Complement C3 as a potential drug target in periodontitis: Evidence from the cis-Mendelian randomization approach.

AIM: Evidence from a Phase IIa trial showed that a complement C3-targeted drug reduced gingival inflammation in patients with gingivitis. Using drug-target Mendelian randomization (MR), we investigated whether genetically proxied C3 inhibition alters the risk of periodontitis. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We used multiple 'cis' instruments from the vicinity of the encoding loci of C3. Instrument selection was restricted to the drug target encoding loci (chromosome 19; 6,677,715-6,730,573 (GRCh37/hg19)). We selected three uncorrelated single-nucleotide polymorphisms (rs141552034, rs145406915, rs11569479) that were associated with serum C3 levels (p value <1 × 10-4 ) from a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 5368 European descent individuals. We extracted association statistics from a GWAS of 17,353 clinical periodontitis cases and 28,210 European controls. Wald ratios were combined using inverse-variance weighted meta-analysis to estimate the odds ratio (OR) of the genetically proxied inhibition of C3 in relation to periodontitis. RESULTS: MR analysis revealed that the inhibition of C3 reduces the odds of periodontitis (OR 0.91 per 1 standard deviation reduction in C3; 95% confidence interval 0.87-0.96, p value = .0003). CONCLUSIONS: Findings from our MR analysis suggest a potential protective effect of C3 blockade against periodontitis.

Prognostic models for predicting clinical disease progression, worsening and activity in people with multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic inflammatory disease of the central nervous system that affects millions of people worldwide. The disease course varies greatly across individuals and many disease-modifying treatments with different safety and efficacy profiles have been developed recently. Prognostic models evaluated and shown to be valid in different settings have the potential to support people with MS and their physicians during the decision-making process for treatment or disease/life management, allow stratified and more precise interpretation of interventional trials, and provide insights into disease mechanisms. Many researchers have turned to prognostic models to help predict clinical outcomes in people with MS; however, to our knowledge, no widely accepted prognostic model for MS is being used in clinical practice yet. OBJECTIVES: To identify and summarise multivariable prognostic models, and their validation studies for quantifying the risk of clinical disease progression, worsening, and activity in adults with MS. SEARCH METHODS: We searched MEDLINE, Embase, and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews from January 1996 until July 2021. We also screened the reference lists of included studies and relevant reviews, and references citing the included studies. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included all statistically developed multivariable prognostic models aiming to predict clinical disease progression, worsening, and activity, as measured by disability, relapse, conversion to definite MS, conversion to progressive MS, or a composite of these in adult individuals with MS. We also included any studies evaluating the performance of (i.e. validating) these models. There were no restrictions based on language, data source, timing of prognostication, or timing of outcome. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Pairs of review authors independently screened titles/abstracts and full texts, extracted data using a piloted form based on the Checklist for Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies (CHARMS), assessed risk of bias using the Prediction Model Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST), and assessed reporting deficiencies based on the checklist items in Transparent Reporting of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis (TRIPOD). The characteristics of the included models and their validations are described narratively. We planned to meta-analyse the discrimination and calibration of models with at least three external validations outside the model development study but no model met this criterion. We summarised between-study heterogeneity narratively but again could not perform the planned meta-regression. MAIN RESULTS: We included 57 studies, from which we identified 75 model developments, 15 external validations corresponding to only 12 (16%) of the models, and six author-reported validations. Only two models were externally validated multiple times. None of the identified external validations were performed by researchers independent of those that developed the model. The outcome was related to disease progression in 39 (41%), relapses in 8 (8%), conversion to definite MS in 17 (18%), and conversion to progressive MS in 27 (28%) of the 96 models or validations. The disease and treatment-related characteristics of included participants, and definitions of considered predictors and outcome, were highly heterogeneous amongst the studies. Based on the publication year, we observed an increase in the percent of participants on treatment, diversification of the diagnostic criteria used, an increase in consideration of biomarkers or treatment as predictors, and increased use of machine learning methods over time. Usability and reproducibility All identified models contained at least one predictor requiring the skills of a medical specialist for measurement or assessment. Most of the models (44; 59%) contained predictors that require specialist equipment likely to be absent from primary care or standard hospital settings. Over half (52%) of the developed models were not accompanied by model coefficients, tools, or instructions, which hinders their application, independent validation or reproduction. The data used in model developments were made publicly available or reported to be available on request only in a few studies (two and six, respectively). Risk of bias We rated all but one of the model developments or validations as having high overall risk of bias. The main reason for this was the statistical methods used for the development or evaluation of prognostic models; we rated all but two of the included model developments or validations as having high risk of bias in the analysis domain. None of the model developments that were externally validated or these models' external validations had low risk of bias. There were concerns related to applicability of the models to our research question in over one-third (38%) of the models or their validations. Reporting deficiencies Reporting was poor overall and there was no observable increase in the quality of reporting over time. The items that were unclearly reported or not reported at all for most of the included models or validations were related to sample size justification, blinding of outcome assessors, details of the full model or how to obtain predictions from it, amount of missing data, and treatments received by the participants. Reporting of preferred model performance measures of discrimination and calibration was suboptimal. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: The current evidence is not sufficient for recommending the use of any of the published prognostic prediction models for people with MS in clinical routine today due to lack of independent external validations. The MS prognostic research community should adhere to the current reporting and methodological guidelines and conduct many more state-of-the-art external validation studies for the existing or newly developed models.

