2003-2018.

BACKGROUND: Nigeria's population is projected to increase from 200 million in 2019 to 450 million in 2050 if the fertility level remains at the current level. Thus, we examined the shifts in the age pattern of fertility, timing of childbearing and trend in fertility levels from 2003 and 2018 across six regions of Nigeria. METHOD: This study utilised the 2003, 2008, 2013, and 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey datasets. Each survey was a cross-sectional population-based design, and a two-stage cluster sampling technique was used to select women aged 15-49 years. The changes in the timing of childbearing were examined by calculating the corresponding mean ages at the birth of different birth orders for each birth order separately to adjust the Quantum effect for births. The Gompertz Relational Model was used to examine the age pattern of fertility and refined fertility level. RESULT: In Nigeria, it was observed that there was a minimal decline in mean children ever born (CEB) between 2003 and 2018 across all maternal age groups except aged 20-24 years. The pattern of mean CEB by the age of mothers was the same across the Nigeria regions except in North West. Nigeria's mean number of CEB to women aged 40-49 in 2003, 2008, 2013 and 2018 surveys was 6.7, 6.6, 6.3 and 6.1, respectively. The mean age (years) at first birth marginally increased from 21.3 in 2003 to 22.5 in 2018. In 2003, the mean age at first birth was highest in South East (24.3) and lowest in North East (19.4); while South West had the highest (24.4) and both North East and North West had the lowest (20.2) in 2018. Similar age patterns of fertility existed between 2003 and 2018 across the regions. Nigeria's estimated total fertility level for 2003, 2008, 2013 and 2018 was 6.1, 6.1, 5.9 and 5.7, respectively. CONCLUSION: The findings showed a reducing but slow fertility declines in Nigeria. The decline varied substantially across the regions. For a downward change in the level of fertility, policies that will constrict the spread of fertility distribution across the region in Nigeria must urgently be put in place.

Capacity-Building for Stroke Genomic Research Data Collection: The African Neurobiobank Ethical, Legal, and Social Implications Project Experience.

Background: The fields of stroke genomics, biobanking, and precision medicine are rapidly expanding in sub-Saharan Africa. However, the ethical, legal, and social implications (ELSI) of emerging neurobiobanking and genomic data resources are unclear in an emerging African scientific landscape with unique cultural, linguistic, and belief systems. Objective: This article documents capacity-building experiences of researchers during the development, pretesting, and validation of data collection instruments of the African Neurobiobank for Precision Stroke Medicine-(ELSI) Project. Methods: The African Neurobiobank for Precision Stroke Medicine-ELSI project is a transnational, multicenter project implemented across seven sites in Ghana and Nigeria. Guided by the Community-Based Participatory Research framework, we conducted three workshops with key stakeholders to review the study protocol, ensure uniformity in implementation; pretest, harmonize, and integrate context-specific feedback to ensure validity and adaptability of data collection instruments. Workshop impact was assessed using an open-ended questionnaire, which included questions on experience with participation in any of the workshops, building capacity in Genetic and Genomic Research (GGR), level of preparedness toward GGR, the genomic mini-dictionary developed by the team, and its impact in enhancing understanding in GGR. Data were analyzed qualitatively using a thematic framework approach. Results: Findings revealed the usefulness of the workshop in improving participants' knowledge and capacity toward GGR implementation. It further identified local, context-specific concerns regarding quality data collection, the need to develop culturally acceptable, genomic/biobanking data collection tools, and a mini-dictionary. Participants-reported perceptions were that the mini-dictionary enhanced understanding, participation, and data collection in GGR. Overall, participants reported increased preparedness and interest in participating in GGR. Conclusion: Capacity-building is a necessary step toward ELSI-related genomic research implementation in African countries where scholarship of ELSI of genomics research is emerging. Our findings may be useful to the design and implementation of ELSI-GGR projects in other African countries.

