Forecasting the SARS COVID-19 pandemic and critical care resources threshold in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries: population analysis of aggregate data.

OBJECTIVE: To generate cross-national forecasts of COVID-19 trajectories and quantify the associated impact on essential critical care resources for disease management in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. DESIGN: Population-level aggregate analysis. SETTING: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia. METHODS: We applied an extended time-dependent SEICRD compartmental model to predict the flow of people between six states, susceptible-exposed-infected-critical-recovery-death, accounting for community mitigation strategies and the latent period between exposure and infected and contagious states. Then, we used the WHO Adaptt Surge Planning Tool to predict intensive care unit (ICU) and human resources capacity based on predicted daily active and cumulative infections from the SEICRD model. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Predicted COVID-19 infections, deaths, and ICU and human resources capacity for disease management. RESULTS: COVID-19 infections vary daily from 498 per million in Bahrain to over 300 per million in UAE and Qatar, to 9 per million in Saudi Arabia. The cumulative number of deaths varies from 302 per million in Oman to 89 in Qatar. UAE attained its first peak as early as 21 April 2020, whereas Oman had its peak on 29 August 2020. In absolute terms, Saudi Arabia is predicted to have the highest COVID-19 mortality burden, followed by UAE and Oman. The predicted maximum number of COVID-19-infected patients in need of oxygen therapy during the peak of emergency admissions varies between 690 in Bahrain, 1440 in Oman and over 10 000 in Saudi Arabia. CONCLUSION: Although most GCC countries have managed to flatten the epidemiological curve by August 2020, trends since November 2020 show potential increase in new infections. The pandemic is predicted to recede by August 2021, provided the existing infection control measures continue effectively and consistently across all countries. Current health infrastructure including the provision of ICUs and nursing staff seem adequate, but health systems should keep ICUs ready to manage critically ill patients.

The trend of feminization of doctors' workforce in Oman: is it a phenomenon that could rouse the health system?

BACKGROUND: Participation of women in the medical profession over several countries worldwide was increased over the past decades. This paper is a part of ongoing studies aiming at addressing the issue of health workforce feminization among doctors in the Sultanate of Oman as well as exploring the health system readiness in dealing with this phenomenon. METHODS: Literature in addition to reports and records of the Ministry of Health, Oman (MoH), Sultan Qaboos University (SQU) and Oman Medical Specialty Board were reviewed regarding the gender of the doctors and the medical students. RESULTS: Findings regarding the medical students at the SQU showed higher number of females compared to males (64% females in 2015 compared to 54% in 2009). A similar trend was observed regarding the postgraduates as 61.5% of the graduated residents doctors were females. As for active workforce, the MoH 2015 report revealed that female doctors represent 42% of the total doctors compared to 27% in 1990. It increased 4% from 1990 to 2000, doubled to 8% from 2000 to 2010. The proportion of specialized female doctors reached 31% in 2015 compared to 21% in 1990. There were also gender variations among specialities. The proportion of female general practitioners reached 50% in 2015 compared to 30% in 1990 (4% increase every 5 years). CONCLUSIONS: The feminization phenomenon in Oman is increasing and requires more attention in order to assess the health system readiness of meeting the needs and accommodating the females as the main care providers. The trend is expected to have important consequences on future planning, given that women doctors differ from men in how they participate in the workforce. It may also potentially contribute to a shortage in supply due to difference in preferences and consequently affect the skill-mix and productivity. The cultural, social context and dimensions need to be explored and feasible options to be provided for better planning.

Disentangling age-gender interactions associated with risks of fatal and non-fatal road traffic injuries in the Sultanate of Oman.

OBJECTIVE: Road traffic injuries (RTIs) are the leading cause of disability-adjusted life years lost in Oman, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates. Injury prevention strategies often overlook the interaction of individual and behavioural risk factors in assessing the severity of RTI outcomes. We conducted a systematic investigation of the underlying interactive effects of age and gender on the severity of fatal and non-fatal RTI outcomes in the Sultanate of Oman. METHODS: We used the Royal Oman Police national database of road traffic crashes for the period 2010-2014. Our study was based on 35 785 registered incidents: of these, 10.2% fatal injuries, 6.2% serious, 27.3% moderate, 37.3% mild injuries and 19% only vehicle damage but no human injuries. We applied a generalised ordered logit regression to estimate the effect of age and gender on RTI severity, controlling for risk behaviours, personal characteristics, vehicle, road, traffic, environment conditions and geographical location. RESULTS: The most dominant group at risk of all types of RTIs was young male drivers. The probability of severe incapacitating injuries was the highest for drivers aged 25-29 (26.6%) years, whereas the probability of fatal injuries was the highest for those aged 20-24 (26.9%) years. Analysis of three-way interactions of age, gender and causes of crash show that overspeeding was the primary cause of different types of RTIs. In particular, the probability of fatal injuries among male drivers attributed to overspeeding ranged from 3%-6% for those aged 35 years and above to 13.4% and 17.7% for those aged 25-29 years and 20-24 years, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The high burden of severe and fatal RTIs in Oman was primarily attributed to overspeed driving behaviour of young male drivers in the 20-29 years age range. Our findings highlight the critical need for designing early gender-sensitive road safety interventions targeting young male and female drivers.

