Risk Factors Associated with Mortality in COVID-19 Hospitalized Patients: Data from the Middle East.

This study aimed to assess the risk factors for COVID-19 mortality among hospitalized patients in Jordan. All COVID-19 patients admitted to a tertiary hospital in Jordan from September 20, 2020, to August 8, 2021, were included in this study. Demographics, clinical characteristics, comorbidities, and laboratory results were extracted from the patients' electronic records. Multivariable logistic and machine learning (ML) methods were used to study variable importance. Out of 1,613 COVID-19 patients, 1,004 (62.2%) were discharged from the hospital (survived), while 609 (37.8%) died. Patients who were of elderly age (>65 years) (OR, 2.01; 95% CI, 1.28-3.16), current smokers (OR, 1.61; 95%CI, 1.17-2.23), and had severe or critical illness at admission ((OR, 1.56; 95%CI, 1.05-2.32) (OR, 2.94; 95%CI, 2.02-4.27); respectively), were at higher risk of mortality. Comorbidities including chronic kidney disease (OR, 2.90; 95% CI, 1.90-4.43), deep venous thrombosis (OR, 2.62; 95% CI, 1.08-6.35), malignancy (OR, 2.22; 95% CI, 1.46-3.38), diabetes (OR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.04-1.65), and heart failure (OR, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.02-2.23) were significantly associated with increased risk of mortality. Laboratory abnormalities associated with mortality included hypernatremia (OR, 11.37; 95% CI, 4.33-29.81), elevated aspartate aminotransferase (OR, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.42-2.31), hypoalbuminemia (OR, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.37-2.25), and low platelets level (OR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.05-1.95). Several demographic, clinical, and laboratory risk factors for COVID-19 mortality were identified. This study is the first to examine the risk factors associated with mortality using ML methods in the Middle East. This will contribute to a better understanding of the impact of the disease and improve the outcome of the pandemic worldwide.

Predictors of invasive mechanical ventilation in hospitalized COVID-19 patients: a retrospective study from Jordan.

OBJECTIVES: To identify early indicators for invasive mechanical ventilation utilization among COVID-19 patients. METHODS: This retrospective study evaluated COVID-19 patients who were admitted to hospital from 20 September 2020, to 8 August 2021. Multivariable logistic regression and machine learning (ML) methods were employed to assess variable significance. RESULTS: Among 1,613 confirmed COVID-19 patients, 365 patients (22.6%) received invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV). Factors associated with IMV included older age >65 years (OR,1.46; 95%CI, 1.13-1.89), current smoking status (OR, 1.71; 95%CI, 1.22-2.41), critical disease at admission (OR, 1.97; 95%CI, 1.28-3.03), and chronic kidney disease (OR, 2.07; 95%CI, 1.37-3.13). Laboratory abnormalities that were associated with increased risk for IMV included high leukocyte count (OR, 2.19; 95%CI, 1.68-2.87), low albumin (OR, 1.76; 95%CI, 1.33-2.34) and high AST (OR, 1.71; 95%CI, 1.31-2.22). CONCLUSION: Our study suggests that there are several factors associated with the increased need for IMV among COVID-19 patients. These findings will help in early identification of patients at high risk for IMV and reallocation of hospital resources toward patients who need them the most to improve their outcomes.

Identifying Targets for Antibiotic Use for the Management of Carbapenem-Resistant Acinetobacter baumannii (CRAb) in Hospitals-A Multi-Centre Nonlinear Time-Series Study.

Solutions are needed to inform antimicrobial stewardship (AMS) regarding balancing the access to effective antimicrobials with the need to control antimicrobial resistance. Theoretical and mathematical models suggest a non-linear relationship between antibiotic use and resistance, indicating the existence of thresholds of antibiotic use beyond which resistance would be triggered. It is anticipated that thresholds may vary across populations depending on host, environment, and organism factors. Further research is needed to evaluate thresholds in antibiotic use for a specific pathogen across different settings. The objective of this study is to identify thresholds of population antibiotic use associated with the incidence of carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii (CRAb) across six hospital sites in Oman. The study was an ecological, multi-centre evaluation that involved collecting historical antibiotic use and CRAb incidence over the period from January 2015 to December 2019. By using non-linear time-series analysis, we identified different thresholds in the use of third-generation cephalosporins, piperacillin-tazobactam, aminoglycoside, and fluoroquinolones across participating hospitals. The identification of different thresholds emphasises the need for tailored analysis based on modelling data from each hospital. The determined thresholds can be used to set targets for each hospital AMS, providing a balance between access to these antibiotics versus controlling CRAb incidence.

