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1.
Environ Monit Assess ; 195(10): 1188, 2023 Sep 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37698767

ABSTRACT

In the Awash River basin (Ethiopia), massive urbanization and industrialization, driven by rapid development and human settlement, are detrimental to the environment and human health as pollutants such as heavy metals (HMs) find their way into water bodies without proper treatment. The purpose of this study was to assess the HMs content and pollution sources within the basin. In this context, a total of 205 samples were collected from 21 surface water sampling stations. Heavy metal concentrations were measured using the Perkin Elmer NexION 350 ICP-MS with inductively coupled plasma. Findings demonstrate that high levels of HMs, such as Al, Mn, Mo, As, V, Fe, and Ba were exhibited with the value of 1257 µg/L, 626.8 µg/L, 116.7 µg/L, 61.2 µg/L, 100.5 µg/L, 1082.7 µg/L, and 211.7 µg/L, respectively. Among 20 HMs analyzed, 20% of the parameters within the study area were above the WHO limit for drinking water; Al (157 µg/L), V (100.5 µg/L), Fe (1082.7 µg/L), Mn (626.8 µg/L), and Mo (103.8 µg/L) were exhibited at sites along the river system. Likewise, 57% of water samples showed high values of As at many stations down the river systems. In particular, high HM concentrations seen in the upper Awash are primarily controlled by anthropogenic activities such as untreated industrial, agricultural, and domestic discharges, while the high HM concentrations in the middle Awash samples were likely due to the influence from the Lake Beseka that has high HM concentrations due to geological process. In conclusion, securing potable water for the rapidly increasing population in Addis Ababa and in the watersheds of Awash is unsafe to sustain the environment and the human health.


Subject(s)
Arsenic , Metals, Heavy , Humans , Molybdenum , Anthropogenic Effects , Lakes , Rivers , Ethiopia , Environmental Monitoring , Water
2.
Heliyon ; 9(5): e15832, 2023 May.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37215855

ABSTRACT

Increasing urbanization and industrialization are impacting on water quality globally. In the Awash River basin, Ethiopia, these drivers are impacting on water quality with further impacts created due to changes in water management releasing geogenic contaminants. The resulting water quality has potential to cause significant ecological and human health impacts. The physicochemical and heavy metals saptio-temporal variability and their associated risks to human health and ecology were assessed across twenty sampling stations in the Awash River basin. Over twenty-two physicochemical and ten heavy metals parameters were analyzed using different instruments including inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometer (ICP-MS). Elevated levels of heavy metals (As, V, Mo, Mn, and Fe) were detected in the surface water, surpassing the drinking water quality standards set by the World Health Organization (WHO). Seasonal variation was evident with peak concentration of As, Ni, Hg, and Cr were recorded in the dry season. A water quality index, hazard quotient, hazard index, heavy metal pollution index and heavy metal evaluation index were formulated to assess the potential risks to both human health and the environment. The highest values of heavy metal pollution index (HPI) above the threshold (>100) were observed in stations at Lake Beseka with HPI values ranged from 105 to 177. Similarly, the highest values of the heavy metals evaluation index (HEI) were observed in stations situated at cluster 3. The evaluation of health risk that is not related to cancer through hazard quotient demonstrated that in the case of both dermal and ingestion contact, cluster C3 > C1 > C4 > C2 and C3 > C4 > C2 > C1 were observed in children and adults, respectively. Overall, measures to reduce potential pollution risks must be taken in accordance with the standards in the river basin. Nevertheless, further research on the toxicity of heavy metals that pose risks to human health is also necessary.