Diabetes self-management and education of people living with diabetes: a survey in primary health care in Muscat Oman.

BACKGROUND: Although the prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Oman is high and rising, information on how people were self-managing their disease has been lacking. The objective of this study was therefore to assess diabetes self-management and education (DSME) among people living with type 2 diabetes in Oman. METHODS: A questionnaire survey was conducted in public primary health care centres in Muscat. Diabetes self-management and education was assessed by asking how patients recognized and responded to hypo- and hyperglycaemia, and if they had developed strategies to maintain stable blood glucose levels. Patients' demographic information, self-treatment behaviours, awareness of potential long-term complications, and attitudes concerning diabetes management were also recorded. Associations between these factors and diabetes self-management and education were analysed. RESULTS: In total, 309 patients were surveyed. A quarter (26%, n = 83) were unaware how to recognize hypoglycaemia or respond to it (26%, n = 81). Around half (49%, n = 151), could not recognize hyperglycaemia and more than half could not respond to it (60%, n = 184). Twelve percent (n = 37) of the patients did not have any strategies to stabilize their blood glucose levels. Patients with formal education generally had more diabetes self-management and education than those without (p<0.001), as had patients with longer durations of diabetes (p<0.01). Self-monitoring of blood glucose was practiced by 38% (n = 117) of the patients, and insulin was used by 22% (n = 67), of which about one third independently adjusted dosages. Patients were most often aware of complications concerning loss of vision, renal failure and cardiac problems. Many patients desired further health education. CONCLUSIONS: Many patients displayed dangerous diabetes self-management and education knowledge gaps. The findings suggest a need for improving knowledge transfer to people living with diabetes in the Omani clinical setting.

Home exposure to Arabian incense (bakhour) and asthma symptoms in children: a community survey in two regions in Oman.

BACKGROUND: Incense burning has been reported to adversely affect respiratory health. The aim of this study was to explore whether exposure to bakhour contributes to the prevalence of asthma and/or triggers its symptoms in Omani children by comparing two Omani regions with different prevalence of asthma. METHODS: A randomly selected sample of 10 years old schoolchildren were surveyed using an Arabic version of ISAAC Phase II questionnaires with the addition of questions concerning the use and effect of Arabian incense on asthma symptoms. Current asthma was defined as positive response to wheeze in the past 12 months or positive response to "ever had asthma" together with a positive response to exercise wheeze or night cough in the past 12 months. Simple and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to estimate the effect of bakhour exposure and other variables on current asthma diagnosis and parents' response to the question: "Does exposure to bakhour affect your child breathing?" RESULTS: Of the 2441 surveyed children, 15.4% had current asthma. Bakhour use more than twice a week was three times more likely to affect child breathing compared to no bakhour use (adjusted OR 3.01; 95% CI 2.23-4.08) and this effect was 2.55 times higher in asthmatics (adjusted OR 2.55; 95% CI 1.97-3.31) compared to non-asthmatics. In addition, bakhour caused worsening of wheeze in 38% of the asthmatics, making it the fourth most common trigger factor after dust (49.2%), weather (47.6%) and respiratory tract infections (42.2%). However, there was no significant association between bakhour use and the prevalence of current asthma (adjusted OR 0.87; 95% CI 0.63-1.20). CONCLUSION: Arabian incense burning is a common trigger of wheezing among asthmatic children in Oman. However, it is not associated with the prevalence asthma.

Normal spirometric reference values for Omani adults.

International guidelines recommend the use of population-specific reference values to eliminate the well-recognized influence of ethnic variation on lung function. This study was designed to derive spirometric prediction equations for healthy Omani adults. Forced vital capacity (FVC), forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV(1)), peak expiratory flow rate (PEFR), and forced expiratory flow at 25% to 75% of FVC (FEF(25-75%)) were measured in 419 "healthy" nonsmoking Omani adults (256 men, 163 women), aged 18-65 years. Multiple linear regression analysis was performed for each spirometric parameter against age, height, and weight for men and women separately, and prediction equations for all the above parameters were derived and compared with values derived using equations published from other populations. All measured spirometric parameters increased with height and decreased with age, and they were all significantly higher in men. In contrast, FEV(1)/FVC% values decreased with height and increased with age and were higher in women. The predicted normal values of FVC and FEV(1) for our subjects using the derived equations were lower by 7-17% compared with respective Caucasian values, with smaller difference in the predicted values of PEFR, FEV(1)/FVC%, and FEF(25-75%). This report presents previously unavailable spirometric reference equations for the Omani adults. Our findings highlight the need to use reference values based on updated data derived from relevant populations.