Heart failure in Nigeria: protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: Heart failure is now a significant contributor to the burden of non-communicable diseases in developing countries like Nigeria which is experiencing epidemiologic and demographic transition. The epidemiology of heart failure in this country is poorly characterized. The aim of the review is to determine the prevalence of heart failure, the associated risk factors, the aetiology, management, and outcomes of the condition in the country. Methods: Relevant databases such as PubMed /Medline, EMBASE, Web of Science, Google Scholar, African Index Medicus, and African journal online would be searched for articles published in English from January 2000 to December 2021. The analysis will include observational studies conducted among Nigerian adults aged 12 years and above. Article selection shall be conducted by pairs of independent reviewers. Data extraction shall be done by 2 independent reviewers. Results: The primary outcome would be the pooled prevalence of heart failure while the secondary outcomes would be to identify the risk factors and management of heart failure in Nigeria. Conclusion: This will be the first systematic review and meta-analysis of heart failure epidemiology in Nigeria which will hopefully identify gaps for future research and guidance for policy interventions.

Abdominal obesity, serum estradiol and cardiovascular risk among Nigerian postmenopausal women: a cross-sectional study.

Background: Rates of cardiovascular (CV) disease mortality is usually higher in men but this equalizes with that of women following menopause. Objectives: This was to determine the contribution of abdominal obesity and estradiol to cardiovascular risk in postmenopausal women (PMW) as well as estimate their CV risk profile. Methods: 271 consenting PMW were recruited consecutively into this cross-sectional hospital-based study. Data relating to their socio-demography, blood pressure and anthropometry was obtained and laboratory analysis of lipid profile and serum estradiol was done. Cardiovascular risk of participants was estimated using standardized calculators. Results: Mean age of participants was 57.8±5.5 years. Significant correlation existed between each of triglyceride (Positive), High Density Lipoprotein (negative) and Waist-Hip-Ratio (WHR) (p=0.001 and 0.000 respectively). Hypertension and dyslipidaemia were significantly associated with WHR (p=0.01 and 0.031 respectively). Significant negative correlation existed between CV risk profile and serum estradiol (rs = -0.140, p = 0.028). Ten-unit increase in WHR was associated with two-fold risk of hypertension (OR> 1.73, C.I.= 1.13-2.66). A unit change in age was associated with 0.61 increase in TC. Conclusion: Abdominal obesity and serum estradiol significantly influence cardio-metabolic risk. Newer risk calculator which incorporates factors peculiar to women such as serum E2 is hereby recommended.

Factors Associated with the Uptake of Antenatal Tetanus Toxoids Containing Vaccine by First-Time Mothers in Nigeria: Findings from the 2018 Nigerian Demographic Health Survey.

Background: Maternal and neonatal tetanus remains a public health problem in low-and-middle-income countries despite the increasing investment in tetanus toxoid containing vaccines (TTCV). Nigeria still records fatalities from tetanus, predominantly in women of reproductive age and in newborns. This is largely due to poor access to vaccinations and high rates of unsupervised labour and childbirth. We aim to investigate the antenatal uptake of TTCV and associated factors among first-time pregnant women in Nigeria. Methods: Data obtained from the 2018 Nigeria Demographic Health Survey (NDHS) was used to generate a list of eligible patients who in the last five years had undergone their first childbirth experience. Data was analysed using univariable and multivariable analyses and reported using a 95% confidence interval. Results: A total of 3640 participants were included in the analysis. 59.6% (95% CI, 57.6-61.8) of participants had received at least two doses of TTCV. Uptake of TTCV irrespective of current marital status was independently associated with number of and place of antenatal care. Other factors associated with receiving two doses of TTCV in all participants were ownership of mobile phones and region of residence. Among the currently married participants, wealth quintiles, region of residence, and having a polygamous family were additional associated factors. Conclusion: There was low uptake of the minimal required dosage of TTCV among first-time pregnant women with the lowest uptake in Northern regions relative to Southern regions. We recommend mixed methods studies to further explore the motivation behind TTCV uptake in pregnant women which can help guide future policies and interventions to improve uptake of tetanus immunization in Nigeria.