3.
Biol Trace Elem Res ; 201(2): 577-591, 2023 Feb.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35233714

ABSTRACT

The Akaki catchment in Ethiopia is home to Addis Ababa and about five million people. Its watercourses receive a variety of wastes released by the residents and industries. River water is being used for irrigation, livestock watering, and other domestic purposes. This study tested the hypothesis that the river pollution would be reflected in higher levels of trace elements in the nails of residents living in Akaki-Kality Sub-City in the downstream, as compared to those living in Gullele Sub-City in the upstream of the Akaki catchment. Samples were taken and subsequently analysed for metals using inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry (ICP-OES). The mean concentrations of Fe, Zn, Cu, Mn, Ni, Cr, Pb, and As in nails from Akaki-Kality were 488 ± 49, 106 ± 10, 5.2 ± 0.3, 13 ± 1.5, 11 ± 8, 2.2 ± 0.3, 0.09 ± 0.01, and 0.16 ± 0.01 µg/g, respectively. Likewise, the concentrations of Fe, Zn, Cu, Mn, Ni, Cr, Pb, and As in nails from Gullele were 1035 ± 135, 251 ± 10, 6.6 ± 0.4, 31 ± 3.7, 7.4 ± 1.7, 2.0 ± 0.3, 0.63 ± 0.01, and 0.25 ± 0.01 µg/g, respectively. Co and Cd were not detected. Contrary to the initial hypothesis, higher metal levels were found in nails of residents living in the upstream rather than the downstream area of the catchment. In particular, the concentrations of Fe (p = 0.000), Zn (p = 0.01), and Mn (p = 0.000) were significantly elevated in nails from Gullele and also high in comparison with internationally reported values. Besides, geography and social factors, especially education level, correlated to trace metals in nails. Most of the elements were significantly lower in the nails of individuals with a university degree compared to those who were illiterate or only completed primary school.


Subject(s)
Trace Elements , Humans , Trace Elements/analysis , Nails/chemistry , Social Factors , Lead/analysis , Ethiopia , Environmental Monitoring/methods , Geography
4.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int ; 30(9): 22816-22834, 2023 Feb.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36308651

ABSTRACT

The Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been calibrated over a 33-year period to evaluate the Gojeb watershed's hydrological processes, sediment yield with downstream loading to the Gibe III dam, and erosion hotspot locations. Best management practices (BMPs) were run through the model to simulate the effects of watershed intervention scenarios on sediment yield and runoff. Simulation results of BMP intervention were compared with the reference and worst-case scenarios. The simulation of sediment production indicates a clear growing trend. Temporally, the maximum amount of sediment transported out of the watershed is experiential from June to September, and the minimum is in February. A plainly defined similar orientation is observed between precipitation, surface runoff, and sediment load in the landscape. Spatially, the maximum sediment transported out of the watershed is from agricultural landscape units with a slope of over 50%, annual precipitation above 1592 mm, and surface runoff over 151 mm. This signifies that the watershed is under serious threat from erosion due to vegetation loss, steep slope farming, and high surface runoff. Gibe III is a 243-m high roller compacted gravity dam built on the Omo-Gibe River basin in Ethiopia for hydroelectric power and downstream flood control. It is one of Africa's tallest dams, with an annual electric output of 1870 MW that began operation in 2016. Thus, Gibe III could see a loss of storage capacity due to higher-than-expected sedimentation resulting from worsening environmental degradation, which implies that the beneficial uses that depend on this dam - electricity production, regulated irrigation water supply, and flood control - will decline with significant economic losses. Despite that, selected sustainable land management interventions and the application of BMPs to critical erosion-prone hotspot areas can support the overall reduction in total sediment yield and surface runoff.


Subject(s)
Soil , Water , Ethiopia , Agriculture/methods , Water Supply
5.
Sci Total Environ ; 862: 160833, 2023 Mar 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36509281

ABSTRACT

Besides direct water abstraction, natural water scarcity in semi-arid and arid regions may be further exacerbated by human-assisted changes in vegetation composition, including the invasion by non-native plant species. Water abstraction by the invasive tree Prosopis juliflora and by the native Senegalia senegal was compared in the dry Great Rift Valley, Ethiopia. Transpiration rates were quantified using the heat ratio method on six trees each of P. julifora and S. senegal, growing adjacent to each other in the same environment. Water use for P. juliflora trees ranges from 1 to 26 L/day (an average of 4.74 ± 1.97), and that of S. senegal trees from 1 to 38 L/day (an average of 5.48 ± 5.29 during two study years). For both species, soil heat, latent heat, and soil moisture status influenced the rates of sap flow of trees; in addition, water use by P. juliflora trees was related to vapor pressure deficit; the higher the vapor pressure deficit, the higher the water abstraction by P. juliflora. Stand densities of pure P. juliflora and S. senegal were 1200-1600 trees and 400-600 trees per ha, respectively. At the stand scale, P. juliflora consumed approximately 6636 L/day/ha (transpiration: 242 mm per year) and S. senegal stands consumed 2723 L/day/ha (transpiration: 87 mm per year). That is, P. juliflora stands consumed three times more water than S. senegal stands, because of two reasons: (1) P. juliflora stands are denser than S. senegal stands, and denser stands consume more water than less dense stands, and (2) P. juliflora is evergreen and uses water all year-round, while S. senegal sheds its leaves during the peak dry seasons. Our findings suggest that, compared to S. senegal, P. juliflora invasion results in severe impacts on groundwater resources of the drylands of Ethiopia, with direct and indirect consequences to ecosystem services and rural livelihoods.