A modified method for measuring antibiotic use in healthcare settings: implications for antibiotic stewardship and benchmarking.

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether adjusting the denominator of the common hospital antibiotic use measurement unit (defined daily doses/100 bed-days) by including age-adjusted comorbidity score (100 bed-days/age-adjusted comorbidity score) would result in more accurate and meaningful assessment of hospital antibiotic use. METHODS: The association between the monthly sum of age-adjusted comorbidity and monthly antibiotic use was measured using time-series analysis (January 2008 to June 2012). For the purposes of conducting internal benchmarking, two antibiotic usage datasets were constructed, i.e. 2004-07 (first study period) and 2008-11 (second study period). Monthly antibiotic use was normalized per 100 bed-days and per 100 bed-days/age-adjusted comorbidity score. RESULTS: Results showed that antibiotic use had significant positive relationships with the sum of age-adjusted comorbidity score (P = 0.0004). The results also showed that there was a negative relationship between antibiotic use and (i) alcohol-based hand rub use (P = 0.0370) and (ii) clinical pharmacist activity (P = 0.0031). Normalizing antibiotic use per 100 bed-days contributed to a comparative usage rate of 1.31, i.e. the average antibiotic use during the second period was 31% higher than during the first period. However, normalizing antibiotic use per 100 bed-days per age-adjusted comorbidity score resulted in a comparative usage rate of 0.98, i.e. the average antibiotic use was 2% lower in the second study period. Importantly, the latter comparative usage rate is independent of differences in patient density and case mix characteristics between the two studied populations. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed modified antibiotic measure provides an innovative approach to compare variations in antibiotic prescribing while taking account of patient case mix effects.

An evaluation of the impact of antibiotic stewardship on reducing the use of high-risk antibiotics and its effect on the incidence of Clostridium difficile infection in hospital settings.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the impact of a high-risk antibiotic stewardship programme on reducing antibiotic use and on hospital Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) incidence rates. A secondary objective was to present the possible utility of time-series analysis as an antibiotic risk classification tool. METHODS: This was an interventional, retrospective, ecological investigation in a medium-sized hospital over 6.5 years (January 2004 to June 2010). The intervention was the restriction of high-risk antibiotics (second-generation cephalosporins, third-generation cephalosporins, fluoroquinolones and clindamycin). Amoxicillin/clavulanic acid and macrolides were classified as medium-risk antibiotics based on time-series analysis findings and their use was monitored. The intervention was evaluated by segmented regression analysis of interrupted time series. RESULTS: The intervention was associated with a significant change in level of use of high-risk antibiotics (coefficient -17.3, P < 0.0001) and with a borderline significant trend change in their use being reduced by 0.156 defined daily doses/100 bed-days per month (P = 0.0597). The reduction in the use of high-risk antibiotics was associated with a significant change in the incidence trend of CDI (P = 0.0081), i.e. the CDI incidence rate decreased by 0.0047/100 bed-days per month. Analysis showed that variations in the incidence of CDI were affected by the age-adjusted comorbidity index with a lag of 1 month (coefficient 0.137051, P = 0.0182). Significant decreases in slope (coefficient -0.414, P = 0.0309) post-intervention were also observed for the monitored medium-risk antibiotics. CONCLUSIONS: The restriction of the high-risk antibiotics contributed to both a reduction in their use and a reduction in the incidence of CDI in the study site hospital. Time-series analysis can be utilized as a risk classification tool with utility in antibiotic stewardship design and quality improvement programmes.

The impact of antibiotic use on the incidence and resistance pattern of extended-spectrum beta-lactamase-producing bacteria in primary and secondary healthcare settings.

WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN ABOUT THIS SUBJECT: • The emergence and spread of bacteria producing extended-spectrum beta-lactamases (ESBLs) has important therapeutic and epidemiologic implications. • A key target for the establishment of hospital antibiotic stewardship is reducing the occurrence of additional antibiotic resistance. • Further research is needed to accumulate supporting evidence that reducing antibiotic use will result in a parallel reduction in antibiotic resistance. WHAT THIS STUDY ADDS: • Fluoroquinolone restriction reversed ciprofloxacin resistance in primary and secondary healthcare settings. • Fluoroquinolone restriction reduced ESBL-producing bacteria incidence rates in both the primary and secondary healthcare settings. • This study highlights the value of time-series analysis in designing efficient antibiotic stewardship. AIMS: The objective of the present study was to study the relationship between hospital antibiotic use, community antibiotic use and the incidence of extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL)-producing bacteria in hospitals, while assessing the impact of a fluoroquinolone restriction policy on ESBL-producing bacteria incidence rates. METHODS: The study was retrospective and ecological in design. A multivariate autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was built to relate antibiotic use to ESB-producing bacteria incidence rates and resistance patterns over a 5 year period (January 2005-December 2009). RESULTS: Analysis showed that the hospital incidence of ESBLs had a positive relationship with the use of fluoroquinolones in the hospital (coefficient = 0.174, P= 0.02), amoxicillin-clavulanic acid in the community (coefficient = 1.03, P= 0.03) and mean co-morbidity scores for hospitalized patients (coefficient = 2.15, P= 0.03) with various time lags. The fluoroquinolone restriction policy was implemented successfully with the mean use of fluoroquinolones (mainly ciprofloxacin) being reduced from 133 to 17 defined daily doses (DDDs)/1000 bed days (P < 0.001) and from 0.65 to 0.54 DDDs/1000 inhabitants/day (P= 0.0007), in both the hospital and its surrounding community, respectively. This was associated with an improved ciprofloxacin susceptibility in both settings [ciprofloxacin susceptibility being improved from 16% to 28% in the community (P < 0.001)] and with a statistically significant reduction in ESBL-producing bacteria incidence rates. DISCUSSION: This study supports the value of restricting the use of certain antimicrobial classes to control ESBL, and demonstrates the feasibility of reversing resistance patterns post successful antibiotic restriction. The study also highlights the potential value of the time-series analysis in designing efficient antibiotic stewardship.

Quasiexperimental study of the effects of antibiotic use, gastric acid-suppressive agents, and infection control practices on the incidence of Clostridium difficile-associated diarrhea in hospitalized patients.

The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of antimicrobial drug use, gastric acid-suppressive agent use, and infection control practices on the incidence of Clostridium difficile-associated diarrhea (CDAD) in a 426-bed general teaching hospital in Northern Ireland. The study was retrospective and ecological in design. A multivariate autoregressive integrated moving average (time-series analysis) model was built to relate CDAD incidence with antibiotic use, gastric acid-suppressive agent use, and infection control practices within the hospital over a 5-year period (February 2002 to March 2007). The findings of this study showed that temporal variation in CDAD incidence followed temporal variations in expanded-spectrum cephalosporin use (average delay = 2 months; variation of CDAD incidence = 0.01/100 bed-days), broad-spectrum cephalosporin use (average delay = 2 months; variation of CDAD incidence = 0.02/100 bed-days), fluoroquinolone use (average delay = 3 months; variation of CDAD incidence = 0.004/100 bed-days), amoxicillin-clavulanic acid use (average delay = 1 month; variation of CDAD incidence = 0.002/100 bed-days), and macrolide use (average delay = 5 months; variation of CDAD incidence = 0.002/100 bed-days). Temporal relationships were also observed between CDAD incidence and use of histamine-2 receptor antagonists (H2RAs; average delay = 1 month; variation of CDAD incidence = 0.001/100 bed-days). The model explained 78% of the variance in the monthly incidence of CDAD. The findings of this study highlight a temporal relationship between certain classes of antibiotics, H2RAs, and CDAD incidence. The results of this research can help hospitals to set priorities for restricting the use of specific antibiotic classes, based on the size-effect of each class and the delay necessary to observe an effect.