Trends in asthma prevalence and severity in Omani schoolchildren: comparison between ISAAC phases I and III.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: This study evaluated changes in the prevalence of asthma symptoms and asthma severity in Omani school children over time. METHODS: Two cross-sectional surveys, in 1995 and 2001, were conducted as part of the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Children on Omani schoolchildren in two different age groups (6-7 and 13-14 years). RESULTS: There were 7067 children surveyed in 1995 (3893 in the younger and 3174 in the older group) and 7879 in 2001 (4126 in the younger and 3753 in the older group). Over the 6 years there was a significant increase in the prevalence of current wheeze 'any wheeze during the past 12 months' (from 7.1% to 8.4%; P = 0.035) in the younger group with no significant change in asthma diagnosis (10.5% vs 10.6%) or any other asthma symptoms. In the older group, all asthma symptoms remained unchanged except speech-limiting wheeze which declined from 4.0% to 2.8% (P = 0.007). In both surveys, more than 60% of current wheezers reported severe asthma symptoms, while only 60% of these reported a diagnosis of asthma. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of both asthma and severe asthma remains high among Omani children. There is significant 'under-diagnosis' and/or 'under-treatment' of asthmatic children which requires urgent evaluation and intervention.

Tuberculosis suspicion and knowledge among private and public general practitioners: Questionnaire Based Study in Oman.

BACKGROUND: Early detection of smear positive TB cases by smear microscopy requires high level of suspicion of TB among primary care physicians. The objective of this study is to measure TB suspicion and knowledge among private and public sector general practitioners using clinical vignette-based survey and structured questionnaire. METHODS: Two questionnaires were distributed to both private and public GPs in Muscat Governorate. One questionnaire assessed demographic information of the respondent and had 10 short clinical vignettes of TB and non-TB cases. The second questionnaire had questions on knowledge of TB, its diagnosis, treatment, follow up and contact screening based on Ministry of Health policy. TB suspicion score and TB Knowledge score were computed and analyzed. RESULTS: A total of 257 GPs participated in the study of which 154 were private GPs. There was a significant difference between private and public GPs in terms of age, sex, duration of practice and nationality. Among all GPs, 37.7% considered TB as one of the three most likely diagnoses in all 5 TB clinical vignettes. Private GPs had statistically significantly lower TB suspicion and TB knowledge scores than public GPs. CONCLUSION: In Oman, GPs appear to have low suspicion and poor knowledge of TB, particularly private GPs. To strengthen TB control program, there is a need to train GPs on TB identification and adopt a Private Public Mix (PPM) strategy for TB control.

Some Risk Factors for Coronary Heart Disease among Omani Males: A matched case-control study.

OBJECTIVES: Evaluation of some of the leading risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD) among males in Oman. METHODS: We conducted a hospital-based pair-wise matched case-control study among Omani CHD patients admitted in the Sultan Qaboos University Hospital and the Royal Hospital located in Muscat, Oman. The cases were matched with an equal number of controls in respect of age and hospital. The information was collected from the cases and controls based on an interview and review of the medical records of the admitted CHD patients. The odds ratios (ORs) were estimated under univariate as well as multivariate situations using conditional multiple binary logistic regression model. RESULTS: The analysis revealed that 74 percent of the cases were of angina pectoris. The majority of the cases (96%) were above 40 years of age. The prevalence of sedentary life style was predominant (88.0%). Hypertension, diabetes, family history of CHD and a sedentary occupation were the most significant risk factors for the development of the disease. The estimated values of the adjusted ORs were found to be 9.98, 2.74, 28.19 and 3.00 respectively (p<0.05). CONCLUSION: Individuals with hypertension, diabetes mellitus, a family history of CHD and with sedentary occupations are to be considered at high risk of developing CHD. Such individuals should be provided with appropriate health education along with close monitoring for symptoms and signs of CHD.

Regional Variation in the Prevalence of Asthma Symptoms among Omani School Children: Comparisons from Two Nationwide Cross-sectional Surveys Six Years Apart.

OBJECTIVES: The International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Children (ISAAC) highlighted the presence of wide variations in asthma prevalence between and within countries. The aim of this study was to determine the changes in the prevalence of asthma and its symptoms across the different regions of Oman. METHODS: Two cross-sectional surveys were conducted as part of ISAAC phases I (1995) and III (2001) in two age groups (6-7 and 13-14 years) from nation-wide samples of Omani school children, with 7,067 participants in 1995 (3,893 young and 3,174 older group) and 7,879 participants in 2001 (4,126 young and 3,753 older group). RESULTS: Over the period of six years, the Sharqiya (Eastern) region continued to have the highest prevalence of self-reported asthma diagnosis and all asthma symptoms in both age groups, with a significant increase in the prevalence of wheeze in the past 12 months (from 8.7% to 13.8%; p=0.002) and asthma diagnosis (from 13.8% to 17.8 %; p=0.046) in the young group, and a significant increase in night cough (from 21.6% to 27.8%; p=0.039) in the older group. All other regions had lower prevalence rates in 1995 in both age groups, and showed either no significant change or a decline in one or two of the self-reported asthma symptoms. The prevalence of asthma diagnosis among wheezy children remained unchanged across all regions. In addition, asthma under-diagnosis remains a problem with only 60% of children with severe wheeze reporting asthma diagnosis in both surveys. CONCLUSION: The geographic variation in the prevalence of self-reported of asthma symptoms among Omani school children persists with further increase in the Sharqiya region. The findings also suggest under-diagnosis and/or poor recognition of asthma which had not improved over time.