Subject(s)
Prosopis , Trees , Humans , Ecosystem , Ethiopia , Water , Senegal , Soil , Plant Transpiration
6.
Toxicol Rep ; 9: 1297-1307, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36518430

ABSTRACT

The recent expansion of industries in Addis Ababa is causing additional environmental pollution through wastewater discharges; this is becoming a critical concern. Addis Ababa is located in the upper Awash River basin, and is the main source of industrial pollutants to the river. In this study, physicochemical parameters, nutrients and heavy metal content of wastewaters released from 16 factories, 6 tanneries, 6 beverages and 4 diverse factories, and the Akaki-Kality central wastewater treatment plant in Addis Ababa, were sampled to assess the level of pollutants. Heavy metals were determined using inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectroscopy (ICP-OES). Analysis of nutrients were conducted using Palintest Photometer. Physicochemical characteristics were measured either in situ using a portable micro meter or in the laboratory. Among the measured physicochemical properties, critical issues were observed with electrical conductivity, total dissolved solids and total hardness. Effluents from all of the tanneries, and a number of other factories, were found at levels higher than the maximum limits of various guideline standards. In addition, samples from two of the tanneries (T1 and T5), two beverage factories (B3 and B6) and the central wastewater treatment plant showed elevated concentrations of PO4 3-, which violated the limit (10 mg/l) set by Environmental Protection Agency of Ethiopia (ETHEPA). The two tanneries (T1 and T5) also contained higher SO4 2- than the guideline limit of 1000 mg/l. On the other hand, only one factory, one brewery (B3), exhibited NO3 - above the standard limit of 20 mg/l. Whereas NH3, NH4 +, Cl-, S2- and NO2 - were within the limits in all of the samples. Severe pollution was found in wastewaters from tanneries, where half of them (T1, T5 and T6) contained Cr beyond the maximum limit of 2000 µg/l. Furthermore, a third of the tanneries (T1 and T5) and a beverage factory (B5) contained Fe, Mn, Zn and Cu, higher than the ETHEPA limits of 10000, 5000, 5000 and 2000 µg/l, respectively. Waste disposal from factories without proper treatment can cause great harm to the local people and the environment. Hence, the results of this study call for regulatory bodies to pay close attention to factories, particularly tanneries, in Addis Ababa in implementing adequate treatments of their wastewater discharges.

7.
Toxicol Rep ; 9: 1777-1787, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36518487

ABSTRACT

The objective of this study was to evaluate the association between exposure to heavy metals and oxidative DNA damage among residents living in the potentially more polluted downstream (Akaki-Kality) area of Addis Ababa, in comparison to the upstream area (Gullele). For this, 8-hydroxy-2'-deoxyguanosine (8-OHdG) was used as a biomarker for oxidative DNA damage and heavy metals (Fe, Zn, Mn, Cu, Ni, Cr, Pb, As) as indicators of exposure. The concentrations of heavy metals in nails were determined using inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectroscopy (ICP-OES), and 8-OHdG in urine using Enzyme-Linked with Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA), from 95 residents of the two areas, upstream and downstream. The urinary 8-OHdG concentration was not significantly different (p = 0.05) between the two Sub-Cities, with mean of 18.50 ± 4.37 ng/mg Creatinine in Akaki-Kality and 17.30 ± 5.83 ng/mg Creatinine in Gullele. Also, there were no statistically significant (p = 0.05) difference among the different demographic groups according to gender, age, educational status, body mass index or habit of alcohol consumption. However, the interactions of sex with age, sex with alcohol consumption and alcohol consumption with education were found to affect the urinary 8-OHdG levels of residents of the two Sub-Cities. The mean concentrations (µg/g) of the elements were 488 and 1035 for Fe, 106 and 251 for Zn, 13.0 and 31.2 for Mn, 5.23 and 6.63 for Cu, 11.2 and 7.39 for Ni, 2.23 and 2.02 for Cr, 0.09 and 0.63 for Pb; and 0.16 and 0.25 for As, in nail samples from Akaki-Kality and Gullele, respectively. The determined concentrations of the heavy metals in nails were not significantly associated (p = 0.05) with the corresponding urinary levels of 8-OHdG. Hence, the observed 8-OHdG might have been caused by environmental exposure to toxic substances other than the analyzed heavy metals.

