ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Patients with compensated cirrhosis with clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH: HVPG > 10 mm Hg) have a high risk of decompensation. HVPG is, however, an invasive procedure not available in all centers. The present study aims to assess whether metabolomics can improve the capacity of clinical models in predicting clinical outcomes in these compensated patients. APPROACH AND RESULTS: This is a nested study from the PREDESCI cohort (an RCT of nonselective beta-blockers vs. placebo in 201 patients with compensated cirrhosis and CSPH), including 167 patients for whom a blood sample was collected. A targeted metabolomic serum analysis, using ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry, was performed. Metabolites underwent univariate time-to-event cox regression analysis. Top-ranked metabolites were selected using Log-Rank p -value to generate a stepwise cox model. Comparison between models was done using DeLong test. Eighty-two patients with CSPH were randomized to nonselective beta-blockers and 85 to placebo. Thirty-three patients developed the main endpoint (decompensation/liver-related death). The model, including HVPG, Child-Pugh, and treatment received ( HVPG/Clinical model ), had a C-index of 0.748 (CI95% 0.664-0.827). The addition of 2 metabolites, ceramide (d18:1/22:0) and methionine (HVPG/Clinical/Metabolite model), significantly improved the model's performance [C-index of 0.808 (CI95% 0.735-0.882); p =0.032]. The combination of these 2 metabolites together with Child-Pugh and the type of treatment received (Clinical/Metabolite model) had a C-index of 0.785 (CI95% 0.710-0.860), not significantly different from the HVPG-based models including or not metabolites. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with compensated cirrhosis and CSPH, metabolomics improves the capacity of clinical models and achieves similar predictive capacity than models including HVPG.
Subject(s)
Hypertension, Portal , Liver Cirrhosis , Humans , Hypertension, Portal/complications , Adrenergic beta-Antagonists/therapeutic use , Proportional Hazards Models , Portal PressureABSTRACT
UNLABELLED: Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is characterized by acute decompensation (AD) of cirrhosis, organ failure(s), and high 28-day mortality. We investigated whether assessments of patients at specific time points predicted their need for liver transplantation (LT) or the potential futility of their care. We assessed clinical courses of 388 patients who had ACLF at enrollment, from February through September 2011, or during early (28-day) follow-up of the prospective multicenter European Chronic Liver Failure (CLIF) ACLF in Cirrhosis study. We assessed ACLF grades at different time points to define disease resolution, improvement, worsening, or steady or fluctuating course. ACLF resolved or improved in 49.2%, had a steady or fluctuating course in 30.4%, and worsened in 20.4%. The 28-day transplant-free mortality was low-to-moderate (6%-18%) in patients with nonsevere early course (final no ACLF or ACLF-1) and high-to-very high (42%-92%) in those with severe early course (final ACLF-2 or -3) independently of initial grades. Independent predictors of course severity were CLIF Consortium ACLF score (CLIF-C ACLFs) and presence of liver failure (total bilirubin ≥12 mg/dL) at ACLF diagnosis. Eighty-one percent had their final ACLF grade at 1 week, resulting in accurate prediction of short- (28-day) and mid-term (90-day) mortality by ACLF grade at 3-7 days. Among patients that underwent early LT, 75% survived for at least 1 year. Among patients with ≥4 organ failures, or CLIF-C ACLFs >64 at days 3-7 days, and did not undergo LT, mortality was 100% by 28 days. CONCLUSIONS: Assessment of ACLF patients at 3-7 days of the syndrome provides a tool to define the emergency of LT and a rational basis for intensive care discontinuation owing to futility.
