Estimated glomerular filtration rate and the risk of stroke in individuals with diabetes mellitus and atrial fibrillation insight from a large contemporary population study.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes mellitus (DM) is associated with increased risk of embolic complications in non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). Impaired renal function (IRF) increases the risk of stroke as well, but this finding is not consistent among all studies. Our aim was to assess the incidence rates and risk of ischemic stroke and mortality by baseline Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate (eGFR) levels Among individuals with AF and DM. METHODS: A prospective, historical cohort study using the Clalit Health Services electronic medical records database. Among patients with AF and DM, we compared three groups according to eGFR levels: eGFR ≥ 60, between 30 and 60, and ≤ 30 (mL/min/1.73m2). RESULTS: A total of 17,567 cases were included in the final analysis; of them, 11,013 (62.7%) had eGFR ≥ 60, 4930 (28%) had eGFR between 30 and 60, and 1624 (9.24%) with eGFR ≤ 30. The incidence of stroke per 100 person-years in the three study groups was: 1.88, 2.69, and 3.34, respectively (p < 0.001). IRF was associated with increased risk of stroke in univariate analysis, but not after multivariate adjustment (Adjusted Hazard Ratio (AHR) 0.96 {95%CI; 0.74-1.25} for eGFR 30-60 and 0.96 {95%CI; 0.60-1.55} for eGFR ≤ 30). Mortality per 100 person-years was 10.78, 21.49, and 41.55, respectively (p < 0.001). IRF was associated with increased mortality risk in univariate analysis, as well as in multivariate analysis (AHR 1.08 {95%CI; 0.98-1.18} for eGFR 30-60, and 1.59 {95%CI; 1.37-1.85} for eGFR ≤ 30. CONCLUSION: In patients with NVAF and DM, IRF was not associated with an increased risk of stroke, but severe IRF (eGFR ≤ 30) was associated with increased mortality risk.

Relation of Hemoglobin A1C Levels to Risk of Ischemic Stroke and Mortality in Patients With Diabetes Mellitus and Atrial Fibrillation.

Diabetes mellitus (DM) is associated with an increased risk of complications in atrial fibrillation (AF). This study aimed to assess the incidence and risks of ischemic stroke and mortality according to baseline HbA1c levels in patients with DM and AF. We conducted a cohort study using Clalit Health Services electronic medical records. The study population included all Clalit Health Services members aged ≥25 years, with the first diagnosis of AF between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2016, who had a diagnosis of DM. The risk of stroke and all-cause death were compared according to HbA1c levels at the time of AF diagnosis: <7.0%, between 7% and 9%, and ≥9%. A total of 44,451 patients with DM and AF were identified. The median age was 75 years (interquartile 65 to 83), and 52.5% were women. During a mean follow-up of 38 months, higher levels of HbA1c were associated with an increased risk of stroke with a dose-dependent response when compared with patients with HbA1c <7% (Adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] =1.30 [95% confidence interval 1.10 to 2.05] for levels between 7% and 9% and 1.60 (95% confidence interval 1.25 to 2.03) for HbA1c >9%, even after adjusting for CHA2DS2-Vasc risk factors and use of oral anticoagulants. The risk for overall mortality was significantly higher in the HBA1C >9% group (aHR = 1.17 [1.07 to 1.28]). In conclusion, in this cohort of patients with AF and DM, HbA1c levels were associated with the risk of stroke in a dose-dependent manner even after accounting for other recognized risk factors for stroke.

Early effectiveness of BNT162b2 Covid-19 vaccine in preventing SARS-CoV-2 infection in healthcare personnel in six Israeli hospitals (CoVEHPI).