Perceptions of COVID-19 transmission risk and testing readiness in rural Southwest Nigeria.

Although community screening and testing have been recommended by the World Health Organization, the extent of readiness and the associated factors among rural populations remain unknown. We investigated the factors associated with perception of the COVID-19 transmission risk and readiness for testing in rural areas of Southwest Nigeria. Using a multistage cluster sampling technique, cross-sectional data was collected from 922 adults aged 18 years and above who were resident in rural communities selected across three States in the Southwest region between June and August 2020. Descriptive statistics and binary logit models with robust standard errors were utilized for analysis. Mean age of respondents was 37.0 (SD = 15.8) years; 58.6% female; 46.5% had secondary education; and most were traders (33.2%) and artisans (29.9%). Only 149 respondents (16.2%) had a accurate perception of COVID-19 transmission risk. Adjusted logit models showed that independent factors associated with accurate perception of COVID-19 transmission risk include: age 18&19 years (OR = 0.50, CI: 0.34-0.73); exposure to electronic media (OR = 1.84, CI: 1.07-3.18); and being an in-migrant (OR = 3.38, CI: 2.44-4.68). Less than one-third (28.8%) were willing to test for COVID-19. Severe fear of COVID-19 (OR = 3.99, CI: 1.36-11.74) was associated with willingness to undergo COVID-19 testing. Socio-demographic predictors of testing readiness included: male sex (OR = 1.51, CI: 1.36-1.68); traditional religion (OR = 2.81, CI: 1.05-7.53); and exposure to electronic media (OR = 1.31, CI: 1.06-1.62). Awareness campaigns need to be scaled up to improve perception and preparedness to test for COVID-19.

Social consequences of COVID-19 on fertility preference consistency and contraceptive use among Nigerian women: insights from population-based data.

BACKGROUND: Emerging evidence from high income countries showed that the COVID-19 pandemic has had negative effects on population and reproductive health behaviour. This study provides a sub-Saharan Africa perspective by documenting the social consequences of COVID-19 and its relationship to fertility preference stability and modern contraceptive use in Nigeria. METHOD: We analysed panel data collected by Performance Monitoring for Action in Nigeria. Baseline and Follow-up surveys were conducted before the COVID-19 outbreak (November 2019-February 2020) and during the lockdown respectively (May-July 2020). Analysis was restricted to married non-pregnant women during follow-up (n = 774). Descriptive statistics and generalized linear models were employed to explore the relationship between selected social consequences of COVID-19 and fertility preferences stability (between baseline and follow-up) as well as modern contraceptives use. RESULTS: Reported social consequences of the pandemic lockdown include total loss of household income (31.3%), food insecurity (16.5%), and greater economic reliance on partner (43.0%). Sixty-eight women (8.8%) changed their minds about pregnancy and this was associated with age groups, higher wealth quintile (AOR = 0.38, CI: 0.15-0.97) and household food insecurity (AOR = 2.72, CI: 1.23-5.99). Fertility preference was inconsistent among 26.1%. Women aged 30-34 years (AOR = 4.46, CI:1.29-15.39) were more likely of inconsistent fertility preference compared to 15-24 years. The likelihood was also higher among women with three children compared to those with only one child (AOR = 3.88, CI: 1.36-11.08). During follow-up survey, 59.4% reported they would feel unhappy if pregnant. This was more common among women with tertiary education (AOR = 2.99, CI: 1.41-6.33). The odds increased with parity. The prevalence of modern contraceptive use was 32.8%. Women aged 45-49 years (AOR = 0.24, CI: 0.10-0.56) were less likely to use modern contraceptives than those aged 15-24 years. In contrast, the odds of contraceptive use were significantly higher among those with three (AOR = 1.82, CI: 1.03-3.20), four (AOR = 2.45, CI: 1.36-4.39) and at least five (AOR = 2.89, CI: 1.25-6.74) children. Unhappy disposition towards pregnancy (AOR = 2.48, CI: 1.724-3.58) was also a significant predictor of modern contraceptive use. CONCLUSION: Some social consequences of COVID-19 affected pregnancy intention and stability of fertility preference but showed no independent association with modern contraceptive use.