Downregulation of interleukin 6 signaling might reduce the risk of periodontitis: a drug target Mendelian randomization study.

Aim: Interleukin 6 (IL-6) is considered to play a role in the dysbiotic host response in the development of periodontitis. While the inhibition of the IL-6 receptor using monoclonal antibodies is a well-established therapy for some diseases, so far, its potential benefit in patients with periodontitis has not been examined. We tested the association of genetically proxied downregulation of IL-6 signaling with periodontitis to explore whether downregulation of IL-6 signaling could represent a viable treatment target for periodontitis. Materials and methods: As proxies for IL-6 signaling downregulation, we selected 52 genetic variants in close vicinity of the gene encoding IL-6 receptor that were associated with lower circulating C-reactive protein (CRP) levels in a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 575 531 participants of European ancestry from the UK Biobank and the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology (CHARGE) consortium. Associations with periodontitis were tested with inverse-variance weighted Mendelian randomization in a study of 17 353 cases and 28 210 controls of European descent in the Gene-Lifestyle Interactions in Dental Endpoints (GLIDE) consortium. In addition, the effect of CRP reduction independent of the IL-6 pathway was assessed. Results: Genetically proxied downregulation of IL-6 signaling was associated with lower odds of periodontitis (odds ratio (OR) = 0.81 per 1-unit decrement in log-CRP levels; 95% confidence interval (CI): [0.66;0.99]; P = 0.0497). Genetically proxied reduction of CRP independent of the IL-6 pathway had a similar effect (OR = 0.81; 95% CI: [0.68; 0.98]; P = 0.0296). Conclusion: In conclusion, genetically proxied downregulation of IL-6 signaling was associated with lower odds of periodontitis and CRP might be a causal target for the effect of IL-6 on the risk of periodontitis.

Optimizing a Diagnostic Model of Periodontitis by Using Targeted Proteomics.

Periodontitis (PD), a widespread chronic infectious disease, compromises oral health and is associated with various systemic conditions and hematological alterations. Yet, to date, it is not clear whether serum protein profiling improves the assessment of PD. We collected general health data, performed dental examinations, and generated serum protein profiles using novel Proximity Extension Assay technology for 654 participants of the Bialystok PLUS study. To evaluate the incremental benefit of proteomics, we constructed two logistic regression models assessing the risk of having PD according to the CDC/AAP definition; the first one contained established PD predictors, and in addition, the second one was enhanced by extensive protein information. We then compared both models in terms of overall fit, discrimination, and calibration. For internal model validation, we performed bootstrap resampling (n = 2000). We identified 14 proteins, which improved the global fit and discrimination of a model of established PD risk factors, while maintaining reasonable calibration (area under the curve 0.82 vs 0.86; P < 0.001). Our results suggest that proteomic technologies offer an interesting advancement in the goal of finding easy-to-use and scalable diagnostic applications for PD that do not require direct examination of the periodontium.