8.
Biometals ; 35(6): 1341-1358, 2022 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36163536

ABSTRACT

The Akaki River in the Upper Awash Basin, which flows through Addis Ababa, the capital city of Ethiopia, has been highly polluted by sewage from factories and residential areas. A population-based cross-sectional study was used to assess the association between trace elements and kidney injury from residents living in polluted areas downstream (Akaki-Kality) versus upstream (Gullele) in Sub-Cities of Addis Ababa. A total of 95 individuals (53 from Akaki-Kality and 42 from Gullele) were included in the study. Kidney injury molecule 1 (KIM-1), lead, arsenic, cadmium, cobalt, lead, manganese, zinc, iron, copper, chromium and nickel were evaluated in residents' urine and nail samples. A large proportion (74%) of the sample population contained KIM-1, including 81% residents in Akaki-Kality and 64% residents in Gullele. KIM-1 was, however, not significantly different (p = 0.05) between the two Sub-Cities, with median of 0.224 ng/mL in Akaki-Kality and 0.152 ng/mL in Gullele. Most of the analyzed elements, except Pb, As, Cd and Co, were found in all of the nail samples, with median (µg/g) in the range of 442‒714 Fe, 97.0‒246 Zn, 11.6‒24.1 Mn, 4.49‒5.85 Cu, 1.46‒1.66 Cr and 1.22‒1.41 Ni. The high incidence of KIM-1 indicates a potential for long term renal tubular damage among residents of the Sub-Cities. The concentrations of the elements in nails were, however, not significantly associated (p = 0.05) with the corresponding levels of KIM-1 in urine. Hence, the observed KIM-1 might be related to exposure to toxic substances or factors other than those included in this study.


Subject(s)
Trace Elements , Humans , Trace Elements/analysis , Cross-Sectional Studies , Nails/chemistry , Environmental Monitoring , Ethiopia/epidemiology , Biomarkers
9.
Environ Monit Assess ; 194(3): 197, 2022 Feb 17.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35175434

ABSTRACT

The Blue Nile Highlands, Ethiopia, has been experiencing serious land degradation, menacing water security, and then human well-being. However, sustainable land management (SLM) may be the way to curb land degradation and improve water security. Therefore, in order to assess benefits after a 5-year catchment restoration effort, we conducted a paired-catchment study to investigate runoff and soil moisture dynamics. First and second catchments were used as control and treated, respectively. After comparing observations gathered from four sites within each of the study catchments, we found that implementing SLM reduced runoff curve numbers by -13.9 to -21.6 units and increased soil moisture storage by 15.6 to 800%, then promoting rapid recovery of the hydrologic functionality of the natural landscapes. We conclude that SLM initiatives can greatly improve water security in the drought-prone Blue Nile Highlands.


Subject(s)
Conservation of Natural Resources , Water , Environmental Monitoring , Humans , Hydrology , Soil , Water Supply
10.
Heliyon ; 8(1): e08676, 2022 Jan.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35028459

ABSTRACT

Lake Malombe is ranked among the most vulnerable inland freshwater shallow lakes in Malawi. The lake has lost over US$79.83 million ecosystem service values from 1999 to 2019 due to rapid population growth, increased poverty, landscape transformation, and over exploitation-hampering the effort to achieve United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), in particular, life underwater (SDG 14), life on land (SDG 15), climate action (SDG 13), and no poverty (SDG 1) and Aichi Biodiversity Targets. In line with the 2021-2030 United Nations' Declaration on massive upscaling of the ecosystems restoration effort, this study applied the contingent valuation method (CVM) and binary logistic regression model to determine the public's willingness to pay (WTP) for ecosystem restoration and the influencing factors. The aim was to integrate science into policy framework to achieve a sustainable flow of ecosystem services (ESs). Qualitative data were collected by employing focus group discussion, key informant interviews, and field observation. Quantitative data were collected using structured questionnaires covering 420 households. The results revealed that 56% of the respondents were willing to pay an average of US$28.42/household/year. These respondents believed that the initiative would improve lake ESs, fish biodiversity, income level, water quality and mitigate climate change impact. Age, gender, literacy, income, social trust, institutional trust, access to extension services, period stay in the area, household distance from the lake, lake ecological dynamics impact, having the hope of reviving the lake health ecological status, perception of having lake ecological restoration program, participation in lake restoration program, access to food from the lake, involved in fishing and Lake Malombe primary livelihood sources significantly (p < 0.05) influenced WTP. This study provides a reference point to policymakers to undertake cost-benefit analysis and develop a practical policy response framework to reverse the situation and achieve United Nations Sustainable Development Goals and Aichi Biodiversity Targets.