Drivers of long-lasting insecticide-treated net utilisation and parasitaemia among under-five children in 13 States with high malaria burden in Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Although Nigeria has made some progress in malaria control, there are variations across States. We investigated the factors associated with utilisation of long-lasting insecticide-treated net (LLIN) and parasitaemia among under-five children in 13 States with high malaria burden. METHOD: Data from the 2015 Nigeria Malaria Indicator Survey and 2018 Demographic and Health Survey were obtained and analysed. The 2015 and 2018 data were compared to identify States with increase or reduction in parasitaemia. Analysis was done for all the 13 study States; four States with increased parasitaemia and nine States with reduction. Random-effects logit models were fitted to identify independent predictors of LLIN utilisation and parasitaemia. RESULTS: LLIN was used by 53.4% of 2844 children, while parasitaemia prevalence was 26.4% in 2018. Grandchildren (AOR = 5.35, CI: 1.09-26.19) were more likely to use LLIN while other relatives (AOR = 0.33, CI: 0.11-0.94) were less likely compared to children of household-heads. LLIN use was more common in children whose mother opined that only weak children could die from malaria (AOR = 1.83, CI: 1.10-3.10). Children whose mothers obtained net from antenatal or immunisation clinics (AOR = 5.30, CI: 2.32-12.14) and campaigns (AOR = 1.77, CI: 1.03-3.04) were also more likely to use LLIN. In contrast, LLIN utilisation was less likely among children in female-headed households (AOR = 0.51, CI: 0.27-0.99) and those in poor-quality houses (AOR = 0.25, CI: 0.09-0.72). Children aged 24-59 months compared to 0-11 months (AOR = 1.78, CI: 1.28-2.48), those in whom fever was reported (AOR = 1.31, CI: 1.06-1.63) and children of uneducated women (AOR = 1.89, CI: 1.32-2.70) were more likely to have parasitaemia. The likelihood of parasitaemia was higher among children from poor households compared to the rich (AOR = 2.06, CI: 1.24-3.42). The odds of parasitaemia were 98% higher among rural children (AOR = 1.98, CI: 1.37-2.87). CONCLUSION: The key drivers of LLIN utilisation were source of net and socioeconomic characteristics. The latter was also a key factor associated with parasitaemia. These should be targeted as part of integrated malaria elimination efforts.

Health service utilisation during the COVID-19 pandemic in sub-Saharan Africa in 2020: a multicountry empirical assessment with a focus on maternal, newborn and child health services.

INTRODUCTION: There are concerns about the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the continuation of essential health services in sub-Saharan Africa. Through the Countdown to 2030 for Women's, Children's and Adolescents' Health country collaborations, analysts from country and global public health institutions and ministries of health assessed the trends in selected services for maternal, newborn and child health, general service utilisation. METHODS: Monthly routine health facility data by district for the period 2017-2020 were compiled by 12 country teams and adjusted after extensive quality assessments. Mixed effects linear regressions were used to estimate the size of any change in service utilisation for each month from March to December 2020 and for the whole COVID-19 period in 2020. RESULTS: The completeness of reporting of health facilities was high in 2020 (median of 12 countries, 96% national and 91% of districts ≥90%), higher than in the preceding years and extreme outliers were few. The country median reduction in utilisation of nine health services for the whole period March-December 2020 was 3.9% (range: -8.2 to 2.4). The greatest reductions were observed for inpatient admissions (median=-17.0%) and outpatient admissions (median=-7.1%), while antenatal, delivery care and immunisation services generally had smaller reductions (median from -2% to -6%). Eastern African countries had greater reductions than those in West Africa, and rural districts were slightly more affected than urban districts. The greatest drop in services was observed for March-June 2020 for general services, when the response was strongest as measured by a stringency index. CONCLUSION: The district health facility reports provide a solid basis for trend assessment after extensive data quality assessment and adjustment. Even the modest negative impact on service utilisation observed in most countries will require major efforts, supported by the international partners, to maintain progress towards the SDG health targets by 2030.