Inhibition of tumor necrosis factor receptor 1 and the risk of periodontitis.

Aim: To investigate the effect of genetically proxied inhibition of tumor necrosis factor receptor 1 (TNFR1) on the risk of periodontitis. Materials and methods: Genetic instruments were selected from the vicinity of TNFR superfamily member 1A (TNFRSF1A) gene (chromosome 12; base pairs 6,437,923-6,451,280 as per GRCh37 assembly) based on their association with C-reactive protein (N= 575,531). Summary statistics of these variants were obtained from a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 17,353 periodontitis cases and 28,210 controls to estimate the effect of TNFR1 inhibition on periodontitis using a fixed-effects inverse method. Results: Considering rs1800693 as an instrument, we found no effect of TNFR1 inhibition on periodontitis risk (Odds ratio (OR) scaled per standard deviation increment in CRP: 1.57, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.38;6.46). Similar results were derived from a secondary analysis that used three variants (rs767455, rs4149570, and rs4149577) to index TNFR1 inhibition. Conclusions: We found no evidence of a potential efficacy of TNFR1 inhibition on periodontitis risk.

Effect of interleukin-17 on periodontitis development: An instrumental variable analysis.

BACKGROUND: Circulating levels of interleukin-17 (IL-17) are associated with the presence and severity of periodontitis. However, whether IL-17 is causal for disease development is unknown. We investigated the effect of genetically proxied IL-17 on periodontitis using instrumental variable analysis. METHODS: We identified 12 genetic variants from genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 7760 European descent individuals, used these variants as instrumental variables for IL-17, and linked them to a GWAS of 17,353 clinical periodontitis cases and 28,210 European controls. Generalized weighted least squares analysis accounted for linkage disequilibrium of variants. RESULTS: We found an inverse association of genetically proxied IL-17 and periodontitis (odds ratio, 0.84; 95% confidence interval: 0.75-0.94; p = 0.003), which was corroborated after sensitivity analysis for horizontal pleiotropy. CONCLUSION: The findings suggest that IL-17 protects against initial periodontitis.

Association between total body bone mineral density and periodontitis: A Mendelian randomization study.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of the study was to examine the association between total body bone mineral density (BMD) and periodontitis using Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis. METHODS AND MATERIALS: We used 81 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with BMD at a p-value of < 5 × 10-8 from a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 66,628 individuals of European descent. The GWAS for periodontitis was derived from a meta-analysis of seven cohort studies that included 17,353 cases and 28,210 controls of European ancestry. RESULTS: MR showed no association between BMD and periodontitis (odds ratio per standard deviation increment in genetically predicted BMD = 1.00; 95% confidence interval: 0.92-1.08). Leave-one-out analyses and pleiotropy-robust methods did not indicate any bias. CONCLUSIONS: The MR study provided no evidence that BMD might be causally linked to periodontitis. Hence it may be concluded as the key finding that BMD depletion does not increase the risk of periodontitis.

Genotype-driven NPC1L1 and PCSK9 inhibition and reduced risk of periodontitis.

AIM: Epidemiological and pre-clinical studies suggest a chemoprotective role of lipid-lowering agents in periodontitis. We tested the association of genetically proxied inhibition of 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl coenzyme A reductase (HMGCR), Niemann-Pick C1-Like 1 (NPC1L1) and proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) with periodontitis. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Genetic variants in HMGCR, NCP1L1 and PCSK9 associated with low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol in a genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analysis (N = 188,578) were used to proxy therapeutic inhibition of HMGCR, NPC1L1 and PCSK9. For these genetic variants, associations with periodontitis were obtained from GWAS of 17,353 cases and 28,210 controls in the GeneLifestyle Interactions in Dental Endpoints consortium. Generalized weighted least squares analysis accounted for linkage disequilibrium of genotypes to derive pooled estimates. RESULTS: While genetically proxied HMGCR inhibition equivalent to 1 mmol/L reduction in LDL was not associated with odds of periodontitis (odds ratio [OR] = 0.92 [95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.73; 1.16]; p = .4905; false discovery rate [FDR] = 0.4905), genetically proxied NPC1L1 (OR = 0.53 [95% CI: 0.35; 0.81]; p = .0038; FDR = 0.0077) and PCSK9 (OR = 0.84 [95% CI: 0.74; 0.95]; p = .0051; FDR = 0.0077) inhibition lowered the odds of periodontitis. CONCLUSIONS: Genetically proxied inhibition of NCP1L1 and PCSK9 was associated with lower odds of periodontitis.