11.
Environ Monit Assess ; 193(8): 492, 2021 Jul 14.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34259941

ABSTRACT

Lake Malombe ecosystem provides a vast range of services that are vital for the sustenance of the riparian communities. Understanding land use and land cover (LULC) dynamics, as well as the associated impacts on the multiple ecosystem service value (ESV), is extremely important in decision-making processes and effective implementation of an ecosystem-based management approach. This study analyzed the LULC dynamics from 1989 to 2019. The primary objective of the study was to assess its impact on ecosystem services (ES). The ESV was determined using LULC analysis and established global ESV coefficient. The LULC analysis showed a reduction in forest cover by 84.73% during the study period. Built-up, cultivated land, bare land, shrubs, and grassland increased considerably. Rapid population growth, climate change, government policy conflicts, and poverty were identified as the most important drivers of LULC dynamics. Based on ESVs estimations, the ES changes instigated by LULC dynamics in the study area result in an average loss of US$45.58 million during the study period. Within the same period, the lake fishery also recorded a net loss of US$8.63 million. The highest net loss of US$79.832 million was recorded from 1999 to 2019 due to increased loss of forest, a decrease in water bodies and marsh areas. The sensitivity analysis (CS) indicated that our estimates were relatively robust. This study findings provide a piece of empirical evidence that LULC dynamics in the Lake Malombe catchment have led to a significant loss of ESVs, with serious implications for the livelihoods of the local population.


Subject(s)
Ecosystem , Lakes , Conservation of Natural Resources , Environmental Monitoring , Malawi
12.
Environ Manage ; 68(2): 240-261, 2021 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34105015

ABSTRACT

This study was conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of best management practices (BMPs) to reduce soil erosion in Gumara watershed of the Abbay (Upper Blue Nile) Basin using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The model was calibrated (1995-2002) and validated (2003-2007) using the SWAT-CUP based on observed streamflow and sediment yield data at the watershed outlet. The study evaluated four individual BMP Scenarios; namely, filter strips (FS), stone/soil bunds (SSB), grassed waterways (GW) and reforestation of croplands (RC), and three blended BMP Scenarios, which combines individual BMPS of FS and RC (FS & RC), GW and RC (GW & RC), and SSB and GW (SSB & GW). Mean annual sediment yield at the baseline conditions was estimated at 19.7 t ha-1yr-1, which was reduced by 13.7, 30.5, 16.2 and 25.9% in the FS, SSB, GW, and RC Scenarios, respectively at the watershed scale. The highest reduction efficiency of 34% was achieved through the implementations of the SSB & GW Scenario. The GW & RC, and FS & RC Scenarios reduced the baseline sediment yield by 32% and 29.9%, respectively. The study therefore concluded that the combined Scenarios mainly SSB & GW, and GW & RC can be applied to reduce the high soil erosion in the Gumera watershed, and similar agro-ecological watersheds in Ethiopia. In cases where applying the combined scenarios is not possible, the SSB Scenario can yield significant soil erosion reduction.


Subject(s)
Soil , Water , Ethiopia , Soil Erosion , Water Quality
13.
Sci Rep ; 11(1): 2688, 2021 01 29.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33514795