Development and evaluation of a package to improve hypertension control in Nigeria [DEPIHCON]: a cluster-randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Nigeria's healthcare system capacity to stem the increasing trend in hypertension is limited in coverage, scope and manpower. Use of trained community-based care providers demonstrated to be an effective complement in improving access to, and supporting healthcare delivery has not been adequately examined for hypertension care in Nigeria. This study is proposed to evaluate the effectiveness of using trained community-oriented resource persons (CORPs) to improve hypertension control in Nigeria. METHODS: An intervention study will be conducted in three states using a mixed method design. First is a baseline survey using a semi-structured pre-tested questionnaire to collect information on demographics, clinical data, knowledge, occurrence and risk factors of hypertension among 1704 adults ≥18 years. Focus group discussions (FGD) and key informant interviews (KII) will be conducted to explore a community's experience of hypertension, challenges with hypertension management and support required to improve control in 10 selected communities in each state. The second is a cluster-randomized controlled trial to evaluate effect of a package on reduction of blood pressure (BP) and prevention of cardiovascular (CVD) risk factors among 200 hypertensive patients to be followed up in intervention and control arms over a 6-month period in each state. The package will include trained CORPs conducting community-based screening of BP and referral, diagnosis confirmation and initial treatment in the health facility, followed by monthly home-based follow-up care and provision of health education on hypertension control and healthy lifestyle enhanced by phone voice message reminders. In the control arm, the usual care (diagnosis, treatment and follow-up care in hospital of a patient's choice) will continue. Third, an endline survey will be conducted in both intervention and control communities to evaluate changes in mean BP, control, knowledge and proportion of other CVD risk factors. In addition, FGD and KII will be used to assess participants' perceived quality and acceptability of the interventions as delivered by CORPs. DISCUSSION: This research is expected to create awareness, improve knowledge, perception, behaviours, attitude and practices that will reduce hypertension in Nigeria. Advocacy for buy-in and scale up of using CORPs in hypertension care by the government is key if found to be effective. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PACTR Registry PACTR202107530985857 . Registered on 26 July 2021.

Risk assessment for COVID-19 transmission at household level in sub-Saharan Africa: evidence from DHS.

Household habitat conditions matter for diseases transmission and control, especially in the case of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19). These conditions include availability and adequacy of sanitation facilities, and number of persons per room. Despite this, little attention is being paid to these conditions as a pathway to understanding the transmission and prevention of COVID-19, especially in Africa, where household habitat conditions are largely suboptimal. This study assesses household sanitation and isolation capacities to understand the COVID-19 transmission risk at household level across Africa. We conducted a secondary analysis of the Demographic and Health Surveys of 16 African countries implemented between 2015 and 2018 to understand the status of households for prevention of COVID-19 transmission in home. We assessed handwashing capacity and self-isolation capacity using multiple parameters, and identified households with elderly persons, who are most at risk of the disease. We fitted two-level random intercept logit models to explore independent relationships among the three indicators, while controlling for the selected explanatory variables. Handwashing capacity was highest in Tanzania (48.2%), and lowest in Chad (4.2%), varying by household location (urban or rural), as well as household wealth. Isolation capacity was highest in South Africa (77.4%), and lowest in Ethiopia (30.9%). Senegal had the largest proportion of households with an elderly person (42.1%), while Angola (16.4%) had the lowest. There were strong, independent relationships between handwashing and isolation capacities in a majority of countries. Also, strong associations were found between isolation capacity and presence of older persons in households. Household capacity for COVID-19 prevention varied significantly across countries, with those having elderly household members not necessarily having the best handwashing or isolation capacity. In view of the age risk factors of COVID-19 transmission, and its dependence on handwashing and isolation capacities of households, each country needs to use the extant information on its risk status to shape communication and intervention strategies that will help limit the impact of the disease in its population across Africa. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s41118-021-00130-w.

