Prediction Mortality Rate Due to the Road-Traffic Accidents in Kazakhstan.

BACKGROUND: As a result of the road traffic accidents 1.25 mln. of working-age people die each year on the roads. Frequency of the RTA is 11 times higher in our country than in Europe, that influence on demographic and economic situation in the republic. Creation of the math modeling and prediction of traffic mortality rate in Kazakhstan will allow to develop measure on its decrease. METHODS: Short-term dotted prediction of population mortality level of Kazakhstan was used, in particular - methods of regressive analysis. General prognosis throughout the country up to 2021 was made on the basis of data for 1999-2018. The more relevant method for prediction is exponential function taking into account the features of mortality rate level trend. RESULTS: Prediction of traffic fatalities without division into the age-related groups for 2019 is 2132±181 case with a probability 2/3. Expected levels for 2020-2027 cases, for 2021-1927 cases.Annual mortality decrease rate according to the 0-19 age-related at an average is 6.4% among men and 5.8% among women, according to age group as a whole - by 6.2%; from 20 up to 64 age related group - 5.1 % on all population category; older 65 age -group is by 2.2 %, 3.7 % among men, 2.9% among women as a whole. CONCLUSION: In the foreseeable future the number of traffic deaths in Kazakhstan will tend to decrease at a slower pace. Mortality rates due to road traffic accidents among working-age men will be 3 times higher than women in this age group.

Thyroid Cancer in Kazakhstan: Component Analysis of Incidence Dynamics.

Background: The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) reports that 567,000 new cases of thyroid cancer (TC) were registered in the world in 2018, and the age-standardized incidence rate was 6.7 per 100,000. The Global Cancer Observation forecasts a 35% growth in the number of new cases worldwide by 2040. The number of patients with TC in Kazakhstan is also increasing steadily. This investigation was the first epidemiological study of TC trends by component analysis among the population of Kazakhstan. This paper presents the results of the component analysis of TC incidence trends in Kazakhstan. Methods: The study covers primary data of TC cases (ICD 10 ­ C73) registered throughout Kazakhstan from 2009 to 2018. TC incidence trends were evaluated using component analysis according to the methodological recommendations. Results: 5,559 new TC cases were registered during the 10-year study period. The average age of patients was 52.0±0.2 years, the average annual age-standardized rate in 2009-2018 was 3.3±0.20/0000, with a constant upward trend (Т=+6.6%). According to the component analysis results, the increase in incidence was mainly due to the combined effect of the two factors: the increased disease risk (ΔR=+61.7%), and the population growth (ΔP=+15.4%). Conclusion: The noted increase in incidence was mainly caused by the changes in risk factors, such as the worsening environmental aspects and the increase in detection of clinically non-manifesting cases. The results of the study shall be taken into account when planning anticancer activities for TC.

Breast Cancer in Megapolises of Kazakhstan: Epidemiological Assessment of Incidence and Mortality.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer is the most common malignant disease among the female population of Kazakhstan like in many developed countries of the world (Canada, UK, US, Western Europe), and it accounts for every 5th tumor. We aimed to assess the epidemiological aspects of breast cancer incidence and mortality among Almaty and Astana (Now Nur-Sultan), Kazakhstan residents in 2009-2018. METHODS: A retrospective study using modern descriptive and analytical methods of epidemiology was conducted to evaluate the breast cancer incidence and mortality in megapolises of Kazakhstan. RESULTS: The average annual age-standardized incidence rate of breast cancer amounted to 61.9 0 0000 (95% CI=56.2-67.6) in Almaty and 61.2 0 0000 (95% CI=56.765.7) in Astana. The average age-standardized mortality was 19.2 0 0000 (95% CI=17.3-21.1) in Almaty and 19.3 0 0000 (95% CI=17.1-21.4) in Astana. The standardized incidence in the megapolises tended to increase (Tgr=+0.8% in Almaty and Tgr=+1.4% in Astana), while the mortality was decreasing (Tdec=-4.2% in Almaty and Tdec=-1.1% in Astana). According to the component analysis, the growth in the number of breast cancer cases was due to a population increase (ΔP=+130.4% in Almaty and ΔP=+93.2% in Astana), with a notable decrease of factors related to the risk of getting sick (ΔR=-27.9% in Almaty, ΔR=-6.1% in Astana). CONCLUSION: This is the first epidemiological study to assess the changes in incidence and mortality from breast cancer in megapolises of Kazakhstan because of screening. The results of this study can be used to improve the government program to combat breast cancer.

Age and Spatial Peculiarities of Non-neoplastic Diseases of the Skin and Subcutaneous Tissue in Kazakhstan, 2003-2015.

BACKGROUND: Arrangement of effective management aimed at improving dermatological services and consistent care of patients with skin diseases depends on understanding the epidemiological situation. METHODS: This retrospective study presents an epidemiological assessment of non-neoplastic skin and subcutaneous tissue diseases in Kazakhstan registered in 2003-2015. RESULTS: The yearly incidence rate of the diseases among the whole population was in average 3,341.8±121.1 per 100000 population. This represents 4835.0±156.1 for children, 5503.2±141.8 for adolescents and 2646.6±106.7 for adults per 100000 inhabitants. Space and time incidence rate was evaluated according to the administrative division. The overall trend decreased to 3.5% in children to 2.8% in adolescents to 1.9%, and in adults to 3.9%. Considerable variation in rates was seen across the country, with highest rates in East Kazakhstan, Mangystau and Aktobe regions, the lowest - in Atyrau and South-Kazakhstan regions. CONCLUSION: Non-neoplastic diseases of skin and subcutaneous tissue continue to be an urgent public health problem, especially among children in many regions of Kazakhstan.

Malignant tumors of the central nervous system in Kazakhstan: component analysis of incidence dynamics.

The paper presents the incidence rates of malignant tumors of the central nervous system assessed by the component analysis. The data on primary registered cases of malignant tumors of the central nervous system in the country were used as the material of the study for the period from 2004 to 2011. A general trend of increase in the number of patients with malignant tumors of the central nervous system in Kazakhstan was determined and the potential of their increase was evaluated, which can be due to changes in the morbidity risk and age specifics, as well as the increase in population.

Epidemiological assessment of leukemia in Kazakhstan, 2003- 2012.

Cancer is a major health problem facing the entire world, and Kazakhstan is not the exception. The aim of this study was to present an epidemiological assessment of leukemia in the population of Kazakhstan during 2003-2012. This descriptive and retrospective study was based on data obtained from all oncological organizations of the whole country. Age standardized incidence rates per 100,000 population for leukemia were calculated. Totally, 6,741 new cases of leukemia were registered in Kazakhstan during the 10 year period. The mean age of patients with leukemia was 48.5. The ASRs for leukemia among men and women were 5.3 and 3.6, respectively (p<0.001). In conclusion, our results showed a high incidence rate of leukemia in Kazakhstan, especially in the north of the country. The incidence of leukemia was significantly higher in males and increased with age. Determining and controlling important risk factors of leukemia may lead to decrease in its burden.