BACKGROUND: Methodologically rigorous studies on Covid-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) in preventing SARS-CoV-2 infection are critically needed to inform national and global policy on Covid-19 vaccine use. In Israel, healthcare personnel (HCP) were initially prioritized for Covid-19 vaccination, creating an ideal setting to evaluate early real-world VE in a closely monitored population. METHODS: We conducted a prospective study among HCP in 6 hospitals to estimate the effectiveness of the BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 vaccine in preventing SARS-CoV-2 infection. Participants filled out weekly symptom questionnaires, provided weekly nasal specimens, and three serology samples - at enrollment, 30 days and 90 days. We estimated VE against PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection using the Cox Proportional Hazards model and against a combined PCR/serology endpoint using Fisher's exact test. RESULTS: Of the 1567 HCP enrolled between December 27, 2020 and February 15, 2021, 1250 previously uninfected participants were included in the primary analysis; 998 (79.8%) were vaccinated with their first dose prior to or at enrollment, all with Pfizer BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine. There were four PCR-positive events among vaccinated participants, and nine among unvaccinated participants. Adjusted two-dose VE against any PCR-confirmed infection was 94.5% (95% CI: 82.6%-98.2%); adjusted two-dose VE against a combined endpoint of PCR and seroconversion for a 60-day follow-up period was 94.5% (95% CI: 63.0%-99.0%). Five PCR-positive samples from study participants were sequenced; all were alpha variant. CONCLUSIONS: Our prospective VE study of HCP in Israel with rigorous weekly surveillance found very high VE for two doses of Pfizer BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 infection in recently vaccinated HCP during a period of predominant alpha variant circulation. FUNDING: Clalit Health Services.

Pre-Diabetes Increases Stroke Risk in Patients With Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes mellitus (DM) increases the risk of embolism in nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). The association between pre-diabetes and risk of ischemic stroke has not been studied separately in this population. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether pre-diabetes is associated with increased risk of stroke and death in patients with NVAF. METHODS: We conducted a historical cohort study using the Clalit Health Services electronic medical records. The study population included all members aged ≥25 years, with a first diagnosis of NVAF between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2016. We compared 3 groups of individuals: those with pre-diabetes, those with diabetes, and normoglycemic patients. RESULTS: A total of 44,451 cases were identified. The median age was 75 years, and 52.5% were women. During a mean follow-up of 38 months, the incidence rates of stroke (per 100 person-years) were: 1.14 in normoglycemic individuals, 1.40 in those with pre-diabetes, and 2.15 in those with diabetes. In both univariate and multivariate analyses, pre-diabetes was associated with an increased risk of stroke compared with normoglycemic persons (adjusted hazard ratio [adjHR]: 1.19; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.01 to 1.4) even after adjustment for CHA2DS2-Vasc risk factors and use of anticoagulants, while diabetes conferred an even higher risk (vs. normoglycemia (adjHR: 1.56; 95% CI: 1.37 to 1.79). The risk for mortality was higher for individuals with diabetes (adjHR: 1.47; 95% CI: 1.41 to 1.54) but not for those with pre-diabetes (adjHR: 0.98; 95% CI: 0.92 to 1.03). CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort of patients with incident NVAF, pre-diabetes was associated with an increased risk of stroke even after accounting for other recognized risk factors.

Statin Therapy for Primary Prevention in the Elderly and Its Association with New-Onset Diabetes, Cardiovascular Events, and All-Cause Mortality.

PURPOSE: This study assessed associations of the use of statins for primary prevention with cardiovascular outcomes among adults ages ≥70 years. METHODS: In a retrospective population-based cohort study, new users of statins without cardiovascular disease or diabetes mellitus were stratified by ages ≥70 years and <70 years. Using a time-dependent approach, adherence to statins was evaluated according to the proportion of days covered: <25%, 25%-50%, 50%-75%, and ≥75%. We assessed associations of statin therapy with increased risk of new-onset diabetes mellitus and with decreased risks of major adverse cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Of 42,767 new users of statins, 5970 (14%) were ages ≥70 years. The incident rates of major adverse cardiovascular events, all-cause mortality, and new-onset diabetes mellitus in the highest to lowest proportion of days covered categories were 16.9%, 16.7%, and 9.4% and 6.3%, 1.7%, and 9.4%, respectively. For the older group, the adjusted hazard ratios of major adverse cardiovascular events and mortality were significantly decreased for the highest adherence group (proportion of days covered ≥75%): 0.71 (0.57-0.88) and 0.68 (0.54-0.84), respectively. The respective hazard ratios were less favorable for the younger group: 0.80 (0.68-0.93) and 0.74 (0.58-1.03). The risk of new-onset diabetes mellitus was increased for the younger but not the older group. CONCLUSIONS: Statin use for primary prevention was associated with cardiovascular benefit in adults ages ≥70 years without a significant risk for the development of diabetes. These data may support the use of statin therapy for primary prevention in the elderly.

The relationship between inpatient hyperglycaemia and mortality is modified by baseline glycaemic status.