Social contexts of fertility desire among non-childbearing young men and women aged 15-24 years in Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Reduction in ideal number of children has been suggested as a necessary precursor for fertility decline especially in high fertility countries of Western and Central Africa. In this study, we explored the social contexts of fertility desires by documenting the effects of individual, household as well as contextual characteristics among young men and women in Nigeria. METHODS: Data source was the male and female recode file of 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey. Analytical sample comprised 2674 males and 9637 females aged 15-24 years. The main outcome variable was desire for large family size (DLFS) defined as ideal number of children greater than four. Analysis involved use of descriptive statistics and random-effect logit models fitted in four stages. RESULTS: DLFS was 71% among young men and 53% in women. Individual-level factors associated with DLFS among men includes Islam religion (OR = 3.95, CI 2.68-5.83), household size (OR = 1.05) and richer (OR = 0.47, CI 0.29-0.75) or richest wealth index (OR = 0.28, CI 0.16-0.75). Geo-political region and high level of negative attitude to family planning (OR = 1.72, CI 1.23-2.40) were the main contextual factors associated with DLFS. For women, individual-level correlates were education, religion, ethnicity, marital status, household size, and wealth index. Contextual factors include geo-political region, community education (OR = 0.68, CI 0.52-0.89), child mortality experience (OR = 1.29, CI 1.11-1.51) and negative attitude to family planning (OR = 1.36, CI 1.13-1.65). The influence of religion, household wealth and attitude to family planning differ between young men and women. CONCLUSION: Active communication and programmatic interventions are needed so that desire for large family size by young men and women do not become a clog for fertility transition in Nigeria.

Reduction in ideal number of children has been suggested as a necessary condition for fertility decline especially in high fertility countries of Western and Central Africa. In this study, we explored the effects of individual, household as well as community characteristics on fertility desires among young men and women aged 15­24 years in Nigeria. We analysed data for 2674 males and 9637 females aged 15­24 years extracted from the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey. The outcome variable was desire for large family size (DLFS) defined as ideal number of children greater than four. Results showed that DLFS was 71% among men and 53% in women. Individual-level factors associated with DLFS among men include Islam religion, household size and wealth status. Geo-political region and high level of negative attitude to family planning were the main community-level factors associated with DLFS. For women, individual-level positively associated with DLFS were Islam religion, and being currently married. Compared to Yoruba, other ethnic groups were more likely to favour DLFS. The negative factors associated with DLFS among young women include higher education and wealth status. At the community-level, Northern geo-political regions, child mortality experience and negative attitude to family planning were positively associated with DLFS. The influence of religion, household wealth and attitude to family planning differ between young men and women. Multi-dimensional strategies with active communication and programmatic interventions are needed so that desire for large family size by young men and women do not slow down fertility transition in Nigeria.