No bidirectional relationship between depression and periodontitis: A genetic correlation and Mendelian randomization study.

Background: Observational and in-vivo research suggested a bidirectional relationship between depression and periodontitis. We estimated the genetic correlation and examined directionality of causation. Methods: The study used summary statistics from published genome wide association studies, with sample sizes ranging from 45,563 to 797,563 individuals of European ancestry. We performed linkage disequilibrium score regression (LDSC) to estimate global correlation and used Heritability Estimation from Summary Statistics (ρ-HESS) to further examine local genetic correlation. Latent Heritable Confounder Mendelian randomization (LHC-MR), Causal Analysis using Summary Effect estimates (CAUSE), and conventional MR approaches assessed bidirectional causation. Results: LDSC observed only weak genetic correlation (rg = 0.06, P-Value = 0.619) between depression and periodontitis. Analysis of local genetic correlation using ρ-HESS did not reveal loci of significant local genetic covariance. LHC-MR, CAUSE and conventional MR models provided no support for bidirectional causation between depression and periodontitis, with odds ratios ranging from 1.00 to 1.06 in either direction. Conclusions: Results do not support shared heritability or a causal connection between depression and periodontitis.

Association between bone turnover markers and periodontitis: A population-based cross-sectional study.

AIM: To examine the associations between bone turnover markers and periodontitis in two cross-sectional population-based studies. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We used data from two independent adult samples (N = 4993), collected within the Study of Health in Pomerania project, to analyse cross-sectional associations of N-procollagen type 1 amino-terminal propeptide (P1NP), C-terminal cross-linking telopeptide, osteocalcin, bone-specific alkaline phosphatase (BAP), fibroblast growth factor 23, wingless-type mouse mammary tumour virus integration site family member 5a (WNT5A), and sclerostin values with periodontitis. Confounder-adjusted gamma and fractional response regression models were applied. RESULTS: Positive associations were found for P1NP with mean pocket probing depth (PPD; eß=1.008 ; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.001-1.015), mean clinical attachment loss (mean CAL; eß=1.027 ; 95% CI: 1.011-1.044), and proportion of sites with bleeding on probing (%BOP; eß=1.055 ; 95% CI: 1.005-1.109). Similar associations were seen for BAP with %BOP ( eß=1.121 ; 95% CI: 1.042-1.205), proportion of sites with PPD ≥4 mm (%PPD4) ( eß=1.080 ; 95% CI: 1.005-1.161), and sclerostin with %BOP ( eß=1.308 ; 95% CI: 1.005-1.704). WNT5A was inversely associated with mean PPD ( eß=0.956 ; 95% CI: 0.920-0.993) and %PPD4 ( eß=0.794 ; 95% CI: 0.642-0.982). CONCLUSIONS: This study revealed scattered associations of P1NP, BAP, WNT5A, and sclerostin with periodontitis, but the results are contradictory in the overall context. Associations reported in previous studies could not be confirmed.

Cannabis use and the risk of periodontitis: A two-sample Mendelian randomization study.

AIM: This study aimed to leverage human genetic data to investigate whether cannabis use causally affects periodontitis. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data were obtained from summary statistics of genome-wide association studies of lifetime cannabis use (N = 184,765), cannabis use disorder (17,068 cases; 357,219 controls), and periodontitis (17,353 cases; 28,210 controls). We performed two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis using 6 genetic variants as instrumental variables for lifetime cannabis use and 11 variants as instruments for cannabis use disorder to estimate associations with periodontitis. RESULTS: There was no evidence for an association between genetic liability for lifetime cannabis use or cannabis use disorder with periodontitis. The estimates from the primary analyses were supported in multivariable MR analysis, which considered potential pleiotropic pathways and in weak instrument analyses. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides little evidence to support a detrimental effect of genetic liability for cannabis use on periodontal health.