AIMS: There is a well-established association between inpatient hyperglycaemia and mortality. However, evidence is inconsistent regarding whether this association is differential among those with and without type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Most studies are based on convenience samples or are unable to adjust for comorbidities. We examined whether the association between hyperglycaemia and 30-day mortality was modified by baseline glycaemic status. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of 174,671 eligible hospitalized individuals between 2012 and 2015. Thirty-day mortality was assessed during the first inpatient stay up to 30 days post discharge. The adjusted association between hyperglycaemia and mortality was assessed with logistic regression models. Then, four interaction terms were entered into the model to assess if the association between hyperglycaemia and mortality differed by baseline glycaemic status. RESULTS: The multivariate model demonstrated a 2.18-fold risk of mortality associated with hyperglycaemia (odds ratio [OR] [95%CI]: 2.19 [2.08-2.31]). Adding the interaction terms between hyperglycaemia and baseline glycaemic status the ORs of 30-day mortality were 1.41 (1.25-1.60) in non-T2DM status, 1.32 (1.16-1.51) in pre-diabetes status and 1.30 (1.04-1.62) in unscreened status, as compared to T2DM status with hyperglycaemia. CONCLUSIONS: Hyperglycaemia is positively associated with mortality and both those without and with controlled T2DM are at highest risk. These findings may help medical staff identify potential increased risk of mortality upon hospital entry and discharge, and direct further research to assess how hyperglycaemia control and proactive deterioration prevention throughout the entire inpatient stay may prevent adverse outcomes.

Developing a COVID-19 mortality risk prediction model when individual-level data are not available.

At the COVID-19 pandemic onset, when individual-level data of COVID-19 patients were not yet available, there was already a need for risk predictors to support prevention and treatment decisions. Here, we report a hybrid strategy to create such a predictor, combining the development of a baseline severe respiratory infection risk predictor and a post-processing method to calibrate the predictions to reported COVID-19 case-fatality rates. With the accumulation of a COVID-19 patient cohort, this predictor is validated to have good discrimination (area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve of 0.943) and calibration (markedly improved compared to that of the baseline predictor). At a 5% risk threshold, 15% of patients are marked as high-risk, achieving a sensitivity of 88%. We thus demonstrate that even at the onset of a pandemic, shrouded in epidemiologic fog of war, it is possible to provide a useful risk predictor, now widely used in a large healthcare organization.

Translating clinical trial results into personalized recommendations by considering multiple outcomes and subjective views.

Currently, clinicians rely mostly on population-level treatment effects from RCTs, usually considering the treatment's benefits. This study proposes a process, focused on practical usability, for translating RCT data into personalized treatment recommendations that weighs benefits against harms and integrates subjective perceptions of relative severity. Intensive blood pressure treatment (IBPT) was selected as the test case to demonstrate the suggested process, which was divided into three phases: (1) Prediction models were developed using the Systolic Blood-Pressure Intervention Trial (SPRINT) data for benefits and adverse events of IBPT. The models were externally validated using retrospective Clalit Health Services (CHS) data; (2) Predicted risk reductions and increases from these models were used to create a yes/no IBPT recommendation by calculating a severity-weighted benefit-to-harm ratio; (3) Analysis outputs were summarized in a decision support tool. Based on the individual benefit-to-harm ratios, 62 and 84% of the SPRINT and CHS populations, respectively, would theoretically be recommended IBPT. The original SPRINT trial results of significant decrease in cardiovascular outcomes following IBPT persisted only in the group that received a "yes-treatment" recommendation by the suggested process, while the rate of serious adverse events was slightly higher in the "no-treatment" recommendation group. This process can be used to translate RCT data into individualized recommendations by identifying patients for whom the treatment's benefits outweigh the harms, while considering subjective views of perceived severity of the different outcomes. The proposed approach emphasizes clinical practicality by mimicking physicians' clinical decision-making process and integrating all recommendation outputs into a usable decision support tool.

Childhood methylphenidate adherence as a predictor of antidepressants use during adolescence.