Illness perception amongst adults with multimorbidity at primary care clinics in Southwest Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Although shreds of evidence are emerging to show the role of illness perceptions in the health outcomes of patients, most of the previous studies have been on single chronic conditions. AIM: To assess the illness perceptions and the associated factors amongst adults with multimorbidity. SETTING: General outpatient clinics of the University College Hospital, Ibadan, Nigeria. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted amongst a systematic sample of 403 adults with multimorbidity. Data on illness perception and other variables were collected using interviewer-administered questionnaires. Descriptive statistics, chi-square test, t-test and analysis of variance were employed for analyses. RESULTS: The age of the participants ranged from 18 to 97 years, with a mean of 60.9 years (standard deviation [s.d.] ± 14.3 years). The majority of participants (57.3%) were women. Ninety-four (23.3%) respondents had only two morbid conditions, whilst 31.2% had at least four morbid conditions. Prioritisation sub-domain of illness perception recorded the highest score (mean = 2.0, s.d. ± 0.8), whilst the treatment burden sub-domain was the lowest (mean = 0.8, s.d. ± 0.7). A significant bivariate relationship was observed between emotional representation (p = 0.001), prioritisation (p = 0.013) and causal relationship (p = 0.013) sub-domains and age group of study participants. Emotional burden associated with illnesses declined as educational level increased (p = 0.039). CONCLUSION: Patient's characteristics such as age, education and the number of morbidities are associated with illness perception. Healthcare providers should pay attention to these factors whilst addressing illness perception as a way to achieve better clinical outcomes.

Caregiver burden and associated factors amongst carers of women with advanced breast cancer attending a radiation oncology clinic in Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: The responsibility of caring for patients with advanced cancer in sub-Saharan Africa is mostly shouldered by family members because of paucity of institutional facilities. There is a growing concern that the number of women needing treatment for advanced breast cancer is rising at an unprecedented rate in Nigeria. AIM: To assess the caregiver burden and its associated factors amongst family caregivers of women with advanced breast cancer. SETTING: The study was conducted at the radiation oncology clinic of the University College Hospital, Ibadan, Nigeria. METHODS: A cross-sectional descriptive study was conducted amongst 157 eligible family caregivers of women with advanced breast cancer. The family caregivers completed an interviewer-administered questionnaire, which included the socio-demographic data, the caregiving process and the Zarit Burden Interview (ZBI). Logistic regression was used to identify factors, and ethical approval was obtained. RESULTS: Over half (53%) of the respondents were males with spousal caregivers dominantly constituting 27.4% of all respondents, closely followed by daughters (25.5%) of the care recipients. The mean ZBI score was 29.84 ± 13.9. Most (72%) of the caregivers experienced burden. Factors associated with caregiver burden were previous hospitalisation of the care recipient (odds ratio [OR] = 3.74, confidence interval [CI]: 1.67 to 8.38) and perceived dysfunction in patients activities of daily living (OR = 2.57, CI: 1.14 to 5.78). CONCLUSION: Family caregivers of women with advanced breast cancer experience burden of care. Recognition of this vulnerable population and the care recipient as a dyad is a sine qua non in mitigating the burden associated with their caregiving role.

Demography of remarriage and fertility desire among women receiving antiretroviral therapy in South West Nigeria.

Background: In view of sociocultural norms surrounding marriage and childbearing in South West Nigeria, fertility desire may be stronger among remarried women living with HIV. This article describes the characteristics of remarriage and its relationship to fertility desire.Method: A cross-sectional study was conducted among HIV-positive women aged 18-49 years at the Antiretroviral Treatment (ART) clinic, College of Medicine/University College Hospital, Ibadan, Nigeria between November and December 2015. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics and generalised linear models.Results: Overall, 123 (17.3%) of 711 women had experienced remarriage. Significant factors among remarried women were a lack of formal education (ORadj = 3.35, CI: 1.46-7.72); polygamous family (ORadj = 2.65, CI: 1.71-4.12), and serodiscordant union (ORadj = 1.97, CI: 1.14-3.41). Fertility desire was expressed by 410 women (57.7%). After controlling for demographic, socio-economic, and HIV-care characteristics, remarried women were 2.5 times as likely to have fertility desire compared to their counterparts who never remarried (ORadj = 2.49, CI: 1.43-4.33). Younger age was significantly associated with higher odds of fertility desire. Other factors negatively associated with fertility desire were education (ORadj = 0.30, CI: 0.12-0.74) and number of surviving children (ORadj = 0.28, CI: 0.22-0.34).Conclusion: HIV-care and treatment programmes need to pay attention to reproductive concerns, especially among women in second and higher order marriages.