Cannabis use and obesity-traits: A Mendelian randomization study.

BACKGROUND: Observational studies suggested that cannabis use is associated with decreased body fatness; however, observational studies are subject to confounding, making causal inference and determining the direction of these associations difficult. We performed Mendelian randomization (MR) using summary statistics from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) to investigate the potential causal association of cannabis use and obesity-related traits. METHODS: We used 51 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with lifetime cannabis use at P 1<× 10-5 from a GWAS of 184,765 individuals of European descent and 27 SNPs genome-wide associated with cannabis use disorder as instrumental variables. The GWAS for body mass index (BMI) was derived from a meta-analysis of up to 322,154 individuals, and the GWAS for waist circumference (WC) and waist-hip ratio (WHR) included 210,088 participants. RESULTS: MR showed that lifetime cannabis use (beta = - 0.018, 95 % confidence interval (CI): - 0.05-0.015; P-value = 0.279, Q-value = 0.279) and cannabis use disorder (beta = 0.023, 95 % CI: 0.023-0.045; P-value = 0.034, Q-value = 0.092) were not associated with BMI. Considering WC and WHR as indicators of obesity, our findings did not support a causal association. Leave-one out analyses and pleiotropy-robust methods did not indicate bias in any of the estimates. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the MR study provides little evidence that cannabis influences obesity related traits.

Cannabis Use, Pulmonary Function, and Lung Cancer Susceptibility: A Mendelian Randomization Study.

INTRODUCTION: Because of widespread use, understanding the pulmonary effects of cannabis use is important; but its role independent from tobacco smoking is yet to be elucidated. We used Mendelian randomization (MR) to assess the effect of genetic liability to lifetime cannabis use and cannabis use disorder on pulmonary function and lung cancer. METHODS: We used four single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with lifetime cannabis use (p value <5 × 10-8) from a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 184,765 individuals of European descent from the International Cannabis Consortium, 23andme, and U.K. Biobank as instrumental variables. Seven single nucleotide polymorphisms (p value <5 × 10-8) were selected as instruments for cannabis use disorder from a GWAS meta-analysis of 17,068 European ancestry cases and 357,219 controls of European descent from Psychiatric Genomics Consortium Substance Use Disorders working group, Lundbeck Foundation Initiative for Integrative PsychiatricResearch, and deCode. To assess lung function, GWAS included 79,055 study participants of the SpiroMeta Consortium, and for lung cancer GWAS from the International Lung Cancer Consortium contained 29,266 cases and 56,450 controls. RESULTS: MR revealed that genetic liability to lifetime cannabis use was associated with increased risk of squamous cell carcinoma (OR = 1.22, 95%, confidence interval = 1.07-1.39, p value = 0.003, q value = 0.025). Pleiotropy-robust methods and positive and negative control analyses did not indicate bias in the primary analysis. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this MR analysis suggest evidence for a potential causal association between genetic liability for cannabis use and the risk of squamous cell carcinoma. Triangulating MR and observational studies and addressing orthogonal sources of bias are necessary to confirm this finding.

Cannabis use does not impact on type 2 diabetes: A two-sample Mendelian randomization study.

Cannabis has effects on the insulin/glucose metabolism. As the use of cannabis and the prevalence of type 2 diabetes increase worldwide, it is important to examine the effect of cannabis on the risk of diabetes. We conducted a Mendelian randomization (MR) study by using 19 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) as instrumental variables for lifetime cannabis use and 14 SNPs to instrument cannabis use disorder and linking these to type 2 diabetes risk using genome-wide association study data (lifetime cannabis use [N = 184,765]; cannabis use disorder [2387 cases/48,985 controls], type 2 diabetes [74,124 cases/824,006 controls]). The MR analysis suggested no effect of lifetime cannabis use (inverse-variance weighted odds ratio [95% confidence interval] = 1.00 [0.93-1.09], P value = 0.935) and cannabis use disorder (OR = 1.03 [0.99-1.08]) on type 2 diabetes. Sensitivity analysis to assess potential pleiotropy led to no substantive change in the estimates. This study adds to the evidence base that cannabis use does not play a causal role in type 2 diabetes.