ABSTRACT

Dense impenetrable thickets of invasive trees and shrubs compete with other water users and thus disrupt ecosystem functioning and services. This study assessed water use by the evergreen Prosopis juliflora, one of the dominant invasive tree species in semi-arid and arid ecosystems in the tropical regions of Eastern Africa. The objectives of the study were to (1) analyze the seasonal water use patterns of P. juliflora in various locations in Afar Region, Ethiopia, (2) up-scale the water use from individual tree transpiration and stand evapotranspiration (ET) to the entire invaded area, and 3) estimate the monetary value of water lost due to the invasion. The sap flow rates of individual P. juliflora trees were measured using the heat ratio method while stand ET was quantified using the eddy covariance method. Transpiration by individual trees ranged from 1-36 L/day, with an average of 7 L of water per tree per day. The daily average transpiration of a Prosopis tree was about 3.4 (± 0.5) mm and the daily average ET of a dense Prosopis stand was about 3.7 (± 1.6) mm. Using a fractional cover map of P. juliflora (over an area of 1.18 million ha), water use of P. juliflora in Afar Region was estimated to be approximately 3.1-3.3 billion m3/yr. This volume of water would be sufficient to irrigate about 460,000 ha of cotton or 330,000 ha of sugar cane, the main crops in the area, which would generate an estimated net benefit of approximately US$ 320 million and US$ 470 million per growing season from cotton and sugarcane, respectively. Hence, P. juliflora invasion in the Afar Region has serious impacts on water availability and on the provision of other ecosystem services and ultimately on rural livelihoods.

14.
Sci Total Environ ; 675: 354-366, 2019 Jul 20.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31030142

ABSTRACT

Land use/land cover (LULC) dynamics and the resulting changes in ecosystems, as well as the services they provide, are a consequence of human activities and environmental drivers, such as invasive alien plant species. This study assessed the changes in LULC and ecosystem service values (ESVs) in the Afar National Regional State, Ethiopia, which experiences a rapid invasion by the alien tree Prosopis juliflora (Swartz DC). Landsat satellite data of 1986, 2000 and 2017 were used in Random Forest algorithm to assess LULC changes in the last 31 years, to calculate net changes for different LULC types and the associated changes in ESVs. Kappa accuracies of 88% and higher were obtained for the three LULC classifications. Post-classification change analyses for the period between 1986 and 2017 revealed a positive net change for Prosopis invaded areas, cropland, salt flats, settlements and waterbodies. The rate of Prosopis invasion was estimated at 31,127 ha per year. Negative net changes were found for grassland, bareland, bush-shrub-woodland, and natural forests. According to the local community representatives, the four most important drivers of LULC dynamics were climate change, frequent droughts, invasive species and weak traditional law. Based on two different ESVs estimations, the ecosystem changes caused by LULC changes resulted in an average loss of ESVs in the study area of about US$ 602 million (range US$ 112 to 1091 million) over the last 31 years. With an increase in area by 965,000 ha, Prosopis-invaded land was the highest net change during the study period, followed by grassland (-599,000 ha), bareland (-329,000 ha) and bush-shrub-woodland (-327,000 ha). Our study provides evidence that LULC changes in the Afar Region have led to a significant loss in ESVs, with serious consequences for the livelihoods of the rural people.


Subject(s)
Conservation of Natural Resources , Environmental Monitoring , Introduced Species , Prosopis/growth & development , Biodiversity , Ecosystem , Ethiopia
15.
Sci Rep ; 9(1): 1576, 2019 02 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30733452

ABSTRACT

The development of spatially differentiated management strategies against invasive alien plant species requires a detailed understanding of their current distribution and of the level of invasion across the invaded range. The objectives of this study were to estimate the current fractional cover gradient of invasive trees of the genus Prosopis in the Afar Region, Ethiopia, and to identify drivers of its invasion. We used seventeen explanatory variables describing Landsat 8 image reflectance, topography, climate and landscape structures to model the current cover of Prosopis across the invaded range using the random forest (RF) algorithm. Validation of the RF algorithm confirmed high model performance with an accuracy of 92% and a Kappa-coefficient of 0.8. We found that, within 35 years after its introduction, Prosopis has invaded approximately 1.17 million ha at different cover levels in the Afar Region (12.3% of the surface). Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and elevation showed the highest explanatory power among the 17 variables, in terms of both the invader's overall distribution as well as areas with high cover. Villages and linear landscape structures (rivers and roads) were found to be more important drivers of future Prosopis invasion than environmental variables, such as climate and topography, suggesting that Prosopis is likely to continue spreading and increasing in abundance in the case study area if left uncontrolled. We discuss how information on the fractional cover and the drivers of invasion can help in developing spatially-explicit management recommendations against a target invasive plant species.


Subject(s)
Ecosystem , Environment , Introduced Species , Plants , Ethiopia , Geography
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