Methylphenidate (MPH) is a common and effective treatment for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), but little is known about the relationship between early childhood intake of MPH and onset of antidepressant treatment during adolescence. The study aimed to examine whether adherence to MPH during early childhood predicts the initiation of antidepressants during adolescence. This is a 12-year historical prospective nationwide cohort study of children enrolled in an integrated care system who were first prescribed MPH between the ages of 6 and 8 years (N = 6830). We tested for an association between their adherence to MPH during early childhood (as indicated by medication possession ratio from MPH onset through the age of twelve) and the likelihood of being prescribed any antidepressant during adolescence (age 13-18). As all country citizens are covered by mandatory health insurance, and full services are provided by one of the four integrated care systems, data regarding patients' diagnoses, prescriptions, and medical purchases are well documented. Logistic regression analysis indicated that those with higher adherence to MPH had a 50% higher risk (95% CI 1.16-1.93) of receiving antidepressants during adolescence when controlling for other comorbid psychiatric conditions and parental use of antidepressants. In this large-scale longitudinal study, MPH adherence during early childhood emerged as a predictor for antidepressant treatment during adolescence, which may reflect increased emotional and behavioral dysregulation in this group. The highly adherent patients are at higher risk and should be clinically monitored more closely, particularly into adolescence.

Association between exposure to desalinated sea water and ischemic heart disease, diabetes mellitus and colorectal cancer; A population-based study in Israel.

BACKGROUND: Drinking water (DW) is an important dietary source of magnesium. Recently, Israel has increased its use of desalinated seawater (DSW) as DW country-wide. Its negligible magnesium content, however, raises concern that consumption of DSW may be associated with hypomagnesemia and increase the risk of ischemic heart disease (IHD), diabetes mellitus (DM), and colorectal cancer (CRC). OBJECTIVES: We tested whether there was a change in incidence of negative health outcomes (IHD, DM, and CRC) following the introduction of DSW supply in a population-based ecologic study in Israel. METHODS: A historical prospective analysis was applied to members aged 25-76 during 2004-2013 of Clalit Health Services (Clalit), the largest healthcare provider in Israel, using its electronic medical record database. Multivariable analyses were adjusted for age, sex, socioeconomic status, smoking status, and body mass index. RESULTS: An increased odds ratio was found for IHD (0.96, 95% CI 0.93-0.99 at baseline and 1.06, 95% CI 1.02-1.11 at the end of the follow-up period), but no time trend was observed. CONCLUSIONS: We found that the risk for IHD increased during the study period. The risks for DM and CRC were unchanged. Long term studies are needed for assessing the risk for CRC due to the long latency. The higher risk for IHD has practical public health implications and raise the need to add magnesium to DSW.

Development and Validation of Diagnostic Criteria for IBD Subtypes Including IBD-unclassified in Children: a Multicentre Study From the Pediatric IBD Porto Group of ESPGHAN.

BACKGROUND: The revised Porto criteria identify subtypes of paediatric inflammatory bowel diseases: ulcerative colitis [UC], atypical UC, inflammatory bowel disease unclassified [IBDU], and Crohn's disease [CD]. Others have proposed another subclassifiction of Crohn's colitis. In continuation of the Porto criteria, we aimed to derive and validate criteria, termed "PIBD-classes," for standardising the classification of the different IBD subtypes. METHODS: This was a multicentre retrospective longitudinal study from 23 centres affiliated with the Port -group of ESPGHAN. Both a hypothesis-driven judgmental approach and mathematical classification and regression tree [CART] modelling were used for creating a diagnostic algorithm. Since small bowel inflammation is easily recognised as CD, we focused here primarily on the phenotype of colitis. RESULTS: In all, 749 IBD children were enrolled: 236 [32%] Crohn's colitis, 272 [36%] UC and 241 [32%] IBDU [age 10.9 ± 3.6 years] with a median follow-up of 2.8 years (interquartile range [IQR] 1.7-4.3). A total of 23 features were clustered in three classes according to their prevalence in UC: six class-1 features [0% prevalence in UC], 12 class-2 features [< 5% prevalence], and five class-3 features [5-10% prevalence]. According to the algorithm, the disease should be classified as UC if no features exist in any of the classes. When at least one feature exists, different combinations classify the disease into atypical UC, IBDU or CD. The algorithm differentiated UC from CD and IBDU with 80% sensitivity (95% confidence interval [CI] 71-88%) and 84% specificity [77-89%], and CD from IBDU and UC with 78% sensitivity [67-87%] and 94% specificity [89-97%]. CONCLUSIONS: The validated PIBD-classes algorithm can adequately classify children with IBD into small bowel CD, colonic CD, IBDU, atypical UC, and UC.